Sic Semper Tyrannis

Trump, the Military, Puerto Rico and the News Media by Willy B

I. What Trump Actually Said

    If you've been depending on the major news media to keep up with the response to the disaster in Puerto Rico you might think that President Trump has been ignoring the plight of the people there both now and going forward. NBC posted a story, yesterday, headlined: "Trump Administration Won’t Promise To Fix Puerto Rico’s Infrastructure," following a tweet he issued that morning. But here's what he said on both the current and long term efforts required for Puerto Rico's recovery, in an address to the National Association of Manufacturers, later in the day, as reported by military.com:
    "We're closely coordinated with the territorial and local governments, which are totally and, unfortunately, unable to handle this catastrophic crisis on their own -- just totally unable to."    

    "The police and truck drivers are very substantially gone. They're taking care of their families and largely unable to get involved, largely unable to help. Therefore, we're forced to bring in truck drivers, security, and many, many other personnel, by the thousands. We've never seen a situation like this," he said. "Ultimately, the government of Puerto Rico will have to work with us to determine how this massive rebuilding effort -- it will end up being one of the biggest ever -- will be funded and organized, and what we will do with the tremendous amount of existing debt already on the island," Trump said.

    Does that sound like a refusal to promise to help rebuild the island? Trump's statement, here, actually begs the question of national economy, particularly on bringing back the Glass-Steagall separation of commercial banking from speculative investment banking, and a credit system to finance the rebuilding effort. Trump expressed support for the return of Glass Steagall, at least once late during the 2016 presidential campaign, and one or two times since taking office. There is legislation in both the House and the Senate to do just that, but so far, Wall Street lobbying has kept it from moving.

II. What the Military is Actually Doing

    Military officials involved in the recovery have been candid in reporting that what's been done, so far, hasn't been enough. "Our capability is building every single day, and we will keep building until we have fully met the needs of the people of Puerto Rico." Lt. Gen. Jeffrey S. Buchanan, the man in charge of the overall military effort told CNN, yesterday, that the DoD has not yet sent enough troops and vehicles to the island, though more are on the way. "We're certainly bringing in more [troops]," he said. "For example, on the military side, we're bringing in both Air Force, Navy, and Army medical capabilities in addition to aircraft, more helicopters. ... [But] it's not enough, and we're bringing more in."

    Much is being made of the pileup of shipping containers at the port in San Juan. White House Homeland Security Adviser Tom Bossert said in Thursday that the problem is the lack of trucks and truck drivers. He said that "the challenge becomes land-based distribution." It was especially difficult in the island's interior, Bossert said. "I understand the coverage in some cases is giving the appearance we are not moving fast enough," Bossert said of the growing criticism of the U.S. response.

    "What I will tell you is we are mobilizing and marshaling the resources of the United States of America in a way that is absolutely professional and fast and adequate to meet the needs," Bossert said.

    Bossert said that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers now had full responsibility for restoring power and the grid in Puerto Rico. "They've been given the mission" by federal authority to bring back power, transmission and distribution, Bossert said of USACE. USACE was also supplying 900 "super sandbags" to shore up the Guajataca Dam in the northeastern part of the island that has been in danger of failing. Each "super sandbag" weighs about 5,000 pounds, according to USACE. Two CH-47 helicopters from the Pennsylvania National Guard are on their way to deliver the sand bags to the dam.

    At the Pentagon, on Thursday, Brig. Gen. Keith Wark, director of operations for the National Guard Bureau, said that Guard and Reserve airlift into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands was averaging about 50 missions daily. "I'm expecting to maintain this level of effort for at least the next two weeks," Wark said. "We're looking at some pretty big muscle movements across DoD if we have to go in and provide the level of troop efforts that we think we are," Wark said.

    In addition, "there's planning factors for up to 10,000 additional Guardsmen. If we have to do that -- that's a big if -- that's going to be a significant amount of capability," Wark said. What the Air Force is doing now "is making sure we're sequenced across FEMA, the active force, the Guard response, and make sure that's all synchronized to get things to the various airfields" for relief in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, he said. Initially, the main problem was clearing roads around the airfields to allow relief distribution, Wark said. As a result, massive supply distribution has been a challenge, especially in Puerto Rico, he said.

    Some news reports might give you the impression that nobody is getting help in Puerto Rico. Clearly not enough are, but this report from CBS does give a glimpse into what's actually being done by the military, in this case, Marines from the Kearsarge.

    It seems to me that there are many questions that could be asked about the response that the critics aren't taking up. I can think of a few–others can probably come up with more:
     * There were two category four storms that hit Texas and Florida in the two weeks before Maria hit Puerto Rico that both required a massive, still ongoing response. How did those effect the response to Puerto Rico?
    * Is the imperial overstretch of the US military making it more difficult to allocate forces for the hurricane response? The Wasp, I know, originally departed Norfolk for an overseas deployment before it was diverted to hurricane response.
    * When military forces are deployed in any type of operation, they also require support, including food, shelter, fuel and other logistics. How does that factor into deployment calculations?

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/trump-admin-has-not-promised-fix-puerto-rico-s-infrastructure-n805986

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/353137-not-enough-troops-equipment-in-puerto-rico-says-general-in-charge-of-relief

https://www.defensetech.org/2017/09/28/low-tech-logjam-san-juan-port-stymies-puerto-rico-relief-effort/

https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1328357/pennsylvania-national-guard-joins-puerto-rico-hurricane-relief-efforts/

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/09/29/calls-military-take-over-puerto-rico-relief-new-storm-looms.html

Russia and US will build a new space station

"At the International Aeronautics Congress in Adelaide, Australia, representatives of NASA and the Russian space agency Roscosmos announced that they had signed an agreement to work together on venturing into deep space, with the first conceptual goal being a deep space gateway. In plain language, that means we're building a space station somewhere near the moon."  popsci.com

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Judging from the frustration of Russian MoD and the Syrian government as well as the bizarre actions of CENTCOM, it would be easy to conclude that the Russian and US government are at complete loggerheads, but, this says something quite different.  pl

https://www.popsci.com/nasa-russia-moon-space-station

Ho Chi Minth by Richard Sale

 

My third day at LIFE Magazine, in January, 1968, I was being introduced to various staff, and was taken to the Text Department as part of my orientation. The Text Department did long analytical articles on subjects of importance –Vietnam, the Cold War, the Mafia and organized crime. There I met a man with a game leg named Gene Farmer, and he was grumbling resentfully to me about having to take a train to New Haven to interview some `goddamn Frenchman.’”

