To War, To War, This Country’s Going to War” - TTG

I’m afraid the recent “defensive attack” by US attack helicopters and artillery on Syrian tribesmen loyal to Damascus is not just a one-off fluke. It is a feature of the current US policy in Syria that will most likely result in another full blown war in the region… one that will put the US on a track to war with Russia. 

First, here’s an account of the fighting southeast of Deir Ezzor on the eastern side of the Euphrates taken from the twitter feed of Maxim A. Suchkov, Russian editor for Al-Monitor. I’ve put it into prose form and corrected some spelling/grammar for easier reading.

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“Russia’s Defense Ministry on US-coalition killing of 100+ pro-Assad forces: "The incident once again exposed true American intentions in Syria which is not the fight against terrorism but seizure &  control of economic assets." Russia’s MoD version of the incident:"On Feb.7, a Syrian pro-Assad militia was making an incursion to destroy a terrorist group which had been sporadically shelling pro-gov positions.The SYR militia was near El Isba, former oil refinery, 17 km south-east of Salkhiyakh. Suddenly, the Syrian pro-Assad militia came under mortar and multiple artillery rocket system fire, shortly followed by US helicopter strikes. 25 militiamen were wounded (no mention of how many killed). Russia's MoD suggests the US attack on pro-Assad militia were made possible because "the militia movements hadn’t been coordinated with the Russian military there." Following the attack Russia hosted reps of US coalition forces in Khmeymim airbase for talks during which according to Moscow, US told the oil refinery was under SDF and US control (which probably was meant to say "stay out" and what prompted Russian response on US trying to seize Syrian economic assets). Finally, Russian MoD claims attacks on Syrian pro-gov positions are getting more frequent over recent days from settlements of Mazlum, Al-Tabiya, and Ksh Sham. Moscow references its military radio intercepts saying it's done by one of ISIS "sleeper cells."  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

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Maxim A. Suchov continues with the Russian reaction to the attack.

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Follow-up on Moscow’s reaction to US strike on Syrian pro-gov forces: 

1. Russia's UN Ambassador Nebenzya will raise the issue at the upcoming UN Security Council closed-door briefing on the humanitarian situation in Syria.
2. Moscow is now conducting a thorough investigation of the incident, Russia’s MFA asks "How could a decision to open a massive fire to defeat the Syrian militiamen be made in such a short period of time [between SDF attacks and time US aviation came to the field]?”
3. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova: "US military presence in Syria presents a serious challenge to the peace process and thwarts the protection of the country's territorial integrity."
4. Russia’s MFA spox Zakharova: "A 55-kilometer zone unilaterally created by US around mil base near al-Tanf used by scattered units of Daesh terrorists [who] have opportunity to hide from gov forces in area as well as regroup and prepare for new raids in the Syrian deserts"  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

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An editorial in the pro-Turkish government paper “The Daily Sabah” lays the blame squarely on the shoulders of an out of control Pentagon and rogue CENTCOM generals. In so many words, they call on Trump to grow a pair and correct the situation. The full editorial is well worth reading.

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“During his 2016 election campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump kept asking: "Why are we in Syria and Afghanistan?" He called for an end to entanglements abroad and a focus on domestic problems. President Barack Obama's Syria policy was based on little more than indifference and, the Trump administration just automatically adopted it.

After all these years, the U.S. still does not have a good grasp on what its policies on Syria are. What does it want to achieve? What is its endgame? What kind of timeframe has it settled on to achieve its objectives? American politicians seem clueless about what they have gotten themselves into.

No one knows who is in charge of the U.S.'s Syria policy. Chaos reigns. Who do we call to ask what the U.S. is doing in Syria?

It seems that with no lead from the top, United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has decided it is the boss. While operationally, it is good that soldiers are in charge, it seems soldiers have also taken over the decision making that should be under the purview of elected officials. CENTCOM and its officers now make statements, formulate strategies and even conduct diplomacy. Turkey has a history of power-hungry generals seeing themselves as guardians of the country and the U.S. is well-advised not to repeat it.”  (Daily Sabah)

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Maxim Suchkov holds out a similar hope that Trump, himself, will step in and right the ship. He retweeted Trump and provided a comment to that tweet.

