Sic Semper Tyrannis

The next phase in Syria

(I couldn't crop this - sorry)

This is the situation in NW Syria and the east on 31 October.

1. The situation in Eastern Syria has become relatively stable.  The US government's proxy forces (SDF) have advanced to the east bank of the
   Euphrates and as a result sovereign Syria will be limited to the country west of the river for some unforeseeable period.
2. The SDF and R+6 are engaged along with Iraqi forces in a race along both banks of the river to determine who will control the Albukamel border crossing on the Deir al-Zor to Baghdad highway.  The US coalition apparently wants to keep that highway communication out of SAG hands so as to continue to weaken the government.  The Iraqi government wants the crossing open and in Syria's hands, so this is bound to be a cause of friction between the US and Iraq.
3. The large IS pockets in central Syria have been eliminated with some jihadis being allowed to evacuate into the Albukamel area and others seeking to flee into Idlib Province where they are being given a hostile reception by HTS (Al-Qa'ida).
4. This has freed up a large number of Syrian troops who are being re-deployed either to the Euphrates or to the coming offensive in Idlib Province.
5. The Syrian general command has appointed new commanders to the north overall and to the offensive that will drive into Idlib Province from the south.
6. Action on the axis astride Route 5 from the south has begun.  Secondary attacks should be expected from Aleppo City and from Latakia Province going east.
7. Such action is facilitated by the fact that both HTS and IS are excluded from the terms of the de-escalation agreement in Idlib Province.
8. The situation will become really interesting when R-6 forces reach the outposts now manned by the Turks in northern Idlib Province.  pl

HARPER: A BANKER FROM HSBC GOING TO JAIL

During the late 1980s savings and loan collapse, more than 1,000 bankers went to jail for various kinds of financial fraud.  Famous names like Michael Milken, the Keating Five and Ivan Boesky were tried and convicted of manipulation and theft--and did their time behind bars.  Not so following the 2008 financial crash, a collapse far bigger and more devastating for investors, great and small.  But following the 2008 debacle, under what came to be known as the "Holder Rule," not a single individual banker from the "too big to fail" financial institutions of Wall Street and the City of London suffered personal prosecution.

President Barack Obama, who came into office with the financial backing of Wall Street banks and Connecticut hedge funds, and his Attorney General Eric Holder both made the specious argument that the threat of "collateral damage" to the global financial system was such that all top bankers had to be given a permanent "stay out of jail for free" card.  It came to be known as "too big to jail."

On October 23, 2017, a Federal Grand Jury in Brooklyn, New York ripped up the "Holder Rule" and convicted a top banker from the big London bank HSBC on nine counts of conspiracy and wire fraud.  A second HSBC banker is now awaiting extradition from the UK to stand trial on similar charges.

Mark Johnson was the head of HSBC's global foreign exchange cash trading desk and Stuart Scott was a subordinate of Johnson at the London trading desk.  Both men conspired to rip off Cairn Energy by "front running" a Cairn transaction commissioned to HSBC.  Cairn had $3.5 billion in US dollars from the sale of an India subsidiary and they commissioned HSBC to convert the dollars into UK pound sterling.  Just prior to the sale, Johnson and Scott made major purchases of the British currency with bank funds, thus costing client Cairn $8 million in added costs and making themselves and the bank a $500,000 profit on the transaction.

Compared to other bad acts by HSBC, the "front running" scheme was small potatoes. But it was a serious crime and this time, the Department of Justice had the green light to make the case--not against the bank but against the individuals who carried out the crime.  It helped that there were taped conversations between Johnson and Scott in which they gloated over the fact that they "got away with it."

Johnson faces up to 30 years in US Federal prison for each of the nine counts.

HSBC is notorious for its role as a laundromat for Mexican and Colombian drug cartels and Middle Eastern terrorist groups.  In 2012, the Senate Permanent Investigations Subcommittee (SPIS) published a 300-page report thoroughly documenting HSBC's collusion with the drug cartels and Middle Eastern banks financing Al Qaeda.  That report was referred to the Obama Justice Department, and the DOJ quickly reached a "deferred prosecution" deal with the bank.  Not one HSBC banker faced individual prosecution.  Under the deferred prosecution deal, the bank promised "never to do it again" and in return, they got to pay a fine and walk away scott free.  Even after they broke the terms of the deferred prosecution deal, the bank and Federal prosecutors begged the Judge overseeing the compliance phase of the case to keep the findings under seal.

In a novel civil case in Federal court in Texas, HSBC has been sued by the families of American government officials brutally killed by the Mexican drug cartels, charging that the bank was complicit in the murders under US anti-terrorism laws, because they laundered the money used to pay the assassins.  Evidence presented in Court in that case shows a depth of collusion between the bank and the cartels that is mind blowing. The attorney for the plaintiffs in that case is a former Federal Prosecutor, Richard Elias, who quit the DOJ after he found evidence of massive and willful fraud by Citibank mortgage bankers only to see his higher-ups in Washington cut a deferred prosecution and civil fine deal under the Holder Rule.

Not surprisingly, the US mainstream media (MSM) has barely covered the Johnson case.  Not one major newspaper gave it frontpage coverage.  Bloomberg New's legal team did report on the court ruling--and on the panic is has caused in board rooms and trading desks at the big Wall Street and London banks.

While it is too soon to say that the Johnson conviction opens a new era in which bankers at big TBTF institutions are going to be held accountable for their criminal actions--usually targeted against their own customers--the case is a hopeful sign that the playing field is getting a little more level.

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/media/hsbc-exposed-us-finacial-system-to-money-laundering-drug-terrorist-financing-risks 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-usa-crime/u-s-jury-finds-ex-hsbc-executive-guilty-of-fraud-in-3-5-billion-currency-trade-idUSKBN1CS295 

http://fortune.com/2017/08/22/hsbc-currency-scheme-may-have-involved-11-other-bank-employees/ 

"In war men are nothing. The Man is everything" Bonaparte

 

"Another prominent Syrian Arab Army (SAA) commander has received a promotion this week as the military’s high command looks to finalize roles for next year.

According to a military source, Major General Zaid Saleh has been named the Deputy Director/Vice President of the Syrian Republican Guard, effective immediately.

Major General Saleh was previously the commander of the Republican Guard’s 30th Division that was leading operations in the Aleppo Governorate; he will now oversee operations all over northern Syria.  AMN

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Bonaparte in his Maxims made the statement quoted in the title.   You may not want to believe that but what would the Grande Armee have been without him personally,?  What would the Afrika Korps or later Panzer Armee Afrika have been without Erwin Rommel?  The Army of Northern Virginia without Lee, indeed the IXth Legion Hispana without Caesar?  They would have been good troops but not at the level to which they reached.

The SAA has survived a horrendous war.  In the process New Men were summoned up out of Syria's brown earth. Clausewitz spoke for the ages in Vom Kriege in predicting that this process is inevitable in a army that survives a long, hard war.

Suheil Hassan of the Tiger Forces, and the late Issam Zahreddine  are the best known of the New Men, but there are surely others.

There is been  certain amount of talk here of which petite ordure of  a civilian politician will succeed Bashar Assad when the Russians, Americans, Turks and Iranians combine to force him from office.  What a joke! Bashar will not go willingly.

Look at this Man, Zaid Saleh.  Look at him!  Look at the eyes.  Bashar and his government are restructuring for the coming campaigning season.

This man's assignment is to restore the government's authority in Idlib and in the Turkish occupied areas.  There will be blood and fire in the NW.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-promotions-continue-prominent-commander-given-new-role/

SST has now had 18 million lifetime page views

SST has been in existence for 12 years.  1.5 million a year on average and of course there were fewer visitors in the beginning.  Contributions will be gratefully accepted.  pl

 

HOW I GOT HERE

 

Some months ago, Phil Butler invited me to contribute to a book to tell the stories of some people who are active in countering the anti-Russian line that has become so predominant in the West. Having read it, I find a common thread among most of the contributors. And that is that some excessively one-sided coverage of events – the Sochi Olympics and Ukraine are often mentioned – triggered their scepticism. It couldn't possibly be that one-sided they thought and they started to look elsewhere for information. This swiftly made them realise that almost everything in the Western MSM about Russia (and many other topics) is lies. Once they understood that, there was no way back.

 

I recommend the book https://www.amazon.com/Putins-Praetorians-Confessions-Kremlin-Trolls-ebook/dp/B076SS88CP/

 

I suspect most readers and commenters on this site have been through a similar journey. Anyway, here is mine.

 

I started work for the Canadian Department of National Defence in 1977 in the Directorate of Land Operational Research of the Operational Research and Analysis Establishment. I participated in many training games in real time and research games in very slow time. The scenarios were always the same: we (Canada had a brigade group in West Germany) were defending against an attack by the Soviet/Warsaw Pact side. In those days NATO was a defensive organisation and, as we later found out, so was the other side: each was awaiting the other to attack. Which, come to think of it, is probably why we're all here today.

I enjoyed my six years, often as the only civilian in a sea of uniforms, but I realised that a history PhD stood no change of running the directorate so, when the slot opened, I contrived to switch to the Directorate of Strategic Analysis as the USSR guy. I should say straight off that I have never taken a university course on Russia or the USSR. And, in retrospect, I think that was fortunate because in much of the English-speaking world the field seems to be dominated by Balts, Poles or Ukrainians who hate Russia. So I avoided that "Russians are the enemy, whatever flag they fly" indoctrination: I always thought the Russians were just as much the victims of the ideology as any one else and am amused how the others have airbrushed their Bolsheviks out of their pictures just as determinedly as Stalin removed "unpersons" from his.

That was November 1984 and Chernenko was GenSek and, when he died in March 1985, Gorbachev succeeded. While I didn't think the USSR was all that healthy or successful an enterprise, I did expect it to last a lot longer and when Gorbachev started talking about glasnost and perestroyka I thought back to the 20th Party Congress, the Lieberman reforms, Andropov's reforms and didn't expect much.

In 1987 two things made me think again. I attended a Wilton Park conference (the first of many) attended by Dr Leonid Abalkin. He took the conference over and, with the patient interpretation of someone from the Embassy, talked for hours. The Soviet economy was a failure and couldn't be reformed. That was something different. Then, on the front page of Pravda, appeared a short essay with the title "A New Philosophy of Foreign Policy" by Yevgeniy Primakov. I pricked up my ears: a new philosophy? But surely good old Marxism-Leninism is valid for all times and places. As I read on, I realised that this was also something new: the author was bluntly saying that Soviet foreign policy had been a failure, it was ruining the country and creating enemies. These two were telling us that the USSR just didn't work. As Putin told Stone, "it was not efficient in its roots".