I was curious. I asked him who the goddama Frenchman was, and Gene replied it was Paul Mus. I was blank. Who the hell was Mus? Farmer gave me a pitying look, and explained that  Mus had signed three peace treaties with Ho Chi Minh on behalf of French government. He was teaching up at Yale because he’d had a falling out with de Gaulle. He was an Oriental Scholar.

So I said I’d go, and I did.  It was an extremely cold, rainy night with gusty winds.  I made my way to Mus’s office and entered. No one was there, but then he came striding in. Mus was the first man of genius I had ever met. Mus was a short, dark haired man; he wasn’t handsome, but he was all personal force and he was extraordinarily intelligent. But he had a giant ego too, and he began right away to brag about how, in Paris during the Nazi occupation, and how, at the age of twelve, he had razored off gold buttons from the Nazi uniforms while riding the subway in Paris. It was crime punishable by death, but he hadn’t cared. In fact, he ended up having more gold buttons than the other boys.

You might comment that he wasn’t a modest man, but no great man was ever modest. He told me that he didn’t like LIFE Magazine, and said he despised its founder, Henry Luce, and said he wouldn’t cooperate with him in any way. I was watching him very carefully. I was very, very shy at that time. I was puzzled as to why he would agree to an interview with a publication he despised.

I was pathologically shy, but I liked to take risks. I saw this man, I knew he taught diplomacy in Southeast Asia, and I knew that with his personality, he completely dominated his students. You could tell that right away. So I thought, if I am to succeed here, I must be rude, to subvert the usual.

I told him, that, with all due respect, I found his remark about Mr. Luce to be “obtuse” because Luce had been dead for 18 months, and I was merely representing his organization.  I remember the careful, measuring, challenging look he gave me. I went cold for a moment, but then, all of a sudden, his whole manner changed.  I guess he had seen that I wasn’t the usual submissive toad-eater, and therefore I had become an object of interest to him. He suddenly, very abruptly, asked me if I knew French literature.  I told him I did.

Is the US in cahoots with IS? - TTG

In short, no. IS is clearly losing cohesion and any IS or allied groups not closely tied to the central leadership are beginning to despair of the fight. I think YPG/SDF units may be able to bypass some of these deflated jihadis without much of a fight. Local jihadis may also be open to local truces with the local SDF Arab tribes. I would think the US and its allied forces would be happy to avoid these fights rather than aggressively seek combat. CJTF-OIR may also be watching the success of the Russian reconciliation program in turning former enemy fighters into allies and seek to do the same east of the Euphrates. 

Yesterday Al Masdar News published an enlightening story where an “ISIS fighter admits that ISIS is forbidden to attack Kurdish forces in Deir Ezzor.”

*********

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:50 P.M.) – A video has just been released on social media showing the interview of an ISIS fighter from Deir Ezzor who admits that the terrorist group’s forces in the region are forbidden by their commanders from attacking US-backed, Kurdish-led militias.

The interviewee, Mohammed Moussa al-Shawwakh, says that his group, tasked with defending the area around the Conoco Gas Fields, was ordered to allow Kurdish forces to enter the strategic site. The order, he says, came from a top regional emir (leader) called Abu Zaid.

The ISIS fighter’s confession goes on to mention that Kurdish-led forces were also allowed to enter other gas and oil fields in the region in order to make propaganda videos.

Mohammed finishes the interview by saying that he knows for a fact that the US is attempting to establish an alliance between Kurdish forces and ISIS in Deir Ezzor province in order to undermine government-led military efforts to liberate the region."

**********

Well, this would certainly explain the ease of the YPG/SDF advance to Deir Ezzor and the lack of combat. Some will see this as proof of US-IS collusion. I see it as evidence supporting my earlier thoughts of the CJTF-OIR seeing the wisdom of neutralizing the enemy through negotiations rather than eliminating them through combat. It is evidence of IS weakness rather than US perfidy. 

Remember all that talk about the Russians and Assad being allied with IS because they were busy slamming all those other jihadis, including our unicorn army, rather than exclusively targeting IS? Many also were, and still are, in high dungeon about the whole Russian sponsored de-escalation zone effort. We were most recently mightily upset that the R+6 and Lebanon would allow a few busloads of IS jihadis and their families to leave their positions along the Syrian-Lebanese border enroute to Deir Ezzor. In my opinion, all these de-escalation efforts have put the R+6 in a far better position of neutralizing the jihadi threat in Idlib now than it was in immediately after the liberation of Aleppo. Perhaps the CJTF-OIR has realized what the R+6 discovered long ago. As Churchill said, “Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war.” Even as a tactic of war, it makes sense in this region.

What is more troubling is that we don’t know what the USG and CJTF-OIR plans to do once IS is neutralized on both sides of the Euphrates. CENTCOM is a damnably arrogant command which has long sought to maintain a sizable and influential footprint in the region. Why?

TTG

Route 5 to open through the Rastan plain

 

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and militant forces in northern Homs have accepted the terms for a de-escalation zone over the Al-Rastan Plain, the high command of the military reported from Damascus today.

According to the Syrian military, the Al-Rastan Plain will be under the de-escalation agreement; this will include the towns of Al-Rastan, Kafr Laha, Umm Sharshouh, and Talduh.

As long as all parties adhere to the de-escalation agreement, then the imperative Homs-Hama Highway (M-5 Highway) will be reopened for commerce in central Syria."  AMN

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This really sets the stage for the coming offensive to clear Idlib Province.  The M5 national highway is the major access road into Idlib from the south and on to Aleppo City

You really have to give the Russians a lot of credit for their ability to broker deals like this and then to police them with their purpose built Military Police.

HTS (Al Qa'ida) is excluded from the terms of the de-escalation agreement on Idlib Province and can be fought and destroyed there without violating the agreement.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/important-highway-reopened-militants-accept-de-escalation-zone-northern-homs/

Liberation of Idlib Province soon?

 

"Key formations of the Syrian Arab Army – many of them elite outfits – are gathering strength on the front-lines of northern Hama and western Aleppo in preparation for a massive operation to lift the siege on two key Shi’ite villages deep inside rebel-held Idlib Governorate.

According to reports, most of the Syrian Army’s elite Tiger Forces detachments, under the direct supervision of their top commander Suheil al-Hassan, have arrived in northern Hama Governorate.

At the same time, other first-rate Syrian Army formations (not specified) have arrived on the western Aleppo frontier.

