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17 March 2018

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Babak Makkinejad

Then you would be grieving over fantasies; among Kurds, or Turks, or Spaniards.
Appeasment was not the proper descrpition of the Anglo-French policy. Its true name would have been Destroy-USSR-by-Germany. It just blew on their faces.

Babak Makkinejad

I agree. And politically, no power would endorse Turkish occupation of Syria. Turks will leave.

turcopolier

Babak

Endorsements are nothing. Land is everything. pl

English Outsider

(38)

Thank you for that illuminating reply. More illuminating than expected as regards Germany. I'd believed that it would take considerably more time before discontent rose to the level you indicate. To be honest I'd still expect a much longer time scale but against that I don't see much of the more diverse areas and as you say, the reporting on such subjects is scanty.

One of the reasons I expect a longer time scale is that for many I meet setting out such figures as you set out above would make them uncomfortable and for not a few it would be racist.

As to Russia, I believe you entirely when you say "To my mind Russia´s intervention is wholly defensive in nature." Trouble is, when it's been going on for a while most tend to forget, if they ever knew, who threw the first punch.

On Syria I too wish that this approach could be adopted - "It would be much cheaper to send the people back, buy into Russia´s peace plan in Syria and fund reconstruction." But somehow I don't think mending what we broke is on the neocon agenda.

james

"So, what sort of grade would you give me on this Syria piece? B-? pl"

A+ as always, lol!

fanto

Tom at #38
Your views are very much in agreement with what I find reading Peter Scholl-Latour's "Russland im Zangengriff" (2006). And I agree from my own observations with your assessment of Germany. What will happen to joint French- German revitalization of Europe? I do not believe much will come of that. US will probably try to intervene and will obstruct further strengthening of inter-European cohesion. To this end, Poland may be prodded to become more hostile to Germany, by continued refusal to join the Euro currency. There are too many variables in the current geopolitical situation. As the Russian saying goes 'bez vodki nie rozbieriosh'...

fanto

sorry, missed to add the translation of the last sentence - 'without vodka one cannot understand'

ISL

Kooshy, First is to try and message the generals surrounding Trump, second will be to message the west. Yup, when duck and cover returns, then the message will have been received.

Croesus

I watch no media other than C Span; it reliably megaphones what US gov wants the Public to believe.

This morning Wilson Center (a zionist redoubt) scholar Jeffrey Edmonds explained US-Russia relations
https://www.c-span.org/video/?442636-3/washington-journal-jeffrey-edmonds-discusses-trump-administration-russia-policy
He emphasized (repeated thrice) that "Putin resists the 'International Order'" and did not demur from anything Nikki Haley declaimed at UN about the need for Russia to "abide by the rule of law" and stop protecting Assad, "who gasses his own children."
Edmonds said that military involvement was not a viable option, but his "greatest fear is some mistake, some side-step in shipping lanes:"

"As we're stumbling around in places like Syria, the Russians are pushing back on our ships in international waters . . . My worries are an accident . . . interactions between their ships and our ships . . . Something could slip sideways and you can have some kind of military conflict over an accident."
@38 min

Like most SST readers, I've watched enough people work through media-training protocols to hypothesize that the three messages Edmonds was tasked to convey are:

~ Russia's crime is failing to comply with US dominance over the "international order
(which might, indeed, include participation in OBOR, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-ybBZgN154

tho Israel is also onboard that project -- check the maps:
https://masspointpllc.com/china-one-belt-one-road-us-legal-dominance/
http://www.inss.org.il/publication/china-and-israel-on-the-same-belt-and-road/; )

~ Russia is foiling US illicit intentions over Syria;
~ the event that will trigger the desired military conflict will occur between US and Russian naval vessels in "international waters."

VietnamVet

Colonel,

MAD is back. So is the Cold War. Except, this time Russia and the USA have troops and mercenaries in the same battle zone in combat on opposite sides. The Korea War and Vietnam were dangerous but there were no Soviet Union forces fighting on the ground. What is even more frightening today is the lack of awareness of the risk of a nuclear war and the hysterical scapegoating of Russia. Plus, corporate oligarchs are pushing to dismantle western nation states for a global corporate free trade zone. This has allowed Israel-Firsters and other Tribalists to seize control of government levers of power. If the USA decides to go to war against SAR and Shiite militias to aid Israel or any other reason they think up, all hell will break loose.

kooshy

Yes that's true, a french collage body once told me, the reason we can milk the Americans, is because we are smarter.

FB Ali

English Outsider (@31)

"...Such a lot we don't know..."

If you'd like to know more about Russia, I would suggest a small donation to Inessa S. You can learn more about her website at https://www.patreon.com/inessaS/overview .

As an example, she recently put up on her website a Russian documentary entitled World Order 2018, which is a 1.5 hour interview with Vladimir Putin on recent events.

With sites like SST and Inessa's available on the web, no one can advance the excuse that they don't really know what is going on in the world today.

JamesT

Peter In Toronto wrote:
"American civilian casualties may be entirely acceptable to the Likud Party and its proxies in the US."

I have no doubt that in the event of all out nuclear war Moscow will prioritize Israeli targets. They know that Israel is the senior partner in the US-Israel partnership, and they know that Israel would be far, far less able to absorbe a nuclear strike.

James in Toronto

JamesT

Jony Kanuck

Regarding the nuking of Warsaw - I think you are onto something in that I have been thinking for a long time that in the event of a low scale nuclear war, the side with the most allies is the most vulnerable. Nuking the US or Israel would be madness, but who likes the Romanians. Or as I keep insisting is even better, Saudi Arabian economic assets.

I'm not sure that Warsaw is the best choice - I lived in Poland for a year and the Poles really hate the Russians. I think Putin would want to hit a country that would immediately say "sorry" and renounce its alliance with Washington. Also one that the US would do little to help because they just don't care about them.

