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06 February 2018

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Jony Kanuck

Col,

re: TSK; By experienced I do mean against Kurds. From what I'm seeing of TSK plans it's heavy on artillery & elite troops. So yeah, TSK could shell it's way into Afrin City, wrecking it, & then burn up a lot of elite troops & get lots of bad publicity. So I don't think it will happen; Erdo needs an 'affordable' victory.

different clue

Barbara Ann,

( reply to comment 4)

I had occasion once years ago to perceive and describe to someone a similar comparison.

I can't remember what the particular jihadi suicide attack was, but I remember someone saying that we certainly can't doubt those jihadis' bravery. I said yes we could. I offered the example of the Soviet fire fighters who rushed in to help contain the fire and smoke at the burning melted-down Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Assuming they believed in Soviet Socialist atheism, they knowingly accepted the certainty of certain death by radiation exposure within hours or days even though they believed they had no heaven to go to and no further turn of life to re-incarnate into. Whereas the jihadis believed they would go straight to the best heaven there is and stay there forever after a brief painless death in a super explosion. Assuming they really believed in that heaven-after-murder outcome, their action required zero bravery of any sort. They had merely done a cynical cost-benefit analysis, trading a shorter life span here on earth for living in heaven forever. Without even having to suffer any pain to get there.

Christian Chuba

Comparing search and rescue scenarios of Major Filipov and U.S. pilots in the South Pacific is a bit apples and oranges. I have not seen any timeline but it looks like the Russian pilot was swarmed pretty fast.

The Russians were able to extract their first pilot that was shot down by the Turkish F16 and the other pilot was shot while he was still in the air. They even had a backup helicopter when the first one was shot down. That seemed like a pretty impressive recovery.

It seems like we would need to know how much time there was before the bad guys reached the pilot to understand their most recent performance.

Anna

Curiousier and curiousier: “US claims aerial attack on Syrian 'pro-regime' forces” http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/breaking-us-claims-aerial-attack-on.html
“The US's Central Command (Centcom) has just released an official statement, claiming that it has conducted an aerial attack on what it terms 'Syrian pro-regime' forces, about eight miles east of the Euphrates river. … It is illegal to fund or control a side in a civil war, which is what the US claims it is doing.”
---In other words, Alice in a Wonderland of the complete rejection of international law by the US. What about dignity?

Ishmael Zechariah

Colonel,
After Korea, TSK did a small op in Cyprus. Was useful. Dealing w/ the kurdish insurgency was also quite useful in evaluating some doctrines. Several types of special forces as well as CAS and tac. air were fielded. The latest smashing of the pkk build-up within civilian areas was a useful exercise as well.
Ishmael Zechariah

turcopolier

Christian Chuba

I stand by my criticism. i was referring to SEA not the Pacific War. In SEA the SAR people were very aggressive. The Skyraiders or armed helicopters would actively fight the enemy on the ground to protect a downed pilot. Perhaps he landed too close to the enemy for that to be possible but was Russian SAR immediately available? pl

William Fitzgerald

Pat Lang,

An army captain just returned from VN told me "never be on the gun-target line of 175s". I recall that he was genuinely spooked.

WPFIII

DianaLC

Thank you, PT, as usual.

It has appeared to me, a nobody, that the British are more to be distrusted in this than the Russians. The Russians are more open about their actions in some ways than the British. I envision Putin laughing every night for getting all the credit for our turmoil when, perhaps, someone else should have it.

The madness of King George III must be somehow rooted in many of the British genetic codes.

Is Trump now an Oliver Cromwell? If so, I hope his takeover is more successful than Cromwell's.

I'm sorry for the not very good analogy. I'm just becoming more and more depressed by the behavior of our "allies" and by the seeming inability of our Congress to and our justice system to get to the bottom of things and mete out appropriate punishment.

John_Frank

A short time ago Минобороны России @mod_russia posted https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/961611067918036993

In Voronezh, hundreds of people said farewell to Roman Filipov, Hero of Russia fallen in #Syria. Funeral ceremony was attended by Nikolai Pankov, Deputy Defence Minister, and Colonel General Sergei Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of Aerospace Forces http://s.mil.ru/2BKb3c9 pic.twitter.com/5i7VWQ5b8l

turcopolier

William Fitzgerald

He was quite right. The trajectory was so flat and the ranges could be so long that a long ellipse described the possible beaten zone for impacts. if you were on the gun-target line and anywhere near the target a possible catastrophic short impact was very possible. pl

JPB

Syriac Christian militia from eastern Syria's Hasakah Province have also sent fighters to Afrin. The MFS or Syriac Military Council are primarily from Hasakah province in northeastern Syria. They have been part of the SDF since its founding in October 2015, and worked with the YPG previous to that in fighting against al-Nusra and ISIS in the Tel Hamis area back in 2013. Last summer and fall the MFS was critical in liberating the Khabour River valley in Hasakah and parts of Deir ez-Zor provinces from ISIS. The Kurds got the credit, but the Syriacs did most of the heavy lifting as the Khabour Valley is much of their homeland. They also fought with the SDF in liberating the ISIS capitol city of Raqqa.

