The end is in sight in Syria

Editorial comment:

IMO there is a private understanding among DJT /Putin/Iran and Bashar Assad as to the desired outcome in Syria.:

1. It is reported that the State Department and DoD were "blindsided" by Trump's instruction for them to stop supplying the SDF/YPG with arms and munitions.  This fits with information reaching me from the field that CENTCOM has been ordered to cease kinetic air operations west of the Euphrates River
2. The head of SDF/YPG has now indicated willingness to accept integration into the SAA in a post war federated Syria.
3. Avigdor Lieberman the Israeli Minister of Defense has now stated that there are no Iranian combat units in Syria only advisors, logistic people and trainers, and that Israeli concern is for a future Iranian presence.  That is a marked softening of previous Israeli positions.
4. The Astana process and a constitutional and legislative conference in Damascus seem to be making progress.
5. Putin and Assad met last week in Sochi for a "come to poppa" style meeting at which understandings were reached.
6. HTS and IS are busy chopping each other up in the giant Idlib pocket.  A clean up there can be expected once the mopping up between Deir al-Zor and Al-Qaim is completed. 
7. The Turks are reduced to muttering their usual snarls about what they expect or do not expect from people like Trump.  In this case Erdogan hints darkly at yet more ill will if the Trump allows the Kurds to be further armed.  I don't think Trump cares at all about the Kurds and no much about Turkey.  Why should he?
8. Syrian refugees are returning in large numbers from exile.

IMO the DEAL will include autonomy for the Syrian Kurds within a re-united Syria.  There will be a new constitution that will modernize a number of outdated restrictions as to inclusiveness in Syrian government.  There will then be internationally supervised national elections in which Bashar Assad will be re-elected by an electorate that includes refugees in Jordan, Turkey and Europe.  pl

 

Comments

[outthere]

Agree with all points in your outline.
BUT, I do not think USA has yet conceded the oilfields east of Euphrates, which it now occupies with SDF/YPG.
Do you really think USA/SDF/YPG cede that area as part of a deal about "integration into SAA"?
Of course I am all for reconciliation.

[turcopolier]

outthere

So, you think the US wants to steal Syria's small oil deposits and that DJT would let a grand deal go down the drain over that? pl

[turcopolier]

Sif finster

You do not understand how the US government works at the top. All these people will do what the president orders them to do. pl

[Harry]

In my worthless opinion, such a deal would vindicate the American electoral college's choice. A lot of people will be better off, even if the Saudis and some Israelis are unhappy.

[Will.2718]

An interesting tidbit that came out somewhere in the Hariri resign-unresign drama- the matter of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. They must be mostly Sunni. The Lebanese Sunna apparently don't want them to return home citing it's yet unsafe for them. Whereas the others say that is just a pretext because they want their dwindling numbers bolstered.

Another consideration sometimes cited is that the overseas Syrian vote is easier to influence or bribe w/ petrodollars.

[outthere]

that is the question
it will be the proof of any hope for Trump success

[Willybilly]

Pat, erratum... “ by an electorate that includes refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe... ( Lebanon has close to two million Syrian refugees...) thanks!

[ISL]

Dear Colonel,

Also, China has indicated that Syria is part of the Belt Road Initiative, implying Chinese investments will flow (over which the US has no control).

I revise upwards the Trump Foreign Policy - accepting a fait accompli is not something the US has done in a while... our modus operandi has been sabotage sabotage sabotage when we lose.

Perhaps surrounding himself with neocons to disarm them, and then ignoring them was the plan. Of course they will have their knives out.

[Lincolnite]

M.K.Bhadrakumar has arrived at a similar conclusion Colonel.
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2017/11/27/trumps-line-on-syria-prevails-in-washington/

[dilbert dogbert]

Or remembering Honor Duty Country and quitting or resigning.

[turcopolier]

linconite

Thie is not a parliamentary system. The president's direction always prevails when he chooses to make it clear. pl

[turcopolier]

dilbert dogbert

You can only resign once. Once they do that they are gone. What do you think threy are going to do, stage a coup? Ridiculous. pl

[turcopolier]

ISL

Adviser are just advisers. They are his creatures. pl

[blue peacock]

Col. Lang

A positive outcome after all the destruction. It looks like Putin's military intervention checkmated Obama and the neocons.

Trump may be smarter than all the NeverTrumpers believe. He sure outsmarted Hillary, the MSM and the establishment of both parties in the election.

[jpb]

Check the VVP-DJT body language at 3:30 in Da Nang: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs0LKyA9Y_Q&t=258s

Check DJT twitter feed on Erdogan phone call:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
Nov 24
More
Will be speaking to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey this morning about bringing peace to the mess that I inherited in the Middle East. I will get it all done, but what a mistake, in lives and dollars (6 trillion), to be there in the first place!

