It seems that a military solution in Syria was possible after all...

 

"“Bashar Assad’s government has won the war militarily,” said Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Damascus who witnessed the uprising’s earliest days. “And I can’t see any prospect of the Syrian opposition being able to compel him to make dramatic concessions in a peace negotiation.”

The government has yet to fully secure areas around the capital, and fighting continues in various pockets of Syria’s east as well as the northwestern province of Idlib. Yet even Assad’s staunchest international adversaries see the continuation of his rule as a fait accompli and have urged the rebels arrayed against him to do the same.

“The nations who supported us the most … they’re all shifting their position,” said Osama Abu Zaid, an opposition spokesman contacted by phone. “We’re being pressured from all sides to draw up a more realistic vision, to accept Assad staying.”

The key to the Syrian leader’s survival has been his battlefield allies Moscow and Tehran; both have been laser-focused on keeping him in power.

Russia dispatched warplanes and elite Spetsnaz units in 2015 to stop the opposition’s advance, just as a coalition of hard-line Islamist rebels were on the cusp of overrunning key government bastions. Iran poured in materiel as well as manpower, including proxies from as far afield as Afghanistan, to bolster Assad’s exhausted troops."  LA Times

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Yes, my title is sarcastic and aimed at all those who moaned for years that "war settles nothing," and  "no military solution is possible."  "War settles nothing?"  Those who thought that should have learned a little history before spewing stupidities.  The Japanese and Germans could have given them instruction on that as could the very existence of the US which was in battle born.  It is particularly sweet to have  Robert Ford, a former US ambassador under Obama who IMO did much to enable the unrest that led to this awful war.

There was a "moment" just before the Russian intervention began when it seemed likely that the jihadis of both AQ and IS as well as their "secular" allies would manage to drive the multi-confessional Syrian government into a negotiated surrender.  That grim possibility ended with an incredible effective intervention by Russia, Iran and Hizbullah.

Will Assad take advantage of the opportunity for building a better Syria both physically and in governance?  One can hope.  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-assad-2017-story.html

Comments

[mike]

An ITIS alliance does not exist. Nobody in Iran, Iraq or Syria trusts Turkey. Erdogan is a pariah in their eyes. Erdogan's MIT sponsors Kurdish separatism in Sanandaj and Kermanshah, and Azeri resistance throughout the Iranian northeast corner.

ILIS (sometimes called IISL - Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon) is the four party alliance espoused from Tehran.

[Kooshy]

Mike, you are taking my comment out of it's particular focus, which was, all 4 states ITIS are unified against a Kurdish independence, I did not say they are allies against thin and thick or anything else, that kind of alliance only exist within the shia minorities ( due to need for a common security) from borders of east asia to mediterranean sea. But again IMO whoever is or will be leader of Turkey will be ready to sacrifice a lot of other positions or alliances against a Kurdish independent state anywhere in western asia, including joing EU or remaining as a de facto NATO member.

Thank you

[wdemallinson@gmail.com]

Cool and correct comment!

[mike]

Kooshy -

My context is thus.

Iran funds the PKK in Turkey. Turkey supports the Kurdish PJAK resistance fighters in Iran. Sounds to me like they are for the Kurds if it is not in their backyard.

Syria has no worries about Kurdish independence. The PYD has repeatedly stated that they do not seek to separate from Syria. All of their actions in cooperating with the regime tend to back up those statements.

In Iraq we will have to see how the soon coming referendum goes. Iraq will certainly go to civil war if Kirkuk, Nineveh, Diyala and Salahuddin try to leave the country along with the KRG. But if it is just the KRG that leaves? Maybe, maybe not?

[Kooshy]

Mike there is no real evidence or proof of your claims that Iran is founding PKK, and Turkey founding PJAK, that is more like Debka file / Israeli hasbara stuff. Just check all 4 states official announcement with regard to Iraqi Kurds coming independence referendum, all 4 all against any independence referendum, simple it will not be accepted, as you said, for sure it will start a civil war and a new reason for US democratic loving forces to stay around. With regard to Syrian Kurds, just review the Iraqi Kurds since 2003 in the beginning they just wanted autonomy before they wanted their independence and as a bonus some more territory.
None of this is new, Iran and Turkey have not fought for 400 years ever since 1639 treaty of Qasr e Shirin and later Erzurum (meaning Land of Rome) actually they have no border dispute and are allied regarding border security including Kurdish insurgency.

[Babak Makkinejad]

It is just a shakedown.

[mike]

Kooshy –

I never used the term ”founded”. That is ridiculous. PKK and PJAK were not founded by outside countries or agencies. They evolved and formed themselves to fight repression.

And I have never followed your debka file or AIPAC or other hasbara agitprop. I make a concerted effort to stay away from fake news sites like that and from Saudi or the IRGC sites that spread misinformation. The Turks and Iranians are the ones that blame each other for supporting Kurdish resistance groups.

The Turkish foreign ministry has for years blamed Iran supporting the PKK. In addition they have blamed Greece and Syria, claiming that Bashar Assad’s father Hafez had a PKK training camp in the Syrian/Lebanese Mountains.