The general understanding is that the Syrian Army will conduct a multi-prong offensive via both fronts with forces in the northern Hama attempting to reach the strategic town of Khan Sheikhoun in southern Idlib Governorate and those in western Aleppo advancing to lift the siege on two key Shi’ite towns – Fouaa and Kafriyah – located in central Idlib, just north of the provincial capital.

With the Syrian Army still rushing reinforcements to both Hama and Aleppo, the actual date for the commencement of this ambitious offensive against armed militant groups in Idlib is still not clear."  AMN

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Perhaps this reflects an elaborate deception plan carried out to distract attention from the east, perhaps.

OTOH, the plan reflected by indicators in this report would be devastating to the AQ affiliates (HTS primarily) in the province.  Action needs to be taken soon.  The jihadis have begun to probe the western approaches to Aleppo City and that must be decisevely ended so that a return to real life can continue in the city.

HTS has been moving forces north to confront a threatened Turkish advance into Idlib across the Hatay border supposedly in execution of the de-escalation agreement negotiated at Astana.  Perhaps this Turkish build-up is part of the putative deception plan, perhaps.

If there is really to be a drive into Idlib Province it will be instructive to see if the US and Israelis try to help their little jihadi friends.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/elite-syrian-forces-build-hama-aleppo-push-lift-siege-shiite-villages-idlib/

Trump Has His Finger On a Pulse and the NFL is in Trouble by Publius Tacitus

I do not know why Donald Trump pulls the pin on a verbal grenade and rolls it into the crowded public tent, but he appears to know what he is doing as far as appealing to his base goes. His latest lip attack came during a political rally last Friday in Alabama. The Donald was campaigning for Luther Strange and decided to verbally flay the NFL players who are using the playing of the U.S. National Anthem as their chance to kneel in protest.

The full absurdity and ignorance of the NFL players who are refusing to stand for the anthem was on display in London, England yesterday, where the Jacksonville Jaguars played the Baltimore Ravens. When the U.S. National Anthem was played several of the players dropped to their knees in protest. Yet, when the British National Anthem, God Save the Queen, was played those clowns stood. They did so out of respect. Their message was this--they have no respect for the U.S. flag or anthem.

But the irony of the moment was lost on most of these simpleton athletes--they stood for the National Anthem of a country whose bloody history included bringing slaves to America and imposing colonial rule on black men and women throughout Africa. So much for principle.

The chattering class of the Washington, New York and Hollywood elite are beside themselves over Trump outrageous denunciation. They are savaging him and are in the throes of the delusion that most of America agrees with them. But that is not the case. The NFL is in trouble. Let me give you some of the warning indicators:

• Ratings for Sunday Night Football are down significantly. Last night saw a 10% decline compared to the previous week.
• Two of my buddies in Tampa, Florida (one of them retired military) returned their season tickets today and will not renew for next year.
• Another friend called up DirectTV and canceled his NFL Season Pass. The kid handling the cancellation for DirectTV told my friend that he was the 150th call terminating the NFL subscription that day.
• The formerly San Diego Charger, now in Los Angeles, cannot even fill the tiny 35,000 seat stadium that currently houses them (note, the average NFL stadium will hold at least 75,000 fans).
• YouTube is being flooded with clips of former fans burning their NFL jerseys and hats.

I don't think Donald Trump was shooting from the hip with the lip. I think he knew exactly what he was doing in taking on the Social Justice Warriors keen on emasculating the NFL.

 

My own view is that playing national anthems at sporting events is something that normally should not be done. Consider the case of major league baseball. I guess at least 40% of the players are not U.S. citizens. But, like good guests, they stand with respect when the anthem is played. If an American is playing ball in Japan I suspect they are fully expected to stand when the Japanese anthem is played. If it were up to me I'd end the practice of raising the flag and singing the anthem.

That said I do understand the outrage among those red blooded American men and women who are fed up with a bunch of pampered, wealthy youngsters who get to pretend that their political views matter one damn bit to the fans. Most fans don't want their sports experience served up politics. Spare us the posturing. Perform great feats of physical skill. Entertain us. But don't lecture us.

That is the message I think Donald Trump understood and is playing to.

"Simian Mutual Hostility" - A Short Note On North Korea By Walrus.

Colonel Lang aptly described the current situation vis a vis the leaders of North Korea and the United States as one of "Simian Mutual Hostility" and offered his opinion that there is little chance of avoiding war.

On 23rd September the U.S. Airforce flew a bomber mission, in international airspace, closer to North Korea than ever before in "the 21st century". North Korea has responded, allegedly calling this event an Act Of War and threatening to shoot down American aircraft, even in international airspace if it happens again.

I am now of the opinion that we are, at best, one miscalculation away from the collapse of the Korean Armistice. 

Our best hope is that President Trump is much better informed on North Korea than anyone thinks and that his jibe at Kim Jong Un, labelling him "Rocket Man", is a carefully calculated master stroke of foreign policy. My own opinion is that it isn't.

Word matter and President Trump is an expert wordsmith. Despite what some people might think, his characterizations like "Lyin' Ted Cruz", "Crooked Hillary", etc. , struck deep into the subconscious of the American public where they sat and festered, likewise his tweets. "Rocket Man" is no idle jibe coming from such and experienced practitioner, what is Trump thinking?

Was the "Rocket Man" reference intended solely for a domestic audience? Hardly. Is it going to change the worlds perception of Kim in ways beneficial to America? I don't think so. It looks to me like a direct challenge, from an older man to a younger, to put up or shut up. It may be that President Trump is counting on this insult plus continued military pressure to trigger a North Korean coup. If not, then the ball is now in North Korea's court. Kim Jong Un has to respond. I do not think we will have long to wait. What say members of SST?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-asserts-its-right-to-shoot-down-us-bombers/2017/09/25/74da66c4-a204-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.6e385755a80b

 

Recommended Reading - “Special Forces Berlin: Clandestine Cold War Operations of the US Army’s Elite, 1956-1990” - TTG

“This book recognizes a unit, the members of which were among the most impactful of giants on whose shoulders the current special operators stand, whether in the SF Groups or in the most clandestine of our special operations “SMU” outfits. My generation of SF soldiers learned how to be effective in a denied area, using a complex mix of tradecraft, ingenuity, common sense, light infantry, and guerrilla warfare techniques in sabotage and subversion, with a nuance and deftness required to survive to accomplish our unconventional (UW) mission. Their exploits known to few by design, but long rumored can now be shared with the public and SOF professionals. It is fitting too that the unit be recognized and her members honored before time finishes with these great men.”

