Looks like Mattis is the grown up in the room

(Editorial Comment)

This is a very young Mike Pompeo when he was a first year cadet at West Point in 1983.  He concentrated his study there in Mechanical Engineering and graduated first in his class.  By the time he graduated the war in VN was long over.  He served just enough time to repay his service debt to the army, then resigned his commission to go to law school.  So, he never served in combat.  War is an abstraction to him.  In other words, this is probably a game for Pompeo, a power game played on a global map board.

DJT in announcing Pompeo's nomination to the WH lawn press corps stressed that he and Pompeo had "great chemistry" and that they share the same view of the world.  In other words, Pompeo never disagrees with Trump.    Pompeo is well known for his hard line anti-Iranian views and his unshakable sympathy for Israel.  DJT professes the same views.

At the UN Nikki Haley has now specifically threatened Syria and Russia with attack if the Syrian government does not halt its offensive in East Gouta and the Yarmouk camp. Both are near Damascus.  These two places are mainly defended by jihadis, the largest group of which is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, the Al-Qa'ida branch in Syria.  You remember Al Qa'ida.  They were the people who attacked us on 9/11.  Her threat is for retaliation for use of chemical weapons (chlorine)or just plain old "inhuman suffering" inflicted on the "Syrian People."  This does not seem an idle threat given the number of times she has repeated it.  Someone is telling her to say this.  Haley has cabinet rank and does not answer to the State Department.  My guess is that she is listening closely to AIPAC and the neocons like John Bolton.

At the same time Russia has made it clear that they will fight to protect their ally and interests in Syria.  They have been quite plain spoken about that and they included both US aircraft and ships in the threat.  I note that the Admiral Essen, a Russian missile shooting frigate sortied from Sebastopol today.

I think that Pompeo's nomination and his eventual confirmation brings the world closer to a US-Russia war.  If that happens it will be difficult if not impossible to keep the war from escalating toward the use of nuclear weapons.  Israel wants war, a wrecking war with Iran.  Israel wants the US to win that war for Israel.  IMO Israel would be wrecked in such a war whatever the outcome.  This is an August, 1914 moment.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-tillerson-ousted-20180313-story.html 

Comments

[Dr. K.]

And what about the No Ko talks?

[Kerim]

Yes absolutely an August 1914 moment...
That was my first thought when I heard the news.
I think the tone on the Russian side has also markedly changed recently. They are losing patience

[Phodges]

How long until Mattis is shown the door?

[John Minnerath]

The No Ko thing was bluff and bluster against a 3rd rate disfunctional regime at the kiddie end of the statecraft pool.
Russia is another ball game altogether and as much as I'd like to see Trump and the US come out on top he's way out of league in this and the heavy pro Israel leaning is going to be trouble.
Hopefully some smarter and cooler headed diplomats will keep things on an even keel.

[JPB]

A pox on both Pompeo and Haley I say.

I have never trusted Pompeo. How does a Californian run and win a Congressional election in Kansas? Carpetbagger? Plus he got his Doctorate of Law degree from Harvard, which is another strike against him IMO. How will he get along with Nikki, since in the past he has called a Punjabi-American a 'turban topper'? And I note that Nikki had a brother who served in Desert Storm while Pompeo reportedly sat it out.

I don't know anything about Satterfield. But I thought that Haley's job as United States Ambassador to the United Nations was a Cabinet level post and that she worked directly for the White House and not for the State Department. When did that change?

[Willy B]

Pompeo's close relationship with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies--a louder bunch of war mongers you would have a hard time finding--makes the danger that much more palpable, I think.

[rkka]

I have noted the smell of gunpowder in the air since the Kiev coup, though it is almost unbearably intense now.

[Peter AU]

With what has been occurring recently in Syria, now may make or break time for the US.
If it loses to Russia in Syria/Iraq, US would most likely start losing in many places.

[Richard]

Yes I remember Al Qaida. That several consecutive US administrations decided to threaten Russia in order to protect these terrorists was one of the reasons why I lost my trust in the US government and their political appendices here in Europe.

Will CNN praise Trump for his new appointments, just like they praised the US cruise missile attacks on Syria in April 2017 after the alleged chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun?

[A.Pols]

Reminds me of a murder that happened near Charlottesville some years back. Two middle aged brothers who shared a home in the country got into an argument over the use of the air conditioner and one shot the other. Afterwards he was grief stricken and couldn't believe what he'd done. Alcohol was involved. So the thing was tragic and the more so because it was quite unnecessary.

[Laura]

Russia may be VERY sorry they screwed around in our election. Watch what you pray for! I know I'm pretty much not caring about the damn tax cut anymore.

[DailyPlanet]

Just my view on things but something is just so very wrong in this country. Yeah, this has been par for the course for so long that i am used to it but who the hell is in charge and what is the agenda?

"In 2005 Satterfield was named as having provided classified information to an official of the powerful pro-Israel lobbying group, AIPAC. According to documents, Satterfield had discussed secret national security matters in at least two meetings with AIPAC official Steven J. Rosen, who was subsequently indicted by the U.S. Justice Department (later quashed over the objections of the FBI."

https://original.antiwar.com/alison-weir/2011/02/04/critical-connections-egypt-the-us-and-israel%C2%A0/

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

I agree. This is August 1914 being replayed again. The end of the second Gilded Age.

