Drums Along the Euphrates - TTG

Earlier today this tweet by Elijiah Magnier caught my eye.

“USA protects SDF and ISIS east of the Euphrates and agreed that Russia won't fly over the area occupied by the US Forces in north-east Syria. USA is officially an occupation force in the Levant.”

Seems the US and Russia have agreed to using the Euphrates as a de facto border between the SAA and its allies and the US-supported YPG/SDF… at least for a while. This is in line with statements made by Tillerson prior to the G20 summit held on 7 July in Hamburg. 

“The United States is prepared to explore the possibility of establishing with Russia joint mechanisms for ensuring stability, including no-fly zones, on the ground ceasefire observers, and coordinated delivery of humanitarian assistance” 

This temporary arrangement makes sense for Damascus. There are still plenty of fires to extinguish on Syrian territory west of the Euphrates. Why spread their forces thin again just when they are now able to concentrate their forces to address those fires. Besides, there is still plenty of time for the negotiation and reconciliation process to achieve victory without further bloodshed. I have no doubt. Syria will be whole once again.

I’m sure CENTCOM sees this differently. I think the grand scheme was to establish an enduring US-controlled enclave encompassing all of Iraqi Kurdistan, Rojava and the Arab lands of eastern Syria. I bet there was a plan for establishing a new CENTCOM forward headquarters in Erbil to oversee this vast enclave. The premature Kurdish bid for independence blew a gaping hole in that plan. Iraqi Kurdistan lost its border with Syria. With that loss went CENTCOM’s secure land route from Kirkuk and Erbil to its growing bases in northeast Syria.

Another purpose of this “CENTCOM Caliphate” was to prevent the establishment of a land route from Teheran to Damascus and on to Beirut. With the liberation of Abu Kamal by a combined force of SAA, IRGC, Hezbollah and allied militias, that part of the CENTCOM plan also floundered on the rocks. The presence of Qassem Soleimani at this victory must have been a bitter pill to swallow at CJTF—OIR headquarters.

Another disappointment CENTCOM must face is their now useless base at Al Tanf and the Rukban refugee camp. This base was meant to support our “moderate jihadis” and to help prevent the establishment of the Shia Crescent. Another dream dashed. We are now faced with a near abandoned base and a dire and embarrassing humanitarian crisis at Rubkan.

CENTCOM has always wanted a major physical presence in their AOR. They’ve had that for a long time now, ever since Desert Storm. Prior to that, they were bitterly jealous of EUCOM and PACOM. They would be much smarter to forgo their dreams of forward-based grandeur and return to being a CONUS-based command headquarters controlling training, exercise and limited operational deployments in their AOR. And for God’s sake, get out of Syria. Between the Astana meetings and the upcoming Sochi National Dialogue Conference, Russia has this covered.

TTG  

https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/16162/

http://theduran.com/the-trump-putin-call-summary-and-analysis/

Comments

[FB Ali]

TTG,

Thank you for another review of the situation in Syria. These are very useful in following what is going on there. Your comments on these events are also very worthwhile.

[VietnamVet]

TTG & Beaver

Thanks. It simply is impossible for the western governing elite to back down. They are raising the stakes. Almost 50,000 troops can do a lot of mischief and will keep the gulf monarchs from attacking each other. But, against 81 million Iranians they would do squat. The Iranian militias will open a land line from Lebanon to Iran. Protecting Shia homes and towns is why they are fighting and dying. Only Israel has an army to do something about it. To date, Bibi has held back from opening the gates of hell. Only a Middle East peace treaty and secure federated nations can lock the doors.

[kooshy]

Sochi vs Riyadh?

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SochiSummit?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Alaric]

So how will the Syrian gov retrieve those eastern area that are now occupied by the SDF? I doubt the US gov will remove its troops unless it is forced to do so.

[GeneO]

SAA, or to be more specific the Syrian NDF, have also incorporated tribal militias formerly allied with IS.

[JohnB]

Alaric

I am more hopefully than you in that regard. The negotiations on Syria will mover fairly quickly in 2018. Putin has given the POTUS a 'Golden Bridge' to escape Syria with a level of dignity. A bridge that is not really deserved but Putin is a pragmatist, lets hope the Administration are wise enough to cross it.

The Kurds will get some sort of cultural & political automomy within a United Syria out of the deal. Foreign and Defence policy will remain with Damascus, as it should be.

Maybe we will see a Confederate States of Syria emerge in a generation or a Syrian Commonwealth that includes Lebanon.

[Jon Rudd]

In regard to that last point:
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/translated-doc-debunks-narrative-of-al-qaeda-iran-alliance/

[el sid]

Sort of related, since we're talking about Syria.

Revelations of a High-Profile Qatari Official Reveal a Wider anti-Syria Conspiracy
https://journal-neo.org/2017/11/18/revelations-of-a-high-profile-qatari-officials-reveal-a-wider-anti-syria-conspiracy/

It seems that for some odd reason the former Prime Minister of Qatar has suddenly decided to spill the beans to the BBC of how and why the usual suspects decided to initiate ths Syrian "Civil War".

Read and enjoy.

[sid_finster]

I don't think Trump has sufficient authority to take that exit ramp.

[Procopius]

"The common denominator amongst Trump appointees is their hatred of Israel." You think McMaster and Mattis are not sworn to defend Israel against all enemies, including American? What color is the sky on your planet? Both are dedicated to promoting war with Iran.

[Procopius]

The stock market has no effect on the economy. The stock market is barely affected by the economy. While there is some correlation between expected future profits and stock prices, stock markets are nut used to allocate capital.