It seems that a military solution in Syria was possible after all...

 

"“Bashar Assad’s government has won the war militarily,” said Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Damascus who witnessed the uprising’s earliest days. “And I can’t see any prospect of the Syrian opposition being able to compel him to make dramatic concessions in a peace negotiation.”

The government has yet to fully secure areas around the capital, and fighting continues in various pockets of Syria’s east as well as the northwestern province of Idlib. Yet even Assad’s staunchest international adversaries see the continuation of his rule as a fait accompli and have urged the rebels arrayed against him to do the same.

“The nations who supported us the most … they’re all shifting their position,” said Osama Abu Zaid, an opposition spokesman contacted by phone. “We’re being pressured from all sides to draw up a more realistic vision, to accept Assad staying.”

The key to the Syrian leader’s survival has been his battlefield allies Moscow and Tehran; both have been laser-focused on keeping him in power.

Russia dispatched warplanes and elite Spetsnaz units in 2015 to stop the opposition’s advance, just as a coalition of hard-line Islamist rebels were on the cusp of overrunning key government bastions. Iran poured in materiel as well as manpower, including proxies from as far afield as Afghanistan, to bolster Assad’s exhausted troops."  LA Times

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Yes, my title is sarcastic and aimed at all those who moaned for years that "war settles nothing," and  "no military solution is possible."  "War settles nothing?"  Those who thought that should have learned a little history before spewing stupidities.  The Japanese and Germans could have given them instruction on that as could the very existence of the US which was in battle born.  It is particularly sweet to have  Robert Ford, a former US ambassador under Obama who IMO did much to enable the unrest that led to this awful war.

There was a "moment" just before the Russian intervention began when it seemed likely that the jihadis of both AQ and IS as well as their "secular" allies would manage to drive the multi-confessional Syrian government into a negotiated surrender.  That grim possibility ended with an incredible effective intervention by Russia, Iran and Hizbullah.

Will Assad take advantage of the opportunity for building a better Syria both physically and in governance?  One can hope.  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-assad-2017-story.html

Comments

[turcopolier]

mike

"So maybe R+6 should really be R+7.' For quite a long time the Sheikh Maqsood kurds' cooperation with the SAG was restricted to survival level actions. Until the YPG comes to some actuak political agreement with the SAG I will not write of an R+7. If the YPG/SDF were a truly cooperating force they would be attacking across the Euphrates into the rear of IS at Ghanem Ali. pl

[turcopolier]

mike

"Not in doubt at any time, except perhaps by those in DC who never looked at a demographic map of the population numbers in the different regions of Syria." Oh, come on! you are talking about the whole US government. They all had it wrong from the beginning. I used to go to government sponsored war games in which I was the only participnt who believed a military solution was possible. The participants were a mixed bag of active and former government people along with the usual grab bag of academics and former ambassadors. These last by the way were universal in asserting that no military solution was possible. pl

[Henshaw]

Those minorities including elements that harbor independent territorial ambitions, ie Druze and Kurds.

[Poul]

The siege of Deir ez-Zour could be lifted within a couple of weeks. That should get the local tribes on board with the government. They may well have a few axes to grind with any IS survivors

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-elite-syrian-forces-just-18-km-away-deir-ezzor-city/

[The Beaver]

@ Richardstevenhack
So what will Israel and the US do next to try achieve those goals? Plan B: Attack Hizballah in Lebanon unilaterally? Plan C: tear up the Iran nuclear deal and attack Iran unilaterally?

Check the speech of Nasrallah last week ( August 28th) and you will have your answer.
You can get the English version on social media

[Eliot]

Guido,

Our policy was designed to be politically practical, not militarily effective. This is normal for Washington. There's always a military solution, provided you're willing to pay the price.

- Eliot

[turcopolier]

Eliot

"There's always a military solution, provided you're willing to pay the price." What!? You mean history has not ended? This is not the day of Jubilo? You would never know that in Borgist circles (FPE) in washington or New York. pl

[Anna]

"IMO, I think the underlying problem is that the US tends implement multiple contradictory strategies which are created by different committees (power centers in the administration)"
Perhaps inadvertently, your post leaves an impression that the US has become involved in Syria and Libya out of humanitarian concerns. The total absence of such concerns could be found in Clinton's correspondence re Libya: https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/01/06/new-hillary-emails-reveal-true-motive-for-libya-intervention/ and on the maps of Syria: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-24/oil-gas-war-over-syria-4-maps

[turcopolier]

PA

"The family is going to be forced to bend to his will, in the future." I really agree with that. In fact I agree with this whole comment. How can that be? The multi-generational Assad government was always more than just the immediate family. There was always a tribe of Alawi gorillas in the mix as well as quite a lot of Sunni Arab Baathis. Mustafa Tlas and Hikmat Shihabi come to mind. Assad now has the upper hand with them if he does not let them face him down. pl

[Dr. George W. Oprisko]

This is admittedly off topic, but cogent.

Yesterday, the DPRK successfully detonated a fission-fusion device with an
estimated yield between 100Kt and 1Mt.

They also displayed a mockup of a nuclear warhead sufficiently small so as to fit
within the nose cone of their Hwasong - 14 missile.

It would appear they are progressing rapidly with their nuclear deterrent.

INDY

[turcopolier]

James

Yes, it is a game changer, but the answer to this rule change may be that a hyper-power will not allow a minor state to hold its cities at risk. In that context Seoul's future may not be a determinant. pl

[mike]

Colonel –

You are correct about it being ”the whole US government”.