Approximately six percent of the population in the Afrin area are Christian. The city of Afrin has several historical Syriac Aramaic churches and monasteries. It is unclear how many fighters have been sent. Only a handful are seen in the linked pic:

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2018/7-february-fighters-of-syriac-military-council-mfs-reached

https://anfenglish.com/rojava/syriac-military-council-sends-troops-to-afrin-24709

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-assyrian-militia-sends-reinforcements-defend-afrin/

SmoothieX12

in Voronezh, hundreds of people said farewell to Roman Filipov

30 000 +

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5367915/Thousands-attend-funeral-Russian-pilot-killed-Syria.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Arioch The

> I hope Russia improves it Search and Rescue operations


We all would prefer the man survived.
We all prefer better services to worse services.

Still it all is easier said than done.


PL says Rescue missions should be in the wings until pilots came home. This would probably mean that rescue crafts would get worn out pretty fast, and they would run out of fuel fast. Let's see American air carriers, when jets are taking off or landing back - the rescue team is flying around the ship. But when the jets took off and flew away form the deck to the mission, are SAR kind of following them to close distance and minimize arrival time?


Fillipov's wingman was circling around giving covering fire while he could. Frankly, Syria is not that vast. That would give enough time for other teams to man their machines and take them off. If it was possible.

25.11.2015 another Russian jet was taken down. SAR helicopter was dispatched to get him, was waited for by the enemy, was ambushed and downed too.

Or more mundane examples, sometimes urban people call emergency medic car just to rob them of drugs, or even call police patrols to ambush and rob them of guns.

To close it, from what was told yet, it seems RuAF had enough time to dispatch more support or extraction team, until the wingman flew home. Hence it seems RuAF had no capability to do it, either had no ready to fly crafts (doubtful) or were sure any landing SAR mission there would be ambushed and murdered by the overwhelming locally enemy.

Arioch The

> devising replacement batteries

do MANPADs have them ? I recall Soviet MANPADS did not.

instead they had liquid nitrogen flask.
you stick it in, and it does two things, for about 2 minutes, cooling down heading radar grid and - via a small turbine - generating power for the radar and aiming automation.

if you are not fast enough to lock in and shoot, you have to initiate and attach another flask, etc.

cause without chilling the radar the missile could not accurately lock in anyway, be computer powered or not, so there would be just no reason for a separate long-term battery.

turcopolier

Arioch, The

You obviously are a Cheap Charlie who values engine wear out and maintenance over men's lives. We include aerial re-fueling in the SAR package. pl

JPB

Aeioch -

I assume you mean cooling for the Infrared seeker, not radar.

The early generation models SA-7, -7A, and -7B had uncooled Infrared seekers so did not need the nitrogen. The batteries were thermal giving them a long shelf life. But once activated they only gave 30 to 40 seconds of power. So untrained jihadi operators most of the time used them up before pulling the trigger. Many replacements were tried including car batteries, motorcycle batteries, and various jury-rigged systems. The best seem to be made with a series rechargeable laptop batteries.

http://armamentresearch.com/improvised-manpads-batteries-employed-in-syria/

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/26/world/middleeast/a-syrian-rebel-advance-off-the-battlefield-a-longer-lasting-rechargeable-battery-for-the-sa-7b-a-shoulder-fired-missile-system.html?_r=0

But you are right that the newer generation Russian SA-14 through the SA-24 require cooling which is normally done with pressurized nitrogen. But a battery is also needed. And even if they had newer models that required cooling, finding liquid nitrogen should not be a tough search. It is used in doctor' offices and in hospitals, in the oil industry, in food storage & transport, my 13 year old granddaughter made ice cream with it in a junior high school chemistry class.

English Outsider


"The madness of King George III must be somehow rooted in many of the British genetic codes,"

If I recollect accurately the King's medical attendants were loopier than he was. But once you start explaining things by genes you're a dead man walking anyway when it comes to rational argument. Genes are just part of the mix and culture and circumstances account for the most of it.

The KGB got up to some really nasty tricks in the cold war era. Some of our lot get up to bad stuff now. Are you accounting for this by asserting the two Intelligence Communities interbred?

Ishmael Zechariah

TTG, SST;
The "bogged down" TSK has been moving incrementally, taking some hits, and capturing quite a few regions w/ very interesting "defensive" structures.

We are wondering about the planners, designers, and the bank-rollers, of these fortifications. These contain a lot of materiel; their provenance is now being investigated.

Ishmael Zechariah

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