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11 November 2017

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james

good~! how does this go over with turkey? anyone have any thoughts? thanks..

b

The wannabe Ottoman Sultan has told the al-Qaeda Uighurs of the TIP he had earlier shipped to Syria to leave the Idleb region towards the Turkish occupied region further east.

Preserving his forces from the oncoming storm ...

ISL

Dear Colonel,

"Turkey's military began setting up observation posts in Idlib last month "

https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2017/11/11/operations-in-idlib-afrin-target-terrorist-threats-erdogan-says

Do you think that the reason R+6 left Idlib alone for the last year was to avoid a confrontation with Turkey at the same time the R+6 was tackling ISIS in the east? Or do you think it was more to secure the Syria / Iraq border and deny the US a foothold in eastern Syria? Or another reason.

Meanwhile (same article), Turkey seems to have decided to go after the SDF in Afrin and perhaps move out of idle.

FourthAndLong

Of related interest, Colonel:

http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/159988-171111-islamic-state-re-takes-control-of-albu-kamal-from-regime-forces

Report ISIS recaptured Albu Kamal — Saturday.

Peter AU

A couple of the recent headlines at AMN
"Ahrar Al-Sham prepares to join war against HTS in west Aleppo"
"Trouble in jihadist paradise as HTS, Zinki Movement fight each other in west Aleppo"

I believe Ahrar Al Sham are the next most powerful group in Idlib after AQ.
It looks like HTS is being isolated and the Idlib offensive may well concentrate on them.

Peter AU

The one man information centre in Coventry has been reasonably accurate with virtually real time reports from any point in Syria. He seems to be a front for the so called global coalition rather than just MI6.
There has been reports of heavy fighting in the area, and also a number of Russian SF units moved to the area.

robt willmann

Vladimir Putin was asked at the close of the economic summit about what he and president Trump talked about during the apparently brief times they spoke at the conference. According to the English translation in a video of his answer, Putin refers to a joint statement on fighting terrorism, and says that people were working on it ahead of the summit. Then, Sergey Lavrov and Rex Tillerson talked about issues that arose after the text was submitted by the people working on it in advance. Putin and Trump approved the statement, released on Saturday, 11 November 2017. Putin's answer and the question asked are here--

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amlb2dw0OgU

The joint statement of the U.S. and Russia is here--

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/11/275459.htm

The statement is pretty good, and paragraph 4 is loaded up with: "The Presidents affirmed their commitment to Syria’s sovereignty, unity, independence, territorial integrity, and non-sectarian character, as defined in UNSCR 2254...."

Something not publicized (at least in the U.S.) showed up in paragraph 6, which talked about a "Memorandum of Principles" concluded in Amman, Jordan, on 8 November 2017, between Russia, the U.S., and Jordan. It refers to the "ceasefire initiative" and "ceasefire arrangement", which is probably about the area near Jordan. I have not been able to find a copy of the document, but it was mentioned in a "Background Briefing on the Joint Statement by the President of the United States And the President of the Russian Federation on Syria", which was held on 11 November 2017 by teleconference--

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/11/275463.htm

Here is a part about the "memorandum of principles" with Jordan; the quote from the unnamed "senior state department official one" is kind of long, but without the document itself, it is all I have been able to find at this time--

"The second area of the statement [the joint statement of 11 November about Syria cited above] is the de-escalation of the civil war and de-escalation zones, particularly the southwest. The presidents welcomed and endorsed, importantly, the U.S.-Russia-Jordan Memorandum of Principles, what we call the MOP, for de-escalation in southwest Syria. And this document was initialed on Wednesday night, November 8th, in Amman, Jordan. This understanding builds on and expands the July 7th ceasefire arrangement finalized during the last meeting between President Trump and President Putin in Hamburg, Germany, in July.

"So the memorandum builds on the ceasefire arrangement really in three important areas. Let me just break them down.

"First, the memorandum initialed in Amman earlier this week gives greater definition to the rules and mechanisms to monitor and strengthen the ceasefire and related efforts like humanitarian assistance. And while not perfect, the ceasefire that was put in place in July has largely held. Violence in this area has been significantly reduced, and thousands of Syrian families have returned to their homes. The presidents also recognized the work of U.S., Jordanian, and Russian military and diplomatic professionals and what we call the Amman Monitoring Center, which maintains contact with the many actors on the ground to prevent violations of the ceasefire and address them when they occur.

"Second, the memorandum initialed in Amman and endorsed by the presidents today reflects the trilateral commitment that existing governance and administrative arrangements in opposition-held areas in the southwest will be maintained during this transitional phase. In other words, the opposition is not surrendering territory to the regime, deferring those questions of longer-term political arrangements to the political process under UN Security Council Resolution 2254. So this is an important principle that the memorandum initialed in Amman memorializes and the presidents confirmed.

"Third and perhaps most important, the MOP, what we call the MOP, enshrines the commitment of the U.S., Russia, and Jordan to eliminate the presence of non-Syrian foreign forces. That includes Iranian forces and Iranian-backed militias like Lebanese Hizbollah as well as foreign jihadis working with Jabhat al-Nusrah and other extremist groups from the southwest area. These elements – these extremists groups and these foreign-backed militias – have used the Syrian conflict over the last five years to increase their presence in this part of Syria, which has undermined the ceasefire and poses a threat to Jordan and Israel. So we think this principle is quite important and it is enshrined in the agreement reached this week."

Ishmael Zechariah

b,
I think you are imputing too much into tayyip's plans; he cannot commit Turkey to a war either w/ R+6, or with the US w/o serious problems within Turkey. He can attack separatist kurds-and he might do so. IMO he is trying to survive any which way, nothing more.
If you remember tayyip&co. went into Syria per the behest of the Yinon plan writ large; he was encouraged in this delusion by Fortress West; at one point he had dreams of being the "Eş-Başkan (co-president)" of the “Great Middle East Project". Per this vector he was on the side of the separatist kurds, democracy, equal rights, EU... all the bullsxxt purveyed by the Masters of the Universe®. This plan failed due to efforts of R+6 and SAA; in a panic tayyip strayed off the reservation, and got into trouble with his paymasters, there was an attempted “coup” and we arrive at today. At this point tayyip is doing everything he can to avoid being on the losing side. He must try to avoid the appearance of a double cross of those he sent to Idlib-they are well-armed, well-trained and fanatical. I think the end-game for tayyip is approaching. It will be interesting to watch.
Ishmael Zechariah

b

ISIS had left Abu Kamal but some commandos slipped back after the main Syrian force moved away from the town they had been perceived as captured and cleared.

It will take a few more days to root ISIS out but the inevitable result will be their defeat.

There are also rumors that Baghdadi is in the area. Lots of R6+1 special forces seem to engaged there in some kind of search operation.

Babak Makkinejad

He was betrayed, in his mind, by the Olympians. On the other hand, the Olympians never considered him more than a nokar - as is said in Persian.

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