*********************

This is an excerpt from the forward to “Special Forces Berlin: Clandestine Cold War Operations of the US Army’s Elite, 1956-1990” by James Stejskal. The forward was written by LTG Charles Cleveland, USA Retired. LTG Cleveland also said this, “With all the hype generated in recent years by far less discreet and less capable special units, it’s good to read about a unit who remained in the shadows until history and discretion allowed a public accounting.” Amen to that brother Cleveland, amen to that.

This book tells the story of a unit that even many in Special Forces only knew about in vague generalities. I came to know a lot of these men. One of my instructors at the SFOQC came from Berlin. I would meet him again during a Flintlock exercise in southern Germany. I knew James “Styk” Stejskal when I was an ODA commander. More accurately, I knew of him. He was in the team building next to mine at Fort Devens. We may have talked. I don’t remember. He probably never knew I existed. There was no reason for him to know some cheese-assed junior captain. Today he describes himself as a historian, author, conflict archeologist, photographer and veteran. I worked with and learned a great deal from several others while at Devens. My team’s SOP included cellular operations and clandestine communications. I still have a copy of the POI (program of instruction) for guerrilla operations in urbanized terrain (GOUT) we developed as well as a well worn and heavily annotated copy of "Total Resistance" by Major H. von Dach. 

I worked with former Det A soldiers and a lot of old friends from 10th Group when I was assigned to an Army SMU as a brand new Army MICECP (MI Civilian Excepted Career Program) case officer. Quite a few Det A soldiers gravitated towards this SMU for there was a lot of overlap in methods of operations. I offer the example of two of these soldiers to illustrate the caliber of men common to Special Forces and to Det A in particular. 

One of the pair who we referred to as “the Germans” was a Prussian by birth. His manner was intimidating to outsiders, although I found him to warm and even funny at times. I could easily see him as a leader of colonial askaris under von Lettow-Vorbeck in German East Africa. Among his exploits, he gathered the vehicles in a Teheran warehouse to be used to support the hostage rescue mission had Operation Eagle Claw succeeded in 1980. He moved in and out of Teheran as a singleton covered as a German businessman. He is also a tropical fish breeder. I don’t mean he has a nice aquarium setup. He has a room lined with aquariums raising generations of notoriously difficult to breed species. He generously offered tons of advice to my older son when he expressed an interest in raising tropical fish. When we left for Germany my son gave “the Prussian” his three comical Kuhli Loaches. When we returned from Germany five years later, those Loaches were still going strong. BTW, my ops officer in Germany was also a Det A alumni and a veteran of Desert One.

During my second tour with this SMU, I worked with a fellow Lithuanian-American named Pranas Rimeikis. His exploits surveilling and penetrating an East European criminal enterprise in support of a German SEK operation are described in Stejskal’s book. We worked in the training troop of the SMU. During a reception we held for our students, I spent time chatting up Pranas’ Lithuanian-born father. Pranas later smilingly confronted me, “What are you doing? Recruiting my old man?” Pranas went on to become a two term mayor of Culpeper, Virginia and is now finishing up a term on the city council. My time with Pranas confirmed that there must be a gene for disdain for authority in all of Lithuanian descent. I found a short video interview from Pranas’ time as mayor. I think his personality comes through as does his identity as the son of an immigrant. I can relate to that. 

*********************

My hope is that this book, along with the exploits of the men of Det A, inspires a revival in a set of skills that I feel has atrophied with the very public rise of the special operators of JSOC and our experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. As Jim Stejskal mentioned in a talk he gave at the Daniel Morgan Academy Graduate School of National Security, our experience with the Lodge Act soldiers of Det A should inspire our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. LTG Cleveland recognized the need in a 2014 interview. “First, we needed to address a key capability gap for “high-end” UW. By “high-end” UW we mean the full range of conditions for unconventional warfare, such as where resistance movements are just beginning and operating clandestinely themselves, the occupying power is highly capable, limited safe havens exist, and/or where the degree of risk is exceptionally high.” ARSOF 2022 was published at that time as a roadmap for future SOF development. That publication mentions the 4th battalion to be organized and trained in each SF Group to specifically address this capability gap. I have no idea if this plan ever came to fruition with the establishment of the 4th battalions. I have my doubts. It’s a damned hard thing to do and these people don't grow on trees.

But then, how does this capability fit in with the humble foreign policy that many of us want?

TTG

http://www.detachment-a.org/detachment-a-clandestine-special-forces-missions-from-berlin-to-iran/

http://www.soc.mil/Assorted%20Pages/ARSOF2022_vFINAL.pdf

 

Kurdish Referendum Today

 

 "The Kurdish Independence referendum despite the pressure from Iraq and many other Middle Eastern and European countries opened its polls this morning.

The ballot contains a single question: “Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration to become an independent state?”

People will cast their ballots in about 2065 polling stations until 8PM (GMT+3) while Iraqi Kurds living abroad had the ability to vote the day before. The vote covers the territories of Northern Iraq. All combined, 5.6 million Kurds are eligible to vote according to the High Referendum Council.

With Israel being the only country to support the vote, the number of detractors is overwhelming: Turkey, Iran, Syria, Russia, the United States and the United Nations, not to mention Iraq itself, have all opposed the referendum. Amongst them, Turkey is the most vocal, threatening blocking Kurdistan, unless the plebiscite is cancelled altogether.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that Ankara would close the Habur border crossing with northern Iraq over the plebiscite and also threatened the Iraqi Kurds with blocking their key oil exports. These measures are understandable, considering there are 14 million Kurds living in Turkey that can be considered a fifth column. The rest of the detractors, on the other hand, are more reasonable: they demand that the fate of Kurdistan is to be decided by reaching an understanding with Baghdad first." SF

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" ... and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration ... "  That, pilgrims, is a direct threat to the territorial integrity of Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

I sympathize with the Kurdish desire for their own state, but the referendum is a recipe for regional war and/or sanctions, a struggle of all against the Kurds and their Israeli "friends."

