Sic Semper Tyrannis

Another SIGINT compromise ...

 

"Officials in at least four countries have privately discussed ways they can manipulate Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, by taking advantage of his complex business arrangements, financial difficulties and lack of foreign policy experience, according to current and former U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports on the matter.

Among those nations discussing ways to influence Kushner to their advantage were the United Arab Emirates, China, Israel and Mexico, the current and former officials said.

It is unclear if any of those countries acted on the discussions, but Kushner’s contacts with certain foreign government officials have raised concerns inside the White House and are a reason he has been unable to obtain a permanent security clearance, the officials said.

Kushner’s interim security clearance was downgraded last week from the top-secret to the secret level, which should restrict the regular access he has had to highly classified information, according to administration officials.  Washpost

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 Most people will probably be struck by the fall from grace of Kushner and other WH staff dilettantes.  I am not terribly interested in that.  What strikes me is that this is the third major compromise of US SIGINT products in the last year.  The first was the felonious disclosure to the press of US intelligence penetration of Russian diplomatic communications.  the second was the disclosure to the press of penetration of GRU communications.  In this one the oral or written  discussions among the officials of several foreign countries are revealed.  These conversations were probably encrypted. 

Is Jeff Sessions still alive?  Why are there no prosecutions for these felonies?  pl  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/kushners-overseas-contacts-raise-concerns-as-foreign-officials-seek-leverage/2018/02/27/16bbc052-18c3-11e8-942d-16a950029788_story.html?utm_term=.e3639623e918

The Pentagon Refuses To Support the Chemical Weapons Hoax In Eastern Ghouta

by Willy B

The Pentagon, on at least two occasions, has rejected going along with the chemical weapons hype against the Syrian government in Damascus, despite its dubious policies, such as the military occupation of eastern Syriam otherwise. Secretary of Defense James Mattis admitted to reporters on Feb. 2 that the U.S. doesn't actually have any evidence that the Syrian government has been using sarin gas. The framework underlying Mattis' remarks remains the assumption that if chemical weapons are being used in Syria it must be Assad's responsibility. Therefore, all we need to do then is find that evidence.

"We are more -- even more concerned about the possibility of sarin use, the likelihood of sarin use, and we're looking for the evidence," Mattis said when asked about the latest accusations against Assad on Feb 2. His assumptions emerged when he was asked to clarify later in the press conference. "We think that they did not carry out what they said they would do back when -- in the previous administration, when they were caught using it," he said, referring to the August 2013 attack in East Ghouta which Obama wanted to use to attack Syrian government forces. "And that gives us a lot of reason to suspect them. And now we have other reports from the battlefield from people who claim it's been used," Mattis went on. "We do not have evidence of it. But we're not refuting them; we're looking for evidence of it." Later on, he said again that he didn't have evidence of government use of sarin gas. "What I'm saying is that other -- that groups on the ground, NGOs, fighters on the ground have said that sarin has been used. So we are looking for evidence. I don't have evidence, credible or uncredible."

The U.S. military has vast intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets in the region to develop a pretty extensive picture of what's going on on the ground in Syria, but the Pentagon is still reporting no evidence of such chemical weapons use. On Monday of this week, Pentagon spokesman Col. Rob Manning told reporters at the Pentagon that "We don't have any evidence right now that chemical weapons are being used," when he was asked to comment on a statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that that Russia expects new disinformation campaigns regarding alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria to derail existing ceasefire agreements. "We've seen the reports," Manning said. "We'll closely watch that, and condemn any use of chemical weapons on the Syrian people."

It would seem, therefore, that the U.S. military doesn't trust the claims of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the so-called White Helmets, who remain the go-to sources for the MSM, for "reports" of Syrian and Russian use of chemical weapons in Eastern Ghouta. There's probably no reason for me to cite any particular of those reports, as you can find them everywhere from Reuters to the New York Times to Al Jazeera. They all cite those two sources uncritically without ever doing any investigation on their own, to paint a picture of the Syrian government and its Russian backers waging a war against civilians in Eastern Ghouta, as they did in Aleppo in 2016.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1431844/media-availability-by-secretary-mattis-at-the-pentagon/

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201802261062016051-us-no-evidence-chemical-weapons-syria/

Becerra is very close to obstructing immigration law.

 

"ICE also recently raided nearly 100 7-Eleven franchises across the country and arrested 21 people. If that happened in California, the store owners would be required under a separate law to request warrants and subpoenas. 

That law, called the Immigrant Worker Protection Act, also went into effect Jan. 1. It requires that employers admit immigration officials to a worksite only if the agents have a warrant; keep workers’ confidential information private in the absence of a subpoena; and notify their workers before a federal audit of employee records takes place.

State Attorney General Xavier Becerra announced on Jan. 18 that his office would go after employers who share information about workers in contradiction of the new law and they could face prosecution, including fines of up to $10,000.

“We want to protect people’s rights to privacy and protect their ability to go about their business, going to work and feeding their kids,” said Becerra, an appointee who is running for election to his post this year."  VCSTAR

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I don't know if Xavier Becerra (El Zorro) has actually taken legal action against businesses for cooperating with the US government.   When he does I would think that would be actionable.  pl 

http://www.vcstar.com/story/news/2018/02/05/california-businesses-face-conflicting-immigration-laws/308886002/

Nullification and Interposition - 2018

 

 "Like many California cities, Oakland has declared itself a sanctuary for those here illegally, and officials there have vowed to fight President Trump's promised immigration crackdown. Tensions have heightened in recent weeks as administration officials have talked about targeting California for increased immigration enforcement. Trump last week also said he was thinking of withdrawing Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents from the state, predicting it could cause a wave of crime.

While Schaaf said she was trying to help those who might be arrested, some advocates said it had a different impact.

"The main reaction that people have had has been fear, unfortunately," said Eleni Wolfe, immigration program director at Centro Legal de la Raza, an Oakland-based advocacy group. "It's terrifying to hear about the potential of increased enforcement action, and unfortunately that's the main message that they heard."

Across California, leaders said they find themselves in a difficult position as they fight federal law enforcement actions. Typically, they said, local and federal officials work in concert. But on immigration, they are at odds."  LA Times

***********

 "Nullification, in United States constitutional history, is a legal theory that a state has the right to nullify, or invalidate, any federal law which that state has deemed unconstitutional. The theory of nullification has never been legally upheld by federal courts."  wiki

***********

 "Interposition is a claimed right of a U.S. state to oppose actions of the federal government that the state deems unconstitutional. Under the theory of interposition, a state assumes the right to "interpose" itself between the federal government and the people of the state by taking action to prevent the federal government from enforcing laws that the state considers unconstitutional. In Cooper v. Aaron, 35potential rebels in California are walking a fine line ad8 U.S. 1 (1958), the Supreme Court of the United States rejected interposition explicitly. The Supreme Court and the lower federal courts have consistently held that the power to declare federal laws unconstitutional lies with the federal judiciary, not with the states. The courts have held that interposition is not a valid constitutional doctrine when invoked to block enforcement of federal law."  wiki

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 The leftist politicians who run California are playing with fire.  The US is not Canada where N&I or outright secession would probably be met with hand-wringing and not much else.  We fought our biggest and most destructive war over these issues and they were largely settled by force majeur.   The potential rebels in the Golden State are betting on their ability to frustrate enforcement of federal immigration law by avoiding direct statements of defiance or orders to local government to physically resist arrests and deportation.

IMO this game can only be played so long as the federal government allows it.  If that forbearance ends then they could easily be declared to be guilty of criminal acts.  pl

 http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ice-raids-oakland-20180226-story.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nullification_(U.S._Constitution)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interposition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libby_Schaaf

19 million lifetime page views for SST - 26 February 2018

12 years so far.

pl

The Fake Courage Awards of 2018....... and the Nominees are............ commentary by Fred

It's that time of year folks: Awards Season. So pull in and watch the sunset on a great day because we have a great new show to go with your evening dose of Fake News.  

Hollywood,  your show can wait. We've got Fake Courage to recognize, so lets go going, shall we?

Democrat Memo Lays Egg by Publius Tacitus

After reading the memo championed by Democrat Adam Schiff, which was promised to rebut the memo produced by the Republican majority on the House Intel Committee, I was reminded of a Peggy Lee song--Is That All There Is?

Devin Nunes and his team have saved me the effort of pointing out the problems with the Schiff rebuttal. I am presenting that in full. Here is the bottomline--we now know that Christopher Steele was not a "one-time Charlie." He had a longstanding covert relationship as an FBI intelligence asset. The Democrat memo does nothing to dispute that fact.

It also is clear that DOJ and FBI personnel engaged in unprofessional (and possibly illegal) conduct with respect to making representations to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). Three key points on this front--1: The so-called Steele dossier was proffered as evidence to the FISC without fully disclosing that Steele was a covert asset being paid for his work and that Democrat political operatives were also paying him; 2: Senior DOJ officials, particularly Bruce Our, were totally comprised yet continued to be involved in the process; and 3: The Democrats insist that Carter Page is a bad guy and deserves to be investigated. Yet, no charges have been filed against him and the allegations leveled in the Steele dossier were dismissed by former FBI Director Comey as "salacious and unverified."

Anyway, here are the main points from the Democrat memo and the Republican response.

 

THE DEMOCRATS’ MEMO: CHARGE AND RESPONSE

 

Syria's probable future

(editorial comment)

It seems to me that what is coming is a de facto partition of Syria.   I doubt if there is an actual understanding or agreement on the subject but the actions of the players indicate that they comprehend what the outcome will be if present trends and actions continue.

IMO the SAG should have re-captured Idlib Province in the period immediately following their victory at Aleppo.  The jihadist enemy was then on the run, disorganized and demoralized by defeat.  The correlation of forces was very much in the government's favor. This did not happen.

Instead the SAG went east from Aleppo City to secure water and electric energy supplies for the re-construction of Aleppo.  Success led to further and further exploitation to the east and the opportunity was lost to re-take the province.  Whether or not the government still has the means or the will, or enough Russian support to re-capture the province is debatable.  The Turks are busy conquering the Afrin district.  Can anyone seriously doubt that they will succeed in the end?  When that happens we will see an effective barrier against government control established farther south by Turkish forces closing up on their "observation posts" in Idlib Province.  These OPs are IMO positioned to impede the SAA.

On the line of the Euphrates River a de facto frontier has already emerged between government control to the south and US/SDF to the north and east of the stream.  Evidently the US intends to discourage a SAG/SDF reconciliation in the hope of maintaining  the dream of eventual destruction of the Damascus government.  The enclave around al-Tanf on the Jordanian border is yet further indication of American desire to impeded and embarrass SAG efforts to re-consolidate power.  I think the US will cling to that enclave "until the last dog dies."  (American modismo).  What will be the administrative center of the US protectorate on the other side of the Euphrates?  Will it be the former IS capital in the damaged city of Raqqa?  Will the denizens of that be-deviled place see a proliferation of KFC and McDonald's.  If so, will the franchisees be Chinese?  The US is leaving Iraq, diverting forces to the unwinnable war in Afghanistan.  Iraqi politics will encourage that departure.  When that happens the US will be in possession of a landlocked territory in eastern Syria that is inhabited by people who don't like us very much even if necessity has made them our allies.

