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07 November 2017

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Will2.71828

hopefully the armaments of both sides have by now reached a stage of mutual deterrence. I always mention the ammonia works of Haifa, but the Col says Israel has bigger problems than that one. As Stalin famously said, quantity has a quality all of its own. And Hizb'ullah has a vast quantity of missiles- enough to overwhelm any air defense. A situation of mutually agreed rubble.

Medicine Man

I wouldn't be eager to open that door if I were in the leadership in Israel. As you say, Hezbollah has the ability to retaliate, and pressure will be on the Izzies to silence the counter batteries. They can't do that with airpower alone and I would not want to see their weekend warriors put into a ground war against Hezbollah's battle hardened forces.

Alaric

Many are talking of war. The goal here is likely to foster a civil war and economic pain in Lebanon. Jihadists, political tricks, and sanctions are the likely tools. The Israelis have no intention of getting themselves killed (that's for others) or in seeing Tel Aviv leveled and the Saudis have no real capabilities to win even next door in Yemen. They will not fight Hezbollah 1600 KM away in Lebanon and they can't bribe any other country to do so.

Beyond destabilization and economic sanctions, they may believe that they can get Trump to use US military or intelligence assets against Hezbollah in Lebanon. I'm skeptical even Trump will fall for that though he'll probably throw some money to the CIA to influence Lebanon which will do nothing.

Someone needs to give Hezbollah air defenses. Last i read the Israeli's go into Lebanese air space daily. More importantly, the Israelis will think even longer about doing something stupid if their air force is threatened. I understand that Israelis are scared but it appears as if nothing short of genocide and destruction of their neighbors will make them feel safe.

Babak Makkinejad

I do not agree, I think he and his father and their clan are much more in touch with their society than the Shah was with Iran's. That clan has to deal with Ikhwan challenge, Jihadist challenge, Arab Spring challenge, as well as those of Western Modernity and domestic rigidity. They have been gradually making movements in the direction of Liberty. For that society, some of what is occurring now is almost revolutinary - like women being able to enter stores without male accompaniment. Bahrain and Kuwait it is not.
The more grandiose plans are almost certainly just plans and dreams.

J

Colonel,
FYI:

http://thefreethoughtproject.com/leaked-secret-cable-israeli-saudi/

FourthAndLong

Well you know Nikki, and those folks in general. They would never, ever, ever lie.

I’m adding Nikki to my list of humanoid entities suspected of being made of anti-matter. Bibi has topped the list forever of late. Donald a close second. MbS recently inducted, tho we’re still hoping he’s a five-year plan style reformer. Maybe they are android prototypes — rejects most likely. Because they miserably failed human emotional simulation. Need to check the panel on the back of their necks. Poor lonely s.o.b.s.

Then there’s Hilary. Leaky batteries? No comment.

FourthAndLong

“Whoever is close to the U.S. in this period becomes divided.”

Could simply be they think schizophrenia is contagious.

Tel

You can't outsource trust, at any price.

Peter AU

Obtained by an Israeli journalist in Israel from what I can see. Nutty has opposition.

aleksandar

"So he went to the Russians for money, and they got him in return."
Do you have proofs ?

aleksandar

Houthi are shias. No they are not, they are zaidis but also sunis.
The same apply to Hezbollah that is mainly shias but you can find christians also.
ME is more complicated than Westerners think.
Simplification is always a trap.

aleksandar

Threatening Lebanon will lead to a simple effect, push Lebanon in the welcoming arms of Russia.

johnf

In case people have not been following this British scandal, a cabinet minister, Priti Patel, of the Department for International Development, was last week exposed for a secret visit to Israel. In the (likely) event of Theresa May's defenestration she is among the runners to replace her.

She failed to inform the Foreign Office or Number 10 of her visit so no security was provided, no diplomats were present or transcripts taken. The visit had been arranged by the ex-head of the Conservative Friends of Israel and she was accompanied by him throughout her several day visit. She wanted financial backing from him to run a campaign (when May falls) to become Prime Minsiter.

At first she claimed she was on holiday and just happened to run into three different influential Israelis. Then it turned out she met seven or eight, including Netanyahu. It then turned out that she had talked about using her Aid Money (meant for undeveloped countries) to pay the Israeli Army in "its work to aid Syrian refugees." Especially to support the hospitals that patch up shot up jihadis to return to the battlefield. Now its revealed that she actually visited such a hospital.

Before she could be pinned down in the House of Commons, she jumped on a plane to Uganda but was ordered to return to Heathrow by May, presumably to be sacked.

What she was involved in was borderline treason. She could have essentially become an Israeli asset operating in the heart of the British government - they had enough to blackmail her with..

