Sic Semper Tyrannis

Democrats and Pundits Out of Touch with New Media Reality by Publius Tacitus

Why is Donald Trump winning? It is not because he has some a warm, charming personality. Nope. He understands the 21st Century media reality. That also explains why the Democrats and so many pundits who opine on politics are getting things wrong. The Dems and their pundit lackeys are living with a 1970s view of the media. They do not understand that ship has sailed.

Look first at the numbers of viewers for last night's State of the Union speech. This tells part of the story:

FOXNEWS 11,500,000

NBC               7,100,000

CBS                7,000,000

ABC                5,400,000

FOX                3,600,000

CNN                3,100,000

MSNBC           2,700,000

 That's a total of 40,300,000 viewers. Sounds like a lot. But when you consider the fact that the population in America is approaching 330 million, that's only 12 percent of the population. 

Let's take this to the level of who watches news. There is the assumption among those who turn on FOX or CNN or MSNBC that these outlets are influential in helping set policy and inform political opinion. That may have been true 30 years ago, but it is no longer the case.

Consider these facts.

How the U.S. House Can Disclose the Tantalizing Secret Memo About Surveillance

By Robert Willmann

On Monday, 29 January 2018, the U.S. House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence met for a business meeting and voted on five agenda items or motions concerning classified executive session memoranda.  This is the tantalizing matter of conduct by one or more executive branch agencies of surveillance, perhaps of president-elect Donald Trump, campaign members, and others.  Also said to possibly be involved is the secret federal court created by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), and maybe even the bawdy paper pushed during the presidential campaign by "former" (or current?) British MI6 agent Christopher Steele about Donald Trump and Russia.  Here are the agenda items and the votes on each one by committee members--

http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IG/IG00/20180129/106822/HMTG-115-IG00-20180129-SD001.pdf

The big one was item number four, which passed, and authorized the disclosure of one classified executive session memo.

Of equal interest is the fact that the U.S. Congress can declassify and make public a document or item that was deemed secret and not to be disclosed.  Buried in the 45 pages of fine print in the Rules of the House of Representatives is the language that is claimed to authorize the disclosure.  Rule 10 governs the organization of committees.  Section or clause 11 of Rule 10 deals with the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.  The good stuff describing the authority and procedure is on pdf pages 19 and 20 (document pages 15 and 16) of the rules, in parts 11(f) and 11(g).  You start near the bottom of the middle column with part "f" on pdf page 19 and go through part/clause 11(g)(2)(G) in the first column on pdf page 20--

https://rules.house.gov/sites/republicans.rules.house.gov/files/115/PDF/House-Rules-115.pdf

That Congress can decide what is classified secret and what is not, and can authorize disclosure, is self-evident from Article 1, section 1 of the U.S. Constitution:  "All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives".  However, the House rules are not legislation.  I have not yet tried to find a law passed by Congress that creates this unilateral power to declassify material, but I assume that it does exist, or it certainly should.

The members of the House intelligence committee are listed here--

http://clerk.house.gov/committee_info/index.aspx?comcode=IG00

One little item of interest is that committee member Will Hurd (Repub. Texas, 23rd District) is a former CIA officer.  His Congressional district includes part of the San Antonio area.  According to the committee document cited above with the motions that were voted on, he participated in all of the votes except number four, the one that starts the process to try to disclose the memo to the public.  He did not vote "present", so he may have ducked out of the room for that one.  If he has a philosophical objection to disclosing material previously designated as classified, he may not be put on the spot as the deciding vote to disclose if the whole House has to vote on that question. If the Republicans have a surplus in their majority in the House, he might either not vote at all or make a symbolic "no" vote.

If the underlying material for the memo was submitted by the "executive branch" and the executive branch requests that it be kept secret, the committee notifies the president that the vote to disclose was made.

 

16th Amendment

 

"The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration."  16th Amendment to the US Constitution

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The Democrat governors of; Connecticut, New York and New Jersey have sued the federal government in an attempt to block application of the new federal tax law.  Their specific complaint is that the new law abolishes the federal income tax deduction for state income taxes.  These three states and a few more including California have very high state income tax rates.  They also have a disproportionate number of people whose incomes place them in the 1% percentile of highest US individual incomes across the country.  It was reported this AM on Fox Business News that the average state income tax in New York for 1%ers is $500,000.  Under the old federal tax law this state tax was deductible from gross income before net income for federal taxation was determined.  To say that this is a massive loss for such folk is completely true.  Deplorable Trump voters typically either live in states with much lower income tax rates or don't make anything like that much money.  So for them the loss is much less especially considering lower tax rates in the new law and a doubled standard deduction.  In fact a great many of them will pay no federal income tax at all.  Quite a few paid no federal income tax under the old law and now that number will be larger.

In any circumstance the 16th Amendment is clear in that the federal government is not required to "balance" taxation among the states.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixteenth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

A Modest Proposal to dismember Syria ...

 

" ... the five countries called for a UN-supervised election for the -Syrians inside and outside the country and for radical changes in the Syrian constitution including stripping the Syrian presidency from most, if not all, of its powers.

The five countries also suggested stripping the Syrian government from many of its powers and creating two parliaments that will have limited powers. This will leave most of the state’s establishments under the control of the local authorities in a decentralized political system.

Syrian pro-government activists described the proposed constitution as an attempt to legalize the stateless situation in some parts of Syria in order to end the Syrian state once and for all.

Bashar Jaafari, the Permanent Representative of Syria to the United Nations, rejected the Arab-Western plan and stressed that its content contradicts with the international resolutions, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)."  SF

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The French and British created the state of Syria in pursuit of their imperial interests and now, in association with the US and Saudi Arabia, they seek to destroy it.  Jordan?  This is laughable.  Jordan is yet another artifact of the post WW1 re-structuring of the ecumenical empire that the Sublime Porte had more or less governed for hundreds of years in the name of Islam.  For the Jordanians to sign on to the destruction of Syria is worse than a crime.  It is stupid.  Have the Jordanians no sense at all of what may be their fate when greater powers find them inconvenient.

Saudi Arabia?  Their obvious desire to subjugate the interests of the many religious and ethnic groups of Syria is clear.  They have sought Wahhabi Sunni triumphalism and rule in the Levant for many years.  Their participation in this foolish proposal is yet more of the same.

Unless the Turks conquer a great deal of northern Syria and thereby make moot any such agreement, it is likely that in the end there will be some measure of autonomy granted to the Syrian Kurds by the SAG, but not more than that.  Loosely confederated states are not favored in the Islamic World.  They are thought to be inherently weak instruments of foreign meddling.  pl 

 

https://southfront.org/us-uk-france-saudi-arabia-and-jordan-propose-own-political-plan-to-solve-syrian-crisis/

INCONCEIVABLE! - TTG

“It's the summer of 2014. A hacker from the Dutch intelligence agency AIVD has penetrated the computer network of a university building next to the Red Square in Moscow, oblivious to the implications. One year later, from the AIVD headquarters in Zoetermeer, he and his colleagues witness Russian hackers launching an attack on the Democratic Party in the United States. The AIVD hackers had not infiltrated just any building; they were in the computer network of the infamous Russian hacker group Cozy Bear. And unbeknownst to the Russians, they could see everything.”

“That's how the AIVD becomes witness to the Russian hackers harassing and penetrating the leaders of the Democratic Party, transferring thousands of emails and documents. It won't be the last time they alert their American counterparts. And yet, it will be months before the United States realize what this warning means: that with these hacks the Russians have interfered with the American elections. And the AIVD hackers have seen it happening before their very eyes.” 

“The Dutch access provides crucial evidence of the Russian involvement in the hacking of the Democratic Party, according to six American and Dutch sources who are familiar with the material, but wish to remain anonymous. It's also grounds for the FBI to start an investigation into the influence of the Russian interference on the election race between the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate Donald Trump.”  (Volkskrant)

*************************

The events behind this story have been alluded to in various accounts of digital penetrations of US computer systems over the last few years. Rick Ledgett described the Department of State hack in November 2014 as intense “hand-to-hand combat within a network” against an aggressive and tenacious foe known as Cozy Bear or APT29. The fight to rid the Pentagon and JCS networks of an uncharacteristically aggressive foe in August 2015 was also attributed to Cozy Bear and the Russian government. The same person who led the NSA team in the JCS fight, Captain Johnston, USMC, faced this foe again as a CrowdStrike employee when he responded to a call from the DNC in April 2016. When the FBI first warned the DNC in September 2015 that hackers were in the DNC network, Special Agent Adrian Hawkins referred to the intruders as the Dukes, another name for Cozy Bear or APT29.

In each of these cases we knew who the intruders were because of the digital and visual surveillance of those intruders and their SVR handlers by the Dutch. Information from that surveillance let USI identify the SVR officers involved. USI subsequently bugged the SVR officers’ phones and monitored their communications. This is a major reason why the CIA, NSA and FBI were able to assess with high confidence that Moscow made a concerted effort to influence the 2016 election.