The SAG has massed a significant percentage of its mobile forces to capture the jihadi stronghold of East Ghouta.  The preparatory fires have naturally excited the jihadis who hold the area and their media allies in the US and Europe.  I expect that this size force will do an adequate job of jihadi cleansing in the near future and then move on to browner pastures.  With the prospect of having to govern a rump Syria under Russian, Iranian and Chinese tutelage, the SAG will probably move to clean up the several rebel held pockets aligned north to south from the Jordanian border to north of Hama City.

Will the Syrian government acknowledge the loss of its territories?  They will not.  pl

Open Thread - 24 February 2018

pl

American Meddling in the Ukraine by Publius Tacitus

Historians will note the tremendous irony of the United States engaging in subversion and election meddling in Ukraine that surpasses anything attempted by Russia.

The ideological fissures that are growing in the United States are beginning to resemble the warring camps that characterize the Ukrainian political world. The divide in Ukraine pits groups who are described as "right wing" and many are ideological descendants of real Nazis and Nazi sympathizers against groups with a strong affinity to Russia. This kind of gap cannot be bridged through conventional negotiations.

Who is the United States government and media supporting? The Nazis. You think I'm joking. Here are the facts, but we must go back to World War II:

When World War II began a large part of western Ukraine welcomed the German soldiers as liberators from the recently enforced Soviet rule and openly collaborated with the Germans. IThe Soviet leader, Stalin, imposed policies that caused the deaths of almost 7 million Ukrainians in the 1930s--an era known as the Holomodor). 

Ukrainian divisions, regiments and battalions were formed, such as SS Galizien, Nachtigal and Roland, and served under German leadership. In the first few weeks of the war, more than 80 thousand people from the Galizien region volunteered for the SS Galizien, which later known for its extreme cruelty towards Polish, Jewish and Russian people on the territory of Ukraine.

Members of these military groups came mostly from the organization of Ukrainian nationalists ka the OUN, which was founded in 1929. It’s leader was Stepan Bandera, known then and today for his extreme anti-semitic and anti-communist views.

CIA documents just recently declassified show strong ties between US intelligence and Ukrainian nationalists since 1946.

Jump ahead now to the February 2014 "uprising" of anti-Russian forces in the Ukraine (Maidan 2). The US was firmly on the side of the protesters, who ultimately succeeded in ousting the elected President. And who were helping lead this effort?

Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council is Andriy Parubiy. Parubiy was the founder of the Social National Party of Ukraine, a fascist party styled on Hitler’s Nazis, with membership restricted to ethnic Ukrainians.

The Social National Party would go on to become Svoboda, the far-right nationalist party whose leader, Oleh Tyahnybok was one of the three most high profile leaders of the Euromaidan protests. . . .

Overseeing the armed forces alongside Parubiy as the Deputy Secretary of National Security is Dmytro Yarosh, the leader of the Right Sector – a group of hardline nationalist streetfighters, who previously boasted they were ready for armed struggle to free Ukraine.

 

Cowardice and Neglect of Duty

" The only armed sheriff’s deputy at a Florida high school where 17 people were killed took cover outside rather than charging into the building when the massacre began, the Broward County sheriff said on Thursday. The sheriff also acknowledged that his office received 23 calls related to the suspect going back a decade, including one last year that said he was collecting knives and guns, but may not have adequately followed up.

The deputy, Scot Peterson, resigned on Thursday after being suspended without pay after Sheriff Scott Israel reviewed surveillance video.

“He never went in,” Sheriff Israel said in a news conference. He said the video showed Deputy Peterson doing “nothing.”

“There are no words,” said Sheriff Israel, who described himself as “devastated, sick to my stomach.”"  NY Times

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And how could Sheriff Israel not be sick at heart at this display of cowardice by one of his men, a man sworn to protect these children if necessary by sacrificing his life for them.

I am old and past the time when false modesty obstructs free expression of the harshness of truth.  I have faced many bullets in the performance of duty and I judge Peterson a coward who should be punished for his cowardice..  pl  

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/22/us/nikolas-cruz-florida-shooting.html

"a giant catcher's mitt."

 

""It's like a giant catcher's mitt, in boat form," SpaceX CEO Elon Musk told reporters after the Falcon Heavy launch on Feb. 6, Space.com reported.

In particular, the giant net is designed to catch the payload fairings, also known as the nose-cone halves. During the Feb. 6 mission, the payload fairings held the now-famous midnight-cherry Tesla Roadster and its driver, a mannequin known as Starman.

 

SpaceX has saved one of its payload fairings before: In March 2017, the company launched a previously used Falcon 9 rocket to carry a payload — a communications satellite designed to provide TV, internet and other services to people in Latin America. After that launch, the payload fairings used an onboard thruster system and a parachute to safely land in the Atlantic Ocean, Space.com reported.

However, the new net aboard Mr. Steven will make will make it easier for the payload fairing to be retrieved, according to TechCrunch.

According to SeaTran, the company that owns Mr. Steven, the vessel is 205 feet (62 meters) long, can travel up to 32 knots (36.8 mph, or about 59 km/h) and has a deck measuring 136 feet by 27 feet (41 by 8 m). It's not clear why the 2015 watercraft is named Mr. Steven (SeaTran didn't immediately respond to a request for comment), but other vessels in the company's fleet have similar names, including Lady Eve, Mr. Mason, Miss Claire and, amusingly, Greater Scott."  space.com

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 Now this is "cool" as they say in French movies.  This robot boat will steam out into the Pacific from Catalina Island (off LA) to position itself to meet the fairing halves as they descend on geo-tagged parachutes.   My.  My. 

This would save the company about$5 million over and above what they claw back from re-usable boosters.

I can hardly wait to see them try this,

BTW, Avalon, the town on Catalina is a really neat place.  pl  

https://www.space.com/39771-mr-steven-will-catch-spacex-gear.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avalon,_California

Project Lakhta - What was the goal?

 

"We will use the key performance indicators (KPIs) we created in November to measure the level of success enjoyed by the Russian intelligence active measures campaign. The plethora of examples within the indictment serves to confirm much of our analysis, but also shows their successes were more robust than previous analysis had concluded.

KPI 1 – Shape the U.S. election discourse and feed divisiveness into the United States. The efforts in the creation of thousands of online accounts to create, publish and repeat divisive messages, creating slightly nuanced content and otherwise pushing themes that would be most inflammatory has now been documented in the indictment. The DoJ shared an example: “The Russians organized one rally in support of the President-elect and another rally to oppose him, both in New York, and on the same day.”

KPI 2 – Framing the dialogue via ads and fictitious persons. This is where the Russians invested heavily—not only millions in funds which they funneled to social media accounts including Twitter and Facebook, but also in online search ads with Google and Bing. Additionally, their use of email and assuming the identities of real U.S. citizens to infiltrate and provide direct support to various political entities is now well-documented." securituboulevard.com

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 I have no idea what or who "Security Boulevard" may be but I needed a mission statement for Project Lakhta.  A number of people are saying that Lakhta just wasn't professional enough for them to give it much credit.  I disagree.  the program may have been run by Putin's Caterer billionaire friend with a few ex-SVR as cadre and the rest enthusiastic geeks, but IMO the results speak for themselves.  If the goal was to further aggravate divisiveness in the US, this project certainly contributed to US political disarray.

The image of Michael Moore marching in a Project Lakhta anti-Trumo demonstration is just too, too delicious.

The question arises of actual motive on the part of the Russians.  Much of the usual drivel is circulating about Russian hatred of democracy as a commodity.

IMO that is not the root of their behavior in this matter and in all the other IO operations that they seem to be continuing against the US.  No, I think the objective is simply to weaken the US as a self-declared adversary that wishes to see Russia reduced to the status of a mid-sized regional player subject to US oversight and control.

Since the end of the first Cold War and the collapse of the USSR the US has treated Russia with overbearing contempt and hostility.  The Russians appealed to the US to be allowed a more open role in European affairs.  The response was to drive the borders of NATO far to the east, to the borders of what is but a rump of the Russian Empire before WW1.

The Russian response is to use what they see as a legitimate instrument of statecraft against us.  This instrument seeks the weakening of enemies through exploitation of their own defects. 

Our response to this is to adopt a high handed attitude that speaks volumes about us.  We admit that we do the same things to others even as we claim an absolute right to do this because we are the future of humanity, the dwellers in the "city on the hill."

How childish and self absorbed we are!  pl  

https://securityboulevard.com/2018/02/project-lakhta-russian-meddling-gets-russians-indicted/

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/technology/russian-bots-school-shooting.html?emc=edit_th_180220&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=4051510220

Natanyahu is Finished.

It appears from today's news that Bibi and Sarah are on their way out of the PM's residence and may end up in adjoining prisons.  I would welcome informed comment on this to include likely succession.  pl

http://ev.haaretz.com/HM?b=0fpLm8-q4CwQdf02bTi5vNLQF7uFh4SEKSRW_osSDzZFIVKdg03IRZimDuo-vZyk&c=eDkXzS66dSRPWtVh9iZkYQ

Robert Mueller's America--A Farce Wrapped in Hypocrisy by Publius Tacitus

The indictment unveiled last Friday by Assistant Attorney General Rob Rosenstein, charging 13 Russian nationals with posting "false" information on the internet would be great grist for a satirical send up of government incompetence except the underlying premise of the charges is nothing short of a road map for authoritarian governments who will want to treat anyone who dares post contrarian material on the internet as a criminal. Let me state it succinctly--if you posted a blog suggesting that Hillary deserved to go to jail then you might be a criminal.

The indictment is nothing more than a rancid puff pastry. It pretends to have a mountain of evidence of evil doing by the Russians. But if you simply ask probing questions about the underlying proof of the misdeeds you will quickly discover that this document is a piece of political theater rather than an actual listing of criminal deeds. What do I mean?

The indictment states that "THE ORGANIZATION" (i.e., THE INTERNET RESEARCH AGENCY) had the strategic purpose of sowing political discord in the United States. Okay. How do we know that? Did the owner of the IRA make such a statement or is there a written document or recorded conversation in which he made the claim? We do not know. There is not one piece of solid evidence in the entire document that substantiates that claim. It is nothing more than an assertion of belief. That is not how one writes an indictment alleging criminal conduct.

Also worth noting that the indictment provides not hard evidence, either documentary or the claim by a confidential informant, of THE ORGANIZATION acting on behalf of or at the direction of the Russian Government. Again, it is assumed but nothing even approaching solid evidence is proffered in this document.

