Whither 2018?

 

One of the members suggests that we give our opinions as to the coming year's major developments.  Good Idea! Not too long please.  pl

Comments

[Walrus]

Putin delivers Trump TTG's "punch in the mouth" most probably over American continued meddling in Ukraine.

[Prem]

1. Syria - by this time next year the war will, essentially, be over. Idlib will be liberated with "reconciled" enclaves. Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran and PKK will reach an understanding on autonomy for Rojava. The US will be out of the picture.

2. Iran - the protest movement will fizzle out.

3. The US "party of war" will try and heat things up in Ukraine as Plan B. Trump will not be able to retrain them much. As far as foreign policy goes he is in office, but not in power.

4. Trump won't reign in MBS. Yemen will be a disaster, but MBS won't crash and burn in 2018.

5. GOP will get crushed in mid-terms but not enough for GOPinc to collude in impeachment. Mueller will get nowhere but the MSM noise machine will keep him in business.

6. Despite cosmopolitan hysteria it will become clear that a hard Brexit will happen in March 2019.

[Linda]

1 North Korea issue will ramp down; 2 Neocons will bring us close to war with Iran; 3 Famine and death in Yemen will be ignored by everyone, mostly the US; 4 Our president today said global warning can be good so I guess we can forget about any efforts on that issue. So, I think I will stop there with my succinct and awesome predictions. Note this is sarcasm!

[rkka]

The delivery of Javelin antitank missiles to the Ukrainian army will not signal intensification of military operations there. After the massive munitions dump explosions of September 2017 and March 2017, Ukraine does not have the artillery munitions inventory to sustain offensive operations for more than a brief time. And the Russian government is surpassingly unlikely to supply sufficient munitions for the Donbas separatists to significantly expand their territory.

So another year of desultory artillery strikes & small arms skirmishing is in store for Eastern Ukraine, with no significant politico-military developments there.

2019 will be different, because the long-term natural gas contracts between the Soviet Union and her European customers, specifying Uzhgorod in Western Ukraine as the point for delivery, expire, and Ukraine will lose the gas transit business that has helped sustain her economy since independence.

There goes $2.5 billion a year in transit fees for the Ukrainian economy. That will hit Ukraine hard.

[Lars]

The GOP lose their congressional majorities.

[JohnA]

Happy New Year Col Lang and fellow travelers,

It's a bit of a guessing game, the future, and since M K Bhadrakumar
has been one of my frequent sources of enlightenment over the last few
years I'll go along with M K's 2018 guesses: http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2017/12/29/2018-hotspots-are-in-eurasia-and-middle-east/

Peace and Joy to all commemorating Hogmanay this year.

Thanks for your intensely interesting and very sharp reporting and our committee's commentating. I am very grateful.

[Timothy Hagios]

I am inclined to think that the conflict in Donbass will come to an end in 2018, one way or another. The Russian presidential election is just three months away, and if there were ever a time when Putin's hands would be tied, this would be it.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang, SST;
Notwithstanding the incomparable Yogi (It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future),here are my predictions (aka SWAG) for 2018:
1-In Turkey tayyip will become a lame duck.
2-In Syria Assad will maintain his power for the entire year.
3-The Kurds of Syria will switch sides and start collaborating w/ the Assad regime.
4-Nobody is going to attack Iran or North Korea.
5-Israel is not going to attack Hizbullah.
6-The "Russian manipulation of US elections" meme will implode with a whimper.
7-Trump will not be impeached in 2018.
Ishmael Zechariah

Happy New Year to all of you and yours.

[Laura]

More of the same...as our President's dementia becomes more evident and we all try to ignore it. Hans Christian Anderson would understand.

[Not In Istanbul]

Here are my doom and gloom predictions for the next year...