There are still many who find it inconceivable that the Russian government attempted to influence the election much less pull off the DNC and Podesta hacks. They also find it inconceivable that a concerted, long term intelligence operation could ever prove attribution. It can and it does. I’ve done it myself. I see plenty of room for doubt concerning the effects of such a Russian influence operation or whether anyone in the Trump camp knew about this or took part in it. That’s a whole different story requiring its own concerted, long term investigation. l’m more than willing to wait for this investigation to run its course. It's just a damned shame that more sources and methods will inevitably be burnt in the process.

TTG

https://www.volkskrant.nl/media/dutch-agencies-provide-crucial-intel-about-russia-s-interference-in-us-elections~a4561913/

http://www.nextgov.com/cybersecurity/2017/04/nsa-engaged-massive-battle-russian-hackers-2014/136683/

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2017/04/incident_respon_1.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jasonleopold/he-solved-the-dnc-hack-now-hes-telling-his-story-for-the?utm_term=.ldB8J07EBe#.egXw3nkGKr

Trump kicked the Islamic world in the teeth today, and loved doing it.

 

"President Trump said Thursday that U.S. aid to the Palestinians won't continue until they're willing to "sit down and negotiate peace."

At a bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr. Trump said that the Palestinians "disrespected" the U.S. a week ago by not allowing Vice President Mike Pence to see them on his trip to the Middle East. He suggested, therefore, the aid money is on the table.

"This was never brought up by any negotiators," Trump said, "But it's brought up by me."

Mr. Trump alluded to his decision in December to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's official capital, breaking the U.S.'s longstanding policy that the city's final status should be determined by peace negotiations.

"We took Jerusalem off the table so we don't have to talk about it anymore," he said Thursday. "What I did with Jerusalem was my honor.""

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As I have written before Trump is a total disaster in the ME.  He has no policy other than that of the extreme nationalist right in Israel.  He is evidently completely in thrall to his daughter and her Zionist husband.  Perhaps his toady behavior toward Israel is a combination of that influence and a desire to suck up to all the people in New York City who treated him with contempt and hostility for many years.

He told the world today, while sitting next to his soul mate Bibi that the Palestinians are not truly human, have no human rights and that he has "taken Jerusalem off the table" so that the Palestinians will have to settle for some portion of the Holy Land allotted to them by Bibi and company.

He took the Holy City off the table?  Who gave this man the right to do such a thing?  pl 

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-holds-bilateral-meeting-with-netanyahu-at-davos-live-stream/

Clausewitz would approve ...

"This map provides a general look at the military situation in the area of Abu al-Duhur. The Syrian Arab Army and its allies have been working to secure their recent gains in eastern Idlib, including the town of Abu al-Duhur and the Abu al-Duhur airbase. As soon as this is done, government forces will be able to clear the remaining militant-held pocket in northeastern Hama."  sf

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A few days ago I wrote that the SAA and friends should be careful not to charge impetuously forward into Idlib Province west of Abu Duhur until the situation in the east Idlib pocket is cleaned up and the force has enough time to recover its logistics and to rest the troops.  My judgment was and is that the sustained exertions of the SAA has brought the SAA and allies to a Clausewitzian "culminating point." and that further immediate major advances although they might succeed would require a level of risk that is unnecessary.  A brief pause for consolidation and reconstitution of the victorious force is wise.

At the same time  a different and smaller SAA force will begin an advance from SW Aleppo Province toward the besieged Shia villages just north of Idlib City.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/25jan_Abu_al-Duhur_Operation_Syria_War_Map.jpg?x76537

 

"BOOK 7  •  CHAPTER 5

Culminating Point of the Attack

THE success of the attack is the result of a present superiority of force, it being understood that the moral as well as physical forces are included. In the preceding chapter we have shown that the power of the attack gradually exhausts itself; possibly at the same time the superiority may increase, but in most cases it diminishes. The assailant buys up prospective advantages which are to be turned to account hereafter in negotiations for peace; but, in the meantime, he has to pay down on the spot for them a certain amount of his military force. If a preponderance on the side of the attack, although thus daily diminishing, is still maintained until peace is concluded, the object is attained.—There are strategic attacks which have led to an immediate peace—but such instances are rare; the majority, on the contrary, lead only to a point at which the forces remaining are just sufficient to maintain a defensive, and to wait for peace.—Beyond that point the scale turns, there is a reaction; the violence of such a reaction is commonly much greater than the force of the blow. This we call the culminating point of the attack.— As the object of the attack is the possession of the enemy's territory, it follows that the advance must continue till the superiority is exhausted; this cause, therefore, impels us towards the ultimate object, and may easily lead us beyond it.—If we reflect upon the number of the elements of which an equation of the forces in action is composed, we may conceive how difficult it is in many cases to determine which of two opponents has the superiority on his side. Often all hangs on the silken thread of imagination.

Everything then depends on discovering the culminating point by the fine tact of judgment. Here we come upon a seeming contradiction. The defence is stronger than the attack; therefore we should think that the latter can never lead us too far, for as long as the weaker form remains strong enough for what is required, the stronger form ought to be still more so."  Clausewitz 

http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/OnWar1873/BK7ch05.html#a

HARPER: IS THIS FISC DOCUMENT PART OF THE NUNES FILE?

 

On April 26, 2017, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) Judge Rosemary Collyer issued a 99-page ruling, spelling out the conditions under which American citizens could be placed under electronic surveillance and the records retained by the FBI, the CIA, the NSA and the NCTC (National Counter-Terrorism Center). 

According to former NSA official William Binney, the document goes well-beyond former provisions for tracking of American citizens whose email or phone records were obtained in authorized surveillance of foreign national targets of American counterintelligence operations. 

While the FISC ruling was originally classified TOP SECRET/SI/ORCON/NOFORN, it was declassified some time after its original release.  The ruling has taken on special significance as it appears to be part of the file of classified material reviewed by Representative Devon Nunes, which led him to write his own classified summary of the evidence that the Obama Administration, the FBI, the CIA and other agencies of government conspired against Donald Trump, from before he won the Republican nomination for President, through his campaign, the post-election transition and into his first year as President. 

Indeed, the ruling by Judge Collyer was the culmination of the prolonged court proceeding dating back to November 6, 2015, when the initial application was filed with the FISA Court for authorization to capture and retain records on specific American citizens.  The publicly released copy of the 99-page ruling was redacted to remove all references to specific individuals, but was based on affidavits filed with the Court by NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers, FBI Director James Comey, CIA Director William Brennan and NCTC Director Nicholas Rasmussen. 

In the coming days, a critical fight will play out in Congress, where House Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Nunes is attempting to win Congressional approval to declassify his four-page summary memo, reportedly detailing the collusion among law enforcement and intelligence officials to stop Donald Trump from assuming the presidency—what star-crossed FBI lovers Peter Strzok and Lisa Page called “the insurance policy” in one of their now infamous text messages. 

The FISC ruling has been blown out of proportion by some of the more extremis alt-right allies of President Trump, who claimed it had been leaked (the redacted text is posted on the website of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence) exclusively to Alex Jones.  But the content, as analyzed by William Binney, speaks for itself and clearly forms part of the backdrop to the unfolding war of narratives between Rep. Nunes and the ranking Democrat on the HSCI, Adam Schiff.  It stands on its own and is worthwhile reading for anyone who is closely following this political battle royal. 

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/icotr/51117/2016_Cert_FISC_Memo_Opin_Order_Apr_2017.pdf 

Afrin Update - TTG

It’s damned difficult to figure out what’s happening with Operation Olive Branch since both, or I should say all, sides are expending considerable energy in controlling the narrative. In other words we are wading through a pond of bullshit.

The Turks and their FSA allies appear to have made slow progress into Afrin over the last few days. The YPG has also been able to launch a few successful counterattacks, but the weight of Turkish air and artillery strikes will inevitably take its toll. One YPG action I found significant was an attack at Daret Izza in the southwest corner of Afrin Canton. This is close to the a main Turkish entry point into Idlib Canton and the location of a Turkish military base. Time will tell if this is a forlorn hope or not.

The most significant development is the widening of the Turkish attacks beyond Afrin to the rest of the Turkish-Rojava border. Several of these artillery and air strikes are quite close to the CJTF-OIR bases near Qamishli and Kobani. Turkish troops and armor are also massing along this border. My guess is that Turkey’s ambition extends far beyond Afrin. Militarily that makes sense, but it definitely increases the pucker factor among all the players. All this while the CENTCOM Commander, General Votel, was visiting Raqqa telling the world the US was going to be in Syria for the forseeable future. Well, what are you going to do now, Ranger?

Here’s a few excerpts from the coverage of the developing situation.

TTG

*********************

On January 22, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) opened a new front against Kurdish militias east of Afrin and captured Birsaya Mount. This mount overlooks the town of Sharanli and the northeastern flank of Afrin. However, by the evening Turkey-led forces retreated from it after the FSA had abandoned its positions due to a YPG counter-attack.

On January 23, the TAF and the FSA launched another advance on Birsaya Mount. If they are able to secure it, Turkish forces will likely advance on Sharanli and then make an attempt to link with its positions in Ash Shaykh Khurus where they had achieved notable progress.

According to Turkish media, 6,400 service members are involved in Ankara’s military operation in Afrin.  (SouthFront)

*********************

BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:30 A.M.) [23 Jan] – Minutes ago, the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) launched a surprise assault on the rebel stronghold of Daret ‘Izza in west Aleppo.