These things convinced me that real change was being attempted. Not just fiddling around at the edges but something that would end the whole Marxist-Leninist construct. As far as I was concerned, it had been the communist system that was our enemy and, if it was thrown off, we should be happy. Sometime around then I was interviewed for a job at NATO and the question was what, with all these changes, was NATO's future. I said it should become an alliance of the civilised countries against whatever dangers were out there: the present members of course, but also the USSR, Japan and so on.

Well, that didn't happen did it? I remember a very knowledgeable boss assuring me that NATO expansion was such a stupid idea that it would never happen. He was wrong too.

"Under CIA Pressure Trump Blocks Full Release Of Kennedy Assassination Docs" - SF

"Congress had ordered in 1992 that all remaining sealed files pertaining to the investigation into Kennedy’s death should be fully opened to the public through the National Archives in 25 years, by Oct. 26, 2017, except for those the president authorized for further withholding.

The US law allows the president to keep material under wraps if it is determined that harm to intelligence operations, national defense, law enforcement or the conduct of foreign relations would outweigh the public’s interest in full disclosure.

More than 2,800 uncensored documents were posted to the National Archives website on October 26 following the order, but approximately 18,000 remaining CIA records are to be released “on a rolling basis,” with “redactions in only the rarest of circumstances,” by the end of the review on April 26, 2018, the White House said in a statement.

CIA Director Mike Pompeo was a lead advocate in arguing to the White House for keeping some materials secret, one senior administration official said. Trump was resistant but “acceded to it with deep insistence that this stuff is going to be reviewed and released in the next six months,” according to the official."   SF

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I used to do a lot of DoJ funded expert witness testimony for the defense in national security  cases.  In the US if you are charged and are indigent in terms of ability to pay lawyers, the government provides a legal team for you that is often from the Federal Public Defenders office in the district where the trial is held.  These lawyers are fully funded and staffed and are every bit as good as the DoJ  US Attorney's people and staff.  They hire expert witnesses as needed.   My function was always the same.   As a court accepted expert on the ME. Islam and intelligence I had the job of studying the exhibits provided under "discovery" and providing the judge and both legal teams reports as to the case against the accused.  I then testified about my reports. 

I found it to be the case that the CIA is so sensitive about its fearsome reputation for operational skill that it would do anything needed to protect that reputation.  That included willingness to compromise (through DoJ) on sentencing if only I would not testify as to their frequent ineptitude.

In the case of the FBI, a desire to be thought of as the nation's guardian angel sometimes made them do bizarre things.  In one case two FBI agents conspired with a DoJ prosecutor to bribe a pair of witnesses with witness fees to falsely testify against an accused.  This was on a success based understanding.  In other words the foresworn witnesses would be paid if the man was convicted.  The US attorney discovered this through financial audits and informed the US Defender. 

With this in mind I find it very easy to believe that what CIA and FBI want suppressed forever in the Kennedy papers is evidence of their own failures in the matter rather than conspiracy evidence.

Why would Pompeio have backed that suppression urging DJT to not release everything?  The CIA knows that nobody is easier to recruit than a Director from outside the intelligence world who is looking to be accepted at Langley.  pl

https://southfront.org/under-cia-pressure-trump-blocks-full-release-of-kennedy-assassination-docs/

Tillerson dosn't have a clue ...

 

"The U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, stated on Thursday that the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end, contrasting his previous comments in March declaring that the Syrian President’s removal was not a priority for the U.S. regime.“The reign of the Assad family is coming to an end,” Tillerson stated after his meeting with the head of the UN Envoy of Syria, Stephan de Mistura, in Geneva."

Tillerson stated he is unsure of how to bring about Assad’s end, but remained confident this would happen.  AMN

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Who briefs this guy?  Is this what he reads in the "silver streak" or "Purple Gonads" stuff brought by courier to Main State?  I don't know what they call it now.  Perhaps AIPAC and WINEP are his sources of information.  Or does this mean the Russians have agreed to remove Bashar?  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/reign-assad-coming-end-us-secretary-state/

The Bonnie and Clyde of US politics - by Publius Tacitus

Appears that Clinton Campaign Colluded with Ukraine and McCain in Bid to Destroy Donald Trump.

When the story of foreign interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election is finally told it will have little to do with Russia and a lot to do with how Democrats, some Republicans and critical parts of the intelligence and law enforcement community colluded in an effort to discredit Donald Trump and undermine his ability to function as President. What puzzles me is why the media is acting surprised with the latest news confirming that Hillary Clinton's campaign financed the infamous Trump Dossier. Thank you Captain Obvious. Who else would have commissioned such an effort once the Republican primary battle was settled?

Reporters from the Washington Post,  while not breaking new ground, provided clear documentary evidence to confirm the suspicion:

Marc Elias, a lawyer representing the Clinton campaign and the DNC, retained Fusion GPS, a Washington, D.C., firm, to conduct the research. Fusion GPS hired dossier author Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer with ties to the FBI and the U.S. intelligence community.

Elias and his law firm, Seattle-based Perkins Coie, retained the firm in April 2016 on behalf of the Clinton campaign and the DNC. Before that agreement, Fusion GPS’ research into Trump was funded by a still unknown Republican client during the GOP primary.

The Clinton campaign and the DNC, through the law firm, continued to fund Fusion GPS’ research through the end of October 2016, days before Election Day.

Fusion GPS gave Steele’s reports and other research documents to Elias, the people familiar with the matter said. It is unclear how or how much of that information was shared with the campaign and DNC, and who in those organizations was aware of the roles of Fusion GPS and Steele.

Let me remind you of the basic facts about the Dossier--It consists of 13 separate reports. The first is dated 20 June 2016. That date is important because it shows that it took a little more than two months for Fusion GPS to generate its first report on Trump's alleged Russian activities. If Fusion GPS already had something in the can then I would expect them to have put something out in early May. Eleven more reports were generated between 26 July and 19 October 2016. That tracks with the letter from Perkins Coie that the engagement by the Clinton Campaign ended at the end of October.

But there is a big problem and unanswered question--The Dossier includes a final report that is dated 13 December 2016. Who paid for this? Was it John McCain?

What? That can't be!!

 

(Steele)

"The Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee helped fund research that resulted in a now-famous dossier containing allegations about President Trump’s connections to Russia and possible coordination between his campaign and the Kremlin, people familiar with the matter said.

Marc E. Elias, a lawyer representing the Clinton campaign and the DNC, retained Fusion GPS, a Washington firm, to conduct the research.

After that, Fusion GPS hired dossier author Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer with ties to the FBI and the U.S. intelligence community, according to those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity."  Washpost

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So, the DNC (Wasserman-Shultz?)  and the Clinton campaign funded the Steele dossier, written by a washed up British spook to denigrate Trump.  Got it?  Will this dastardly deed go unpunished?  We will see.

And then, separately, there is the matter of the uranium ore contract that Hillary approved when Secretary of State, a contract that seems to have been fortunately related in time to Bill Clinton's $500k speaking fee in Russia.

And then, there is Ralph Northam.  Those who will vote in Virgina's gubernatorial election should remember that he is a creature of the McCauliffe/Clinton apparat.  This is true in much the same way that BHO was a creation of the Democratic big money people in Chicago.  

Will this be followed up by Mueller and Sessions?  Who knows.  pl  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/clinton-campaign-dnc-paid-for-research-that-led-to-russia-dossier/2017/10/24/226fabf0-b8e4-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_dossier-630pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.9bfaad59ff09

Open Thread - 24 October 2017

  pl

More on the US policy miasma in the ME

 

"On October 22, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a joint news conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, that it is time for “Iranian militias” that’s fighting ISIS in Iraq to “go home” according to Reuters Agency.

“Iranian militias that are in Iraq, now that the fight against Daesh and ISIS is coming to a close, those militias need to go home. The foreign fighters in Iraq need to go home and allow the Iraqi people to regain control,” Tillerson said.

According to Reuters an US official explained that Tillerson was referring to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Iranian Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

However, the PMU consists of Iraqi forces with some Iranian support and assiastance. Considering this, Tillerson statement is either based on very poor understanding of the situation in Iraq, or it might be meant as propaganda, and nothing more."   SF

https://southfront.org/us-state-secretary-iranian-militias-must-leave-iraq/

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The PMU are overwhelmingly IRAQI Shia Arabs.  They ARE home.  Tillerson looks foolish sitting next to Adel Jubair (aka The Chihuahua) broadcasting to the world the policy desiderata of the Saudi kingdom.   We all know that DJT made his obeisance to the throne of the Wahhabi state.  Tillerson is obviously there as the deputy mukhtar of America.  Does the Shia run government of Iraq welcome such a statement?  I doubt it.  pl

******

"US.-backed fighters captured Syria's largest oil field from the Islamic State group Sunday, marking a major advance against the extremists in an area coveted by pro-government forces.

With IS in retreat, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government have been in a race to secure parts of the oil-rich Deir el-Zour province along the border with Iraq."  Chicago Tribune

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-syria-oil-field-islamic-state-20171022-story.html

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 Well, pilgrims, IMO the US/SDF has done this to cripple Syrian reconstruction.  The income from this field will be needed for the re-building of places like Raqqa and Aleppo.  What do the neocons and their general officer allies think they are going to do with their possession of this Syrian national property?   Are they going to try to negotiate Kurdish autonomy amounting to independence?  pl

*****

"Turkish troops first deployed in Idlib last Thursday with the purported aim of enforcing the so-called de-escalation zone that Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to in the Kazakh capital of Astana last month. In a statement last week, Turkey’s prime minister said that the operation also aimed to reduce refugee flows into Turkey, prevent conflicts between civilians and militants in Idlib, and establish control points for future deployment in the area.

A wide-scale military campaign against HTS, however, was not listed among the objectives, and Turkey has not demonstrated any hostility toward the group. The two are believed to have coordinated operations in Idlib and HTS has escorted Turkish troops into the province at least four times in the past month." newsdeeply.com

https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/10/23/hostility-toward-militants-grows-in-idlib-as-turkey-deploys-troops

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IMO the new Sublime Porte speaks with Forked Tongue.  How's that for a mixed metaphor?  Sultan Tayyip and his band of neo-Ottomans harbor irredentist dreams with regard to the more or less united lands of the empire as it once was.  .  The Russians have fed them a slice of Syria both in Idlib Province and northeast of  Aleppo City.  It is reported that the Turkish military is occupying eight garrison positions in Idlib including two air bases.  Good luck on getting them to withdraw to Turkey once they are well installed.  pl

 

Virginia's next governor ...

