The end is in sight in Syria

Editorial comment:

IMO there is a private understanding among DJT /Putin/Iran and Bashar Assad as to the desired outcome in Syria.:

1. It is reported that the State Department and DoD were "blindsided" by Trump's instruction for them to stop supplying the SDF/YPG with arms and munitions.  This fits with information reaching me from the field that CENTCOM has been ordered to cease kinetic air operations west of the Euphrates River
2. The head of SDF/YPG has now indicated willingness to accept integration into the SAA in a post war federated Syria.
3. Avigdor Lieberman the Israeli Minister of Defense has now stated that there are no Iranian combat units in Syria only advisors, logistic people and trainers, and that Israeli concern is for a future Iranian presence.  That is a marked softening of previous Israeli positions.
4. The Astana process and a constitutional and legislative conference in Damascus seem to be making progress.
5. Putin and Assad met last week in Sochi for a "come to poppa" style meeting at which understandings were reached.
6. HTS and IS are busy chopping each other up in the giant Idlib pocket.  A clean up there can be expected once the mopping up between Deir al-Zor and Al-Qaim is completed. 
7. The Turks are reduced to muttering their usual snarls about what they expect or do not expect from people like Trump.  In this case Erdogan hints darkly at yet more ill will if the Trump allows the Kurds to be further armed.  I don't think Trump cares at all about the Kurds and no much about Turkey.  Why should he?
8. Syrian refugees are returning in large numbers from exile.

IMO the DEAL will include autonomy for the Syrian Kurds within a re-united Syria.  There will be a new constitution that will modernize a number of outdated restrictions as to inclusiveness in Syrian government.  There will then be internationally supervised national elections in which Bashar Assad will be re-elected by an electorate that includes refugees in Jordan, Turkey and Europe.  pl

 

Comments

[jsn]

It appears that Oswald was trained in ultra-high altitude radar while in the army, just before "defecting" to the USSR at just the moment Eisenhower was trying to de-escalate with Khrushchev. At that same coincidence prone moment, John Dulles, in a clear act of insubordination, continued U-2 flights Eisenhower had ordered stopped.

The Russians shot one down and lost trust in Eisenhower: Ike was furious but boxed out of acting on it by the Red Scare.

Latter, Oswald manages to get a passport home just by walking into an embassy, no questions asked and conveniently meets a bunch of Allen Dulles contacts and former neighbors when he lands in Dallas.

Can't say I blame the Donald for cleaning house at State.

[Harry]

My opinion remains as worthless, but in the net and according to the aggregation methods outlined in the American Constitution the election reflects their will, so i thank them. I understand that California took a different view in aggregate but luckily for the people of syria their votes are weighted by their electoral college representation.

[Dan Pizza Guy]

What's you take on the U.S. attack on the SAA at Deir Ezzor in 2016 shortly after Kerry made the deal with Russia to work together? Am I being too much of a cynic? I assumed either Ash Carter was trying to kill the deal, or Obama and Kerry never intended to actually go through with the deal in good faith?

Was the attack an accident as the U.S. govt and media portrayed it? Given some of the statements from Pentagon officials before the deal saying they could not see a possibility of working with Russia in Syria, i figured the attack was the "deep state" or the "borg" trying to impose their own policy. I'm not one to trust the NYTimes, but I do remember Ash Carter making statements in opposition to the deal: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/world/middleeast/syria-john-kerry.html

I just assumed at that point "the borg" decided that any deal of the sort was too much of a threat to the regime change efforts that had already been funded to the tune of many dollars and to the new cold war spending, and "accidentally" bombing the SAA at Deir Ez Zor was a gambit to prevent any new detente or cooperation with Russia?

[turcopolier]

Pizza Gut\y

Look in the archive. pl

[turcopolier]

JSN

Oswald was a nobody in the marines. Are you a troll? pl

[turcopolier]

ex-pfc chuck

How did you get that idea? From the MSM? As an example have you not noticed that he watches television news all day long. Have you missed the fact that he goes out to rub elbows with people a lot. He is not in any way a hostage possessed by his staff. pl

[Fred]

Harry,

Then you should take your opion elesewhere.