I expect that the referendum will yield a positive result .  IMO the Kurds will then have the nasty experience of having the US start to distance itself from the attempted creation of a new state.  Up to this point the US has limited its objections to the usual bleating from Foggy Bottom but the need to keep the governments more or less "on side" will quickly lead to abandonment by the US.  There is an American saying that describes an unwanted relative or acquaintance as being treated like "a red-headed step child."  The Kurds should ready themselves for that.  pl 

https://southfront.org/iraqs-kurdistan-region-holds-independence-referendum-overview/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/middleeast/kurds-referendum.html

The Kentucky and Virginia Resolutions

 

"The Kentucky and Virginia Resolutions (or Resolves) were political statements drafted in 1798 and 1799, in which the Kentucky and Virginia legislatures took the position that the federal Alien and Sedition Acts were unconstitutional. The resolutions argued that the states had the right and the duty to declare unconstitutional acts of Congress that were not authorized by the Constitution. In doing so, they argued for states' rights and strict constructionism of the Constitution. The Kentucky and Virginia Resolutions of 1798 were written secretly by Vice President Thomas Jefferson and James Madison respectively.

The principles stated in the resolutions became known as the "Principles of '98". Adherents argue that the states can judge the constitutionality of central government laws and decrees. The Kentucky Resolutions of 1798 argued that each individual state has the power to declare that federal laws are unconstitutional and void. The Kentucky Resolution of 1799 added that when the states determine that a law is unconstitutional, nullification by the states is the proper remedy. The Virginia Resolutions of 1798 refer to "interposition" to express the idea that the states have a right to "interpose" to prevent harm caused by unconstitutional laws. The Virginia Resolutions contemplate joint action by the states."  wiki

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 IMO the rulings against the "Resolves" by the Supreme Court of the US are not dispositive of the principles therein.  The very power of the Supreme Court to determine the constitutionality of federal or state law is based on what should have been a trivial case involving the appointment of a deputy sheriff (Marbury) of part of the District of Columbia.  President John Adams appointed Marbury as a piece of Federalist "pork" on the night before Jefferson's inauguration.   Secretary of State Madison cancelled the appointment and Marbury sued him in the federal courts because the case involved the government of the District of Columbia which ws federal property.

There is nothing in the US Constitution that gives the power of judicial review to the federal courts.  It is claimed by the courts that the power is somehow "implied."

John Marshall, the Federalist appointed chief justice asserted that he had the right to judge the constitutionality of Madison's decision.  Jefferson, for some obscure reason, (distraction perhaps) let Marshall have his way.  It is possible that he did not foresee the consequences. Jefferson himself believed that all three branches of the federal government should determine the constitutionality of their actions and in the Kentucky Resolution, which he authored, he maintained the same power for the states.  From this seizure of jurisdiction in history the power of judicial review has been claimed by the federal courts. 

The courts have ruled in their own favor ever since?   What a  surprise!  Lincoln did not believe in state's rights?  Another surprise! pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_and_Virginia_Resolutions

Across the wide Euphrates ...

 

"As the Syrian forces readies mass crossing of the Euphrates River, the Russian military has sent new self-propelled ferries to the oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor.

Footage filmed a couple of days ago shows PMM-2M ferries unloading at the coastal Khmeimim airbase in Syria and eventually transported to the country’s east.

PMM-2M is a self-propelled ferry vehicle used for transporting wheeled and tracked non-amphibious vehicles with a loaded weight up to 42.5 tons across wide water obstacles."  AMN

--------------

This is a motorized ferry as well as an Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge (AVLB).

The Russian and Syrian engineers earlier brought forward a pontoon bridge set.  You can make ferries out of the pontons by lashing pierced steel planking (PSP) between the pontons and using outboard motors to move it.

In any event the arrival of equipment like this combined with the pontoon bridging indicates to me a determination on the part of R+6 to deny further movement of the SDF into areas east of the Euphrates that the SAG wishes to re-occupy.

Mike says that the SDF are not going to contest any of the areas that the SAG wants.  I hope that is true but DJT has delegated a great deal of authority to CENTCOM.  Who knows what they want?  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-russia-deploys-new-ferries-syrias-deir-ezzor/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92xAJKyCzC042 42.5t http://bsvt.by/en/pmm-2m-self-propelled-ferry

 

Day off

Nice day.  Play among yourselves.  pl

California: Nullification now - Secession later?

 

Nullification as a constitutional theory rests on the belief that the United States is an artifact of an agreement among the states as to a form of government agreeable to them collectively and individually and that this agreement does not oblige the states to accept laws enacted by the US Congress that the states find unconstitutional.

The ability of the states to secede from the Union is thought to rest on the language of the Declaration of Independence which states the right of a people to determine the form of their government.  In addition to that, the US Constitution contains no language that requires states to accept that the union is indissoluble.  It may be argued that this issue was settle 150 years ago, but, in fact it was not.  Force majeure decided that test of the right of the states to secede, and that settled nothing.

California is now embarked on a course of nullification of federal law and regulations.  Becerra, the new AG of the state seems to see himself as a 21st Century  Joaquin Murietta, the mythic 19th Century leader of Hispanic resistance to US government authority.

The state is refusing to cooperate with federal authorities on a variety of immigration issues.  The state legislature has now passed a law that declares the state to be a sanctuary for people illegally resident in the United States.  Governor Brown is expected to sign this into law.  To my mind that signature will put California in a state of rebellion against the federal government.

From this to secession from the Union is a plausible step if the nullification of federal law is successful.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nullification_(U.S._Constitution)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_the_United_States

BBC future newsreel on a new Korean War

"Two US experts talk to the BBC about how a conflict might unfold.

You can hear more on what a potential war would mean for the region and the wider world on the BBC podcast The Inquiry here."  BBC

-----------

At the moment I see little chance of avoiding a disastrous war.  The two leaders are simian in their squawling mutual hostility,  pl 

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-41180929/north-korea-what-would-a-war-look-like

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20170921 by Patrick Armstrong

(NOTE: Next one will be delayed, away for a couple of weeks)

WADA YA KNOW? Fake story, fake accusation as I said at the time "My default position nowadays is that it’s all lies." NYT reports that WADA has cleared 95 of the 96 athletes they looked at. But that propaganda outlet cannot resist suggesting that that Russia may have destroyed the evidence. That's the information war: smear the unfounded charge all over; when the story collapses and the damage done, move on to the next one. What we did learn however, is that a remarkable number of Western athletes have a doctor's note that allows them to take banned substances. Interesting eh?

MOSCOW ELECTIONS. While the pedestal party won overall, there was some excitement because, in a very low turnout, "liberals" organised a win in some seats in Moscow. Karlin is not impressed and points out the correlation with bicycle rental stations. Shamir takes it more seriously seeing it as the latest Washington regime change effort. Perhaps he's right: both The Guardian and Newsweek hail it (BTW: the comment by Germann Arlington absolutely nails the Big Inconsistency of Western reporting: "If the elections are rigged then the result should have been the usual 98% for Putin's party. If the election is not rigged then why is it always presented as such?"). Russian politics are pretty frowsty: the pedestal party dominates (but the Putin Team is popular) the KPRF and LDPR were led by the same guys when the USSR was still around, even Yavlinskiy (then, now) is still out there (Crimea is part of Ukraine: not a big vote getter). One day things will start to change but I doubt this is the moment.