And correct that ”Sheikh Maqsood kurds' cooperation with the SAG was restricted to survival level actions” for the four long years of the siege of Aleppo. They defeated major jihadi attacks on their neighborhoods successfully without government support in late 2012 and again in late 2015 and February 2016, before finally joining in with the SAA offensive in November & December 2016.

I disagree with the statement ”If the YPG/SDF were a truly cooperating force they would be attacking across the Euphrates into the rear of IS at Ghanem Ali.“

The Tiger Force is doing very well without such help. If they wanted such assistance they could have easily gotten it. But it probably does not currently fit into the current anti-Kurdish line coming out of Damascus. And with all due respect my opinion is that an attack like that could easily turn into another ‘blue-on-gray’ disaster. No matter how well coordinated there always is some risk in such an operation even among battalions of the same regiment.

On the other hand, the SDF rescued 50 Syrian government tribal militiamen who had fled across the river during the initial Daesh counterattack at Ghanem Ali. Plus they kept Daesh from fleeing across the river when Tiger Forces returned.

PS - Who was Jubilo?

[Kooshy]

Colonel LANG-
Unfortunately, Unfortunately,Unfortunately, US' MENA policies is not made for US' self interests, it's formulated to protect it's weak, unstable, illegitimate client states that we inherited from colonial Europe.
IMO, it was much easier to have Iran and Syria and others in our side selling them iPhones than making them as a resistance force against us. I think still is not too late to change, unless this policy gets cleansed, changed wiped out our FP, by the demand of the electorate, nothing can be charged. Maybe the current president meant to change it, but he got shafted.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

re:" Those minorities including elements that harbor independent territorial ambitions, ie Druze and Kurds."
Henshaw,
Why would Assad negotiate with these seditious "minorities" who are trying to balkanize Syria in full accordance with Borg policy, especially after these folks and their backers are in the process of losing the game?
It seems, now that Colonel Lang's "military solution" has actually materialized and wrecked the hopes of the Borg, there is a propaganda blitz a-coming which will try to sell the kurds as eternal allies of SAA and Assad; one pilgrim has already came up with the term "R+7". This is a hard task...MENA is a land of ancient vendettas. Most Syrians and Iraqis are unlikely to forgive and forget.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Laguerre]

"Federalized Syria is not in the cards."

It is. You haven't been following. It's the only way you can get the Kurds and the Druze back into a unitary state, and perhaps others too. Asad took these initiatives some time ago. It was where the Iraqis got the idea from.

[Laguerre]

"Those minorities including elements that harbor independent territorial ambitions, ie Druze and Kurds."

The Druze aren't planning independence. The Kurds might not either, if it weren't for the US pushing them. They've never eliminated the Syrian army position in Hassekeh.

[Kooshy]

well said

[Babak Makkinejad]

You live in a fantasy land. Don't tell me about Druze; they made a deal with Jihadists, which cost them a village, until Israelis instructed Jihadist faction to stick to the deal. Isrealis were concerned about Druze in Isreal. As for governance: SAR will Pay Salaries - that is all that is needed.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The way great powers work is that they find foreign fools to carry their burdens; Byzantines were masters in that but France, Spain, UK, and US have not been that far behind. Saddam Hussein, the Shah of Iran, the Pakitani Junta, Erdogan have been such useful idiots.

[Thirdeye]

I'd considered that wording. The Nazi ideology threatened much more than just the Soviet Union. It was targeted against the Russians as a people.

[Thirdeye]

I should add, Stalin's line changed from defense of the revolution to defense of Russia.

[Thirdeye]

It seems that the siege of Deir Ezzor is in its last hours. Reports are that the SAA is between 6 and 8 km south of deir Ezzor, advancing from the Al Suknah direction. The garrison at the airbase (eastern pocket) reports seeing shells falling on ISIS positions.

Previous reports of the Tigers entering the 137th Brigade base (western pocket) have been refuted.

[turcopolier]

Babak

the thing about Saddam is wrong. It was entirely his idea to invade Iran seeking possession of the oil fields in SW Iran where the population was heavily Arab. He correctly perceived Iran as weak after the revolution and its decimation of its military. the decision was altogether Saddam's and had nothing to do with the US. During the war the US sought to impose an embargo on arms deliveries to both sides even as the WH idiots (North, Mcfarland, Poindexter, etc.)under the influence of Israel conspired sub rosa to provide key pieces of equipment, I-HAWK parts, TOW missiles etc. to Iran. Iraq's military purchases came almost entirely from the Warsaw Pact countries and China with France providing the airplanes and advice for three squadrons of aircraft. The amount of US equipment was trivial. It was only in the last year of the war that the US at the urging of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait began providing air tageting data to the Iraqis. pl

[turcopolier]

thirdeye

General Ben Harrell, the architect of the breakout at Anzio once told me that the problem in getting to the Alban Hills and Route 6 to Rome was not reaching these objectives. No, the problem was in staying there once you had seized them in the face of inevitably ferocious German counter-attacks. As a by-product of my discussion with TTG I have come to realize how small the highly competent Tiger Forces really are and the threat of desperate IS counter-attacks is real. pl

[Lemur]

Russia takes many different forms. By the time you get to WWII Stalin Russian mores had effected a 'revolution within the form' of Sovietism. The Soviet Union in the long run simply represented the Russian response to the birth of mass society.