There are three Federal statutes that the Russian citizens are alleged to have violated:

 

Age of Intolerance by Richard Sale

Or perhaps it is more accurate to label it,  “The Age of impudence.”

Not everyone has a sound or perceptive mind and the powers of expression needed to articulate its thoughts, but today, thanks to Social Media, no one escapes its malignant, magpie scrutiny.

Today everything is a “controversy,” because today everyone has a voice. “No one is exempt from silly things. The misfortune comes when they say them earnestly. They put themselves at great pains to issue trifles,” said the Roman playwright Terence. Today we have Whoopie Goldberg on The View lecturing the wife of New England quarterback Tom Brady because Whoopie took umbrage about something the wife said to their daughter about Tom’s loss at the Super Bowl.  Apparently Brady’s wife wasn’t humble enough. Shaun White got savaged because he dragged the American flag after he won Gold at the Olympics. (That strikes me as a mistake, not a crime, but several critics still managed to throw a lot of sand.)

It used to be that nation states embodied their own ends. Today, ordinary people do. In the past, the multitude revered certain things – political or religious authority, great scholars, outstanding physicists, sculptors, painters, and builders.

These have lost their allure. Today what the average person admires is him or herself. Such people embody the definition “smug” – which means that you are happy with yourself as you are, with no need to improve or perfect, as the great Spanish philosopher Ortega points out. Such people see in their nature no limitations, no dullness, no shortcomings of mind or temperament or experience. They cede no authority to anything outside themselves. Success used to belong to the gifted. No more. Success today is due to popularity or fame. Anything that isn’t immediately accessible is dead in the water. Originality is overlooked, and complexity is an annoyance. If it doesn’t sound familiar, what merit can it have? Popularity judges things by their fame and extent. If it’s a best seller, it has merit because so many have bought it.

We used to respect linage, goof manners, grace, bodily carriage, wit and learning. No more. Today, we Americans live in a mass democracy. Our happiness does not reside in our intellectual exertions - our attempts to master history or science or enrich our minds by studying or art and literature. Such things seem foreign to us; they offer little excitement.

It is a bitter fact that with equality comes anarchy. No one subordinates themselves to any set of rules any more. Equality strips away prudent restraints. The dullest among us is free to insult the brightest. Why not? If you write or say anything that someone doesn’t like, they shoot their poisoned arrows at you. Some enjoy seeing you in pain.  They feel pleasure at seeing you writhe. Your suicide amuses them. There are such people.

“Tis sweet when the sea is high and the wind is driving .  To view from the shore, another’s anguished striving,” said the great poet Lucretius.

A Plethora of Events in Northwest Syria - TTG

A plethora of events have hit this corner of Syria in the last week in addition to the grinding Turkish-FSA offensive in Afrin. That offensive has continued to nibble at the border areas and is now in a position to lay siege to the city of Rajou. Erdogan is feeling his oats. Speaking in his parliment on 13 February, Erdogan responded to continued US support for the Rojava Kurds and a CENTCOM spokesman’s recent threat to thwart any Turkish attack on Manbij.

“It is clear that those who say ‘we will respond aggressively if you hit us’ have never experienced an Ottoman slap,” Erdoğan told his AKP deputies in parliament. “We will destroy every terrorist we have seen, starting with the ones standing by their side. Then they will understand that it is better for them to not to stand alongside the terrorists.”  

This talk made a definite impression on the Trump administration, if not on the distracted President himself. On 14 February SecDef Mattis and Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli met during a NATO Defense Ministerial meeting in Brussels. A DOD spokeseman said they met to reassure the longstanding relationship between the two allies. This was followed by a meeting in Ankara between H.R. McMaster and his Turkish counterpart. Tillerson then met with Erdogan without a State Department interpreter. In an unusual move, Tillerson relied on a Turkish government interpreter. This was a mistake. I think Tillerson was played by Erdogan. After this meeting, Tillerson explained:

“We want to coordinate how to stabilize areas together and who will occupy those areas. And the objective and intent is to return these villages, these cities back to the composition of people who were there before they were overrun by Daesh. So we’re going to address Manbij first. It’s one of the first areas we’re going to work on. The United States made commitments to Turkey previously. We’ve not completed fulfilling those commitments. Through the working group we’re going to address that, and Manbij is going to receive priority.”

This sounds like Tillerson promised to keep YPG/SDF forces east of the Euphrates as was promised long before the YPG offensive to take Manbij back in 2016. This can’t play well among the YPG fighters, YPD political leaders and the Kurds of Afrin. This is evident in the recent YPG pulling out of Deir Ezzor to reinforce Afrin, with the support of Damascus, leaving CENTCOM with the CIA trained, DOS funded former jihadis from IS and Al Qaeda called the Deir Ezzor MilitaryCouncil to confront both the IS and the SAA in Deir Ezzor.

There was another set of negotiations going on last week. Damascus and the Kurds were attempting to come to an agreement as to when the SAA will move into Afrin to defend the northern border of Syria and under what conditions that move will take place. The Kurdish position was that the SAA would only move to the northwest border with Turkey and act as border guards. Damascus wanted the full return of Afrin to SAR control and the disarmament of independent YPG forces. Kurdish fighters would become part of the SAA. The news of on-again-off-again agreements have been circulating for days. My guess is that the two sides are meeting somewhere in the middle. A Kurdish report (ANF) claimed that the Russians were initially obstructing these talks for some reason. Interesting, if true. The same sources, along with Elijah Magnier, claim the agreement talks about an eventual joint SAA-YPG operation to retake al-Bab and Jarabulus. Even more interesting. Al Masdar News reports NDF units from al-Safira are poised to enter Afrin within a few hours. I have no idea what other Syrian units might enter Afrin. The cream of the SAA is now concentrated outside Damascus to take the Ghouta pocket. Clearly any SAA military move into Afrin will be an economy of force move to forestall further Turkish incursions into Afrin and to separate the Kurds from CENTCOM and the Trump administration. It is a move of political finesse rather than military force.

Back on the ground, another ominous event is in motion. The Turks have sent several convoys into rural Idlib to establish positions that seem to be designed to block further SAA advances once the battle for Idlib recommences. There could be something to this. However, under the Astana Accords, Turkey is to establish a series of twelve monitoring centers throughout this part of Idlib. Given the recent advances of the SAA into the eastern part of Idlib, the prearranged locations of the monitoring centers do appear to be more a blocking action than a fulfillment of an agreement. The two maps below illustrate this conundrum. The one on the left shows the proposed Turkish zone in green, the Russian zone in blue and the Syrian zone in purple. The map on the right shows the current advances by the SAA into the Astana proposed de-escalation zone and the locations of the existing Turkish monitoring stations. I circled them for easier viewing. 

  

In conjunction with the establishment of these monitoring stations, Turkey resumed its financial support to the FSA and the Ahrar al-Sham Movement in northern Syria. This aid replaces the US program that was halted on 18 December 2017. Syrian experts expect that most of this new Turkish support will find its way to HTS and will be used to launch more attacks against the SAA in southern Idlib or northern Hama. These monitoring stations will be a convenient mechanism for coordinating the aid to the jihadis. They will have to be dealt with at some point in the future, Astana Accords or not.

TTG

One if by Land, Two if by Sea, Three if by GCHQ. The British are Coming! The British are Coming! Observations on a tangled tale, by Fred

It was a dark and stormy daniels night. In the daylight you know when they are going to use the bayonet. It is in the darkest hours of night that you least expect someone will use cold Steele to drive a dagger into the heart of American democracy - our system of free and fair elections. 

He doesn't look dangerous, does he? He looks like the very image of a noble ally, not like some ignoble troll. What possible deed could he have done to draw the ire eye of the American government? We know what Russian trolls did. Check the 13 Troll indictment:

"U.S. law bans foreign nationals from making certain expenditures or financial disbursements for the purpose of influencing federal elections. U.S. law also bars agents of any foreign entity from engaging in political activities within the United States without first registering with the Attorney General." 

" strategic goal to sow discord in the U.S. political system, including the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ..... derogatory information....."

Mueller or DoJ should reach and announce closure on ...

(Editorial Comment)

The indictment concerning the Russian information ops campaign should not be the end of Mueller's enquiries and the announced public results of his efforts.  For example:

1.  Did Trump and/or his associates conspire with Russia or Russians to rig the 2016 US election?

2.  How did the DNC and Podesta e-mails end up in the pages of Wikileaks?

3.  What is the provenance and funding of the Steele dossier?  Was there criminality involved in production and promotion of this paper whether at the DNC, the Clinton Campaign, GPS Fusion  or among various officials of DoJ or the FBI?

4.  Was there an actual "insurance policy" sought by officials of the FBI and DoJ as a plot to conspiratorially thwart Trump's election or subsequently his ability to govern?

5.  Was there an actual conspiracy among the leaders of the IC and FBI to block Trump's election by selective media placement of claims about him?  Brennan's recent appointment as a "contributor" at CNN is interesting in that regard.

6.  Did the aforesaid leaders of the IC obtain from British intelligence material held by them that was then used against Trump?

Mueller has made a good start with the St. Petersburg 13.  He needs to clear up the rest or these "loose ends" will remain forever in the realm of urban myth and partisan propaganda.  pl 

The text of the indictment of the SVR 13.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/rosenstein-mueller-indictment-russia/553601/

Looks to me like a very professional operation  I look forward to more indictments. Let's see them!  pl

Who Is Lying? John Brennan or James Comey? by Publius Tacitus

Sorry to belabor the point of the Deep State conspiracy, but the tenacious insistence of TTG in clinging to Democrat talking points and refusing to step back and objectively look at the facts demands an answer.

He is upset because I refused to post his comments to my last posting. He does a masterful job of seizing on an issue, such as John Brennan's briefing to key members of Congress sometime in August 2016, and insisting that this proves that Brennan was on the up and up. What I did not put on paper was the fact that I have spoken to one of the members of Congress briefed by Brennan and the content was not as advertised. Everyone did not get the same brief.

But let's go back and look at what Brennan was leaking to the press about this supposedly damning intelligence. If it really was as clear cut and damning, as TTG and others seem willing to believe, then we are faced with having to conclude that the Obama Administration, including Obama himself, endangered America's security or that the info was based on innuendo and conjecture. 

Let's keep the timeline straight:

1. The FBI learns from Christopher Steele in early July that the Russians reportedly are in cahoots with Donald Trump, who also happens to have a golden shower fetish. The FBI opens a counter intelligence case.
2. John Brennan supposedly receives intelligence from a different source that Vladimir Putin is not only meddling in the US election in order to sow chaos but to get Donald Trump elected.
3. Brennan then, at the urging for Barack Obama, supposedly briefs this incredible material to members of Congress.

Okay, so TTG wants us to believe that all members of the Congressional leadership got the same briefing and that it had nothing to do with the Steele memo. This is total bullshit. Let's go to the record.

Seven Years into the Civil War: What is left of the "Syrian Arab Army" ?

