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10 February 2018

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Arioch The

> sanctions have forced Russia to the side of China.

like tens years ago, but still no one noticed.

> Mongolia was the most important buffer for Siberia

LOL. Allmighty Mongolia contained Chinese invasion just like Ukraine contains Russian one today.

May you open a map and see China and Russia do share borderline west and east form Mongolia? Mongolia is no buffer in no military sense.

Arioch The

> that China’s continuing military weakness is an obstacle to a China-Russia alliance

....and Russian economic weakness.

It renders Sino-Russian alliance totally impossible, or does it?

December 2014: www.informationclearinghouse.info/article40548.htm
Few years before it: enigmachronicle.com/2013/06/beijing-2008-a-painting-by-liu-yi

Arioch The

you have to remember though, China bought off technologies that remained in Ukraine: Antonov and Motor-Sich.

While Antonov can hardly add anything of break-through value to China, reliability of helicopter/jet engines is what China is currently bad at, and the said Motor-Sich was the primary engine supplier of RuAF before 2013.

So in this particular area of military jet engines I expect China to catch-up (at least mostly catch up) in next 3 years at max.

Jony Kanuck

SmoothieX12,

The twitter feed I followed had many 'players', some of who checked Is. sources - who agree that what got the F16 was a salvo of 5-8 missiles.

The Arab intention to attack the Golan Hts is mostly from Magnier. I think Is. ground forces are not very good anymore but I think they will be able to hold a line against the arabs. That said, positional warfare is an Israeli nightmare: Body bags by the gross. At the same time Hezbollah will probably be rocketing Tel Aviv. Israel will be in an existential crisis. A lot of Israelis will be deciding that a trip to New York would be nice. I fear though, that if Israel starts to lose, it will reach for a nuke.

SmoothieX12

...and Russian economic weakness.

Chinese definition of "weakness" is very much along the same lines as the, totally discredited in the last 4 years, Wall Street definition of economic "strengths" and "weaknesses"--that is mostly monetarist virtual economy. It is a wrong view. Per enclosed technological cycles and GDP structure in key sectors which Joseph Nye (in Huntington's seminal work) correctly identifies--China is a newcomer and she is not Japan. You can read some of my pieces at UNZ precisely on this issue:

https://www.unz.com/article/the-russo-chinese-alliance-explained/

and here:

https://www.unz.com/article/the-russo-chinese-alliance-revisited/

There are some fields where I agree with Saker, Russo-Chinese economic interplay is not one of them. The interplay, especially geopolitically, between China and Russia is extremely complex precisely for the reasons of China's very serious military-technological deficiencies. Then, of course, there is operational and strategic factor here. People also continuously forget that Chinese OBOR is not a charity, far from it. Russia is keenly aware of that, the same as she is aware of China's desire to become the US 2.0--this is not going to seat well with Russians. The trade between Russia and China will continue to grow and it is a natural process but without resolution in the American geopolitical stance and clarity on the scale of US ongoing weakening it is very difficult to discuss any double-helix concepts. In other words, the so called Alliance is largely situational and both Putin and Lavrov made it patently clear that Russia is primarily Christian White European civilization first, the rest follows.

SmoothieX12

and the said Motor-Sich was the primary engine supplier of RuAF before 2013.

Hm, and what happened to Saturn? Klimov?

So in this particular area of military jet engines I expect China to catch-up (at least mostly catch up) in next 3 years at max.

Not gonna happen. Chinese jet-engines problems are deep and several "deadlines" for WS-20 have been missed already. In the end, even for CR-929 it will be PD-35. The purchase of SU-35s was inspired primarily because of engine and, to a lesser degree, Irbis radar and avionics. When will China reach world-class engines is a question? At some point she should but there are other indicators, not just aerospace, which testify to a serious struggle Chinese face whenever dealing with high-end technology-- a more manifest example is PLAN's submarine force, it is nowhere near the same in Russia or the United States.

SmoothieX12

The Arab intention to attack the Golan Hts is mostly from Magnier

This sounds as very typical local bravado, of course.