This is the second attempt in under a year of the Israelis trying to directly influence the British government and parliament in its policies. Both of them have been made public. Israel is losing its touch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41904459

Fred

Clueless,

I think the Brits are seeing problems with Israel as detailed in this Daily Mail piece. It doesn't bode well for Teresa May:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5060241/Priti-Patel-faces-sack-meetings-Israeli-PM.html

ISL

Dear Colonel,


Your analysis is spot on, and you leave dangling the question for SST what will the US do?

Well, so far, I have not seen any significant initiatives of the Donald's administration in the ME. He fired a few missiles into Syria that hit virtually nothing, he completed the US anti-ISIS effort, and put the SDF in a better negotiating position, a lot of speeches, continuity in Afghanistan. Oh, and he has not landed hard on the house of Saud (unlike which president? - oh all of them!).

So it is a very big risk for Israel to think he will necessarily get involved to save their bacon. Sure Kushner would push, but I suspect the generals would counsel against - let the Izzies truly realize their own limitations on their own. Upcoming midterms, conflicts with Republican's, approval in the 30s (and the potential to lose the congressional majorities) to me says our mercurial president with his short attention span might just stand aside except for some symbolic military gestures.

Bottom line: I argue, very uncertain.

Account Deleted

Pushback in Israel yes, but also in other interesting places, like Egypt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-egypt/egypt-not-considering-measures-against-lebanons-hezbollah-cnbc-idUSKBN1D72NE

Same CNBC interview with Sisi was covered by Al-Arabiya. Oddly they just focused on the question of whether or not he may run for a second term. Perhaps they know something he doesn't.

Also, don't know if anyone else saw this, but it may be relevant in the current context. Bibi's left and right hand men; fixers, confidants (& his cousins) were both arrested on Sunday in dawn raids: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/israel-germany-egypt-benjamin-netanyahu-yitzhak-molcho.html. What's the Hebrew for "drain the swamp"?

English Outsider


Bill Herschel - might I ask for confirmation on a couple of points:-

1. "So he (Trump) went to the Russians for money, and they got him in return."

My understanding is that foreign money has been looking for a safe haven in the States. And that in order to get the money into the States the lenders are prepared to accept a higher level of risk than the domestic banks will accept. The resultant flow of money, particularly from China and Russia, is apparently substantial, here in Europe as well as in the United States.

I happen to believe that this flow is highly undesirable in that it distorts local property markets and is also not always beneficial to the country the investments come from, but that belief is not relevant here. What I have not heard is that this flow of money results in political pressure being applied to the recipients. For those recipients it's just a source of finance like any other, though perhaps easier to tap. Now that one such recipient has become the President of the United States might I ask, is there any evidence that this otherwise routine commercial transaction is now being used as a means of pressuring the President?

2. ""Guess what Donald. We (the Saudis) will pay your debts, but you do as we say."

Except of course in the case of our own dear Queen I'm prepared to believe just about anything said of the world of high finance; but even so it's fair to expect at least some evidence. Where is the evidence for this?

So that's two questions, Bill. Where's the evidence that the President's former sources of investment finance are now pressuring him on behalf of the Russian Government? Where is the evidence that the Saudis have bought and paid for your President?

Thomas

"The Israelis have no intention of getting themselves killed (that's for others) or in seeing Tel Aviv leveled and the Saudis have no real capabilities to win even next door in Yemen."

Intentions of Creative Reality Imperialists can quickly be turned into a pile of dust and ashes when the factor of human stupidity in strategic matters leads them to act, only to witness the true effects of reality on their false desires.

"Someone needs to give Hezbollah air defenses."

Their is some off shore that can be used in a pinch if the problem escalates to a need for action. Plus the persistent public rumor is they have some but will only use it if necessary.

Adrestia

Today, in the Netherlands Iranian Ahmad Mola Nissi was killed. Off course the Iranian government is blamed for this on Internet.

It is clear from which movement he is from the reports but I think the Ahwaz Liberation Organisation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_separatism_in_Khuzestan#Ahwaz_Liberation_Organisation

A minor detail is that this group was responsible for the well-known Iranian emmbassy-siege in 1980, but this will probably be ignored by the MSM.

charly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Struggle_Movement_for_the_Liberation_of_Ahwaz

They claimed to have blown up two pipelines in January

I think this is their website
http://www.ahwazna.org/index.php?&lang=2

Babak Makkinejad

Please see below interview with Ambassador Sadeghi:

http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/page/1973050/%D8%B3%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%88%DB%8C+%D9%BE%D9%87%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C+%D8%AF%D8%B1+%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86+%D8%AA%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1+%D9%86%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF.html

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