By Patrick BAHZAD

Time and again since 2011, there have been reports about the erosion of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), with some observers even arguing that there is not much left of it. The influx of pro-regime foreign fighters in particular has been a point of contention among experts. However, while statements regarding the alleged state of disarray of the SAA are exaggerated, there is no doubt that today's force only vaguely resembles what it used to be seven years ago.

When making comparisons over time, it is important to remember where the starting point was, before assessing the nature and quality of the changes that occured. As far as the SAA is concerned, this means taking into account the fact that it used to be largely a conscript army, based on the Soviet model, but with a Middle-Eastern background. In 2011, the SAA officially featured a total strength in excess of 200 000 men in full battle order, but it would probably be fair to say that its combat readiness at that time did not amount to much.

There were very few professional regiment or brigade sized units and those that existed were more of a praetorian guard protecting the regime against enemies from within, rather than a proper field army that could have sustained combat against battle hardened adversaries. Therefore, it was no surprise that news of mass desertions, in particular in the first year of the war, prompted many experts into thinking that the SAA would dissolve pretty quickly, thereby taking down the regime with it.

Structural changes induced by high casualty rates

Nothing of the sort has happened however, for various reasons, and the SAA is currently the largest – and possibly the only – multi-confessional armed force in the region. That is not to say that large segments of the Sunni population have not gone over to the opposition, but the narrative of a totally sectarian SAA does not reflect reality. If it did, the war would not have lasted this long anyway ! Through the various phases of the war, the SAA underwent significant changes however, linked first of all to the casualties it suffered.

Estimates may vary, but it is clear that government forces (whether SAA as such, or pro-regime militias) have been seriously diminished by the fighting. This attrition has forced Assad and his allies to restructure his force. It is probably safe to assume that 150 000 regime troops have been KIA so far, possibly more. This is a very high casualty rate, considering the limited demographic pool that Assad can count on (around 10 million people in total). Such a figure would be roughly equal to some 450 000 KIA in the case of the US. Needless to say, no army survives casualties that high without undergoing serious change.

In this regard, two elements need to be mentioned: first of all, until 2015, efforts at reorganizing the SAA followed Iranian principles of decentralizing defences and recruiting local militias that were loosely placed under the authority of the "National Defence Forces" (NDF). Ever since the Russian intervention in 2015 however, at a time of great peril for the regime, the restructuring has focused on reinforcing the SAA as such, with a "train and equip" program of Russian making, as well as the implementation of new centralized "command and control" structures for increased efficiency on the battlefield.

This is not a billboard.

How many times do I have to tell you that?  Comments that consist in the main of quotations will not be published.  pl

Another response to Publius Tacitus concerning those meddlesome Russians - TTG

In the latest posting by Publius Tacitus concerning this subject, he made the following claim.

“In other words, if the Russians really were in a full court press beyond their normal propaganda activities, then the intelligence community should have been galvanized to collect more information and should have briefed the leaders of the Senate and House intelligence committees. That did not happen. Key Republican leaders DID NOT, I repeat NOT, receive such a briefing. For example, Devin Nunes, the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, did not get briefed by Brennan or any of his minions on this subject.”

I took issue with this interpretation of events in a response to a question posed by Fred.

“Brennan started briefing the Gang of Eight individually beginning with Reid. He finished all individual briefings on 5 Sep 2016 commenting that it proved difficult to get appointments and talk with certain Republicans. Obama also sent Comey, Jeh Johnston and Lisa Monaco to brief the "Gang of Twelve" that included the chairmen and ranking minority members of Homeland Security and Intelligence to seek bipartisan support to respond forcefully to the Russians in early Sep 2016. McConnell reacted forcefully to stifle the intelligence and any forceful response saying “he would consider any effort by the White House to challenge the Russians publicly an act of partisan politics.”” 

I got it mostly right, but upon further research I discovered I was wrong about the 5 September date. It was 6 September. Publius Tacitus still took issue with this insisting “Brennan did not brief all of the Republicans.” I offered further proof of my claim in two comments which Publius chose not to publish. That is his prerogative as a guest writer here. I’ve decided to continue the discussion in this post. That is my prerogative as a guest writer… subject to the final decision of Colonel Lang, of course. Both Publius and I must abide by those decisions.

I offer the testimony of John Brennan given before the HPSCI on 23 May 2017 to bolster my case that Brennan did brief the “Gang of Eight” on the intelligence community’s initial findings that Russia was interfering with the 2016 elections. 

“Again, in consultation with the White House, I PERSONALLY briefed the full details of our understanding of Russian attempts to interfere in the election to congressional leadership; specifically: Senators Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, Dianne Feinstein and Richard Burr; and to representatives Paul Ryan, Nancy Pelosi, Devin Nunes and Adam Schiff between 11th August and 6th September [2016], I provided the same briefing to each of the gang of eight members.”

“Given the highly sensitive nature of what was an active counter-intelligence case [that means the FBI], involving an ongoing Russian effort, to interfere in our presidential election, the full details of what we knew at the time were shared only with those members of congress; each of whom was accompanied by one senior staff member.” 

This particular transcription of Brennan’s remarks was done by a darling of the deep state conspiracy crowd, sundance. Sundance was also kind enough to provide a video of Brennan’s remarks. Note that Brennan names those he briefed and that list included Nunes. Sundance accepts Brennan’s account of these meetings and, in fact, uses those remarks to beat Comey over the head over a related issue.

As long as I’m writing a post, I might as well address a couple of other points raised by Publius Tacitus. There was no “formal lack of response by the intelligence community.” Prior to the briefing of the “Gang of Eight,” Brennan established an intelligence task force of a couple dozen analysts from CIA, NSA and FBI to focus on the issue of Russian interference. This is probably the same team that wrote the January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment. The establishment of this task force was preceded by intelligence obtained by the CIA through some kind of SIGINT, HUMINT or bilateral (FVEY) operation that detailed Putin’s direct involvement in the cyber campaign to disrupt and discredit the US election. This intelligence also captured Putin’s instructions on the operation’s eventual objectives, to defeat or at least damage Clinton, and help elect Trump. Brennan sent this intelligence directly to Obama by courier prior to the “Gang of Eight” briefings. I remember the widespread outcry when the existence of this intelligence came out. It appeared to blow an apparent US penetration of Russian government secure communications. Maybe it did. But Brennan’s call to FSB director, Alexander Bortnikov, on 4 August 2016 warning him to knock it off probably tipped off the Russians long before the public outing of the intelligence as did Obama’s face to face warning to Putin at the G20 Summit that he knew what Putin was doing and warned him to knock it off.

In addition to this intelligence, the IC had at that time intelligence from Estonia (and maybe others) about Page’s June trip to Moscow, the Dutch observation of Cozy Bear activities and the report from Australia about Popadopoulis’ drunken ramblings in a London bar. None of that came from the Steele dossier. All of that is conveniently ignored by the deep state conspiracy theorists. All the information Reid referenced in his letter to Comey probably came from his briefing by Brennan, but we can reasonably disagree on the role or non-role of the Steele dossier. 

In my earlier response to Publius Tacitus, I noted the forcefulness of McConnell in preventing a public release of intelligence about Russian meddling or a public response to that meddling. At that point in time, the Republican desire to keep this issue quiet can be seen as a reasonable maneuver of political electioneering… or healthy skepticism. However, perhaps there’s more to it than that. There are dueling conspiracy theories swirling around this whole Russia thing. Nunes was close to Flynn and was on the Trump transition team. I think he’s too close to this to not recuse himself altogether, rather than this half-hearted recusal he currently claims. His continued efforts to derail the Mueller investigation smacks of conspiracy in my mind. 

We still need to wait for the Mueller investigation to run its course and hope that the results will be released to the public.  We need that and the results of the ongoing FBI IG investigation. Until then we’ll continue to gleefully argue our respective points in a vacuum. Unless your comments are unusually abrasive and contribute nothing to the conversation, I’ll publish them.

TTG

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/05/23/massive-contradiction-john-brennan-completely-contradicts-fbi-director-james-comey-on-congressional-notification/

Open thread for the usual post shooting chaos.

pl

Pieces of the Coup Puzzle Fall Into Place by Publius Tacitus

Most people, including many of you, have the memory of an Alzheimer's patient when it comes to putting events into their proper historical context. So let me help. Do you remember when Donald Trump first started talking about the Presidential election being possibly rigged? That was in early August 2016. He said:

"I'm afraid the election's going to be rigged. I have to be honest," Trump told voters in Ohio, a crucial swing state. . . . Trump added that he has heard "more and more" that the November election will be rigged -- suggesting to his supporters that the outcome of the election is out of the hands of voters.

So here is Trump raising the concern about "MEDDLING" in the Presidential election and the Democrats went wild denouncing his craziness:

Hillary Clinton's spokesman Brian Fallon mocked Trump on Twitter Tuesday morning, writing, "Even for a reflexive conspiracy theorist like Trump, this is pathetic. It's dangerous, too."

But less than one month later we have Michael Isikoff warning that unnamed intelligence officials are warning about Russian efforts to rig the election. He made the following key points:

• U.S. intelligence officials have told key members of Congress that they are trying to determine whether Carter Page, an American businessman identified as a Trump foreign policy advisers, opened up private communications with senior Russian officials
• Sen. Dianne Feinstein, ranking minority member on the Senate Intelligence Committee, and Rep. Adam Schiff, ranking minority member on the House Intelligence Committee — released a joint statement stating that, "we have concluded that the Russian intelligence agencies are making a serious and concerted effort to influence the U.S. election."
• U.S. officials have since received intelligence reports that during that same three-day trip, Page met with Igor Sechin, a longtime Putin associate and former Russian deputy prime minister who is now the executive chairman of Rosneft, Russian’s leading oil company, a well-placed Western intelligence source tells Yahoo News.
• U.S. intelligence agencies have also received reports that Page met with another top Putin aide while in Moscow — Igor Diveykin.

It is important to note that at least two of the sources for Isikoff were FBI paid intelligence asset, Christopher Steele and persons from the US intelligence agencies. It is not the FBI that is telling "key members of Congress" about Carter Page. And it is "intelligence reports" that are cited, not FBI personnel, in identifying Igor Sechin and Igor Diveykin as the Russians Page met with.

This is where it gets dicey for former CIA Director John Brennan.

Why the center booster crashed ...

 

"When SpaceX's Falcon Heavy blasted off last Tuesday (Feb. 6) from NASA's Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A in Florida, the rocket's three first-stage boosters were expected to return to Earth and land much like the company's Falcon 9 rocket stages. The Falcon Heavy's two side boosters landed successfully (and simultaneously) on twin pads at the nearby Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, but the center core crashed and burned. 

That core booster, which was expected to land offshore on SpaceX's drone ship "Of Course I Still Love You," crashed when two of three engines did not fire during a final landing burn, Musk told reporters after the launch. The booster missed the landing ship by about 328 feet (100 meters) and hit the water at 300 mph (484 km/h), damaging thrusters on the nearby droneship, Musk has said.

