INCONCEIVABLE! - TTG

“It's the summer of 2014. A hacker from the Dutch intelligence agency AIVD has penetrated the computer network of a university building next to the Red Square in Moscow, oblivious to the implications. One year later, from the AIVD headquarters in Zoetermeer, he and his colleagues witness Russian hackers launching an attack on the Democratic Party in the United States. The AIVD hackers had not infiltrated just any building; they were in the computer network of the infamous Russian hacker group Cozy Bear. And unbeknownst to the Russians, they could see everything.”

“That's how the AIVD becomes witness to the Russian hackers harassing and penetrating the leaders of the Democratic Party, transferring thousands of emails and documents. It won't be the last time they alert their American counterparts. And yet, it will be months before the United States realize what this warning means: that with these hacks the Russians have interfered with the American elections. And the AIVD hackers have seen it happening before their very eyes.” 

“The Dutch access provides crucial evidence of the Russian involvement in the hacking of the Democratic Party, according to six American and Dutch sources who are familiar with the material, but wish to remain anonymous. It's also grounds for the FBI to start an investigation into the influence of the Russian interference on the election race between the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate Donald Trump.”  (Volkskrant)

*************************

The events behind this story have been alluded to in various accounts of digital penetrations of US computer systems over the last few years. Rick Ledgett described the Department of State hack in November 2014 as intense “hand-to-hand combat within a network” against an aggressive and tenacious foe known as Cozy Bear or APT29. The fight to rid the Pentagon and JCS networks of an uncharacteristically aggressive foe in August 2015 was also attributed to Cozy Bear and the Russian government. The same person who led the NSA team in the JCS fight, Captain Johnston, USMC, faced this foe again as a CrowdStrike employee when he responded to a call from the DNC in April 2016. When the FBI first warned the DNC in September 2015 that hackers were in the DNC network, Special Agent Adrian Hawkins referred to the intruders as the Dukes, another name for Cozy Bear or APT29.

In each of these cases we knew who the intruders were because of the digital and visual surveillance of those intruders and their SVR handlers by the Dutch. Information from that surveillance let USI identify the SVR officers involved. USI subsequently bugged the SVR officers’ phones and monitored their communications. This is a major reason why the CIA, NSA and FBI were able to assess with high confidence that Moscow made a concerted effort to influence the 2016 election.

There are still many who find it inconceivable that the Russian government attempted to influence the election much less pull off the DNC and Podesta hacks. They also find it inconceivable that a concerted, long term intelligence operation could ever prove attribution. It can and it does. I’ve done it myself. I see plenty of room for doubt concerning the effects of such a Russian influence operation or whether anyone in the Trump camp knew about this or took part in it. That’s a whole different story requiring its own concerted, long term investigation. l’m more than willing to wait for this investigation to run its course. It's just a damned shame that more sources and methods will inevitably be burnt in the process.

TTG

https://www.volkskrant.nl/media/dutch-agencies-provide-crucial-intel-about-russia-s-interference-in-us-elections~a4561913/

http://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2017/04/nsa-engaged-massive-battle-russian-hackers-2014/136683/

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2017/04/incident_respon_1.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jasonleopold/he-solved-the-dnc-hack-now-hes-telling-his-story-for-the?utm_term=.ldB8J07EBe#.egXw3nkGKr

Comments

[aleksandar]

Eric, respectfully we should begin with the first question. What prove that actually DNC servers where hacked ?
The wikileaks mails can came from others sources, isn't it ?

[aleksandar]

Walrus.
If you read this piece you will see that it's not the Dutch, but only a journalist citing " anonymous " sources.So the Dutch gvt may not be involved.
No domestic motive probably, just an attempt bye the Borg to make the russian gate staying alive by spreading fake news.
The story about the camera is just out a James Bond film or a Monthy Pythons one.

[Jack]

TTG

I could very well be wrong but I was under the impression that Clapper and Brennan claimed that Trump colluded with the Russians. The Mueller probe was launched to investigate just that. Didn't the IC play a role in the launching of the probe by Mueller?

I agree with you however that there are three different aspects. One is did Russia hack the DNC and Podesta emails? Two, did Trump collude with the Russians to steal the election? Three, Did law enforcement attempt to frame Trump and also exonerate Hillary for partisan reasons?

[VietnamVet]

TTG

You are an expert. There is no doubt that there is hacking ongoing and intelligence gathering. What messes everything up is the corporate propaganda campaign. Plus, there is a bloodless counter coup to install Mike Pence as President and get rid of Donald Trump.

Russia is the Democrat’s scapegoat for the grief and pain of the 80% of Americans who have been thrown under the bus since 1980. A new Cold War has restarted for no good reason. There is a huge cone of silence around the MH-17 shoot down. It is extremely weird that it is mentioned at all except as a Dutch click bait. This is the Internet.