According to a local report from Aleppo, the YPG forces attacked Daret ‘Izza from its western axis, capturing a number of points near the Sama’an Castle. Intense clashes are still ongoing at the moment, as the YPG remains on the offensive in Daret ‘Izza.

The YPG offensive at Daret ‘Izza comes just hours after the Turkish-led Euphrates Shield forces attempted to capture the historical Mount Simeon, which is located northwest of the rebel stronghold.  (Al Masdar News)

*********************

BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:20 A.M.) [24 Jan] – The Turkish Army and their rebel allies launched another big assault in the Afrin Canton, Tuesday, targeting the northern part of this important region in northern Aleppo. According to pro-opposition media, the Turkish Army and their allies began the day by recapturing the town of Adamanli and its surrounding hilltops.

Following the capture of Adamanli, the Turkish Army and their allies managed to capture town of ‘Umar Ushagi near the Rajou axis in the northern part of the Afrin Canton. The Turkish Armed Forces would end the day by recapturing the strategic mountaintop of Jabal Barsaya after a fierce battle with the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG).  (Al Masdar News)

*********************

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-january-23-2018-u-s-proposes-turkey-to-establish-security-zone-in-afrin/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-forces-capture-several-areas-northern-afrin-fierce-battle-ypg-map/

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/01/turkish-forces-claim-victory-syrian-kurds-afrin.html

Evidence of FBI Conspiracy Grows by Publius Tacitus

The latest news about the FBI--e.g., they apparently lost 5 months of text messages between star FBI au lovers, Strzok-Page texts, perhaps 50,000--points to incompetence or malfeasance and coverup. I go with the latter.

The dates of the missing texts are the key tell--14 December 2016 thru 17 May 2017. Pay particular attention to the 14 December date in light of what we now know about the Dossier prepared/written by British spy Christopher Steele. Please reference my previous piece on the Dossier timeline:

18. 13 December 2016, Christopher Steele prepares, on his own, the 17th report in the dossier and sends it to Senator McCain via David Kramer.

Here are the key highlights of that report:

2016/166--13 December 2016-- US/RUSSIA: FURTHER DETAILS OF SECRET DIALOGUE BETWEEN TRUMP CAMPAIGN TEAM, KREMLIN AND ASSOCIATED HACKERS IN PRAGUE

SOURCES: Blacked out/Not Identified

Schumer lost bigly ...

 

I am told that what broke Schumer was the polling evidence over the weekend that this time the Democrats were not well supported by he American people in shutting down the government over the fate of the DACA registrants, a question that was already under bi-partisan negotiation and one in which DJT had publicly asked Congress to send him a bill to sign that contained both a solution on that issue and provisions to toughen immigration and border security standards.

It appears that the Negotiator in Chief won this round by waiting the Democrats out and that Senate Majority Leader McConnell led his side to victory.

It was clear to me from the distribution of the Democratic Party vote that the Left is seeking more than permanent legal status for present DACA registrants.  IMO  they are seeking a general further relaxation of immigration law and continuation of visa lotteries, chain migration and the like in the belief that for them, the more immigrants from poor countries, the better since they believe that in eventual future amnesties such people will gain citizenship and will vote Democratic.  pl

“Commence Operation Olive Branch,” said the spider to the fly - TTG

The Turkish Army’s General Staff announced in an official statement that the Turkish Army launched “Operation Olive Branch” against Kurdish militias in the Afrin area in the Syrian province of Aleppo at 14:00GMT on January 20.

“‘Operation Olive Branch’ has been started on Jan. 20, 2018 at 5 p.m., in Syria’s northwestern Afrin region to establish security and stability on our borders and region, to eliminate terrorists of PKK/KCK/PYD-YPG and Daesh [ISIS], and to save our friends and brothers… from their oppression and cruelty,” the General Staff said in its official statement.”

The military also stressed that “Operation Olive Branch” is conducted under “the framework of Turkey’s rights based on international law” and within Turkey’s right of “self-defense”.

Later, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed that Turkey informed the Damascus government of its military operation in Afrin area with a written statement before it was launched in a rare diplomatic connection between the two sides.

“We have informed all parties, including the UN,” Cavusoglu added, according to the Russian state-run news agency Sputnik.

From it side, the Ministry of Defense of Russia announced in a statement that it is relocating Russian troops deployed in Afrin to insure their safety during the Turkish military operation.

“The command of the Russian group of troops in Syria has taken measures to ensure the security of Russian servicemen located in the district of Afrin, where the Turkish Armed Forces launched a special operation against the Kurdish armed groups,” the statement reads.

The Russians also said that the US supplies of advance weapons to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria triggered Turkey’s military operation against the Kurdish militias in Afrin.

“Uncontrolled deliveries of modern weapons, including reportedly the deliveries of the man-portable air defense systems, by the Pentagon to the pro-US forces in northern Syria, have contributed to the rapid escalation of tensions in the region and resulted in the launch of a special operation by the Turkish troops,” the ministry said. (SouthFront)

********************************

Apparently Moscow gave the green light to Ankara to commence their “Operation Olive Branch” and has moved Russian troops out of harm’s way in Afrin. Erdogan undoubtedly is salivating at the dreams of a new Ottoman Empire and ridding himself of those bothersome Kurds. 

However, I am firmly convinced that he is being played by Putin. The Afrin Kurds will be bloodied. The Rojava Kurds will eventually come to realize that their US-organized border protection force is no match for the might of the Turkish military. The Russians are admonishing the Kurds that their decision to put their faith in whatever CENTCOM has planned for them is a poor decision. Once the Kurds realize this and appeal to the R+6 for protection, Moscow will tell Ankara to cease Operation Olive Branch and offer a face saving way for them to do so. The SAA will assume control of the northern border and all of Syria east of the Euphrates will return to Damascus’ control. The Kurds will retain some kind of local autonomy in exchange for coming to their senses. The borg will not know whether to shit or go blind.

TTG

https://southfront.org/turkish-army-announces-start-of-operation-olive-branch-in-afrin-russia-relocates-troops-from-area/

Idlib Province and the Culminating Point of an operation.

Long ago and 200 miles away I was a student at the US Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania.  This arguably is the oldest post in the Army.  It was a British Army post created on the Pennsylvania frontier during the Seven Years War.  Just before I arrived there the War College had been so lucky as to have a Commandant who was actually a military intellectual.  He fostered the study of operational theory at the strategic level and in the course of doing that, hired Michael Handel the great Israeli/American Clausewitz scholar. Handel was my faculty adviser and once we got past the usual teacher/student crap we had many grand discussions to which IMO I contributed something, anything will do in memory.

Under his guidance I undertook with a couple of others a study on "culminating points" in operations, whether tactical, operational or strategic.  They are all the same thing really.  The paper is linked below.

As is implied above in the blurb from operations theory, the culminating point of an offensive operation is reached when the attacking force's resources of  guns, ammunition, food, fatigue and sheer spirit are outweighed by resources of the enemy that just simply are greater than yours.  This is quite different from a tipping point, evidently a point at which your position begins to collapse.

If you are on "offense," you should calibrate  your plan so that you reach your objective just as you reach the culminating point.   If it happens that you must continue past the culminating point in order to reach your objective than you must remember that the farther out in from of your culminating point you go, the more vulnerable you are and the more subject you are to a sudden and catastrophic reversal of fortune though an attack when you are in a weakened state.

In Syria, just now,  the R+6 and specifically the government aligned ground forces are spread from the Euphrates Valley to the Golan Heights Front with a lot of small commitments in between.  The forces in action in the East Idlib pocket fight are finite in number.  As the fight progresses they will inevitably grow weaker until there is a chance for reinforcement, rest and refit/resupply.

If they charge impetuously forward toward Idlib City a great risk will occur.  

Take your time.  Take your time.  pl 

 http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/10/

http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/parameters/Articles/1985/1985%20lang%20hennessee%20bush.pdf

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

Collective Punishment of Palestinians Won’t Lead to Peace Talks-- Decameron

photo from UNRWA, Gaza war, 2014

 

“The Trump administration sent notice to UNRWA that it is withholding over half of this year’s annual commitment, paying $60 million and freezing another $65 million. The move indicates the U.S. is leveraging its hefty payments to the United Nations Refugee Works Agency (UNRWA) to pressure Palestinian officials” to open negotiations with the Netanyahu government. (Mondoweiss)

Trump is cutting off UNRWA, one of the most important agencies in all the world for the survival of children in occupied Palestine.  It supplies medicine, potable water, food, clothing. Its facilities have been hit by Israeli air power again and again in the various Gaza wars and air strikes.  Israel says its strikes are collateral damage, or that UNRWA was being used as “human shields” for terrorists.  Israel’s war tactics against civilians are not collateral; they are collective punishment, and Trump is doing the same with the cutoff of funds to the UNRWA.  The argument that this will pressure the Palestinians to the bargaining table is nonsense. More countries in the region are distrusting the Trump Administration after this. President Mahmoud Abbas and the PLO have hardened their positions—they see nothing left to negotiate. Collective punishment will not lead to the negotiating table, and Trump's actions are backfiring.  

