IMO there will be no peace for Israel ... Republished 14 May, 2018

Trump thinks he is a friend of Israel?  He has just screwed Israel out of any chance for a peace agreement with the Palestinians.  Urged on by the arch Zionists like Kushner he came to believe that the status of Jerusalem was the Gordian Knot blocking movement toward a peace settlement.  In the best "Art of the Deal" fashion he has now acted to remove this issue frozen in amber from the negotiating table in the belief that this will restore fluidity to the situation.  IMO he is wrong.  This is not a business deal.

The difficulty is that Al-Quds (The Holy) i.e., Jerusalem  means far, far more to the Muslims than he understands, or that anyone of significance in the US government evidently understands.  Jerusalem is for the Muslims God's Holy City, as holy in its utter possession by God as Mecca and Medina.  Have we missed the fact that the overseas intervention force of the IRGC is called the "Quds" force?  The Palestinian brigade  fighting alongside the SAA is the "Quds Brigade."  Years ago I was in Riyadh with a delegation of rich American Jews, all of them "soft" Zionists.  At the US Embassy they asked if Saudis cared about Jerusalem and were confidently told that the Saudi interest was minimal.  We went to the foreign ministry where I told the  minister, Saud al-Feisal, what had been said at the embassy.   He grew visibly agitated and told us that that was certainly not the case and that his family and government would NEVER abandon the holy city.  On the same trip we were hosted for dinner and a chat by the "Young President's Club" (whatever it was called).  These were  relatively young men who had made a lot of money even by Saudi standards  At the panel discussion after the meal I raised the same point.  Several cried out "what did you say?"  So, I repeated it in Arabic.  There was a moment of silence and then a mighty tirade from around the room as these billionaires made it clear that they would never accept that their government should give up the right of the 'Umma" to Jerusalem.

The Catholic Church believes in patience as a virtue.  It continues to discreetly maintain that the UN Partition of Palestine in 1947 is the only legal status established for Jerusalem.  That partition made Jerusalem an international city under UN control.  The Church will maintain that position while waiting to see if Israel lasts as a country for more than a couple of hundred years.

So now we will see - Will there be violence?  Will the Arab states adjust their relations with regard to Israel?  Will Turkey call for action against Israel at the OIC meeting that Erdogan has called for at mid-month?  Will the Muslims ever trust the US again to act as an honest broker?  Dennis Ross badly damaged our credibility.  Is it completely gone - perhaps forever?  Will the Muslims accept Zionist possession of the Holy City?  We will see.  pl

Comments

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

Inside the cabinet:
Pence argued in the meeting it was past time for the U.S. to recognize the 70-year reality that Jerusalem is the country’s center of government.

Chief of Staff John Kelly and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley also recommended that Trump overturn U.S. policy and publicly acknowledge Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the person said. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis recommended against the move.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/jerusalem-divides-trump-team-and-complicates-kushner-peace-plan

[jdledell]

Pat - You are spot on in your analysis. There is no way the U.S. or Israel can reverse this announcement. The hubris of Israel will make the situation even worse by starting to impose more and more restrictions on Muslim visitation to Haram esh-Sharif. I'm not sure how much violence this announcement will provoke but the resentments it raises will last forever.

Not only is this announcement the death knell of a Palestinian Peace Agreement but at the ground level of Muslim countries, the name of the U.S. is forever tarnished. I don't understand why Trump did this - he gains nothing except maybe a few Jewish votes and potentially loses American influence in countries around the world and kills any chance for his desired peace agreement.

[Matthew]

Col: The most remarkable line in Trump's speech was his statement that we support a two state solution acceptable to both sides. Essentially, we will be happy if both sides to agree to something.

So Palestinian rights have slid to "aspirations" and are now "support when they agree with the Israelis."

I support Trump's final puncturing of the myth of American "good faith" peace brokering. That product is way past its sell-by date.

[Lemur]

I don't think there's much any of these Muslims can do about it. Hezbollah may deter Israel's unilateral extra-territorial hijinks, but it can't existentially threaten Israel yet so long as the Jewish state continues to enjoy American backing. There's definitely enough juice left in the GOP base for another war if Israel's *existence* is called into question. On the democratic side, the J-left will join the war wagon too despite opposition from an increasingly brown base.

Given the intractable nature of the Palestinian-Israeli dispute, only tectonic geopolitical shifts will resolve the problem imo. I don't think this qualifies as such a shift.

[jpb]

"This is nothing less than the recognition of reality." Donald J. Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=889&v=fiOZc_uGigY

Now, the fiction of a two state solution is removed and Jewish State
of Israel will be forced to acknowledge it is an apartheid state as
currently constituted.