LISTENING IN. Wikileaks tells us about Russian scanning of electronic communications. Putin often tells us that everything is done legally. Well, it always starts that way, doesn't it? If they can, they will.

ZAPAD-2017. Well, the exercise is over and Russia didn't conquer/invade/attack or even threaten anybody. Next overreaction scheduled in four years. (I amuse myself laughing at the excitables.)

SAUDI-RUSSIA VISIT. My take on Salman bin Abdulaziz' visit to Moscow. I remember that Abdulaziz switched from London to Washington in 1945 and speculate that Riyadh may again be adjusting its place in the developing new power order.

STALIN'S NOT BACK. Robinson describes a visit to a church dedicated to the New Martyrs situated on a Cheka killing ground. The truth is that Russia remembers everything.

NEW PARK. The horrible old Rossiya Hotel is gone and replaced by an interesting park (design idea).

SANCTIONS. According to the UN rapporteur, sanctions and counter-sanctions cost the EU US$3.2 billion a month; the Russian economy has lost US$55 billion in total. He calculates the total cost to both at US$155 billion. In short, he agrees that Europe has been hit much harder than Russia and certainly much more than the USA. Perhaps that was the real point: Washington's "overriding strategic objective the prevention of a German-Russian alliance".

RUSSIANS IN SYRIA. The author has sent me a file of photos which are of interest. What is immediately apparent (I can't help comparing them with what I saw during Chechnya I) is the aura of tough professional competence and lots of sophisticated kit.

S-400. Turkish President Erdoğan says Ankara has already put down a deposit on the S-400 SAM system. I am still rather puzzled: this is a crown jewel weapon system and Turkey is, still, in NATO. We are assured that this is just the export model and that even taking it apart wouldn't reveal its secrets.

TRUST. Trump announced the closure of the CIA support to Syrian rebels. Or has it ended, or was that just weasel-wording that allowed the Pentagon to continue? Who can say? Foreign Affairs magazine, no less, has just gone public with "The Pentagon Is Spending $2 Billion Running Soviet-Era Guns to Syrian Rebels" and there are persistent reports (denied by Washington of course) that US helicopters lifted people out of Deir ez-Zor after the Syrians broke the siege. (Deir ez Zor was the scene of the US attack on Syrian forces a year ago.) Trump's constant references to the Iran nuclear deal as "one of the worst" does not give anyone confidence that Washington would keep its word to Pyongyang (or anybody).

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. All the reasons why the Russia-election-interference story is bunkum. Not least of which is the remarkable inactivity of the FBI: for example "The FBI has never questioned Assange [he confirms that] or Murray" and neither has it ever looked at the DNC servers. Nonetheless, every time you think the hysteria has gone as far as it can, it goes a bit farther: Morgan Freeland joins the circus. Bershidsky trashes the latest nonsense. One can hope that it's finally jumped the shark.

NEW NWO. Beijing shows its teeth.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Whither Mueller?

 

It appears to me that the current dream/hope in the "resistance" is that Mueller will fish around enough to come up with "evidence" that DJT and some of the people in his campaign and administration have been witting or unwitting cultivated assets of the Russian state for some years. I do not really understand how that would be crime under US law unless espionage against US official secrets were involved but the political effect would be ruinous. pl

Trump's Feel Good Moment is Wrong by Publius Tacitus

A boss and mentor that played an important part in my life (he retired from the Marine Corps as a Colonel and had two tours in Vietnam) had a saying that is applies to Donald Trump's speech at the UN yesterday (Tuesday)--"If it feels really good it is probably wrong." Trump stood up at the UN and teed off on North Korea, Venezuela and Iran. His supporters and even some pundits who have been lukewarm on the matter of the Trump Presidency praised this as the best speech of his Presidency. It was a home run in their view.

I fully understand the emotional satisfaction that comes with telling a despicable soul what you really think. You peel off their skin; a verbal flaying. While that may feel good in the moment, it rarely accomplishes anything other than to make matters worse.

Years ago my wife and I shared a home in Argentina with a baker and his wife and family. The wife, a lady named Anna was an extremely difficult, selfish person. I did not know how my friend, the baker, could put up with her nonsense. One morning they emerged from their bedroom and announced that they were going to separate and would divorce. I was young and stupid. Rather than just nod and hold my tongue I spoke up. I said, "I'm sorry to hear this but I understand why. Anna, you are a very demanding, unfeeling person."

Boy, did that feel good. I got to tell her exactly what I thought. What happened next was totally unexpected. They both, husband and wife, became immediately angry with me and decided to not separate. They stayed together for two more years and then separated. But my careless intervention where I spoke what I thought was the truth ended up keeping them together when they should have gone their separate ways.

That's essentially what Donald Trump did yesterday. He spoke from the gut without thinking through the consequences. 

His threat to wipe out North Korea reminded me of Nikita Khrushchev banging his shoe on the podium at the UN. Great theater but makes one thing that the shoe banger is crazy. There is no acceptable military option in North Korea. But Trump is not the only one spouting such madness. We've heard the same delusional threats from SecDef Mattis and National Security Advisor McMaster. I learned a long time ago that you do not make threats you are not will to carry out. In fact, I'm a firm believer in the sucker punch. Why tell someone what you are going to do and how you are going to do it? That stuff only works in Hollywood.

Remember this clip from Billy Jack?

Open Thread - 20 September 2017

pl

"Demand to cancel Iran deal is an Israeli spin" by Ron Ben-Yishai

 

" ... it’s clearly in the best interest of everyone—including the US and Israel—to uphold the nuclear agreement with Iran and then increase the measures to supervise its implementation in letter and spirit. The US, for example, is currently embroiled in an active nuclear dispute with North Korea, and cancelling the nuclear agreement with Iran will only cause trouble on another front and increase China and Russia’s extortion abilities towards the US.

Moreover, the US has no interest in withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran because all its European partners would not follow in its footsteps and, as a result, Iran would have no problem bypassing the sanctions that would be imposed by the US. An American demand to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran might also split the United Nations Security Council."  Ron Ben-Yishal

--------------

Israel under its present government wants Iran to be Morgenthau-ized (made into a pastoral rug factory) so as to eliminate any possible threat to itself now or in the future.  For Israel a 1% threat is too much.  Oddly enough (irony alert) that was Cheney's number as well. 