On Monday, we learned a bit more in Musk's Twitter posts. The two engines did not fire because they ran out of ignition fluid, Musk said.

"Not enough ignition fluid to light the outer two engines after several three engine relights," Musk wrote. "Fix is pretty obvious.""  Space.com

--------------

 This is interesting in many ways.  The thing ran out of lighter fluid.  What?  Someone did not fill up the tank?  This reminds me of the incident in which a Canada Air mechanic newly transferred from Europe had liters in his head rather than gallons and did not put enough fuel in the tanks.  The airplane ran out of fuel at cruising altitude and the pilots glided it to a landing on an abandoned RCAF airfield.

This booster hit the water near the drone ship.  What is a drone ship?  Does it steam to its destination with no one on board?

I had not known that SpaceX was planning to recover the fairings and apparently other parts of the front end of its rockets.  How would that work?  The recovery ship has long articulated arms.  They would catch the falling fairings? 

And who is this science fiction writer who Musk admirers so much?  pl  

https://www.space.com/39690-elon-musk-explains-falcon-heavy-core-booster-crash.html

Israel Police Recommend Charging Prime Minister Netanyahu With Bribery in Two Cases - Haaretz

 

Israel Police will recommend indicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in two corruption investigations."

The two cases are the so-called Case 1000 – in which Netanyahu is suspected of accepting lavish gifts from wealthy benefactors in return for advancing their interests – and Case 2000, which alleges that Netanyahu tried to strike a deal that would have provided him with positive coverage in Israel's second largest newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, in exchange for hurting its free rival, Israel Hayom."  Haaretz

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What would Jabotinsky have thought of Natanyahu's administration of the Israeli haven for the oppressed among the world's Jews?

He probably  would have liked the ruthless disregard of the welfare of neighboring peoples.  He probably would have liked the ruthless manipulation of the good will of Americans of all tribes to gain mastery of US policy.

I think he would not have liked the evident willingness to sell one's office for the goods of this world. 

Champagne?  Luxury foods.?  Use of government employees and contractors to repair one's personal property?

For shame!  pl 

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/police-set-to-publish-recommendations-in-netanyahu-corruption-probes-1.5812016?utm_source=Push_Notification&utm_medium=web_push&utm_campaign=General

Time to clean up the Homs desert pocket.

"On February 11, the Tiger Forces began redeploying their units and equipment from the northeastern Hama countryside to Homs governorate. According to Syrian pro-government activists, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the Tiger Forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces are preparing to launch a large scale military operation against the besieged ISIS forces in the Homs desert.

The SAA and its allies had besieged more than 500 ISIS fighters in the Homs desert after securing the western bank of the Euphrates River on December 17, 2017. Since then, the SAA has not launched any military operation in the Homs desert as it was busy conducting much needed defensive and offensive operations in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo governorates.

Syrian experts believe that the besieged ISIS fighters in Homs desert pocket are well armed and experienced as most of them participated in several attacks against the SAA in 2017. Moreover, it is high possibility that prominent commanders of ISIS are currently besieged in the pocket.

A source close to the Tiger Forces told SouthFront that the military operation against ISIS in the Homs desert pocket will not begin soon, as the SAA and its allies are currently resupplying their troops and waiting for the weather there to improve."    SF

----------

Well pilgrims, having watched the Syria war closely for several years I feel confident in saying that the transformation of the SAA from the garrison army of a dictatorial state into a first rate fighting force is remarkable.  Behind the shield provided by the Russian supply and training efforts the leaders who emerged from the maelstrom of the war are obviously a pretty solid lot.  Among them one man stands apart in his leadership qualities.  That is Suheil Hassan, the Alawi creator and commander of the Tiger Forces armored task force. He stands at the left in this photo.  The picture says much of his leadership style, relaxed, informal, and at home with his people.  If he survives the war, he will be a lion who will dominate the regional scene.  I would think that his chances of survival are not good.  His rivals in Syria must hate him.  The Israelis are eventually going to focus on him. 

The Tiger Force has been fully engaged in the recent eradication of the east Hama pocket.  Now they have been pulled out of the line of battle for rest, re-fitting and re-supply in preparation for eradication of the big IS pocket out in the eastern desert south of the Sukhna-Deir al-Zor highway.  I presume that they will form the spearheads for this operation, reinforced by  other SAA formations and National Defense Force irregular militia.  As usual the force will ride a wave of air attack in its progress.

When that is done, you can expect the Tiger Forces to return to the Idlib Province front.  pl 

https://southfront.org/tiger-forces-to-participate-in-anti-isis-operation-in-homs-desert/

Open Thread - 11 February 2018

pl

A Game Changer

 

"Additionally to the downed F-16I of the Israeli Air Force, at least one Israeli F-15 warplane wad damaged by a Syrian missile and was forced to make an emergency landing on February 10, the Al Arabiya TV network reported citing own sources.

According to unconfirmed report, in total 3 Israeli warplanes were damaged additionally to the F-16 which was downed by the Syrian forces earlier on February 10.

If these reports are at least partly confirmed this will be one of the biggest Israeli failures in the recent time."  SF

------------

Israeli collective psychology is based on an assumed military and cultural superiority to the Arab states surrounding them.  For them to lose an F-16 to the Syrian Air Defenses as well as to suffer damage to several F-15s is an unacceptable challenge to their self image and to the intimidating effect that they seek.

For the Israelis this defiance of their usual air supremacy requires massive retaliation.  This is ongoing.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system 

https://southfront.org/at-least-one-israeli-f-15-was-damaged-additionally-to-downed-f-16i-in-recent-encounter-with-syrian-forces-media/

The generals are not Borgists. They are something worse ...

 

(Editorial Statement)

The Borgist foreign policy of the administration has little to do with the generals.

To comprehend the generals  one must understand their collective mentality and the process that raised them on high as a collective of their own. The post WW2 promotion process in the armed forces has produced a group at the top with a mentality that typically thinks rigorously but not imaginatively or creatively. These men got to their present ranks and positions by being conformist group thinkers who do not stray outside the "box" of their guidance from on high. They actually have scheduled conference calls among themselves to make sure everyone is "on board."

If asked at the top, where military command and political interaction intersect, what policy should be they always ask for more money and to be allowed to pursue outcomes that they can understand as victory and self fulfilling with regard to their collective self image as warrior chieftains.

In Obama's time they were asked what policy should be in Afghanistan and persuaded him to reinforce their dreams in Afghanistan no matter how unlikely it always was that a unified Western oriented nation could be made out of a collection of disparate mutually alien peoples.

In Trump's time his essential disinterest in foreign policy has led to a massive delegation of authority to Mattis and the leadership of the empire's forces. Their reaction to that is to look at their dimwitted guidance from on high (defeat IS, depose Assad and the SAG, triumph in Afghanistan) and to seek to impose their considerable available force to seek accomplishment as they see fit of this guidance in the absence of the kind of restrictions that Obama placed on them.

Like the brass, I, too, am a graduate of all those service schools that attend success from the Basic Course to the Army War College.

I will tell you again that the people at the top are not good at "the vision thing." They are not stupid at all but they are a collective of narrow thinkers. pl

To War, To War, This Country’s Going to War” - TTG

I’m afraid the recent “defensive attack” by US attack helicopters and artillery on Syrian tribesmen loyal to Damascus is not just a one-off fluke. It is a feature of the current US policy in Syria that will most likely result in another full blown war in the region… one that will put the US on a track to war with Russia. 

First, here’s an account of the fighting southeast of Deir Ezzor on the eastern side of the Euphrates taken from the twitter feed of Maxim A. Suchkov, Russian editor for Al-Monitor. I’ve put it into prose form and corrected some spelling/grammar for easier reading.

**************************

“Russia’s Defense Ministry on US-coalition killing of 100+ pro-Assad forces: "The incident once again exposed true American intentions in Syria which is not the fight against terrorism but seizure &  control of economic assets." Russia’s MoD version of the incident:"On Feb.7, a Syrian pro-Assad militia was making an incursion to destroy a terrorist group which had been sporadically shelling pro-gov positions.The SYR militia was near El Isba, former oil refinery, 17 km south-east of Salkhiyakh. Suddenly, the Syrian pro-Assad militia came under mortar and multiple artillery rocket system fire, shortly followed by US helicopter strikes. 25 militiamen were wounded (no mention of how many killed). Russia's MoD suggests the US attack on pro-Assad militia were made possible because "the militia movements hadn’t been coordinated with the Russian military there." Following the attack Russia hosted reps of US coalition forces in Khmeymim airbase for talks during which according to Moscow, US told the oil refinery was under SDF and US control (which probably was meant to say "stay out" and what prompted Russian response on US trying to seize Syrian economic assets). Finally, Russian MoD claims attacks on Syrian pro-gov positions are getting more frequent over recent days from settlements of Mazlum, Al-Tabiya, and Ksh Sham. Moscow references its military radio intercepts saying it's done by one of ISIS "sleeper cells."  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

**************************

Maxim A. Suchov continues with the Russian reaction to the attack.

**************************

Follow-up on Moscow’s reaction to US strike on Syrian pro-gov forces: 

1. Russia's UN Ambassador Nebenzya will raise the issue at the upcoming UN Security Council closed-door briefing on the humanitarian situation in Syria.
2. Moscow is now conducting a thorough investigation of the incident, Russia’s MFA asks "How could a decision to open a massive fire to defeat the Syrian militiamen be made in such a short period of time [between SDF attacks and time US aviation came to the field]?”
3. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova: "US military presence in Syria presents a serious challenge to the peace process and thwarts the protection of the country's territorial integrity."
4. Russia’s MFA spox Zakharova: "A 55-kilometer zone unilaterally created by US around mil base near al-Tanf used by scattered units of Daesh terrorists [who] have opportunity to hide from gov forces in area as well as regroup and prepare for new raids in the Syrian deserts"  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

**************************

An editorial in the pro-Turkish government paper “The Daily Sabah” lays the blame squarely on the shoulders of an out of control Pentagon and rogue CENTCOM generals. In so many words, they call on Trump to grow a pair and correct the situation. The full editorial is well worth reading.

**************************

“During his 2016 election campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump kept asking: "Why are we in Syria and Afghanistan?" He called for an end to entanglements abroad and a focus on domestic problems. President Barack Obama's Syria policy was based on little more than indifference and, the Trump administration just automatically adopted it.

After all these years, the U.S. still does not have a good grasp on what its policies on Syria are. What does it want to achieve? What is its endgame? What kind of timeframe has it settled on to achieve its objectives? American politicians seem clueless about what they have gotten themselves into.

No one knows who is in charge of the U.S.'s Syria policy. Chaos reigns. Who do we call to ask what the U.S. is doing in Syria?

