Will the War Clouds Pass Us By, Or Will the Storm Break? by Alastair Crooke

    

The compulsive hatred of President Putin in élite western circles has surpassed anything witnessed during the Cold War.  Western states have been hyping political hostility in almost every sphere: In Syria, in Ukraine, across the Middle East, in Eurasia, and now, this hatred has leached into the Security Council, leaving it irretrievably polarised -- and paralysed.  This hostility has percolated too, across to all Russia’s allies, contaminating them. It potends – almost inevitably – further sanctions on Russia (and its friends) under the catch-all Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.  But the real question is: Does this collective hysteria portend war?

Ed Curtis reminds us of the almost parabolic escalation of antagonism in recent weeks: 

“This has happened as the Russia-gate claims have fallen to pieces … All across the media spectrum, from the big name corporate stenographers like The New York Times, CNN, National Public Radio, The Washington Post to The Atlantic and Nation magazines and other “leftist” publications such as Mother Jones and Who What Why, the Russia and Putin bashing has become hysterical in tone, joined as it is with an anti-Trump obsession … “Russia Sees Midterm Elections as a Chance to Sow Fresh Discord (NY Times, 2/13), “Russia Strongman [Putin] haspulled off one of the greatest acts of political sabotage in modern history” (The Atlantic, Jan. /Feb. 2018), “Mueller’s Latest Indictment Shows Trump Has Helped Putin Cover Up a Crime” (Mother Jones, 2/16/18), “A Russian Sightseeing Tour For Realists” (whowhatwhy.com, 2/7/18), etc.”

By casting Russia’s interference in the US presidential election as “an attack on American democracy” and thus “an act of war”, the ‘Covert American State’ is saying – implicitly - that just as the act of war at Pearl Harbour brought a retaliatory war upon Japan, so, pari passu, Russia’s effort to subvert America require similar retribution.

Across the Middle East – but especially in Syria – there is ample dry tinder for a conflagration, with incipient or existing conflicts between Turkey and the Kurds; between the Turkish Army and the Syrian Army; between Turkish forces and American forces in Manbij; between Syrian forces and American forces; between American forces and the USAF, and Russian servicemen and Russia’s aerospace forces; between American forces and Iranian forces, and last but not least, between Israel and Syria.

This is one heck of a pile of combustible material.  Plainly any incident amidst such compressed volatility may escalate dangerously.  But this is not the point.  The point is: Does all this Russia hysteria imply that the US is contemplating a war of choice against Russia, or in support of a re-set of the Middle East landscape to Israel’s and Saudi Arabia’s benefit?  Will the US deliberately provoke Russia – by killing Russian servicemen, for example – in order to find pretext for a ‘bloody nose’ military action launched against Russia itself – for responding to the American provocation?

Inadvertent war is a distinct possibility, of course: Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are experiencing domestic leadership crises. Israel may overreach, and America may overreach, too, in its desire to support Israel. Indeed the constant portrayal of the US President as Putin’s puppet is pursued, of course, to taunt Trump into proving the opposite - by authorizing some or other action against Russia – albeit against his better instincts.

 At the Munich Security Conference, PM Netanyahu said:

“For some time I've been warning about this development [Iran’s alleged plan to complete a Shi’i crescent] I’ve made clear in word and deed that Israel has red lines it will enforce. Israel will continue to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence in Syria … We will act without hesitation to defend ourselves. And we will act, if necessary, not just against Iran's proxies that are attacking us, but against Iran itself.” 

And, at the same conference, US National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster warned Saturday against increased Iranian efforts to support its proxies in the Middle East, saying the “time is now” to act against Tehran.

But what did McMaster mean by “time is now to act”?  Is he encouraging Israel to attack Hizbullah or Iranian-linked forces in Syria?  This, almost certainly, would lead to a three or four front war for Israel; yet there are good grounds for believing that the Israeli security establishment does not want to risk a three front war.  Possibly, McMaster was thinking more of full-spectrum hybrid, or COIN war, but not conventional war, especially since Israel cannot, any longer (after the shoot down of its F16), be sure of its air dominance, without which, it cannot expect, or hope, to prevail.