IAEA has once again certified Iran's compliance with JCPOA.  In spite of that Israel's entourage (including DJT) claim that Iran is not in compliance with the SPIRIT of JCPOA.  What does that mean?  Evidently the argument is that without Israel friendly policies in all fields, Iran can never be in compliance with JCPOA, this in spite of the fact that JCPOA is specifically and solely concerned with a putative Iranian nuclear weapons program.  pl 

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5017556,00.html

So, Trump Tower WAS actually wiretapped by the Obama people.

"US investigators wiretapped former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort under secret court orders before and after the election, sources tell CNN, an extraordinary step involving a high-ranking campaign official now at the center of the Russia meddling probe.

The government snooping continued into early this year, including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump.  Some of the intelligence collected includes communications that sparked concerns among investigators that Manafort had encouraged the Russians to help with the campaign, according to three sources familiar with the investigation. Two of these sources, however, cautioned that the evidence is not conclusive."  CNN News

 

--------------

 

 Pilgrim Alert!

 

Trump claimed that the Obamanite administration had wiretapped Trump Tower during the election campaign of 2016.

 

The left wing media (CNN, MSNBC, NY Time, Wash Post, Etc.) hooted at that.

 

Well, pilgrims, he was right.  pl

 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/18/politics/paul-manafort-government-wiretapped-fisa-russians/index.html

Phase Three of Operation Big Dawn - TTG

“BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:30 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has kicked off the third phase of Operation Big Dawn, tonight, a source told Al-Masdar News.

According to the Syrian military, the army is going to push from the Hamimah area of southeast Homs towards the border-city of Albukamal in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.

While the Syrian Army has not yet stormed the T-2 Pumping Station, they have begun firing a barrage of missiles and artillery shells towards the Islamic State’s positions.

In the coming hours, the Russian Air Force will begin pounding the T-2 Pumping Station, while the Syrian Army’s infantry storms the Islamic State’s last positions in the Hamimah area.”  (Published on 16/09/2017 by Al Masdar News)

*******************

I think the next goal of this offensive is to take the entire Euphrates valley from Deir Ezzor to Al Bukamal. The drive towards the T2 pumping station is only one step in this offensive. SAA and allied forces have linked with Iraqi forces along the border and are coordinating their dual pushes toward Al Bukamal and Al Qaim. IS reactions to these moves now seem to be limited to spoiling raids. A recent IS “counteroffensive” towards Hamimah ended in failure with half their vehicles destroyed by Russian and Syrian airstrikes. The IS is sucking bilge water.

At Deir Ezzor, the SAA has secured the area around the airport. The last pocket of IS jihadis are now surrounded with their backs to the Euphrates. Their only choices are to swim for it or wait for the loving embrace of Issam Zahreddine’s mighty arms. Two large transport planes have already landed with supplies for SAA forces. More are sure to come. 

Saker Island has been captured clearing the way for an SAA river crossing. A Russia24 video shows two pontoon sections being launched in the river and possibly being used to ferry R+6 troops and technicals across the river. The video also shows an old PTS-2 amphibious cargo carrier carrying troops. My guess is that this was part of the operation to secure Saker Island rather than the crossing of the Euphrates. 

However, I do see  the establishment of a functioning pontoon bridge and ferry service to move a large force to the east bank of the Euphrates taking place soon.  I envision a major R+6 advance south on both sides of the Euphrates towards Al Mayadin rather than an R+6 thrust due east to cut off and further YPG/SDF southerly advance. There are reports of the ISIS Hunters already sending a force across the river. Eyes on the prize, boys, eyes on the prize.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-launches-third-phase-operation-big-dawn-deir-ezzor/

https://southfront.org/syrian-and-iraqi-forces-planning-joint-attack-on-isis-border-strongholds-of-al-qaim-and-al-bukamal/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/first-seen-footage-syrian-army-crossing-euphrates-river/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-elite-syrian-troops-reach-east-bank-euphrates-deir-ezzor/

Ken Burns' Vietnam series

I watched the first installment of this last night.  There is another tonight.  IMO this is an exceptional piece of work that will probably  become the base line of understanding of "what happened."  I, nevertheless reserve the right to argue over their interpretation of events, or yours.  pl

The Dream of Kurdistan leads where exactly?

The Iraqi Kurdish parliament has voted for a referendum on the 25th of this month.  The present Barzani leader of that parliament says that they might postpone that a bit if the somewhat frightened concerned powers propose an actual alternative date, one that is not just diplomatic pettifoggery and empty rhetoric.

The Iraqi parliament and Iraq's Shia Arab president, Abadi, have made it very clear that the state of Iraq will not accept a vote in Kurdistan for an independent Kurdish state.  The history of Iraq as a country from the end of the Ottoman Empire to the present is an endless series of iterations of resistance to Baghdad's authority followed by various combinations of Kurdish factions cooperating with the government against the other Kurdish factions.  This usually took the shape of the Talabani Kurds and the Barzani Kurds thinking of themselves as two sides of a triangular struggle with the government.  This moiety in Kurdish society seems eternal.

 Complicating the present situation is the nature of the Baghdad government which is now Shia while 90% of the Iraqi Kurds are thought to be Sunni Muslims.

A serious attempt to separate Iraqi Kurdistan from Iraq proper seems likely to lead to yet another war between Baghdad and the Kurds.

Iran, Turkey, Syria, the US are all opposed to the idea of an independent Kurdish state carved out of the existing countries of the region.  Only the Kurds and the Israelis favor the idea.  STT discussed their attitude in the wake of my piece "Is this what is driving US Kurdish policy?" on 12 September.   The Israeli attitude on this seems a part of their general policy and desire to foster enfeeblement of the countries of the region so as to have greater relative weight in the region's business.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/kurdistan-region-parliament-approves-independence-referendum-on-september-25/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iraqi-kurdistan-moves-forward-independence-referendum/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/kurdish-authorities-playing-fire-iraqi-prime-minister-abadi/

 

Underwriters - republished 17 September 2017 - Not an appeal for donations

 

(re-published as a re-statement of SST policy)

Having had 17 million, 200 thousand visits in the last 12 years, (now - 17 September, 2017 - half a million more page views) I have decided once again to seek underwriters (sponsors) for my blogging efforts.  This is a small operation.  It takes a lot of time.  There are opportunity costs for me. 

