Sic Semper Tyrannis

Russia Sends 14 Questions To Britain on the Skripal Nerve Agent Affair

By Robert Willmann

Russia has presented 14 questions to the British Foreign Ministry on the alleged poisoning of the Skripals in Britain by a nerve agent--

 1. Why has Russia been denied the right of consular access to the two Russian citizens, who came to harm on British territory?

2. What specific antidotes and in what form were the victims injected with? How did such antidotes come into the possession of British doctors at the scene of the incident?

3. On what ground7:55:14 PM7:57:06 PMs was France involved in technical cooperation in the investigation of the incident, in which Russian citizens were injured?

4. Did the UK notify the OPCW (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) of France’s involvement in the investigation of the Salisbury incident?

5. What does France have to do with the incident, involving two Russian citizens in the UK?

6. What rules of UK procedural legislation allow for the involvement of a foreign state in an internal investigation?

7. What evidence was handed over to France to be studied and for the investigation to be conducted?

 

Fotokemist - A new committee member

 

"Retired Analytical Chemist with experience as senior management, commercial laboratory, post graduate education, government research, and technical expert witness. Currently interested in world events, homesteading, photography, ministering to children of incarcerated individuals, and dabbling in the stock market."  Fotokemist

SST will no longer post comments from the public at large.

SST has between 15 and 20 k readers/day.  Around fifty or sixty comments are sent in for my contemplation or that of guest authors before they are posted.  Sixty percent of those are hostile; professional hired trolls, ideologues, hyper nationalists from one cause or another and some people who just like being ugly.  

I have decided that SST is essentially a "salon.'  It is a place for well-meaning conversation among the learned and skilled.  It is a dialog conducted in a benevolent setting among colleagues.   In the situation that has evolved the "foule" is standing in the street outside that room screaming comments through the windows.  Some comments are good but some are so useless and childish that I have decided to make a basic change in policy.

Henceforth there will be no comments from the general public.  I will change the mechanism of the blog to eliminate such comment capability.   The committee will consist of guest-authors, junior-authors and me.  These authors will retain their posting privileges with the proviso that the junior authors' work will be screened by me before publication.  Guest and junior authors can comment on each others' work by submitting posts for that purpose.

Any members of the public who want to join such a committee can write to me at [email protected] to seek approval.  pl

 

SKRIPALMANIA byPatrick Armstrong

1. It’s obvious nonsense brought to you by proven liars.
2. The point of propaganda is to leave an impression after the details have been forgotten.
3. To get involved in discussing the minutiae of the story is to help the propagandists’ aims.
4. Therefore treat it as a badly constructed story that is failing to convince.
5. Do this by analysing the comments on the news stories which (at least the ones I’ve looked at) show that people are sceptical.
6. Also mock the meanderings of the story: At the restaurant! In the car! On the doorstep! Incredibly lethal but strangely ineffective. Miraculous recovery of daughter. Baby wipes as effective protection. Reminiscent of White Helmets and their flip flops, rubber gloves and paper masks; but, come to think of it, it’s the same authors in both stories. Who, after so many lies, are becoming overconfident and sloppy.

It’s a startlingly incompetent theatrical production and should be responded to with contemptuous mockery.

Spring Break

I'll be back when I am back.  Happy Easter.   pl

“Build WALL through M!” - TTG

"(20 July 2012) By RUSTY DENNEN - THE FREE LANCE-STAR   Civil War soldiers in Union blue transformed the Stafford County landscape nearly 150 years ago during their yearlong stay—cutting trees and roads and setting up vast camps, a harbor and fortifications.

This week, troops in Army green were at work at a 41-acre site where some of their Civil War counterparts once stayed. Due largely to those efforts, the area’s newest Civil War park could open as early as this fall on the rolling swath of woodland off Mount Hope Church Road. About 80 soldiers with the Powhatan-based 180th Engineer Company, 276th Engineer Battalion, 91st Troop Command are clearing trees and brush and building roads in a two-week project that began Sunday. The Guard and a local nonprofit, Friends of Stafford County Civil War Sites, which is overseeing the project, on Thursday showed progress at the tract to county officials and Bill Howell, speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates.

Much of the effort was focused on Howard Avenue, one of the park’s new internal roads. Gen. Oliver Otis Howard commanded the mostly German troops who served here. His 11th Corps soldiers were among 135,000 Union troops who regrouped in Stafford after the December 1862 Battle of Fredericksburg.

“We’re combat construction, anything to do with roads, clearing brush, ditching,” said Capt. Jesse Kopczynski of the 180th Engineer Company. “The main focus is to train our guys for their combat mission.” The troops get valuable experience on heavy equipment in a real-world setting, “and we’re doing something for the community,” he said. The National Guard is doing the work—at no cost to the county or FSCWS—under its Innovative Readiness Training program. IRT allows soldiers to work on worthy civilian projects approved by the National Guard Bureau.

The 203rd Red Horse Squadron of the Virginia Air National Guard, based in Virginia Beach, will pave the roads and shoulders once the engineers finish work later this month." Read the rest of the article here.

*****************************  

I resurrected this old story about how our Stafford Civil War park was constructed to show how Trump’s “Build WALL through M!” could be implemented. This goes beyond the idea of just letting the Corps of Engineers oversee the project. He could run with the idea that securing our southern border is a matter of national defense and go beyond a massive Innovative Readiness Training (IRT) program for the National Guard and Reserve engineering units. Imagine a well resourced III Corps with the manpower of several combat brigades and engineering brigades (if those even exist) managing a nationwide IRT program. In our military’s past, soldiers often constructed roads and forts as a normal part of their mission. It would require a modification in the MTOE of the combat brigades, but that’s done all the time. It would also require a change in today’s attitude from warrior back to soldier, a change I think is long overdue. And I’d rather see our troops spending our wealth (or debt) here that spending it on overseas military adventures. 

TTG

The Geo-Political Poker Game: Where’s the 'Off-Ramp'? by Alastair Crooke

 

At the beating heart of Trump’s Presidency lies the notion of the Art of the Deal.  It is said that Trump has few convictions, but his notion of how to negotiate – with a big stick, maximum leverage, and with credible, fear-inducing ‘threats’ -  is central to his whole Presidency.  It underlies his tariff and American job protection platform; his fiscal profligacy  that has to keep giving a fiscal quid pro quo to social programmes, in return for escalating ‘big stick’ defence expenditures; and – of course – it underlies his whole geo-political approach, particularly in respect upping the stakes toward China, North Korea and Iran.

This underlying notion of the ‘deal’ is transactional in essence, best practiced as a one-to-one operation, rather than in a multilateral context.  But in the sphere of geo-politics this is not so easy.  In the next months, but climaxing in May (other things being equal), Trump will put his negotiating theory to the test in a very different ambit to that of New York real estate. The North Korean summit should be held; the verdict on the nuclear agreement with Iran is due to be pronounced then; the US Israeli-Palestinian determination is scheduled to be ‘handed down’ in May; the Sunni states’ Iran containment roles to be set; and any punitive tariffs on China will be decided, and enacted.  Although apparently disconnected issues, their clustering together in May will inter-connect them: Success or failure in one, will leach into parallel spheres.

And in the background – of course – will grind on the western Intelligence Establishment’s determination to cut down President Putin and Russia (the Salisbury Skripal affair) to size - and through slapping down Putin, to wound Trump too, naturally.   

Russia has said that it will respond proportionately to the collective diplomatic expulsions.  Plainly, some in the Deep State fraternity are hoping that Russia’s response will serve as pretext for a further round of decrying President Putin, with the added possibility to push Russia out of the SWIFT clearing system.   

Such then is the confluence of issues, but what happens if someone calls the bluff?  (We can ignore South Korea caving-in on trade). What happens, more importantly, if the bluff is shown for what it is – a bluff, widely and publicly?

What happens if the Chinese, the North Koreans, the Iranians and the Russians understand the concept behind the Art of the Deal, and furthermore know that the US is not really in a position to make good on the bluff – on its full-throated threats of military or trade actions – at least?  Trump may be ready for a demonstrative missile ‘tweet’ such as the 57 Tomahawk missiles launched at Syria. But the principal global actors are unlikely to ‘quake’ at that.  Times change.  American military might is now seen in its limitations, as well as in its substantial capabilities.

"The Greatest President" (a TV masterpiece)

(editorial comment)

My current analytic theory in  contemplation of Trumpland is that the man is engaged in producing his own TV "reality" show.

There are quite a few things that he has done or caused to occur that I like; the tax law, the veterans benefits law, Justice Goresuch, de-regulation of everything he can reach by EO, a long list of pending judicial appointments that will fundamentally alter the character of the federal judiciary for a generation,  his negotiating technique with China, and other Melian states over trade barriers (the tariffs are IMO just a ploy), his confrontation with NOKO (it is yielding changes in rocketman's positions).  From my POV these are positives.