** US attack on and Chinese occupation of N. Korea by May

** Popping of bitcoin bubble, another emerging market crisis, first obvious failure of ZIRP as markets turn south 10-20% in a matter of a few weeks

** East Ukraine conflict flares up again, drawing heavy handed Russian intervention, while Israel given green light to invade Syria and threaten Damascus to counter the "growing" Iranian threat. US offers to create no fly zone to provide cover

** Markets decline another 20-30%

** S. American forces allied with US invade and occupy Venezuela (lead given to Brazilian forces, military bribed to assume power and not to resist)

** Fake assassination attempt on Erdogan, blamed on sinister NATO agents, Turkey temporarily ceases dealings with alliance, evicts all staff, and RTE uses it as an opportunity to distract populace from massive devaluation of Lira to 6 to 1 USD

[Heros]

The Calm Before The Storm will end in 2017, and #TheStorm will hit in 2018.

Robert Steele, among many others, has been shedding light on some developments going on behind the curtain. There are reports of over 4000 sealed indictments in federal courts, strange goings on with Hillary and John McCain wearing special boots for weeks at a time and then going silent at Christmas.

There have been resignations of dozens of large corporate executives and other VIP's in 2017. Here are some of the companies involved:
Google, GE, Disney, Novartis, Kellogg, Chevron, HP, Samsung, American Express, Panera, Uber, Bose, Kohls, Anthem Health, Tenet Health, United Health, Madison Square Garden, Amtrak, Bentley, NYPD, and on and on and on.

It is unbelievable, but there is a MSM link behind every one. Something big is going down in 2018.

Here are the 3 Twitter feeds listing resignations with supporting news/press releases:
https://twitter.com/antischool_ftw/status/944894723252039680
https://twitter.com/antischool_ftw/status/944960699016527873
https://twitter.com/antischool_ftw/status/945536182351380480

[Lincolnite]

My desire to remain well informed is currently at odds with my desire to stay sane. I doubt 2018 is going to improve matters, Thank goodness for Sic Temper Tyrannis andits insightful capacities.

[rjj]

Am still working on whence (too vast to multitask).

[Morongobill]

My prediction is that this Russia Gate will blow over but the massive amount of egg will remain on the msm's faces and the Donald will never let them forget it. There will be no impeachment. I also believe that we will not come to blows on the Korean peninsula, and that Russia and China will help provide a face saving way out of the situation.

[jonst]

If the economy continues to grow like it has been the last few quarters, i.e. above 3%, the Nation will begin to forget about overseas adventures. A bit. It will begin, even, to forget about cultural and immigration issues. A bit. And a kind of 1920's decadence and money making obsession will take over. Again. None of this may last...in the long run. But in the short term, next few years, it will boom.

Maybe.

[jpb]

The trend divergence between narrative and reality will increase exponentially. The divergence will induce increased instability and uncertainty into finance, culture, and politics. The manipulation of narrative skillfully empowers and enriches incompetent elites who edge closer to dramatic mistakes in geo-political reality of war.

Mercenary armies, financialization, political corruption, educational incompetence, etc reduce the USA’s capacity to absorb the mistakes of empire. The best we can hope for the new year is a whine and a whimper and the sacrifice of scapegoats; as renewal would imply civil war between the American host and the globalist parasite.

[jld]

reign -> rein
It is MBS who will reign over Saudi Arabia.
Not a native English speaker but this gets annoying and it occurs also in French, people seem more and more unable to properly use language.
I wonder where this comes from...

[Bill H]

In regard to #5, Special Prosecutors are not supposed to "accomplish" anything. It is the investigation itself that matters, not the outcome. It is all for show and to help manipulate the media show. It is supposed to last as long as possible and to involve as many "suspects" as it possibly can, and Mueller is playing his part as expected.

[jld]

Are you also aware that stray planet Nibiru has a good chance to hit the Earth according to some prophecies?

[Adrestia]

The EU crisis will intensify
The EU has multiple issues that are shaking its foundations
* The EURO rules of Maastricht treaty remove the ability of national politicians to stimulate their economies with:
1. Printing money
2. Running a deficit

Austerity and privatizing are the only options left. When not changed this will increasingly alienate national citizens against the EU as all recent elections show that the ruling pro-Europe political parties have lost. This will continue until anti-EU parties will win the majority (in a coalition).

