A Game Changer

 

"Additionally to the downed F-16I of the Israeli Air Force, at least one Israeli F-15 warplane wad damaged by a Syrian missile and was forced to make an emergency landing on February 10, the Al Arabiya TV network reported citing own sources.

According to unconfirmed report, in total 3 Israeli warplanes were damaged additionally to the F-16 which was downed by the Syrian forces earlier on February 10.

If these reports are at least partly confirmed this will be one of the biggest Israeli failures in the recent time."  SF

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Israeli collective psychology is based on an assumed military and cultural superiority to the Arab states surrounding them.  For them to lose an F-16 to the Syrian Air Defenses as well as to suffer damage to several F-15s is an unacceptable challenge to their self image and to the intimidating effect that they seek.

For the Israelis this defiance of their usual air supremacy requires massive retaliation.  This is ongoing.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system 

https://southfront.org/at-least-one-israeli-f-15-was-damaged-additionally-to-downed-f-16i-in-recent-encounter-with-syrian-forces-media/

Comments

[Christian Chuba]

"The syrians have had s200 for a long time. Why did they get lucky this time?"

Harry, this was the first raid in a very, very, long time where the Israelis actually entered into Syrian air space. They usually drop their bombs over Lebanese territory. In this case, it looks like they went deep into Syria giving the Syrians a decent amount of time to react. The S200 is old but it's a high fragmentation device which might explain how it damaged aircraft without bringing it down right away.

The Iranians just used a surveillance drone, Netanyahu went into his usual hysterics talking about Iran's 'attack' on Israel, blah-blah-blah and the stooges on FOX ate it up. They say they were monitoring ISIS on the Syrian side of the Golan but even if they were surveilling the Israelis so what, I would. The Israelis have been threatening to invade their allies in S. Lebanon for months so why wouldn't they want to see if there is evidence of a military staging consistent with an offensive.

[The Twisted Genius]

I saw this a few days ago on the English language Lebanese Naharnet site. This news must feel like another big green weenie slowly piercing the IDF’s arse. I think the endgame is an integrated Syrian-Lebanese defense network under Russian tutelage... a nightmare for Tel Aviv.

“Lebanon and Russia are preparing to sign a military cooperation treaty that involves a “comprehensive framework for coordination” and “joint activities” between the armies of the two countries, media reports said.
An official Russian government website for documents and information has published a government decree authorizing the Russian Defense Ministry to conduct “necessary talks with the relevant Lebanese authorities to draft a final format of the treaty.”
According to the decree, the treaty involves “exchanging information on defense means and enhancing international security capabilities; activating anti-terror cooperation; improving joint cooperation in the fields of cadre training, military exercises and armed forces building; exchanging IT expertise; and establishing mechanisms for cooperation between the two countries' armies in the various military fields.”

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/241895-lebanon-russia-to-sign-military-cooperation-treaty

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

"How long is Trump going to put up with this evident bullshit?"

With the histrionics of Fox and Friends, the inevitable tears of Ivanka and the whisperings of Jared in his ear, Trump will be salivating at this evident bullshit. This will be a far better distraction than another memo from Nunes.

[turcopolier]

TTG

So, you are convinced that Trump is guilty of whatever it is that Mark Warner, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Nance Pelosi, Adam Schiff et al are selling and should be removed from office? What is it exactly that he is guilty of other than poor taste, and a bully boy, Joe Sixpack phony manner? pl

[turcopolier]

Peter in Totonto

It was in several accounts. I don't care what system they used. Believe what you please. pl

[Tel]

Seems like Israel has volunteered to do Russia's sales demo for them.

With the word out that Russian gear can keep your skies clear of F-15 / F-16 incursion, Putin's export department will be getting a lot of interested parties.

Not that I'm a manufacturing expert, but a bunch of aluminium tubes on the back of a big truck must be reasonably easy to build, and Russia seems remarkably capable with the phased array radars these days, and rapidly improving their software capability. They need all the foreign exchange they can get, living under sanctions ain't easy. I would expect to see a whole lot of these missile defense systems shipping out the door in the next few years.