In spite of all these good things, the man is bizarre in his approach to life.  He seems to be driven by demons from his childhood to act like a fool and boor.  Usually such behavior is derived from an unhappy relationship with a parent or both parents.  His serial philandering with women who happen to pass through his life and his grotesque description of his wooings leads me to believe that it is probably his mother whom he is trying to defeat.  Unkind?  Freudian? Yes.

In the development of his "team," a favorite business term, he really seems to me to be producing his own show with the intention of starring in it as well.  His ego is such that he is compelled to see himself as the center of every scene, a magnetic pole toward which all heads are bowed without serious discord or disagreement.  In his version of "The West Wing," there is no place for serious dissent by such as McMaster, Kelly, Tillerson, Mattis, etc.  To reach the right casting outcome, he is systematically replacing any characters who will disturb the coherence of the show.  At the same time he appears to be writing the scripts in order to produce successful endings and outcomes with regard to the foreign countries who, for him, are really just script devices and scenery.  I doubt that it really occurs to him that he may not be able to overcome the Spartans/Russians/Iranians and their trivial satellites like Melos/Syria.  After all, is it not HIS show?  pl

"Let's investigate John Brennan" by Phil Geraldi

"Former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Brennan, a Barack Obama friend and protégé as well as a current paid contributor for NBC and MSNBC, has blasted President Donald Trump for congratulating President Vladimir Putin over his victory in recent Russian national elections. He said that the U.S. President is “afraid of the president of Russia” and that the Kremlin “may have something on him personally. The fact that he has had this fawning attitude toward Mr. Putin …continues to say to me that he does have something to fear and something very serious to fear.”"

It is an indication of how low we have sunk as a nation that a possible war criminal like Brennan can feel free to use his former official status as a bully pulpit to claim that someone is a foreign spy without any real pushback or objection from the talking heads and billionaire manipulators that unfortunately run our country. If Trump is actually being blackmailed, as Brennan implies, what evidence is there for that? One might reasonably conclude that Brennan and his associates are actually angry because Trump has had the temerity to try to improve relations with Russia." Giraldi

-----------

I have known both Brennan and Giraldi for a long time.  They are examples of the worst (Brennan) and the best (Giraldi) that the  CIA has produced although I will remind that Giraldi started in the Army and was lured to Langley when already a well known and respected person in the intelligence community.

Brennan, at the beginning of his career was judged by CIA to be unsuited to be a field man and was made an analyst.  I first knew him when I was Defense Attache in Jiddah and he was attached to Alan Fiers office.  It was clear to me from the beginning that he was someone whom you should not trust or turn your back on. 

Giraldi here lays out the case for Brennan's turpitude.  Let Sessions act on this!  Let him act!  pl 

http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/lets-investigate-john-brennan/

Heartlessness By Richard Sale

Over the weekend, I watched two episodes about the great Soviet leader, Stalin, his rise to power, his treachery towards friends and comrades and allies. (It was shown on the AHC channel: “Apocalypse: Stalin.” What emerges is a horrifying character that began as a bank robber and ended as a mass executioner and the instigator of man- made famines that killed millions.

Stalin was a very vain man. There are no official reports about the height of Joseph Stalin because Stalin was sensitive about it; he went to great lengths to conceal his lack of stature from the Soviet people and the world because he stood only at 5 feet 4 or 5 feet 5. He was an un-attractive man with his pockmarked face, bad teeth, his limp, and his withered left arm yet his deepest ambition was to develop his country, weaken or kill rivals and have his image plastered on every public building.

Stalin had a library of 20,000 books. He could quote The Bible, Jane Austin, and Bismarck and others. But from those things he learned little. He lacked refinement, elegance, social polish, and compassion.

His selfish self-worship led his soul by the nose.  In each of us there is an innate selfishness which defaces our character.  William James talks of a man on a bus that remains sitting while women are standing or grabbing a bigger portion to cut out his neighbor.  Such selfishness is a reflex, he said.  It can be curbed, held back by careful self-examination and can be weakened over time.  But Stalin was a spiritual primitive. He lived in a society where having a conscience was seen as a vulnerability, not a strength. If you hesitated or brooded over a fact or a course of action or tried to correct an impulse, you were lost.  If you didn’t seize your chance, another predator might snatch it from you. That’s how Stalin’s mind worked.

Erdogan is making progress toward ... What?

 

"Turkey has the following goals:

• to consolidate gains and to expand the territory under its control in northern and northwestern Syria as well as in northern Iraq. The expansion in northern Iraq may be conducted under the pretext of military efforts against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sinjar. The military presence in neighboring countries will be justified publicly by the need to create so-called “security zones” to combat “terrorism”;
• to strengthen positions on the so-called Cyprus Issue. Northern Cyprus is a self-proclaimed state occupying the northern part of the island and is recognized only by Turkey. Turkey maintains a notable military force there;
• to strengthen its influence in the Aegean Sea;
• to expand its cultural and political influence into the Turkic states of Central Asia and to restore its clandestine influence on the Turkic regions of Russia."  SF

-------------

 The author of this piece agrees with my position that Turkey will not be leaving northern Syria unless forced to do so.  Any number of crafty ploys are available to insure an indefinite presence leading in the end  to a request from a puppet government for annexation to Turkey.  The same thing is very likely to occur in northern Iraq.

What will Russia, Iran and the US do about such a progression of events?  They are likely to do nothing.  Inaction is always probable when larger issues of international economics and great power rivalries are barriers to action.  pl 

https://southfront.org/victories-and-diplomacy-of-turkey-what-to-expect-next/

Madness, it's madness. In March. You know what that means - ....... by Fred

 

Get your brackets ready!

Remember when the real press carried the real important news in March?  

My where have those days gone. It was all so much fun. "Obama played pickup games throughout his marathon campaign...." The ultimate playa. 

But we can restore the spirt of the old days, because we have - a blog!

Damascus Steel nears its conclusion. What’s next? - TTG

The fighting in the East Ghouta is quickly winding down. Much of the success is due to the SAA’s employment of overwhelming forces in the area, aggressive fire and maneuver of combined arms teams and a judicious use of air and artillery fire support. All this guided by a heavy use of UAVs. However, much of the success of this operation is due to the work of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria. Rather than having to fight for every street corner and apartment block, thousands of the jihadis were induced to being bussed to Idlib with only their small arms and no ammunition. Heavy weapons were handed over to the SAA. Thousands of Syrian civilians and prisoners held by the jihadists were freed. In my opinion, this was a far better outcome than the devastation that occurred in Raqqa and Mosul.

What’s next? I would think that the Daesh jihadis holding Yarmouk and Qadam would be the next focus after the last district of East Ghouta is secured. Longer term, it appears the SAA is setting its sights on the Dara’a region. Al Masdar News reports today that the SAA and Russians “have sent an official military delegation to the rebel-held areas of Dara’a to begin reconciliation talks”

**********************

“According to the military source, the delegation has offered terms of reconciliation to the rebels in Dara’a, which include the surrender of all heavy arms to the government. In addition to surrendering their heavy arms, the rebels will also have to agree to reopen roads in order to promote commerce and trade between all towns in the Dara’a Governorate.

In exchange for reconciliation, the rebels will be allowed to control the towns they are already present in, while also receiving aid from the government. The rebels will also be offered the opportunity to settle their cases with the Syrian government.

The delegation has warned the rebels in Dara’a that the failure of these reconciliation talks will result in a Syrian military operation.”

**********************

This is getting very close to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. We can expect a dramatic rise in the anti-Damascus and anti-Iranian propaganda as well as a rise in Israeli military support to their jihadist allies in the region. That’s a given. The real question is how Trump and his new NSA and SecState will react. ’Tis a puzzlement.

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/exclusive-syrian-military-sends-delegation-to-rebel-held-daraa-to-begin-reconciliation-talks/

Sue him! Sue Brennan! Charge him!

 " ... later in the day on Wednesday, Mr. Brennan explained that his comments were speculation based on Mr. Trump’s words and deeds, as well as how Mr. Putin’s government has operated at home and abroad — but not on any inside knowledge.

“I do not know if the Russians have something on Donald Trump that they could use as blackmail,” he said in a written response to questions from The New York Times.

“When asked the question, I have pointed out the perplexing submissiveness of Mr. Trump toward Mr. Putin — despite continued evidence of malign Russian activities,” Mr. Brennan added. “I do not know why he refuses to call out Russia; that is a question that can only be answered by Mr. Trump.”