The prospects for a world war keep ratchetting up in the absence of the truth.

The Dutch article reminds me of the better written, exciting post I read yesterday about the false flag nuclear missile attack on Hawaii that was thwarted by the US Space Force or Aliens. Except, it failed to mention that Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard had tweeted that it was a false alarm after 12 minutes (before the launch submarine was sunk).

[The Twisted Genius]

Jack,

I don't remember Clapper or Brennan ever claiming collusion. They may very well believe it privately, but the DNI assessment never addressed the possibility of any collusion and specifically said it could not and would not make a determination about the effectiveness of Russian interference. The Mueller probe authorized the SC to investigate Russian interference and related matters. It sure seems to be focused on collusion and obstruction rather than Russian interference. I assume it's because they already have the Russian interference part covered. That part was more IC than DOJ anyways.

I was disappointed when Clinton wasn't indicted for obstruction for sanitizing the email servers. I thought that would be a sure thing. The classified info was problematic because it was no more authorized on the DOS IT system than it was on Clinton's private server. They would have had to indict a buttload of DOS personnel. My guess is that there is a lot of classified info on unclassified government systems. I don't know if anybody is doing anything about it. I never had an unclassified government account and never wanted one for just that reason.

I also think the FBI's public reopening of Clinton's email investigation did just as much if not more than any Russian interference to damage Clinton's already damaged campaign. I wonder what a public acknowledgement of the opened Russian interference investigation would have done if it came out prior to the election. But this is all just idle speculation and matters for naught.

[jpb]

It's hard to keep the actors straight in the last act of "The Game of Oligarchs".

Israel Shamir's drool humor and some history on the Alpha Bank Jews lightens the evening entertainment. The clip mentions Ruth Bader Ginsberg who broke protocol in the last election to endorse the government by experts, rather than government of the people, by the people, and for the people. HaHaHa

"Direct and generous beneficiaries of their lobbying are the Three Alpha Jews, Peter Aven, Michael Friedman and Herman Khan. They are owners of the Alpha Bank, a very big Russian bank , and they are Old Money oligarchs from Yeltsin’s days when their kin ruled the land.

Michael Friedman, the fat guy with a jolly piglet face, rose to his eminence from being a ticket tout selling illegally obtained opera tickets to Western tourists near Bolshoi Theatre; afterwards he became The Mind behind all ticket mafias in Moscow, and then proceeded to banking and so many other things.

Like many Old Money guys, Friedman earns money in Russia, but siphons it off for Jewish causes. He is a co-founder of a “Jewish Nobel Prize”, also called Genesis Prize, a cool million dollars being given annually to a deserving Jew, the most recent one being the notorious Ruth Bader Ginsburg who called Donald Trump, “the faker”. This is not a coincidence; the Russian Old Money is solidly in bed with the Clinton camp. If Friedman succeeds in escaping the sanctions, it will be an additional proof that the Bankers still have the upper hand in the US Administration."

http://www.unz.com/ishamir/the-rich-also-cry/

[Yeah, Right]

Having read that Dutch article several times it seems clear to me that the only thing the AIVD managed to compromise is the IP-based security cameras in that building.

Indeed, I think it is pretty obvious from the article that it was only one camera that was compromised - the camera that was pointing down that "curved" entry hall.

I'd put good money on the idea that the original IP camera in that corridor failed, and some slack technician just pulled another unit out of the box without changing the default admin password on it. Hence it was just waiting to be hacked.

If that's the case then the infiltration would have gone no further than that one camera, and everything - and I mean everything - else in that article is pure conjecture based on entirely on who the Dutch could see coming 'n' going down that corridor.

Colour me sceptical, but I am firmly of the opinion that the Dutch story is a big pile of hokum mixed in with a mashup of self-delusion.

[The Twisted Genius]

Yeah, Right,

How do you figure the Dutch were able to repeatedly relay the identity of APT29 command and control servers to the NSA over a 24 hour period during the 2014 DOS attack with access only to the IP-based security camera in the hall? It seems obvious to me that they got access to the university network prior to accessing the security camera. That was just icing on the cake.

[sid]

https://steemit.com/trump/@caitlinjohnstone/russiagate-isn-t-about-trump-and-it-isn-t-even-ultimately-about-russia

[TonyL]

Do you have the clearances for this specific subject?

And if you don't, do you have the type of clearance or needs to know about all intelligent operations?

[turcopolier]

TTG

I DO remember Clapper strongly implying on TV treasonous conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russians. pl

[catherine]

'' BTW, It looks to me like Russia and Iran are a close tie for the #1 spot''

Yes you are right--I wanted to rephrase it but had no edit function. I think though maybe they cant get Iran without side lining Russia somewhat.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

When you mentioned that I remember seeing a recent photo of that sour, old SOB. I looked for it and found this quote from a CNN interview on 19 Dec 2017.