“I will be meeting with Henry Kissinger at 1:45pm. Will be discussing North Korea, China and the Middle East.” (@realDonaldTrump)

“Very interesting given Kissinger has now long been Putin’s go-to on messaging of Russia’s own position on same issues. Putin also holds Kissinger in high regard, seeking his wisdom, experience and balanced analysis of US-related matters."  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

I certainly hope Suchkov and the editors at The Daily Sabah are correct and that our current course in Syria is a temporary result of Trump’s inattention. The thought that a simple rage-filled outburst, accompanied by a few firings, can correct our course is oddly reassuring. However, I also have my doubts. Are the generals deflecting Trump by mentioning we control the Syrian oilfields when the President brings up the issue? Are the generals filling the President’s head with fears of Hezbollah and IRGC hordes running rampant across Syria?

Al-Monitor has an article out today extensively quoting Secretary of Defense Mattis. He downplays the role of Russia in Syria and Russian influence over Assad. He seems to be downplaying the risks that our aggressive talk and actions in Syria could lead to a confrontation with Russia. Well I think this jarhead is full of crap this time. To reinforce this man’s fullness of crap, a story appears this morning in Al Masdar News about attacks by the US controlled Deir Ezzor Military Council on SAA and NDF forces in Khashim and Tabiyyah on the Eastern shore of the Euphrates. Unlike the YPG/SDF, the Deir Ezzor Military Council is on the direct payroll of the State Department. This is a dangerous game we are playing.

TTG

https://twitter.com/msuchkov_alm

https://www.dailysabah.com/editorial/2018/02/08/us-generals-turning-into-warlords-in-syria-hijacking-us-foreign-policy

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/pentagon-play-down-russia-influence-syria-clash-sdf.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-us-led-forces-launch-offensive-syrian-army-deir-ezzor/

Comments

[Account Deleted]

catherine

I'd advise that a statement of explicit support for an FTO spilling "Jewish blood" may attract attention this blog could probably do without.

[JamesT]

If Trump wants the US out of Syria, it seems to me his best option would be to wait for R+6 to gain control of all of the country outside of SDF/US controlled areas ... and then order an abrupt withdrawl of all remaining US forces (perhaps after concluding some sort of agreement with Putin to act as a justification for such withdrawl). I would not be surprised if impeachment proceedings against Trump were to be launched shortly afterwards.

[ked]

I’ll take the Marx Bros. over the Marxists & the clown in the WH.
We could use some realists.

[VietnamVet]

TTG

The only way now for regime change to happen in Syria is to take on Russia and Iran. Partition will only work if the Kurds pull back to their territory and there is a 1948 style Berlin Airlift to resupply the troops and contractors and pray that no planes are shot down. The only way to dislodge the USA is if Turkey attacks Manbij. The USA thinks it is cutting the Shiite Crescent at the bequest of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Only the loss of Turkey could break through this crazy thinking. An Israel invasion of the Golan Heights or a NATO war with Hezbollah starts WWIII. It is beginning to looks like that a region wide Peace Treaty is the only way to avoid a world war.

The fundamental problem to ending this is Israel. Also, Fundamentalists on all sides want the End Times. The military, their contractors and GOP allies need forever wars to be paid. Democrats are scapegoating Russia to hide their failures. US and UK Globalists need Russia as an enemy.

VW Paid $25 Billion for Dieselgate — And Got Off Easy in Europe:
https://www.propublica.org/article/how-vw-paid-25-billion-for-dieselgate-and-got-off-easy?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1
In Detroit a German engineer was sentenced to seven years in jail while Wall Street criminals have avoided jail time.

With cheap natural gas from Russia and idiots running wild in North America, destroying the world’s environment and privatizing everything to enrich local crony capitalists; it is natural that the European oligarchs are divorcing themselves from the Atlantic Alliance elites. The only way to keep the European Establishment in the fold is for NATO to scare the hell out of them with the Russian Bear. If that goes so does NATO.

[Kooshy]

Well said Barbara, I agree with the first part of your comment, which is, that president Trump left all military matters on ME, to the 3 general White House junta. IMO, That’s is because Mr. Trump has no patience or understanding for geopolitics and geostrategy nor he is a “map reader”. Actually he is not even a book reader, so one can assume not much knowledge of history beside what is offered on history channel. Apparently it’s true that the military generals for now have that decision making blank check , but if the pans they are making don’t go well or becomes too expensive, Mr. Trump will be the one who has to take all the blames and consequences. President Johnson came to understand that part a bit too late.

