To War, To War, This Country’s Going to War” - TTG

I’m afraid the recent “defensive attack” by US attack helicopters and artillery on Syrian tribesmen loyal to Damascus is not just a one-off fluke. It is a feature of the current US policy in Syria that will most likely result in another full blown war in the region… one that will put the US on a track to war with Russia. 

First, here’s an account of the fighting southeast of Deir Ezzor on the eastern side of the Euphrates taken from the twitter feed of Maxim A. Suchkov, Russian editor for Al-Monitor. I’ve put it into prose form and corrected some spelling/grammar for easier reading.

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“Russia’s Defense Ministry on US-coalition killing of 100+ pro-Assad forces: "The incident once again exposed true American intentions in Syria which is not the fight against terrorism but seizure &  control of economic assets." Russia’s MoD version of the incident:"On Feb.7, a Syrian pro-Assad militia was making an incursion to destroy a terrorist group which had been sporadically shelling pro-gov positions.The SYR militia was near El Isba, former oil refinery, 17 km south-east of Salkhiyakh. Suddenly, the Syrian pro-Assad militia came under mortar and multiple artillery rocket system fire, shortly followed by US helicopter strikes. 25 militiamen were wounded (no mention of how many killed). Russia's MoD suggests the US attack on pro-Assad militia were made possible because "the militia movements hadn’t been coordinated with the Russian military there." Following the attack Russia hosted reps of US coalition forces in Khmeymim airbase for talks during which according to Moscow, US told the oil refinery was under SDF and US control (which probably was meant to say "stay out" and what prompted Russian response on US trying to seize Syrian economic assets). Finally, Russian MoD claims attacks on Syrian pro-gov positions are getting more frequent over recent days from settlements of Mazlum, Al-Tabiya, and Ksh Sham. Moscow references its military radio intercepts saying it's done by one of ISIS "sleeper cells."  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

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Maxim A. Suchov continues with the Russian reaction to the attack.

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Follow-up on Moscow’s reaction to US strike on Syrian pro-gov forces: 

1. Russia's UN Ambassador Nebenzya will raise the issue at the upcoming UN Security Council closed-door briefing on the humanitarian situation in Syria.
2. Moscow is now conducting a thorough investigation of the incident, Russia’s MFA asks "How could a decision to open a massive fire to defeat the Syrian militiamen be made in such a short period of time [between SDF attacks and time US aviation came to the field]?”
3. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova: "US military presence in Syria presents a serious challenge to the peace process and thwarts the protection of the country's territorial integrity."
4. Russia’s MFA spox Zakharova: "A 55-kilometer zone unilaterally created by US around mil base near al-Tanf used by scattered units of Daesh terrorists [who] have opportunity to hide from gov forces in area as well as regroup and prepare for new raids in the Syrian deserts"  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

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An editorial in the pro-Turkish government paper “The Daily Sabah” lays the blame squarely on the shoulders of an out of control Pentagon and rogue CENTCOM generals. In so many words, they call on Trump to grow a pair and correct the situation. The full editorial is well worth reading.

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“During his 2016 election campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump kept asking: "Why are we in Syria and Afghanistan?" He called for an end to entanglements abroad and a focus on domestic problems. President Barack Obama's Syria policy was based on little more than indifference and, the Trump administration just automatically adopted it.

After all these years, the U.S. still does not have a good grasp on what its policies on Syria are. What does it want to achieve? What is its endgame? What kind of timeframe has it settled on to achieve its objectives? American politicians seem clueless about what they have gotten themselves into.

No one knows who is in charge of the U.S.'s Syria policy. Chaos reigns. Who do we call to ask what the U.S. is doing in Syria?

It seems that with no lead from the top, United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has decided it is the boss. While operationally, it is good that soldiers are in charge, it seems soldiers have also taken over the decision making that should be under the purview of elected officials. CENTCOM and its officers now make statements, formulate strategies and even conduct diplomacy. Turkey has a history of power-hungry generals seeing themselves as guardians of the country and the U.S. is well-advised not to repeat it.”  (Daily Sabah)

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Maxim Suchkov holds out a similar hope that Trump, himself, will step in and right the ship. He retweeted Trump and provided a comment to that tweet.