I think Is. ground forces are not very good anymore but I think they will be able to hold a line against the arabs.

That is my estimate too.

That said, positional warfare is an Israeli nightmare: Body bags by the gross. At the same time Hezbollah will probably be rocketing Tel Aviv. Israel will be in an existential crisis.

Most likely but I don't see them doing this:

I fear though, that if Israel starts to lose, it will reach for a nuke.

And here where this whole thing becomes interesting since, unlike S-300 at Tartus, which is still very capable system, S-400 at Khmeimim and the other S-400, in Masyaf, are specifically anti-missile complexes capable of intercepting just about any type of ballistic missile not only on terminal but on the boost and, probably, initial post-boost phase and 40N6 is now operational. This missile is also fully beyond-horizon capable. So, I think Putin and Bibi discussed this issue during their numerous friendly meetings. I guess it was clearly stated to Israel that any use of nukes is verboten.

SmoothieX12

Ukraine is more important than Siberia.

Evidently your knowledge of Russia and her Siberia and Far East (I lived and served there) originate in the same "quality" sources as any in Newsweek or NYT.

Are you aware that all the vegetables for cities like Kransoyarsk are grown by Chinese farmers in Siberia? If you don´t know about that it is not surprising. It doesn´t make the national news for good reason. The authorities are doing their best to keep people quiet.

Yes, I even know the GULAG camp where those who do not want to "keep quiet" are sent;)) Here is one source for you:

https://www.svoboda.org/a/28626974.html

But I can tell you even more--Chinese diaspora in Russia is much smaller than, say, Azeri one.

Not to long I am afraid.The Japanese took twenty years to master the most difficult process in civil aviation. That is wing construction. Thanks to greedy CEO´s of Boeing they are now technology leaders.

You know, it is difficult to counter such broad and highly non-knowledgeable statements, since even for B-787 huge part of the wing was developed in Boeing's Moscow engineering office--the largest Boeing establishment abroad. I will reiterate--there could be NO sensible parallels drawn between Japanese and Chinese. If you want to see the best wings in the world--take a look at SU-35 or SU-57 and see what they can do. I also am not aware of Japan producing in commercial aviation anything comparable to B-737, 787 or A-320 or 330. What Japan makes is Mitsubishi's Regional Jet, something akin to Russian SSJ-100 or Bombardier or Embraer RJs.

DH

Brig Ali:

"It left unsaid what such coordination would have entailed. Perhaps they are clarifying this point now."

Message received:

"“The Syrians and the Iranians, from our point of view, are playing with fire. The Syrians are playing with fire when they allow the Iranians to attack Israel from their soil. We are willing, prepared, and capable to exact a heavy price on anyone that attacks us. However, we are not looking to escalate the situation,” Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, Head of the International Media Desk of the Israeli Defense Forces, said."

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-february-12-2018-new-round-of-syrian-israeli-escalation-f-16i-shootdown/

Richardstevenhack

Alexander Mercouris analyses the Israel jet shoot down and Israeli response (which Netanyahu is in my opinion absurdly claiming that Israel took out half of Syria's air defenses).

He concludes that Russia and Israel have no interest in conflict with each other as long as Israel doesn't directly threaten the survival of the Assad government.

Vladimir Putin warns Netanyahu over Syria
Russian President warns Israeli leader against ‘steps that could lead to a new round of confrontation’
http://theduran.com/f-16-shoot-down-putin-warns-netanyahu/

The problem, as I bring up in the comments, is that is exactly what Israel intended with the Syria crisis from Day One, and that Israel intends both Syria and Hizballah ability to be actors in an Iran war to be degraded.

I don't think Russia wants to see that scenario play out. I think that is the reason they are looking for a military agreement with Lebanon - to aid Lebanon's ability to resist Israeli aggression, and by extension, Hizballah's, without having to be seen to directly support Hizballah - and also as a warning to Israel over its intentions.