The overwhelming majority of the world’s nations condemned Trump’s announcement that he’s moving the US embassy to Jerusalem in order to take “Jerusalem off the table,” to help start peace talks between Israel and Palestine.  Then when the UN Security Council didn’t kowtow to the great Jerusalem announcement, Nikki Haley fumed that the UN “risks” seeing a massive cut in funds if it condemns Trump’s latter day Balfour Declaration (reminder: that was a short note to a super-rich Rothschild, not a diplomatic document).  Trump threatened to cut off funds to any country that opposed his move to Jerusalem.  Now, the cutoff of UNRWA money.  Trump’s UNRWA policy is revenge, not negotiations.  The champion of the “Art of the Deal” is digging himself a deepening hole.

East Idlib Pocket - 19 January, 2017

 

 "On January 19, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed up by the Russian Aerospace Forces, captured the village of Qaital west of Umm Salasil in southwestern Aleppo, according to the Hezbollah media wing in Syria.

Currently, only one village – Umm Tinah – separates the SAA in the southwestern Aleppo countryside from the Tiger Forces’ positions around the Abu Duhur airbase in the eastern Idlib countryside. Once Umm Tinah is captured by the SAA, members of ISIS and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) remaining in the northeastern Hama countryside will be besieged by the SAA and its allies from all directions.

Meanwhile, the pro-government blog al-Masdar News reported that the 128th Brigade of the Republican Guard has been redeployed from the Qalamun Mountains to the southeastern Idlib countryside in order to reinforce the Tiger Forces there.

The Republican Guard’s 128th Brigade will likely take part in the final assault on the Abu Duhur airbase that should begin once the SAA reaches the airbase from the eastern and northern directions.

From its side, HTS and its allies have not conducted any notable defensive operations against the SAA recently. This could mean that the armed groups are again preparing for another large counter-attack against the SAA and its allies in southern Idlib or Aleppo." SF

-------------------

Looks like R+6 is going to close the mouth of the bag.  IMO that is not the best practice in this situation.  If they do that the surrounded HTS/IS force (increasingly the same thing due to defections) will form a hedgehog defense and fight until they run out of ammunition and suicide bombers.  That will cost R+6 more men and materiel than necessary.

I hope that a lot of air is applied to reduce the cost to R+6.  "Nape and nails" (napalm and high drag fragmentation bombs) are an excellent response to troops in these open farmlands.  Strategic air with thermobaric ordnance would be another.  pl  

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-tightens-siege-on-abu-al-duhur-airbase-militants-in-northeastern-hama/

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 18 JANUARY 2018

NOTE: THis will be the last until April -- I'm off soon on a cruise all around South America.

 

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. I believe that we are approaching the exposure of the plot. Some reading to bring you up to speed. The conspiracy explained (part of it actually – there were other players. MSM too). Happenings: 1) documents 2) interviews of principals 3) reborn investigations of e-mails and Clinton Foundation. First charges laid in Uranium One (an American charged with bribing a Russian too!). Today's step. The Dossier is central to the conspiracy. I reiterate: there was no Russian government involvement in the US election; there was no Russian government collusion with Trump. It was a story invented to support a conspiracy against Trump and then an attempt to cover up the conspiracy when, in the destruction of the plotters' expectations, he was elected. This is very big.

HEALTH. The Minister has provided some statistics that show the steady improvement in Russians' health. For the first 11 months of 2017, the death rate decreased by about 3% with a considerable drop in deaths by alcohol poisoning (16%). Infant mortality continued its steady decline and so the population increases from each end. In the last five years, alcohol consumption dropped a lot as has smoking; meanwhile exercise rates are up. The overall effect is an increase in life expectancy: now put at 72.6 years for men and 77 years for women. It seems that Russians are more optimistic about the future and less depressed by the present. This further strengthens my belief that Russia is poised to take off in a way that it never has before.

GOLD. Russia has bought quite a lot of gold (and maybe more than it's telling us). Photos from the gold vaults. I wonder if China will show its hoard.

RUSSIA INC. Growth of 1.7% and inflation down to 2.5% last year. In comparison the EU's growth forecast was 1.7% but they're now saying 2.2%; the USA's was 3.2%. But here are different figures with USA 2.2%. But, anyway, considering sanctions and so on, that's not bad.

RUSSIAN BASES IN SYRIA ATTACKED. On the night of 5/6 January the Russian bases at Khmeimim and Tartus (Syria) were attacked by 13 UAVs, 10 at the former. The aircraft were armed with mortar bombs. Seven were shot down, six were hacked of which three of which were safely landed. The aircraft themselves were fairly crude but the navigation systems and other electronics were quite sophisticated. The attack was launched from the de-escalation zone in Idlib. On the 12th in a complicated operation involving special forces, artillery with smart munitions and air reconnaissance, the MoD says the people responsible were killed and the depot destroyed (videos). Plenty of rumours of course: a US reconnaissance aircraft was said to be in the area; the Pentagon denies involvement; Putin said it wasn't Ankara. Certainly the air defences showed their ability – especially by taking over six of the UAVs and bringing three to a soft landing. So, if the US was involved (and who knows what's going on in Washington's idiotic and incoherent activities there?) then it discovered that Russian air defences are formidable. (They will only be strengthened – this was an all round learning experience.)

BEEDO! BEEDO! BEEDO! A rather ridiculous publicity video showing the USAF bravely intercepting two Russian fighters flying from Russia to Russia along the very restricted international air corridor in the Baltic. The US side claims the Russians did not "did not broadcast the appropriate codes required by air traffic control and had no flight plan on file". The Russians say they did. I remind readers that it was NATO that rejected a Russo-Finnish proposal that all aircraft fly with their transponders on.

SANCTIONS FOR THEE BUT NOT FOR ME. A Russian company has signed to launch 12 Dove-series satellites for an American company.

KOREA. As Churchill observed, jaw-jaw is better than war-war and we're getting talking in Korea. One assumes Beijing is somewhere in the background. Moscow and Beijing are coordinating their efforts. Much, if not most, is hidden and consumers of the MSM would be astounded to hear that President Moon gives Trump some of the credit.

THE TRUMP EFFECT. Whether I, Korybko or the Saker has got it right, things are changing and "America First" is making other countries wonder where they fit in. Doctorow observes, others bemoan, but it's happening.

FANTASIA UKRAINIA. There are no nazis in Ukraine. And, if there are, there aren't many of them. And if many, they have little influence. If influential there, then nowhere else. Never mind: 25 December is now a holiday and Hallowe'en is making progress so all is well. (This fatuous piece savaged here).

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Drifting sands: America's strategy in Syria

By Patrick BAHZAD

As the war in Syria is entering a new phase, the US will have to deal with issues that will prove very difficult to incorporate into a single comprehensive strategy.    

There was an eerie sense of déjà vu about yesterday's statement by Secretary of State Tillerson. The kind of same old, same old speech about issues, challenges and threats, not necessarily related, and grand objectives of US foreign policy. But the most basic question as to what the United States wants to do with Syria, and what it wants for the Middle-East in general, remained unanswered. Obviously, it doesn't take a genius to figure out this administration is on course for containment and roll back of Iranian influence in the region. But wishful thinking and circumstantial alliances with unreliable partners don't make a strategy, they just make up a recipe for yet another disaster.

War in Syria has entered a new, decisive phase, that much is clear. The so-called "Islamic State" has been defeated as a political entity, in Syria as well as in Iraq. And, as could also be expected, it has already started to morph back into an insurgency, alas of global proportions this time, and will soon re-emerge not just in the Middle-East, but in areas where we didn't encounter its black banner before. The ambush that targeted American Special Forces in Mali, in late 2017, bears testimony to this trend.

Jihad Incorporated is expanding, despite the massive blow it was dealt in Mosul and Raqqa. The costs of the military operations against IS are high though, and there will be a price to pay for the way local forces conducted operations. Huge refugee camps have been established. Cities were levelled to the ground. Reconstruction is in tatters. This is a fertile breeding ground for any insurgency and the Jihadi shape shifters will try and take advantage of those circumstances.

Leave the mouth of the bag open.

 

"Overnight on January 17, ISIS units attacked positions of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies south of the Abu al-Duhur airbase from the eastern direction aiming to reach the key village of Sinjar.

Initially, anti-government sources claimed that ISIS had been able to capture some points from the SAA, but these claims were not confirmed by any photo or video evidence yet. Later, the ISIS-linked news agency Amaq confirmed that the advance took place and said that ISIS had captured some positions in the area.

Right now, clashes are ongoing there. Thus, ISIS and “moderate opposition” groups attacking the SAA from the western direction de-facto cooperate against government forces in eastern Idlib."  SF

--------

Well, pilgrims, R+6 should think of this as an opportunity rather than a setback.    Here we have IS (now largely ex FSA unicorns) and HTS cooperating against R+6 in counter-attacks against the nearly complete envelopment east of Sinjar.

A possible program seriatim:

1.  Defeat the counter-attacks.  Fight hard.

2.  Don't close the mouth of the bag in the encirclement.

3.  Push on the sides of the "bag" to get IS and HTS moving toward a hope of escape in Idlib.

4.  Pound the "escapees" mercilessly with air and artillery.

5.  Be happy in your work.  pl  

https://southfront.org/isis-attacks-syrian-army-south-of-abu-al-duhur-airbase-seeks-to-reach-sinjar-map/

Turkish/Kurdish war imminent?