“I will be meeting with Henry Kissinger at 1:45pm. Will be discussing North Korea, China and the Middle East.” (@realDonaldTrump)

“Very interesting given Kissinger has now long been Putin’s go-to on messaging of Russia’s own position on same issues. Putin also holds Kissinger in high regard, seeking his wisdom, experience and balanced analysis of US-related matters."  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

I certainly hope Suchkov and the editors at The Daily Sabah are correct and that our current course in Syria is a temporary result of Trump’s inattention. The thought that a simple rage-filled outburst, accompanied by a few firings, can correct our course is oddly reassuring. However, I also have my doubts. Are the generals deflecting Trump by mentioning we control the Syrian oilfields when the President brings up the issue? Are the generals filling the President’s head with fears of Hezbollah and IRGC hordes running rampant across Syria?

Al-Monitor has an article out today extensively quoting Secretary of Defense Mattis. He downplays the role of Russia in Syria and Russian influence over Assad. He seems to be downplaying the risks that our aggressive talk and actions in Syria could lead to a confrontation with Russia. Well I think this jarhead is full of crap this time. To reinforce this man’s fullness of crap, a story appears this morning in Al Masdar News about attacks by the US controlled Deir Ezzor Military Council on SAA and NDF forces in Khashim and Tabiyyah on the Eastern shore of the Euphrates. Unlike the YPG/SDF, the Deir Ezzor Military Council is on the direct payroll of the State Department. This is a dangerous game we are playing.

TTG

https://twitter.com/msuchkov_alm

https://www.dailysabah.com/editorial/2018/02/08/us-generals-turning-into-warlords-in-syria-hijacking-us-foreign-policy

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/pentagon-play-down-russia-influence-syria-clash-sdf.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-us-led-forces-launch-offensive-syrian-army-deir-ezzor/

Comments

[Morongobill]

Makes me long for the "best and brightest."

[Morongobill]

Sounds a little like "peoplekind."

[Sid_finster]

Sociopaths learn only from reward and punishment, but they do learn.

[Outrage Beyond]

re: Kissinger told Newsweek that Jared Kushner is brilliant and can bring peace to the ME.

Jared Kushner was not smart enough to get into Harvard on his own. His daddy had to pay $2.5 million as a "donation" to buy his admission.

"New Jersey real estate developer Charles Kushner had pledged $2.5 million to Harvard University in 1998, not long before his son Jared was admitted to the prestigious Ivy League school."

Source: https://www.propublica.org/article/the-story-behind-jared-kushners-curious-acceptance-into-harvard

[Account Deleted]

Well put Bill Herschel. We are somewhat beyond good and evil WRT wars in the ME. The choice is more fundamental; order or chaos.

[St P]

You could be mistaken on that. Some claim Bernie Sanders voters voted for Trump because there was nowhere else for the antiwar constituency to go. Further, some experts claim those Bernie renegades swung the election for Trump (without crediting why they switched of course).

[St P]

AIPAC, JINSA, ZOA etc along w/ IDF is running our foreign policy and military policy. In their own words. In that context everything makes sense and is indeed predictable. Or as the neocons relentlessly insisted in the preIraq invasion of 2003: "inevitable".
US beefed up forces for joint Juniper Cobra drill in Israel over last week moved it into a 'done deal'.

[English Outsider]

Laura - I suppose any politician's chances of incipient dementia are much the same as for the rest of us. Our Great Leader over here looks safe enough. Incipient desperation, perhaps, given what she's go to cope with, though desperation is probably clinical proof of sanity these days in UK politics.

But this? - " Actually, the fact that folks say he used to read and also used to have a wider range of conversation topics leads me to wonder if dementia is part of this story."

I don't know about the reading. Can politicians read? Never seen that mentioned before on SST but I'll take your word for it. And one would assume that a man who suddenly finds himself President of the United States wouldn't have as much time for chat as he used to. But on your general point take just one past example. Clinton was impressively sharp and absorbed information like a sponge, often knowing more details than his generals or advisors. So much so that one wonders whether he ever stopped to think where it was all going.