It seems that with no lead from the top, United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has decided it is the boss. While operationally, it is good that soldiers are in charge, it seems soldiers have also taken over the decision making that should be under the purview of elected officials. CENTCOM and its officers now make statements, formulate strategies and even conduct diplomacy. Turkey has a history of power-hungry generals seeing themselves as guardians of the country and the U.S. is well-advised not to repeat it.”  (Daily Sabah)

**************************

Maxim Suchkov holds out a similar hope that Trump, himself, will step in and right the ship. He retweeted Trump and provided a comment to that tweet.

“I will be meeting with Henry Kissinger at 1:45pm. Will be discussing North Korea, China and the Middle East.” (@realDonaldTrump)

“Very interesting given Kissinger has now long been Putin’s go-to on messaging of Russia’s own position on same issues. Putin also holds Kissinger in high regard, seeking his wisdom, experience and balanced analysis of US-related matters."  (@MSuchkov_ALM)

I certainly hope Suchkov and the editors at The Daily Sabah are correct and that our current course in Syria is a temporary result of Trump’s inattention. The thought that a simple rage-filled outburst, accompanied by a few firings, can correct our course is oddly reassuring. However, I also have my doubts. Are the generals deflecting Trump by mentioning we control the Syrian oilfields when the President brings up the issue? Are the generals filling the President’s head with fears of Hezbollah and IRGC hordes running rampant across Syria?

Al-Monitor has an article out today extensively quoting Secretary of Defense Mattis. He downplays the role of Russia in Syria and Russian influence over Assad. He seems to be downplaying the risks that our aggressive talk and actions in Syria could lead to a confrontation with Russia. Well I think this jarhead is full of crap this time. To reinforce this man’s fullness of crap, a story appears this morning in Al Masdar News about attacks by the US controlled Deir Ezzor Military Council on SAA and NDF forces in Khashim and Tabiyyah on the Eastern shore of the Euphrates. Unlike the YPG/SDF, the Deir Ezzor Military Council is on the direct payroll of the State Department. This is a dangerous game we are playing.

TTG

https://twitter.com/msuchkov_alm

https://www.dailysabah.com/editorial/2018/02/08/us-generals-turning-into-warlords-in-syria-hijacking-us-foreign-policy

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/pentagon-play-down-russia-influence-syria-clash-sdf.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-us-led-forces-launch-offensive-syrian-army-deir-ezzor/

What's next for SpaceX?

 

"And finally, there's the BFR: the ship Musk wants to use to colonize Mars.

On paper, SpaceX's Big Falcon Rocket looks like the megarocket to end all megarockets. It's a completely reusable launch system and features a massive spaceship on top of an equally massive booster powered by 31 SpaceX Raptor engines. (The Falcon Heavy uses 27 of the company's Merlin engines.) [The BFR: SpaceX's Mars-Colonization Architecture in Images]

The combined rocket and spaceship will stand 348 feet (106 meters) and will be able to launch 150 tons (136 metric tons) to low Earth orbit (LEO), making the BFR more powerful than NASA's Saturn V moon rocket, which could launch 135 tons (122 metric tons) to LEO. (The Falcon Heavy may be the most powerful rocket in operation today, but it would take more than one to match the Saturn V, Musk said.)"  Space.com

-----------

I hope to see the BFR fly.  pl 

https://www.space.com/39632-spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-whats-next.html

Syria Notes - 8 february 2018

 

On February 7, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed up by the Russian Aerospace Forces, repelled a Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) attack on its positions in the southeastern Idlib countryside, according to Syrian pro-government sources. The SAA reportedly killed and injured several fighters of HTS and its allies during the clashes.

Additionally, Russian warplanes destroyed several headquarters and ammo depots of the so-called Free Idlib Army in the city of Maarrat al-Nu’man in the southern Idlib countryside, according to Syrian activists.

Syrian opposition sources revealed that thirteen Free Idlib Army fighters, including their general commander “Mohammad Abu Najib”, were killed in the Russian airstrikes on Maarrat al-Nu’man. Russian warplanes also destroyed more than four vehicles armed with anti-aircraft guns belonging to the group.  SF

----------------

 The SAA is rapidly eliminating jihadist forces in the East Hama pocket.  Bereft of a source of re-supply through encirclement the jihadis are being rapidly overrun and destroyed.  By the time of this writing that pocket may be altogether eliminated.  This will free up the forces involved to return to the attritional grinding process underway NW of Abu Duhur around the town of Tel Sultan.   The SAA made a decision to eliminate the East Hama pocket before continuing to the west into Idlib Province.  At their positions around Tel Sultan they had clearly gone past the culminating point of their drive to Abu Duhur and although they could have continued immediately, the risk of a sudden reversal brought on by exactly the kind of jihadi counter-attack now underway would have been great.   Wisely they decided to improve the odds in their favor and have reduced the East Hama pocket to their operational rear and are bringing up more logistical support before continuing into Idlib.  The wealth of air support available to them has been a great help in this.  When they re-commence forward movement I hope they share my view that a right hook to Al-Eis to roll up the jihadi flank south of the Aleppo City is the best course of action. pl

 https://southfront.org/syrian-army-repels-hts-attack-in-southeastern-idlib-russian-warplanes-wipe-out-fsa-ammo-depots-video/

*********

"A local militia was conducting reconnaissance actions in the area to detect and eliminate the ISIS cell when it was surprisingly shelled by mortars, rocket launched and then the US-led coalition’s attack helicopters. 25 militiamen were injured as a result of the attack."  SF

------------

It appears to me thus far that the "troops" attacked were NDF militia from the area.  They are likely to be Arab tribesmen, heavily trained and advised by IRGC Quds force people and supported by SAA artillery and and armor.  These Arab tribesman are undoubtedly very hostile to the presence of the Kurdish SDF this far south of traditional Kurdish haunts.   The US is pursuing an enduring role in Syria and had previously warned the Russians and through them the SAG that intrusions east of the Euphrates in Deir al-Zor Province would be met by force.  This does not bode well for future US/SAG relations.  US and Iranian hegemonic ambitions are nose to nose in Eastern Syria.  pl  

https://southfront.org/russian-military-us-led-coalition-struck-syrian-troops-conducting-operation-against-isis-cells-in-deir-ezzor-province/

*********

 "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has rejected the recent statement by the head of Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, regarding a potential meeting between Ankara and Damascus.

“What would we talk about with a murderer who has killed a million of his citizens,” Erdogan said in his address to mukhtars— heads of Turkish villages and neighbourhoods—at the presidential complex in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, as quoted by TRT World."  AMN

-----------

The sultan is pretending to be motivated by concern for the Syrian peoples.  Nonsense.  He sees the opportunity to weaken Syria in pursuit of some future de facto annexations in northern Syria.    Unfortunately for him the TSK is not doing well in establishing "facts on the ground" to support such ambitions.  At the same time, the Turks are positioning small bodies of troops at Al-Eis, Idlib City and Saraqib supposedly to implement the Russian/Iranian/Turkish de-escalation agreement on Idlib Province but IMO their real purpose is to obstruct SAG recovery of the province.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-refuses-talks-assad-calls-murderer-million-citizens/

Did British Intelligence Try to Destroy the Trump Presidency? by Publius Tacitus

Last night's release of the memo by Senator's Grassley and Graham asking the Department of Justice to open a criminal investigation of Christopher Steele for possible violations of 18 U.S.C. § 1001 provides critical confirmation of charges presented in the HPSCI memo prepared under the leadership of Devin Nunes, but it also confirms that Christopher Steele was not just some random guy offering good gossip to the FBI. He was an official intelligence asset. He was, in John LeCarre's parlance, our "Joe." At least we thought so. But, there is growing circumstantial evidence that Steele was acting on behalf of Britain's version of the CIA--aka MI-6. If true, we are now faced with actual evidence of a foreign country trying to meddle in a direct and significant way in our national election. Only it was not the Russians. It was our British cousins.

Here are the key take aways from the Grassley/Graham memo:

• The FBI has since provided the Committee access to classified documents relevant to the FBI's relationship with Mr. Steele and whether the FBI relied on his dossier work. . . .it appears that either Mr. Steele lied to the FBI or the British court, or that the classified documents reviewed by the Committee contain materially false statements.
• October 21, 2016, the FBI filed its first warrant application under FISA for Carter Page. . .The bulk of the application consists of allegations against Page that were disclosed to the FBI by Mr. Steele and are also outlined in the Steele dossier. The application appears to contain no additional information corroborating the dossier allegations against Mr. Page, although it does cite to a news article that appears to be sourced to Mr. Steele's dossier as well.
• March 17, 2017--the Chairman and Ranking Member were provided copies of the two relevant FISA applications, which requested authority to conduct surveillance of Carter Page. Both relied heavily on Mr. Steele's dossier claims, and both applications were granted by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC).
• December of 2017, the Chairman, Ranking Member, and Subcommittee Chairman Graham were allowed to review a total of four FISA applications relying on the dossier to seek surveillance of Mr. Carter Page, as well as numerous other FBI documents relating to Mr. Steele.
• When asked at the March 2017 briefing why the FBI relied on the dossier in the FISA applications absent meaningful corroboration--and in light of the highly political motives surrounding its creation--then Director Corney stated that the FBI included the dossier allegations about Carter Page in the FISA applications because Mr. Steele himself was considered reliable due to his past work with the Bureau.
• In short, it appears the FBI relied on admittedly uncorroborated information, funded by and obtained for Secretary Clinton's presidential campaign, in order to conduct surveillance of an associate of the opposing presidential candidate. It did so based on Mr. Steele's personal credibility and presumably having faith in his process of obtaining the information.
• . . . the FBI continued to cite to Mr. Steele's past work as evidence of his reliability, and stated that ''the incident that led to the FBI suspending its relationship with [Mr. Steele] occurred after [Mr. Steele] provided" the FBI with the dossier infonnation described in the application. The FBI further asserted in footnote 19 that it did not ,believe that Steele directly gave information to Yahoo News that "published the September 23 News Article."

The Grassley/Graham memo is devastating for Jim Comey. We can entertain only two possibilities--Jim Comey is a monumental dunce or he is a liar. One need only read the Michael Isikoff piece from 23 September 2016 to realize that Christopher Steele was a primary source for Isikoff. We are asked to believe that Comey is a naive, trusting soul bereft of curiosity, who refused to entertain the possibility that Steele was double dealing intel.

One of the most surprising revelations from the Grassley/Graham memo is in footnote 7. I'm surprised this was not redacted because it is drawn from a redacted/blacked out paragraph. Here is a critical bit of intel:

The GRU and Turkish MI -The ties that bind ...

 

Attack Pilot Major Roman Filipov (RuAF) has been posthumously awarded the  "Hero of the Russian Federation" decoration.  Filipov was shot down near Saraqib while flying a ground attack mission against jihadi fighters massing to counter-attack SAA spearheads west of Abu Duhur town.  Filipov ejected from his aircraft and then fought it out with the jihadis on the ground until they gotthe better of him.  IMO opinion he richly deserved the aw ard.