As senior Israeli officials complain about the gap between US rhetoric and action, General Josef Votel, the commander of Centcom, stated explicitly, by way of confirmation of the differing view, at a hearing in Congress on 28 February that, “countering Iran is not one of the coalition missions in Syria”. 

So – back to the Russia hysteria.  I do not believe that Syria is a practical locus for a war of choice either for the United States or Russia.  Both are circumscribed by the realities of Syria.  American forces there are not numerous: they are isolated, and dependent on allies – the Kurds – who are a minority in that part of Syria, who are divided, and who are disliked by the Arab population.  And Russian forces mostly consist of no more than 37 aircraft, and small numbers of Russian advisers and Russian supply lines are extended and vulnerable (in the Bosphorous).

No, the US aim in Syria is limited to denying any political success to either Presidents Putin or Assad. It is pure schadenfreude. The American occupation of north-east Syria is primarily about spitting in the face of Iran – i.e. the pursuit of a COIN war against an American, generational enemy.

And at the same time, at the macro, geo-strategic level, America has precisely been trying to ‘disarm’ Russia’s nuclear defences, and seize the advantage, by withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, and by deliberately surrounding Russia on its borders with anti-ballistic missiles (the ABM treaty provided for only one site on its territory - for each party - that would be protected from missile attack).  The US strategy effectively left Russia naked, in the nuclear sense. And that clearly was the intent. “With the build-up of the global US ABM missile system, the New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) is devaluated, and the strategic balance [was] broken”, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his State of the Nation Address yesterday. 

But then, as ‘the quartet of generals’ (effectively, General Petraeus is a part of the WH trinity of generals), having usurped America’s foreign policy out from the prerogative of the President and into their control, so US defence policy has metamorphosed beyond ‘Cold War’, to something far more aggressive - and dangerous: a precursor to ‘hot war’.

From the original Strategic Statement, casting Russia and China as ‘rivals and competitors’, the subsequent Defense Posture Statement elevated the latter from mere rivals, to ‘revisionist powers’, which is to say, dubbed them as seditionists committed to overturning the global order by military force (the definition of revisionist power).  The Statement placed great power competition above terrorism, as  the primordial threat facing America, and implied that this ‘revisionist’ threat to the American-led global order needed to be met.  American generals complained that their erstwhile, unchallenged global dominance of the skies, and of terrain, was being eroded by Russia acting as ‘arsonist’ [of stability] whilst presenting itself as the “fire-fighter” [in Syria].  America’s air dominance must be reasserted, General Votel implied.

But in a startling upending of the strategic balance and missile encirclement, that America has been seeking to impose on Russia, President Putin announced yesterday that:

“Those who for the past 15 years have been fueling the arms race, seeking advantages over Russia, imposing restrictions and sanctions, which are illegal from the standpoint of international law, in order to hinder our country’s development, particularly in the defence field, must hear this: all that you have been trying to prevent by this policy has happened. Attempts to restrain Russia have failed.” 

The Russian President announced a series of new weapons (including new nuclear-powered missiles invulnerable to any missile defence, hypersonic weapons, and underwater drones, inter alia), that remarkably return the situation to the status quo ante – one of mutually assured destruction (MAD), were NATO to contemplate attacking Russia.

President Putin said that he had repeatedly warned Washington not to deploy ABM missiles around Russia – “Nobody listened to us: [But] Listen now!”, he said:

"Our nuclear doctrine says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack or an attack with other weapons of mass destruction against her or her allies, or a conventional attack against us that threatens the very existence of the state."

"It is my duty to state this: Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, be it small-scale, medium-scale or any other scale, will be treated as a nuclear attack on our country. The response will be instant - and with all the relevant consequences” (emphasis added). 

President Putin underlined that he was not threatening America, nor did Russia have revanchist ambitions.  It was rather Russia simply using the only language that Washington understands.

