How Do Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Work? - Space.com

 

"An ICBM, as its name implies, can travel from one continent to another. Once launched, ICBMs travel in a parabola, much like a baseball flying through the air. Just like a baseball, an ICBM can be released at any angle. But in North Korea's case, the ICBMs are being launched "almost straight up," Coyle told Live Science. "They fly straight up against the force of gravity and come down some distance from North Korea … If they're long-range, [the North Koreans] usually drop them on the other side of Japan, which, of course, makes Japan very nervous."

It's important to note that North Korea wouldn't aim its ICBMs straight up if it wanted to launch an actual attack. "They'd launch toward their target, which might be thousands of miles away," Coyle said. That means that even though the Hwasong-15, the latest ICBM, traveled about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) from its launch site, it could travel much farther — likely more than 8,100 miles (13,000 km) from its launch site if it had a standard trajectory, according to a Nov. 28 blog written by missile expert David Wright.

However, it's challenging to know how far a battle-ready North Korean ICBM would fly, as its "practice" ICBM likely had a light payload or none at all. Such a payload — like a nuclear warhead — would weigh down the ICBM and limit the distance it could travel, Coyle said."   Space.com

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 Achievement of a miniaturized nuclear warhead for this beast is just a matter of time and effort.  NoKo progress so far exceeds expectations.  Why should it not continue to do so?  For a literally wormy lot, they have an impressive ability to build these things.  I remember my father (a Korean War veteran at age 50) telling me that Korean farmers used human feces to fertilize their fields and that as a result the population was rotten with parasites. (parental reference).

My point is that NoKo will achieve what amounts to a first strike capability with their first and last ICBM to be launched at the US. Would we be lucky and have the thing hit Toronto rather than NY City?  Who knows?  IMO it would be the luck of the draw given the probable CEP of a NoKo ballistic missile.

How big a warhead would the thing be armed with?  Would it function after re-entry?  Who knows?

Ballistic missiles are very different weapons from the usual run of destructive instruments.  I was in Baghdad during the harb al-mudun (war of the cities) when Iran and Iraq were pummeling each other with SCUDS.  (self glorifying reference) There was little warning.  Occasionally a few seconds of radar driven siren, but usually there would be ordinary city noise followed by a very loud noise and a building would be gone.  I made it a habit to stay on the middle floors of hotels to avoid the consequences of a rooftop hit or a ground burst next to the hotel.  pl  

https://www.space.com/38954-how-do-intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-work.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15

Comments

[Degringolade]

Colonel:

Please don't consider this disrespectful or flip, but the truth is, I am more worried about the ICBM's that Jeff Bezos is building (yes, all of his rockets can be "missiles" if one so chose).

Bezos' megalomania is much more worrisome than Kim's paranoia.

[turcopolier]

Degringolade
Bezos does not have a nuclear weapons program. It is true that any SSM or SAM can be made into a ground target weapon. The NIKE Hercules was aparticularly accurate in that role. pl

[johnT]

Feces like wastewater treatment "cake" that is gleefully sent to mister farmer guy here in the good old US?

Big 'maters you've got there Clem!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewage_sludge_treatment

[turcopolier]

john T

"pathogen destruction is frequently accomplished through heating during thermophilic digestion, composting, or incineration." your wiki. You are calling me "Clem?" You are mocking me? Goodbye. pl

[Lefty]

There was a picture of Kim with a miniaturized nuclear warhead a couple of months ago. Made me curious where they were getting their rapidly developing nuclear and rocket skills. Didn't seem likely they were all home grown. Any suggestions?

[b]

The South Korean government assessed that the HS-15 missile can fly 13,000km with a payload of up to 1,000kg. Its reentry vehicle is large enough to hold the "peanut" H-bomb the DPRK tested and showed off. Indeed the RV is large enough to allow for a few extra dummies to confuse any missile defense.

With today's electronics the aiming and steering of a missile is much less a problem than in earlier times. With the HS-15 the DPRK also mastered gimbaled nozzles which is the most effective way of steering.

An analyst at 38North says that two or three more launches will be needed for the DPRK to declare the system fully operational.

The DPRK already has the means to send a nuke to the U.S. in case of an emergency, like an attempted decapitation strike.

The DPRK is a fully capable nuclear state. It has mobile ICBMs, different types of nukes that are sufficiently small and it will soon also have submarine launched missiles on a few boats.

Washington should end its grief and negotiate the rules for deterrence. As the DPRK has no intent for now to attack anyone that should mean that the U.S. military stays in a bit of distance of NoKo and stops the warmongering.

