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17 March 2018

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Charles

Colonel,
Is the American attempt to bifurcate Syria an attempt to impede the OBOR initiative that China is implementing as well as an attempt to impede Russian oil and gas pipelines from avoiding US "friends" in eastern Europe?
I can understand the Turkish animosity toward the Kurds and their reciprocity, is that a separate issue.
General S. Butler wrote that war is an economic activity ( a racket he called it ).

turcopolier

Charles

Butler was a soldier in America's colonial wars, not an intellectual of any kind. War is not always or even predominately an economic activity. US policy in Syria is altogether a result of Zionist political power in the US and the Likud's obsession with Syria, Hizbullah and Ian. pl

Account Deleted

Colonel

Re the Russian assertion that the US now has "Strike groups of naval carriers with cruise missiles" in both the Med. and the Red Sea - is this credible/verifiable? One (Theodore Roosevelt) is already in the Gulf, but short of an attack being launched, how would we learn of the presence of other Naval forces in the area? Is there a recent open source for CSG locations (link below maybe)? I am assuming one cannot sail a CSG between the Pillars of Hercules without being noticed, for example.

Thanks

http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html

luke8929

Trump doesn't have any room to maneuver when negotiating with Putin right now. His latest sanctions on Russia was met with derision by the Democrats, CNN and the NYT, saying it wasn't soon enough and didn't go far enough.

I think Trump will push this confrontation with the Russians until the US public is frightened enough that they don't care what the Dems or their MSM enablers say. He needs his own Cuban Missile Crisis where people are hiding their kids in the sewer system similar to what happened recently in Hawaii.

Who knows maybe there needs to be an actual military confrontation with the Russians with dead on both sides, perhaps even a limited nuclear strike of some type, maybe on Europe or even a large Canadian city close to the US border to bring the point of MAD home.

Peter AU

There has been for some time a propaganda push by the US that Syria have a secret CW program in contravention to its OPCW commitment.
Now UK is doing the same with Russia. Secret programs by both Syrian Russia for Chemical weapons of mass destruction. It is known they have them but are not allowing OPCW officials to the site seems the meme.
Iraq WMD propaganda 2.0.

Andrey Subbotin

Barbara Ann - The Russian briefer said "sea carriers of cruise missiles", ships capable of launching Tomahawks, not aircraft carriers. The Russian word for aircraft carrier - avianosets - was not used.

Grazhdanochka

Things more or less moved from the Points and in the Direction and Pivots I expected and commented under the Colonels 'time-to-clean-up-the-homs-desert-pocket' Update in February, the biggest Hurdles to advances in Ghouta remains two Fold - the prospect of brutal Urban Warfare and the search for a more diplomatic Solution.

Whilst Idlib will no doubt fall under a similar Fate to a degree (Diplomacy will be necessary whilst low hanging Turkish Fruit remain) I do however propose a different Conclusion is possible that simply acceptance of a divided Syria, at least in its current Form.

Turkish Observation Posts largely at current prevent or more, Influence R+6 Activities in Eastern Idlib and Aleppo Province, the Door is still open in the South and West - Hama and Latakiya Provinces...

Through the 'Desert Hawks' previously the Syrian Government has demonstrated capability to advance through the Mountainous Warfare that Latakia demands, Ghouta far from simply securing the Syrian Heartland may be an action designed to free up large numbers of maneuver Units which should enable them not only to squeeze the North West but more seriously threaten Jisr Al Shugur... Likewise an advance in the South could force Opposition out of Hama Province ensuring Hama Cities security.

The ultimate goal depending on Force Ratios and scale of advance could be to render many of the Turkish Positions in East Idlib and Aleppo redundant, inducing a withdrawal from current Positions, or a negotiated Settlement....

The fact that Towns such as Kafarya and Foua remain isolated forces the R+6 to mount some Operation to ensure or negotiate their Position and indeed the Mountains of Latakia would position R+6 suitably to overlook much of Idlib to support where further advances can be made.

Colonel, I would respectfully suggest that War is a Combination of Factors - Economic being one along with Ideological Factors, this all weighs heavily on the Calculations for War, In Syrias Case I suspect that those arguing for it not only included the Zionists, but also got consensus from those whom could argue its benefits in Economics and wider Geopolitics (EU relieved of Russian Energy for example)

By now I suspect the latter Advocates have ideally given up, but the Zionists are incapable of doing so, because unlike Economics they have literally made a Situation worse for the cause they serve.

