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01 December 2017

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Degringolade

Colonel:

Please don't consider this disrespectful or flip, but the truth is, I am more worried about the ICBM's that Jeff Bezos is building (yes, all of his rockets can be "missiles" if one so chose).

Bezos' megalomania is much more worrisome than Kim's paranoia.

turcopolier

Degringolade
Bezos does not have a nuclear weapons program. It is true that any SSM or SAM can be made into a ground target weapon. The NIKE Hercules was aparticularly accurate in that role. pl

johnT

Feces like wastewater treatment "cake" that is gleefully sent to mister farmer guy here in the good old US?

Big 'maters you've got there Clem!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewage_sludge_treatment

turcopolier

john T

"pathogen destruction is frequently accomplished through heating during thermophilic digestion, composting, or incineration." your wiki. You are calling me "Clem?" You are mocking me? Goodbye. pl

Lefty

There was a picture of Kim with a miniaturized nuclear warhead a couple of months ago. Made me curious where they were getting their rapidly developing nuclear and rocket skills. Didn't seem likely they were all home grown. Any suggestions?

b

The South Korean government assessed that the HS-15 missile can fly 13,000km with a payload of up to 1,000kg. Its reentry vehicle is large enough to hold the "peanut" H-bomb the DPRK tested and showed off. Indeed the RV is large enough to allow for a few extra dummies to confuse any missile defense.

With today's electronics the aiming and steering of a missile is much less a problem than in earlier times. With the HS-15 the DPRK also mastered gimbaled nozzles which is the most effective way of steering.

An analyst at 38North says that two or three more launches will be needed for the DPRK to declare the system fully operational.

The DPRK already has the means to send a nuke to the U.S. in case of an emergency, like an attempted decapitation strike.

The DPRK is a fully capable nuclear state. It has mobile ICBMs, different types of nukes that are sufficiently small and it will soon also have submarine launched missiles on a few boats.

Washington should end its grief and negotiate the rules for deterrence. As the DPRK has no intent for now to attack anyone that should mean that the U.S. military stays in a bit of distance of NoKo and stops the warmongering.

We might otherwise see some airburst demonstration that will teach Japan that the U.S. neither can nor is willing to defend it. Some test launches to aims near Guam are also a possibility.


BillWade

I've been reading some pundits who are saying that Trump is the "madman" and Kim Jung Un is the sane one for he only wants to free up his military to go plant some rice and can't do that due to our "excercises". We've been having these excercises for decades and have not once attacked NoKor in spite of their continuing provocations. We will still hold our exercises and then what is Kim Jung Un to do?

BillWade

When my youngest daughter had a suitor calling I once answered the phone and he said, "hey dude, is Mary home?", I said to him "it's, Mr Dude to you".

turcopolier

b

Interesting, but you are guessing as to whether or not NoKo has available to it the modernization issues that would much improve CEP at range. In fact you are making an argument for a massive US pre-emptive attack. pl

Matthew

Col: The saddest consequence of NK nuclear capacity will be the Neo-Cons will argue that Preventative Wars (against Iran, for example) are now mandatory.

Fred

b,

Let me review that analysis:
"...the DPRK has no intent for now to attack anyone..."
Today's not looking too good? How does Tuesday look?

"Washington should end its grief and negotiate the rules for deterrence."

"We might otherwise see some airburst demonstration that will teach .."

Teach what, North Korea can force the US to pay extortion? I can see the ads now. "You too can extort the US. For only a year's supply of oil North Korea will make you fully nuclear capable. Just call Junior Samples Rocket Man at BR-549. Operators are standing by. What's not to like about that deal?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xhTomqDTzE

Norbert M Salamon

all the sanctions are attacks - though of a different type than the cruise missiles, drones and other aspects of kinetic war - they still casing intentional economic or social harm

FourthAndLong

Did you see this back in August 2017?

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html

So, you aren’t the only one who’s curious. I’ve strongly suspected what’s hinted at in above article. And worse. The British military historian Anthony Beevor very briefly dropped some further ominous hints in these regards in an address recently. Can try to find YouTube link if interested.

Dave Schuler

What's the evidence that North Korea is deterrable? I'm not being flip. I'd genuinely like to know.

ked

Does anyone sense an unspoken argument, "To address the threat to the USA, we must accept S Korea being destroyed."?

turcopolier

ked

Why the quotation marks? pl

 jld
We will still hold our exercises and then what is Kim Jung Un to do?

Nothing special beyond sending the troops to rice planting/harvesting, the "plan" is to nullify the threat of an actual attack by having credible retaliation.

BillWade

We have several thousand troops in South Korea and have held exercises there for decades to prevent such a thing from happening, what's changed?

aleksandar

Maybe Thereran.....thumb his nose to US ?

aleksandar

Kim is not mad.he is not going to attack USA.
Noko nuclear program est just deterrence type weak/mighty.
Nobody,having 10 nuclear ICBM will launch a nuclear attack against someone that has 3500.
Nothing more.

Amir

Interesting background info from “Arms Control Wonk” blog:

NORTH KOREA’S BIG FRICKIN’ MISSILE by ACW Podcast | November 30, 2017
North Korea tested a new ICBM called the Hwasong-15 ... discuss the missile, the launch site, the truck that carried it, and its oh-so-roomy payload...
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1204469/north-koreas-big-frickin-missile/

Images from KCNA of North Korea's new Hwasong-15 ICBM test
https://www.flickr.com/photos/150159554@N03/sets/72157687883294232

Alaric

Turcopolier:

"In fact you are making an argument for a massive US pre-emptive attack."

Only if the US is willing to lose say LA, Seattle, San Fran, San Diego and maybe Chicago. My understanding is that North Korea has hardened underground bunkers for their missiles. This last ICBM was allegedly launched from a mobile launcher and it could be easily hidden.

It is reasonable to expect missiles would survive your massive preemptive strike and be used against the continental US.

b

For 50 years North Korea has behaved rational in its foreign policy. Aggressive at times, but rational and not suicidal. Its first impulse is always to survive. It is thus as deterable as any other country.

Fred

Alaric,

And next year they'll have how many missles?

turcopolier

Alaric

all of that seems extremely unlikely to me. NoKo is not the USSR or China. It is a half assed little country that has put whatever resources it has into developing a small force that would be wiped out in the first days of a war with the US. Like "b" and a number of people who infest my blog you yearn for the humiliation and fall of the US. Austin, Texas, eh? How transparent. pl

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