One of these two men will be the next governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.  The election is in November.  Northam and I graduated from the same small  state college in western Virginia.  Comments about the candidates? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Northam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Gillespie

US policy in Islamdom is a chaos. Part 1

The accompanying map does not include India as a  country deeply affected by Islam and Islamicate civilization.  IMO that is a defect.  The terms "Islam," Islamdom," and "Islamicate Civilization." were clarified by the great historian of Islam, Marshell Hodgson.

This is my editorial opinion.

 ------------

 Syria.  The US persists in its nonsensical policy of regime change in Syria.  McGurk, the State Department lead in Syrian affairs is evidently one of the leaders of this foolishness.  The Syrian Government's forces have regained control of most of the country with the help of their Russian, Iranian, Hizbullah, Palestinian and Christian militia allies.   In spite of this the US MSM studiously ignores the efforts of the SAA and allies (R+6).  They are simply never mentioned.  They have been edited out of the US narrative.  Whether DJT has a side agreement with Putin over Syria seems not to affect the MSM narrative at all.  McGurk's statement that the Syrian government would not be allowed into Raqqa City is an announcement of an extra-legal interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign UN member state.  Do we intend to hold Raqqa forever and to what purpose?

Iraq.  In Iraq we have for the moment abandoned the interests of the KRG in its evident desire for independence from Baghdad.  We have done this in spite of outrage expressed by our foreign policy mentors in Israel.  The Israelis are, of course, the chief sponsors of Kurdish statehood.   The Israelis follow a consistent pattern of policy of disrupting surrounding states with a view to reducing them to pastoral rug bazaars.  Our loyalty to the Baghdad government is amusing because it is virtually inevitable that the Shia run government of Iraq will eventually align itself with Iran and ask the US to withdraw from the country.

Iran.  DJT's decision to stop certifying Iranian compliance with JCPOA is merely a reflection of Zionist influence over the president and the hyper-belligerent attitudes of Mattis, and McMaster.  They are revealed as more neocon than the organizational neocons and largely in league with them.  US abandonment of JCPOA will lead to direct policy conflicts with major European allies and the loss of business for American companies like Boeing.   In the end this direction may lead to a US-Iran War as a culmination of Israeli machinations in Washington.

Saudi Arabia.  Trump prostrated himself and his country before the Saudis and the leaders of the Islamic World.  The Saudis expect that this was more than a symbolic and empty gesture.  Saudi Arabia is a weak state in actual capabilities in the world  It is a state that the US will not need much longer as a source of petroleum.  The feebleness of the Saudi government is demonstrated by the ineffectual nature of its war in Yemen,  This genocide is being aided and abetted by the US government as part of its cartoon-like conception of basic social and political structures in Islamdom.  The Saudi government grows ever weaker as   a result of this war and decline in its monetized assets because of a growing surplus of petroleum in the world.  The Saudi princelings are not worth the effort being put into keeping them happy.

 Qatar.  US military operations in the ME are centered around the command and control facility at Al-Obeid in Qatar as well as the air base itself.  The air base is useful but is only one of many used by the US in the ME.  By siding with the Saudis DJT has de-stabilized the US relationsip with Qatar and is driving the Qataris in the direction of an pro-Iranian stance.  Would the US fight to keep al-Obeid?  The Saudis won't do it for the US.

Afghanistan.  DJT made a bad decision in deciding to persist in fighting to establish a coherent government in the country.  The aggressive and successful efforts of the taliban in the last week demonstrate the weakness of a government that has a negligible GDP and no ability to fund its own armed forces.  The defeat of that government is a certainty  when the US eventually withdraws it forces.  The various Afghan peoples are inherently unsuitable material for the formation of a coherent state.  DJT's flawed decision was based on the advice of his national security team.  McMaster, Mattis and Dunford are too powerful.  The US government is inherently a civilian government.  There are too many military men at the top just now.

Try to think past the MIC cult belief and the absurd conception of a US Deep State.

To be continued ... 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Hodgson

The Tyranny of Popularity - by Richard Sale

“Things that are easy to swallow are hardly ever nutritious.”

Nothing of worth ever begins as something popular. Something of outstanding worth usually has to make its way gradually, moving on timid steps, out into a hostile, indifferent world.  It doesn’t bolt into the spotlight like an extravagant starburst. It moves on hesitant steps, always extremely vigilant, because on all sides looms The Popular which can overwhelm it or lead it astray. A work of extraordinary merit usually it takes a great deal of time to gain its footing, and it requires a lot of exposure, analysis and comparison before a book or a painting or a play or a beautiful building are recognized as being “the real thing.”

That recognition can be as slow as a glacier’s progress.  When the Italian Dante finished his The Divine Comedy,” the critical opinion of the day damned it as “Gothic obscurantism.” It isn’t. It is measured, stately and beautiful. Today, it is extolled as one of the great narrative poems in Western Civilization. It took 150 years for the greatness of Shakespeare to emerge, thanks to the Romantics.  Even The Iliad, Homer’s masterpiece, required a long span of time before its imperishable beauty was praised. The Greeks of Homer’s time were so corrupt, they even denied that the Trojan War took place. Homer’s work was dismissed as mere fraudulence.

Great art is like a message in a bottle.  The heaving sea is populated with acres of bottles bobbing on the swells. A curious onlooker can idly fish out a bottle and take out the message. If the message has no interest for him, he lets it fall into the surf. If it appears to have brief interest, he may perhaps hand it to his neighbor who might gaze at it for a minute, then discard it. This is where endowments of intelligence and gifts of emotional depth and perceptiveness begin to play a part. Say we have a mind that consistently spends its time reading, observing, reflecting, and meditating. Over time, he or she is going to develop skills based on those activities. He or she will lead two lives, the personal and the intellectual. The skills from the latter depend on the growth of insight, vivid interests and focused observation.

So what happens when a richly endowed mind comes across the message? It will not read the message idly, but with genuine curiosity.  If it is a trifle, he throws it away, but if it isn’t, he will consider it, examine it,  create a scale of importance, rate it, and if he has friends of similar temperament and gifts, will pass it on to them.  In other words, the reaction of his friends will vary according to their brains and emotional depth, but it isn’t likely that they would want to discard it without a hearing.  Soon some preliminary agreement will be forged about the worth of the message.  Analytic comparisons take place. That is how fame is established and spread. Fame depends on convincing the skeptical.

So what establishes value?  The passage of time. Time weeds out nuisances and but keeps the worthy creations and onlookers and readers will begin to rank them in the scale of importance and excellence.  There is always a struggle taking place in a civilization between the cheap and glamorous and the quiet and truthful. The more our nature is limited, the more our brains and feelings are shallow, the more likely they will be to praise what is worthless and to exalt what is false and dubious.  Integrity grows in our character only by overcoming the inferior elements of or minds and supplanting them with something more alert and astute.  If you have a nature that risks ridicule because it halts to think before it pronounces, you have a nature that is honest.  It may be mistaken at times, and may come to repudiate its earlier judgments, but if it has integrity, it will demand repeated efforts to correct its earlier misconceptions.

The best in us wants to admire the admirable, not the shoddy and flimsy imitations of it. We do not want to substitute something that has an enduring value, something that acts to stimulate accomplishments for something flashy and worthless, and yet people do that all the time. They forget that the popular is usually the radically unsound because the popular caters to our mental or spiritual limitations. Popularity is a mirage that masks merit. The first idea to delight the mind may not be a sound or noble one. It may beguile, mislead, stupefy, and it may lead he mind completely astray. The goal of our thought should be clearer or more accurate and more deeply felt perceptions of our own common life. To obtain greater clarity of sight, we have to shun things that pretend to be insightful or durable when it fact, they betray and blind us.

Masterpieces of art enter the world like messages in a bottle. There are hordes of bottles bobbing about in the broad sea, and in each bottle, is a message that seems like all the others, until a reader or spectator, or a discerning critic takes the message out and is exalted by it.  Of course, the spread of its fame can be tantalizing slow, as you can see from the examples above.  Some natures, receptive, richly endowed with feeling and superior brain power will come across them, and they will work tirelessly to save them from oblivion. But, as I said, that takes time.

In a democracy, whose political ideology declares that all men and women are created equal is a worthy political goal. But if you move beyond politics, we encounter the array of masterpieces in Western Civilization, and to appreciate them requires exceptional gifts of temperament and mind. What is a masterpiece? A masterpiece is a work of an artist whose ambition was to construct something so beautiful, so humanly dramatic and poignant that it will endure beyond the reach of Time. That is the aim of genuine artists whether their art is sculpture, painting or writing architecture or composing musical masterpieces.

 

A Dog's Life

   

Download 2017-01-16-VIDEO-00002106111

America, Desperately Seeking An Enemy by Publius Tacitus

Life used to be simple. At least that is the nostalgic nonsense that fills the aging brain pans of those of us over the age of 55. Back in the Good Old days we had the clear enemy of international communism to battle. We used that bullshit bugaboo to justify wars in Vietnam, Cambodia, Angola, Central America, South America and Afghanistan. As long as we had the implacable foe of international communism poised to take over the world, intent on taking away our choices of ice cream and certain to demand that we worship the memory of Vladimir Lenin, we could justify spending hundreds of billions of dollars on building a massive military and intelligence bureaucracy and equipping them with expensive machines of death and communication. 

When the Soviet Union crumbled under the weight of its slavish devotion to Marxian utopian precepts we thought we witnessed the dawn of a new era. And we did. The only problem--we could not sustain our economy without coming up with a new enemy that would justify the continued spending of hundreds of billions of dollars on technologically sophisticated and grotesquely expense crap that, in the event of a real conventional war, would be impossible to replace in a timely manner and would bankrupt our nation.

We, the United States, drifted from 1992 until 11 September 2001 trying to identify the new enemy. During that 8 year hiatus U.S. defense spending ticked down, both as an absolute number and as a percentage of GDP. There were some isolated international terrorist attacks but nothing so extraordinary to rally the country. Instead, there were weak efforts to build worry about China and to promote missile defense as the latest, greatest technology needed to keep America safe.

The coordinated attacks on 9-11 in 2001 changed all of that and the spending binge was on. Very few challenged the conventional wisdom that more military spending would be an effective remedy for battling a motley collection of radical Islamists who did not have armor, artillery, armies, navies, ballistic missiles nor an air force. That uncomfortable fact did not slow us for a minute in throwing new billions at the military, the defense bureaucracy and the intelligence agencies.