The Italian general elections may well be the first big economy which will leave the Euro-zone. Populist right and left have a pact to get out of the Euro. If this happens this will also be the trigger for the continuation of the Great Financial Crisis (which has never been away for the economical lower 50% of the voters)

Catalonia and Brexit are other manifestations of the anti-EU sentiments.

* (lack of) solidarity and common traditions between countries. Richer against poorer countries, east versus west, etc. Refugees (economical, political and war) are probably the best example. Italy and Greece get the bulk of refugees entering Europe. Eastern Europe refuses agreed quote of refugees (IMO totally useless, but significant for the EU-solidarity. This is a national, political sign of anti-EU sentiment.

The EU has also started an Article 7 procedure against Poland because of Poland's changes in the judicial system. This could lead to sanctions, loss of voting rights and ultimately expulsion. This is the first time and is another crack appearing.

The EU is becoming very fragile.

The Great Financial Crisis that started in 2007 will resume
The GFC has never gone away. The Quantative Easing programs of the Fed and the ECB has been to the benefit of the top 20% in the west. Especially the lower 50% has not benefitted at all and have paid the price. Inflation caused by these trillions are now starting to appear in common products such as food (at least in my country)

Tax-cuts and profits in Europe and the US have been used to inflate asset prices and the stock market. There have hardly been any investments in new production assets and jobs. This makes a lot of people feel richer (especially with their homes) and causes a false sense of optimism. When reality (or an unexpected war) hits, the fall will be bigger than 2007/2008 was.

[Thomas]

Muhammad bin Salman gets to meet Allah face to face, along with all the others that left before, thanks to him.

You do not torture a man like Bandar bin Sultan and allow him to live. As for the foreign experts that applied the "enhanced interrogation techniques", they better be long gone on that day or they will learn the dark side of the Golden Rule.

[turcopolier]

Thomas

Having dealt with Bandar bin Sultan a lot I am intrigued by the idea of him being enhancedly interrogated. Is there a link to that story? pl

[John Minnerath]

For 2018 things will remain much the same.
The Democrats and the left will continue on their path of self destruction and Trump will continue to flounder in his attempt to do what he sees as right for the country while his enemies in the GOP try to thwart him.
The rhetoric with North Korea will go up and down, but I see no madman scenario.
Meanwhile I'll try to keep enjoying what simple pleasures I can. Good pipe tobacco, good coffee, and good Scotch whisky although they all get harder to find and more expensive.

[A. Pols]

What sort of predictions might have been made for New Years, 1914?
Or New Years 2001?
The role of the unexpected in determining future events is so "biggly yuge" that events have a way of mocking prognosticators.
People in Britain were pretty sure in 1938 that war with Germany was coming, but none had a clue about how that war would play out and, Edward Rydz-Śmigły, could speak of a "cavalry ride to Berlin", but then came that punch in the mouth.
About the best any of us can do is to say how things might play out, assuming antecedent conditions are met.
So events in the Donbas could sputter on, or not. And, if not they they could devolve into a general war, a new "Crimean war". And in Syria, Assad could very well consolidate his positions and the area could stabilize, or not if other players do certain things.
Then there are Black Swan events. Maybe Putin is assassinated or keels over from a heart attack and, then what?
And then we have the dust-up with NOKO. Maybe we attack in the night and seize their choke points; the whole thing ends with a whimper. Or we do the same and they turn out to be able to nuke Seoul and they get lucky and hit LA, while at the same time our ground forces are already in NOKO and we have nobody to play out our glowing ashtray final act with. Wouldn't that be interesting? Or things go on; they test another table thumper and do a missile born atmospheric test in an isolated ocean area outside shipping lanes and the indissoluble standoff just sharpens.

We face the next year with many possibilities and I can't begin to say where we will be in another 12 months, only many possibilities of dramatic changes and many possibilities of things staying close to the same. Maybe that's the best hope...

[ex-PFC Chuck]

While we're somewhat off topic, I just saw on my Twitter feed that the King of Jordan has fired his three brothers from the armed forces and put them under house arrest, based on evidence that they were fomenting a coup with Saudi help.
https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/946789594141462528