The Poles would stay loyal to uncle sam if you nuked three of the cities. UAE, I'm thinking, not so much ...

wisedupearly Ceo

If the Russians succeed in tying America to the Kurds then America will have to kill Turks forcing Erdogan to leave NATO. Russian control over the Bosphorus would be a prize of immense strategic value.

Tom

How long can this last in Germany: no more than one or two more years I believe. Remember Germany looks like one unitary state but is still in many ways two countries. It is a federal state with the representation of the Lander -"Bundesrat"- playing a very important part. Basically a lot like the US senate. There is Berlin (itself divided into East and West) plus 5 Lander of the East and 10 Lander of the West. At the latest Bundestag election in all five Eastern Lander the anti-immigrant and far right AFD came in first or second. The AFD has not been coopted into the German system yet and I don´t think it will be. It is pro Russia, anti intervention and anti - open border. Very much like the ruling parties in all the neighboring post communist countries. The citizens of the East don´t trust "western" media. They don´t read "western" newspapers and don´t watch the German equivalent of the BBC. You can´t scare them with Germany´s Nazi past and you couldn´t bribe them sufficiently to suddenly make them happy with what is happening. All this might not matter to much if there weren´t all these Lander elections on the horizon. First Bavaria in 2018. In neighboring Austria the political equivalent of AFD has just come to power. Bavaria might just be saved for the very last time. But in 2019 there will be elections in four of the five Eastern Lander. And it looks very bad for the ruling coalition. I think they will cling to power by hook or by crook. There will be confrontation between local and federal authorities. Germany will become a lot more chaotic and finally Merkel will fall.
As to the Neocom agenda I am pessimistic as well. But don´t underestimate the pressure in Europe. It is rising and rising...

Thomas

"I do not want the Kurds to be crushed and Turkey to leave NATO. Emotion (Kurds) and rationality (Turkey) say it is impossible to marry the two."

Ideas don't marry, Man does.

A sincere stranger speaks the peace, "listen you two, your continuous feuding is going to spill over to a real effin' mess. So here is the deal, Kurds in Turkey will have Turkish passports, Kurds in Iraq will have Iraqi passports, Kurds in Iran will have Iranian passports, and, last but not least, Syrian Kurds will have Syrian Republic passports."

"Your concerns. issues and grievances will be addressed at the Concert of Country Lines and Conduct when the agreement will be formally reached. Otherwise, you are on your own and as old cultures you should fully understand the many possibilities this entails while sharing the same fate of lose-lose."

Charles

The value of the Bosporus diminishes with each advance of the one belt one road initiative. The Bosporus and the Pillars of Hercules are two cork stoppers of the same old Mackinder and Mahan theories. One Belt One Road is intended to finally put the peripheral nations strategy to rest.
As for the Russia needs Warm Water ports argument, that was true until the invention of the icebreaker technology. Vladivostok, Archangel, Murmansk and St. Petersburg are year round ports now.

Grazhdanochka

I apologise for late Reply, I am not able to Write easily half the Time due to Work. I think it is a bad habit that is responsible.....

I learned some German and as a early Experience with Latin Alphabet - I find I probably took the Lesson of 'All Nouns is Capitalized' to much to Heart.... I notice that worse still, it infects other non Words also and I have no understanding how my Mind chooses which.....

I really need to try get out of that Habit and I do apologize if it makes my writing more difficult or painful to read

mikee

How easy is it to start a nuclear war?

"You (and Almost Everyone You Know) Owe Your Life to This Man."

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/you-and-almost-everyone-you-know-owe-your-life-to-this-man/

ISL

Dear Colonel,

I agree with "more" on the acquiescence.

So I ponder: Strategically, what does Turkey gain by giving up acquired Syrian territory? Since Turkey has weathered a guerrilla Kurdish war on again off again for decades, clearly the Kurds have no say in this. And the SAA is too weak to have a say. Answer: Every reason to keep the territory - even annex it.

Now if Russia was to withdraw its kindness and deny the airspace to Turkey, that would be a game changer.

So what does Russia get in exchange (nations are not kind!)? The only guess I can come up with is Incirlik (or at least denial of Incirlik to the NATO). That would be payback for Ukraine in a big way.

The S-400 sale could be a sign. Will watch closely for the next indicator.

daniel

@ Babak Makkinejad, your 18 March 2018 at 03:11 PM

Sorry for late. You know english is not my native language.

1- I’am grieving for Kurds and others in Afrin. Pacific and no harm to Turkey, still they are crushed in the hand of extremists. Bloody war will last. I hope we in Europe don’t pay the price of cowardice. We had about 350 deads and 500 casualties by extremists, in UK, Belgique and France.

2- I disagree partially. Some men knew and said USSR is our ally against Nazi. For example, Churchill a true anti-soviet. In France a few right and left MP said same things. Some men read Mein Kampf and knew Germany is first enemy, Stalin only second behind. Knowing Germany was their job, all military men , journalists and very few MP. They knew what Nazis stand for. They knew Nazi want first to crush France. They were not heard.

In France, appeasement was a weak politic, by weak minds and nerves, by incompetent men guided by fears, fear of the people, fear of war, fear of their shadow in the sun. They ignored immediate danger and invented imaginary or distant dangers. Anyway, make a choice was beyond their abilities. They all were veterans of WW1 and traumatized by war experience.
[They dragged the country into war in reverse. But it's beyond the current matter.]

When France defeated , all true men and women made their duty. Communist fighters, after June 1941, had high fighting spirit. Same as spanish Communist and Anarchist refugees in France, after their betrayal by this country and UK.

[ Yes, it’s all over now. Just a partial and perhaps biased history. But not Kurds in Syria and Ankara satrape...]

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