And what did that spending spree earn us? Nothing. Instead of quelling terrorism, terrorism spread. Inspired in large measure by George W. Bush's ill-considered and feckless invasion of Iraq. We disarmed the minority Sunni Baathists, imprisoned and shamed thousands and then were surprised to learn that pissed off people have a tendency to fight back.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 19 OCTOBER 2017

 

SAUDI ARABIA. The visit of Salman bin Abdulaziz was pretty significant I think. The deal on the petrodollar was that Riyadh would insist on USD for payment in return for protection. Because Washington's wars in the MENA have only made Iran stronger, Riyadh cannot think the deal is working out and it may be looking for a new sponsor: it happened before when Abdulaziz switched from London to Washington. My thoughts here. I believe that the sale of S-400 air defence systems could be a geopolitical gamechanger. Another of Moscow's strengths is that it talks to everybody: and so it has offered to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran. Because Washington takes sides, it is useless should Riyadh want to negotiate its way out of messes with its neighbours. "The success of the Euro-Asian triptych is based on the essential principle of transforming enemies into neutral players, neutral players into allies, and further improving relations with allied nations." Slowly, patiently, bit by bit the long game is played.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The world has entered an era of rapid change. Things that were only recently referred to as fantastic or unattainable have become a reality and have become part of our daily lives." I don't think Putin's referring to the latest computer game, do you? History didn't end, after all.

RUSSIA INC. I expand on something I wrote some time ago. Russia is a "full-service" economy. One of four on the planet. It and China are going up; the USA and the EU are going down.

CW. It was announced that the last of Russia's chemical weapons inherited from the USSR have been destroyed. The USA, not completed its own program, is now aiming for 2023. Neither country hit the first deadline of 2007, nor the second of 2012. The NYT does its best to blame Russia for finishing early.

PUTINVILLE. Moscow has been named the fourth safest megacity for women and St Petersburg the best tourist destination in Europe. I don't put a lot of stock in these ratings but they are useful counters to the Russia as hellhole nonsense that clogs the Western MSM.

WESTERN VALUES™. This should be good for a laugh: Petr Pavlenskiy has been arrested for setting a fire at the Bank of France. Paris granted him asylum after he was fined for setting a fire at the FSB headquarters in Moscow. Does "protest art" in Russia become arson in France?

GETTING SCARED. Russia used to be feeble and falling apart and the danger was that some crazy general would get hold of "loose nukes" and do something bad. Now the Russia-as-enemy campaign is starting to frighten the people who created it. Some of the alarm is feigned as part of the campaign for more money but I think they're really starting to understand that they have woken a sleeping giant and filled him with resolve (as Admiral Yamamoto is said to have said). And they fear that the US military, after a couple of decades of fighting people who can only fight back with car bombs and suicide belts, isn't ready for Prime Time. Some US military connected outfit has put out a how to fight Russia manual (rather amusingly based on the assumption that Kiev forces were fighting the Russian Armed Forces in Donbass – won't they be surprised if they were to meet the real thing!). Meanwhile the Heritage Foundation laments that "Our military has undoubtedly grown weaker". This shouldn't be unexpected, Washington assumed too much and pushed too much. But, still, nothing much has been learned: Kiev wasn't fighting the Russian Armed Forces and Heritage's idea that Congress should "pass a budget that will truly provide for the common defense" is laughable. The problem isn't money. But here we are: another step towards the new new world order.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Latest top hits from the three principal fake news outlets: "Catalonia held a referendum. Russia won" from the WaPo; Pokemon from CNN; cute puppies from the NYT. Meanwhile Senator Burr admits that, after months of hearings, "I’m not going to even discuss any initial findings because we haven’t any” and the real Russian scandal emerges from the shadows. (But, Dear Readers, before the usual drivel about corrupt and corrupting Russians starts up, if your government is for sale, can you blame people for buying it?)

UKRAINE. Another coup in the making? Demonstrations kicked off by a torchlight parade. Demands (at the moment) are a new election law for parliamentarians, an anti-corruption court, ending parliamentary immunity. Signed by Tymoshenko and Saakashvili among many others including some of the nazi battalions. Perhaps not coincidentally, an investigation into fraud committed by President Poroshenko has been opened. Did the coal from Pennsylvania actually come from Russia? Nuclear fears. Another huge ammunition dump fire. The collapse continues.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Lava Tubes on Luna - Why build a lunar space station?

 

" ... a graduate student in Purdue's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, led the study that examined whether empty lava tubes more than 1 kilometer wide could remain structurally stable on the moon.

The Purdue team found that if lunar lava tubes existed with a strong arched shape like those on Earth, they would be stable at sizes up to 5,000 meters, or several miles wide, on the moon.

"This wouldn't be possible on Earth, but gravity is much lower on the moon and lunar rock doesn't have to withstand the same weathering and erosion,” Blair reported. "In theory, huge lava tubes — big enough to easily house a city — could be structurally sound on the moon."  Space.com

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Cosmic radiation is heavy on the surface of the moon.  Without a lot of shielding it will fry your innards.  This Purdue University study tells us that large, long, voids exist below the surface of Luna.  These were evidently created by lava flows long ago.  The study also claims that in the low gravity field of the moon, these tubes would be sufficiently stable to house a large lunar base for mining of rare earths and other activities.

This brings to mind the lunar colony in Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress."  In that novel, the lunar folk were miners whose mineral production was delivered to earth by being fired from rail guns at an impact area in the Pacific ocean from which they were retrieved by ships

For me the possibility of such a colony and base raises the issue of why the US and Russia are intent on building a lunar orbit space station.  Why could not anything that would be done in lunar orbit not be done at a lunar cave base?  pl 

https://www.space.com/28894-moon-lava-tubes-underground-cities.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moon_Is_a_Harsh_Mistress

Major General Issam Zahreddine killed in Deir Ezzor - TTG

“BEIRUT, LEBANON (1:10 P.M.) – The prominent Syrian Arab Army (SAA) officer, Major General Issam Zahreddine, was killed today in Deir Ezzor after his convoy struck a land mine planted by the Islamic State (ISIS). According to a military source, General Zahreddine was conducting a special operation at Saqr Island in Deir Ezzor, when his vehicle struck the land mine.

General Zahreddine was the commander of the elite 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard that heroically fought off the Islamic State (ISIS) for several years, while under siege and under supplied.The General was born in rural Sweida village of Tarba and was 56 years old at the time of his death."

"The body of the late Major General Zahreddine has arrived in Damascus after being flown from the Deir Ezzor  as Governorate in eastern Syria. While full details about his funeral have not been released, it is believed that his body will be transported to his ancestral village of Tarba in the Al-Sweida Governorate.”  (Al Masdar News)

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I have to admit that a tear came to my eye as I put this together. I developed a professional affection for that big bull of a Druze as I read about his exploits over the last few years. Rather than attempt a fitting eulogy, I chose to leave you with the words of Issam Zahreddine’s favorite saying of Imam Ali. It is said that Issam followed these words as his motto.

May his deep laughter be heard throughout all Syria and beyond as his beloved land is fully liberated and his vile enemies are crushed.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-prominent-syrian-general-issam-zahreddine-killed-deir-ezzor/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Issam_Zahreddine

Kurdistan - yet another long term British and US policy triumph

 

" ... the Iraqi military announced that elite units had been "re-deployed" at the K1 base, about 5km (3 miles) north-west of the city of Kirkuk, and that other troops had taken control of the nearby Leylan area, the Baba Gurgur oilfield, and the headquarters of the North Oil Company.

The military also said troops had taken control of a military airport, police station, power plant and several industrial areas, as well as key bridges, roads, junctions.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council accused Baghdad of launching an "unprovoked attack" and said the Peshmerga would "continue to defend Kurdistan, its peoples and interests".

Peshmerga had destroyed five US-made Humvees used by the Popular Mobilisation, a paramilitary force dominated by Iran-backed Shia militias, it added."  BBC

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Iraq was created as a by-product of the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War One (1914-1918).  The present territory of Iraq had been ruled by the Ottoman Turks for several hundred years.  At Versailles the British were given what is now Iraq as a "mandatory territory" with the intention that the area be made independent at some point in the future.  Britain decided to cobble together something called the "Kingdom of Iraq" in this mandatory area.  There was no Iraqi People when this state was created.  There was no group that thought of itself as Iraqi.  There were a number of distinct populations that had little in common;  Arab Sunni Muslims, Arab Shia Muslims,  Kurdish Sunni Muslims, Kurdish Shia Muslims, Kurdish Yaziidis, Turcomans, Assyrian Christians, Chaldean Christians and Jews.  None of these groups particularly liked each other.  Nor did they like the Hashemite prince that the British installed as their king.

Soon after Iraqi independence was granted in 1925 revolts against the central government's authority began.  Kurdish revolts, Arab Revolts, etc.  Kurdish and Arab revolts had actually begun before 1925 in the period of direct British rule.  The British had actually exiled the Barzani of the day to India.  The Kurds of NE Iraq have been more or less in some form of revolt since 1925.  There have been periods when either the Talabani or Barzani Kurds have formed temporary alliances with the Baghdad government usually in an effort to screw the other major Kurdish faction but in general the pattern of resistance to Arab rule has been persistent.

The history of the State of Iraq from 1925 until the destruction of the state by the US in 2003 was characterized by a continual effort by the various Baghdad government to create an Iraqi national identity that subsumed the various groups that had happened to be in what became Iraq's sovereign territory.  IMO the emergence of Iraqi Man was still a work in progress when US invasion halted the process.

A new Iraqi state emerged under US occupation and covert Iranian tutelage.  This state is dominated by Shia Arabs.  IMO if a choice must be made in the future between the US as a sponsor or Iran the Shia government will turn away from the US and face east.  The Borgists believe that the US should have refused to withdraw its forces from Iraq and that the US will be able to refuse a future Iraqi demand for US withdrawal.  It is a big mistake to think the US could do that.  A refusal would inevitably lead to another country wide guerrila rebellion against the US.

In the present circumstance the US has encouraged both the KRG and the Baghdad government to think that it is our one true love.  Since these two historic actors have mutually exclusive and deeply held goals and desires, that  was a very foolish thing for the US to do. 

Will there be a secessionist war?  Probably there will be such a war.  The oil in the north of Iraq certainly exacerbates the crisis since the new Kurdish state would need the income to survive. 

As Churchill said. "just one damned thing after another."  pl

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41631697

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan

The NY Times is wrong again. I was spat upon.

 

"The reporter was asking about accounts that soldiers returning from Vietnam had been spat on by antiwar activists. I had told her the stories were not true. I told her that, on the contrary, opponents of the war had actually tried to recruit returning veterans. I told her about a 1971 Harris Poll survey that found that 99 percent of veterans said their reception from friends and family had been friendly, and 94 percent said their reception from age-group peers, the population most likely to have included the spitters, was friendly.