Putin’s speech, accompanied by visuals of the new Russian weaponry, explains at least something of what has been going on in DC: America’s recent seizure by a madness for spending. The Pentagon must have got (some) wind of Russia’s advances – hence the huge increase in the budget for Defence planned for this year, and another 9% next year, and an unbudgeted commitment to fund a new nuclear submarine fleet, a replacement for the Minuteman missile system, and the development of new nuclear (tactical) weapons (costs unspecified). 

The expense will be prodigious for the US government. But Russia already has stolen the lead, and did this with government debt, as a percentage of nominal GDP, standing at only 12.6%, whereas America debt’s already is at 105% of GDP (before the weapons upgrade has begun).   President Reagan is credited with busting the USSR economically by forcing it into an arms race, but now it is the US that is vulnerable to its mountain of debt – should the US try to reverse Putin’s Spring ‘surprise’, and (if it can), restore its global conventional and nuclear primacy.

So, America has a choice: either to re-set the relationship with Russia (i.e. pursue détente), or, risk running a US borrowing requirement that busts the credibility of the dollar.  The US, culturally, is accustomed to acting militarily ‘where, when and how’ it decides so to do.  It will probably be culturally unable to abstain from this well-practiced habit.  Therefore, a weak dollar and rising debt servicing costs seems inevitable: thus, the rôles seem set for a reversal from the Reagan era. Then it was Russia that overreached, trying to catch up with the US. Now, it may be the vice versa.

The hysteric anti-Russian rhetoric will continue – so deeply embedded is it as an ‘article of faith’ - but it seems likely that America will need to reconsider before further provoking Russia in Syria. If America is now unwilling to ‘bloody Russia’s nose’ over some escalation in Syria, then its isolated and vulnerable military outposts in eastern Syria will loose much of their point, or begin to take casualties, or both.

The question now must be how Russia’s exercise in speaking ‘truth to power’ will play on America’s policy towards North Korea. The US ‘generals’ will not like President Putin’s message, but there is probably little that they can do about it. But North Korea is different. Just as Britain, at its moment of weakness, in the wake of WW2, wanted the world to know that it remained strong (though the signs of its weakened state were evident to all), it sought to demonstrate its continued power through the disastrous Suez Campaign.  Let us hope North Korea does not become America’s ‘Suez moment’.

 

 

Comments

[Pacifca Advocate]

You, apparently, are looking at a very different place than the Russia our host is talking about.

[Sid Finster]

When I lived in Ukraine, it blew the minds of people who had been educated in the Soviet days that I was able to get into university without having first mastered basic subjects like multivariable calculus.

The experience of Ukrainians who grew up under the post-Soviet system is rather different.

[Sid Finster]

I have been all up and down Russia. The whole country is crawling with smart people.

[Charles]

Indicting Seth Rich seems a bit cruel seeing as he is dead.

[TimmyB]

To boil it all down, we seem to have two choices, a reset of our relations with Russia, or an arms race with continued confrontations. In our country, to discover which policy our government will pursue, all one needs to ask is "Which policy will most enrich the already wealthy?" Here, I'm willing to bet the "further enriches arms dealers at public expense" side wins.

[Richardstevenhack]

Indeed.

But indicting some random Russians who will never be extradited is also an exercise in futility. But of course the goal is propaganda, not prosecution.

I know TTG is waiting with baited breath for the indictments, as he will claim this proves the DNC was hacked.

As I said earlier, I laugh now rather than wait for my enjoyment.

[turcopolier]

RICHARDSTEVENHACK

"some random Russians" What's the basis for calling those indicted "random Russians?" do you know something I don't know? pl

[johnf]

Looks as though the next Litvenenko pack of lies is being lined up.

"Critically ill man is former Russian spy

A man who is critically ill after being exposed to an unknown substance in Wiltshire is a Russian national convicted of spying for Britain, the BBC understands.

Sergei Skripal, 66, was granted refuge in the UK following a "spy swap" between the US and Russia in 2010.