 

Along with Mr. Brennan, who is a paid contributor to NBC and MSNBC, other retired officials with contributor deals included James Clapper Jr., the former director of national intelligence; Steven L. Hall, the former director of Russia operations at the C.I.A.; and Jeremy Bash, a former C.I.A. and Pentagon official."  NY Times

------------------

For a clearly partisan former director of CIA and close friend of Barack Obama to make such statements whether they are "speculation" or not invites legal action against him.

1.  How dos he have "inside information" to support his implications?  Is his "inside information" derived from classified information?  If that is so then he should be held accountable as the Obama Administration held so many accountable under the  Espionage Act.

2.  What could be more clearly Defamations of Character than this Morning Joe interview?  Make him prove his insinuations!  Make him state what the evidence is!  pl  

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/21/us/politics/john-brennan-trump-putin.html

HARPER: WEST BROKE PROMISE TO YELTSIN OF NO NATO EXPANSION

As relations between the United States and Russia move from bad to worse, despite President Donald Trump's efforts to maintain good personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is worthwhile to review a critical piece of post-Cold War history.  Back at the time of German reunification, there was a handshake agreement between the United States, Russia, Germany and NATO that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO, so long as Russia accepted the integration of East Germany into the Federal Republic and Germany's continued membership in NATO.  Ambassador Jack Matlock, who represented the United States in the Soviet Union and Russia during the transition period, verified the deal, as did General Harald Kujat, former head of the German armed forces and then chairman of the NATO Defense Committee.  Others on the Russian side have confirmed similar accounts.  

Not only was there a pledge to halt any eastward expansion of NATO.  It was clearly understood that Ukraine would be a permanent buffer state between NATO and Russian borders.  During the early days of the Clinton Administration, the U.S. launched the Partnership for Peace, which was presented as an alternative to NATO expansion.  Russia was promised membership in the new security structure.  

While some American officials, including military flag officers, called for the dismantling of NATO at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, others argued that NATO had an important mission:  To assure that there was no new outbreak of war on the European continent.  NATO was the only treaty organization under which the United States maintained a presence in Europe.  There was legitimate concern that, after two world wars in the 20th century broke out in Europe, it was appropriate to maintain a watchful eye that no new conflict erupted among the contending European states.  Given the Balkan Wars of the early 1990s, this was not an outlandish concern.  Ultimately, according to the logic of those promoting a continuation of NATO, Russia could be incorporated in a new security architecture.  In effect, under a revived American-Russian cooperation, war in Europe would be a permanent thing of the past.

This narrative may seem absurd by today's circumstances.  But there is now a growing body of declassified documents that confirm that there was a gentlemen's agreement that there would be no further eastward expansion of NATO, and that the Partnership for Peace would be the anchor of a new Eurasian security architecture to prevent the outbreak of future wars, and to build new cooperative relations in the economic and political spheres as well.

The National Security Archive, hosted at George Washington University ([email protected]) has recently obtained and posted a number of documents from U.S. and Russian files from the early 1990s, recounting this story.  They can be found under the headline "NATO Expansion: What Yeltsin Heard."  They are well-worth reading for anyone looking for a way out of the current madness New Cold War rhetoric coming from Washington, Berlin, London, Paris and Moscow.

Syria Report 21 March 2018 - TTG

"DAMASCUS, SYRIA (06:05 PM) – Turkey is not planning to remain in Syria’s Afrin district indefinitely, according to Bekir Bozdağ, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey.

Bozdağ made the remarks during a press conference on Monday, as reported by Turkish newspaper Hürriyet Daily News. The minister’s remarks come a day after rebel forces of the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed heavily by Turkish military support, captured Afrin city on Sunday.

According to Bozdağ, Turkey is planning to withdraw its armed forces from the region soon and return Afrin to “its rightful owners”. However, the Turkish minister failed to clarify who exactly he was referring to with this."  (Al Masdar News)

**************************

This statement certainly was news to me. It could be a smokescreen, but I don’t see any reason Ankara would need a smokescreen. Perhaps eliminating the Kurdish threat is the real goal of operation Olive Branch. If true, it bodes well for the future of Syria. While I don’t know Erdogan’s full reasons for the operation, I strongly suspect that one of Russia’s goals for acquiescing to the operation was to force a breakup of the US-Kurdish marriage and a return of Rojava to Damascus. Now that Afrin has fallen, we must wait to see what the TSK and FSA have in store for Manbij. US troops are still in the area. Will they abandon their Kurdish allies in the face of a TSK/FSA advance? What happens when the TSK/FSA go after Kobane? I would think that the Kurds will eventually realize that the US is not their friend and ally and that taking the deal offered by Damascus is their only hope of resisting further Turkish predations.    

The SAA offensive to reduce the East Ghouta pocket appears to be going well. It should. The SAA massed sufficient forces, the cream of the SAA, and applied sufficient supporting fires to ensure success. However, the fighting has not been without surprises. After inducing a large number of jihadis to surrender or be bussed to Idlib and successfully evacuating tens of thousands of civilians out of harms way, the SAA was hit by a surprise Daesh attack out of the Yarmouk refugee camp into the al Qadam district. Some SAA troops were surrounded for a short time before being rescued by a sharp counterattack. The SAA suffered high casualties at al Qadam requiring the redeployment of several assault units from the 4th Mechanized Division to reinforce the line. Daesh now control ninety percent of the al Qadam district in this back and forth battle.

The jihadis suffered heavy losses as a result of another one of their counterattacks targeting Masraba. They pushed forward recapturing a large swath of the district. The SAA again had to divert forces to stop the counterattack. After a day, the jihadis decided to pull back to their original positions in Douma. Unfortunately for them, the SAA caught them in an indirect and direct fire trap as they crossed an open area resulting in lots of dead jihadis.    

To the southeast, the SAA and its militia allies stopped a sizable Daesh offensive just south of T2. This offensive consisted of numerous waves over two days. The jihadis simultaneously struck near al Mayadin and al Bukamal. The SAA called in airstrikes to beat back the attacks. Estimated casualties on both sides exceeded one hundred. The R+6 made a wise decision when they started reinforcing the Deir Ezzor area a few weeks ago.

In my opinion, all these battles point to the wisdom of reducing some of these pockets of jihadis before finally taking on the Idlib area. Those in the pockets are not defeated remnants waiting to be mopped up. They are organized units fully capable of offensive actions. They could create havoc if they attacked while the bulk of the SAA was engaged in Idlib. Perhaps now that the TSK/FSA has made Afrin safe for jihadis, the SAA can soon push the Idlib jihadis further north once that inevitable offensive kicks off. 

The US is reportedly beefing up its garrison at al Tanf and establishing similar strongpoints in the YPG/SDF occupied areas east of the Euphrates. From these garrisons, Special Forces teams continue to organize, equip and train various shades of remnant jihadi outfits to ostensibly take on Daesh, but the real target appears to be the SAA and its allies. I try to imagine some of the conversations that must go on around the fire among these teams. Exasperated talk about what those idiots back in DC are thinking. Surly, mutinous talk that stays around the campfire, but also in the minds of the Green Berets. Once the campfires die out, they will move on and continue to fulfill their assigned missions to the best of their abilities. 

General Votel may agree that Assad had won the civil war in Syria, but he knows this is far from over. The situation is still fraught with danger for all in the region. 

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-deputy-pm-turkey-will-not-remain-in-afrin/

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/03/20/why-afrin-has-fallen-us-turkish-russian-kurdish-roles/

https://ahvalnews2.com/afrin/ypg-live-fight-another-day-expert

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201803071062325647-daesh-syria-offensive/

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-march-20-2018-u-s-building-military-garrison-to-control-largest-syrian-oil-field/

Open Thread - 21 March 2018

pl

Votel, Mattis and Dunford must be on the same page.

 

"The top U.S. general in the Middle East testified before Congress this week and dropped several bombshells: from signaled support for the Iran nuclear deal, admitting the U.S. does not know what Saudi Arabia does with its bombs in Yemen and that Assad has won the Syrian Civil War.

U.S. Army General Joseph Votel said the Iran agreement, which President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from, has played an important role in addressing Iran's nuclear program.

"The JCPOA addresses one of the principle threats that we deal with from Iran, so if the JCPOA goes away, then we will have to have another way to deal with their nuclear weapons program," said U.S. Army General Joseph Votel.

JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the formal name of the accord reached with Iran in July 2015 in Vienna.

Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the accord between Tehran and six world powers unless Congress and European allies help "fix" it with a follow-up pact. Trump does not like the deal's limited duration, among other things.

Votel is head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iran. He was speaking to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the same day that Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after a series of public rifts over policy, including Iran.