We might otherwise see some airburst demonstration that will teach Japan that the U.S. neither can nor is willing to defend it. Some test launches to aims near Guam are also a possibility.

[BillWade]

I've been reading some pundits who are saying that Trump is the "madman" and Kim Jung Un is the sane one for he only wants to free up his military to go plant some rice and can't do that due to our "excercises". We've been having these excercises for decades and have not once attacked NoKor in spite of their continuing provocations. We will still hold our exercises and then what is Kim Jung Un to do?

[BillWade]

When my youngest daughter had a suitor calling I once answered the phone and he said, "hey dude, is Mary home?", I said to him "it's, Mr Dude to you".

[turcopolier]

b

Interesting, but you are guessing as to whether or not NoKo has available to it the modernization issues that would much improve CEP at range. In fact you are making an argument for a massive US pre-emptive attack. pl

[Matthew]

Col: The saddest consequence of NK nuclear capacity will be the Neo-Cons will argue that Preventative Wars (against Iran, for example) are now mandatory.

[Fred]

b,

Let me review that analysis:
"...the DPRK has no intent for now to attack anyone..."
Today's not looking too good? How does Tuesday look?

"Washington should end its grief and negotiate the rules for deterrence."

"We might otherwise see some airburst demonstration that will teach .."

Teach what, North Korea can force the US to pay extortion? I can see the ads now. "You too can extort the US. For only a year's supply of oil North Korea will make you fully nuclear capable. Just call Junior Samples Rocket Man at BR-549. Operators are standing by. What's not to like about that deal?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xhTomqDTzE

[Norbert M Salamon]

all the sanctions are attacks - though of a different type than the cruise missiles, drones and other aspects of kinetic war - they still casing intentional economic or social harm

[FourthAndLong]

Did you see this back in August 2017?

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html

So, you aren’t the only one who’s curious. I’ve strongly suspected what’s hinted at in above article. And worse. The British military historian Anthony Beevor very briefly dropped some further ominous hints in these regards in an address recently. Can try to find YouTube link if interested.

[Dave Schuler]

What's the evidence that North Korea is deterrable? I'm not being flip. I'd genuinely like to know.

[ked]

Does anyone sense an unspoken argument, "To address the threat to the USA, we must accept S Korea being destroyed."?

[turcopolier]

ked

Why the quotation marks? pl

[jld]

We will still hold our exercises and then what is Kim Jung Un to do?

Nothing special beyond sending the troops to rice planting/harvesting, the "plan" is to nullify the threat of an actual attack by having credible retaliation.

[BillWade]

We have several thousand troops in South Korea and have held exercises there for decades to prevent such a thing from happening, what's changed?

[aleksandar]

Maybe Thereran.....thumb his nose to US ?

[aleksandar]

Kim is not mad.he is not going to attack USA.
Noko nuclear program est just deterrence type weak/mighty.
Nobody,having 10 nuclear ICBM will launch a nuclear attack against someone that has 3500.
Nothing more.

[Amir]

Interesting background info from “Arms Control Wonk” blog:

NORTH KOREA’S BIG FRICKIN’ MISSILE by ACW Podcast | November 30, 2017
North Korea tested a new ICBM called the Hwasong-15 ... discuss the missile, the launch site, the truck that carried it, and its oh-so-roomy payload...
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1204469/north-koreas-big-frickin-missile/

Images from KCNA of North Korea's new Hwasong-15 ICBM test
https://www.flickr.com/photos/150159554@N03/sets/72157687883294232

[Alaric]

Turcopolier:

"In fact you are making an argument for a massive US pre-emptive attack."

Only if the US is willing to lose say LA, Seattle, San Fran, San Diego and maybe Chicago. My understanding is that North Korea has hardened underground bunkers for their missiles. This last ICBM was allegedly launched from a mobile launcher and it could be easily hidden.

It is reasonable to expect missiles would survive your massive preemptive strike and be used against the continental US.

[b]

For 50 years North Korea has behaved rational in its foreign policy. Aggressive at times, but rational and not suicidal. Its first impulse is always to survive. It is thus as deterable as any other country.

[Fred]

Alaric,

And next year they'll have how many missles?

[turcopolier]

Alaric

all of that seems extremely unlikely to me. NoKo is not the USSR or China. It is a half assed little country that has put whatever resources it has into developing a small force that would be wiped out in the first days of a war with the US. Like "b" and a number of people who infest my blog you yearn for the humiliation and fall of the US. Austin, Texas, eh? How transparent. pl