HTS is going to de-escalate in Idlib?

 

"So far, three zones of de-escalation have been established: in the south along the border with Jordan, in Eastern Ghouta and to the north of Homs. Consultations on the fourth and most problematic de-escalation zone in the Idlib province are ongoing.
The idea of de-escalation zones took shape in May at the fourth Astana-format meeting, where guarantors signed a memorandum on this issue.

In July, Russia, Turkey and Iran, with help of Jordan and the United States as observers, tried to coordinate a whole range of specifics on the establishment of the four safe zones, but could not agree on all the details and sign the package of documents as a whole.

Since July, three out of four zones were coordinated and announced outside of the Astana framework.

Key attendees of the sixth international meeting on Syria in Astana will be the same as in previous gatherings. The Russian delegation will be headed by special presidential envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev and include Director of Middle East and North Africa Department in the Foreign Ministry Sergey Vershinin and Gen. Stanislav Gadzhimagomedov."  AMN

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/eyes-idlib-6th-meeting-syria-astana/

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"The plan calls for the cessation of hostilities between rebel groups and forces fighting on behalf of Bashar al-Assad's government in four so-called de-escalation zones in mainly opposition-held areas of the country, with Russia, Turkey and Iran to act as guarantors. 

The deal covers four general areas:

Zone 1: Idlib province, as well as northeastern areas of Latakia province, western areas of Aleppo province and northern areas of Hama province. There are more than one million civilians in this zone and its rebel factions are dominated by an al-Qaeda-linked alliance.

Zone 2: The Rastan and Talbiseh enclave in northern Homs province. There are approximately 180,000 civilians in this zone and its network of rebel groups includes al-Qaeda-linked fighters.

Zone 3: Eastern Ghouta in the northern Damascus countryside. Controlled by Jaish al-Islam, a powerful rebel faction that was participating in the Astana talks, it is home to about 690,000 civilians. This zone does not include the adjacent, government-besieged area of Qaboun.

Zone 4: The rebel-controlled south along the border with Jordan that includes parts of Deraa and Quneitra provinces. Up to 800,000 civilians live there.

The deal laid out the areas where rebels and government forces should halt hostilities, including air strikes, for six months. More than 2.5 million people are believed to live in the zones." Al-Jazeera

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/syria-de-escalation-zones-explained-170506050208636.html

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 Among the many things I "don't get" is the whole de-escalation thing.   If the de-escalation agreements were face saving ways for the rebels to surrender to the Syrian Government I could easily understand that, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

And now in this "process," we come to Idlib Province.  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has succeeded in dominating the province.  Dare I say that I insisted the province should be liberated in the weeks following the liberation of Aleppo City?  Ah,well ...   HTS is al-Qa'ida in Syria.  Do the Russians, Syrians, Turks, Jordanians and Americans (on the sidelines) really believe that HTS is going to make an agreement that it will keep?  pl

Comments

[JJackson]

different clue - I think we may have different views on Ergodan's relationship with with any HTS jihadis that escape over the boarder during 'the draining of the swamp'. I think they will be as welcome as the pkk and at least as much trouble. Turkman groups who were fighting Assad, and can not stomach going back to Assad rule may well be welcomed, but I can not see Ergodan having any control over HTS and, as he now needs Russian support, the HTS will merely find they have jumped out of the frying pan into the fire.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The growth of all these Sunni sects and their offshoots - say Ahmadhis - if real - only indicates that the vast majority of Muslims in the world are yet to come to grips with the world-as-it-is.

[different clue]

JJackson,

Your view of Erdogan's developing relationship with Russia and its attendant forced-modification of Erdogan's view on the jihadists and what to do with them certainly makes sense. I hope your view is correct, and that Erdogan can keep his inner self and inner urges contained with regard to the jihadis.

[different clue]

LeaNder,

Habit and inertial mass flow on the part of the weapons-senders.

[LeaNder]

Habit and inertial mass flow on the part of the weapons-senders.

Explain? Not sure what you are referring to.

I more randomly referred to this: "from Bulgaria via Ramstein to Syria?". Trying to cut matters short. Obviously the story/narrative seems more about generally procuring Russian arms all over the former "Eastern Bloc" that still owe or store them. Sarcastic--leaving out the Syrian context--opening up new market places only by cleaning/emptying the US weapon stores?

Thus, what was on YOUR mind? Mine usually responds uncontrollably chaotic on the basis of too many questions left not answered.

Strictly, when I wrote that, I wondered if the allusion to the "German military bases" wasn't used randomly. Meaning: could, outside the US army bases, German ones have been used for transfers? Why would they use it that way? The could have written US military bases in Germany.

I understand that zerohedge following FP concentrates on the "criminal networks" angle. But is that how it works?

If I follow the hints over here to our parliamentarian context, the two people mentioned no doubt are people I respect. Two names, named only.

Looked only cursorily into the German context: that means. None of them surfaced there.

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Ok, let's reduce matters on the "weapons-procurers"

The Pentagon contractor, who asked to remain anonymous, said that this had created an “environment where greed is the motivating factor among most … contractors involved”.

Only the others are greedy and want to make money? Or is there more below? Like .... he got the offer but distrusted it? Or what else? Or didn't get the contract?

[LeaNder]

In a presidentially approved covert action sanctioned by a "finding" the end user certificates would be "adjusted" as necessary

Leaving no traces?

[turcopolier]

LeaNder

It is a question of skill. you either have it or you don't. pl

[LeaNder]

Pat, to the extend I understand your response, I didn't people expert in trying to leave no traces impressive. To the extend I encountered the phenomenon in my life. Yes, there were always people involved in the 'missing paper trail'. ...

I didn't call myself a nitwit for nothing: Meaning, I never pretended to 'have it'. But then, I seem to be also disinterested in power or returning to experience their games.

[turcopolier]

LeaNder

All the major US and other intelligence services have people whose job it is to work the grey and black arms markets in pursuit of their government's foreign policy. They seldom leave traces in the paperwork. pl

[LeaNder]

Excuse the badly proofread sentence.

I didn't people expert in trying to leave no traces impressive.

Correction: I didn't find people that tried to be experts in leaving no traces impressive. ... More on my own personal, human experience layer.

Ok, yes, I forgot. Fronts and all ...

[LeaNder]

opening up new market places only by cleaning/emptying the US weapon stores?

emptying the space of former Russian weapons. Was among my first impulsive (mentally meandering) interior question responses, admittedly.

But it seems it may have been about outsourcing production to these areas too.

[turcopolier]

LeaNder

We would much prefer for the US government to buy US made equipment for foreign "partner" forces as OIF calls them, but Warsaw Pact weapons have been pervasive for a very long time in parts of the 3rd World and it has been found to be very difficult to train these forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria with US made equipment and the WP equipment is often more sturdy and wears well. It is really difficult to break WP equipment. An AK-47 or a T-72 tank are nearly soldier-proof and indestructible. American equipment is often made of more fragile stuff and require more sophisticated maintenance. That being the case the US does not want to advertise its use of WP equipment in equipping foreign armies or non-state actors. US law requires export of US made equipment if possible and we would be glad to do it. pl

[LeaNder]

Thanks Pat, helpful. Concerning the start/incipit, obviously.