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05 September 2017

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Will.2718

The Ammonia plant in Haifa is the Achilles Heel. The Israelis dare not bomb the civilian infrastructure of Lebanon/Levanon until they solve that problem. It can definitely be hit & they have been forewarned. Or better yet for them, get out of the Shebaa farms and that other town and leave Levanon alone! But that would be letting the Canaanites/Aramaens win!

Learned an interesting little tidbit the other day. The name for Cadmus, the Phoenician prince of Tyre (tsur for rock) and legendary founder of Thebes and carrier of the alphabet to the Hellenes, comes from the same trisyllabic root as Kadima, forward, the political party that Ariel Sharon founded. Sharon's heir Olmert was upended by prosecutorial zeal. I believe he was on track to take Israel "forward" toward resolution and accomodation w/ the indigenous people, i.e. the Palestinians. Maybe the serpentine, double talking uber Likud leader Biniyamin Netanyahu will now be undone by the same mechanism. He is reputed to have an IQ of 160, but raw intelligence is not the same as good judgment, hukkimah, wisdom, or vision. And without vision, the people will perish. Hoping for his demise!

turcopolier

Will.2718

Israel has a lot more to worry about from HB bombardment than just the Haifa ammonmia plant. I have seen te wargamed laydown of what the bombardment would reach and it is a lot. pl

Willybilly

And the Tabbouleh line will extend all the way to TABA very soon, rest assured, and we will niik immatkoun ya ikhwaat alsharmouta. Get ready for the Tabbouleh with minced meat galore, pun intended...

eakens

What would stop the Israelis from attacking from the sea (aside from Silkworms if the Israelis try to do it by ship)?

Carter was said to have an IQ of 170+.

Jack

Sir

Israel may have no choice but to accept the reality that Hezbollah are not the same as the Palestinians. A time may come when they are unable to wag the American dog, then they'll have to negotiate with their neighbors about sanctity of borders.

The R+6 combat experience with the necessary command coordination is going to be a powerful lesson forged in blood. They will prove to be a potent foe if the Israelis attempt another military adventure. I am curious if they will continue to act with impunity in the future.

Lemur

Col,

I've seen a lot of borgist media reference the increased capacity of the IAF as an effective answer to the 2006 war. The claim is typically something like'what Israeli airpower did during the whole 2006 campaign, it can now do within 48 hours.'

Seems to me like doubling down on a concept of operations that failed in principle.

mike

Will -

Forty years ago Cadmos hotel used to be 'the' in-place to stay for Americans in Beirut. It has probably been eclipsed now by the mega-corporations.

We owe much of our culture to those old sea people. The European continent was named after Cadmus' sister Europa. Her name also came from semitic roots, pre-Hebraic ones. Herodotus said the myth of Hercules was borrowed from the Phoenicians. Other historians say Aphrodite was the Phoenician Astarte.

Thirdeye

Colonel,

With or without Hezbollah east of the Golan the bottom line is the deterrent from the massive strike capability you outlined. In the context of the tremendous destruction Israel would experience and the increasing depth of Hezbollah's position with the consolidation of Shia power in Iraq and Syria, "winning" would have to mean complete regional domination if there were to be any hope - far from guaranteed - for anything more than a temporary knockdown to justify such a cost. IMO Israel's first move would most likely be something to get Sugar Daddy directly involved, both to deal with the immediate threat and to move the outcome towards something that would in their minds justify the cost to Israel. But with the rising capabilities of Iran and the commitment of Russia to maintain their interests in the region, the stakes seem much higher than the last time Sugar Daddy got a serious war hustle from Bibi. And I think we all know who would ultimately shoulder the economic burden that would accompany the destruction of a swath of Israel.

SmoothieX12

What would stop the Israelis from attacking from the sea (aside from Silkworms if the Israelis try to do it by ship)?

There are Bastion land-based complexes deployed in Syria by Russia. Their missile is P-800 Onyx, which apart from having a dedicated anti-shipping capability, has ability to strike land targets as was done couple months ago against ISIS targets. Silkworm is the least of the concerns for Israel there. Moreover, Russia can deploy X-32 (1000 kilometer range) high supersonic missiles carried by TU-22M3s. Plus all planes in Russian force there (with the exception of SU-25) are capable of carrying Kh-35 which is extremely well-protected against the whole range of ECM and can only be hard-killed. Plus, of course, Russia keeps some very potent surface combatants (both with 3M14 and anti-shipping 3M54) there. But the most important thing is what Russia has there underwater. So, it is complicated there and who said that Syria doesn't have those weapons already.

robt willmann

British diplomat and MI6 agent Alastair Crooke has an article of 1 September 2017 on the current matter of Lebanon, Israel, and Syria--

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/09/01/the-reasons-for-netanyahus-panic/

Lemur

There is an interesting article on Social Matter which argues the long term interests of Russia in the region involve playing Iran, Turkey, and Israel off against one another.