In my view, Israel and Russia are headed for a direct conflict at some point in the relatively near future. If Israel starts a new war with Lebanon - possibly with US support - and then tries to extend that war into Syria - possibly over the Golan Heights and Hizballah's and Iran's presence in Syria - I don't see how Russia can stay out of it entirely. Not that Russia will necessarily try to confront either the US or Israel militarily, but Russia will have to come down in support of the Syrian/Hizballah side somehow. Otherwise, Russia will just be kicking the can down the road to the Iran war.

outthere

Thanks for those links to your articles, also for telling us your "real" name.
I appreciate writers who speak the languages of the subject matter, and have real experience in it. Reading about the historical importance of navies reminds me of Bucky Fuller, who referred to pioneers of naval warfare as "the great pirates".

Tom

@Smoothie Russia withdrew from Mongolia with the understanding that nobody would move in. Should things continue as they are in the foreseeable future a corrupt goverment will ask for Chinese troups to be stationed. It will happen when there are disagreements between Russia and China. Or when China will have learned enough from Russia. It´s still a long way but the path is being laid. Then Chinese troups will be not 1100 K from Lake Baikal but 300k. Russia has sold her 49% share of Mongolia´s most important foreign exchange owner Erdenet Mining to a shady character with Chinese connection last year. That is no coincidence. The Mongolian goverment frantically tries to get this under state control but there is no chance. "International jurisdiction". This sidn´t happen by chance. It is part of Chinas reconquista.

VietnamVet

All.

I haven’t had this much fun in a long time reading these comments. Where is Dick Nixon when you need him? Instead, Western Oligarchs drooled over Ukraine’s resources and drove China and Russia together. If looting peripheral EU states wasn’t enough, regime change from Libya to Syria forced millions to migrate into Europe. Today, the American infrastructure rebuilding plan was released; 80% local and 20% federal. What a joke on the Heartland. The West is in a fast rockslide downward. This forces China and Russia to get along in order to survive. The question is how to convince the idiots in Israel and the USA that a nuclear war is a extremely bad idea. Perpetual war is dangerous. Not to mention the transformation of the USA into Brazil. But, no American Administration dares to sign a Peace Treaty. There is no way out.

outthere

Exactly right, Nixon's wisdom was to make it a 3 way game
instead of USA v. Russia AND China.
Now USA has pushed China and Russia together by being hostile adversary to both.
And for what? Advantage within USA politics, following in the folly of Joe McCarthy.
Reminds of of George Wallace: "I will never be outniggered again."

The Beaver

@ DH

and yet
"A furious phone call on Saturday morning from President Vladimir Putin...was enough to make PM Benjamin Netanyahu...cancel the plans."

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/opinion/the-middle-easts-coming-war.html

SmoothieX12

Thanks for those links to your articles, also for telling us your "real" name.

My pleasure. Per my name--it became a necessity in 2014 with the events unfolding in Ukraine and me starting the blog.

SmoothieX12

It will happen when there are disagreements between Russia and China. Or when China will have learned enough from Russia. It´s still a long way but the path is being laid.

We'll see. A lot also depends on how successful Trump is in dealing with Russiagate--there are some signs that he is doing all right--and WHAT, if anything, will be worked out between Russia and US. Unlike China, Russia is categorically NOT interested in a radical American decline. Count Gorchakov's position in his message to Lincoln is still as valid today as it was during American Civil War:

"You know the sentiments of Russia. We desire above all things the maintenance of the American Union as one indivisible nation. We cannot take any part, more than we have done. We have no hostility to the Southern people. Russia has declared her position and will maintain it. There will be proposals of intervention [by Britain]. We believe that intervention could do no good at present. Proposals will be made to Russia to join some plan of interference. She will refuse any intervention of the kind. Russia will occupy the same ground as at the beginning of the struggle. You may rely upon it, she will not change. But we entreat you to settle the difficulty. I cannot express to you how profound an anxiety we feel--how serious are our fears (emphasis in original)." (c)

JamesT

Thirdeye

I am fascinated by China's quality control issues. I recently watched this video blog by two westerners who live in China talking about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JX4YtAvYwDU

What seems under discussed to me is that Foxconn (famous for making iphones) is actually Taiwanese - run by Taiwanese nationals all the way down to the shop floor supervisors. I've read that Taiwan was heavily influenced by Japan during its long occupation, and that if you walk the streets of Taipai it feels like Japan.