[Kooshy]

Colonel, in my understanding in past forty years 2 major events have caused first a national unity and integration among Iran and Iranians, and the second major event (war) sealed the unity of Iranians with a wide majority of western Asian minorities inclouding Shia Arabs based on common security needs for all these communities, a natural alliance. The first event that sealed the national unity to Iran was Iran and Iraq war and the one that unified the Iranians with Shia Arabs and moderate Sunnis and other minority religions of Western Asia was the war in Syria and emergence of ISIS both this events was a win against overall Neocon’ plans for greater ME. Both this events in Iran and the region are now viewed as an AMERICAN inspired plan to preserve Israel and American hegemony, it may take generations to change and wipe off this felling from the region’ streets. Who thought this will not end at US’ expense? And at what cost to US’ long term national interests ? And why 200 million
Western Asians are less beneficial to US’ national interests and security, then those of 6 million Eastern Europeans. We need a national wake up.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to The Porkchop Express 27 November 2017 at 09:28 PM

Oh indeed but that being said I'm still going to go with my personal experience of the country and my continued close contacts with the place and the people who live there over the kind of glib assertions above.

[GeneO]

Peter -

I agree they have always been the moderate opposition. But Bashar only once gave them arms (or claimed to), and that was in 2015 a year after the US intervention to help the YPG repel Daesh from Kobani. They were allies of the SAA during the lifting of the siege of Aleppo.

[turcopolier]

kooshy

If Iranians think the US caused Saddam to invade Iran they are paranoid. Nothing like that happened. pl

[capcharlie]

that movie about Binney was released in 2015, can be viewed here:
http://123netflix.com/watch/Nx4L6Kxz-a-good-american.html

[turcopolier]

willybilly

Your (Lebanese) attitude toward refugees was no different when there were only Palestinian refugees in your country. pl

[VietnamVet]

Colonel, CP and Wondook,

I hope my prophecy does not come true but, right now, one Bitcoin equals 9955.00 US Dollars.

Corporate Media, Israel-Firsters, Exxon-Mobil, Military Contractors and Globalists will not idly stand-by as America withdraws from the Middle East. Together with Brexit, the European rightward turn, the dwindling middle-class; a western bankruptcy is due because of quantitative easing and tax cuts for the rich. America will be forced to withdraw from Europe. This will be as traumatic as Germany’s defeat in WWI. Backstabbing will rip North America’s democracy apart. Only a Tyrant will keep the states united.

[Kooshy]

Colonel, during Iran Iraq war I remember majority of educated Iranians, including the western educated and even some LA type expatriates, knew that US policy on Iran is a regime change, a reversal of the revolution. At that time, if I remember correctly the question on Iranian’ mind was not why US is seeking regime change, but the real question was, at what cost to Iran and Iranians, is US willing to bring this change to Iran, the focus of question was, why US is ( internationally, polticly )protecting a brutal decorator in Iraq against every Iranian village and town for her desired regime change end result. That strategic policy mistake IMO, tarnished the US image in Iran for long time to come more than the 53 coup. Like this exact same situation, as is now going on with regard to Yemen. Do the US policy planers know what would be the US relations with Yemen if the Hutties win this war, at the western gate of Indian Ocean? And agin, this same people in this region are asking why US/west at what cost to the region and her image polticly protected, dictatorial regimes in Saudi,
Qatar and Turkey when they were founding and arming this savage head choppers,
and liver eaters. IMO we the US were fooled, and US made an strategic mistake,
we should have condemned and sanctioned those countries who financed and armed the terrorist
in Syria and Iraq, but we just condemned the terrorist and not thier enablers. That tarnished our image for long time to come at a great long term cost to no one’ benfit.

[Kooshy]

Colonel, sorry sir I didn’t mean Iranians think US asked Saddam to invade Iran, but they do question why US polticly protected him in U.N., on Sea with his oil, and shared military info with him, against Iranians? did that benefited US,? IMO that policy was a damaging long term policy mistake. Saddam invaded another country, and is now gone, US image in the region and Iran is been damaged with pro US educated Iranians, at the US’ long term strategic cost.

[turcopolier]

kooshy

We supported Iraq because the Gulf Arabs asked us to do so. In the context of the Iranian revolution the Arab request and our assistance to Iraq were understandable. pl

[FkDahl]

Britain removed the blockade of German ports in summer 1919 - causing an unknown but significant number of civilian German deaths. A war crime for sure, but the victor writes the history

[FkDahl]

A bit off topic, but where does the salafist terrorists who attacked the Sufi mosque in Egypt have their home perch, their bases or training camps? Do they have significant indigenous support from the more radical parts of the Muslim Brotherhood? Allied jihadists left over from the Libya debacle? Support from across the pond aka the Red Sea from Saudi Arabia?