He and a woman, 33, were found unconscious on a bench at a shopping centre in Salisbury on Sunday afternoon."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43295134

[Mike from the Galapagos]

although interesting, the article you cited validates some claims which are common talking points in the MSM but have been widely discredited in this blog and other authoritative corners of the independent media, like the so called use of chemical weapons by Damascus, or the so called invasion of Eastern Ukraine by Russian troops. Both are lies.

[Valissa]

A chance to chase some of the war clouds away... in Yemen...

Stand Up For Peace, Call Your Senator https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2018/03/05/stand-up-for-peace-call-your-senator/
During the month of March, the Senate will vote on ending U.S. military involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen, which has plunged Yemen into the world's largest humanitarian crisis.

S.J.Res. 54 would withdraw U.S. armed forces from this war that is now entering its third year. Because Congress has never authorized this war, this legislation is required to come up for a vote on the Senate floor in the coming weeks.
Call Your Senator and Urge Them to Support SJ Res. 54
+1 (202) 899-8938
-----------------

Is there any chance that citizens could prevail on this issue?
How invested is the Borg in the Yemen issue? Has the humanitarian crisis gotten bad enough for the US to address it?

[Richardstevenhack]

Yes. Since I don't believe the Russian government hacked the DNC, then by definition it will likely be some random Russians indicted - either random Russians in the Russian government or random Russians not demonstrably connected to the Russian government.

Either way it will establish nothing about the alleged DNC "hack". It will be interesting to see if the indictment provides any actual evidence or is just another bill of assertions.

[Anna]

Tha basic educational system in Russia is uniform; please check this on your own. The following data is for 2014, when Russia was still considered for evaluation. Since then, the "reviewers" pretend that Russian Federation does not exists. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/13/24-7-wall-st-most-educated-countries/15460733/
"These are the most educated countries in the world.
1) Russian Federation
> Pct. population with tertiary education: 53.5%
> Tertiary education spending per student: $7,424 (the lowest)
More than 53% of Russian adults between the ages of 25 and 64 had some form of higher education in 2012, more than in any other country reviewed by the OECD. The country has reached this exceptional level of attainment despite spending among the least on tertiary education. Russia's tertiary education expenditure was just $7,424 per student in 2010, roughly half the OECD average of $13,957. Russia was also one of just a few countries where education spending declined between 2008 and 2012."

[FourthAndLong]

Goof grief. Graham reminds me of a devious, conniving old time imperial eunuch.

[JW]

'The compulsive hatred of President Putin in élite western circles has surpassed anything witnessed during the Cold War.'

Did that old video interview of Madeleine Albright lusting after Siberian natural resources actually exist, or was it just my imagination ?

[Babak Makkinejad]

Hey, I said that first on an earlier thread; "round up the usual suspects."

[Anna]

The system is rotten at the core: https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/the-politicization-of-the-fbi/
"The Politicization of the FBI," by Joseph E. diGenova, Former U.S. Attorney:
"I spent my early legal career as a federal prosecutor. ... I have never witnessed investigations so fraught with failure to fulfill the basic elements of a criminal probe as those conducted under James Comey. ... A great disservice has been done to the dedicated men and women of the FBI by Comey and his seventh floor henchmen. A grand jury probe is long overdue."

[Robert Bernard]

This site tracks influence operations by Russia:

https://dashboard.securingdemocracy.org/

[johnf]

The Litvenenko II story is the lead headline on every single British newspaper (bat one) this morning.

The BBC website makes the points every other paper makes:

"The parallels are striking with the 2006 case of Alexander Litvinenko.

He, too, was a former Russian intelligence officer who had come to the UK and was taken ill for reasons that were initially unclear.

In that case, it took weeks to establish that the cause was deliberate poisoning, and it took close to a decade before a public inquiry pointed the finger of blame at the Russian state.

Officials are stressing that it is too early this time to speculate on what happened here or why.

The police are not even yet saying a crime has been committed, but if the similarities do firm up and Moscow is once again found to be in the frame there will be questions about what kind of response might be required - and whether enough was done in the past to deter such activity being repeated."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43297638

In the early stories it was said they had been poisoned by some extremely toxic optoid derivative, but this meme now seems to have disappeared from the story. ( know nothing about optoids except that they are a big thing in The States).