"I think this past weekend is illustrative of what a great case officer Vladimir Putin is. He knows how to handle an asset, and that’s what he’s doing with the president … You have to remember Putin’s background. He’s a KGB officer. That’s what they do. They recruit assets. And I think some of that experience and instincts of Putin has come into play here in his managing of a pretty important account for him, if I could use that term, with our president."

The interview went on to say, " When pressed about what exactly he was saying, Clapper explained that he meant his words “figuratively,” but that barely mitigates the shock value of what he said."

Someone in his position should not be saying the President is a recruited asset even if he's speaking figuratively and even though he's no longer in the IC. Once again, Clapper's being too clever by half. First he doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground when talks about HUMINT assets. Second, he's conflating business interests (even if shady) with asset recruitment. Third, Trump is what I consider uncontrollable and unsuitable for recruitment.

I remember a time when Russia was caught doing something to us far worse than an election influence op. I was not involved in the response, but everyone I knew who was involved was seriously riled up and driven to exact bloody, albeit digital, vengeance. It was a reaction I seldom saw from a bunch of intel wienies. If the IC at the level I knew is sure of the Russian influence op and even just strongly suspicious of some kind of conspiracy, the Russians and the Trump administration are in trouble.

[Jack]

TTG,

I agree that the IC report did not claim collusion. Just interference in our election. And you are right they never made any assesment of how effective the Rusdian interference was in swaying the result of the election. However, I recall Brennan and Clapper going on TV and making inflammatory accusations and through innuendo for sure, asserting that Trump's election win was not legitimate. I am sure at their behest Obama then made similar accusations and added to the sanctions and expelled Russian diplomats. I'm sure you'd agree with me that Obama, Clapper, Brennan and the Clinton campaign and pretty much the entire media fanned the flames of the narrative that the election was not legitimate and Clinton lost because the election was stolen. Now months later no one has produced any tangible evidence that the narrative they sold was based on anything factual.

Assume that the Russians did hack the emails. First, they did not deceive the American public by publishing false content. It was the actual email content of the DNC and Podesta. Second, if the IC can't make any assessment of its effectiveness then they should not be a party to the selling of the narrative that the election was stolen. Clapper and Brennan were not circumspect. They actively pitched the narrative and fed the hysteria.

The Mueller probe was launched on the basis of false pretenses, IMO, because there seems to be no factual basis at least until now anyway, that Trump colluded with the Russian government to steal the election. The hysteria leading up to it and then the firing of Comey, a perfectly legitimate act by a POTUS, created the media and political firestorm for the appointment. We are finding out slowly that the FBI/DOJ probe of Clinton and the Trump campaign has not been on the up and up. Infact both probes have been run on the basis of partisan bias at the highest levels of these organizations. That is a substantially bigger story as it points to deep corruption in law enforcement investigations. This is what Nunes, Goodlatte, and Grassley are investigating.

I think many are conflating several different issues. There is no evidence yet that the alleged Russian intelligence operation materially changed the outcome of the rlection. Then, there is no evidence yet that Trump colluded with the Russian government. There is mounting evidence however that top officials in law enforcement attempted to delegitimize a duly elected POTUS.

[catherine]

'' Second, he's conflating business interests (even if shady) with asset recruitment. Third, Trump is what I consider uncontrollable and unsuitable for recruitment. ''

I know absolutely nothing about Clapper and am ignorant about all the digital intel world capabilities....But the ''(even if shady) business interest'' is what I would pay attention to.

It is well known that Trump, coming off his fourth bankruptcy and US banks not willing to make loans to him any longer, was saved only by an avalanche of rich Russians(with funny money and a growing list of the now charged with money laundering)- buying his properties thru shell companies. Russian money is all over Trump like white on rice---same goes for Kushner who was desperate for the money to cover his 1.2 billion bank debt that comes due Jan 2019.

Soooo....my thinking is that 'if' Putin or the Jewish/Israeli Russian oligarchs have something on Trump it is connected to money laundering. All either of those two would have to do is have someone come forward to say Trump knew he was laundering dirty money thru his real estate sales to them.
That's a huge sword over Trumps head and his achilles heel imo.

[Anna]

Are you also disappointed by the untimely death of Seth Rich?

