Jerusalem update - 10 December 2017

The US decision to give Israel the title deed to ALL of Jerusalem without diplomatic recompense will look worse and worse as time passes.  The street demonstrations breaking out in places like Beirut and Amman are just the beginning of the process of condemnation.  Almost every country in Europe has condemned the action.  The Arab League has condemned the action.  This will put the Arab states in the position of having to make basic decisions about their relations with Israel (Egypt and Jordan) and the US.  In the case of Jordan and Egypt large amounts of free money from the US and Saudi Arabia will be at stake but ... Russia, China and many European companies stand in the wings waiting to expand their influence and activity.  At the same time Sultan Tayyip Erdogan has invited the OIC to convene in Turkey to consider the Islamic World's reaction to Trump's gift to Israel.  Trump apparently decided to do this on the basis of the counsel of his Zionist son-in law acting on behalf of Likudniks who IMO want nothing more than an Israel from the sea to the Jordan River that is Arab free except for a suitable population of helots.   It has been interesting this Sunday morning to watch Jake Tapper ask Nikki Haley how it is that this land deal will promote a settlement.  She smiled a secretive smile redolent of private meetings and knowledge.   We have spoken to both sides she said and you will see that we have restored motion to the process.  Tapper pressed her on this and she could only say that Tapper will understand what a great policy change this is.  He was unconvinced.  IMO Trump, urged on by Kushner, believes that the Palestinians, have no recourse and that having been beaten like dogs will accept anything.  pl 

 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/239095

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5164435/Turkish-President-Erdogan-calls-Israel-terrorist-state.html

 

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

So, OMB attack on Harper's Ferry is now followed by a Dred Scott Decision; "...we woke up stark mad raving abolitionists."

[The Porkchop Express]

The Palestinians really have no recourse in the short term. Arab governments--perpetually apathetic about the Palestinian cause, if not hostile--reacted with the usual staid pablum. After six years of uprisings and civil wars of varying intensity, the "Arab Street's" reaction was muted at best.

But in the long term, this decision will be catastrophic for Israel and will add another notch in an impressively long line of spectacularly dumb policy choices in the Middle East for the US. Unless Israel wants to commit genocide on a scale that would really make a difference (but impossible given its own historical identity), this will likely strengthen the BDS movement and begin a slow and painful march to an Arab majority one state solution. Good luck with all that.

[turcopolier]

babak

Dred Scott came first. what is your point? pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

My point is that a single, seemingly inconsequential action, could enflame emotions that, in time, could lead to a much wider war.

[Serge]

The Arabs and their paper states are a beaten people, the only hope for the Palestinians and the Arab people is total Iranian domination of the former seljuk borders or political collapse of GCC-maintained order in the greater Middle East extending to Pakistan and replacement with a grassroots ISIS/taliban type entity, proven to be very resilient in past 10-25 years in forging sovereign order where there was chaos and debasemen and guarding against acute and chronic foreign interference. not mutually exclusive things, the end result of each option could probably coexist, indeed they are probably not exclusive options but one is concomitant to the other.. Think "management of savagery". The Iranian option on a wider scale, through some type of Turkish and French Maghreb cooperation/cultural synthesis would be less painful but probably less stable in the long term as the persian succumbs to his innate liberal ideal and the cycle starts again. I don't think there is an alternative to either of these cases, they are inevitable as the current "judeo-Christian" bankrolled paradigm is untenable. and the result for Israel in either case is the same:bad

[Heros]

A great set of pictures of the protest:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5162139/Israeli-warplanes-batter-Gaza-missiles.html

About halfway down there are a series of images of "Mounted Officers" clad in black armor on beautiful black horses, also clad in black armor. The Palestinians cower in the back ground as the mighty Israeli's intimidate them in scenes that could come straight out of the bible. This is predictive programming at its finest.

This will not end well for the Israelis.

[Valissa]

Trump has lanced the boil, and IMO that is a good thing in the bigger picture.