A follow-up poll, conducted in 1979 for the Veterans Administration (now the Department of Veterans Affairs), reported that former antiwar activists had warmer feelings toward Vietnam veterans than toward congressional leaders or even their erstwhile fellow travelers in the movement."   NY Times opinion piece

----------------

Someone wrote to tell me that the NY times had published this piece.  The author attempts to make the case that the pro-communist anti-war movement was warmly welcoming to soldiers coming back from the war in VN and that the stories of anti-war people spitting on soldiers and otherwise treating soldiers poorly are  "urban myths."

From my point of view this revised narrative of that period has a basic flaw.  I WAS SPAT UPON in March, 1968 while transiting San Francisco International Airport en route to Travis AFB to board the trans-Pacific airlift en route to Vietnam.  I was in uniform and waiting for the bus when a woman got out of her car and walked across the parking lot.  She chose to spit on my chest rather than on a sergeant standing next to me so perhaps she had a thing for officers.  I asked if the people at her house had a roster to schedule spitting on soldiers.  She said they did.  Perhaps they sent only women to do this.

I wrote to the NY Times yesterday to tell this story in comment on their article.  They did not publish my comment.  There are 217 comments on the article.

IMO the left is engaged in editing the narrative of that time so as to absolve itself of the ugliness of its own actions.  pl  

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/opinion/myth-spitting-vietnam-protester.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=7&pgtype=sectionfront

HARPER: TRUMP CALLED NETANYAHU OBSTACLE TO PEACE

A friend recently observed about President Donald Trump: "Ignore what he says, but watch what he does."  In general, this is a useful guide to the rollercoaster ride that is the Trump Presidency.  But on some occasions, it is useful to note what he says--especially when he is speaking off the cuff in discussions with world leaders.

In September, when he was in New York City to address the United Nations General Assembly, President Trump told UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was "the bigger problem" in making progress towards an Israel-Palestine peace deal.  The account of the discussion was provided by a Western diplomat and was reported in both the Israeli daily Haaretz and in The Hill, which circulates widely in the U.S. Congress.

A White House official responded to the Haaretz account but never denied that the President made those comments about Netanyahu:  "This was a short but productive meeting that primarily focused on U.N. reforms and the great job Ambassador Haley has been doing.  After discussing the United States' defense of Israel at the U.N., the participants quickly addressed the ongoing peace conversations... We are focusing on our productive conversations and not on the noise created by spoilers."

Given the President's bellicose UNGA speech and his more recent withdrawal of the United States from UNESCO over its alleged anti-Israel biases, the comments to Guterres were clearly not the stuff from which one can divine any kind of breakthrough on the Israel-Palestine impasse.  But it does suggest that, on a certain level, the President knows the score and that any breakthrough on a settlement will have to come either from a big shift from Netanyahu or his replacement as prime minister.

In a recent episode of Fox TV's interview show Objectified, the host traveled to Israel to interview Netanyahu.  While the Israeli PM said nothing of substance and it was more of a personality profile than a geopolitical dialogue, I was struck by Netanyahu's arrogance and narcissism--even as he was trying to come across as an average Joe.

Sooner or later, I see a blowup coming between Trump and Netanyahu, and the U.S. President's brief moment of candor with the UN Secretary General should be lodged in the back of your mind, as it is in mine. 

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5602129731001/?playlist_id=5574840785001#sp=show-clips

Decision time in Deir Ezzor - TTG

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:40 P.M.) – Three years ago, the Syrian Arab Army was withdrawing from much of eastern Syria, with little hope to hold onto the provincial capital of Deir Ezzor. However, that would all change in late September 2015 when the Russian Air Force began its aerial campaign against the terrorist groups occupying large parts of Syria.

With today’s liberation of the Islamic States (ISIS) de facto capital, Al-Mayadeen, the Syrian Arab Army is in prime position to liberate the Deir Ezzor Governorate’s largest oil fields. The Al-‘Umar Oil Fields have been one of the Islamic State’s most important revenue streams; its liberation is now one of the Syrian military’s top priorities in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.

In the coming days, the Syrian Arab Army will clear the Islamic State’s last pockets in the provincial capital and then shift their focus to the Al-‘Umar Oil Fields, where they hope to reach this site before the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)."  (Al Masdar News)

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I don’t know if Leith Fadel knows the R+6 will cross the Euphrates  and drive the ten to fifteen kilometers due east to occupy the Omar oil fields or if he’s just making an educated guess. If sufficient mobile forces can be pushed across the river quickly, this would be a wise move. The real prize is still Al Bukamal, but a Tiger Force presence in the Omar fields would pretty much scotch CJTF-OIR plans to push the YPG/SDF to Al Bukamal ahead of the R+6. Then the R+6 could take the rest of the Euphrates valley and Al Bukamal at their leisure.

I believe it is well within Tiger Force capabilities to conduct an airmobile insertion into the Omar fields, force a river crossing and advance to a link up with the airmobile force. All depends on the disposition and strength of IS defenses and how fast the R+6 could put such a complicated operation into action. 

To the north, in Deir Ezzor itself, what’s left of the IS jihadis in the city are now cut off from reinforcement, resupply and any hope of a retreat. The R+6 forces on the east side of the Euphrates, spearheaded by elements of the 5th Legion, drove north and cut off the last IS lines of communication into the city. 

To the south, Iraqi PMU and Army units are massing just east of Rawa and are preparing to launch an operation to liberate al-Qa’im. The distance from Rawa to al-Qa’im is roughly the same as from Al Mayadin to Al Bukamal, about 80 kilometers. Not only would this Iraqi offensive pull IS forces away from the R+6 drive to Al Bukamal, but the success of both these drives would finally open up the main Bagdad-Damascus highway. I don't think the CJTF-OIR will be sending anybody any congratulations cards. Just imagine what Bibi will do. Perhaps he will scream in rage and drive his right foot so far into the ground that he creates a chasm and falls into it, never to be seen again. I can hardly wait. 

Far from Deir Ezzor, a Turkish Army column entered Syria to take on some variety of jihadi in Idlib. The government in Damascus issued a statement calling for the removal of these Turkish troops. At the same time, a captured Syrian pilot was finally released by the Turks. I get the feeling this has all been arranged by Moscow and the Syrian protest is largely theatrical. In the meantime, jihadis are still killing jihadis in Idlib. Good.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-eyes-deir-ezzors-largest-oil-fields-isis-retreats-albukamal/

Donald Trump KowTows to Israel on Iran Part II by Publius Tacitus

While the Trumper gave a good teleprompter speech today on the topic of Iran and nukes, he demonstrated great ignorance on the reality that is Iran. He clearly is reflecting the Israeli right wing view on the matter, one that is enthusiastically embraced in the United States by the folks we now refer to as Neo Conservatives. (These are the same people that Phil Giraldi wrote about, America's Jews Are Driving America's Wars).

Trump's speech was laughable. The following passages illustrate how delusional the Trump is when it comes to Iran:

Iran is under the control of a fanatical regime that seized power in 1979 and forced a proud people to submit to its extremist rule. This radical regime has raided the wealth of one of the world's oldest and most vibrant nations, and spread death destruction and chaos all around the globe. . . .

The regime harbored high level terrorists in the wake of the 9/11 attacks including Osama bin Laden's son. In Iraq and Afghanistan groups supported by Iran have killed hundreds of American military personnel. The Iranian dictatorship's aggression continues to this day. The regime remains the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, and provides assistance to al-Qaida, the Taliban, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist networks. it develops, deploys and proliferates missiles that threaten American troops and our allies. It harasses American ships and threatens freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf and in the Red Sea. It imprisons Americans on false charges, and it launches cyber-attacks against our critical infrastructure, financial system and military.

The U.S is far from the only target of the Iranian dictatorship's long campaign of bloodshed. The regime violently suppresses its own citizens it shot unarmed student protestors in the street during the green revolution. This regime has fueled sectarian violence in Iraq and vicious civil wars in Yemen and Syria. In Syria, the Iranian regime has supported the atrocities of Bashar al-Assad's regime. And condone Assad's use of chemical weapons against helpless civilians including many, many children.

Where does one begin to counter such lies and misrepresentations? Who has been the most destabilizing force in the Middle East over the last 27 years? I would suggest that the United States multiple invasions of Iraq, military action in Libya and our decision to help arm and train Islamic rebels keen on overthrowing Syria's President Assad qualifies us as the biggest meddlers and chaos makers.

One of the recurring big lies being pushed in the media--by Republicans and Democrat as well as some of our allies--is that Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the World.

Who wrote Trump's de-certification speech? Part 1

 

"Iran has repeatedly insisted that it does not seek nuclear arms, but says it will not give up the ability to enrich uranium for energy and research reactors.

Instead of withdrawing outright, Trump will ask Congress to amend a law that gives lawmakers some oversight over the deal.

The Trump administration will ask Congress to add new conditions for U.S. cooperation that would address Iranian ballistic missile development as well as alleged support for terrorist or extremist groups in Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters during a briefing ahead of the president’s address. The administration also wants to address “sunset clauses” in the deal that allow Iran to resume certain nuclear activities beginning eight years after the deal went into effect in 2015.

Tillerson called that a “countdown clock to when Iran can have a nuclear program again.”

These new “trigger points” would draw lines for Iran that are separate from the deal itself, Tillerson said. 

If the amendment is approved by Congress and Iran fails to meet the new requirements, the U.S. could impose new sanctions that would effectively break the deal."  washpost

--------------

Iran is in compliance with JCPOA.  The IAEA has repeatedly said so.  Tillerson says so. Mattis says so.  Nevertheless, DJT stated today that Iran is not in compliance with the "spirit" of the deal. 

What is evidently meant by the "spirit" of the deal is Iranian willingness to obey the United States.

Among the striking things in this speech was DJT's stated intention to pressure IC analysts to accept his view of Iranian actions.

I will post this now and watch the fur fly before posting further on the subject to sum up my own views and argument in the matter of Iran.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-to-set-new-conditions-for-us-to-stay-in-iran-nuclear-deal-tossing-issue-to-congress/2017/10/13/39ac3894-af82-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html?utm_term=.ba4ffb6c6e84

And now for something scientifical ...

 

"The Falcon 9 lifted off at 6:53 p.m. EDT (2253 GMT) from historic Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. About 8.5 minutes later, the first stage came back to Earth for a pinpoint landing on the robotic SpaceX ship named "Of Course I Still Love You," which was stationed in the Atlantic Ocean. It was the second successful mission in three days for SpaceX. [The Rockets and Spaceships of SpaceX]

This was the booster's second successful landing; the first came on Feb. 19, when the rocket stage helped send SpaceX's Dragon cargo capsule on an uncrewed resupply run to the International Space Station (ISS) for NASA. (That February launch, by the way, was SpaceX's first from Pad 39A, which previously hosted liftoffs for NASA's Apollo and space shuttle programs.)"  space.com

 https://www.space.com/38434-spacex-launches-satellite-third-used-rocket.html

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Re-usable boosters are now a proven commodity.  SpaceX is IMO going to dominate the commercial space industry for a long time.  I look forward to seeing the first flight test of their heavy booster.