The Iranian foreign ministry, just recently this year, blamed Turkey for a PJAK attack near Urmiya that killed two Iranian border guards and wounded seven more. That was in a report by FARS news agency, which is the mouthpiece of the Iranian government. PDKI, another Kurdish resistance group in Iran, is allied with Turkey according to an Iranian professor and author.

Are you claiming that the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministries are dupes of the hasbara?

[Kooshy]

Mike, I have been reading and fallowing Iranian news in Persian for over 30 years,
I have never seen or read official Iranian government blaming or claiming Turkey is helping Kurdish insurgency in Iran or for that matter heard or read Turkey blaming Iranian government for PKK. If you have seen read such thing ( in English?) would be new to me I have never seen an official one, please show me.
As far as Iranian news sites and agencies goes they are no more better, credible or linked to state than the Provda on Hudson (NYT) or Izvestia on Potomac (WP). Logically, like the American media claims that Iran is helping Taliban, claiming, stating that Iran is helping Kurdish insurgents in Turkey or visa Vera's don't make sense, not that it don't have any strategic value to either side but it rather makes Kurdish insurgency on both side stronger.
From what I understand of your past comments, as well as well read detailed knowledge of the region you show
you have, you already must know, no state in the region except for American government / military, Israel plus SKA is willing to help or protect Kurdish insurgency. IMO, part of western/ Israeli Kurdish operation could be a miss- information operation to create a wedge between Turkey and Iran on Kurdish issues. Informed people on this site will not buy to such a miss-information propaganda. If you believe Iran helps PKK tell us what would Iran' strategic or tactical gain by destabilizing Tirkey? If true why Iran saved Erdo supporting him against cope. Do Iran thinks doing that makes Turkey return the favor what is good about that for Iran?

[mike]

Kooshy -

Read FARS! Are you now claiming they are a bogus news agency trying to destabilize an Iran-Turkey friendhip? That they deliberately misquote high Foreign Ministry officials? On second thought, FARS does publish some pretty weird stuff occasionally. Maybe they got that story from the Onion. Like the Onion satire they took seriously and republished it like it was true about the majority of Americans wanting to have Ahmedinajad for our president rather than Trump or Obama.

You think Iran saved Erdogan from the coup? Wow! That is misinformation on a classic scale.

[Kooshy]

Mike thank you for your reply,
You must know Erdo spent the night of the cope in Tabriz fearing friendly NATO/Turkish Air force bombardment, according to Mr. Zarif Iranian officials were in touch with him all night, that was a political consequential risk for Iran to take supporting Erdo while our country US too almost the whole day to make such an announcement. As far as FARS news goes, if in your opinion NYT and WP compare to Onion than sure go for it it’s no difference FARS is onion. There is no proof Iranian government or Turkish Government are blaming each other for insurgency, it don’t make sense and one can’t make a case what it is the strategic benefit.

[mike]

Kooshy –

And I also thank you for the continuing dialogue.

However, I have to inform you that Erdogan spent the night of the coup attempt in Marmaris on the SW Turkish coast. From there he flew direct to Ankara, NOT to Tabriz. He did go to Tabriz in late August 2016 five to six weeks after the coup had been crushed. That was about the time that he invaded northern Syria, so he was evidently seeking Iranian concurrence and it probably had nothing to do with the July coup.

You are correct though that Foreign Minister Zarif and others in Iran (Shamkhani and Soleimani) were in touch with their Turkish counterparts that night to condemn the coup. Zarif never claimed that Erdogan sought refuge in Iran. Although it is probable that he offered him sanctuary if needed.

There is still serious doubt though that the coup was real. Most think it was a false flag by Erdogan so that he could consolidate power.

By the way, the Israeli Foreign Ministry and Bibi also condemned the coup attempt.

[Kooshy]

Mike news of Erdo spending the night in Tabriz was reported by some Iranian news site which obviously was denied officially ,. But IMO here was a good analysis why Iran was the first country to stand against the
coup, and with legal legitimate government although they differed and differ on matter of Syria.

[mike]

Kooshy -

Erdogan's plane took off from Dalaman Airport near Marmaris at 11:47PM, but had to wait in the air south of Ankara for the airport to be secured. His plane landed at 2:50AM. Flight time between Marmaris and Ankara is just over an hour and 15 minutes. So he was waiting to land for about an hour and 35 minutes in the air. you are implying that during that time he flew to Tabriz and back. Impossible!

As far as Iran being the first? Sorry to disappoint you. The EU was first to speak up publicly against the coup. And forty countries soon followed. Even many Kurds stood against the coup and stood up for the duly elected government. The KRG in Iraq did. So did the leadership of the Kurdish HDP political party in Turkey, even though they have now been outlawed and thrown in jail because they asked for Kurdish language newspapers and TV stations.

[Kooshy]

Sorry I missed to link the Al Monitor analysis

“Why was Iran so quick to rally behind Erdogan?”
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-turkey-coup-attempt-erdogan-rouhani.html#ixzz4s4waZGFP