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04 January 2018


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@SmoothieX12 Totally agree on Karlin.


"...or because his hands are tied?"
Perhaps he wants to stay alive (and to see his family alive) before the end of his term?

Babak Makkinejad

You seem to be confirming my point, "willful ignorance".
On your second point, I disagree. To take your analogy, one may not be a surgeon or wish to be one, but one can obtain and watch such procedure as facial reconstruction purely out of curiosity.


they st8ll retain an interest in the two Mistral class currently being operated b6 Egypt and have initiated a home bu8ld programme as per these links.

Not really. The core of the issue with Russian Navy' power projection capability is in economic and sensible compromise on anything aircraft carrying--for Mediterranean, specifically, most likely (I could be wrong, of course) will be approach to something reminiscent of US Navy's USS America (LHA-6) with Russian twist. Borisov's recent bomb on Russia working already on new generation of STOVL confirms chosen direction. Russia simply doesn't need amphibious component of a US Navy's scale and capability.


the exchange between Tom, Ulenspiegel and LeaNder reminded me of another exchange on SST last October.


English Outsider (comment #83) made there a very eloquent exposure about the „special German sin“.
Now, I sense another twist to the „speciality“ of Germans (maybe I am too suspicious?), this time about their revanchism in the way they do not want to forget the land lost in the East, which is roughly 30% of the entire pre-1939 area. (I am not sure about the percentage of population which was lost).
Compare that to the French „revanchism“ - losing Alsace Lorraine after 1870-71 war. This province was a tiny fragment of the entire territory of France, nothing to compare with the 30% of what Germany has lost. And there were never ending cries „oublier… Jamais!“, demonstrations, monuments on Place de la Concorde… and in almost every town, songs, flags of Alsace and Lorraine in the french Parlament, the general Boulanger, called „General Revanche“ etc.,
How does that compare with the image of a few politicians like Erika Steinbach, which LeaNder mentioned (comment #40 above), or Weigel in the AfD? They are very little heard of. Do Steinbach or Weigel prove that Germans are revanchist? Some are, but overwhelming majority is not revanchist - in my opinion. I talked to many Germans, some of whom had their parents or grandparents from East Prussia, West Prussia, Silesia. A very prominent example of how people, who came from the former Prussian lands in the east, was Marion Gräfin Dönhoff. She was for many years in charge of the influential weekly „Die Zeit“ - wrote multiple essays about the problem between Poland and Germany (Polen und Deutsche. Die Schwierige Versöhnung, Luchterhand, 1991). Ms. Dönhoff had much more influence on the public opinion in Germany than Ms. Steinbach. Likewise, Egon Bahr, who was the architect of the policy of „Opening to East“ - one of the culminating points was the state visit of Chancellor Willy Brandt to Warsaw and his famous knee fall at the Ghetto Memorial.
So, the other end of the spectrum of opinions about the German Revanchism is the fear of some Poles that the Germans are now trying to subjugate Poland by economic means, not militarily. Some of these folks remind me a little of conspiracy theorists who think that Germany is using EU as their way to subjugate Europe. Some kind of „german deep state“? They quote the statistics, how many regional newspapers are in the german hands, how many banks are german owned and so on. That is the about it, people like Steinbach and german money are the biggest threat? Poles are stupid if they fall in for this stoking of germanophobia, which - simultaneously in connection with russophobia - (and, in connection with those two phobias, their reliance on US, british or french support ) is just another recipe for disaster.
I personally dislike the recurring theme of german revanchism. All nations have their revanchist streaks and the world record in nationalistic revanchism is most likely the zionism, demanding lands lost thousands of years ago. The specter of german revanchism is used by some circles to foment the strife between two wonderful people, the Polish and the Germans.

Chris Chuba

Patrick Armstrong, I don't know if you mentioned this before but the Russian budgets for 2017 and 2018 is based on $40 a barrel oil, a very conservative estimate with prices well north of that so far.

Smoothiee, regarding the march on Moscow in 1945, it's amazing that a flippant remark made by Patton in the 1940's is still taken as gospel truth in the present day. Patton was a talented field commander but a bit of a war junkie looking for his next fix, it wasn't based on actual intelligence but on his intuition. It would be an interesting video game, thank God Eisenhower was a big picture guy, we would have gotten bogged down in a stalemate in Eastern Europe with bodies piling up. Anyone who doubts the Red Army's capabilities at the time should look at what they did to the Japanese Imperial army in Manchuria in August of 1945. They cut through them like butter in some very difficult terrain. These weren't isolated Island garrisons but a large defensive army close to 900,000 troops.

Patrick Armstrong

Closing the comments s we've used up the subject. See you in a couple of weeks.

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