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21 February 2018

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Willybilly

Succession is going to be gruesome. The level and quality of the pretenders is contemptible to say the least...

J

Colonel,

A Haaretz column explained it best. Three scenarios possible:

1. New elections
a. If coalition quits, new elections in the spring/summer
b. Main opposition party declare that Netanyahu era is forked.

2. Netanyahu out, Likud remains
a. New Likud PM continues the coalition
b. Netanyahu rival gives him a olive branch time out to resolve the issue

3. Netanyahu hangs on
a. Security trumps political shake-up
b. Base sees Bibi as irreplaceable with no other alternative.

JamesT

I am afraid that the Teflon coated weasel will manage to hang on.

Jony Kanuck

Colonel,
Charge 4000 has begun filling out in the last couple of days. Bezeq communications owns Walla; an Israeli website with comparable reach to the popular YNET. Bibi's appointed comm minister has been showering favours on Bezeq. Police have recommended charges against the minister & Bezeq executives. Bibi is obviously obsessed with his media image and the image, or sound, of his 'shrill & grasping' wife Sara. Even if Bibi 'beats the rap', he is now damaged goods.
It all seems to depend on whether his coalition thinks he can win the next election. Naftali Bennett & Yair Lapid have already lined up to replace him. However, it'll be the same wine in a new bottle: No deals, no peace.
My sources are Richard Silverstein, who blogs as Tikkun Olam, Ben Caspit & Akiva Eldar who I read in English on Al-Monitor.

Jony Kanuck

Col,
Not for the faint of heart: Sara Netanyahu screaming at a press secretary because his write up of a press release didn't mention that she is a child psychologist in the first line! One could develop some sympathy for Bibi!
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/recording-of-sara-netanyahu-screaming-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-1.5769985

jdledell

I'm not sure anyone in Israel really knows what is going to happen next, including Bibi. While I have a lot of contacts in Israel, none are in the political hierarchy. so what I have to say is still conjecture. While this certainly looks bad for Bibi, no one in the Likud is stepping forward to take the reins. Bibi over the past few years has really made sure no one in Likud has stature enough to give him competition. I can't think of a high ranking Likud member who would have the confidence of the electorate. Other members of his coalition, like Natafli Bennett are very nervous about going to elections for fear of losing Knesset members. the current polls show if elections were held now, Likud would actually gain 4 more seats.

My guess is Bibi will try to ride out the storm. He will probably end up giving up the premiership but continue to hold his seat so he can make a comeback while Likud installs a caretaker premier who will still do Bibi's bidding.

Many Israelis don't hold Bibi personally responsible for his problems but blame his wife Sara. She has publicly made no bones how terrible it is that she and Bibi have to lead a "Middle Class lifestyle" in spite of their many contributions to Israel's success. She is under investigation herself for ordering more than $100,000 of fancy restaurant food in spite of having state paid chefs employed at the premier's residence. That is why I believe Likud will continue to support Bibi unless the issues turn really ugly.

Duck1

Seems like small beer if someone like Ayelet Shaked becomes PM. They need a TINA mama in Isreal.

catherine


Haaretz news says these six are lining up for Netanyahu's place......Yisrael Katz, Gideon Saar, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, Avi Gabbay and Yair Lapid. All of them have voted Likud in the past.

Here's a background on each of them. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-meet-the-6-contenders-vying-to-succeed-netanyahu-1.5444676

Also Israel's intelligence minister, Israel Katz, told AP interviewer... "I'm planning to be after him, leader of the Likkud (party) and prime minister of Israel,"

notlurking

Hey wait a minute....Ruskies behind this?....lol

Fred

jdledell,

"Bibi over the past few years has really made sure no one in Likud has stature enough to give him competition."

I believe the same can be said for Obama over here. He's created "the emerging minority majority" within the Democratic Party.

different clue

Fred,

( reply to comment 11),

I believe the Clintons and all their allies and retainers have tried doing the same thing for some decades now. And Clinton and the Clintonites will continue meddling in DemParty politics to abort and prevent any New Deal Reactionary movements or people which try arising.

Duck1

Maybe the Oscar is the model of succession politics these days. A rigid metallic hue with fixed expressions due to plastic surgery turns off the new born children who eventually must register and vote. Just my opinion.

BraveNewWorld

As long as Trump keeps doing things like handing Jerusalem to the Israeli's on Bibi's watch he is untouchable. If it gets tight you can expect a full scale rescue effort from the Republican political establishment. If worst comes to worst Bibi will do what he always does. Scare the hell out of every claiming some fantastical new threat and start yet another war. But all polling says the Isralis don't care if Bibi is a crook. Most politicians in Israel are.

If a miracle happens and Bibi is out, the bad news is the replacement will come from the right of Netanyahu. The good news is that no politician in Israel will ever have the kind os sway over Americans that Bibi did. Lots don't speak English and none of them have the back ground schlocking stuff in America that made him such an effective snake oil salesman.

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