Game changer indeed, I'd say the whole concept of imposing air superiority is about to need a serious rethink.

"According to reports I posted in a previous thread, I believe the AA systems used were reported as S-200, not the more advanced S-400.

There are people claiming to be suspicious of the S-200 claim, since Syria has never hit any Israeli jets before. They think this was a Russian S-400 which IIRC the Syrians do not directly operate."

Don't underestimate the potential of a relatively cheap control system upgrade for older equipment. Throwing pipe in the air is very easy to do, but hitting something is another matter again. Back in the bad old days of WWII, Korea, Vietnam, it was about how much explosive you can drop to blow the shit out of everything. These days, it's about using a little bit of explosive and putting it in the right place at the right time. The winner will be whoever designs the systems with quickest response and best accuracy.

[SmoothieX12]

Perhaps they were Iranian S-300's.

No, IDF itself gave confirmation that Syrian S-200 and Buk were involved.

https://ria.ru/syria/20180210/1514374124.html

In Russian.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

No, I am not convinced of Trump's guilt in any collusion-related accusations. I don't see it as being in his nature to wittingly go along with anything like that. But he desperately wants the Mueller investigation to go away. I am convinced that Trump is sufficiently bellicose towards Iran and Hezbollah and simpatico with his fellow tough-talker Natanyahu to go along with a wider war in the ME. Mattis and Kelly are downplaying the possibility that any of this will lead to a confrontation with Russia. That's the only thing that could put a brake on Trump's enthusiasm for taking on Israel's enemies. The idea of being a war President and the ensuing bump in popularity would appeal to him.

[Tel]

"I said it many times, I'll repeat it again--Israel's worst nightmare is a competent, largely secular, well-armed Arab military at her borders."

You forgot to mention "well equipped", point is there's no one in Syria capable of designing and building such systems... yes they can operate them, but they need a supplier.

In the short term Russia remains loyal to their long term agreements with the Assad family, and certainly Assad has no choice but to remain loyal to Russia (and useful to Russia as well). In the longer term China always clones technology and they will no doubt be bringing their own version to market at some stage... so there will be at least two suppliers.

[David E. Solomon]

Stupidity.....

Of course he is not alone, just more obvious a moron than the others.

Simply my opinion.

[SmoothieX12]

to their Nebo-M stations,

I am not sure there are any Nebo-M in Syria. I know there is one in Crimea and Iran, allegedly, has one system. What Russia has there in terms of cohesive radar coverage (field) does not require Nebo-M. S-400 at Khmeimim alone covers much of Israel, plus there are other space and AWACS (A-50) assets employed for early warning and real time situational awareness. Plus, there are ships off the shore which provide additional coverage.

[Larry Kart]

Wasn't that post about the S125 being legislated against in Israel as anti-semitic an attempt at satire?

[turcopolier]

David E. Solomon

My comment was not directed at you, but, what evidence is there of Trump's supposed stupidity? He doesn't agree with you? pl

[turcopolier]

Larry Kart

Yes, I should have realized that but my animus for Bibi is as blinding as TDS is for others. pl

[turcopolier]

All OK I am persuaded that the S-400 was not involved. pl

[SmoothieX12]

My point was not in S-400, my point was that it was Syrian, not Russian, response. It is a good chance, though, that early warning and targeting was provided by Russian forces but this is a grey zone.

[FkDahl]

Smoothie, I see no way for S-400 radar to cover Israel at lower altitude :it may be a fantastic system but there is no way it can see through mountains. Not coincidentally I just saw a picture posted of two SAA soliders with MANPADS

[SmoothieX12]

China always clones technology

Their clones are not as good as originals, to put it mildly, that is why China remains even today a major buyer of Russian technology, as recent deliveries of 2.5 billion worth of SU-35 and this very S-400, plus other goodies, demonstrated. Quality, especially in aerospace, will remain Chinese weakness for a while.

[SmoothieX12]

Smoothie, I see no way for S-400 radar to cover Israel at lower altitude :it may be a fantastic system but there is no way it can see through mountains.