Regarding the second part of your comment, I don’t think Iranians or Russians will want or will engage US in an asymmetric or open overt hot war, that’s because they know, is the US, who wants a new war in ME, to justify her stay in Syria domestically. And Iran and Russia know don’t need to or want to expand and enlarge this war with outside powers. This is a war of attrition, and they Iran and Russia will simply wait and let US wear herself out, US and KSA are and will pay to supply the entire east Syria including Kurds. Russian and Iranian military operations are a lot less expensive than US and her allies.

[SmoothieX12]

Tru dat! I was bracketed by 5-inch naval gunfire. No body armor. No helmet. And no time to dig in. Just much practice in melding myself into the "minute folds of the terrain" as they put it in Infantry School. It was my own fault. I shouldn't have been where I was at the time. Luckily, I escaped with nothing more than a killer case of tinnitus.

Even throwing RGD-5 too close gets one thinking, same as being ran over (in this particular case in Naval Infantry Brigade in Sevastopol in 1981) by T-62 as training. And then real life starts. Saw friendlies unloading on us 40 30-mm shells (by "mistake", of course) barely missing--that gets one's attention really fast, to put it mildly. The worst, however, is evacuating women and children and not being allowed to shoot back. "Exciting" moments of life, they get one having ulcers in no time. As per 5-inch guns, man, I DO NOT envy you, period. I am so happy to be armchair "strategist".

[Kooshy]

Brilliant, this reminds me of a poem by Hafez the legendary Iranian poet, translation roughly is

Forgive all the war of the 72 nations ( Syrian war?)
Because they couldn’t see the truth, they resorted to phantasy (ISIS).

[Razor]

FTO? Does that mean foreign terrorist organisation? Assuming you mean Hezbollah, there are lots of people, including in the West, who do not regard Hezb as a terrorist organisation. Even Norman Finkelstein described them as the honour of Lebanon; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9k9Mr7JBlE

Your comment seems to imply that the "spilling Jewish blood" comment is somehow outrageous, anti-semitic even. If that is what you seek to imply, then you are either a fool or a knave, perhaps even both. Indeed, even Finkelstein concedes that there will be no peace from Israel until it suffers a real defeat militarily. Thus spilling Jewish blood.

[iowa steve]

Thanks, TTG.

An excellent and thoughtful post.

Unfortunately, imho if Trump begins to question Centcom's actions I think the hysteria surrounding Hezbollah and Iran, as you allude to, will carry the day. I also think that if push comes to shove, Putin will avoid any direct confrontation with the US on behalf of Syria, however warranted, with this caveat--a direct attack on Russian forces would result in the consequences that you foresee.

[catherine]

Thanks for the advice but its a fact....and has been stated that was by several sane and ex military Israelis themselves.
The Israeli public won't take much lose of Jewish lives....so far Isr has spilled a lot of blood, if that reverses things will change.

[eakens]

I wonder if Mattis tells Kissinger to call him Haig in these meetings.

[Bill Herschel]

Substitution behavior. All in Syria. Not so much Korea. If only Korea had defenseless tribesmen roaming around in the desert?

Key question: does Russia want the U.S. to stay in Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria/Yemen/etc.? I would say yes. Definitely. What could destroy U.S. society, military, and economy quicker? Think of the horrific paradox of a U.S. military presence in the heroin capital of the world.

Sessions visits Long Island to campaign against Central American drug gangs and the U.S. military works among the poppies to build a nation. You can't make this stuff up.

[catherine]

''Don't we all see where this nation, as well as the whole world was brought to by those very "brilliant", conspicuously non-military, boys and girls? It makes me sick to a stomach when I see and hear some lawyers or "economists" dabbling into the "military stuff". ''

Well I think I see how we got here. But I'm an aging southern debutante and don't know enough to even comment on complicated military stuff...way beyond my expertise.
I did educate myself on the ME......started off with the British National Achieves and then worked my way thru US and ME records and documents...lots, lots of rats in those historical wood piles.
I believe history is the best predictor of the future because human nature is a "known" factor that hasn't changed in 21 centuries....some masters of the universe don't consider that in their grand plans.. but I think regardless of what is 'imposed' on the ME it will eventually revert back to what it was or determines for itself.

[catherine]

''Almost certainly. The Pentagon hates Hizballah because of the Marine barracks attack in Lebanon way back when, and of course hates Iran. So does Trump and his Zionist relatives''

More to the Marine barracks attack then is usually mentioned.