EEngineer

The cynic in my wonders if the powers that be need something, anything, to trigger the inevitable financial crash that the QE bubble of the last ten years has created. A carrier or two would be a small price to pay, to them anyways. Better to blame that and a quick bust on the Russians in the resulting hysteria than give the soon to be no longer middle class that will be robbed of their pensions and savings time to contemplate the powers that be's role in their impoverishment during a slow grind down.

That's my optimistic view. My pessimistic view is that everyone within the Washington beltway has gone mad. If that's the case then they just won't stop until there's no more fireworks left to shoot off.

scott s.

Barbara Ann:

If the requirement is a "cruise missile" attack, it can be done by a couple of submarines if needed and you wouldn't know until the missiles broach the surface.

turcopolier

scott s

Not enough volume. pl

JPB

The Turkish position being set up northwest of Aleppo is a lot more than an observation post. In addition to troops and armor they are moving in bulldozers and front loaders. Lots of their FSA liver eating allies moving there also. Looks like they perhaps want to set up a strong point at Anadin on route 214 to block SAA access to Afrin and Minnagh Airbase.

Another thought is that the same road also leads to the Shia villages of Nubl and al-Zahraa that recently sent NDF troops to help the Kurds of Afrin. Turkish Air Force bombed a Shia NDF checkpoint near Nubl just a few days ago. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/14-march-8-ndf-fighters-from-nublzahraa-were-killed-in-an
So perhaps they want to keep Hezbollah out of NW Aleppo?

Anna

"Jonathan Allen, whose rank we do not know, has become number two in the UK permanent representation at the United Nations. He is currently leading the Security Council against Russia and Syria." http://www.voltairenet.org/article200163.html
More on Jonathan Allen: https://www.gov.uk/government/people/jonathan-allen#previous-roles
"United Kingdom Ambassador Jonathan Allen today (14 Mar) told an Emergency UN Security Council briefing that Russia has not provided “any credible explanation” for the use of “Russian produced nerve agent” in the Salisbury assassination attempt of an alleged former Russian spy and his daughter."
-- He is obviously playing a clinically retarded individual to push his favorite line: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-17/russia-did-it
More: In 1999, the United States and Uzbekistan have quietly negotiated and are expected to sign a bilateral agreement today to provide American aid in dismantling and decontaminating one of the former Soviet Union's largest chemical weapons testing facilities, according to Defense Department and Uzbek officials. Earlier this year, the Pentagon informed Congress that it intends to spend up to $6 million under its Cooperative Threat Reduction program to demilitarize the so-called Chemical Research Institute, in Nukus, Uzbekistan. … the Nukus plant was the major research and testing site for a new class of secret, highly lethal chemical weapons called ''Novichok,'' which in Russian means ''new guy.'' http://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/25/world/us-and-uzbeks-agree-on-chemical-arms-plant-cleanup.html
It seems that the United Kingdom Ambassador Jonathan Allen is of the same caliber and has the same passion as Mr. Christopher Steele. There is no info on Allen's education (if any) and on his rank in the UK security apparatus in the web.

Anna

on the web

Bandolero

Colonel

I want to let you know that I disagree with your opinion.

What I see is that the reds are marching on. After securing Aleppo city and the east up to the Euphrates, now they are securing the capital region of Damascus.

Regarding Afrin I see a green on yellow attack that doesn't change much for the reds.

confusedponderer

Andrey Subbotin,
re: "The Russian briefer said "sea carriers of cruise missiles", ships capable of launching Tomahawks, not aircraft carriers"

... and that is a good point.

To explain it with more detail: The 7 April 2017 US cruise missile attack on Syria was done with two Arleigh Burke destroyers. Any US carrier group has ships of this class as escorts and protectors.

The cruise missile capability is the side effect of the flexibility of the VLS system Mk.41 and more recently Mk. 57 the US use.

A VLS Mk. 41, and likely the new Mk. 57 also, can fire anything that 'fits in' the silo - Tomahawk cruise missile, VL Asrock, SM-2, SM-3, ESSM. A single Arleigh Burke destroyer has 90 cell silos.

In the cruise missile attack 7 April 2017 the US used just two Arkleigh Burke's, fired 59 missiles and still 'had bullets left'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arleigh_Burke-class_destroyer

Jony Kanuck

Colonel,

So far as offensives to recover territory in Syria go, I’m not sure the Russians are paying attention. If the news reports are true, the Russians have solid intelligence that the USA is planning an attack on Syria.

