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08 November 2017


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Christian Chuba

Netanyahu's encouragement of the KSA's effort in Yemen is especially repulsive. Even if the KSA succeeded (they won't unless their goal is mass starvation) it does so little to reduce Iran but so much to harm a multitude of civilians. Israelis talk about the horrors of genocide (and yes, the Holocaust was hideous), for them to have a Prime Minister condoning one is especially loathsome. Netanyahu is an evil, despicable person.


How does the saying go? 'With friends like these, ... ?' In this case the friends or allies of the US are the House of Netanyahu and the House of Saud. We need this with foes like Putin's Russian and Xi's China? Sure we do.

David Ignatius was Interviewed by Charlie Rose. Presented last night. You can catch it here:


It's wide ranging but focuses on MbS and Saudi Arabia. Yes, he is quite concerned. He's met MbS more than once and gives his impressions. (Brash, impulsive, sucks the air out of a room ... ). Recommend.


I was saying this was going to be in the cards eventually since the last time Israel invaded Lebanon, 2006.

I've also been saying it since it became a foregone conclusion that Syria with the aid of Russia, Iran and Hizballah sealed ISIS' and Al Qaeda's fate in Syria.

The Saudi's aren't really very significant, except to the degree that they exercise influence over the US foreign policy.

Israel is another matter. As they've said, they can get 60 Senators to sign on to anything the Israelis write on a napkin.

At the moment, the cable suggests that Israel is using pressure to try to get Hizballah taken down in Lebanon. That's not going to happen.

So the next step will be to produce a "pretext" for another Israeli invasion of Lebanon. But since Israel probably knows that it can't defeat a very much stronger Hizballah than it was in 2006, they're going to have to get the US to join in. So the "pretext" will have to be something that Trump can latch onto.

This "Hizballah fired an Iranian missile from Yemen" ain't gonna cut it. Too many people know that is complete BS. The US will line up behind it because, well, Iran, but it's not enough to get Trump to call out the Pentagon and start planning an air campaign against Hizballah.

So the question becomes: What will Israel do next? A false-flag terror attack against US assets to be blamed on Hizballah? Do you remember the Israelis caught filming the World Trade Center attack on 9/11 and high-fiving each other?



Have you no poetry in your "soul?" pl


Y'all are analysts -- I'm not.
But -- how did that very important document find the light of day?
Why should we not think that it's disinformation?
True, observable behavior points in the direction the cable recites; doesn't that tend to suggest the Actors are providing Hot Information! to support what observers think they know already?




An Israeli TV station (10) received the document from an unknown source (to us) and broadcast it on the air as well as posted it on the website. I have not heard of the arrest for fraud of the station or the Israeli journalist. Have you? pl

Bill Herschel

60 Senators? The other forty have bird flu? Try 100 Senators. The same 100 Senators (or thereabouts) who signed the sanctions against Russia bill.

Bill Herschel

And, to continue, 100 Senators would be nice, but they've already capitulated. Save actually picking up a weapon, any weapon, flying to the banks of the Litani, parachuting in, and charging Hezbollah themselves, they are already all in.

No, it's U.S. infantry they're after. In the current state of disarray of the Trump administration, I strongly suspect that Trump himself, short of..., is all in.

But they want U.S. troops. I wonder if they'll get them. I tend to doubt it. Far easier to just make up something about NK and attack, thus loosing the four horsemen of the apocalypse than getting American troops into Lebanon. Does anyone think that's possible?


If you're not an analyst, then what may I ask are you?

The intrigue within Israeli milieu is snarky at times, and abysmal at others. This one happens to be both.

Babak Makkinejad

Aurangzeb also tried moderate Islam, once he died, that was the end of moderation among Mughal rulers of India.


An observation on inside Lebanon Shia Sunni situation, after Hariri's' resignation, this author believes it has backfired on Saudis.