Tillerson had joined Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in pressing a skeptical Trump to stick with the agreement with Iran.

"There would be some concern (in the region), I think, about how we intended to address that particular threat if it was not being addressed through the JCPOA. ... Right now, I think it is in our interest" to stay in the deal, Votel said.

When a lawmaker asked whether he agreed with Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford's position on the deal,Votel said: "Yes, I share their position."

Mattis said late last year that the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it was proven Tehran was not complying or that the agreement was not in the U.S. national interest.

A collapse of the Iran nuclear deal would be a “great loss,” the United Nations atomic watchdog's chief warned Trump recently, giving a wide-ranging defense of the accord.

Iran has stayed within the deal’s restrictions since Trump took office but has fired diplomatic warning shots at Washington in recent weeks. It said on Monday that it could rapidly enrich uranium to a higher degree of purity if the deal collapsed.

Syria

Votel also discussed the situation in Syria at the hearing.

During the Syrian army's offensive in eastern Ghouta, more than 1,100 civilians have died. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russia and Iran, say they are targeting "terrorist" groups shelling the capital.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned on Monday that Washington "remains prepared to act if we must," if the U.N. Security Council failed to act on Syria.

Votel said the best way to deter Russia, which backs Assad, was through political and diplomatic channels.

"Certainly if there are other things that are considered, you know, we will do what we are told. ... (But) I don't recommend that at this particular point," Votel said, in an apparent to reference to military options.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was too strong to say that with Russia and Iran's help, Assad had "won" the civil war in Syria.

"I do not think that is too strong of a statement," Votel said.

Graham also asked if the United States' policy on Syria was still to seek the removal of Assad from power.

"I don't know that that's our particular policy at this particular point. Our focus remains on the defeat of ISIS," Votel said, using an acronym for Islamic State. "  Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-18/us-centcom-chief-comes-clean-generals-three-stunning-admissions-mid-east

-----------------

Votel would never say anything like this if he were not in agreement with Mattis and Dunford.  This is illustrative of a weakening of Israeli/AIPAC/Saudi  influence in US Middle East policy.  It will be interesting to see if Votel is rebuked for these statements.  pl

 

(BBC - 15 March 2018) The trouble telling aid workers and foreign fighters apart - the Virginian

It should be easy to tell the difference between an aid worker and a jihadist, but the war in Syria shows that is not always the case. Finding a solution could help ensure aid still reaches the people who need it in future conflicts.

A desire to ease the suffering of ordinary Syrians during its years of civil war has been shared by many people around the world.

But getting aid into Syria and making sure it reaches the right people is extremely difficult.

The conflict is complex and jihadists took advantage of the ensuing confusion - particularly at the start of the war - with some aid money diverted and foreign fighters entering the country by posing as aid workers.

Charities and aid have been exploited by extremists in previous conflicts - in countries from Bosnia to Afghanistan.

So, how can they be stopped from doing so in future?

In Syria, research by the Lowy Institute shows how extremists have often portrayed themselves as champions of the oppressed, with many claiming to be working with children and orphans.

Full article at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42861695

**************

I’ve met the author, and was part of a training activity that included us both once upon a time.  While I do not necessarily agree with all of his views, the question is a good - and troubling - one, with no easy answer. Most NGOs and International Organizations (IOs) have no or limited capacity to fully vet staff, even less so when staff are contracted directly in a conflict or a post-conflict zone, or even a relatively stable country office environment.  And this reality is not specific to jehadis, but any type of terrorist, insurgent or similar actor regardless of religion, ethnicity, etc.  One need only look at Africa, Latin America for non-jehadi examples. 

Syria Report - 17 March 2018

In the ongoing battles around Damascus it seems more and more clear to me that the Syrian Government is consolidating its position in its heartlands in anticipation of an armistice negotiated by the Russians, an armistice that may last for years as the government and the rebels (now mostly jihadis) gather their strength for a renewal of the conflict toward a final result that will result in annihilation of one side.  The East Gouta pocket is being sliced up apace by the SAA.  The western part of the pocket is a built up urban area while the eastern area is farmland and villages.  The SAA chose to go into Gouta from the east and are now evacuating civilians from the remaining jihadi held urban areas in the west of the pocket.  10,000 are reported to have been evacuated thus far.  They are assisted in this by the Russian military police.  The evacuees are leaving by moving east through the farmland rather than west through metropolitan Damascus.  There have been numerous demonstrations in favor of the government in the rebel/jihadi held areas of Gouta.  This has been little reported in Western media.

The continuing US policy of regime change in Syria leaves little possibility that the government can recover Syria east and north of the Euphrates River. That land is under US government "protection."  How the movement of (US) Kurds to Afrin to fight will affect that is unpredictable.

As SST forecast just after the fall of Aleppo City to the government, Idlib Province has become a cancerous wound in the side of the possibility of a fully re-united Syria.  The Turks are taking advantage of their burgeoning relationship with Russia to eradicate Kurdish control of Afrin district in Aleppo Province.  The Turks are making steady progress in this effort.  The evolving tie to Russia is evident in the S-400 SAM deal and Russia seems complicit in the "Olive Branch" campaign.  There are clearly limits to Russian protection of the SAG.  The Turks have now established "observation posts" of company size all along the eastern border of Idlib Province.  These are positioned to impede a renewed advance of  R+6 into Idlib Province once SAA and friends are finished in the Damascus area.    The latest of these posts is now being placed just NW of Aleppo so as to prevent an advance by the government to the west into northern Aleppo Province.  IMO what we are seeing is a slow motion annexation of NW Syria by Turkey.  Tayyip Erdogan seems to want to be remembered as Fatih Sultan Tayyip.  Would the SAG be strong enough to fight Turkey in Idlib?  That is an open question.

The Russian MoD says that the US is planning cruise missile attacks on Syria in response to a putative gas attack in the Gouta area.  This is somewhat amusing  given the recent capture of a jihadi chlorine gas factory in East Gouts, but, we will see.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/syrian-army-advances-reportedly-liberates-two-more-towns-evacuates-thousands-of-civilians-in-eastern-ghouta-map-photos/

https://southfront.org/overview-of-battle-for-afrin-on-march-17-2018-map-video-photo/

https://southfront.org/turkish-army-is-establishing-new-observation-post-north-of-aleppo-city-video/

https://southfront.org/u-s-deploys-naval-strike-groups-for-attacks-on-syria-trains-militants-for-false-flag-chemical-attacks/

Sean Hannity's time has come ... (irony)

It seems clear that LTG HR McMaster will be leaving for "home" in the Pentagon where he will be given a fourth star as "hush money" for his experience at the WH.  "And angels sing thee to thy rest ..."  Oh, well people come and go.

Who would be the new NS adviser?  Why not Sean H, the world's most eligible jingoist high school drop out?  He and Bolton would work admirably together.  Two ferociously Type A people (a sort of people), both are filled with vindictive animosity directed toward any possible international rivals or any rival at all.  They could team up with Pompeo and the torture lady who will be head of "Christians In Action" to form a Team of Sycophants competing for the fleeting attention which the Boss (Mark Twain reference) seems to give to those he saw last in person or on 24/7 TV.  

Who would be next?  Ah, yes, Brother Mattis might talk back once too often.  In that contingency General (Ret) Jack Keane (Fordham accounting man) stands ready in the wings.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Hannity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator

 

"The Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) is an introspective self-report questionnaire with the purpose of indicating differing psychological preferences in how people perceive the world around them and make decisions.^[1][2][3]

The MBTI was constructed by Katharine Cook Briggs and her daughter Isabel Briggs Myers. It is based on the conceptual theory proposed by Carl Jung,^[4] who had speculated that humans experience the world using four principal psychological functions – sensation, intuition, feeling, and thinking – and that one of these four functions is dominant for a person most of the time.^[5]

The MBTI was constructed for normal populations and emphasizes the value of naturally occurring differences.^[6] "The underlying assumption of the MBTI is that we all have specific preferences in the way we construe our experiences, and these preferences underlie our interests, needs, values, and motivation.""  wiki

-------------

The MBTI personality classification test has many detractors but I am not among them.  I tend to classify people on this basis and from empirical observation this  classification is fruitful.  I use this test a lot as well as its descriptive terms so I have thought to provide this reference.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers%E2%80%93Briggs_Type_Indicator

Larry Johnson on the 2016 numbers

(In light of insistance on the left that HC won the legally non-existent "national popular vote" I have decided to re-publish this piece by the vanished Larry Johnson.  pl)

What the Numbers Really Say About the Trump Victory–UPDATED

By Larry Johnson - 

Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Drudge was wrong. Yesterday’s blaring headline that turnout was on pace for 140 million turned out not to be true. In fact, the breathless media reporting about massive turnout is a bit misleading. The total votes cast this year, including third party candidates Stein and Johnson, stands at  123,724,157 million. That about  6 million less than voted for all candidates (including third party) in 2012–129 million.

