« Thoughts about Donna Brazile By Richard Sale | Main | Tillerson’s Trip & the new Great Game (FB Ali) »

07 November 2017


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

The Porkchop Express

Saw this this am. This has been clear as day for a while.

Though, it is surprising this would leak. Israel is pretty good about keeping things shtum. Have to wonder if there is some pushback on Bibi's lunacy.



Wider moves are afoot, according to the Turkish Journalist Ibrahim Karagul. He speculates that these are the 1st moves in an alliance that will lead to war with Iran and potentially divide Saudi Arabia.

"a new “security shield” that completely prioritizes Israel’s security interests, that is focused on re-establishing the U.S.’s power in the Middle East, is being built under the guidance of the United Arab Emirates and leadership of the U.S. and Israel.



There are some press reports that Yemenis have threatened to send the next missile to Dubai. That would be an eye-opener for the Gulf. Burqan-2 certainly has that range. No info available on whether those threats are from official sources, or from angry low level tweeters.


Would US 5th Fleet naval base in Bahrain be threatened next? Probably not as the majority of Bahrainis are Shiites.

Where are the Burqan launchers being hidden. The sky of Yemen is full of Saudi and UAE aircraft plus the US intel community is certainly sharing overhead imagery. Those Yemeni SSM units must be masters of camo.

Jane's has an interesting link on Yemeni SSMs. Jane's insight is that the Burqan was locally developed, probably with major modifications to SCUD airframe and warhead.



IHS Janes has an analysis of the Yemeni missiles. Basically - Soviet and North Korean Scuds of various types modified in Yemen to get to a longer range. No Iranian missiles through modification expertise from Iran may have been consulted:

Yesterday the Yemeni forces also showed off anti-ship cruise missiles of the C-801 variant. These are Chinese made and were bought way back by Saleh. When they will be used the Saudis will claim they are newer C-802 and thus from Iran.

As for Netanyahoo playing Trump, Kushner and MbS.

What is the role of MbZ of the Emirates in this? He is the mentor of MbS and probably too smart to fall for Netanyahoo's play. What is his aim?


way off topic, but of interest
Binney met with Pompeo about the DNC leak/hack.
Long article with high bias against Binney.
“I was willing to meet Pompeo simply because it was clear to me the intelligence community wasn’t being honest here,” Binney said, referring to their assessment of the DNC email theft. “I am quite willing to help people who need the truth to find the truth and not simply have deceptive statements from the intelligence community.”

The Beaver

Here goes Nikki:

on cue from her master in Israel.

Account Deleted
Jakob Trägårdh

Channel 10 News (Israel) has a leaked story, brought to us in english via Zerohedge site: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-07/leaked-secret-israeli-cable-confirms-israeli-saudi-coordination-lebanon


If Russia showed up to the party for Syria, there is no doubt in my mind that Iran is not something they would be willing to put on the table. The Saudis are making a big error here and will make their contribution soon.

If I were Iran, I would start by sinking MBS's $600M yacht. That would be viral news.

Allen Thomson

> Saudi Arabian intelligence is a joke.

Tangential to the point of your posting, but why is that?

The Saudis seem to be reasonably well connected in the world and have a lot of money to buy services from elsewhere if they need them.

Ishmael Zechariah

re: "In Bibi World an optimum outcome would be for the US and Israel to destroy Hizbullah's strategic rocket and missile forces using US strategic air and cruise missile assets and then move on to wrecking Iran."
Colonel Lang,
Would you consider running a war-game on SST examining this scenario? It seems probable that such a gambit could spell the end of both israel and ksa, and trigger a global SHTF event. Perilous times.
Ishmael Zechariah


Colonel, I remember and I am sure you do too, back in 78, a few months before Shah leaves Iran for a permanent exile and for the last time, he thought he can calm the streets by purging and rounding up his top aids and prominent rich businessmen including his long term naive prime minster for charges of corporations. Like Iran back than, recent Saudi events doesn’t seem like a healthy stable state. Sudden purge of clerics, speaking of being moderate, allow some freedom to youth, sounds like the youth there are firing up like Iran 78. I guess CIA station there must be running on multiple OTs if they have it right this time, unlike thier time with shah’.


Allen Thomson

In my experience of them they are not culturally advanced enough to handle the organizational processes needed to cultivate in various collection, analytic and dissemination issues needed to have worthwhile intelligence produced. In my experience of them, positive intelligence for them consists of people sitting around in MODA offices clipping newspaper articles and putting them in manila folders. For the Saudis and many other people "intelligence" means secret police work. As to hiring the talent, they don't because they fear such people. pl


Iran needs not to do anything to distablize KSA, MbS is doing a great job for them.
I am sure if not attacked Iran will do nothing.