The Israeli-Palestinian situation has been stuck in very slow boiling frog mode for some time. It becomes more and more obvious to more people every year that there is no 2-state solution and there is no real desire for peace as the Israelis continue to take Palestinian land. There has been no real consequences for them doing so, as it's been done slowly in stealth.

Now the bandaid has been ripped off. All is more public now. How the various ME gov'ts act on this issue now will be seem by all. All sides have been using the Palestinians as a political football for their own geopolitical ends. Karma=consequences.

As this post points out, this move is already triggering a rearrangement of the ME the chess pieces. Given how awful it's been, is that such a bad thing?

[JamesT]

Serge

I don't think "Iranian domination" is the only alternative. I think Iran is seeking to emulate the British/US strategy of forming mutually benefitial alliances. For example, the US does not "dominate" South Korea but it has formed a partnership with South Korea such that South Korea gains from that partnership. By the same token, contrary to neocon propaganda, Iran does not dominate Hezbollah but it works in partnership with Hezbollah. The reason why Iran is a threat to the US-UK partnership is that they are emulating our successful geopolitical strategies. I think that an Iranian-Russian partnership would be very formidable if they can work together in the long term.

[Patrick Armstrong]

Today's lunatic fringe hypothesis.
Trump wants to MAGA
That entails cutting it loose from real and imagined foreign entanglements
The Borg is opposed to that big time and it would be difficult and dangerous to do from Washington
Therefore, do your best to piss off said entanglements/allies/whatever
They will do the cutting off themselves

In short, a certain amount of isolationism is a good thing (for everybody, actually)

Again, just a crazy idea I have filed away in the Maybe File.

(PS And now we find that the Pentagon isn't even sure how many troops are overseas.)

Whaddaya think?

[turcopolier]

Patrick Armstrong

So you think the real plan is to cause NATO, etc. to reject us for our lunacy? BTW DoD never knows exactly how many military people are overseas. There are too many people coming and going all the time, people on TDY and the bureaucrats fiddle with the books to avoid limits placed by Congress. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

What Iran has supplied the Arabs has been "brains".

[Terry]

I thought something similar. - It was Wow! Trump just handed the Middle East to Russia.
Given Turkey's increasing islamization, Erdogan's Ottoman revival dreams, Turkish/Iranian cultural ties such as Sufism and past Turkish/Iranian alliances I could see a Turkish/Iranian alliance. Turkey is pro Muslim Brotherhood and Iran once was pre-Syria and could easily reconcile, especially if promised help in regaining Egypt - lost due to the Saudis. Russia is on fairly good terms with both. So many factors point to the Saudis and their client states as being the odd man out. Saudi/Egypt ties to the US and Israel will also feed the fault lines. Trump's move may be the catalyst that will create at least temporarily a powerful coalition that will start with it's focus on Israel but Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be targets as well.

[Keith Harbaugh]

I wonder how much anticipation of the following
motivated Trump's decision on Jerusalem:

"Trump says White House Hanukkah celebration 'all about Jerusalem' "
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/07/trump-white-house-hanukkah-jerusalem-287131

"I know for a fact there are a lot of happy people in this room,"
Trump said as he entered the [Hanukkah] party.
"This one will go down as especially special."

It sure sounds to me like
earning favor with American Jews
was at least a factor in his decision.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

MAGA?

I can usually sniff out most of the acronyms here but that one's beyond me at the moment.

[eakens]

How about this. We are against Iran but all of our moves in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. Since 9/11 have done nothing but benefit them. Even this last one. I mean the only two countries that were against a 2-State solution were Israel and Iran. Iran would have accepted it, but was against it. How about that for the maybe file. Ha

[kooshy]

If you mean Iran prefers Ikhwan' sunni Islam to that of Saudi wahabi/ISIS version, yes IMO you are correct.
I think in a larger picture, Iran prefers Sunni Islam which accepts coexistence with the Shia Islam on equal bases in practice and not just words, IMO one reason is, it becomes more difficult if not impossible, for outsiders and ill wishers to agitate and start inter faith clashes and wars, as well as being easier for minority sect which are the Shia.