[Adrestia]

Interesting exercise.

Quick and dirty so suspected trolls who are not, should not be offended when I'm wrong. Catholics can break a thick candle on my back and communists a hammer and sicle as Giovannino Guareschi stated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovannino_Guareschi

A "Troll hunter" button to inform the moderator of a possible troll could be a nice feature on a forum. Also for a forum reader to close troll-remarks from a page to avoid wasting time reading these.

Not easy to determine at a glance. Putting everything in a database to assist with analyzing (eg comparing with other posts etc) would help. IMO a few indicators can be:
* unknown poster
* name of poster
* type of argumenting (structure, grammar etc)

Exclusions for being a troll can be:
* posters who are really knowledgeable on the subjects in their reply (although these may oppose one's own opinions)
* real emotions in the postings
* correcting one's positions when wrong (eg Dubhaltach)

I never dug into the type of trolls out there so I used the list from
https://www.lifewire.com/types-of-internet-trolls-3485894
What I miss in that list but who are also present on this blog are (professional) propagandists who are trying to influence opinions. If there is a better way to categorize trolls I would be obliged.

Sid Finster
show-off, know-it-all or blabbermouth troll / or disruptive

jsn
persistent debate

Harry
odd poster. not sure what to think of it

Joseph Moroco
off topic

confusedponderer (but this could be my own prejudice)
grammar and spellcheck or exaggeration

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Probably was MSM pollution. SWMBO watches the BBC and NBC evening news programs religiously and, although I usually retreat to my cave at such times, that's not always possible or politic.

[Will.2718]

The Escalation Ladder: I imagine Jack Kennedy having a bull session w/ his buddies during the Cuban Missile Crisis. If we do this, then they do that. Like a chess game- trying to think several moves ahead and see where it leads.

Have not seen much about the US/Russ Escalation ladder except at the https://thesaker.is/
He maintains the Kalibre Cruise Missiles change everything. He says the escalator would no longer involve tactical nukes right away. The Kalibres have great range and the US carriers are retaliatory, sitting ducks, or so he says.

And air superiority is a big question? For sure, the US imposed a lower altitude NFZ over Albukamal/Abukamal, and the Russ had to use hi altitude bombers instead of close air support. And what about the S400's? The Israelis are able to lob missiles into Syria. Either the Russians don't care or the trajectories or geometry just not right? There's a lot of buzz that WW2 radar frequencies can detect Stealth, though not precisely enough for targeting. But there are other systems- infrared, optical. Is the F22 vulnerable? A bird of beauty but needs a lot of maintenance. Then there's the Israeli F-35 that was grounded for a while after an aerial encounter with what they said was a "bird?" Then there's all the buzz about the Russ "Zircon" hypersonic (Mach 8) missile?

And Russia is slightly more than the population of Mexico? Obama called it a "gas station" with a second rate GNP?

http://www.unz.com/tsaker/war-with-russia-two-great-american-myths/

Don't understand all the Russia hate. They are not trying to get Alaska or the Russian river back. We are no longer ideological competitors (except the US elites push the LGBTQ agenda stuff & they are culturally resistant to it). We do not compete for natural resources. It appears they want to sell their hydrocarbons to the Europeans and have tighter economic bonds with them and US policy is dead set against that. Is it mainly business competition trying to sell arms? The Chinese are greater trade competitors, aren't they? In the words of Rodney King: Why can't everybody get along? As many have said in this forum, we won the Cold War and are screwing up the Peace.
"nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant." Tacitus

[turcopolier]

Adrestia

"Troll Hunter." Great Norwegian film. pl

[Eric Newhill]

Dr Puck = professional borg agent, IMO

[capcharlie]

"I imagine Jack Kennedy having a bull session w/ his buddies during the Cuban Missile Crisis. If we do this, then they do that. Like a chess game- trying to think several moves ahead and see where it leads."

suggestion: read William R Polk
he was there with JFK during the crisis, and afterwards he set up war games about nuclear conflict, which all had the same result

http://www.williampolk.com/