The number show that Hillary Clinton has 1,322,095 more votes nationally than Donald Trump (as of 8 December).

The difference in the popular vote is entirely because of California. Hillary polled 5,589,936 while Trump trailed with 3,021,095. Hillary had 2.5 million more votes in California than Trump.

However, total votes in California dropped fairly dramatically compared to 2012. There were 2 million fewer votes. That was an exception what was going on in the other battle ground states. If you compare the number of votes in battle ground states this year to the votes in 2012 you see that the vote was basically the same with the exception of Florida, where there was a significant increase:

	Obama	Romney	All Others	Total 2012
FL	4,237,756	4,163,447	72,976	8,474,179
IA	822,544	730,617	29,019	1,582,180
MI	2,564,569	2,115,256	51,136	4,730,961
OH	2,827,709	2,661,437	91,701	5,580,847
PA	2,990,274	2,680,434	82,962	5,753,670
WI	1,620,985	1,407,966	39,483	3,068,434
			TOTAL	29,190,271
	Clinton	Trump	Others	Total 2016
FL	4,485,745	4,605,515	206,007	9,297,267
IA	650,790	798,923	57,322	1,507,035
MI	2,265,935	2,278,621	172,937	4,717,493
OH	2,317,001	2,771,984	168,599	5,257,584
PA	2,844,705	2,912,941	142,653	5,900,299
WI	1,381,923	1,409,282	106,434	2,897,639
			TOTAL	29,577,317

I think it is clear that Trump did generate enthusiasm among those who voted for him. But Trump and Clinton also turned off a lot of voters. A lot of people stayed home, especially in California. The number of voters who “did not show up” looks to be about the same as what happened in 2012 with the exception of California.

Hillary bombed with the African American community and generated little enthusiasm among the Latino community. So much for the “Ola Latina” (that’s Latin Wave in Spanish).

Trump’s victory saves the Supreme Court for tilting sharply to the left and signals to dead beat allies that the United States is no longer going to provide cost free defense assistance. I think those will be two of the significant changes we will see under President Trump.

So, fire away with your thoughts:

Carlson and Dobbs ripped John Bolton a new jingo.

 

(Perhaps this is a new meaning for "jingo")

The rumor is widespread that DJT is seriously thinking of making Ambassador (recess appointment) John Bolton his National Security Adviser if LTG HR McMaster departs the job.  I am no longer a great admirer of McMaster, someone who is suffering Russia and Iran Derangement Syndrome (RIDS), but Bolton?  Bolton?  My god!  Not Bolton!

At one time I had the chore given to me of visiting the State Department from DIA to explain various events.  In the round table discussions at Foggy Bottom John Bolton  seemed ever present.  He was a brooding, glowering, presence seemingly filled with free floating hostility towards alien populations in the lands of the Saracens.  We had a few snarling exchanges.

Tucker Carlson and Lou Dobbs are bêtes noires of the neo-marxist left in the US.  Their evening commentary shows on Fox TV routinely excoriate the Democrats.  They are usually rather friendly to Bolton who is a paid personality on Fox television.  In the two interviews linked they tear Bolton apart.

We should contemplate a future in which Mattis (the Iran hating adult),  Pompeo, the mechanical engineer type, Bolton the jingo and the torturer lady may be a big part of the national security team.

pl 

http://dailycaller.com/2018/03/07/tucker-carlson-john-bolton-iran-iraq-saddam/

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5751667843001/?#sp=show-clips

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_R._Bolton

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson

 

Looks like Mattis is the grown up in the room

(Editorial Comment)

This is a very young Mike Pompeo when he was a first year cadet at West Point in 1983.  He concentrated his study there in Mechanical Engineering and graduated first in his class.  By the time he graduated the war in VN was long over.  He served just enough time to repay his service debt to the army, then resigned his commission to go to law school.  So, he never served in combat.  War is an abstraction to him.  In other words, this is probably a game for Pompeo, a power game played on a global map board.

DJT in announcing Pompeo's nomination to the WH lawn press corps stressed that he and Pompeo had "great chemistry" and that they share the same view of the world.  In other words, Pompeo never disagrees with Trump.    Pompeo is well known for his hard line anti-Iranian views and his unshakable sympathy for Israel.  DJT professes the same views.

At the UN Nikki Haley has now specifically threatened Syria and Russia with attack if the Syrian government does not halt its offensive in East Gouta and the Yarmouk camp. Both are near Damascus.  These two places are mainly defended by jihadis, the largest group of which is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, the Al-Qa'ida branch in Syria.  You remember Al Qa'ida.  They were the people who attacked us on 9/11.  Her threat is for retaliation for use of chemical weapons (chlorine)or just plain old "inhuman suffering" inflicted on the "Syrian People."  This does not seem an idle threat given the number of times she has repeated it.  Someone is telling her to say this.  Haley has cabinet rank and does not answer to the State Department.  My guess is that she is listening closely to AIPAC and the neocons like John Bolton.

At the same time Russia has made it clear that they will fight to protect their ally and interests in Syria.  They have been quite plain spoken about that and they included both US aircraft and ships in the threat.  I note that the Admiral Essen, a Russian missile shooting frigate sortied from Sebastopol today.

I think that Pompeo's nomination and his eventual confirmation brings the world closer to a US-Russia war.  If that happens it will be difficult if not impossible to keep the war from escalating toward the use of nuclear weapons.  Israel wants war, a wrecking war with Iran.  Israel wants the US to win that war for Israel.  IMO Israel would be wrecked in such a war whatever the outcome.  This is an August, 1914 moment.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-tillerson-ousted-20180313-story.html 

A Mars vehicle by next year?

 

 "Those hopper flights would go up to an altitude of several kilometers. "We'll do flights of increasing complexity," he said last month, including tests of heat shield technology.

Musk didn't provide new testing details in his SXSW interview, and offered a cautionary note about schedules. "People have told me that my timelines historically have been optimistic," he said. "So I'm trying to recalibrate to some degree here." That echoed his comments in Ausralia last year, where he described a schedule that called for the launch of the first BFR missions to Mars in 2022 "aspirational.

The interview covered a wide range of other topics, from his leadership of electric vehicle company Tesla to founding the tunneling startup The Boring Company to his concerns about artificial intelligence. He also stressed his worries about a war or other calamity setting back civilization on Earth, a motivation for establishing a presence on Mars."  space.com

---------------

The Big Falcon Rocket is Musk's space ship for the establishment of a first permanent colony on Mars.   He is building a vessel that will have a reusable first stage and a second stage that is the Mars lander.  He intends to start testing the second stage as a separate unit next year in what he call "hopper" jumps with flights of increasing difficulty proceeding to LEO flights fairly soon.   Because of the re usability factor a launch to LEO is expected to cost $6 million.  This is a low relative cost.  Interestingly he plans to produce fuel for the rocket and food for the crew on the surface of Mars.

At the same time he says he hopes that SpaceX' success in the Mars effort will bring more commercial players into this business.  pl  

 https://www.space.com/39945-elon-musk-spacex-bfr-mars-rocket-sxsw.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/11/elon-musk-says-mars-spaceship-will-be-ready-for-short-trips-by-first-half-of-2019.html

HARPER: WHAT IS DRIVING THE NEW PUSH FOR AUMF?

After years of sitting back and letting Congressional authority to declare war transfer to the Executive Branch, it appears that some leading Members of the House and Senate are finally waking up to the consequences of their failure.  On February 27, the House Progressive Caucus and the House Liberty Caucus joined forces to hold a hearing on the illegal wars raging in Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, demanding that Congress take back the war powers authority.  The succession of regime change wars of the post 9/11 period have all been justified by the Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) that was passed in the immediate aftermath of the attacks on the World Trade Towers and the Pentagon.

The same day, 100 House Members wrote to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan demanding a new debate on an AUMF related to the ongoing US military operations in Syria.  Among the lead signers of the letter was Tom Cole, the fourth ranking Republican in the House.  The next day, Senators Bernie Sanders, Chris Murphy and Mike Lee sponsored a resolution demanding an immediate debate and vote on an AUMF on the US engagement in Yemen, which the sponsors asserted was clearly a military action under the War Powers Resolution.

