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31 October 2017

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Babak Makkinejad

I think that things would get really ugly very quickly when the Jihadists penetrate and infest India. I think that could only be a matter of time.

J

The Russian Backfires have been dropping their ordinance in Syria, shaking the ISIS tree. LOL I love it when a plan comes togeather, and the Russians have their shit tight on Syria. Now IMO if we could only get the JCS and CENTCOM to pull their heads out of their asses and really cooperate with the Russians instead of trying to play salad dressing, we'd be a lot better off.

FourthAndLong

At least as disturbing is the incompetence exhibited by the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq under Obama. How one could not foresee Iran gaining influence? Beyond me. Or the emergence of disenfranchised Sunnis, bitterly enraged? It's so egregious it's understandable that people see conspiracy everywhere. It must have been foreseen that withdrawal would result in the need for more troops and deeper involvement. And presto, like magic, the US became plausibly involved within Syria. How might that have transpired otherwise?

Nuff Sed

VV said: The bottom line is will R+6 open the landline between Lebanon and Iran.

Your insights are always welcome, VV. I would say that Russia will go "all in" in supporting Iran in her establishing this crescent, whose success or failure has existential significance for Iran, as it does for Israel. Knowing this, the latter has no choice but to join the fray. Hence, the "surprise" that the Wahhabi was talking about, which b referred to.

The thing is that the stakes are too high for both sides.

The question is whether Iran and Russia will be able to pry Turkey and Qatar away from the NATO pack. If this happens, then Egypt will follow, and Iran will have succeeded in saving Sonni Islam from its ugly takfiri lower self.

Putin is here in Tehran meeting with Ayatollah Khamenei and Rowhani as I write this. Aliev, the Azerbaijani president, is also here, following Erdogan's visit last week.

The Twisted Genius

The final battle for al Bukamal and al Qaim is close at hand. SAA, Hizbollah and allied militias are pushing down the pipeline road from T2 and are now about 50 km from al Bukamal. Iraqi forces, primarily the PMU, have advanced up the Euphrates and now stand just outside al Qaim. Both forces have established a "joint operations room" to coordinate their joint offensive against al Bukamal and al Qaim. Additionally, the Tiger Force is still moving down the west bank of the Euphrates towards al Bukamal. Will the jihadis be forced to retreat east of the Euphrates or will they elect to DIP?

turcopolier

TTG

IMO we shoul encourage the DIP option. Perhaps we could drop inspirational texts to them. Ah, I forgot that we don't know enough about Islam to be able to do that. pl

turcopolier

VV and Nuff sed

Once again, why Lebanon. If you do that Lebanon will disintegrate again in civil war. pl

Will2.71828

Apparently the battle for Faysh Khabour will be bloody:
"Iraq Day‏
@iraq_day
Following Following @iraq_day
More
Update: Fayh Khabour

Hundreds of Rojava #Peshmerga (Syrian Kurds) came across via Samelka crossing into Iraq, KDP brought in reinforcements
8:17 AM - 1 Nov 2017"

kooshy

What is the best way to prevent future terrorist attacks on western cities?
1- More sanctions on Iran
2- Include all Muslim countries except Saudis to travel list
3- Blame it all on their hate for our way of life
4- stop drone bombing their weeding funeral
And villages.
5-Increase CIA support and arms for moderately extremist Sunni terrorist we like to topple the Muslims we don’t like.
6- Don’t mention the attackers are extremist Sunni Muslims.
7- Don’t stop or mention or our support for Israel and dictatorial regimes in their countries as a cause of their hate.
Everybody can and should add to this list.

ex-PFC Chuck
"SDF area is a landlocked area surrounded Iran-friendly forces and Turkey. It's similar to the Iraqi Kurdish region."
Writing today at Counterpunch (and perhaps co-posted at other sites) Patrick Cockburn asserts that Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi plans to capitalize on his rising prestige after the successes at Mosul and Kirkuk to reassert federal control over "Iraqi Kurdistan." We'll see how that works out. https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/11/01/iraq-to-end-decades-old-policy-of-semi-independent-rule-in-kurdistan/
The Twisted Genius

pl,

That's a damned good idea. Why can't the 4th Military Information Support Group (what we call the 4th POG now) start planting black propaganda exhorting the jihadis to do just that (DIP). Perhaps you're right. If we can't even say PSYOPS any more, maybe we don't know enough about Islam. We certainly don't know our ass from a hole in the ground concerning the use of social media to shape human opinion and behavior.

Babak Makkinejad

"The question is whether Iran and Russia will be able to pry Turkey and Qatar away from the NATO pack."

The answer is no.

Iran and later Russia were forced on their autarkic path by the inflexibility of the political leaders of those Olympians called the "Western Fortress".

Turkey has been losing wars to Russia for centuries and has been on the receiving side of aide first from the British Empire and now the United States. Habits of centuries are difficult to break.

And what does Qatar have in common with Iran or Russia? The orientation is still Western - English, specifically.

ISL

Babak,

Yes, most certainly, after all, the masters of the universe walk not among us - their bullet proofed transportation, private jets and yachts, and private security armies protect them from the dangers faced by mere mortals.

As long as the US government is the best government money can buy, things will remain as such.

Mahatma Propagandhi

"Ah, I forgot that we don't know enough about Islam to be able to do that."