The Russian expeditionary force needs to improve its Search and Rescue service so that more Russian air crew are not left to die alone in enemy hands.  US practice is such that a rescue package would have been standing by in the air with gunships and extraction birds waiting, waiting.

Saraqib is not in Turkish Armed Forces hands, but they clearly have men on the ground in the area and in liaison with the jihadis.  In that context, the GRU (Russian military intelligence) or lower level Russian MI were able to obtain the cooperation of the Turks in recovering Major Filipov's body.  People who exist outside the world of soldiering and its military intelligence function do not generally understand the level of collegiality that exists in that world.  That collegiality often extends across political boundaries and the momentary whims of politicians.  was Erdogan consulted?   Certainly, but the retrieval of Filipov's body speaks of more than that.  pl   

https://southfront.org/body-of-pilot-from-downed-su-25-brought-to-russia-ministry-of-defense/

Syria Notes - 5 February 2018

 

1.  Nikki Haley is either completely gullible or is in thrall to some collection of Borgists at State. Someone remarked of a previous US Secretary of State that "if only he were still alive this would not happen."  Unfortunately he was still alive and in office.  Much the same could be said of Rex Tillerson.  Haley is now tub thumping for US air attacks on Syria.  This a reprise of several previous US assertions of Syrian Arab Government (SAG) use of chemical weapons including the East Ghouta and Khan Sheikhoun fiascos.  After Khan Sheikhoun the SAG invited US and UN investigations of the air base but somehow this was not accepted.  Now James Mattis is asserting that the SAG is manufacturing chemical munitions although the US has no evidence of this as yet.  I believe this is called "confirmation bias?"

2.  As shown above , the SAA is committed to elimination of the East Idlib pocket.  The jihadis are without re-supply and will progressively be running out of the means of resistance.  This should not take too long and is actually a good idea before proceeding further into Idlib Province to the west.  I believe I expressed an opinion as to the wisdom of such a move.

3.  The SAA has begun shelling the Turkish strong point (observation post) at Al-Eis.  The Turks have been attempting tricky cleverness by claiming that they are occupying the hill at Al--Eis un accord with a Russian/Iranian/Turkish de-escalation igreement.  In fact IMO they are seeking to position themselves so as to impede SAG liberation of Idlib Province.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-looses-artillery-fire-turkish-forces-south-aleppo-casualties-reported/

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-liberates-4-villages-from-isis-in-northeastern-hama-map/

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/nikki-haley-russia-syria-chemical-weapons-390811

Will Christopher Steele Be Charged in the UK as a Spy? by Publius Tacitus [UPDATE]

Do you want to know why the FBI continued to insist that the Nunes' memo not be declassified and released to the public? The answer is right there on page 2, (see 1b) in the discussion about what was excluded from the application to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court:

The application does not mention Steele was ultimately working on behalf of-and paid by-the DNC and Clinton campaign, or that the FBI had separately authorized payment to Steele for the same information.

I believe that the part in bold is what the FBI wanted out of the memo because it exposes the uncomfortable fact that Christopher Steele was (and had been for some time) a paid asset of the FBI. That is huge news. In other words, Steele was not a mere consultant or sub-contractor for the FBI. He was being paid to provide information/intelligence to the FBI. There are two classes of FBI "informants." One is serving as a "criminal informant" and the other is as an "intelligence asset." Information from "criminal informants" can be used in a U.S. judicial proceeding and the informant called as a witness. Getting money under that circumstance can be problematic because the source's credibility can be impeached by defense counsel, who can argue that the testimony is purloined.

You do not have to worry about that with an "intelligence asset." In that case the priority is protecting the identity of the source. The fact that Steele had been on the FBI payroll for a while sheds new light on Glen Simpson's testimony (which was leaked by Senator Feinstein) to the U.S. Senate. Simpson testified that Steele told him in late September 2016 that the FBI wanted to meet him in Rome to discuss the dossier.  That struck me initially as quite odd. If Steele was just acting as an average "foreign" citizen who was trying to help the FBI then he could easily have met with the Bureau in London. That city hosts the largest number of FBI agents in the world outside of the U.S. But Steele was asked to go meet in Rome. That's what you do when you are meeting an intelligence asset that the Brits do not know about.

That is the problem.

Tomorrow is a big day for Space X.

 

"When SpaceX was competing to fly cargo to the International Space Station, Musk mocked his rival’s rockets. Vying to launch spy satellites, SpaceX sued the US Air Force for a chance to bid on classified launches. Plotting a satellite internet constellation, he promised a network “an order of magnitude” more sophisticated than his competitors. Tomorrow (Feb. 6), his space company will attempt to launch the largest rocket in the world, the Falcon Heavy—and if successful, the rocket entrepreneur could find himself set for collision with a gigantic rocket NASA been building for more than a decade.

SpaceX’s goal since 2002 has been to develop the technology to make humanity a multi-planetary species. The Falcon Heavy is the first vehicle built by Musk’s company with the capability of taking a usefully large scientific robot—or even, in stages, a human exploration mission—beyond earth orbit, and to another astronomical body."  Qurtz

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Tomorrow, Musk will try to put his red roadster into Mars orbit.  "Up, up and away!"  "Fly me to the moon!"  Pick your tune.  I had just arrived in Frankfurt in 1969 when the first moon landing occurred.  I remember that the local newspaper had a headline the next day that read "Jetzt der mann in der mond ist ein Ami," or something like that.  pl 

https://qz.com/1196611/spacex-falcon-heavy-can-elon-musk-disrupt-deep-space-with-the-worlds-most-powerful-rocket/

Habakkuk on ‘longtime’ sources:

Steele, Shvets, Levinson, Litvinenko and the ‘Billion Dollar Don.’

In the light of the suggestion in the Nunes memo that Steele was ‘a longtime FBI source’ it seems worth sketching out some background, which may also make it easier to see some possible reasons why he ‘was desperate that Donald Trump not get elected and was passionate about him not being president.’

There is reason to suspect that some former and very likely current employees of the FBI have been colluding with elements in other American and British intelligence agencies, in particular the CIA and MI6,  in support of an extremely ambitious foreign policy agenda for a very long time.  It also seems clear that influential journalists, such as Glenn Simpson was before founding Fusion GPS, along with his wife Mary Jacoby, have been strongly involved in this. 

This agenda has involved hopes for ‘régime change’ in Russia, whether as the result of an oligarchic coup, a popular revolt, or some combination of both.  Also central have been hopes for a further ‘rollback’ of Russia influence in the post-Soviet space, both in areas now independent, such as Ukraine, and also ones still part of the Russian Federation, notably Chechnya.

And, crucially, it involved exploiting the retreat of Russian power from the Middle East for ‘régime change’ projects which it was hoped would provide a definitive solution to the – inherently intractable – security problems of a Jewish settler state in the area.

Important support for these strategies was provided by the ‘StratCom’ network centred around the late Boris Berezovsky, which clearly collaborated closely with MI6.  As was apparent from the witness list at Sir Robert Owen’s Inquiry into the death of Alexander Litvinenko, which produced a report based essentially on a recycling of claims made by the network’s members, key players were on your side of the Atlantic – notably Alex Goldfarb, Yuri Shvets, and Yuri Felshtinsky. 

The question of what links these had, or did not have, with elements in U.S. intelligence agencies is thus a critical one.

In making some sense of it, the fact that one key figure we know to have been involved in this network was missing at the Inquiry – the former FBI agent Robert Levinson, who disappeared on the Iranian island of Kish in March 2007 – is important.

Unfortunately, I only recently came across a book on Levinson published in 2016 by the ‘New York Times’ journalist Barry Meier, which is now hopefully winging its way across the Atlantic.  From the accounts of the book I have seen, such as one by Jeff Stein in ‘Newsweek’, it seems likely that its author did not look at any of the evidence presented at Owen’s Inquiry.

(See http://www.newsweek.com/2016/05/20/what-really-happened-robert-levinson-cia-iran-454803.html .)

 

Roll them up like a window shade ...

"Amid ongoing offensive operations by the Syrian Arab Army and allied paramilitary groups against Islamist militias in the southern countryside of Aleppo province, elite troops have taken control of yet another town as they eye-out a possible advance towards the rebel stronghold of Al-Eis.

Military-affiliated sources report that forces of the Syrian Army’s Republican Guard have seized from armed rebel groups the town of Tal Mamu in the last hour after kicking-off another day off offensive operations in southern Idlib."  AMN

-------------

 IMO the correct move by the Syrians just now is to turn right with their main forces and roll up the jihadis who are now facing east south of Aleppo City.  This should collapse the whole jihadi force west of Khanassar and south of Aleppo City and lead to a rapid liberation of the province.  Screening forces should be left to "cover" Saraqib and the left flank SE of Saraqib.  I have looked at the hill at Al-Eis just north of the town of the same name and it does not seem to be a great obstacle.  It can be heavily bombarded with preparatory aerial fires and then attacked from several directions by mobile forces.

The Turks are there?  This would be a good opportunity to force them to back away.  pl  

 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-boots-islamist-militias-key-town-south-aleppo-elite-troops-eye-strategic-rebel-stronghold/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanking_maneuver

 

 

HARPER: DEMOCRATS THREW THE FIRST PUNCH

Now that the Devin Nunes memo is out in the public—with no redactions—and a counter-memo by Adam Schiff is expected to be released within days, it is a good moment to step back and look at the bigger picture of what has gone wrong with our system and where we are headed as a country.

 First, it has been clear, long before the Nunes memo flap, that a network operating within the U.S. law enforcement and intelligence community had it out for Donald Trump for reasons that had little or nothing to do with alleged Russian ties.  Hardcore Obama-Clinton loyalists at the top of the FBI, the CIA, the ODNI and the DOJ abused their positions in a flagrant partisan effort to prevent Donald Trump’s election.  After he won the presidency, they continued in their efforts to deny him the job, deluding themselves that they could forestall the inauguration by claiming that Trump’s victory was solely the result of Russian interference, and by extension, that Trump was a blackmailed dupe of Moscow and Putin.

Post-Nunes memo claims by the Borg media that it was the George Papadopoulos comments to an Australian diplomat that led to the FISA Court surveillance request—not the Steele MI6 memos—are flagrantly phony.  The Steele memos were passed to the FBI, as well as to Fusion GPS from the outset.  The references to Carter Page appeared in Steele memos months before the FISA Court applications, and before the alleged Peter Strzok probe of Page began in late July 2016 (Page’s name came up in the July 19, 2016 Steele memo and the allegations of Russian possession of damaging material on Hillary Clinton were in the first Steele memo, dated June 20, 2016).