Harassment of U.S. Marines
By Donald Neff

It was 12 years ago, on March 14, 1983, that the commandant of the Marine Corps sent a highly unusual letter to the secretary of defense expressing frustration and anger at Israel. General R.H. Barrow charged that Israeli troops were deliberately threatening the lives of Marines serving as peacekeepers in Lebanon. There was, he wrote, a systematic pattern of harassment by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that was resulting in "life-threatening situations, replete with verbal degradation of the officers, their uniform and country."
Barrow's letter added: "It is inconceivable to me why Americans serving in peacekeeping roles must be harassed, endangered by an ally...It is evident to me, and the opinion of the U.S. commanders afloat and ashore, that the incidents between the Marines and the IDF are timed, orchestrated, and executed for obtuse Israeli political purposes."1

continued...
https://www.wrmea.org/1995-march/israel-charged-with-systematic-harassment-of-u.s.-marines.html

[The Twisted Genius]

Bill Herschel,

I seriously doubt Russia wants the US in the region in the destructive capacity we seem to revel in. It is in Russia's interest that the region becomes and remains stable. If we switched from our policy of destruction to one of construction, I'm sure the Russians would welcome us as partners.

[Kooshy]

TTG, in all fairness so do the Iranians

[Phil Cattar]

Thank you very much for that excellent article.I certainly hope the professor is not correct.Since both Netanyahu and President Trump are facing legal problems it might be a convenient time for a war to divert the public of both countries.

[Fred]

Catherine,

You started with the British National Archives and then worked through the US and ME records but didn't find any reference to Clauswitz or Jomini or Montgomery or anyone else that might shed some light on military matters? Why I do declare......

In all that reading did you ever run across quotation marks " " like the ones that should have been used in the article you extensively quoted?

[Fred]

Phil,

Did you get the memo? You know the one Nunes put out - the very same one that Publius Tacitus wrote about on this very site? It's all about the massive legal trouble the Democrats and allies in the FBI/DOJ/etc are facing for trying to rig the election. A war would be just the thing to distract attention and (they hope) prove the narrative of the left.

[catherine]

''You started with the British National Archives and then worked through the US and ME records but didn't find any reference to Clauswitz or Jomini or Montgomery or anyone else that might shed some light on military matters? Why I do declare......''

Yes I did come across the military conflicts ..But reading about them doesn't qualify me to speak on military matters....particularly as they are discussed in depth here by Col. Lang and other experts.

And bless your heart for worrying about my quotation marks....if I forget it again you be sure to take the time to remind me.

[jld]

You seem correct TTG, more revelers joining the party:
A second #Israel/i air bombing against #Syria. #Damnascus open fire again against Israel Jets and Golan Heights positions. Siren over Israel continue. Escalation (for now). (Elijah J. Magnier)

[Account Deleted]

Whether I am a fool and/or a knave is for others to decide - as is the official designation of FTO's. Others, less keen on the First Amendment than you or I, also monitor blogs like this for trigger phrases and I'd be pretty certain "Jewish blood" was on the list.

My advice carried no moral implications. I just wanted to warn that use of such expressions may result in SST receiving an increase in trolling and/or more aggressive attacks. It is naïve to expect complete freedom of speech on such subjects to be without risk of consequences for our host.

[LondonBob]

Spokeswoman shouldn't exist, it is bad English. Man has always had two meanings.

'The Germanic word developed into Old English man, mann meaning primarily "adult male human" but secondarily capable of designating a person of unspecified gender, "someone, one" or humanity at large (see also Old Norse maðr, Gothic manna "man").'

In this case man has the secondary meaning of just a person of unspecified gender or age.

[turcopolier]

Catherine

In which state were you a deb and at which cotillion did you emerge from childhood> pl

[Bill Herschel]

You are right. Russia currently represents the best interest of humanity. And the best interest is not served by indiscriminate killing and the destruction of civilization in the Middle East. And Russia's military presence in Syria is surely in part an effort to displace the U.S.

I should add, in the brief moment before certain people's brains fry at the statement above, that Russia is a country that has been ravaged by war and then ravaged by carpetbaggers after the fall of the Soviet Union. I can easily sympathize with someone who would rather move to the U.S. than to Russia. Russian itself is probably a dying language. It certainly is a difficult language. (German is certainly a dying language, in passing, a language whose body of literature is pitiful and grotesque in comparison to Russian literature).

But Russia under Putin is strenuously attempting to bring peace to the world. Returning to Korea, I increasingly believe that Kim Jong-un has had a come to Jesus moment with representatives of Russia, been told that he has the opportunity of a lifetime right now to unify the Korean peninsula, and will probably succeed unless the U.S. kills many thousands of Koreans and a few thousand Americans to show how much better we are than anybody else.