 

"The expected Turkish military operation against Kurdish militants in northern Syria may be expanded to other areas, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on January 16.

“Turkey’s precautions against YPG/PKK cannot be limited to only Afrin. There is also Manbij and east of the Euphrates River,” Cavusoglu said following the meeting with his US counterpart Rex Tillerson in Vancouver, Canada

He also emphasized that the US plan to establish a 30,000-strong border guard force composed of US-backed, Kurdish-dominated forces in northwest Syria “irreversibly harms US-Turkey ties”.

The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) are the main concern of Ankara that describes them as terrorist organizations linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK is a militant separatist organization has a long history of combating the Ankara government. It actively operates in southern Turkey and northern Iraq. One of the PKK goals is to establsih an independent Kurdish state that will claim a part of the Turkish territory.

On January 14, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ankara will launch a military opeartion in Afrin controlled by the YPG “in the coming days” to secure the southern border of Turkey."  SF

--------------

It appears that the US military (Mattis, McMaster, Dunford and CENTCOM) have once again made a major mistake in trying to manage Middle Eastern relations and planning.  This mistake is to believe that the US has a great deal more leverage and sheer control than it really has.  Somehow the generals believe that when they snap their fingers all the "little people" in the region will roll over and play "rub my belly" like puppies.

Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister has now made it clear that Turkey intends to attack the Afrin Kurdish pocket NW of Aleppo to eliminate what Sultan Tayyip Erdogan call the "terror army."  He has also made it clear that YPG/SDF held territory around Manbij to the east and ALL Kurdish held territory EAST of the Euphrates will also be Turkish objectives.  Apparently all this was said to CJCS while he was visiting Ankara in the last few days.

We should be understood that ALL the Syrian Kurds will perceive this aggression as directed at them all and that they will expect CENTCOM to support them against the Turks.  CENTCOM has already announced through a spokesman that the US will not support the Afrin pocket Kurds.  I suppose that this is because those Kurds have never been willing to accept US "advice."

IMO the notion that the 30,000 fighter "Border Force" has always been seen by the SDF/YPG people as intended to defend against Turkey and not to permanently exclude the SAG from Syria east of the Euphrates.  That idea was yet another American delusion.

Well, pilgrims, you are about to see US Kurdish policy fall apart.  pl  

https://southfront.org/foreign-minister-turkish-military-operation-against-kurdish-militias-cannot-be-limited-to-only-afrin/

Open Thread - 16 January 2016

Flu all around, lying low.  pl

There is a lot of water ice on Mars

 

" ... in late 2016, scientists using the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) found a buried ice sheet at Mars’s mid-latitudes that holds about as much water as Lake Superior. But until Dundas’s study, published today in Science, scientists struggled to understand the extent and accessibility of Mars’s subsurface ice layers.

The eight sites featured in the new study include steep banks where, much like cutting into a cake, erosion has exposed layers of rock and ice that MRO could see from overhead. The bands of ice first appear between three and six feet underground, supporting the notion that Mars’s mid-latitudes periodically saw large snowfalls millions of years ago, when Mars was tilted on its axis at a steeper angle than it is today, says Dundas." National Geographic

-----------

I don't see any Martians in these pictures, but this greatly increases the chance that humans can colonize Mars.  The great majority of my forebears were among the colonizers of  the New World and so I suppose I have a natural inclination toward the prospect of human colonization of Barsoom.  We need to get some of us off this world so that our descendants can see Terra in the rear view mirror and think of this planet as the place where we began.  pl

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/mars-buried-water-ice-subsurface-geology-astronauts-science/

TDS will not be entertained on SST

We receive a few proposed comments on SST from leftists who want me to allow them to use SST as a platform for rants against Trump that are based on nothing but their TDS religious beliefs.  These will not be posted.  Come up with proofs rather than hysterical accusations and I might be interested.  pl

Idlib update - 14 january 2017

" This map provides a general look at the current results of the Syrian Army’s advance in eastern Idlib, northern Hama and southern Aleppo. Government forces have liberated a large number of villages in the aforementioned areas and now are working to clear the militant-held pocket northwest of Khanasir. Seprately, the Tiger Forces are working to repel counter-attacks by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and to establish control over the strategic Abu al-Duhur airbase."  SF

--------------

 This is impressive stuff.  R+6 are carving up the Greater Idlib Pocket like a Thanksgiving turkey.  I see that a spokesman for the Kurdish SDF/YPG says that Kurdish forces will enter Idlib to participate in the destruction of HTS and friends.  It seems clear to me that the Kurds will fight on the government side if they enter the fight in Idlib.   This must really be a disppointment to CENTCOM.  pl 

https://southfront.org/map-update-current-results-of-syrian-armys-advance-in-eastern-idlib-northern-hama-and-southern-aleppo/

HARPER: THE ECONOMICS OF DOMESTIC BASE CLOSINGS

In March 2015, the Pentagon asked Congress to establish a new Base Realignment and Closing (BRAC) commission.  It would be the fifth time since 1988 that a significant number of domestic military facilities were shuttered.  In New York State alone, 32 bases have been closed down in the previous rounds, including major facilities like the Brooklyn Navy Station, Griffiss Air Force Base and Stewart Air Force Base.  In Massachusetts, 19 bases have been closed to date,including Fort Devens, and Otis Air Force Base on Cape Cod.  BRAC proponents cite significant savings to the Pentagon budget, even after the 2005 BRAC shutdowns and realignments cost $35.1 billion, with a 67 percent cost over-run.

New York and Massachusetts are two states that have, for the most part, willingly gone along with the base closings, oblivious to the deep economic consequences to many communities that were effectively wiped out by the removal of the military facilities.  In New York, one of the prime targets of the 2017 push for further base closures is Fort Drum in Jefferson County, home of the 10th Mountain Division.  Local businesses and citizens groups are already mobilized to prevent the shutdown, and some impressive statistics buttress their case.  It is estimated that the shutdown of Fort Drum would result in a loss of $1.6 billion from the local economy, the loss of 20,000 residents, a full 1/3 of the population of Jefferson County.  One large school district in the county would lose 70 percent of its student body.

The same story is to be heard all over the country.  What's more, at the same time that the domestic base closings are proceeding, the U.S. military footprint abroad is expanding.  According to American University professor David Vine, there are presently 800 American military bases abroad, in 70 countries, with an annual cost of $160-200 billion, including American theaters of combat--Iraq and Afghanistan. Recent Pentagon studies of the need to devise a "third offset strategy" to address the increased vulnerabilities of American military bases around the globe raise further questions about the viability of the current military posture.

If the domestic economic consequences of the closing of military facilities that are sometimes the largest employers in areas of the country, already beset by departures of industry for cheaper offshore locations, are not taken into account by Pentagon bean counters looking to reduce the DOD budget, it is a fools errand at best.  The result is real human suffering in distressed parts of the country that have proudly housed America's fighting men and women for decades and, in some cases, for centuries.

I welcome comments.

A coupla things ...

1.  A couple of Border Patrol/ICE people tell me that the US does not effectively charge an entry fee to non-US citizen individuals seeking to enter the US legally across the southern border.  The point made by these border and immigration professionals is that the money would enable the construction and installation of more and better border barrier systems.  They make the point that where border barrier systems have been installed the flow of illegal migrants is much reduced.  Mexico evidently collects such a fee in the San Diego sector.  My question for the lawyers is whether or not such a fee would be legal if put in place under an EO or would this require legislation?

2.  We now have had Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS),  Clinton Derangement Syndrome (CDS),  Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS),  and United States Derangement Syndrome (USDS).  I propose yet another Derangement Syndrome.  This would be the Russia/Iran Derangement Syndrome (RIDS).  In this syndrome now prominent on both sides of the political divide, the Russia of Pushkin, Turgenev, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, etc. disappears to be replaced altogether by Ivan the Terrible, Lenin, Stalin and the Soviet Union writ large to condemn Russia in our minds to the status of crafty inherently hostile barbarians.   Well, pilgrims, maybe it ain't so!  Ukraine?  Are we really solidly behind a coup generated government of Nazi sympathizers in Kiev?  Are we really?  Is there really evidence that Russian Army troops are fighting in eastern Ukraine?  Is there? Or is this claim just another example of Borgist (foreign policy establishment) information operations?  Do we still remember that the Crimea was for centuries an integral part of Russia, not the Ukraine, until Khruschev, a Ukrainian, arbitrarily gave Crimea to the Ukraine.  The Russians took it back?  What a surprise.  What a surprise!  That doesn't fit with the "rules based world order?"  Well, maybe there is something wrong with the rules that the Borg loves so much.  Russia intervened in Syria to prevent a  jihadi/Gulfy/Israeli/US handover of the country to the grip of a salafi satrapi of Saudi Arabia?  Well, God bless them!