I think this is pretty crazy: The Russians have said they will knock out whatever launches missiles into Syria. Is it a ‘damn the torpedoes’ moment? I’m not a certified Kremlinologist but I heard Putin say last week that if push comes to shove he will not hesitate to push the red button. Today I saw a news item that the Russian Navy has run nuclear subs right up to the US coast & they were not detected! I read that as Moscow is willing to consider a first strike.

I am also not an expert on nuclear warfare but I’m pretty sure that the best results of an American first strike plus missile defence might be 90% of Russian nukes disabled. I’m in no doubt that the remaining 10% would fry every major American city and London. How can that be seen as victory?

Can we play a game?

Russian air defence has been overwhelmed & Damascus is a smoking ruin. Hundreds of Russian dead.
You are an advisor to Vlad the Hammer. What is your advice?

My advice would be to nuke Warsaw.
You have to be really awful about this. You don’t want to nuke anything in core NATO & you want to do it without warning, not in the USA & as far Russians are concerned; Poles behave obnoxiously.
POTUS is presented with a horrid event but only a couple American dead.
Can there any doubt that Russia will turn north america into a blackened republic of grass & cockroaches!

I want a drink!

turcopolier

jody kanuck

"So far as offensives to recover territory in Syria go, I’m not sure the Russians are paying attention." I would bet you a bucket full of Canadian money that they can walk and chew gum at the same time. pl

turcopolier

Bandolero

"Reds" being the SAA? pl

james

pat - you sum this part of the dynamic up well here "The continuing US policy of regime change in Syria leaves little possibility that the government can recover Syria east and north of the Euphrates River. That land is under US government "protection."

they are also protecting isis over there as well... funny thing about wanting regime change and thinking it is okay to overlook the use of isis to do this.. nothing has really changed from obama to trump here... it is the same ol' same ol' from uncle scam... at some point this has got to change, but until the usa doesn't allow itself to be used as a doormat by israel, i guess we will have to wait for a future time..

as for turkey and sultan erdogan - so many things can go wrong in all of these equations.. i agree with the concern expressed by others like jony kanuck.. we are approaching the insane here..

wisedupearly Ceo

What would be the Pentagon's response if only 10% of the next Tomahawk strike reach their target? 2017 success rate appears to have been 50%.

Peter in Toronto

I am also not an expert on nuclear warfare but I’m pretty sure that the best results of an American first strike plus missile defence might be 90% of Russian nukes disabled"

Perhaps in 1993, under the chaos of Yeltsin and the near-failure of the state and its institutions, but a first strike of this sort cannot go unnoticed with a real-time response.

BTW, what missile defense? The USN recently tested the latest mark of their state of the art SM-3 interceptor missile and failed to hit single-track non-maneuvering ballistic missile.

Russian ICBMs will be supersonic, maneuvering, decoyed and many...

But American civilian casualties may be entirely acceptable to the Likud Party and its proxies in the US. I don't know the calculus being used to evaluate the costs of direct action against Damascus. Maybe there isn't one, and it's simply Ivanka's whispers into daddy's ear.

Bandolero

PL

Yes, of course. My mention of the color was not meant in an ideological way, just as the usual color seen on most maps of the situation in Syria. Red = SAA control, Green = FSA and assorted jihadis, Yellow = Kurds.

The Beaver

@ Anna
Ambassador Allen has Bachelors and Masters degrees in History from Cambridge University. He is married to Elizabeth, and they have two children, Lucy and Benedict (who was born in Sofia in November 2013).
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-ambassador-jonathan-allen-leaves-bulgaria-in-january-2015

Greco

Trump wants to get the U.S. out of Syria’s war, so he asked the Saudi king for $4 billion

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-wants-to-get-the-us-out-of-syrias-war-so-he-asked-the-saudi-king-for-4billion/2018/03/16/756bac90-2870-11e8-bc72-077aa4dab9ef_story.html?utm_term=.3eb9aaad2cbf

It sounds like Saudi Arabia is paying $4 billion to "develop" Syrian territory being "protected" by the US.

Fred

Jony Kanuck,

"Today I saw a news item that the Russian Navy has run nuclear subs right up to the US coast & they were not detected!"

They probably could. Where did you see that news item? Even little green footballs doesn't go in for that stick anymore, got a name or a link? BTW on a far more important note: Toronto hasn't won the cup since you guys put the maple leaf on the flag. Maybe you should change flag designs so as to change thier luck. Or have them hire some Russians like the Red Wings did when they won in 2002 and 2008.

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