Whether these actions go anywhere is anyone's guess at this point.  The more immediate question is:  What caused the sudden wake up?  Could it be that the ongoing US engagement in Syria is bringing the United States closer by the day to a confrontation with Russia?  The situation on the ground in Syria has gotten more and more hazardous in the wake of the routing of ISIS in Raqqa.  It is hard to tell, day to day, whether a major incident is going to take place, involving rival parties Turkey, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, the Shia militias, the remnants of ISIS and Al Qaeda, who still have well-armed forces on the ground.  Both Russia and the United States have maintained air and ground forces in Syria.  The recent incident involving Shia militias, with Russian mercenaries attacking a Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters with US Special Forces present, resulted in US bombings of the pro-Assad forces, with an unclear number of Russians killed.

How much closer do we have to get to an incident which escalates out of control before Congress finally decides to end the string of illegal wars?  It was one thing to illegally invade Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen--who possess second rate military forces at best.  It is another thing to be engaging in a conflict that could draw the United States and Russia into a direct confrontation.

I cannot say for certain that this is why more than the usual handful of Members of Congress are sounding the alarm.  But I hope so.

" ... we have no idea, because we aren’t even seeking answers." Christopher Mellon

 

"Is it possible that America has been technologically leap-frogged by Russia or China? Or, as many people wondered after the videos were first published by the New York Times in December, might they be evidence of some alien civilization? 

Unfortunately, we have no idea, because we aren’t even seeking answers.

I served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for intelligence for the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and as staff director for the Senate Intelligence Committee, and I know from numerous discussions with Pentagon officials over the past two years that military departments and agencies treat such incidents as isolated events rather than as part of a pattern requiring serious attention and investigation. A colleague of mine at To the Stars Academy, Luis Elizondo, used to run a Pentagon intelligence program that examined evidence of “anomalous” aircraft, but he resigned last fall to protest government inattention to the growing body of empirical data. 

Meanwhile, reports from different services and agencies remain largely ignored and unevaluated inside their respective bureaucratic stovepipes. There is no Pentagon process for synthesizing all the observations the military is making."  Mellon

*********

"Christopher K. 'Chris' Mellon (born October 2, 1957), was the former United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and later for Security and Information Operations. He is also a writer and businessman. He is a member of the Mellon Family, and the son of Karl N. Mellon, the great-grandson of Gulf Oil co-founder William Larimer Mellon.

Christopher Mellon is a descendant of Thomas Mellon, founder of Mellon Bank. He received his Bachelor of Arts Degree in Economics from Colby College in 1980. He earned his master's degree from Yale University in International Relations, with a concentration in finance and management in 1984."  wiki

------------

This Mellon is clearly not a lightweight.  His concern with government inability to deal with phenomena that the SJs of the world have not had their noses rubbed in is noteworthy  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/the-military-keeps-encountering-ufos-why-doesnt-the-pentagon-care/2018/03/09/242c125c-22ee-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html?utm_term=.a5c47b8105e5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Mellon

Democrats announce victory plan for 2018

"This week, Congressional Democrats released a detailed tax hike plan that they promised to implement if given majority control of the House and Senate after the 2018 midterm elections. So much for the crocodile tears about the deficit--Democrats want to raise taxes not to reduce the debt, but rather to spend that tax hike money on boondoggle projects.

As you might expect, hold onto your wallets."

-------------------

OK.  That will work. (irony) So, they will raise both corporate and personal income taxes if they gain control of the congress.  That will work as a political program (irony).  The California state government will probably back that. (no irony)

Well, there is always Stormy Daniels to fall back on as an issue.  She was interviewed outside a strip joint yesterday where she was to perform.  "You call me a whore? she said.  I tell you I am a successful whore."  I suppose the idea is to alienate Trump's evangelical base from him.  Oh, well, this theme rings  a bit hollow.  Trump's base knew what they were voting for ...  pl 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanellis/2018/03/09/democrats-release-tax-hike-plan/#45c6c0367b9e

Who is diddling who in Syria just now?

(editorial comment)

The SAA is allowing surrendered  jihadis from the fighting around Damascus to be bused up to Idlib to join the intra-rebel war there.  Is this mere cleverness like the German infection of Russia with Bolsheviks in 1917 or is it an indication that the SAG believes/understands that there is a deal between Russia and Turkey over a de facto partition of NW Syria in which Turkey has been allowed a sector which  includes some or all of Idlib Province? pl

 

https://southfront.org/jaysh-al-islam-approves-evacuation-of-hts-fighters-from-east-ghouta-first-group-leaves-towards-idlib-photos/ 

 

Soros? "Follow the money."

 

 "In a Daily Caller op-ed calling the Russian meddling narrative a "false public manipulation," Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska claims that Daniel Jones - a former FBI investigator, Feinstein staffer and now a Fusion GPS operative - told the Russian Oligarch's lawyer in March, 2017 that Fusion GPS was funded by "a group of Silicon Valley billionaires and George Soros.""  Zerohedge

------------

Now, this is something different.  I have no idea what the relative truthiness of this may be, but...  pl 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-09/russian-billionaire-claims-fusion-gps-funded-soros

The Intel Community Lie About Russian Meddling by Publius Tacitus

Americans tend to be a trusting lot. When they hear a high level government official, like former Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper, state that Russia’s Vladimir ordered and monitored a Russian cyber attack on the 2016 Presidential election, those trusting souls believe him. For experienced intelligence professionals, who know how the process of gathering and analyzing intelligence works, they detect a troubling omission in Clapper’s presentation and, upon examining the so-called “Intelligence Community Assessment,” discover that document is a deceptive fraud. It lacks actual evidence that Putin and the Russians did what they are accused of doing. More troubling—and this is inside baseball—is the fact that two critical members of the Intelligence Community—the DIA and State INR—were not asked to coordinate/clear on the assessment. 

 

You should not feel stupid if you do not understand or appreciate the last point. That is something only people who actually have produced a Community Assessment would understand. I need to take you behind the scenes and ensure you understand what is intelligence and how analysts assess and process that intelligence. Once you understand that then you will be able to see the flaws and inadequacies in the report released by Jim Clapper in January 2017.

 

The first thing you need to understand is the meaning of the term, the “Intelligence Community” aka IC. Comedians are not far off the mark in touting this phrase as the original oxymoron. On paper the IC currently is comprised of 17 agencies/departments:

 

1. Air Force Intelligence, 
2. Army Intelligence, 
3. Central Intelligence Agency aka CIA, 
4. Coast Guard Intelligence, 
5. Defense Intelligence Agency aka DIA, 
6. Energy Department aka DOE, 
7. Homeland Security Department, 
8. State Department aka INR, 
9. Treasury Department, 
10. Drug Enforcement Administration aka DEA, 
11. Federal Bureau of Investigation aka FBI, 
12. Marine Corps Intelligence, 
13. National Geospatial Intelligence Agency aka NGIA or NGA, 
14. National Reconnaissance Office aka NRO, 
15. National Security Agency aka NSA, 
16. Navy Intelligence 
17. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

AIPAC's senator and his apparent desire to silence Americans,

 

"“This bill is unconstitutional because it seeks to impose the government’s political views on Americans who choose to express themselves through boycotts,” said Ben Wizner, director of the ACLU Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project. “The proposed changes are improvements, but the revised bill continues to penalize participants in political boycotts in violation of the First Amendment. If it is enacted in this form and takes effect, we will strongly consider fighting it in court.”

The bill seeks to prohibit companies from providing information to multilateral institutions such as the United Nations and the European Union that could be used to publicly list businesses operating in the West Bank. The latest version of the bill would make US-based companies and their employees legally liable if they “comply with, further or support” attempts by foreign countries or “international governmental organizations” to either boycott Israel or “to collect information” that could lead to a boycott."  Al-Monitor

-------------------

The ACLU says it MAY sue over this if it becomes law?  How could they not?  In its original form this AIPAC driven proposal would have subjected violators to a 20 year possible prison sentence for the expression of their opinion regarding Israel's seizures of Palestinian lands and the brutality of the IDF and Shin Bet in those territories held by Israel as spoils of war.  As originally written the law would have applied to all Americans as well as corporate America.  In other words SST would have become a criminal enterprise for the expression of our opinions and I would have been criminalized as the proprietor of this digital forum.

This current version "merely" punishes corporations and their employees for opposition to Israeli colonialism.

Can there be any doubt that Cardin's real loyalty is not to the United States? pl 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/03/israel-anti-boycott-bill-closer-passing-senate-revisions.html?utm_campaign=20180307&utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Daily%20Newsletter

The Turks are IMO planning to acquire NW Syria

"On March 5, the Pentagon announced that Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the area of Afrin had led to an “operational pause” in US-led efforts against ISIS in eastern Syria.

Pentagon spokesman Colonel Robert Manning added that the operational pause had not affected US strikes on ISIS and the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces still control territory it had seized.