I have been studying quantum mechanics lately.  Any thoughts about that field?  pl

********

 

""After visiting Hyperloop One’s test site in Nevada and meeting its leadership team this past summer, I am convinced this groundbreaking technology will change transportation as we know it and dramatically cut journey times," Virgin Group founder Richard Branson said in a press release.

Hyperloop One is headed by Shervin Pishevar, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist best known as an early investor in Uber. The Los Angeles-based startup is conducting feasibility studies in Dubai and Finland for the transit system. US cities like Denver and Nevada have also submitted proposals for the construction of a Hyperloop.

The Hyperloop is a nascent transportation system that works by shooting pods through a vacuumed-sealed tube at speeds that experts say could reach 700 mph. "  BI

-----------

Branson visualizes tubes that can run underground, above ground or under water.  Pods will carry passengers or cargo in these tubes at the speeds mentioned.  He was interviewed on TV today and mentioned the prospect of cargo being unloaded offshore from ships tied up at artificial islands with the good then being loaded into pods for transport far inland bypassing existing harbors.  The harbors can then be re-developed.  pl

http://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-group-invests-hyperloop-one-richard-branson-joins-board-2017-10

The MSM are denouncing South Front as a Kremlin instrument

 

"SouthFront has repeatedly been accused of being pro-Russian propaganda, anti-Erdogan propaganda, pro-Trump propaganda, anti-Russian propaganda, pro-Iranian propaganda, pro-Assad propaganda, anti-Assad propaganda and so on. The allegations have been made by various different media outlets, think tanks and media activists.

However, the most widespread narrative is that SouthFront is part of some sophisticated Kremlin propaganda campaign or is even run by the Russian Defense Ministry. Such allegations have been spread by large pro-NATO organizations such as the Atlantic Council, or by representatives of the US Department of State or the US Department of Defense.

Now, it even looks as if both the House and Senate intelligence committees are investigating SouthFront’s interference in the US presidential election.

SouthFront supposes that it should be seen as an honor that elites of the often touted “most free” nation in the world have so highly evaluated the joint efforts of numerous experts and volunteers involved in the project.

An Oxford University study found on October 9th that SouthFront targets “US military personnel and veterans with conspiracy theories, misinformation, and other forms of junk news about military affairs and national security issues.”

In June 2017, Politico Magazine already pushed a very similar idea arguing that SouthFront is one of the projects shaking the very pillars of American society, foremost among which was the military."  South Front

----------------

I use South Front and al Masdar News to find material seldom available on the web or in broadcast news. For example, if one reads only the MSM one would never know that the R+6 have made a major contribution to winning the war against the IS jihadis and will soon deal with the HTS (Al-Qa'ida) jihadis that infest Idlib Province.

The level of media control by various governments is impressive.  The US has become what Solzhenitsyn called a "muffled zone."

I await a knock on the door.  pl

https://southfront.org/msm-shares-new-revelations-that-southfront-targets-u-s-military-community-with-conspiracy-theories-and-misinformation/

 

 

 

Israeli Defense Forces: Military Capabilities, Scenarios for the Third Lebanon War: SF

 

"On September 11, 2017, he (Liberman) also wrote “I very much advise our northern neighbours not to test us and not to threaten, because we take threats seriously. I do not recommend that they start a conflict with Israel, because for them this will end badly. Very badly”. This is the answer to Syria’s statement about the strike on the Masyaf plant, in the province of Hama in Syria, where according to unconfirmed reports from the Israeli intelligence, a missile production plant operated. “Aggressive actions against the security and stability in the region will have dangerous consequences”, said the communiqué of the Syrian command.

Israel’s Minister of Defence statement of 19 September 2017 was “We do not intend to tolerate any threats or attempts to harm the security of Israel. Whoever tries to undermine our sovereignty, our security, must know that he will pay a very high price. We are ready for any eventuality, from any direction. The IDF will cope with any surprises, problems and threats”. This statement was as a result of the shooting down of the Iranian UAV by the Israeli air defence, launched from southern Lebanon and which has not crossed the Israeli border.

In response Hassan Nasrallah said at the August 13, 2017 rally commemorating the Second Lebanon War that “Israel continuously violates Lebanese airspace, and it complains to the UN about each member of Hezbollah, or any ordinary Lebanese, standing with binoculars on the border”."  SF

------------

Yes, the Israelis have a lot of "kit."

Yes, they have hundreds of thousands of reservists of varying ages,  levels of physical condition and residual abilities of varying levels derived from their long ago service..

Yes, they have DJT, their "prize bull"  At least they do not think of him as a red heifer.  If they go to war they will certainly claim they were attacked and that offensives in every direction are necessary for the survival of the Jewish "people."  You know, Jewish people like Avigdor Liberman whose native language is Russian.  Will Trump yield to the blandishments of his pretty daughter? 

In such a war will  Israel (and the US?) wage a strategic bombing campaign against civilians in all the surrounding countries?  They probably will do that as Israel did in Lebanon in 2006.

But, pilgrims, a basic question remains as to whether or not the Israelis will have the grit to take the casualties that such a war will cost them.  pl

https://southfront.org/israeli-defense-forces-military-capabilities-scenarios-for-the-third-lebanon-war/

“US Army unprepared to deal with Russia in Europe” - TTG

“The U.S. Army’s rapid reaction force in Europe is underequipped, undermanned and inadequately organized to confront military aggression from Russia or its high-tech proxies, according to an internal study that some who have read it view as a wake-up call as the Trump administration seeks to deter an emboldened Vladimir Putin.” (Politico)

**************************

OK. This article starts off like some Cold War fever dream once again awaiting the 8th Guards Army to barrel through the Fulda Gap on its way to the Rhine. However, this report is not another neocon fear piece about the growing Russian menace. It is a sober report commissioned by the 173rd Brigade commander about the combat readiness of his own unit. It's a damning assessment.

**************************

“When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, the unit's [173rd Airborne Brigade] paratroopers were the first American troops to reach the Baltic states to deter another potential incursion on NATO’s eastern flank. But the assessment details a series of “capability gaps” the unit has identified during recent training with Ukrainian troops with experience battling Russian-backed separatists, who have used cheap drones and electronic warfare tools to pinpoint targets for artillery barrages and devastated government armored vehicles with state-of-the-art Russian antitank missiles.

Some of the shortfalls, like the brigade’s lack of air defense and electronic warfare units and over-reliance on satellite communications and GPS navigation systems, are the direct results of the Army's years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, where the enemy has no air power or other high-end equipment and technology.

“The lessons we learned from our Ukrainian partners were substantial. It was a real eye-opener on the absolute need to look at ourselves critically,” Col. Gregory Anderson, who commissioned the report earlier this year during his stint as the brigade’s commander, told POLITICO after it had obtained a copy of the report. “We felt compelled to write about our experiences and pass on what we saw and learned.”

The report has so far been distributed only through internal channels to the Army staff and other military headquarters.”  (Politico)

**************************

This isn’t a matter of being under equipped or under manned so much as it is a matter of being woefully ill trained. As the article alludes to, our experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have seriously degraded our Army’s ability to conduct modern combat. It’s not a matter of money, but of priorities. I look back at my time with 25th Infantry Division during the “Hollow Army” days of the 70s. My rifle platoon was seldom more than twenty five strong and over half of them were working on their GEDs in our down time. My weapons platoon was kept near fully manned as it should be. We were in the field training every week during our ten week green cycle. We were on the ranges or supporting other units in the field during the five week yellow cycle. During the five week red cycle, my troops were in their GED classes, standing guard mount and performing post maintenance.

We trained with an urgency borne of the realization that our equipment and numbers were wanting. I remember our new battalion commander addressing us just prior to a morning run. “Look to the west and imagine those planes coming through that pass [Kolekole Pass] to strafe our very barracks, bomb our airfield and sink our ships. Remember this with every drop of sweat you shed in training.”

We were masters of digging in. The companies maintained far more picks and shovels than what we were authorized. We lived in our DePuy fighting positions and were quite adept at camouflage. Our camouflage nets were always in place and properly employed. All this was meticulously inspected at all levels of command. We all knew, “if they can see ya, they can kill ya.” Our only body armor was our steel pots. We conducted defensive and offensive operations using only wire for communications… a lot. And thank God we didn’t have cell phones back then. It was bad enough that the pakalolo grew wild in the training areas.

Judging by what I read and view on videos of our Army fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, all that has fallen by the wayside. Maybe some of you young guns can fill us in on what’s going on.

TTG

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/02/army-study-173rd-airborne-brigade-europe-russia-242273

DECAMERON: NEO-CON RESET

Last week saw the Senate Intelligence Committee going after Russia’s influence in the “free market places of ideas”:  Twitter, Facebook, etc.  Senators fulminated over Twitter’s failure to appreciate the magnitude of the danger of Russia’s interference in free elections.  Cartoonists lampooned Russia with caricatures of the famous Russian military parades showing the Facebook and Twitter logos as displays in the parade along with tanks and missiles.

Suddenly the Senate was all atwitter over, well, Twitter.   Who’s feeding this sudden awareness?

The recently created Alliance for Securing Democracy, housed (at least for now) at the German Marshall Fund--USA is one of the core anti-Putin, anti-Russia operations that merits keeping an eye on, especially as it impacts Congressional hearings, resolutions, and media.  It’s an alliance of hard core neo-cons who were in the thick of promoting the 2003 Iraq war and the "axis of evil" attacks on Iran-Iraq-North Korea during Bush 43 administration, with the hillary-cons.   

They’re determined to turn up the heat against Moscow, not just in the United States, but to spread the Cold War mania to Europe through its GMF network.

For now, the Alliance’s money seems to be limited, but it is a clear move to migrate the "Never Trump" Republicans into alliance with the Democratic Party, even further polluting and destroying that party on the foreign policy front.

With a network of some 2 dozen operatives in the USA and Europe (including former Assistant Secretary of Defense under Obama, Derek Chollet) the Alliance for Securing Democray blog is churning out steady stream of articles about Russian interference in elections (including big focus on the latest German elections) and demanding that Congress take action to further investigate/stop Russian interference in said elections.   They claim to be monitoring 600 Russian twitter accounts that they think are threatening democracy.

A significant part of the apparatus comes from the group, Foreign Policy Initiative which went belly up in August, 2017, when it ceased operations.  According to The Nation, FPI's demise was largely due to the dropping off of funds in 2017 after the Trump election. The FPI was led by William Kristol and Robert Kagan.  These "never Trump'ers" were apparently an albatross after the 2016 elections for some Republican and conservative deep pockets who always want to keep a path open to the White House, no matter who they preferred.  