Read attentively the list of assets I mentioned. The formula of radio-horizon is widely available:

http://www.calculatoredge.com/electronics/lineofsight.htm

Planes DO NOT fly through the mountains, they have to fly above them and that makes their elevation larger than that of he mountain. Obviously, using crevices helps and is standard tactical procedure for most advanced air forces, but radar coverage involves both passive, active, space and other optronic means are there to monitor.In simpler language--any aircraft takes off in Israel, it becomes known and is tracked. If A-50 is in the air, it doesn't matter altogether.

[Willybilly]

Correct, it was a SAM5 Gammon.

[Peter AU]

Yet in other tech areas China are world leaders. Hypersonic glide missiles and quantum communications to name two. In cloning and copying, China are building a huge scientific database that combined with their emphasis on maths and science education will soon bear fruit.

[confusedponderer]

Tyler,
"Russia didn't take the loss of that Su-24 lightly."

And why should they? They probably also don't take the murder of their ambassador to Turkey by some jihadi/ex-cop lightly.

https://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/19/europe/turkey-russian-ambassador-shot/index.html

Anyway, the Russians likely told Israel, calmly, "Look, don't do it ever again, and stop this air space violations of Syria and this and that also".

Alas, the Israelis didn't listen. It fits is my old hunch about Russia: You kid them once, the second time they consider it negligent and the third time they'll consider it full intent and will kick back hard.

So a good advise would likely be to to not play such power games with Russians. Sooner rather than later it'll hurt.

The latter part, the need to have to accept limits of the own power and the loss of impunity, is what likely hurts Israel most - in their ego - more than the loss of that aircraft (which is just 'damaged property').

[Tel]

"Their clones are not as good as originals, to put it mildly."

I agree, but the Chinese have enormous human resources and great determination so there's nothing stopping them closing that gap. Also, it's easier to play technological catch-up than it is to break new ground, but only one generation ago they were pushing mud around on socialist collective farms and mostly starving in the process ... so give them a bit of breathing room.

Remember the time when the Japanese had a reputation for producing cheap transistor junk? Not so long ago but they got better and now they produce some of the best electronic gear in the world.

Then there were the Koreans, came along after the Japanese, but now they lead the world in mobile phones and they are producing legitimate licensed F-16 clones, and also their own "5th generation" fighter aircraft (which just happens to look a lot like an F-22, but then again most of the so called "5th generation" fighters around the world look a lot like an F-22, hmmm).

[Karel]

What are the Beirut Leaks? Was there something I missed?

The IDF’s large parachute drill and Beirut’s leaks to various media outlets about its Iranian-financed underground rocket factories both create a feeling that there is serious potential for escalation along the Blue Line.

Do you have a little time at hand to dig below the surface?

https://www.facebook.com/pg/Beirut-LEAKS-1181378775236078/about/?ref=page_internal

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-war-clouds-gather-northern-storm-looks-more-foreboding/

[Harry]

From Elijah Magnier's blog

"A Commander of the allied forces in Syria revealed to me that allied forces led by the Syrian Army Command agreed to ambush the Israeli Air Force, putting the Syrian air defence on high alert, ready to fire. Then, a drone was sent to the Syrian-Israeli borders, violating Israeli air space to attract an Israeli response. As expected, Israel sent its F-16 to down the drone and was hit on the border. According to the source, it is impossible for an F-16 to be hit over the Sukhna (the Israeli version) – clearly a lie according to the source – and was in fact downed near Kiryat Ata, east of Haifa, over 150 km away from al-Sukhna. This debunks the Israeli story as fake, an attempt to camouflage the fact that the Israeli jet was hit in Israeli air space, a direct challenge to Israel’s authority and a clear message to say: “we can shoot you down over your own air space if you violate ours”, said the source.

“If a SAM-5 missile hit the F-16, it would explode in the air and nothing would remain of it. It was hit with a smaller but more modern and precise missile, capable of manoeuvring like the F-16s”, confirmed the source, who refused to give further information."