[Patrick Armstrong]

Trump's slogan: Make America Great Again

[Patrick Armstrong]

Something like that (but it's just my crazy idea to wonder about)
Yes but the number being talked about is 44K: that's a lot of in transit, sick leave et al. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-09/dude-wheres-my-troops-pentagon-loses-track-44000-soldiers

[Croesus]

1. At Values Voters Summit in October 2017, Steve Bannon received a raucous response when he affirmed Trump's pledge to move US embassy to Jerusalem https://www.c-span.org/video/?435688-1/steve-bannon-addresses-values-voter-summit
Bannon's speech focused on HIS contributions to gaining a majority Electoral College vote for Trump. Given that Trump fired Bannon shortly after taking office, I conjectured that Bannon's role was -- and was limited to -- getting votes, not necessarily geostrategic thinking/policy making. In that he's a zero.

2. The other day, Washington Journal moderator Greta Brawner invited listeners to telephone their opinion of Trump's action. In the course of the program, Brawner read from a Wall Street Journal article:

"That Christians pushed the president for this Israel shift.? That Evangelical leaders have been coming to the White House almost on a daily basis, pushing the president to make this shift. Like Jews and Muslims, Christians prize Jerusalem as a holy city, as a place of Christ's death and awaited return, and many evangelicals believe the land was given to the Jews by God who promises in the bible to bless those who bless Israel, and that designating Jerusalem is in solidarity with the Jewish people."

Brawner did not expand on the article to explain that the notion that "God will bless those bless Israel" is a concept inserted into Protestant bibles & seminaries through the so-called Scofield bible, with its pro-zionist interpretative footnotes, which was financed by Jewish zionists.

But the short version is that Christian zionists were activated to press for Trump to move US embassy to Jerusalem.

[Trent]

MAGA = Make America Great Again

[jdledell]

There are a LOT of Israelis who think the ultimate solutions to the Palestinians is to put them on Reservations like we did to Native Americans. If it was good enough for the Americans it is good enough for Israel. However, it's obvious in talking with them there is a lot they don't understand about our Reservations, namely Native Americans are citizens and they are free to live off the reservation. When I explain this difference to them, they are very confused. Then they proffer their next solution, give the Palestinians to Jordan which is the last thing Jordan wants to do.

[Dr. George W. Oprisko]

This decision validates the position and policies of Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq & Iran vis a vis the GCC, NATO, & EU.

Trump just gave them the high ground.

It also makes an ass out of Hamas and the palestinian groups who took the side
of the jihadists.

It will have ramifications within the Orthodox Community. ... Think Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, Greece, Bulgaria.

It directly plays into the hand of OBOR

INDY

[rjj]

Google it. A single definition won't suffice.

It's apparently some sort of eye-of-the-beholder, tactical CogDis, maybe subversive and mesoaggressive, aspirational to some and Anti-american to others slogan sometimes commoditized into fashion statement that started its cacameme course as a hashtag....or something like that. .

[robt willmann]

ex-PFC Chuck,

MAGA = Make America Great Again.

[Tim B.]

The law mandating that the US recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was passed in 1996 with overwhelming support from both parties. McCain voted for it. Boxer voted for it. Feinstein voted for it. Bill Clinton signed it into law.

That law allows the US president to issue 6-month delays to impliment the law based upon national security concerns. I am unaware of any such concerns.

Now, I'm not a fan of Trump. Nor am I a fan of Israel stealing Palestinian land. That said, all Trump is doing is following preexisting US law. Trump isn't the only problem. Instead, Congress and both parties are also in Israel's pocket, as the passage of this law shows. Let's not pretend it's all on Trump.