Down this road, there maybe a one state solution with Palestinians given full rights of citizenship and participation in the State of Israel.

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

Just saw this you tube song "Al-Quds will always be #Palestinian" from Elijah Magnier site:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U-V6CEXhGg&feature=youtu.be

[Rd]

interesting to see the impact on the illegitimate rulers in the region, (the US allies). Considering ME to be the corner stone of US (flawed)imperial ambitions, perhaps this would be the last nail!!!.. not so much as any perceived violence or such, though there will be the usual smoke and fire. however, this would hopefully impact the efforts on the de-dollorization in trade, specially in the energy sector.

[JerseyJeffersonian]

Col. Lang et al,

Nothing good can or will come of this, either in the short term, or in the long term. The insular stupidity and arrogance on display here is comprehensive (with the exception of Tillerson and Mattis, who will be charged with dealing with the forthcoming consequences, both diplomatic and military).

And judging from the cited report that the Beaver introduced into the discussion, nothing better could be expected if Trump were to resign or were to be successfully impeached, as Pence, that condign idiot, is a True Believer.

Truly, those whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad.

[Will.17128]

As Col. said, embassy move is trivial. Recognition of capital is significant Trump is just pulling the trigger by not signing a waiver. US Congress loaded the gun back in 1995 requiring recognition of Jerusalem as capital unless an annual waiver is signed. US Congress=Israel occupied territory Similar to annual waiver, is the annual certification required for Iran deal.

[SmoothieX12]

What is the most fascinating in all that is this: and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. What is this woman's claim to anything of any substance in foreign policy? Her resume includes such stellar assignments as working for waste management company and clothing firm. At least Pence's "father was a piano mower" (c), I mean Pence can claim some relation to foreign policy by being on a House's International Relations Committee, not that it makes anyone's resume look good, but Nikki is a complete fruit. My impression originally was that Haley was put into UN for two reasons: to throw the bone to neocons, while simultaneously removing this woman from any policy formulation, and to serve as a punching bag for late Vitaly Churkin who didn't live to see that joke of a "diplomat" at the floor in UNSC. Really fascinating to observe all that. It is not a benign fascination, however. It is downright worrisome. Judging by the latest efforts of former Soviet Jews, such as Yakov Kedmi (former chief of Nativ), high-profile pro-Russian performances in major Russian Media, one is forced to make some far reaching conclusions.

[Kooshy]

Colonel thank you for this post and I agree this was foolish thing to do, making Israel definitely not safer but uniting the entire Muslims against her. Colonel, somehow I think, sometimes, you don’t mind to let the commentators on your site make fool of themselves. Cynically, I think in intelligence business, letting people run on wrong analysis has value. Or

[Richardstevenhack]

He did it for one simple reason: He doesn't know what he's doing as President - and he doesn't care as long as he doesn't get impeached or is forced to resign.

He's merely playing at being President and has no clue as to the possible consequences of many of his actions, and is dependent on others to tell him what actions to take, whether political, military, or foreign policy.

It's that simple.

[A.Pols]

"Trump Sabotages the Mideast Peace Process"
Headline in today's online edition of "The New Yorker"
Ain't nuthin to sabotage here. The peace process is a complete fraud, always has been, always will be.
The Catholic Church may have a point about the several century patient wait. Will Israel endure as a functional nation state another century?
The only thing they got going for them is the economic/military levitation of US support. If the United States as an imperial power collapses and it can't maintain its full spectrum dominance (IMO foreordained)the levitation of Israel will end and like a hot air balloon running out of Propane it will return whence it came.
Trump proclaiming Jerusalem as the capital will be a deliberate provocation to the Arabs, but they're already pretty thoroughly provoked anyway and we don't have much credibility to lose.

[Yeah, Right]

jdleddel, in reality he did it for two reasons:
(1) Obama didn't do it and
(2) this guarantees $millions for his re-election campaign.

Not that he will explain it in those terms, of course.

He'll argue that the issue of Jerusalem is intractable, therefore he has taken it off the table so that the negotiations can continue over less contentious issues.

However, that is not what the two parties will take from this announcement.

The Israelis will conclude that whenever an issue becomes intractable then Trump will respond by gifting it to them, ergo, it is in their interests to ensure that ALL the issues are intractable.

The Palestinians will conclude that Trump is a partisan hack and, therefore, will have no interest in any Trump-mediated negotiations.

At which point the Israelis will say (and why not?) that if there is nothing to discuss then you should stick to form and recognize that it is all mine! mine! mine!, right, Mr President?