3. The Borg evidently thinks it bestrides the world as the standard bearer of the aforementioned "rules," commanding from the imperial capital on the Tiber/Potomac.  A reminder of this "thought," is the statement today in the corporate media that the US "ordered" Soleimani, the IRGC Quds force commander (foreign interventions) not to leave Iran and he has had the effrontery to visit Moscow.  Tell me pilgrims, what is the sense of such a statement.  How is Soleimani a terrorist?  He carries out his country's foreign policy as do our people for US policy.  His men worked with Iraqi insurgents to fight us during our adventure in country building?  Mathis, McMaster and all that crew are so deeply embittered by war that they cannot see the foolishness of that?  They should grow up.  "We fought them and they fought us."  Germany, Japan, Spain, etc.?  Come on!  Grow up!

4.  Pelosi appears to me to be demented.

5.  "Shithole?"  Well, SWMBO and I have lived and visited in many a "shithole."  Haiti, Salvador, Yemen, and any number of African dumps closely resemble that description.  Rude?  Yes, certainly, but he is the "hard hat" president.  IMO most Americans agree with him on this. 

6.  A lot of the newer, younger people on Foxnews' air appear to be making their reportage into the new CNN.  pl

The Trump Dossier Timeline, A Democrat Disaster Looming by Publius Tacitus

When the entire episode about the creation of the Trump dossier (by former Brit spy, Christopher Steele) and its dissemination (by Steele and the Democrat hired contractor, FUSION GPS,) to the FBI and the press, is fully exposed, the American people will be confronted with the stark dilemma of how to deal with the fact that there was a failed domestic coup attempted by members of the U.S. intel and law enforcement community. The facts will show that the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the CIA and the FBI conspired and meddled in the 2016 Presidential election. They lied to a Federal judge about the origins of the dossier and used those lies to get permission to spy on Trump and members of his campaign staff.

Here are the facts as we know them now. (Please note, these facts are sourced and are not my opinion).

Well, no one thought the Turks were subtle ... And I like Turks.

 

"Turkey called on Russia and Iran to pressure the Syrian government to halt a military offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) in the province of Idlib.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Russia and Iran must fulfill their “responsibilities” under a joint agreement reached with Turkey in 2017. He added that the ongoing advance would not be possible without support of Russia and Iran.

Under the agreement, the three countries announced a “de-escalation zone” in Idlib. Thus, Turkey, Iran, Russia became guarantors of the agremeent in the area.

“Iran and Russia need to carry out their responsibilities. If you are guarantors, which you are, stop the regime,” Cavusoglu told the state-run Anadolu news agency.

Unfortunately, Cavusoglu forgot to added that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a terrorist group and excluded from the ceasefire agrement. But, who cares, when Ankara sees the operation of the Syrian Army in the area as a threat to its expansionist interests in Syria."  SF

----------

Do Putin and Lavrov really look simple minded enough to allow themselves to be manipulated with scraps of paper and bold-faced ambition driven BS emanating from Ankara?  Do they? 

Turkey's evident ambition to recover as much of Ottoman lands in Syria as possible is pathetically obvious.  pl 

https://southfront.org/turkey-calls-russia-iran-stop-syrian-army-offensive-terrorists-idlib/

But, where is Steiner?

Someone asked me how this blitzkrieg across the agricultural lands of the Fertile Crescent is likely to progress.  It seems that the SAA and friends now are largely in control of the Abu Duhur town and air base area and that a link up with forces advancing to the west from Khanassar is imminent.  After that it will be largely a matter of cleaning up remnants of HTS resistance south of the link up before moving on to the rest of Idlib Province. 

Where IS Steiner?  pl

https://southfront.org/government-forces-impose-fire-control-over-abu-duhur-airbase-hts-fighters-run-away-from-southwestern-aleppo-maps/

"Sterile Chit-Chat" by Richard Sale

 

 “The greatest achievement of human society and one of its rarest pleasures is conversation,” aid Jacque Barzun, an historian who taught at Columbia University when I was there.

Today, who believes such a statement to be true?

Is conversation today the greatest achievement of human society? Fat chance, as they used to say.

Over the holidays, my wife and I went to a small party at a friend’s house. We are very close to the family. One son is becoming a State Dept. intern in Croatia next year.  I was eager to heart him out.

Instead, a mother and her daughter arrived late and the daughter, in her twenties, was eager to hold the floor. The daughter began by saying that she has a sister who moved from South Carolina to somewhere in North Carolina, and then she began a  rambling dissertation about a railway line being developed here in N.C. where my wife and I live. One line was based in Durham, and it was going to run to the airport, but someone contradicted this, saying that it stopped short of the airport, and the daughter went on anyway.  Then she began to talk about some housing program in the state, and there was nothing in what she said that was worth knowing. Clearly, she felt no mercy for her listeners.

Remember, as a member of the group, I did not want to stir up conflict; I only wanted to stir up interest. In  any case, everyone was glassy-eyed when the daughter finished. It was clear we were dealing with a mind of dead sediment and what was needed was an energetic fish to suddenly stir up a momentary disturbance. Alas, there wasn’t one. The sediment soon just settled back to what it was, entirely dead.

In the car after we left, I was nettled.  My wife said to me, “Look -- they were simply ordinary people talking about ordinary things. They have a right to do that.’ I countered by saying, “Fine. But I retain the right not to listen to them,” and quoted Walter Bagehot, the great 19^th century critic who said that “ordinary people use what brains they have, but it usually doesn’t amount to much.”

There was another disheartening incident.

A back handed compliment

  In this this parody of events in Syria, "Hitler" tells his generals that they are being laughed at by Buzzpineapple and the Turcopole.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=CW_VOeMcVWo

OK.  Now Publius Tacitus has found a utube link to the deleted tweet.  pl

The jaws are closing at Abu al-Duhour

 

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the National Defense Forces (NDF), led by units of the Tiger Forces, have liberated a large area from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) in southern Idlib and deployed within only 11km south of the Abu al-Duhur Airbase.

On January 8, the SAA and the NDF liberated over 11 villages from militants, expanding the buffer zone around the recently liberated town of Sinjar and avdancing towards Abu al-Duhur.'  southfront

---------

The R+6 have now broken out of the hills and are advancing across farmland.  The air base at Abu al-Duhur and the cross roads at the same place will be very useful.  11 km. reported to Abu al-Duhur  and 30 km. overall to the northern jaw of government held territory north of reported positions of the Tiger Forces, 4th Mechanized Division and NDF.  Piece of cake!  The government forces west of Khanassar are evidently there to fix HTS in position.

The meeting of the jaws will create another bag full of HTS.  At the same time HTS continues to be attacked by IS forces in the bypassed pocket around Sujur.  Oh, Goody!.  pl 

https://southfront.org/map-update-syrian-army-deploys-in-about-11km-from-abu-al-duhur-airbase-after-major-advances-in-southern-idlib/

"Russiagate" category

Now exists.  pl

Trump Pressures Islamabad - TTG

Last Monday our President kicked off the public phase of his administration’s effort to modify the behavior of Pakistan with his “go to” tool of state power… the tweet.

“The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”

I'm of two minds. Either he's trying to bully Pakistan into doing more against the Taliban and Haqqani Network or he's trying to force them into closing off our access to Afghanistan so we have no choice but to leave. The first possibility is a forlorn hope. The second would be diabolically clever.

Let’s examine the first option. It is consistent with USG policy since 9/11. At that time the Bush administration issued Pakistan an ultimatum. You either assist us in Afghanistan or we will destroy you. Although our objectives in Afghanistan have shifted over the last sixteen years, our nagging complaint that Pakistan is not doing enough to help us has remained constant. I’m sure the Pentagon and Borgists the world over are hoping that Trump’s blustering and bullying style will intimidate Pakistan into submission and, thus, ensuring our ultimate victory in Afghanistan… whatever that entails. 

I don’t see any chance of this working. Yes the money is good, but the constant abuse emanating from Washington has been wearing on leadership in Islamabad and on the Pakistani street. They’re sick of it. Imran Khan, who will probably be the next prime minister in Islamabad, has called for Pakistan to walk away from the US and forge an alliance with China, Russia and Iran. China is certainly willing to take up the slack. They won’t be as generous as the US has been, but the aid will come without the condescending lectures. Russia may be interested. Iran may also be interested just to get us and our coalition out of their backyard. 

How serious is Washington about playing chicken with Islamabad? When Rand Paul suggested that the money would be better spent on US infrastructure, Trump tweeted, “Good idea Rand!” That will be a popular idea for all Americans outside of the Borg. If this idea, and bill, gains traction, it will be hard to walk back. Although Mattis has said he is not worried about Pakistani threats of closing the roads into Afghanistan, he is worried about the closing of Pakistani airspace. That would put our forces and the Afghan army we’re still trying to create in a serious bind. Although our footprint and logistical requirements are smaller than they were years ago, the Afghan army we are creating is highly dependent on a continuous flow of Western military materiel. We no longer have the Manas Air Base as we did when we temporarily lost access to our LOCs in Pakistan in 2010. And, ironically, Russia may not be as willing to bail us out this time. I get the feeling we are trying to play chicken with a bridge abutment.

The other possibility is that Trump truly is diabolically clever and is executing a grand con on the Borg. He may be deliberately steering our current Afghan policy into that bridge abutment so that we are forced to withdraw from the area. He may not be a very stable genius, but he is a first class bullshit artist and skilled con man. That’s what it would take to pull something like this off.