Below is a quote from https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171108-us-faith-groups-publish-statement-defending-right-to-boycott-israel/

"US faith groups have published a statement in support of the right to boycott, asserting that the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign is protected by the First Amendment.

The statement was backed by the Presbyterian Church USA, United Church of Christ, Alliance of Baptists, American Friends Service Committee and dozens of other faith organisations.

“We are alarmed by legislation recently passed in a number of states penalising participation in the nonviolent, grassroots Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement for Palestinian rights,” the groups said, “and by similar legislation that is proposed in the US Congress.”

Mainline Christian denominations like the United Methodist Church, the Presbyterian Church (USA), the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, the United Church of Christ and the Mennonite Church USA, have all adopted boycotts and other economic tools in support of Palestinians.

Said Tarek Abuata, executive director of Friends of Sabeel, North America: “We unequivocally oppose any attempts by our state or federal governments to deny us the opportunity to express our faith-inspired convictions that Israeli settlements built on occupied Palestinian land in violation of longstanding official US policy and international law, its destruction of Palestinian homes, severe restrictions on Palestinian movement, and other human rights abuses are morally wrong and a major impediment to peace.”


There is actually a crowd-funded project to create a perfect red heifer via CRISPR gene editing.


Col, to what extent can the conditions within the kingdom withstand the stresses and consequences of high stakes power politics, possibly war?

Peter AU

The interesting part is the actual leak itself. Disinformation? or dissent within the camp?

Yeah, Right

It has to be said that the Saudi accusations are ludicrously hypocritical.

After all, the Iranians did not order the Lebanese Prime Minister to fly to Tehran, and then force him to read a resignation letter on Iranian television that he did not write.

It was the Saudi's who did all that, and more, which is bad enough. But the icing on the cake is to inflict those humiliations upon Harari and *then* shout that this is evidence of.... Iranian interference in Lebanese affairs.

It is obvious that the not-quite-secret collusion between Israel and Saudi Arabia goes way deeper than anyone expected - it must also include lessons in chutzpah.



Here is IMO a good article highlighting the 'marriage' between Tel Aviv and Riyadh, that shows when one looks at Riyadh they see Tel Aviv and visa versa:



Peter AU

I vote for dissent withing the camp. Governments do not normally willingly release material this damaging. pl



IMO it is quite possible that the kingdom might collapse under this stress tesr. I wrote a piece a couple of years ago asking if SA would survive the Yemen War. pl



But, you have to be careful, the manufactured RH might be transgender. pl



There are those foolish enough to think that I am an artist with words. What kind are you? pl

The Beaver

@ C Chuba

As his remarks about the "resignation" of Hariri:


The Beaver

UK's Nikki Haley:

Fortunately, she got caught and was forced to resign yesterday. It was funny to read that UK citizens were following her trip home to be sacked: Nairobi-London.
For those who don't know about her:

On other news:
and the same reporter who divulged the cable on Twitter wrt Saudi-Israel :


Trump is counting on Saudi Arabia to help get both the Israelis and Palestinians to say yes to any initiative. Kushner builds on his close relationship with the Saudi crown prince Mohamed Bin Salman as a conduit for a much bigger Saudi role in the peace process than ever before. Kushner's meeting with MBS in Riyadh two weeks ago focused mainly on this issue. President Abbas was in Riyadh earlier this week to talk about the peace process with the Saudi leadership.

I guess if MBS proclaims himself KING in two days time - Jared will push him to put pressure on Abu Mazen ( he was summoned to Riyadh last Monday to have a talk with Salman père et fils)


To be a fly on the wall for all of Trump's meetings on his current trip through Asia... To use a poker analogy: I can just imagine all of the bluster, bluffing, and raising that is happening before someone finally calls on this hand of the great game.

Personally, I view this through the lens of economics and currency war so I'm partial to the perspective of this being about capturing and blocking access to resources.


Account Deleted

Jar 'ed + Ivanka's tears = anything is possible.

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