DJT told Erdogan the USA will stop delivery of heavy weapons to the YPG. It appears DJT is stepping down Mideast conflict with SCO alliance of Russia,
China, and Iran. DJT is a reality based high IQ capitalist who would naturally prefer business, to suicidal conflict with determined capable adversaries.

"What a mistake to be there in the first place!" I appreciate PL's comment that the US government follows the president's orders. He must have certain guarantees to risk his family and fortune to undertake an effort to "Make America Great Again". Perhaps, this explains the presence of 'The Generals' in his staff.

[The Twisted Genius]

I agree with your outline of the final deal, but your 2nd point is not as rosy as it appears in some accounts. This story stems from an interview given by Riad Darar,co-chairman of the Syrian Democratic Council, to Rudaw TV. Darar clarified his initial comments after many thought he said the YPG/SDF would integrate with the SAA under a federated Syria. He later specified that the YPG/SDF would be part of a New Syrian Army separate from the "regime army" as part of a new federated Syria. I think the Rojava Kurds want an independent Rojava with an independent foreign policy and defense force only loosely connected with Damascus. That's overly optimistic and totally unrealistic.

I bet CENTCOM is pushing that position among the YPG/SDF leadership. That's as dumb as the day is long. My fervent desire is that every Green Beret in Syria, every swinging dick one of them, is quietly preparing their Kurdish and Arab counterpart in the YPG/SDF for the demobilization phase and an integration into the SAA. Trump's instructions should bolster that course of action.

I also agree that Trump doesn't give a damn about the Kurds or Turks. I don't think he gives a damn about the Iranians, Israelis or Russians either. Nor does he care about the flyover America of his base. He cares only for himself and his brand. This total lack of ideological compass is a good thing, as opposed to his apparent total lack of a moral compass. Nothing would bolster Trump's brand and his ego more than to have a prosperous nation at peace with the world on his watch. Ideologies only get in the way of that.

[turcopolier]

TTG

IMO there is zero chance of an independent Syria Kurdish state. IMO CENTCOM will be brought heel if they get in the way of a deal. A fired and retired general is not in the least beyond Trump's reach. I am told that here is consternation in CENTCOM at the way they have been reined in. pl

[turcopolier]

Willybilly

I don't get your point. you think that Syrians in exile in Lebanon would not vote for Assad? If you think that I would say that you have been deluded by the propaganda narrative. The Baathist government always had many Sunni supporters and the SAA is mostly Sunni. pl

[GeneO]

The Syrian Kurds and the YPG have always been willing to accept Assad and integration into a Syria with Damascus leadership as long as they had some degree of local control. The Syriac militias of the SDF and the Shammar Arab tribal militias will accept the same. As for the other Arab Militias in the SDF and the Turkmen militias, they do not have much choice other than to accept.

And for the oil, look to Rosneft or other Russian oil companies to work with the Damascus on rebuilding the oilfields and putting them back into production.

[Beige Barbaria]

Col. Lang:

I hope your estimation is correct and peace in Syria will come to pass and refugees can go home.

[turcopolier]

Willybilly

Ah, I see, you buy the "b" line that Trump can be removed by the generals and the striped pants crowd at State. You don't know anything about the US government. "b" wishes to believe that our constitution is a farce and that we are a banana republic. He hates the US. Are you an American? pl

[turcopolier]

james

Attempted subterfuge is unimportant. Successful subterfuge is dangerous. When Trump orders them to do something, they will do it. You have read too many cheap novels and have watched too many half-assed movies. pl

[sillybill]

I wonder who would run against Assad in the election? I would presume that anyone from the rebel/jihadi groups would be ineligible since they took up arms against the gov. Who has the name recognition and reputation to be a credible opponent?

[Annem]

The only person I believe could challenge Assad for the presidency at this point is Soheil Hassan. He's got the charisma and is a national hero. He is an insider with the people that really call the shots within the regime. I honestly don't think that Putin is as wedded to Assad as he wants the regime to endure and maintain stability; no Iraq type state collapse. Getting rid of Assad would also allow all the "opposition" that made that a precondition for any reconciliation to participate in this scenario. Also, there are just too many Syrians from all parts of the society that suffered terribly under the Assad family over the past decades. It's hard to imagine that things would remain stable for very long and could lead to a military coup. Better that the regime shave off the very top layer like the Egyptians did by sacrificing Mubarak and his buddies, making it easy to reclaim power after the MBs blew it.

Meanwhile, Mattis et al seem not to have gotten the memo about Trump's deal since they continue to talk about a base in north eastern Syria to stop Iran's bad intentions whatever they are.

[Charles Michael]

The Russian military intervention was certainly timely and very effective
but one must not forget to give its due to the diplomatic skills of the Russians 'talking to everybody) and their constant creative but principled reactions, showing restrain and strength.