Even if we accept that Trump is doing this for what he believes to be the best of intentions (I don't, but there ya' go) all he has done is display a breathtaking ability to be taken for a ride by the Israelis.

[Bandolero]

PL

I think Donald Trump's gift was well received in Israel. Quote begin:

... Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu described US President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital as an “historic day” and a “landmark in the history of Jerusalem.” ...

President Reuven Rivlin said following the declaration: President Rivlin said, “I congratulate President Donald Trump on his announcement of US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and on the expected move of the American Embassy to Jerusalem. There is no more fitting or beautiful gift, as we approach 70 years of the State of Israel’s independence.” ...

Quote end. Source: http://www.ejpress.org/article/Netanyahu-praises-historic-decision-as-Trump-recognizes-Jerusalem-as-Israel-s-capital/23740

So, Israel got what it wanted. So, I think, Trump is quite safe against suggestions that it was a "Greek gift" when the backlash comes in.

[Nancy K]

Trump is a puppet for the religious right of both the US and Israel.

[Tidewater]

Tidewater comments,

It seems to me that this will bring on now a resurgence in the authority of the Saudi religious authority, the Ulema. I have been looking to see a comment or fatwa from them, but have not yet found it.

I think Mohammed bin Salman is a psychopath, with the potential of becoming a Caligula, who has gotten himself, as is inevitable with a personality disorder, into very deep trouble. His dalliance with Israel will have to somehow be erased, disappeared, forgotten, though I assume that it and his reckless contempt for the "Commission" (see Lucky Luciano) have already made him a marked man. The three battalions of light infantry of the Royal Guard will scarcely be able to protect him if a group of officers in SANG form an alliance with some alienated princes and roll the dice. I think there will be many in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere who suspect him of apostasy, and if ever some members of the Ulema state as much, it could be all that is needed for a successful coup d'état, though it would have to be after the king has died or abdicated. Neom is dead. The world is turned upside down. Trump has blown it out his arse.

[J]

jdledell , Colonel,

What the Arabs don't want to understand is Israel's unofficial national anthem, namely:
ירושלים של זהב
Jerusalem of Gold was written by Naomi Shemer, the over 2,000 year longing of the people of Israel (בני ישראל } to return to Jerusalem.

Listen to the late Ofra Haza's rendition, listen to the yearning of her heart that cries out in her voice. It is this unified cry by Bnei Israel for the restoration of the Temple, that was torn from them so so many centuries ago. Those Jews who live in Eretz Yisrael, and those in the Diaspora the world over, this yearning that never ceases or goes away, this cry for Jerusalem, Bnei Israel will never give up.

The late Ofra, may she rest in peace:

ירושלים של זהב

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Co7IzOyhw

[SR Wood]

I don't get it. What advantage does the Trumpster (or our country) get by acknowledging Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moving our embassy there? Is he just trying to satisfy the evangelicals and Pence?

[bt]

I haven't posted here in some time, I think I may have been filed in the persona non grata folder.

But honestly, after all the huffing and puffing about feckless Obama and shifty Hillary, when are we going to have an honest conversation about however bad the Democrats are on the Middle East, the "modern" GOP always manages to be worse - they just keep pouring on the gas and throwing more matches.

As others allude, the only silver lining with Trump is that he is such an incompetent that he may force some sort of reckoning with the fact that America has not been an "honest broker" here for a long, long time.

[J]

Here's something for others to enjoy and comprehend, displayed in Motty Steinmetz's songs, the study of Torah that is bound to the heart:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9m5e-oPl5I

[Poul]

What about fall-out in other parts of the Muslim world. I'm thinking about Afghanistan and Pakistan. Or is this mainly a problem for the Arab nations?

[Allen Thomson]

Al-Quds, Ha-Kodesh, both sides have the same view of it, and I don't think either is going to forget that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q-D-%C5%A0

[Origin]

As an element of Jordan's Trusteeship of the holy shrines, it should declare the annexation of the West Bank into Jordan with the Palestinians giving their assent.

[paul]

and its not even a big trump in your face plan.

Jerusalem is 3 cities "Jerusalem" "east Jerusalem" and the tiny old city.

the embassy will be moved to tapiot, a suburb on the southern edge of Jerusalem in a neighborhood that did not exist before the 1990s.

if ever jerusalem would gain its status as an "international City" not ruled by israel or palestine, then it would be highly likely this new embassy would fall within israel and not jerusalem.

seems kind of stupid to me, a half ass measure that is going to fully enrage everyone else.