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18 January 2018

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different clue

kooshy,

(reply to comment 50),

I think your comment actually helps to support my theory. Of course the IranGov "supports" the Baghdad Shia supremacist government "fully" at any cost. They also want to keep it too weakly in command of Iraq to be able to govern without Iran's full "support". That is why the Iran gov will never force ( or even suggest) that the Baghdad Shia government deal fairly with the Sunni Arab Anbaris and others.

If the Iran gov in fact FORCES the Baghdad Shia regime to deal fairly with the several million Sunni Arabs who have already shown that they can support an insurgency if they feel they have to, then they will be treated fairly enough to where they no longer feel they have to support an insurgency. And the "sea" which the Bitter Baathist core and its various ISIS containment domes swim in will become a dry well, and the Bitter Baathists will swim no more. And if it happens that way, I will freely come onto the appropriate thread at that time and admit just how right you were about just how bullsh*tty my theory is.

But if if happens the way I theorize . . . that the Iran gov will leave its Baghdad Shia clients free to oppress and persecute the Sunni Arab Iraqis to their hearts' delight, thereby inspiring insurgency after insurgency after insurgency requiring Iran to keep providing its full "support" at any cost, then my theory will have been proven to be bullshinola, not bullsh*t.

In the meantime, your sense of genuinely aggrieved offendedness at my theory calls to mind the American saying . . . " if the foo sh*ts . . ."

Kooshy

IMO, there are two facts that you and most westerners don’t understand about Iraq. One is that there is no such thing as Iraqi, simply people of Iraq have no sense or loyalty to Iraq, they do have loyalty to thier sect and thier branch of religion regardless wht Iranian or Iraqi governments wish or do. Secondly loyalty and sense of nationality and belonging in entire Middle East except for Turkey and Iran (Babak’ saljugh bondries) are auctioned and sold temporarily to the highest payer. If west would have understood and understands Iraq and it’s history and demographiy they knew Iran needed to do nothing to wind Iraq, still doesn’t by default majority in Iraq have no choice but to side with Iran, and naturally Sunnis of Iraq and rest of the world would not like that weather Iran want it that way or not. That is the reason Iran need not to keep government of Iran weak but rather strong. Sorry but IMO, your long explanation, no matter he wnyountwist it is a BS and make no sense.

Kooshy

Sorry to see you irritated for this realities. My father (a Historian) once told me historians perhaps can change and rewrite history as the wish, but fortunately they never can change geography and it’s people, he meant geography and people will eventually set the twisted facts right. Westerners specially Americans have no intrest or even respect for a geography and it’s people and it’s history. That is what happened in Iraq or Kurdish regions and the rest of ME, specially thier Israel project. IMO, for next few dancers the wars in ME will continue until once agin west moves to the west of Bosporus.

Kooshy

BTW here is the mean flaw with your theory

“If the Iran gov in fact FORCES the Baghdad Shia regime to deal fairly with the several million Sunni Arabs who have already shown that they can support an insurgency if they feel they have to, then they will be treated fairly enough to where they no longer feel they have to support an insurgency.”

So you think, if Iran some how had the power to force Iraqi Shia government ( which only survives on behest of Najaf’ and Qum) to allow insurgency tried, and used and capable to use agin Sunni Iraqis more fairly. These Sunni Iraqis, including their Saudi and US inspirers and bank rollers, going to be satisfied and leave the now strong Iraqi government alone?. May I ask, which world you live in, or how old you are?

I am not aggrieved or offended, from your openion, I just saw your analysis has no factual base or sense of reality.

J

Patrick,

It's good to hear from you. Hope everything is well with you. Happy New Year to you and all the best.

J

VP Pence is muddying up the waters.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180121-pence-starts-middle-east-tour-in-egypt-pledges-shoulder-to-shoulder-support/

Patrick Bahzad

Babak,

I suspect IS has been working on some time on their "post-Califate" period, with emphasis on "deterritorialisation, globalisation and virtualization", i.e. reversing back to insurgency in some areas, ensure their - even marginal - presence on a global scale and expand in the cyberworld with more language versions of their propaganda, for example.

In that regard, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia look like two "hubs" they are intent on developing. I'm not so sure about India, but Indonesia and Malaysia definitely. Also because there are a significant number of Jihadis from these countries fighting in the ME.

Patrick Bahzad

TTG, I'm afraid that exactly what is going to happen, whether that is in 6 months or 6 years I don't know, but the end result is likely to be the same. Look at what happened in Iraq.

Overall, US policies in the region lack the subtlety that would be required for informal agreements with non-State groups to group properly in the long run. Everything is too obvious.

Patrick Bahzad

In Iraq, many casualties were EFP related. In Lebanon, it was car bombs. In Mosul, it was (S)VBIEDS.
Besides, they wouldn't carry a flag saying "we dunnit", would they ?

Patrick Bahzad

I'm not saying IS will not try and maybe manage to keep some presence in Syria's East, they most probably will. I'm saying Iraq has always been central to their concerns and will continue to be the focus of their attention in the ME.
There are several limiting factors to their ability to keep on going in Eastern Syria, one of them being the hostility of a large part of local tribes to IS. The other being the lack of a sizeable population that would be favourable to any larger scale comeback.
With AQ groups, it's a different story. But IS as such, has more chances at keeping an operational base in Iraq than in Syria.

Patrick Bahzad

J, thx a lot ! Same to you ;-)

Fred

Babak,

"...Near Easterners play the Game of Religions and Tribes."

The credentialed elites who populate the West's foreign policy apparatus and orbiting intelegensia no longer understand religion as a belief system to organize ones life and the society on lives in - if they are not openly hostile to believers, especially Christian ones in their own lands.

Babak Makkinejad

Thank you.

Babak Makkinejad

Thank you.

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