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29 March 2018

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Jony Kanuck

Colonel,

Where is the off ramp indeed.
If I was advising 'rocket man' & tension was rising, I would advise him to fire two empty missiles into Tokyo. Then just sit back & watch the world economy fall on it's face. If Iran is attacked they don't need my advice to close the Straits of Hormuz; they have all sorts of ways to do that. Oil would instantly hit $200/barrel & the world economy would fall on it's face.
Wall St. has grown another bubble, wanna guess how leveredged some of those big banks are!
The big stick is a really bad idea, even before we think about that nuclear stuff. Off ramps have never looked so good!

Laura

Eric --- Bush, Cheney, and Runsfeld thought there would be flowers and candy. Those of us that support diplomacy over pre-emptive war on false pretenses and fear-mongering (and who studied history and international relations in college) were under NO illusions. I NEVER thought Iraq would love us...unless we had gotten out within 2 months and left their military and security forces in place.

Do NOT blame folks who support diplomacy for the bill of goods sold to justify the Iraq War. EVER!

turcopolier

jony canuck

My WAG is that an attack on Tokyo would be responded to with an all out onslaught on NOKO and that Russian and China would do nothing in the correct belief that the US had enough left over to destroy them. Trump's cast for "the show" would preen and call the bookers on TV. pl

turcopolier

Laura

I am curious as to what you learned from International Relations. It has always seemed an empty subject to me. pl

Eric Newhill

Laura,
The list of people supporting the Iraq was a lot longer than the immediate Bush admin. Most of Congress, including Clinton, passed the buck. I don't know if they actually believed in flowers and candy, but if they didn't, they sure as hell shouldn't have abdicated their responsibility to be the ones to declare war, especially when inspectors were in Iraq busy finding no WMD. These same people get all kinds of hot bothered over SJW issues like the ones I mentioned in my previous comment, but have no critique nor, more appropriately, a mea culpa over the Iraq war they voted for. So, please, spare me the indignation.

BTW Libya was Hillary's war, as they say. More purple thumbs and smiling faces were expected.

I'm just not seeing hordes of diplomacy minded people in DC - I'm sure there must be some, but they must be very quiet.

Fred

International community organizing the Chicago way, or the NYC way, is not statecraft. Judging by what the Chinese and Rusians are doing jointly our diplomatic bear gap is even bigger than our military one. What we need is a guy like this:
https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1953/press.html

Henshaw

How, if at all, do the Mid-term elections figure in any of this?

LondonBob

When I was last in Russia a friend was talking about his job and all the business he was doing in China.

Trump is a high end property developer, the Russians and Chinese have been the saviours of that business in recent years. As a businessman Trump probably frames the rise of China and Russia as economic opportunities, unfortunately I don't think many others in DC see the win win scenario.

Jony Kanuck

Colonel,
Whether the US attempts to flatten NOKO or not, but especially if: That area of Japan/SOKO/China contains most of the busiest shipping routes, harbours & airports in the world. Insurance would skyrocket, just-in-time production would collapse & it would take down Wall st right away. Straits of Hormuz much the same. Any big use of major power military is likely to set off an economic conflagration.
One bad thing the Trumpster has done is put fools in charge of banking regulation: If one of the big boys gets into trouble, it may ignite a chain reaction. I don't believe that the Fed can bail out Wall st. a second time.

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