[Anna]

Well, your animosity towards Russians is obvious in your comments. As one of the commenters has noticed, the ongoing bru-ha-ha of Russiagate (which exposed the highest echelon of the US security apparatus as a bunch incompetent opportunists) is also related to a special attitude towards Russia and Iran, and attitude that reflects the interests of our "most trusted friend and the only democracy in the Middle East." Was not the Kagans' clan of ziocons heavily involved in the Maidan revolution that led to liberation of Ukraine from decency? -- See the triumph of neo-Nazi in Ukrainian government and the concurrent unprecedented rise of anti-semitism in Ukraine. The "triumph" has been accomplished next to Russian border. Russia has lost her citizens in the millions during the WWII and Russians do remember and revere the fallen. Do the US politicians revere those American soldiers that perished during the WWII? If yes, then how come that the US has been supporting and collaborating with Ukrainian neo-Nazis? And where are the prudes from the Lobby?
As for CrowdStrike and Atlantic Council (the latter is a home to such important expert as Mr. Eliot Higgins the Ignoramus), their pronouncements worth nothing next to the analysis of real experts -- who also happened to be the true patriots, the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity: http://warisacrime.org/vips/
It would be interesting to know your opinion of Awan affair and its consequences for the US national security.

[charly]

Volkkrant wrote the article in cooperation with TV show Nieuwsuur. Which you can see here https://www.bvn.tv/programma/Nieuwsuur/VPWON_1282907 .It is sadly not subtitled but it does show the location of the Russians on a satellite image.

All the important Dutch parties are very Atlanticist so not surprising anti-Russian and very left socially (outside migration maybe) and rightwing economical so they loved Hillary. One of the big, totally not state controlled, lotteries(the Left one) even gave tens of millions to the Clinton foundations.

[mariner]

'There are still many who find it inconceivable that the Russian government attempted to influence the election'

May I insert the word 'Americans' between 'many' and 'who'? There are still many Americans who find it inconconceivable. Call it for what it is. Schismogenesis. Shows how easy it is to get the citizens of a literate, well educated country to tear eachother apart, amply evidenced by the partisan though restrained arguments here. Some of us watched the same method undermining the Australia polity as partisan politics representing different value sets fought over refugee boats. Entropy indeed.

[Yeah, Right]

With all due respect, if you go back and re-read the 2nd linked article in your own post you will see that it says exactly what I am claiming.

The claim that the Dutch had compromised some IP camera(s) is not new - it was first revealed in early 2017.

The claim that "the Dutch were able to repeatedly relay the identity of APT29 command and control servers to the NSA over a 24 hour period during the 2014 DOS" is completely new and, to my mind, gives off more than a little whiff of embellishment.

You clearly believe it, and maybe you are right.
I don't believe it, and maybe I am wrong.

Buuuuuuut, then again........

[Ivan]

The US throughout its history has sought to influence the course of politics in countless countries. Recent examples include Vietnam, Indonesia, Chile; and was involved or trained those involved in the assassinations of foreign leaders. It periodically issues "report cards" meant to influence electoral outcomes. Yet the hysterics in the US act so precious when anything similar is done in the US. Does the US not have a free and independent press? A free electoral process, with well informed people precisely to obviate these very pedestrian type of interferences? As V Putin asked: Is the US a banana republic? After having observed the level of misdirection, the intensity of hatred for the Russians, the clutching at straws, all my years of observing the US political process leads me to conclude that as many have regrettably concluded, we would not be seeing this level of distortion, widely diffused through all the modern propaganda channels, were it not for the outsized influence of some Jews who get their hatred of the Russians from their mothers' milk.

[David Habakkuk]

TTG,

I asked you a question, to which I have not had an answer. Since it seems to me critical to assessing the credibility of any claims you make in relation to matters to do with Russia, I will repeat it.

You wrote:

‘What they do care about is ensuring that the US is rife with doubt and internal discord so that we are unable to confront Russia in any meaningful way.’

I asked: ‘Do you have credible evidence to support this analysis of Putin’s objectives?’

In the light of your quotation from Clapper, I will ask a supplementary.

You wrote: ‘Once again, Clapper’s being too clever by half.’

Do you think anything the former DNI says about anything deserves to be taken seriously at all?

[mikee]

TTG #116. That last sentence is very troubling. If that's true, your intel associates are in need of a comeuppance. Maybe they should be forced to watch The Caine Mutiny (after work, for a week, minimum).

[Lee A. Arnold]

"Collusion" is not a defined crime. Suppose Trump sent campaign people to meet with Russians. Then the campaign people come back to Trump with knowledge that DNC emails were hacked. Trump does not report this to law enforcement. (This would fit right into Trump's temperament and management style.) What is the crime? Hacking the emails may or may not be a crime. Not reporting the knowledge that emails were hacked by someone else? -- may or may not be a crime. But it would stink to high heaven. If Mueller comes back with a public report like this, even without an indictable crime, impeachment becomes Issue #1 for the midterm election campaigns. Impeachment doesn't need an indictable crime. All the Koch money in the world won't prevent the Democrats from retaking the House.

[JMH]

People in "denial" would just like more evidence and less supposition.