In fact Civil Servants conscientiously put masses of information in front of their bosses and as a rule their bosses conscientiously plough through it all. The result is that the bosses can't see the wood for the trees. Also Civil Servants are a cautious breed and tend to play safe and affirm the status quo. Trump wasn't elected to do status quo. I'd like to see him, and other politicians too, putting in more time on the golf course, not less, and doing a bit of pondering.

[Kooshy]

I agree and believe that’s true, I am one of those Bernie voters who voted for Trump. Now I wish he wouldn’t have been such an easy pushover, though, I no longer believe he was a real contender. Unfortunately at our own hand and doings, a general mass public laziness, elections in this country, have become a sad and useless event.

[Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg]

A lot better to use a touch of humor;"A swift kick to the IDF's 'nads " is less racist sounding.

[Karel Whitman]

Well put Bill Herschel. We are somewhat beyond good and evil WRT wars in the ME. The choice is more fundamental; order or chaos.

Barbara Ann, both you and Bill are experts in Russian/German language, literature, history and culture? May not have paid enough attention to your contributions so far.

Russian itself is probably a dying language. It certainly is a difficult language. (German is certainly a dying language, in passing, a language whose body of literature is pitiful and grotesque in comparison to Russian literature).

The Russian language is gonna die? How? Comparable to Latin? Or the Greek Koine? The latter would be a bad example since there is still modern Greek after all. And Modern Hebrew, Ivrit, isn't exactly the ancient Hebrew of the script either, but still exists. What would be the historical precedent for the Russian language to die? Latin? Well complex path to Italian too.

But yes a synthetic versus analytic language may be easier to learn. Thus no doubt has a better chance to become lingua franca.

What's your vision? After Russians bring peace, establish order they give up their language and shift to English? Or would you allow them to keep their language while using English as some type of lingua franca up to scholarly levels of expertise, if they have something valuable to add?

[robt willmann]

I have expressed concern about this area for a long time: basically a horizontal line or latitude at Deir ez Zor (Dayr az Zawr) to the border with Iraq, and covering the area straight down to the southern border of Syria. This would have given Syria control of its border with Iraq from that eastern point all the way down and around going west as far as possible, and control of the Euphrates River and the oil and gas fields and pipelines in that area--

http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/syria_rel-2007.jpg

I do understand the great difficulty R+6 has had with limited resources and logistics and thus could not fight all over the place at the same time, and the hard choices they have had to make. However, a horizontal line of demarcation from Deir ez Zor to the Iraq border would have made it much harder for the outside interlopers to go south of that line.

By now, everybody knows that Israel has attacked inside Syria with aircraft and that an Israeli F-16 jet crashed--

https://www.rt.com/news/418414-russia-statement-syria-israel/

[Fred]

Bill,

You mean Barack Obama and the ideology of the American left don't have humanity`s best interests at heart?

[Account Deleted]

Karel Whitman

My comment to Bill was in support of his view that "Russia currently represents the best interest of humanity" and I would stress that humanity includes the citizens of Israel.

War-making in support of Israeli 'security' is reaching new heights of lunacy. It now seems to not only demand the destruction of Syria & Hezbollah/Lebanon, but Iran too. US presence in the ME creates ever more chaos & the Russian-led alliance is presently the best hope of preventing this trend from continuing.

I suggest you address the language questions to Bill.

[St P]

The ventriloquist is??
https://www.youtube.com/

[St P]

sorry- i meant this link. quite fascinating
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBMKwrbbEVE

[Karel Whitman]

and I would stress that humanity includes the citizens of Israel.

you feel I excluded them? While meditating about the idea that Russian could soon become extinct, as Bill suggested?

One never stops to learn.

[catherine]

North Carolina Terpsichorean Club 1963.....so now you now how old I am...lol

[Richardstevenhack]

I'd have to agree that this is definitely in the cards.