Another Pentagon spokesman, Major Adrian Rankine-Galloway, said:

“Some fighters operating within the SDF have decided to leave operations in the middle Euphrates river valley to fight elsewhere, possibly in Afrin.”

Thus, Washington at least admitted that the YPG was the main if not only ground striking force of the SDF. Various US officials had repeatedly claimed that the SDF consisted of some mysterious Arab-dominated forces with some YPG presence.

On the other hand, the US will be able to justify their further military presence in eastern Syria with “we are fighting ISIS” mantra now as long as its operation is on “pause”."  SF

--------------

The East Gouta operation goes on apace.  That ought to be over in a week or so.

In the meantime The Turks and their FSA friends are steadily grinding their way forward toward Afrin City from several directions.

DoD's spokesman states above that ground operations against IS east of the Euphrates have of necessity been ended for the time because many YPG fighters have gone to Afrin to resist the Turks  This must be causing a real identity crisis in DoD  They are are caught up in an effort to square the circle by standing by "our" Kurds while not getting completely crosswise with Turkey.  That is an impossible effort that will break down when "our" Kurds are being massacred by the Turkish Armed Forces.  Evidently the SAG and the YPG Kurds still cannot agree on SAG authority in Afrin.  That is a recipe for defeat at the hands of the Turks.

Sultan Tayyip I has been making revelatory and deluded statements.  1.  He told the US he will give us an Ottoman slap.  2.  He said that "we Turks will ride tanks where our ancestors rode horses."  3. He made a speech in which he told a little girl that she will be honored if she dies for the future of Turkey.  She cried.  4.  He has told reservists that they should be prepared to be called up for combat in Syria. 

I think he is far gone in irredentist reveries.  It is true that he wants to kill as many Kurds as possible , but IMO he mainly lusts to regain NW Syria.  pl 

https://southfront.org/pentagon-halts-operations-against-isis-in-eastern-syria-because-ypg-members-move-to-fight-turkish-forces-in-afrin/

White Helmet Films, Inc. ?

 

 "A pro-government media activist, Penelope Stafyla, has released a series of photos reportedly showing a media studio of the White Helmets, which produces “evidence of Assad regime war crimes” in the Eastern Ghouta region, near the Syrian capital of Damascus.

These photos are especially interesting amid criculating reports about a new “chemical attack” by the “Assad regime” in Eastern Ghouta. The new “chemical attack” came amid large gains by government forces against militants groups in the area and allegedly injured over 30 people."  SF

-------------

The photos may come from a feature film being produced concerning propaganda operations.  pl 

https://southfront.org/in-photos-white-helmets-media-studio-producing-evidence-of-assad-regime-war-crimes/

Trumps Trade Wars by Walrus.

President Trump is allegedly going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum next week. When the European Union questioned his wisdom in doing this, he doubled down by threatening to impose tariffs on European car imports. He is also alleged to have said "trade wars are easy to win". This is madness and ultimately bad for America. The President seems fixated on trade imbalances and sees an easy and wrong solution to the American trade deficit which last year was 566 billion dollars. His take on this is that "its not fair" that America can't export more - the cause of the deficit is those dastardly furriners  are conspiring against American industry. This is childish.

I will not go into detail about specifics of the product mismatches between America and the rest of the world that are part of the export problem, anyone who has ever been to say, London or Amsterdam would know that a Dodge Ram would be entirely out of place. My main observation, based on a lifetime of experience with manufacturers facing international competition, is that tariffs are an addictive drug for lazy and incompetent business management, featherbedding unionists and bad government. All tariffs do is put off the day when the toxic combination of bad management, lack of investment, poor work practices, rotten infrastructure, overpriced energy, excessive regulation and bad government become too much of a cost for the community to bear.

To put that another way, if you are working for a manufacturing company that is internationally competitive and well run, how would you like it if your raw materials, Steel and Aluminum, suddenly became 25% more expensive next week? ...  And all to protect some lazy SOB down the road who hasn't invested in his plant for thirty years? Then there is the question of foreign retaliation.

The correct response to a trade imbalance is to find out why your product isn't selling and fix it. For example American cars are oversized gas guzzlers in the eyes of the rest of the world, that is why they don't sell, but nobody in Detroit seems to want to make what the rest of the world wants, instead they cry to uncle Donald.

Ultimately, Trumpian tariffs will hurt the internationally competitive sectors of American industry while merely postponing the day when the uncompetitive sectors must modernize or go under...and the result is always a net loss of jobs. 

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-trade-deficit-causes-effects-trade-partners-3306276

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-tariffs-eu-cars-import-trade-war-a8238426.html 

Will the War Clouds Pass Us By, Or Will the Storm Break? by Alastair Crooke

    

The compulsive hatred of President Putin in élite western circles has surpassed anything witnessed during the Cold War.  Western states have been hyping political hostility in almost every sphere: In Syria, in Ukraine, across the Middle East, in Eurasia, and now, this hatred has leached into the Security Council, leaving it irretrievably polarised -- and paralysed.  This hostility has percolated too, across to all Russia’s allies, contaminating them. It potends – almost inevitably – further sanctions on Russia (and its friends) under the catch-all Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.  But the real question is: Does this collective hysteria portend war?

Ed Curtis reminds us of the almost parabolic escalation of antagonism in recent weeks: 

“This has happened as the Russia-gate claims have fallen to pieces … All across the media spectrum, from the big name corporate stenographers like The New York Times, CNN, National Public Radio, The Washington Post to The Atlantic and Nation magazines and other “leftist” publications such as Mother Jones and Who What Why, the Russia and Putin bashing has become hysterical in tone, joined as it is with an anti-Trump obsession … “Russia Sees Midterm Elections as a Chance to Sow Fresh Discord (NY Times, 2/13), “Russia Strongman [Putin] haspulled off one of the greatest acts of political sabotage in modern history” (The Atlantic, Jan. /Feb. 2018), “Mueller’s Latest Indictment Shows Trump Has Helped Putin Cover Up a Crime” (Mother Jones, 2/16/18), “A Russian Sightseeing Tour For Realists” (whowhatwhy.com, 2/7/18), etc.”

By casting Russia’s interference in the US presidential election as “an attack on American democracy” and thus “an act of war”, the ‘Covert American State’ is saying – implicitly - that just as the act of war at Pearl Harbour brought a retaliatory war upon Japan, so, pari passu, Russia’s effort to subvert America require similar retribution.

Across the Middle East – but especially in Syria – there is ample dry tinder for a conflagration, with incipient or existing conflicts between Turkey and the Kurds; between the Turkish Army and the Syrian Army; between Turkish forces and American forces in Manbij; between Syrian forces and American forces; between American forces and the USAF, and Russian servicemen and Russia’s aerospace forces; between American forces and Iranian forces, and last but not least, between Israel and Syria.

This is one heck of a pile of combustible material.  Plainly any incident amidst such compressed volatility may escalate dangerously.  But this is not the point.  The point is: Does all this Russia hysteria imply that the US is contemplating a war of choice against Russia, or in support of a re-set of the Middle East landscape to Israel’s and Saudi Arabia’s benefit?  Will the US deliberately provoke Russia – by killing Russian servicemen, for example – in order to find pretext for a ‘bloody nose’ military action launched against Russia itself – for responding to the American provocation?

Inadvertent war is a distinct possibility, of course: Both Israel and Saudi Arabia are experiencing domestic leadership crises. Israel may overreach, and America may overreach, too, in its desire to support Israel. Indeed the constant portrayal of the US President as Putin’s puppet is pursued, of course, to taunt Trump into proving the opposite - by authorizing some or other action against Russia – albeit against his better instincts.

 At the Munich Security Conference, PM Netanyahu said:

“For some time I've been warning about this development [Iran’s alleged plan to complete a Shi’i crescent] I’ve made clear in word and deed that Israel has red lines it will enforce. Israel will continue to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence in Syria … We will act without hesitation to defend ourselves. And we will act, if necessary, not just against Iran's proxies that are attacking us, but against Iran itself.” 

And, at the same conference, US National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster warned Saturday against increased Iranian efforts to support its proxies in the Middle East, saying the “time is now” to act against Tehran.

But what did McMaster mean by “time is now to act”?  Is he encouraging Israel to attack Hizbullah or Iranian-linked forces in Syria?  This, almost certainly, would lead to a three or four front war for Israel; yet there are good grounds for believing that the Israeli security establishment does not want to risk a three front war.  Possibly, McMaster was thinking more of full-spectrum hybrid, or COIN war, but not conventional war, especially since Israel cannot, any longer (after the shoot down of its F16), be sure of its air dominance, without which, it cannot expect, or hope, to prevail.

