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19 November 2017

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james

thanks pat... sounds like the usa is doing its best to mess up any possibility of a sovereign syria.. i guess that goes with what the usa has become on the international scene for however many years..

Liza

Thank you so much for this update, Col. Lang. This website one of very few accurate sources of information about the conflict in Syria, so you perform an invaluable service.

I was hoping that you might be able to briefly answer a question: what is the status of Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Basically, 1) what are the sizes of their forces and 2) where are they fighting ?

turcopolier

Liza

IMSWAG, the Iranians have maybe 2 thousand men in Syria and Hizbullah 5,00 or so. pl

r whitman

Are these positions static or can we expect significant changes in the next year or so. Would you or any correspondent to this bog hazard a guess.

GeneO

What's next? If I were king Idlib would be next. Plus close the Mayadin/Bukamal pocket along the Euphrates. Then sniff out the daesh and HTS sleeper throughout the country.

Richardstevenhack

Southfront has put up a really excellent 45-minute long documentary on Hizballah which I advise everyone to view. They analyze the history, organizational structure, and military capabilities of Hizballah including the training of Hizballah cadres and the indoctrination of youth members, as well as the history of its influence in the region.

SouthFront Documentary about Hezbollah (MUST SEE!)
http://thesaker.is/southfront-documentary-about-hezbollah-must-see/

Two points:

1) I was a bit surprised that the total strength of the Hizballah "army" is estimated at over 60,000 including reserves. They also have their own tank regiment now and more extensive artillery units than they had in 2006, as a result of their involvement in Syria. They also have ATGM anti-tank missiles mounted on all terrain vehicles.

2) They have been restructuring their missile arsenal, swapping out older Russian and Chinese rockets by using them up in Syria and replacing them with more modern Iranian and Syrian missiles. They are estimated to be able to deliver 1,600 rockets a day into Israel as compared with 200 in the 2006 war and probably cover most of Israel with those missiles.

Due to extensive video buffering, I'd suggest downloading the file from the download button available. Be warned that the file is about 1GB, so depending on your DSL or cable speed it could take anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour to download.

Mike

The real issue will be, once the pockets within the SAA controlled areas are settled and or controlled, thereby significantly increasing available manpower, what will happen to the eastern bank of the Euphrates Dier Ezzor province. The SDF neither has the manpower nor the will to hold traditionally Arab lands. No amount of American money and promises can prompt them to hold an area they are unwanted in. There is no way the US generals will be able/or willing to train and equip what is basically defeated ISIS troops. Or do I give them too much credit? I see the Russians/SAA cutting a revenue deal with the SDF much to the chagrin to the US. The history of the region is buying loyalty and negotiating the cost. The House of Saud is in no position to dispense such largess that widely.

Babak Makkinejad

And they are 10-feet tall.

turcopolier

r qhitman
I don't think the situation is static. pl

eakens

Iran has lost over 1K soldiers in Syria. I would think that the native Iranian contingent is larger than 2K men.

turcopolier

eakens

Why? They keep replacing people. I haven't seen any big actions that were fought by major Iranian units. pl

james

full blown terrorists too according to the saudis, israelis and usa... funny how that works..

james

you'd be surprised... the usa has managed to stay in just about every area they apparently are upholding justice and blah, blah, blah for how many years in iraq, afganistan and lord knows just about everywhere else on the planet... don't count on the usa disappearing when they have saudi/israels position to look after..

aleksandar

Maybe this will help to find data
Fatemiyoun are afghans
Zaynabiyoun are Pakistanis
Haydariyoun are Iraqis
IRGC are Iranians Hezbollah are Lebanese,Syrian,Iraqi

aleksandar

Iranian advisers are in Syria since 2011.An average of 150 KIA each years. Take into account possible multiple KIA due to arty strikes. Not so much. The only case of iranian soldiers heavily involved in action seems to be Al Bukamal liberation.

aleksandar

Operation ongoing in BeitJinn pocket/
Syria|n Government take control over “Kafr Hawr” village in frame-work of reconciliation with militants. • “Beit Tema” & “Beit Saber” are in process of reconciliation (truce).
IMO we will see more and more reconciliation process as the demise of HTS will be more and more obvious.

Adrestia

There are more cargo flights from Iran than a month ago. About 180 tons/day now to 140 tons/day before.

IMO the cause is the increased tension in Lebanon, but it could also be for Syria.

Adrestia

or download it from youtube. The following download is much smaller (169Mb)
https://tinyurl.com/ybrkoasf

If this doesn't work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzBZpNxkui8

confusedponderer

Adrestia,
that's an interesting number you mention - 160 or 140 tons a day by air freight? What's the problem?

Ah well. It is a problem if one boldly assumes that if Iran transports any freight, then must be a threat, or so I assume. After all, Iran is evil, and whenever they act, they do act evil.

But then, logistically speaking, is that load you mentioned - 140 to 160 tons a day - so much, and that much?

Assumption:
Just to get things into perspective - to carry 140 or 160 tons of load ... well, I wonder ... I assume it would take - what - some 10 to 15 trucks from Turkey to transport an amount like that. To do that, the US would only need to use, say, just three C-17 transports.

Now, of course, the US would only transport aid, clothing, food and medicine.

And, of course, since Turkey is so much a NATO partner (who just deliberately dumbly withdrew troops from a NATO exercise in Norwegen) and interested in peace that's not happening ... well, and even if it happens the Turks most certainly would only transport things that Syrians REALLY need - food, cookies, posters of Lord Erdogan, turkish flags, korans, clothing and medicine. To get the idea:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-arms/exclusive-turkish-intelligence-helped-ship-arms-to-syrian-islamist-rebel-areas-idUSKBN0O61L220150521

Now, if Iran transports anything, it's the beginning of the end of the world. Of course. NATO and the US would never ever do such things.

turcopolier

aleksander
I judge the Iranian presence in Syria to be about; training, advice and logistics with only a few small combat units present. There seem to be some Iranians engaged in direct combat at Abu Kamal and west of Khanassar. pl

turcopolier

eakens

Are these casualties KIA? pl

turcopolier

All

My estimate on Iranian numbers in Syria is based on IRGC and Iranian Army personnel, not Shia militias. pl

kooshy

Colonel from what I read in Iranian news your estimate is correct, volunteers, Afghans and other shia participants are not officially counted in or considered as Iranian Artesh or IRGC troops. sounds like the south flank attack and capturing of Al Bukamal was commanded /coordinated by General Sulimani, he just visited the troops there.

Adrestia

You assume a lot.

I don't imply anything. Its just what I notice. Its more now than last month. BTW part is done by the Syrian Air Force, so IMO military equipment or people.

These are regular logistical routes by air for high priority freight (or people) I've posted this before. BTW its more than the Russians transport each day.


Adrestia

The Russians and the Iranians are ALL the cargo flights that go to Syria. But then again you probably knew that. When they increase structurally in frequency IMO it is significant.

The Iranians can put everything on a ship. Sail past Yemen, have a friendly tea with the Saudi's, to the Suez canal past Israel and unload in Lebanon or Syria. Israel won't bother them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_flotilla_raid

Maybe its better when the take the route around Africa. Who cares about a few weeks?

Or put everything in trucks. Nothing will happen en route. The Turks or the Kurds or the US wont mind. Always handy to get some biometric scans and the ability to inspect and maybe alter the cargo.

BTW 3 C17s is a lot outside a major US airbase. When there are 3 C17 flights a day to another place, you can bet something is happening or will happen soon.

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