I really don't see what the CIA has to do with this other than as YOUR bugaboo. IMO this is about Kushner and Bibi. pl


Indeed. Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

Clueless Joe

"I would bet my own money that Kushner's phone and E-mail traffic would be very interesting to read."
Funny how it's only collusion and treason when it's related to Russia, but no one in MSM or national politics dares to raise an eyebrow when it's related to Israel.


Personally don't like Goldman aka Spengler of the Asia Times, but I have learned from the Col. to evaluate the facts/ideas separately from the source. After discounting his bias, interest, and prejudices. I see that he makes some good points.

"A senior Chinese official complained that the Saudi royal family funds every radical madrassa in Xinjiang province, where Muslim Uyghurs of Turkish ethnicity form the majority. .... The Chinese official said, “We talk to the Saudis all the time, and they say they will have nothing to do with it. But this is not a government. It is a family! Some crazy cousin is always sending money to terrorists through informal finance channels. ....Now it appears that Saudi Arabia has a government, thanks to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s weekend purge of the royal family"

He makes the point that the "night of the long knives" followed a visit to Russia and thereby probably has a trifecta of blessing from the Americans, Russia, & Chinese. The Russians are tickled pink at anything that will increase oil prices, the Chinese are happy over the prospect of tighter control of Salafi financial support, and Trump is happy b/c Jared is pleased that KSA is on board with the Israeli agenda.

In other news, it appears that King Salman will be stepping down imminently so MBS can ascend the throne.

The Turks, Iran, Hisbullah, & Lebanon will not be happy. There remains the problem of the Saudi caused misery in Yemen, the trapped Salafists in Idlib, & uppity Qatar. UAE is pleased as MBS is their protege. MBS will have to come up with a plan to get the Shia of the Eastern province on his side.

My take, is per the Lindy effect, much talked about by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, if MBS makes it past the next 30 days, then he is likely to make it past his first year.


Colonel, after the Iranian revolution during the 1980 elections, the debate here was who
lost Iran, some belived CIA relied too much on the Savak and didn’t reach to ooosition and was out of touch with coming revolution, and couldn’t foresee the coming revolt.
I mean if infact the KSA’ under surface politics is unstable, and youth there is gearing for revolt, IC should be prepared and try to prevent.



US diplomats or military people meeting off duty with saudis are expelled from the country. pl


Pepe Escobar gets the inside details of the Saudi purge...

The inside story of the Saudi night of long knives

With regard to the CIA...


Nayef – who replaced Bandar – is close to Washington and extremely popular in Langley due to his counter-terrorism activities. His arrest earlier this year angered the CIA and quite a few factions of the House of Saud – as it was interpreted as MBS forcing his hand in the power struggle.

According to the source, “he might have gotten away with the arrest of CIA favorite Mohammed bin Nayef if he smoothed it over but MBS has now crossed the Rubicon though he is no Caesar. The CIA regards him as totally worthless.”

End Quote


Colonel sir, in that case, god saves us all, as I think a SOB MbS is much much preferred to SOB ObL.
If duplicate please disregard.


Colonel, BTW, looks like his the first time me and John Bolton have the same idea on anything.

"US needs contingency plan for 'Shah of Iran scenario' in Saudi Arabia: Amb. Boltonhttp://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/11/07/us-needs-contingency-plan-for-shah-iran-scenario-in-saudi-arabia-amb-bolton.html

Medicine Man

Reading the comments in that article on Spengler is an interesting activity. Goldman is pretty gay for Israel. He's in the comments thread arguing that they'll turn Lebanon into a pile of rubble and that Condi Rice held Olmert back in 2006. Quite a spectacle.

Bill Herschel

The most interesting question is, "What happened to Donald Trump when he was elected?" During the primaries, Donald mocked McCain for having been a prisoner of war, said W's invasion of Iraq was the worst mistake made by a President, and generally dismissed the Republican establishment. Then he got elected and suddenly he was the ME's latest war monger. And Iran was the center of all evil.

Here's what happened. Donald had declared bankruptcy five times. The banks no longer wanted to lend to him. He was a deadbeat. So he went to the Russians for money, and they got him in return.

Then he got elected President. What was the establishment to do? Simple. Give the Saudi's a call and tell them to make Donald whole. Donald's first visit as President was to SA. He does the sword dance with them, and they tell him "Guess what Donald. We will pay your debts, but you do as we say." And Donald, with his tongue hanging out, says where do I sign?

KSA calls Bibi and asks him what he wants. Presto! We have the new Donald. Recent events suggest that SA, seeing how easy it was to buy Donald, are feeling their oats. Sure they say, "How high", when Bibi says jump, but still they want to get some of their own weight into the ring. I guess my question is how closely are SA and Bibi working together? If intelligence is not SA's strong suit, they might get something wrong.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

February 2021

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Blog powered by Typepad