Now Kristol has a new home on the Advisory Board of the Alliance for Securing Democracy along with Michael Chertoff, and the anti-Putin ex-Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul.  Also on the Board is Jake Sullivan, a top Hillary operative at the State Dept.   Chertoff recently landed a Wall Street Journal article on September 6^th, headlined, Congress Can Help Prevent Election Hacking.   I expect there will be a lot of Congressional action on this front if the “Alliance for Securing Democracy” has its way. 

Securing democracy?  The crowd that brought us Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011?

Investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald did an impressive first expose of this outfit in July of this year, identifying the alliance between the war party neo-cons and the Democratic Party, but there’s a lot more to watch in its continuing operations to promote its Cold War agenda, especially in Congress.

https://theintercept.com/2017/07/17/with-new-d-c-policy-group-dems-continue-to-rehabilitate-and-unify-with-bush-era-neocons/

http://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/team/advisory-council

"Only one thing will work ..." DJT

 

"President Trump continued to make vague threats toward North Korea on Saturday, saying that diplomatic negotiations and agreements over the years have not worked and that “only one thing will work,” without elaborating on what that one thing would be.

“Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid . . . hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!” Trump tweeted in two messages on Saturday afternoon."  washpost

--------------

OK.  I have no idea what he is doing.  Maybe that is the idea. He has me half convinced that the intends to attack North Korea.  He has me altogether convinced that he is going to withdraw from JCPOA.

The Congress will surely re-impose sanctions against Iran if given the opportunity. Why?  They are blithering idiots under the thmb of the neocons and Israel.

If he attacks North Korea  with anything less than nuclear weapons, the NOKOs will destroy a lot of South Korea as they fight for their existence.

As a legacy of the Cold War there is no way to stop him in advance of the attack.

We live in interesting times.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/10/07/trump-on-north-korea-sorry-but-only-one-thing-will-work/?utm_term=.d967ecde9cdb

Russia and Turkey will pacify Idlib Province

 As of today (7 October) the situation in Syria is looking bad for the jihadis of HTS (AQ) and the IS out in the east.  The IS pocket east of Salamiya is all but gone and the R+6 has cleared the Deir al- Zor/Sukhna/Palmyra LOC of the predictable IS attempt to turn the R+6 out of Deir al-Zor by interrupting their logistics flow.  Just to make things really horrible for the takfiris the SAA has reached Mayadiin on the Euphrates.  Thus far the SAA have taken the airport and are fighting in the town.

The other main obstacle to government re-conquest of the country is Idlib Province.  It is now largely under control of HTS (AQ) but a de-escalation agreement among Russia, Iran Turkey and Syria has been concluded with regard to the province.  HTS is excluded from the agreement and will be fair game when the agreement is executed.

Now we have the interesting spectacle of Turkish troops massing on the Hatay Province/ Syria border with some evidence of fighting at the border having begun as HTS seeks to resist Turkish entry into Syria. 

Evidently the plan is for the Turks to break HTS power and for Russia to occupy most of the province in support of non-jihadi forces.  The Turkish side may intend to crush the Kurdish pocket around Afrin in the process thus eliminating one of Sultan Tayyip's bugaboos.

This pacification of Idlib would leave a few isolated pockets of insurgent control around the country but the Russian sponsored de-escalation negotiations seem likely to eliminate them  Assad's "policy of leniency"makes that process possible.

IMO there is probably an understanding between Putin and Trump with regard to Syria.  This understanding has probably not been communicated very far down the chain of command.  Trump is a business hustler.  He would feel very little need to communicate his private understandings to people he thinks of as his employees.  Such an understanding would stand outside the Israeli's understanding of DJT himself.  IMO "J" is correct when he writes that the Israelis see Trump as their "prize bull." 

They must be frustrated with the level of his inaction on behalf of their project for Syria.  This is sharply in contrast to his acceptance of their "program" for Iran.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-army-jihadist-rebels-clash-idlib/

https://southfront.org/erdogan-confirms-upcoming-turkish-military-intervention-in-syrias-idlib-governorate/

Trump the seducer and menacer

"It’s been an intense and oftentimes horrific week, but for some reason President Trump decided Americans should head into Friday wondering if we’re on the brink of war.

On Thursday evening, after the White House told the press it’d have nothing else for them, reporters were suddenly summoned and told the president had decided he wanted them to document his dinner with military leaders and their wives, according to the AP.

As the group posed for a photo in the State Dining Room, Trump gestured at the military officials surrounding him. “You guys know what this represents?” Trump asked. “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm. Could be the calm, the calm before the storm.”"  NY Mag

--------------

What is he doing? 

IMO this dinner was concerned with bringing the military chiefs to heel concerning Trump's  intention to de-certify Iranian compliance with JCPOA.  The group he had dinner with (Mattis, Dunford, McMaster, etc.) do not like Iran and would like to eliminate Iranian influence outside its borders but they do not want war with Iran.  At the same time the neocons and Israel are urging abandonment of JCPOA.  DJT talks to those people a lot.  They represent the Israeli desire to continue to urge the US toward war in Syria against Hizbullah and eventually Iran.  The conception of the "Iranian menace" that has been sold to Trump is largely a fantasy that insists IAEA certification of Iran's compliance does not satisfy the security needs of either Israel or the US.  The Iranians have now signaled a willingness to negotiate over their missile development program, but, no matter.  This does not matter to Israel/AIPAC.  they want Iran eliminated as a threat to their dream of regional hegemony. 

The dinner has the hallmarks of a typical hustler's deal closing event.  The nice dinner with everyone dressed up, the chamber music quartet, the presence of the ladies who are likely to hope for more such attention.  And, the implied threat is present.  "I can always get someone else."  We should remember that with the possible exception of Mattis, these men reached their present positions by kowtowing to the boss, whoever he was.

IMO Trump will abandon JCPOA and hand the result to Congress who are already in thrall to Israeli/AIPAC political warfare.

What will be the outcome?  AIPAC/Israel will continue to drag us toward war with Syria, Hizbullah and Iran and if any of thes emen object much he/they will be replaced with even more compliant or neocon oriented people.

pl 

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/trump-calls-military-dinner-calm-before-the-storm.html

The Newshour is not neutral at all

 

With the exception of Miles O'Brien's segment on Opioid Treatment, yesterday's Newshour was a continuous attack on Trump and his administration.  This was unabashedly led by Judy Woodruff who fed the pack all the leads they needed to maintain the attack. 

The Newshour gave the mayor of San Juan a lot of time for her clearly political diatribe against relief efforts in Puerto Rico.  the woman has no clue as to the logistics of a disaster like the one in Puerto Rico and is evidently unwilling to listen to the Democratic Party affiliated governor of the territory or other territorial officials who do not share her passion for attacking the relief and reconstruction work.  It would be interesting to see her phone logs.

Additionally, the Newshour gave a lot of time to Maduro the emerging tyrant in Venzuela by enabling a propaganda barrage at an energy conference in Moscow.

There was a time when the Newshour was the gold standard for US TV journalism.  That time is long gone. 

Without Lehrer's guiding hand the Newshour has become an instrument of neocon and left wing propaganda.  Mark Shields will be on the show on Friday.  Watch him to see what the Newshour is about now.

Does this program receive public funding, and if so, should it?  pl 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/episode/pbs-newshour-full-episode-oct-4-2017/

Open Thread - 5 October 2017

pl

Catalonia to declare its independence on Monday?

 

Catalonia will move on Monday to declare independence from Spain, a regional government source said, as the European Union nation nears a rupture that threatens the foundations of its young democracy and has unnerved financial markets.

Pro-independence parties which control the regional parliament have asked for a debate and vote on Monday on declaring independence, the source said. A declaration should follow this vote, although it is unclear when.

Catalan President Carles Puigdemont earlier told the BBC that his government would ask the region’s parliament to declare independence after tallying votes from last weekend’s referendum, which Madrid says was illegal.  Reuters

*********

"Puigdemont’s comments appeared after Spain’s King Felipe VI accused secessionist leaders on Tuesday of shattering democratic principles and dividing Catalan society, as tens of thousands protested against a violent police crackdown on Sunday’s vote. "  Reuters

-------------

Both the king, Felipe VI, and the EU are understandably unwilling to accept the desire of what may be only a plurality of Catalans for independence from Spain.  Some 46% of eligible voters voted in the referendum in the face of violent suppression by the Spanish Guardia Civil.

Is the Spanish Civil War going to have a re-run?  The scenario thus far seems eerily familiar.

If the Catalans leave Spain, or try to do so, surely the Basques will do much the same thing.  pl

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia/catalonia-to-move-to-declare-independence-from-spain-on-monday-idUSKCN1C9109

Hezbollah – Capabilities And Role In The Middle East - South Front

 

"After the IDF withdrawal from most of Lebanon in 1985, Hezbollah with active support from the IRGC began to create its own weapons arsenals, and the January 1989 Damascus-Tehran agreement allowed Hezbollah to restore its military infrastructure and resume operations in south Lebanon. Thus by 1991 Hezbollah became the leading Lebanese resistance force, operating in the country’s south against the IDF

Starting in early ‘90s, Hezbollah began a transition away from being a purely paramilitary formation. In the summer of ’92, Iran’s leaders recommended Hezbollah transform itself from an openly extremist organization into an active Lebanese political force. Hezbollah reached an internal compromise between the “moderates” and “radicals”, established a ceasefire with Amal, and began active preparation for parliamentary elections. Hezbollah today acts as the leading political force in Lebanon and as a major Shia social and humanitarian organization (Lebanon has an estimated 2.5 million Shia out of 6.2 million total population). IDF withdraw from south Lebanon in 2006 was a huge victory in the eyes of the Arab world. Hezbollah has truly become a significant regional factor. Growing its influence in Lebanon and Syria and the region with Iran’s help, Hezbollah has become a base for recruitment, training, and preparation of volunteers for battling Israel and radical Sunni organizations. Hezbollah units often fight like regular army nits.

One of the reasons for the rise of Hezbollah’s regional influence is the strategic coordination between the Lebanese and Iraqi Shia, and also Syrian Alawites due to the continuous war in the Middle East. It’s important to note that the organization has proved its worth even in the darkest hours of Lebanon’s history, such as the many years of almost uninterrupted slaughter, but also during the perennial clashes with its external adversaries, even dangerous ones like Israel."  South Front

---------------

Hizbullah  and its "cadre" (regular full time) forces, reserve forces and paramilitary youth movements is the strongest political and military force in Lebanon.  contrary to the misinformation fed to DJT, Hizbullah is an integral part of the Lebanese government.  It has 11 seats in the Lebanese parliament and two ministers in Saad Hariri's government of the moment.  Hariri must have been floored when DJT said to him that Hizbullah was an enemy force, but, Trump was just repeating what the Zionists tell him every day.