Frankly I don’t care if this is due to a diabolical cleverness or an act worthy of Jubilation T. Cornpone. If it results in the US leaving Afghanistan, I’m all for it.

TTG

Recommended Reading:

US suspends about $2 billion security assistance to Pakistan

US Military Weighs Options In Case Pakistan Blocks Afghan Supply Lines

Pakistan attacks US for cutting military aid

U.S. weighs Pakistani blowback as it piles pressure on Islamabad

Trump cannot afford breaking off ties with Pakistan: NYT

China may be looking to exploit a US move to cut aid to Pakistan

So, the US backed FSA wants to fight the US backed SDF/YPG. Say what?

 "Syrian opposition outlets revealed on January 6 that several commanders of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are currently in the US capital, Washington, to meet with US officials. The visit was not officially announced by the US or any FSA group.

Head of the Political Office of the Mu’tasim Brigade, Mustapha Sejeri, told the Syrian pro-oppositions news outlet ANA Press that the visit is aimed at strengthening the cooperation between the FSA and the US.

Sejeri also revealed that fighting “the Iranian influence in Syria” was the main topic during the meeting between the two sides. The Mu’tasim Brigade official also stressed that the FSA is ready to fight Iran in Syria with support from the USA.

Moreover, Sejeri said that other points were discussed with the American side including foiling the upcoming National Syrian National Dialogue Conference that will be held in the Russian city of Sochi on January 29. The two sides also discussed the outcomes of Geneva Talks, according to Sejeri.

Via Twitter, Sejeri revealed more details and claimed that the FSA and the US also discussed countering the influence of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria. Sejeri’s statement was a shock to many Kurdish activists as the Kurdish dominated force is the main ally of the US in Syria."  SF

------------

 After the US, Israel and the Gulfy potentates incited an Arab Spring style revolt in Syria (amusing considering the nature of the Gulf states), the US undertook to stage manage the delivery of US and European made equipment to defectors from the Syrian armed forces.  A lot of this materiel had been purchased by the Gulf states but since they are collectively and individually incapable of the military art somewhat as Elizabeth I was said to be "incapable of man") the US ran the whole deal using various CIA people and a few military personnel seconded to CIA to train and advise what I have called a "unicorn army," so named because they were always something of an illusion.  These folks failed repeatedly in combat, often surrendered to gathering hordes of actual jihadi rebels and were a great source of weapons and US trained personnel for them.

As time passed, AQ in Syria (now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [HTS]) achieved nearly complete dominance in western Syria and the Unicorn Army became less and less important.  This has been especially true since the commencement of the Russian direct intervention.  Since then the SAA and its allies (R+6) have recaptured most of Syria west of the Euphrates and are just now engaged in carving up HTS like a roasted fowl in Idlib Province. 

At the same time the US military command in Iraq has managed to extend its influence into eastern Syria through the combined Kurd/Arab forces of the SDF/YPG.  How did they do that?  Well, pilgrims, the US Green Berets who write on this site can explain it to you.  It is a question of acceptance of successful local leaders and a willingness to stand with them while not trying to command them. 

So ... why are the unicorn leaders now in Washington being wined and dined and treated as though they are people of substance?  Is there really still a faction of the Borg (foreign policy establishment) who want to continue to back the unicorns against Russian efforts toward reconciliation in Syria and against our SDF/YPG allies?  Really?  pl  

https://southfront.org/free-syrian-army-commanders-visit-washington-reports/

 

Three boosters will return?

 

"Musk means that if the launch fails, the Falcon Heavy, currently standing at the Florida launch pad where Apollo astronauts began the first journey to the moon, could end up in a massive explosion over the Atlantic Ocean. 

"There's a lot of risk associated with Falcon Heavy," Musk said at a conference in 2017. "Real good chance that the vehicle doesn't make it to orbit." "  cnet.com

--------------

 Now THIS will be a real pilgrimage for that "midnight cherry roadster."  I guess he is tired of the car.  I continue to be surprised and pleased that there still are people like Musk among us.  The hiccups in the Tesla car building bidness are unpleasant but I  think they will overcome that with the construction of the company's Shanghai plant.  I am very keen to see if all three booster cores can be returned to Terra for re-use.

I suppose Musk intends to leave his bones on Barsoom.  pl  

https://www.cnet.com/news/spacex-falcon-heavy-elon-musk-tesla-roadster-launch-static-fire/

The Next Step on Iran: Will Trump Pull out of JCPOA?

 by Decameron

On January 13, President Trump has to act on the nuclear deal with Iran:  he can waive the sanctions for 90 days; he can repeat his action of October 13, 2017 and refuse to certify that Iran is in compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA—aka the P5+1 agreement); he can pull the United States out of the agreement.   Intelligence analysts at a high level have said that the recent protests in Iran haven’t determined the President’s thinking about what he will do.  Trump has made no secret of his opinion about the agreement—he hates it. He’s called it the worst deal ever negotiated, but can he afford to pull the US out of it? Abrogating the Iran nuclear agreement at this moment would not increase the chances of pursuing a non-military solution to the North Korean nuclear threat, and his most qualified advisers appear to lean in that direction.  And regardless of what Trump decides on Iran, the other P5+1 signatories-- Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany—will stick to JCPOA.  The European countries long ago exempted themselves from secondary sanctions, and Russia and China won’t be affected by Trump’s sanctions except to become even closer partners in what they perceive as an alliance against “hegemonism.”

The now-waning Iran protests have put the “amen chorus” of Iran-bashers into full swing.  Trump’s sometimes phone pal John Bolton screams about regime change “now”.  The neo-conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) crows that the theocratic state is crackng up in Iran because some protesters chanted “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to Rouhani”.  (FDD houses some of the same players who told us that the Iraqi people would greet the invading American army with “flowers and sweets” and that the Shi’ia would be America’s salvation in Iraq.) 

It’s much more complicated as readers and commenters here know, and too soon to say whether a “Persian Spring” triggered by internal factors or outside “color revolution” will come to pass.  For some of the most insightful and informative comments on the situation, I highly recommend SST’s own January 2^nd Open Thread on Iran.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20180104

LOST OPPORTUNITY. Karlin reminds us that once the USA was extremely popular in Russia. In the early 90s a high of 80% felt good about the USA. 35% then thought the US was friendly and 3% thought it hostile: today it's 3% and 59% respectively. I'm sure someone will blame Putin for the reversal.

SECURITY. The FSB Director tells us in his annual roundup that 120 foreign and international NGOs, covertly used as tools of foreign intelligence, were stopped and 137 agents of foreign special services were uncovered. 23 terrorist attacks were prevented.

CORRUPTION. The former Economic Development Minister was found guilty of accepting bribes and sentenced to 8 years in a penal colony and a fine of 130 million rubles.

POVERTY. The Labour Minister tells us that about 13% of population lives below the poverty line. Putin has raised the minimum wage and, beginning in 2019, it will be set to the "employable population’s subsistence level for Russia as a whole for the second quarter of the previous year".

COMMUNISTS. The Russian Communist Party (the real opposition in terms of votes, policies and seats) has nominated the head of the Lenin State Farm, Pavel Grudinin, as its presidential candidate. Although not an actual CP member, he runs a successful farm in Moscow on socialist principles. (Google Maps). He may bring in more votes than the charisma-free Zyuganov did in numerous previous runs.

ELECTION. I quote Karlin a lot because he is, in my opinion, one of the best of the best observers on Russia and has the advantage of having lived both here and there. I recommend his discussion of the function of elections in a country when everybody knows the super popular President and his pedestal party will be re-elected. He argues that the political leadership wants to own the broad centre of opinion; the performance of parties on the wings allow course corrections. A species of demos-kratia isn't it?

DEPT OF IRONY. "UK turns to Russian project targeted by sanctions for gas supply".

TARTUS. I was scornful of earlier Western excitement over the "naval base in Syria" which was not a huge facility but just a corner of a small port used as a rest stop. But it will become bigger: Putin just signed the law. Described as a "inventory and logistics support centre" the lease is for 49 years. This will allow the Russian Navy to have a permanent Mediterranean presence. (A tiny voice asks whether Moscow is becoming tempted by its success – does it really need bases here and there? Is that really in its national interest?)

Dow 25,000 today. Democrats await collapse of the economy.

Editorial comment:

I find Democratic Party optimism for the 2018 mid-term election to be odd.  It seems to rest on two expectations.

1.  The yearning of the faithful Left for some crime that could be laid at DJT's feet as a plausible basis for impeachment or "sale" to Trump supporters as a basis for voting Democratic in congressional and gubernatorial elections.  This seems an unlikely outcome to me.  In spite of all the hyper-ventilation in the MSM over every rumored "smoking gun" to come in the Russophobic investigations, there is nothing yet in evidence of a crime with which DJT could be charged in the process of impeachment and trial.  Manafort, Flynn, etc. all have profound legal problems, but they are not Trump.  Guilt by association has not yet become a chargeable offense in the US.   Removal for mental incompetence under the 25th Amendment is not a realistic possibility.  This would require a majority vote of the cabinet and with the concurrence of the VP.  Good luck on that!  AND, a hell of a lot of people across the country like Trump's actions even if they think his behavior is bizarre.  Is it seemly for a serving president to host a for profit $750/plate gala at his Florida resort?  No.  It is not but most people just don't care about that.  It is not a crime.