JamesT

SmoothieX12

China is behind in jet engines and submarine designs, but she has the J-20 now in combat service. A few years ago a Thales employee told me that Thales had 10,000 contractors doing radar R&D for the Chinese. Just as Britain had to take a back seat to the US after WWII, I think Russia needs to come to grip with where it is in the world (and I don't buy into the anti-Russian propaganda the MSM is pushing).

SmoothieX12

China is behind in jet engines and submarine designs, but she has the J-20 now in combat service

No she doesn't because she has no genuine 5th gen. fighter. J-20 is not 5th gen. fighter and Chinese announcements of having it in service are slightly more than PR. J-20 doesn't have engine which is required for real 5th gen. fighters, not did it exhibit even rudimentary super-maneuverability which now became a must for real 5th generation. So, we may go back and forth with this, but making carbon-fiber angled shapes does not make one a 5th generation fighter. It is a cold hard fact of life.

A few years ago a Thales employee told me that Thales had 10,000 contractors doing radar R&D for the Chinese.

I don't know if you know my background, but people from Russian aerospace who actually work with Chinese told me too about a rather unimpressive state of Chinese aerospace. That is why China is in JV for CR-929, which will have Russian wing, empennage and engine, plus continues to buy billions worth of state-of-the-art military hardware from Russia.

I think Russia needs to come to grip with where it is in the world

I think that it is you who have to study subject matter a bit better in order to pass judgements on a very serious technological, especially military, issues. Unlike you, I have a damn good understanding of what goes, as an example, into designing and building a state-of-the-art nuclear submarine and its weapons, so I can compare and pass judgements on that. Again, when China will have anything comparable to Pr. 885 SSGN, Virginia-class SSN, or when her over-hyped COMAC C919 will even reach 20% of tests flight tempo compared to MC-21, including its revolutionary for this class black wing, then we may talk. I will omit here, back to fighter-jets, what it is to have avionics and software required for all-aspect (360) Thrust Vectoring. That is why China paid 2+ billion for 24 SU-35 just recently and already flies 14 of them. Have you heard of Russians buying Chinese military hardware? Never heard of that.That pretty much answers you question on who have to get a grip, and I am not even going here to compare Russia's military history and operational-strategic school and experience with that of China.

DH

Thanks, TB, seems the NYT is getting the memo, too.

Anna

Daesh is in troubles -- CENTCOM to the rescue: "The illusion of the eradication of Daesh"by Thierry Meyssan: http://www.voltairenet.org/article199706.html
"Most of Daesh’s jihadists have split into two groups. The United States (via the Kurdish anarchists) and Turkey treat them as professional combatants and offer them a future as mercenaries.
a) The first group was recuperated by Brett McGurk and General Joseph Votel to form half of a Frontier Protection Force stationed in Syria. But since this project was censored by General Jim Mattis, the Force has not been constituted. These men are camped in Kasham, at the exit from the US military base."
-- The Israelis should be satisfied with the US care for the “professional combatants: of Daesh pedigree, which are stationed at the exit from the US military base. But they are not satisfied; the supremacists want a greater activity and more “infusions” from the US.

turcopolier

Anna

How many times must I tell you not tp post things more than once. I will post comments when I get around to it. pl

Charles

Did not realize you had responded to my question. Indeed Mr. Trump's words and actions have been visible since at least the mid 70's. In reading his words and looking at what he has done since 1970, I have not found any indication that he lusts to be a "war-president, or that he has some deep seated need for approbation and love from various vacuous talking heads. I remember Kennedy getting killed and then Johnson and then Nixon playing war president and selecting the B-52 targets for the next day, Clinton micro managing Serbia and failing to ever find Bin Laden, Bush with his codpiece strutting on the deck of that AC with the Mission Accomplished sign. I think Mr. Trump has seen "war presidents" and might just be unimpressed with the title and the title holders.

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