[johnf]

Sorry, don't know my optoids from my opioids. Tracked this down from The Guardian:

"Earlier on Monday there were suggestions that fentanyl, a synthetic opioid many times stronger than heroin, which can be fatal in small doses, may have been involved in the incident."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/05/salisbury-incident-critically-ill-man-is-former-russian-spy-sergei-skripal

[Anna]

Kurt Volker, a regular profiteering opportunist of incompetent kind, is propagandizing more "democracy on the march" on the Russian borders. Note that a mass slaughter of civilian population has become a thing du jour for the US State Department: https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/03/trumps-kurt-volker-promotes-ethnic-cleansing-donbass/
During a panel discussion at the Hudson Institute, Special Representative of the US State Department on Ukraine Kurt Volker issued a battle cry for ethnic cleansing in eastern Ukraine: “The so-called Lugansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic are the entities created by Russia with the aim of generating in place of political reality in order to help disguise the role of the Russian Federation and to strengthen the ongoing conflict, and they must be eliminated…”
-- Had this this weasel really believe that his audience was made of late-Alzheimer patients who did not remember the 2014 coup d’etat arranged by the unholy inion of the State Dept, the ziocon Kagans’ clan, and Ukrainian neo-Nazis? The coup has produced the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.
It has become a new normal among the State Dept. senior-level personal to show their lack of dignity and honesty. What kind of family has produced the bloody subhuman filth of Volker?

[SmoothieX12]

Out of all this Litvinenko 2.0 BS may come some good. As much as I am a fan of EPL in general and FC Chelsea in particular, I hope England keeps her word and boycotts WC 2018. English National Team is just plain colorless. This boycott may open the berth for my (and huge swaths of Russian fans) beloved Italian National Team and GiGi Buffon will see his final WC sent-off. This is not a tongue in cheek statement--I really hope so. The moment this possibility was conveyed through English tabloids, the most upvoted post in comments section on one of the major Russia's sports sides was: "Give us Italy!"

https://www.championat.com/football/news-3366391-britanskie-smi-soobschili-o-vozmozhnom-bojkote-sbornoj-anglii-chm-2018.html

Russians love them some of this Italian football.

[Sarah B]

Officials are stressing that it is too early this time to speculate on what happened here or why.

Except maybe for Johnson, who has already opened his big mouth and menaced with withdrawing from the 2018 WC in case it is proven that the Russians did it.

Such a sudden reaction, after the Federal Assembly Address, smells of false flag more than any other thing....

Why the Russians would need to do such a clumsy performance right now? For not to mention the foggy Litvinenko, where their implication was not proved, along with other misterious deaths like that of Mr. Berezovsky, when it is said he was going to collaborate with the Russians after being pardoned by Mr. Putin
Totally at odds with the flamant and lively project Mr. Putin presented before the assembly.

I wonder what David Habakkuk has to say about this....

[johnf]

The tabloids and Boris the Buffoon have been pushing this Remove English Team from World Cup shit, but I can't see any English politician surviving for ten minutes if they actually force this through.

I've refused to watch this Litinvenko II shit on the television but I am assured by friends that the BBC have actually been approaching the story with some scepticism. Perhaps they could be regaining some independence.

[SmoothieX12]

Looks like false alarm, UK's Foreign Ministry rushed to "clarify" Boris' statement that the only boycott will be "diplomatic", whatever that means. No worry, English lads will be received with enthusiasm and, surely, will have their share of Russian fans. I remember Man U fans getting to Rostov last year on UEFA CL preliminaries with FC Rostov, they were absolutely stunned with the level of hospitality and friendliness.

[johnf]

I suspect and hope you're right.

I'm reading Alex Nunn's book on Corbyn and one of the points he makes most convincingly is that the more the MSM overkill a point - Corbyn is a terrorist, Ban English team from Russia - the more people support whatever it is they are attacking.