2.  The Democrats believe/hope that the US economy will decline between now and November and that will cause scales to fall from the eyes of the masses.  Well, pilgrims, that is a hell of a thing to hope for and that collapse in the economy seems to me to be very unlikely given the cumulative stimulative effect of DJT actions in tax law, deregulation and his various jaw-boning efforts with business.   The private sector added 148,000  jobs in December BEFORE the tax law was signed.  the DOW crossed the 25,000 frontier early today and just kept going.  Rich people in New York, New Jersey, California and other blue states were never going to vote for Trump anyway sooo ... the loss of their state income tax deduction is not politically significant.  Republican Congressman Reed from western New York state was asked about this today on the Tee Vee.  He replied that he understood this would be difficult for rich people in the big cities but that in his district the average income is $42,000/year and that the continued $10,000 real estate deduction would take care of 99.9% of his constituents and so he had voted for the new tax law. 

It seems to me that the Democrats are counting their chickens mighty early.  pl 

Iran Protests: A Few Of the Internal and External Factors

by Willy B

The good colonel asked me a couple of days ago to post something on Iran. My apologies for taking so long.

According to a number of reports I’ve seen this morning, the protests in Iran have been fading down. Now may be a good time to consider both the internal and external factors involved with them (though this analysis will hardly be comprehensive).

A number of sane observers, in response to Trump's tweets in support of the protestors, suggested that he and the regime changers should be careful what they wish for. The Guardian's Simon Tisdall warned any real or imagined weakening of the Iranian government’s grip could presage a dangerous escalation of regional tensions. Trita Parsi, of the National Iranian American Council, reported in an op-ed published by CNN that the demonstrations, through "quite ferocious... have rarely numbered more than a few thousand in any specific locality."

From everything that I've read, there seem to be two internal factors involved in the demonstrations. One is the real economic issues that reportedly aided the spread of the protests. Secondly, is the hardline factor. By all accounts, the protests began in Mashad, Iran's second largest city and the home base of Ebrahim Raisi, Rouhani's conservative rival for the presidency. According to Parsi, Raisi sought to take advantage of the population's legitimate economic grievances to score points against the Hassan Rouhani government, which they consider too moderate, but then they lost control of them because the economic message has resonated with a broader segment of the population than they expected. "Pro-Rouhanists … believe hard-liner opposition and state security establishment provoked or even helped organize the Mashhad demos and … hadn't factored in the possibility that the demos would get overtaken by their own opponents calling for their own end," reported Golnar Motevalli, an Iran-based correspondent for Bloomberg, reports Al Monitor's Laura Rozen.

Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, acknowledged the economic grievances of the population but indirectly criticized  Rouhani during a press conference, yesterday. “Some feel that a friendship with America will improve the economic situation, but these people should look at a country such as Egypt, which has sacrificed everything for friendship with America,” Jafari said. The tensions between Rouhani and the IRGC are not new, however. Another al Monitor article  reports on the media war between Rouhani and the IRGC, with the IRGC, in recent days setting up new media channels to steer criticism of the government towards Rouhani and away from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This is in direct response to Rouhani’s effort, as reflected in his budget submission in early December, to reduce the amount of state support to cultural organizations that have been instrumental in criticizing the Green Movement as a foreign plot and in attacking Rouhani himself. “We couldn’t allow him to cut off our lifeline,” a producer at the regime production studios said  after Rouhani revealed his new budget. “He and his supporters want to silence us by taking away our funding. But we will not be silenced. We will show him that people don’t agree with him.” the protests that began in Mashad on Dec. 28, therefore, were a direct response from the hardliners to Rouhani's budget and his attack on the hardliners.

The fate of Jerusalem is not a Manhattan real estate deal

 

"... we have taken Jerusalem, the toughest part of the negotiation, off the table.  We pay the Palestinians HUNDRED OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS a year and get no appreciation or respect. They don't even want to negotiate a long overdue peace treaty with Israel," Trump tweeted. "We have taken Jerusalem, the toughest part of the negotiation, off the table, but Israel, for that, would have had to pay more. But with the Palestinians no longer willing to talk peace, why should we make any of these massive future payments to them?" CNN

 

"We are not taking a position on any of the final status issues including the final boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem," Trump said last month as he made his Jerusalem announcement. "Those questions are up to the parties involved. The United States remains deeply committed to helping facilitate a peace agreement that is acceptable to both sides."

Trump's statement at the announcement was intended to reassure Palestinians and the broader Arab and Muslim world that the US was not giving away control of Jerusalem to Israel or forsaking Palestinian claims to the holy city."  CNN

 

---------------

 

DJT's statements concerning the effect of his recognition of the Holy City as Israel's capital are nonsensical.   The Israelis, the Palestinians, the Europeans and every Muslim in the world understand that by taking Jerusalem "off the table" DJT has effectively eliminated the possibility of a negotiation over the city that would in any way relate to the real world.

 

Evidently DJT thinks that an issue like this that concerns the essential identity and self image of millions and millions of Muslims can be handled as though the adversaries in this dispute are business people in a contract discussion.  In that setting a feature of the proposed contract that cannot be agreed on is removed from consideration so that closure can occur on the rest.

 

Well, pilgrims,  the ownership of Jerusalem is not a hotel or skyscraper deal.  Trump's evident belief that the US has hired the Palestinian people through USAID projects and budget support is altogether incorrect.  His belief that the Palestinians are effectively his employees and therefore must settle for a Bantustan created out of some part of what is left without Jerusalem is delusional.

 

The Israelis and other Zionists, like Kushner and Ivanka, have long held the Palestinians in contempt as inferior beings fit only to be cheap labor in the Israeli economy.  That they could have sold that idea to Trump is the measure of the man.  pl

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/02/politics/trump-palestinian-aid/index.html

Iran Open Thread

What to say?  I asked Babak to send us something on this but thus far not a word.  We will have an open thread on this crisis as well as a number of topical posts.

This situation in the streets looks to me to be a bigger revolt than that 0f 2009.

The key question in this uprising is the extent to which the IRGC and the police remain loyal to the Supreme Guide and willing to suppress the masses by all means necessary.

As has been said a lot now the US should be careful not to make empty implied promises of support to the resistors as we did in Hungary in 1956 and in Iraq in 1991.  Approving messaging in the media is one thing but any fanciful ideas that involve supply of weaponry or organizer/advisers should not be given a moments thought

This is an Iranian moment, a moment in which the Iranian people and their sons in the military and police should show what they are made of.  pl

Kim Jong-un’s New Year's Greetings - TTG

"SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s surprise call on Monday for direct talks with South Korea could drive a wedge into the decades-old alliance between Seoul and Washington, potentially creating a reprieve from months of tensions but also undercutting President Trump’s tough approach to the nuclear-armed North.

A New Year’s Day speech by Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, contained a dramatic shift in tone and policy regarding the South. After ignoring South Korea for years, Mr. Kim called for urgent dialogue to discuss improving ties and easing military tensions on the divided Korean Peninsula, even as he claimed an ability to strike the mainland United States with nuclear missiles.

Mr. Kim also agreed to a request by President Moon Jae-in of South Korea to send a North Korean delegation to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics to be held in the South next month.

Mr. Kim’s about-face, which was broadcast on state-run television, came just days after Washington rallied its allies and rivals to support increasingly punishing United Nations sanctions against North Korea."  (NYT)

************************

Along with his dapper new suit, Kim Jong-un greeted the new year with a new tack in his statesmanship. He is reaching out to Seoul for direct talks and agreeing to send a delegation to the upcoming Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. Along with this message, Kim declared that the DPRK has established a nuclear deterrence force and that the button for that force sits on his desk. 

President Moon Jae-in quickly responded favorably to Kim’s overture. I’m sure Moscow and Beijing will also respond favorably. I firmly believe that neither Moscow nor Beijing are keen on the DPRK becoming a nuclear armed state, but they both would prefer a nuclear DPRK to a failed DPRK. I predict Putin and Xi will provide the necessary cover from the inevitable rage tweets from Mar-a-Lago to allow Kim and Moon to seek a negotiated solution to the problems of the Korean peninsula. 

TTG 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/world/asia/kim-jong-un-offer-talks-south-korea-and-us.html

 

Auld Lang Syne - 2018

 

 

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind ? Should old acquaintance be forgot, and old lang syne ?

CHORUS: For auld lang syne, my dear, for auld lang syne, we'll take a cup of kindness yet, for auld lang syne.

And surely you’ll buy your pint cup ! and surely I’ll buy mine ! And we'll take a cup o’ kindness yet, for auld lang syne.

(CHORUS)

We two have run about the slopes, and picked the daisies fine ; But we’ve wandered many a weary foot, since auld lang syne.

(CHORUS)

We two have paddled in the stream, from morning sun till dine ; But seas between us broad have roared since auld lang syne.

(CHORUS)

And there’s a hand my trusty friend ! And give us a hand o’ thine ! And we’ll take a right good-will draught, for auld lang syne.

(CHORUS)

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Auld+Lang+Syne+Celtic+Version&&view=detail&mid=37E2B51AB3AC6241AD0B37E2B51AB3AC6241AD0B&&FORM=VDRVRV