As senior Israeli officials complain about the gap between US rhetoric and action, General Josef Votel, the commander of Centcom, stated explicitly, by way of confirmation of the differing view, at a hearing in Congress on 28 February that, “countering Iran is not one of the coalition missions in Syria”. 

SYRIA LEAKS: SUITES, PROPAGANDA AND DIVIDENDS (presented by Publius Tacitus)

Let's be clear. I did not write the following article. I came across this article (in French) that, in my opinion, is a must read. It is published at http://prochetmoyen-orient.ch/syrieleaks-suites-propagande-et-dividendes/ by Richard Labévière.

It is a good reminder of how much propaganda is being pushed in the west to portray the Syrians and Russians and Iranians as evil beasts while touting America as a band of angels. The author of the following piece reminds us that after World War II the United States knowingly and happily recruited and relied on Nazis who played a direct role in the murder of thousands of Jews. One of those was Klaus Barbie, the butcher of Lyon. Anyway, please enjoy the following.

Beirut, February 26, 2017.

At the request of several readers and listeners, we return to our "exclusive information" of last week (19 February 2018), published by prochetmoyen-orient.ch (number 166): "Syrieleaks: a British diplomatic cable unveils Western strategy ".

It is the legendary Pierre Lazareff who said that "for a journalist, to release an exclusivity is always a test, if not a pain". And the boss of France-Soir did not yet know the digital networks (misnamed "social networks"), Fake News and future laws on Fake News ...

 

Field Report: Is Dr. Strangelove Holding Court in Netanyahu's Inner Cabinet by Decameron

 

 

 

Could Israel drag the United States into war with Iran, starting with escalating the attacks on Iranian positions in Syria?  Speakers at the March 2 conference, the Israel Lobby and American Policy 2018,  convened by the Institute for Research on Middle East Policy (IRMEP) and Washington Report on Middle East Affairs (WRMEA) argued that that is exactly what Netanyahu wants, and that Dr. Strangelove is alive and well in the Prime Minister's  inner security cabinet.  Just a couple of weeks ago, at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, Bibi was seen clownishly holding up a fragment of an alleged Iranian drone in a call for international action against Israel’s existential enemy Iran.  (Recall Bibi's Iran Bomb cartoon at the UN General Assembly).

But on March 2, the day of the IRMEP/WRMEA conference that exposed Israel’s crimes – true crimes, if you accept international law, which as law professor Noura Erakat pointed out, Israel doesn't—there was warmonger Netanyahu over in Israel being grilled for hours by Israeli police.  Not a good day for the Prime Minister's march to war, nor for the Israel Lobby, and its crown jewel, AIPAC, whose annual powwow convenes in Washington on March 4^th.

The folks at the IRMEP/WRMEA confab expressed determination to counter Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the brutal, "sadistic" occupation of the Palestinian territories in the West Bank and to build momentum for the Boycott, Disinvest, and Sanction (BDS) campaign, which Haaretz's Gideon Levy, expressing his deep-seated anti-Zionism, underscored as "the only game in town" that could counter Israel's occupation "addiction."   Even in its infancy, Levy noted, the BDS  provoked hysterical overkill both in Israel and the US.  And if AIPAC and its allies in Congress like Maryland's Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin have their way, it will be a federal crime to refuse to buy Israeli products because of its criminal brutality in the Occupied Palestinian territories.  You can boycott Palestinian products, or the goods from African countries, or from China, or from whomever you want, but never boycott Israel, reported several speakers, citing the Israel Lobby, the Israeli government, and a US based "amen" chorus.  Some of Netanyahu's most ardent supporters are not Jewish at all, they're the Christian Evangelicals.   

"Universal" means "All." Re-published 3 March 2018

 

The Democrats and their corporate media friends are obviously determined to exploit the media driven frenzy that has emerged since the Orlando massacre.    After many efforts to de-rail Trump's campaign they feel sure that THIS TIME they've got him.   He, of course, assists them every time he opens his mouth off script.   

The ghosts of Sandy Hook hover over the present scene and are cited by the Democrats as arguments.   Well, pilgrims, the crazy kid at Sandy Hook did not buy any guns or ammunition.  His mother bought all that and then gave him unrestricted access to the ordnance with which he killed her in her sleep and then proceeded in his madness to the school.  His mother had legally bought the instruments of her own destruction from a licensed gun dealer who ran the required on-line background checks on her.  She passed the checks easily.  She had no criminal record.  She had no mental illness record.  She had local residence.  Therefore, she passed.  Conclusion - The system worked and then this silly woman gave lethal weapons to her insane son.

The phrase "universal background checks" is heard everywhere in the media and in Congress.  Let us be honest and not hide behind semantic trickery.  UNIVERSAL background checks would require any transfer of a firearm to be approved by the federal government.  This inevitably and perhaps incrementally would be extended to all private transfers.  That is what UNIVERSAL means.  The professional gun control people and their politician allies tell you that the "reasonable"  restrictions on gun ownership and purchases that they are pushing for are very modest things that will have only a minor effect on "ordinary" Americans.  They lie.  Their ultimate goal is the reduction of Americans to the status of wards of the state, protected like farm animals by their keepers.  This "protected" status would supposedly safeguard all the fearful from their enemies.  Gun control laws in Europe are very tight but their protective effect was noticeably absent at the Bataclan.

Read Federalist # 46.  Take the time to read it.   

A disarmed America would be just another stockyard feed pen.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federalist_No._46

Putin: Listen to Russia Now by Willy B

Rusian President Vladimir Putin delivered his State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly, yesterday, and while his lengthy remarks covered the gamut of policy issues in Russia, it was his remarks on nuclear policy and weapons that garnered headlines around the world.

"I believe it as my duty to say this: any use of nuclear weapons of any yield - small, medium or whatever - against Russia or its allies will be regarded as a nuclear attack against our country. Retaliation will be instant with all the ensuing consequences," Putin said to draw loud applause from the audience. He warned that "nobody should have any doubts on that score." At the same time Putin cautioned against creating new threats to the world, "but on the contrary to come to the negotiating table to give thought to an updated, future system of international security and the civilization’s sustainable development."

Though the new weapons that Putin described were not a response to the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, released last month, he directly attack aspects of that document. "Some of the provisions of the updated US nuclear strategy review, which reduces the threshold for using nuclear weapons, trigger tremendous concern. One can try to calm down anyone behind the scenes as one chooses, but we read what has been written. It is written in such a way that it can be used in response to a conventional weapon strike or even in response to a cyberthreat," Putin noted. He stated that in its military doctrine, Russia "reserves the right to use nuclear weapons only in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies or in the event of aggression with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is jeopardized."

My Analytic Tools

Epistemology:

1-Duck Rule: If it walks like a duck, squawks like a duck and has feathers, it probably is a duck.

2–Sherlock’s Rule: When considering a problem, remove everything from consideration which seems untrue. What is left is probably the truth.

3-Occam’s Razor: In considering a complex phenomenon with many factors and a variety of explanations, remember that the simplest explanation that accounts for the factors is probably correct.

4- The KISS principal” “Keep it Simple, Stupid.” (Army Rule) pl

Everglades Challenge 2018 - TTG

Ratty knows the score. To be on the water in any kind of craft can be therapeutic. IMHO the sound of the surf can only be equalled by the sound of the wind in the pines. Both together… heaven. You can’t buy that kind of therapy with a million dollars. One of the saddest things I often saw on the streets of DC was the herds of young, ambitious suits with ear buds in their ears, eyes and thumbs glued to their smartphones, totally oblivious to their surroundings. Borg aspirants, no? It is no wonder so much self serving and destructive idiocy is produced in Washington. As I have said for so many years now, I think we deserve a break... or at least a little vicarious diversion from the madness that surrounds us. 

Funny how this rings true year after year, no matter what changes occur in Washington. Once again, I invite the SST Committee of Correspondence to follow the running of the Everglades Challenge which begins this Saturday morning. The event is organized by a colorful group of adventurers who call themselves the Water Tribe. The Everglades Challenge is an unsupported, expedition style adventure race for kayaks, canoes, and small sailboats. It starts at Fort DeSoto in Saint Petersburg, Florida and ends at Key Largo. The distance is roughly 300 nautical miles depending on one's course selection. Updates on the progress and tribulations of the participants will be posted on the Water Tribe forums. There is also a WaterTribe Facebook page. It’s a closed group, but they let me in so they can’t be too picky. The boats are tracked by SPOT satellite. Their progress can be seen on this tracking map. There is also a tracking map provided through Race Owl. Between the two, the event should be well covered. 

To truly get a feel for this event, I recommend you set aside an hour and a half to view this video about the 2013 running of the Everglades Challenge. There’s some excellent banjo and fiddle work as well.