I was unaware that Hizbullah now has a fully formed armored brigade (tanks) that is serving in Syria.  This is IMO part of the process by which Hizbullah is becoming a regular army, in fact, the real Lebanese Army.

Bad news for Israel.  pl 

https://southfront.org/hezbollah-capabilities-and-role-in-the-middle-east/

How I Got Fired by Phil Geraldi

 

"When all is said and done the punishment that has been meted out to me and Valerie Plame proves my point. The friends of Israel rule by coercion, intimidation and through fear. If we suffer through a catastrophic war with Iran fought to placate Benjamin Netanyahu many people might begin to ask “Why?” But identifying the real cause would involve criticism of what some American Jews have been doing, which is not only fraught with consequences, but is something that also will possibly become illegal thanks to Congressional attempts to criminalize such activity. We Americans will stand by mutely as we begin to wonder what has happened to our country. And some who are more perceptive will even begin to ask why a tiny client state has been allowed to manipulate and bring ruin on the world’s only super power. Unfortunately, at that point, it will be too late to do anything about it."  Phil Geraldi

-----------------

No comment is needed.  pl

http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/how-i-got-fired/

Puerto Rico Update: The Anti-Trumpers Refuted by Willy B

I noticed that some of the commentary that followed my posting of Sept. 30 on the Puerto Rico situation went way off topic, while a few comments that were on topic were just baloney. Perhaps they were inspired by the bias against Trump that has dominated much of the news media from the day his election was confirmed and the opportunism of some political figures who have never accepted his election. The real military effort, dogged as it is by real difficulties that often stem from disasters, nevertheless continues. At least two refutations of the misinformation, by individuals who know of which they speak, have emerged in recent days to set the record straight.

I. The Refutations

    “It’s picture perfect devastation. The hurricane came through the middle of the island. 100% of the island is without power. As a Puerto Rican it troubles me to hear the misinformation about the crux of the issue.” This was Colonel Michael A. Valle, US Air Force, Commander, 101st Air and Space Operations Group, and Director of the Joint Air Component Coordination Element, 1st Air Force and native of Puerto Rico, speaking as both a military professional deeply involved in coordinating the military relief effort and as someone with family and a deep personal stake in what's happening on the island, speaking to the Huffington Post on Friday.“It’s just not true,” Col. Valle says of the major disconnect today between the perception of a lack of response from Washington verses what is really going on on the ground. “I have family here. My parents’ home is here. My uncles, aunts, cousins, are all here. As a Puerto Rican, I can tell you that the problem has nothing to do with the U.S. military, FEMA, or the DoD.”
    Valle goes on to point out that the problem isn't getting relief supplies to the island, but getting them distributed. This is because of the lack of truck drivers. The truck drivers aren't going to work because they're dealing with the same conditions as everyone else. " They can’t get to work, the infrastructure is destroyed, they can’t get fuel themselves, and they can’t call us for help because there’s no communication. The will of the people of Puerto Rico is off the charts. The truck drivers have families to take care of, many of them have no food or water. They have to take care of their family’s needs before they go off to work, and once they do go, they can’t call home,” explains Col. Valle.
    "Yes, people are in need of food and water and medical supplies and power; I personally know the people here and they are very grateful for what we are doing. I’m passionate and I’m proud of the response. We did the same response for Hurricane Irma in Florida as for Puerto Rico with Maria,” Col Valle says. “As a Puerto Rican, what happens here for the people is personal to me. To say that we are not providing all of the help and resources needed is just not true. Distribution is the key, and we are working day and night on it. I’m here, my own family is here, I know how hard this is. We need to keep doing what we are doing. It’s going to take the resource of time.”
    Another refutation comes from retired Navy Capt. Jerry Hendrix, a man with a resume as long as my arm filled with professional qualifications and academic credentials, including expertise in disaster response, who now runs the Navy's history center. He argues that the criticism of Trump is not justified at all. "First of all, there was a fair amount of anticipatory action that is not being recognized," he told Bloomberg News in a Sept. 30 interview. "Amphibious ships including the light amphibious carriers Kearsarge and Wasp and the amphibious landing ship dock Oak Hill were at sea and dispatched to Puerto Rico ahead of the hurricane’s impact." The fact that these ships are designed to send and support Marines in operations ashore also makes them excellent platforms for supporting disaster relief operations.
    The USNS Comfort, while sporting a huge medical capability, lacks the ability to operate landing craft and has only limited helicopter capability, so it has to be pier side to be most effective. The ship was designed to support large military operations and it take times to prepare it to go to sea. he stressed that it is not an "emergency response" ship. "Given that there was no certainty where the hurricane would hit, it doesn’t make sense to have readied her prior to its impact," Hendrix said.
    FEMA director Brock Long told Fox News yesterday that he simply doesn't have time for all of the noise. “The problem is information is being misrepresented across the board,” Long told “Fox News Sunday” host Chris Wallace. “I don’t have time for that. What he have time for is being laser focused on helping the people of Puerto Rico. … You should come down here. You should see what’s up.” Long acknowledged the difficulties, saying, “Every day we have progress. Every day we have setbacks. … Do we have a long way to go? Absolutely.”

II. The Current Updates

    Sixteen more helicopters from Fort Bliss will be delivered today and tomorrow to Puerto Rico, according to yesterday's Pentagon update. The USNS Comfort is expected to arrive in San Juan on Wednesday. FEMA reports assessments of 64 of 69 hospitals complete; 59 are partially or fully operational. Seven-hundred-fourteen of 1,100 retail gas stations have reopened and Forty-nine percent of grocery and big box stores are open. Eleven percent of Puerto Rico has cell service. LTG Buchanan led a DoD assessment on Saturday and has the 3rd Expeditionary Sustainment Command integrated with FEMA in development of an area-wide concept of operations focused on sustainment and commodities distribution. The second and third of the five force packages I described yesterday have arrived, providing command and control and logistical capabilities. The fourth package seems to be the 16 helicopters from Fort Bliss, while the fifth package will provide more robust medical capacity.
    An emailed Pentagon update, this morning, reports that Buchanan approved operational plans for logistics and health support last night and is re-positioning capabilities to execute these plans. The logistics concept includes establishment of additional distribution centers to get commodities closer to the municipalities, increasing distribution nodes from 11 to at least 25. The medical support concept will integrate DoD medical support capabilities, including the USNS COMFORT, two additional Role III med/surgical capabilities, and two Role II med/surgical capabilities with HHS capabilities in a regional support model to alleviate strain on local hospitals.
    U.S. Northern Command reported, yesterday, that it had 11 flights scheduled to transport approximately 310,000 meals, 150,000 liters of water, generators, tarps, additional sustainment units, and leading components of aviation command and control.
    Gov. Rossello, during yesterday's press conference in San Juan, continued to praise the federal response. The distribution of food and water is a testament to the cooperation between commonwealth and federal capabilities, Rossello said. “It is critical that we can establish what the needs are, what the expectations are and that we can guarantee that the food and water are being delivered to the people of Puerto Rico,” he said. There are still communities where the roads are blocked by landslides or where roads were washed out, he said. “One of the main efforts that the DoD will take on is making sure that we can air supply food and water to those communities while we establish direct connection through the roads,” Rossello said.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/us-military-on-puerto-rico-the-problem-is-distribution_us_59ce5906e4b0f3c468060dee

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-30/no-trump-didn-t-botch-the-puerto-rico-crisis

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/01/femas-long-no-time-for-mayors-spout-off-focused-on-puerto-rico.html

https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1330657/dod-continues-to-provide-more-response-capacity-to-puerto-rico/

http://www.northcom.mil/Newsroom/Press-Releases/Article/1330636/us-northern-command-continues-humanitarian-aid-to-puerto-rico/

https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1330602/dod-boosts-personnel-aiding-hurricane-relief-efforts-in-puerto-rico/

 

What were the guns at Las Vegas and did this man own them legally?

I confess to being irredeemably addicted to facts.  Linda (an old colleague) can testify to that.

Every time some nutter kills people with firearms I always ask the same questions;  what guns were used and were they legally obtained and possessed.

In the US, one may not own a fully automatic weapon (shoots many times when you pull the trigger) unless one possesses a machine gun license issued by the Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms federal police (ATF).  To get such a license requires heavy vetting by the ATF.

Therefore these questions of mine must be answered before one can know if it was flabbiness in the law or its execution that allowed the nutter to have whatever weapons he used.  This is particularly true if a fully automatic weapon was used.

Thus far I have heard nothing in the left wing anti-gun media that answers my questions.

Nevertheless, CNN, MSNBC, etc. were "all over" the WH press secretary today trying to drive Trumo toward gun control legislation.

And then there is Hillary, who tweeted today some nonsense about "silencers."  IMO as a practitioner of war it would have made no difference whatever to the occurrence of this horrible crime if the shooter nut had had silencers on all his weapons, whatever they were.  pl

Independence for Catalonia is a bad idea ?

"Catalonia’s defiant attempt to stage an independence referendum descended into chaos on Sunday, with hundreds of people injured in clashes with the Spanish police in one of the most serious tests of the country’s democracy since the end of the Franco dictatorship in the 1970s.

National police officers dressed in riot gear deployed in large numbers as they fanned out across Catalonia, the restive northeastern region of Spain, to close polling stations and seize ballot boxes.

Over the course of the day, the referendum took on an almost surreal cast. The voting went ahead in many towns and cities, with men and women, young and old, singing, clapping and chanting as they lined up for hours to cast ballots, even as confrontations with the police turned violent elsewhere.

The police, sent by the central government in Madrid from other parts of Spain, used rubber bullets and truncheons in some places. The clashes quickly spoiled what had been a festive, if expectant, atmosphere through the night and into the early morning among voters, many of whom had camped out inside polling stations to ensure that they would remain open."  NY Times

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 Europe is replete with ethnic, linguistic and economic fault lines.  There are many regions that might want to break away from the states that now contain them if such a project proves feasible for the Catalans.  It is easy to name a few:  South Tyrol, The Spanish Basque country.  Walloon or Flemish Belgium, Scotland,, etc.  Catalan success might spread the idea across the globe to parts of North America.

It is one thing for a country to voluntarily accept departure of an off-shore dependancy like Puerto Rico, but it would be wildly different and disruptive for a region of an existing state to force upon the central power its own separation.  pl 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/01/world/europe/catalonia-independence-referendum.html