As I've argued many times here:

1) Israel wants Iran gone.
2) Only the US can do this.
3) Israel can't start the war while Hizballah can deliver 1,600 missiles a day all over Israel, driving the population into bomb shelters and devastating the Israeli economy and ticking off the electorate so they vote out the Likudniks.
4) Israel can't attack Hizballah in the Bekaa Valley without crossing Syrian territory and engaging the Syrian military, so Syria's military has to be degraded.
5) Result: Syria crisis.
6) Now that Russia has (mostly) prevented that plan, only Israel and the US together have any chance of taking out Hizballah (if possible, which is not certain, as the Colonel has suggested many times.)
7) Next step: war between the US/NATO/Israel and Lebanon which extends into Syria.
8) PROFIT! (war with Iran for the military-industrial complex to make another several hundred billion profit a year for the next decade...)

[Richardstevenhack]

I think she means that this blog doesn't need a flood of hasbarists attracted by alleged "anti-semitism." Phil Giraldi lost his previous outlet as a result of such events, as an example.

You're correct in your assessment, however. Israel is going to have to be militarily defeated at some point in some manner.

[different clue]

Bill Herschel,

( Reply to comment 52),

Why would the South Koreans want to be unified into North Korea?

Also, why is Russian a dying language? I see over a hundred million Russian speakers. I see the Russian population stabilizing and perhaps slowly increasing again. What do you see that I don't see?

[different clue]

St P,

( reply to comment 58),

I am one of those renegade Sanders wanna-voters. My thinking on Trump ran on two parallel tracks. The "main" track was the Three Big Things which Clinton supported and Trump said he opposed . . . Assad must go, conflict with Russia, and more Free Trade Agreements.

The "parallel" track was this... the Democrats would not let me have my Sanders. So I would not let them have their Clinton.

#NotOneMoreClinton
#NeverEver
#NotMyResistance

[Richardstevenhack]

Alexander Mercouris analyzes the shootdown of the Israeli jet by the Syrians.

Military balance shifts: Syria shoots down Israeli F-16
http://theduran.com/syria-shoots-israeli-f-16-military-balance-balance-middle-east-shifting/

While I think he overestimates the effect of one single success by Syria, I suspect he's right overall - that this reflects a new-found lack of fear by an Arab state of Israel.

However, this may not have good consequences:

Israel launches 'large-scale' attack in Syria after fighter jet crashes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/israeli-fighter-jet-shot-down-by-syrian-fire-says-military

Israel has been trying since 2011 to get Syria to "fire back" at provocations initiated by Israel (and Turkey in previous years, of which the latest invasion against the Kurds could be seen as more of the same.)

Alexander suggests that Israel has "muted" its response to the Israel jet crash, but I see this as just one more step in getting the US and Israel ready for the next war.

Mattis Dismisses Fears of Wider War After Massive Syria Strike
https://news.antiwar.com/2018/02/09/mattis-dismisses-fears-of-wider-war-after-massive-syria-strike/

I agree with the above article. This just looks like more escalation with the end goal being a general war between the US/NATO/Israel and Syria/Lebanon, preparatory to a war with Iran.

Assuming we don't go to war with North Korea, which this article discusses in chilling detail (albeit citing a lot of people like Bennett who I believe are war mongers - it was Bennett to set up North Korea with the Sony movie...)

Here’s what war with North Korea would look like
A full-blown war with North Korea wouldn’t be as bad as you think. It would be much, much worse.
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/2/7/16974772/north-korea-war-trump-kim-nuclear-weapon

This sounds like an "anti-war" article but reads more like a justification for war with North Korea. Makes me suspicious of the motives of the writer. Also, as has been discussed here previously, the US doesn't HAVE 200,000 troops to send to South Korea.

[turcopolier]

Catherine

I graduated from VMI in 1962. I was the escort for a couple of girls at Virginia cotillions. pl

[catherine]

Ahhh...VMI, that brings back memories. I had a good friend who's boy friend went to VMI and he was also her escort at the deb ball...I had to settle for my brother, I was very jealous..lol.
If you graduated in '62 our ages would be close. I went to Marymount college in Arlington Va...I think you live nearby in Alexandria? Fun days those, by accident I got to go to Johnson's inaugural ball with friend Jose Montoya because his father Senator Montoya was sick at the time and Joe took his place...I was slightly unimpressed by the experience though, politicians and inebriated followers weren't my cup of tea. But overall I appreciated being in that location for my college years...got to know lots of interesting people.