It is one thing for people in government service to have political views and biases, it is another thing for those biases to infect the workings of our law enforcement and intelligence agencies.  Likewise for the House Select Committee on Intelligence, which had been one of the last bastions of non-partisan work on Capitol Hill (the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence appears to have preserved some semblance of bipartisan collaboration).  That above-politics commitment has been trashed and it may never be restored.  And it began with Adam Schiff, who seems to have spent half his time on CNN and MSNBC since the Trump election.

While the entire Mueller probe may have been the result of the fruit of a poison tree (the salacious Steele allegations, which even the FBI admitted were never corroborated), I doubt that the Mueller probe will be shut down before completion.  Mueller moved quickly to dismiss Strzok and Page once the amorous emails were turned over to him in July 2017 and somewhat insulated himself from their bile.

 If there was credible evidence of Russian attempts to interfere in the 2016 elections—outside of the toxic claims in the Steele dossier—that is a fair subject for counterintelligence investigation.  But it is becoming more and more clear that the inclusion of President Trump in the Mueller probe derived almost 100 percent from the Steele product.  FBI Director James Comey read the documents and was reportedly so horrified that he threw himself fully into the scheme—along with Obama partisans John Brennan and James Clapper—to stop Donald Trump from taking office.

That, IMHO, is criminal.  Comey, Brennan and Clapper are legitimate targets for Federal investigation.  Only by getting to the bottom of the abuse of the awesome powers of the Federal law enforcement and intelligence services can we hope to ever restore credibility and non-partisanship, two hallmarks of a genuine republic. 

Thoughts on the Nunes Memo - TTG

My first reaction to reading the much ballyhooed Nunes memo was to wonder why the DOJ and FBI fought so vociferously to prevent its release. It didn’t give a lot of what I would consider worthy of a TOP SECRET classification nor did it reveal any FBI transgressions a hundred times worse than Watergate as promised. What it did reveal is the fact that a FISA warrant was granted on 21 October 2016 targeting Carter Page and that it was subsequently renewed three times. 

Typically the DOJ and FBI offer only a Glomar response (neither confirm nor deny) to any inquiry about FISA warrants. I believe this is why they fought the release of this memo. It sets the precedent that the Government acknowledges the issuance of a specific FISA warrant. This will have consequences beyond the Mueller investigation. 

One consequence has already happened. Washington DC national security attorney Mark Zaid and his James Madison Project have had a long standing FOIA lawsuit in Federal Court seeking disclosure of any FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign. The consistent Government position has been a Glomar response. Earlier today Zaid put in a filing in this case taking into account the President’s unprecedented action to declassify the existence of this FISA warrant. The Court’s response was pretty damned quick. This was just tweeted. “Judge Mehta has just ordered DOJ to notify the court by February 14th whether the Nunes Memo requires the reversal of its Glomar Response. If DOJ says it does not, Judge Mehta wants an explanation from DOJ.” 

So, we might all get to see the full, albeit redacted, FISA warrants including the Carter Page one. However, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for those FISA warrants to appear anytime soon. Mark Zaid also got word today that his FOIA lawsuit to get the Comey memos was denied because releasing those memos could effect an open investigation… the Mueller investigation. Perhaps we’ll see all the warrants and memos once the investigation concludes… or is stopped in its tracks.

Unless Trump uses this Nunes memo in a “go for broke” effort to fire all the top DOJ and FBI folks and replace them with new folks who have pledged their personal loyalty to Trump, I don’t see this memo having a tremendous effect on the Mueller investigation. By the memo’s own admission the FBI investigation began in July 2016 with information surrounding Papadopoulis, probably from Australia. 

Prior to this FBI investigation, an interagency working group was established in April 2016  from the FBI, CIA, NSA, DOJ, the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and representatives of the DNI to begin an inquiry into the movement of Russian money into the US to pay hackers and influence the election. This action was taken based on info received from the Estonian IS concerning Trump associates meeting RIS operatives in Europe and a recording indicating the Russian government was planning to funnel funds aimed at influencing the US election. GCHQ became aware in late 2015 of suspicious “interactions” between figures connected to Trump and known or suspected Russia. This intelligence was passed to the US as part of a routine exchange of information. Germany, Poland and possibly the French DGSE also passed on SIGINT.

The existence of neither of these investigations was leaked to the press before the 2016 election. I would think the vast Borg conspiracy would have done this as a vital part of their soft coup. It would have been effective. Instead, they publicly announced the reopening of the Clinton email investigation a week before the election. Is that any way to run a secret society?

The Mueller investigation is not a Borg conspiracy or a leftist conspiracy or a witch hunt. It is a federal counterintelligence and criminal investigation. I have no doubt there have been and will be instances of investigatorial and prosecutorial arrogance, overreach and even errors when this is all over. Whether there will be serious indictments that will permanently hobble or even destroy the Trump presidency is unknown. He may come out of this exonerated and stronger than ever. Only a thorough investigation, with proper oversight, will tell. 

TTG

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4365715/Notice-Foia.pdf

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article127231799.html

The FBI and CIA Failed Coup Against Trump Unravels by Publius Tacitus

Based on the memo released today by the House Intelligence Committee (read it here), current and former members of the FBI and the Department of Justice who signed off on applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court will likely face contempt of court charges. Who? James Comey, Andy McCabe, Sally Yates, Dana Boente and Rob Rosenstein. The effectively lied to a Federal judge. That is not only stupid but illegal.

Here are the critical points from the Nunes memo that you should commit to memory.:

• The Steele Dossier played a critical role in obtaining approval from the FISA court to carry out surveillance of Carter Page according to former FBI Deputy Director Andy McCabe.
• Christopher Steele was getting paid by the DNC and the FBI for the same information.
• No one at either the FBI nor the DOJ disclosed to the court that the Steele dossier was paid for by an opposition political campaign.
• The first FISA warrant was obtained on 21 October 2016 based on a story written by Michael Isikoff for Yahoo News based on information he received directly from Christopher Steele--THE FBI DID NOT DISCLOSE IN THE FISA APPLICATION THAT STEELE WAS THE ORIGINAL SOURCE OF THE INFORMATION.
• Christopher Steele was a long standing FBI "source" but was terminated as a source after telling Mother Jones reporter David Corn that he had a relationship with the FBI.
• The FBI signers of the FISA applications/renewals were James Comey and Andy McCabe.
• The DOJ signers of the FISA applications/renewals were Sally Yates, Dana Boente and Rod Rosenstein 
• Even after Steele was terminated by the FBI, he remained in contact with Deputy Attorney General Bruce Our, whose wife worked for FUSION GPS and was involved with the Steele dossier. 

If you go back and read carefully what Isikoff reported in September 2016 it appears that the CIA and the DNI (as well as the FBI) are implicated in spreading the disinformation about Trump and Russia. Isikoff wrote: 

 

The House Intel Committee Memo and the White House Letter

By Robert Willmann

Here are the White House letter about the memorandum of 18 January 2018 from the U.S. House Intelligence Committee and the memo itself that were released today. 

White House Counsel Donald McGahn II dances around the delicate and not entirely clear issue of exactly what the legal grounds are for making information classified and unclassified and who in the federal government can do it.  He opts for a common idea in favor of the executive branch and mentions executive order 13526, which I noted in a comment the other day.  

He and President Trump have made it easy for everyone by saying, "... the President has authorized the declassification of the Memorandum".

https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/memo_and_white_house_letter.pdf

https://intelligence.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=856

SIGAR Report Claims US Withholding Critical Information by The Virginian

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) was established to promote greater accountability of the taxpayer's dollars being spent in Afghanistan.  That they are saying the military is keeping information from the public that would illustrate the resurgence of Taliban (and other) insurgent elements deserves attention. Afghanistan's fate will not be determined by the US / West.

**********

A new report released on Monday states the US military is keeping information from the public that gauges the war in Afghanistan and gains made by insurgents. 

The US Defense Department has restricted data on population figures and on what areas are held by either government or insurgents, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said in a report released on Tuesday. 

“The number of districts controlled or influenced by the Afghan government had been one of the last remaining publicly available indicators for members of Congress ... and for the American public of how the 16-year-long US effort to secure Afghanistan is faring,” John Sopko, the special inspector general, said in the report.

This however is the first time that SIGAR has been instructed not to release unclassified information in one of its quarterly reports, Sopko said, adding that the information will instead be included in an annex unavailable to the public. 

The report stated that SIGAR was not given any justification for the new restrictions. 

The SIGAR report stated that the “worrisome development” follows an increase of insurgent control or influence in Afghanistan.

As such, the non-disclosure of information was of particular concern, SIGAR reported. 

It also comes after several other measures for gauging the development and strength of Afghanistan’s security forces were blocked or restricted in the fall. Among them were casualty and attrition rates.

Click here for full report https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2018-01-30qr.pdf#page=60

Moon Over Parador .....A true story beyond the fabeled creations of Hollywood...... by Fred

A super-moon for a super speech by the new leader of a great country that doesn't have a tin-pot dictator and an out of control secret police running the place. Here in this storied land when electing our new leaders we citizens know we're Stronger Together. And our true leaders look stunning in white. 

Yes, stronger together. Like when we have record employment for our most downtrodden citizens. That joyous news will make every politician stand and cheer.

Well, you must understand that sometimes our politicians have worked so hard to help their fellow citizens that the best they can do is Stand Sit to honor their fellow citizens because they know whose lives really matter.  

Now some foreign readers might have heard that there is some kind of a scandal involving the most recent election of our great leader. Rest assured that here in this fabeled land of milk and honey and truth and justice there's only one way to discover the truth. A fair and impartial investigation. Like we have here:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/30/justice-department-advised-fbi-against-clinton-email-letter/

“FBI investigators in the Anthony Weiner sexting probe knew for weeks about the existence of newly discovered emails potentially related to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private email…”

A master stroke is possible in Idlib.

 

IMO the SAA and friends are well past the culminating point of their drive into Idlib Province and vulnerable to a major reverse if things do not continue to go well, but fortune often favors the brave ...  A reverse could take the form of a counter-attack against the now very long "roots" (supply lines) of the spearheads fighting NW of Abu Duhur especially in the context of protracted fighting at rapidly stiffening defenses around the crossroads at Saraqib when SAA reaches that location. 

But, pilgrims, fortune DOES favor the brave and a crushing defeat of HTS and collapse of jihadi resistance in the province could be accomplished if:

1.  The SAA advances to Saraqib and then engages just sufficiently to fix the defending jihadi forces in position.

2.  The SAA does not immediately divert scarce forces to the relief of the two besieged Shia villages just north of Idlib City.  These places will be uncovered and will fall to government forces of their own weight if the major effort in Idlib Province is successful.

3.  The main effort should now be made by a  Tiger Force led column that wheels to the right to roll up jihadi forces from south to the north as they currently face government forces to the south of Aleppo City.  This movement would turn jihadi forces out of their positions and enable a general government advance into Idlib Province from existing positions in Aleppo Province south of Aleppo City.  pl  

https://southfront.org/map-update-military-situation-in-eastern-idlib-and-southern-aleppo/