Amen, Colonel. While reading FourthAndLong's post above (decrying Obama's incompetent withdrawal from Iraq as leading to Iranian influence in the theater), I was thinking the very same thing. Ever since W's PNAC neo-cons decided to take down Saddam Hussein post-9/11, the entire debacle has been underscored by an egregious ignorance of internecine Muslim differences and squabbles. Paul (Jerry) Bremer's disastrous bull-in-the-china-shop, post-invasion tenure as head of the coalition is but one of an embarrassing series of ideology-driven missteps.

Sun-Tzu famously wrote that you should study and know your enemy. Perhaps Bush's generals were aware of that dictum, but their civilian masters, red in tooth and claw, were the inmates in charge of the asylum.

JohnB

Elijah Magnier is tweeting that ISIS are putting up strong resistance against the SAA T2 - albu Kamal advance - Using 9m133 kornet anti tank missiles.

An interesting development, would they be stocks captured from SAA?

Nuff Sed

Just posted by the highly knowledgeable Canthama over at Syrian Perspective:

Canthama

Some possible breakthroughs on going in Syria, all of the offensives below will produce important results by the weekend:

1) The SAA/TFs are advancing deep in Hamadiyah district in Deir ez Zour, after the past few days advances inside the city, ISIS is now getting pounded ver closely from 3 axis, and defenses are lightly built,that was the case of today’s liberation of Jubaylah district and the southern part of Hamidiyah. Once Hamidiyah is fully liberated, there will be a very small area for ISIS to hide,basically pushed to the shores of the Euphrates.

2) For the past 10 days we have seen the SAA advancing north of Hama toward Idlib and Aleppo Provinces, by now only 2 axis are at motion, one from Ithriyah and another from as Sa’an. Over two dozens of villages, hills and key points were liberated, mostly on the Ithriyah front, against al Qaeda and ISIS.
The two latest villages liberated, Abu Lafeh and Maryjaib Al-Jamlan, help to place the SAA very close,4 kms, to the very important village of al Rahjan, sort of al Qaeda HQ in northern Hama.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=35.395767&lon=37.435226&z=12&m=b&gz=0;374723052;353320722;223159;1449550;89263;480207;3433;0

Al Rahjan is well located in a very important cross road, that will give the possibility for the SAA to flank many villages north and south of it, the from there a domino effect will happen in a very lightly defended area, see 2nd map below, deep into al Qaeda territory, this can be very disruptive for al Qaeda that will be pushed back to Idlib Province and most likely lose all its presence south of Aleppo as well.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=35.408990&lon=37.426214&z=14&m=b

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=35.406961&lon=37.426300&z=11&m=b&gz=0;371296691;352458994;3646087;2463637;3282165;745483;1888275;459702;1613616;44860;480651;0;0;319576;20599;706264;1730346;2592211

3) The SAA together with a massive Hizballah force are about to declare the liberation of the small Backtal border crossing with Iraq and positioning very close to Akash oil and gas field. Once the new defenses are consolidated, the allied forces will be 30+- kms from al Bukamal.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=34.400111&lon=40.857468&z=11&m=b


Read more at https://www.syrianperspective.com/2017/10/dayr-el-zor-about-to-fall-to-the-saa.html#WtvDGrxY5A5uCdcu.99

turcopolier

james

I suppose that Economic Determinism is easier than trying to understand complex motives. pl

Nuff Sed

Colonel:
I guess what is meant is southern Lebanon, i.e. Hezbollahistan and its Christian allies. The March 14th coalition and Zionist allied Christians are increasingly marginalized.

ISL

Kooshy

8 - Set a precedent that if a terrorist group kills large numbers of people in the west, but then afterwards is ready to target an official enemy (the list is long and ever changing - a smorgasbord of infidels to attack!!!), forgiveness will be given (even for 911). Why, even $$$$ will rain down like mana from heaven into your pockets for weapons and child brides for all ! ! ! ! !

IMO, this is one of the worst blowbacks from the US being on-board with Saudi efforts to destabilize Syria.

Richardstevenhack

I agree. The Syria crisis is still up for grabs. With the revelation that the US has 4,000 troops in Syria (along with artillery), it definitely begins to look like my prediction of a "boil the frog" approach to the overthrow of the Aasad government is starting to become true.

Since the whole purpose of the Syrian crisis was to enable Israel to attack Hizballah, and since that plan is in jeopardy now, I expect Israel to find a way to attack Lebanon again - possibly with US help.

Israel and Saudi Arabia may have given Trump his marching orders for the "next next phase" of the Syria crisis.

JJackson

TTG Re. the T2 pumping station. Who is now pushing past it? It was approached long ago and then that front went static, presumably the troops were needed elsewhere. Now it is taken and there is forward movement again but which units and how strong? Is this the primary thrust or is that coming down the Euphrates' west bank?

turcopolier

richardstevenhack

"(along with artillery)" The artillerymen are a lot of these people. combat strength in Syria are some SOF and Rangers, not much of a force so far. pl

eakens

I suspect sanctions are going to be coming down on Lebanon, and SA, etc. are going to cut them off too.

Unfortunately, they should have thought of that before inviting the Iranians into Syria and Iraq.

Richardstevenhack

A Lebanese civil war? Just what the Israelis would like to see...provided they could keep Hizballah from attacking Israel during an Iran war. Another civil war in Lebanon might keep Hizballah too busy to attack Israel.

More and more, I see Israel luring the US in to do the dirty work of trying to destroy Hizballah. The new Congressional sanctions on Hizballah and the recent Saudi threat to Hizballah indicates this.

kooshy

9-immediately change the subject and go back to Putin hacking and see if you can blame him for all terror and evils ever since the Big Bang.

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