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26 October 2017

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JohnB

Nothing is immutable and you're right they could, although the latest US "Trin & Equip" programme for the SDF suggests that wouldn't be as easy as Kirkuk.

I think we are starting to see the Kurdish SDF being promoted as the alternative to the Assad Govt. I believe they have already annexed Raqqa as part of their self styled "New Syria".

The Tillerson statement has been seen in this context. Will this strategy work? I doubt very much but a united sovereign Syria is starting to move further into the distance.

Phil Cattar

The chances of Assad loosing an election in Syria are less than my chances of being the next president of the US.He has the Alawites,Christians and Druze behind him just for starters.If he survives this he will most likely severely punish all those who he thinks were against him..................He will run his country or any part of it that he controls much tighter than he did before the "uprising".Syria's prisions are known to be some of the worst in the world.............Just before the uprising the Assad regime was on the hot seat for their involvement in the killing of the Prime Minister of Lebanon,Rafik Harriri,and 21 other Lebanese notables................Bashar's father,Hafez Assad was suspected of killing Kamal Jumblatt ,Kamal's son Walid,certainly thinks he did.But yet the Druze in Syria stiil support Assad.................Many think that Hafez was also involved in the "disappearance" of Iman Moussa Sadr..........A Shia who was getting too powerful in South Lebanon in the 80s.....Then there is Hama Syria where Hafez massacred 20000 Syrians to stamp out the Moslem Brotherhood..........I realize that nowhere in the Middle East resembles Switzerland.............but the Assads are a rough bunch who will do what they have to keep power.It is a zero/sum game.............I would not be very surprised to find out that Zahreddine died from "friendly fire".

aleksandar

Thomas, Anna
I'm not arguing about what Israel will do, but about what israel can do. Try to figure out your life without electricity,no phone, no computers, no planes,no water, no lights, and so, and so.
Electricity is modern societies Achille's heel.
Good news, a way to win war without killing score of people.
Progress.

Thomas

aleksander,

I see your point and was saying what will happen when the comforts of modern society is gone so will the people be, never to return. It will be tough for King Bibi to rule with no subjects and many of his former ones out for revenge because of their loss of wealth.

Where I would disagree with b is that with their current Civil Leadership wrapped up in the Massada Myth, they would take the flying leap of faith with the belief that the U.S. will come to their rescue. It will be a shock when they are met with stone silence followed by "fight for yourselves".

What Israel can and should do is remove the current leadership, but with that society and its worship of the false Idol of Security there is about a two percent chance it would. Some suicides can't be prevented.

different clue

Anna,

The Rabinists are a desperate, dispirited and demoralized minority. The relatively few of them who remain in the Knesset can bear public witness to what sane decisions would be, but they can do nothing to make the Revisionists and the Revisionised make those sane decisions.

Account Deleted

"Beyond Wisdom and Stupidity" just doesn't have the same ring to it.

charly

If the West wants to be bigger than China then compromises have to be made.


ps. With respect to race i think Iranians are Caucasians aka white. Culture may be different but is closer than China

Account Deleted

Curious as to why you feel Trump "has to" execute on a concrete program of some kind Babak. He certainly may, but indications so far seem to indicate that he is not a strategic program kind of guy - perhaps pathologically the opposite in fact. The most worrying aspect of the Trump phenomenon for me is the fact that the more he fails, the more the Teflon™ defense will galvanize & radicalize his core support. This may indeed be his sole strategy.

I'd respectfully suggest that his threat to totally destroy a nation of 25M souls should make your list of his outstanding international accomplishments in year 1.

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