Only the true believers and the Generals are left. The VA Secretary has to guard his office suite. EPA Administrator flies first class. Larry Kudlow, the rumored new economic czar, was fired from Bear Stearns for his cocaine habit.

Donald Trump wants the three Generals gone. Anything becomes possible even a Korean Peace Treaty. Correct me if I am wrong. But, without the Generals the President loses military and contractor backing. The 25th Amendment becomes a real possibility. The God of War is chuckling; if not a World War; then, at least, another American Civil War.

Peace, never.

[Account Deleted]

I pray you are wrong Colonel, but I fear you are not. I have the feeling a far away war just got a whole lot more relevant to my life. Stay safe everyone.

[Clueless Joe]

"Frighteningly, Mattis is now the adult and saner one in the whole administration" was exactly my thought a few hours ago...

As for Israel, they should be aware that if this ends up in a US vs Russia WW3, they will be wiped out - if not nuked by Russia, others will seize the opportunity offered by such chaos. There's simply no way that they're coming out of this war in a comparatively better situation, compared to the sorry state of other Western countries, than they are now - they'll be hit just as badly, and probably worse than some.

[DC]

Trump needs 60 votes to push the appointees through. Hopefully there are enough concerned Rs to encourage a transparent debate on the policy ramifications.

[LondonBob]

I think you are being too pessimistic, still a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Trump is instinctively opposed to another war and knows it would be politically disastrous. The Iran deal being further undermined is more likely the middle path that will be trod.

I was very enthusiastic about Tillerson but he really hasn't looked up to it, the idea was better than the reality. Pompeo I don't know, superficially looks poor but I think he is cleverer than he lets on, and a lot is just rhetoric.

[Kooshy]

Colonel. Unfortunately you are perfectly right again with your analysis,for consequences of trending current affairs. My hunch is in this new west east war, Europe (except for UK) and east Asia, none of US main allies will side with US in a meaning full way, and that unwillingness to share will be the final nail in coffin of US centered world order based on UN, NATO and BW dollars.

[JohnsonR]

"This is an August, 1914 moment."

I've been fearing that Syria is looking more and more like that for some time now.

The unimaginative ridicule the suggestion that open war between the US and Russia could result from events in Syria, because it is just too big a change in the world for them to comprehend it as a real possibility. But there is a clear route for escalation, and now the US regime has suggested how the initiation might occur.

If the US strikes Syria, Russia has to choose whether to let it pass (as it did Trump's previous crime) or to respond. If the US misjudges the scale of its attack and Russia responds with actions that kill US military personnel, then the US regime faces the same choice, and open war is an easy outcome. On each occasion, there is a clear cost to not retaliating, and a psychological inclination not to just turn the other cheek. This is a profoundly dangerous situation, and parallels with 1914 are absolutely not out of place.

I believe we would have been here a year ago if Clinton had won the presidency. Trump gave hope that it could be avoided, but it seems that hope was vain, whether because Trump lied or because he has been putty in the hands of the usual suspects around the US regime.

Fortunately, there will probably be many opportunities for either party to step off the escalation process before it reaches a nuclear exchange, and the prospect of that tends to concentrate even the minds of the powerful.

Let's be absolutely clear here, though - the US is wholly the party at fault here in creating this situation. Syria is a longstanding Russian/Soviet ally and it is the US regime's determination to overthrow the Syrian government that is creating the danger we now face. Granted, after that you can look at other parties involved in "influencing" the US regime towards war in Syria for their own self-serving ulterior motives, but in the end the US government and nation must be held responsible for its own choices and for allowing itself to be "influenced".

[Oilman2]

With NATO right on their border and Alaska on their other - there isn't anywhere for Russia to retreat to. They have ONE overseas base, and we wish to contest that, per our mouthpieces.

I think Putin made his point(s) crystal clear on March 1st. Continually poking the bear only ends one way. What might the neocon/Trump reaction be to a carrier being taken out? Or closing of the Straits by air/sea denial?

I do not wish to have either of these questions answered in any reality - simply because our government has come to believe they are invincible, and apparently, our military as well.

[turcopolier]

DC

I believe he now needs only a simple majority to confirm appointments. pl

[turcopolier]

VV

Explain to me how the "contractors" affect the outcomes. Campaign money? The big money is in Hollywood, Silicon Valley and the left side of Wall Street. pl

[Jony Kanuck]

Colonel,
Yes & no to Aug'14. I'd go for July; the 'black swan event' has occurred, now what will the major powers do?

I note that the Russian threat came not from the Pres or the Prime Minister, or the FM. It came from the CDS. I think the orders for Russian air defense staff in Syria have been cut; shoot on launch. The Russians seem sure the attack will be on Damascus, in response to an imagined gas attack in East Ghouta. So probably air launched cruise missiles.

My black swan is Russian air defense knocking down a couple US strike a/c. In 1914, starting with Austro Hungary, everyone (Rus, Ger, Fra) then reacted instead of looking at how bad it could get. The Brits were the last in, reluctantly. Brit FM Grey said "The lights are going out in Europe, I don't know when we shall see them lit again".

[turcopolier]

Daily Planet

There were others in the Satterfield sting. Who were they? pl

[turcopolier]

JPB

It has been on and off and is now on as a cabinet post. So, Satterfield is probably not the man responsible for his foolishness. pl