In the author's view, Israel represents the high ground between these two powers. Thus, the ultimate goal of Russian foreign is influence *within* Israel (by carrot, stick, or both). The increasing right wing drift within Israeli politics may actually benefit Russia, because it will force Israel to find a new security provider who isn't obsessed with WEIRD ideology.

Currently, in the Russian estimation, the anti-Iranian axis is preventing the emergence of a system of interactions between Turkey, Iran, and Israel that maximally benefit the bear. Thus, Russia is presently occupied with containing the Jewish state. But there is a limit to Russian support for the so called Axis of Resistance, and that limit lies where Russia judges the ACTUAL existence of Israel becomes threatened. Once it becomes clear to the Israelis Russia is the only power standing between them and an increasingly regionally dominant Iran, then the Russians will offer the carrot of cooperation in exchange for economic, technological, and geopolitical concessions.

http://www.socialmatter.net/2016/07/19/the-arc-of-russia/

Anna

Thank you for the beautiful poetic references

Phil Cattar

The Israelis/Zionists will be trying to get Russia out of the equation by hurting them financially and in other ways.They wont just be thinking militarily............

Yeah, Right

"What would stop the Israelis from attacking from the sea"

The lack of ships capable of carrying troops, probably.

A coupla' Mistrals might be nice, but they belong to Egypt.

walrus

the idea will be that Iran emboldened NK. if Iran can do a deal over a nuclear program, then so can NK. the ploy will be to link the two. expect to see opinion stuff suggesting that both NK and Iran must be attacked as they are two sides of the same coin. There may even be the suggestion that the NK "peanut" is an Iranian product or VV. my fevered opinion. i'm not well.

JohnsonR

"I maintain that the entire purpose of the Syria crisis was to get the US and NATO to do a Libya on Syria. And that was just the precondition for allowing Israel to do what the Colonel explicitly states in his post: hit Hizballah in the Bekaa Valley via Syrian territory (regardless of whether that would actually work, which is problematic.) And that in turn was just the precondition for a war with Iran - which Israel would also hand over to the US to prosecute."

That seems as plausible an overall geostrategic summary as any.

But the best response to your question "will Israel accept [the likely outcome of the Syria war]" seems to be: "what can Israel do about it?"

Which is where our host's reference to the stage being set for a Russian - Israeli air/ air defense engagement comes in.

b

The decision to let Hizbullah take over the Golan side was made after Israel slaughtered several Hizb and Iranian generals in the area. It is pay back.

--

U.S, ambo to UN Haley had claimed that the UNSC decided to put stronger control over Hizb weapons via UNIFIL. The New York Times repeated that claim as fact.

That claim was hot air. THE UNSC resolution did not change the UNIFIL mandate or procedures at all. It was a lie by Haley and her NYT stenographer.

I documented that here:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/08/nikki-haleys-amateurish-attempts-to-change-unifils-mandate-fail.html
-

I don't think that Russian air defense will clash with the IAF. Netanyahoo may try something but he will be blocked by Hizb, the SAA and his own generals. Russia will have quietly issued warnings to the Israeli generals to keep Netanyahoo in line. That should be sufficient.

Red Cloud

I've heard the argument from all sides that the outside players purposely didn't let the jihadis completely overrun Damascus, to which I say BS! Anyone who looks at a map of Damascus from back in 2013-14 can see that this was a legitimate attempt to completely overthrow the Assad government. The jihadis were so close to surrounding Damascus it's ridiculous to think anyone could control exactly how far they advanced. No, the outside players here failed in their ultimate goal to destroy Syria, and Israel being one of those players is in a far worse position now than it was before.

If the zionists were in a tough spot before, they are completely screwed now.

Bandolero

pl

"Fortified HB positions east of the Golan would further degrade this operational possibility. Will Israel accept that?"

I'm convinced Israel won't accept that and will try very hard to fight against that situation to the last American.

Jpost just published this article, quote begin:

Why Israel needs to prepare America for the upcoming conflict in Syria

... It is not too late for American diplomatic leadership to balance interests and turn down the heat, but that would mean America challenging Russian authority to make the rules in Syria and renegotiating the deal in Amman.

If the administration fails to act, Congress should take the lead, speaking clearly to the American people about how Iran’s newfound dominance in the region undermines American national security interests. ...

Quote end. Source: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Why-Israel-needs-to-prepare-America-for-the-upcoming-conflict-in-Syria-504323

Thirdeye

You beat me to it. I highly recommend that article for its candor over how Israel views Sugar Daddy.

Babak Makkinejad

They will accept it, they are supreme realists.

But they would go to US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and ask for more "stuff" - and they will get them.

Poul

A test of Russian resolve some sort?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israeli-jets-bomb-syrian-research-facility-rural-tartous-unconfirmed/

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