Foundations (preferred) or corporations that make grants to my blogs should understand that the money will go in my pocket in payment for what I do.  I will pay whatever costs the blogs have.

What the underwriters will get is an acknowledgement on the blogs (if they want that).  They will also assure that I continue doing this for a while.  What they will not get is editorial control, content control or title.

I hope that pranksters do not bother me with foolishness that wastes my time.  Enquiries should include full contact data; website, phone numbers, a responsible person to contact, etc. 

I am grateful to all those individuals who have made donations in the past.  pl

---------

Surprisingly - someone wrote to me yesterday (16 September) to attempt to exert editorial control specifically on the basis of a past donation.  This was accompanied with an exhortation to be more solemn and professional  and to stop calling you "pilgrims."  I told this person that I will continue to write as I please.  pl

"Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation?" The Atlantic

"Today’s teens are ... less likely to date. The initial stage of courtship, which Gen Xers called “liking” (as in “Ooh, he likes you!”), kids now call “talking”—an ironic choice for a generation that prefers texting to actual conversation. After two teens have “talked” for a while, they might start dating. But only about 56 percent of high-school seniors in 2015 went out on dates; for Boomers and Gen Xers, the number was about 85 percent.

The decline in dating tracks with a decline in sexual activity. The drop is the sharpest for ninth-graders, among whom the number of sexually active teens has been cut by almost 40 percent since 1991. The average teen now has had sex for the first time by the spring of 11th grade, a full year later than the average Gen Xer. Fewer teens having sex has contributed to what many see as one of the most positive youth trends in recent years: The teen birth rate hit an all-time low in 2016, down 67 percent since its modern peak, in 1991.

Even driving, a symbol of adolescent freedom inscribed in American popular culture, from Rebel Without a Cause to Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, has lost its appeal for today’s teens. Nearly all Boomer high-school students had their driver’s license by the spring of their senior year; more than one in four teens today still lack one at the end of high school. For some, Mom and Dad are such good chauffeurs that there’s no urgent need to drive. “My parents drove me everywhere and never complained, so I always had rides,” a 21-year-old student in San Diego told me. “I didn’t get my license until my mom told me I had to because she could not keep driving me to school.” She finally got her license six months after her 18th birthday. In conversation after conversation, teens described getting their license as something to be nagged into by their parents—a notion that would have been unthinkable to previous generations."  The Atlantic

-------------

 Well, pilgrims, my generation did all these things with a vengeance as soon as we could manage it and we could hardly wait to leave home. This was in the 50s.  The idea of having your mom drive you to school would have been pretty close to the world's worst thing. 

I know a number of young people from the generation under discussion and they are incomprehensible to me.  They are well described in this article.  They seem to be frozen in childhood, content to be fed, watered like plants and expectant of endless praise whether it is deserved or not.   This brings to mind Garrison Keilors description of the children of his mythical Lake Wobegon, Minnesota who are said to be "all above average."

They remind me of the completely isolated people in Asimov's novel "The Caves of Steel" in which individuals live isolated from each other, communicating and working remotely., only coming together occasionally for reproductive sex.

 One wonders what happens when these creatures are finally forced to live and interact in the context of an organization that demands performance in return for money.  Ah, well I have seen this occur among the children of my friends.  Typically these young people have a hard time holding a job.  pl

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/has-the-smartphone-destroyed-a-generation/534198/

Turkey, Russia and Iran will police Idlib - HTS beware.

 

"The militant-held province of Idlib, mostly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda), had been the main problem of the initiative since its official announcement in May. Now, it seems that the decision how to solve it was at least partly agreed.

The de-escalation zones are “a temporary measure which will initially last 6 months and will be automatically extended on the basis of guarantors’ consensus,” according to the statement.

The sides also introduced a joint Iranian-Russian-Turkish Coordination Center “to coordinate activities in the de-escalation areas.”

Eaerlier reports appeared that the sides agreed the borders of the zone in Idlib and were negotiating over which monitors will be deployed. The Turkish media pushed an idea that 25,000 members of the Turkish Army and Turkish-backed groups of the Free Syrian Army could be involved in the operation.

Meanwhile, the Russian military continued efforts to recinfile the warrying sides in Syria. 7 field commanders and over 1,000 militants have defected to the Syrian Army, the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of Opposing Sides in Syria said on Thursday."  SF

 https://southfront.org/establishment-of-four-de-escalation-zones-including-idlib-in-syria-officially-announced/

******

 "The Russian newspaper Izvestia quoted diplomatic sources as saying that the Saudi authorities consider that the Syrian President Bashar Assad can play an important role in the political future of his country.

Sputnik news agency published the report and pointed out that Saudi political analysts see that President Assad can be a part of the ‘transitional government, noting that the regional states are no longer raising the issue of President Assad’s departure in the closed sessions and describing the Saudi stance as an unexpected change.

A diplomatic source maintained that the Saudi do realize that the balance of power imposes the reality of President Assad, adding that the KSA officials are obliged to accept this fact despite their intention to overthrow Syria leader whenever possible."  AMN 

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/saudi-president-assad-can-play-important-role-syrias-future/

-----------

 The idea seems to be that the "protecting powers" will split off as much of the HTS coalition, leaving the hard core HTS (A--Qa'ida) isolated and vulnerable to a clean-up at some early date.

The end state difficulty (after six months?) will be to ensure that Turkey withdraws its troops to Turkish soil.  Irredentist yearning for Ottoman lands still burns in the bosom of Sultan Tayyip.  pl

-----------

If Saudi Arabia has accepted reality in Syria, wonders have not ceased upon the earth.  They might even wise up about their losing war in Yemen.  pl

Good news from Syria

 

"The US and Russia rejected an Israeli request to prevent the presence of any Iranian forces or Iranian-backed militias near the Israeli border as a part of the ceasefire agreement in south Syria, the Israeli Haaretz newspaper reported on Thursday.

According to the report, Israel demanded to create a 60-80km wide buffer zone inside Syria against Iranian-backed forces. The supposed buffer zone would spread from the Golan Heights to the west of the Damascus-al-Suwayda highway in southwestern Syria.

Israel proposed its idea to Russia and the US during the talks that preceded the cease-fire agreement in southern Syria. According to the report, Russia refused the Israeli proposal, while the US didn’t back it for real mostly.

However, Russia promised Israel that the Iranians and their allies will not move any closer to Israel than five kilometers in the areas held by the Syrian government. The report noted that no Iranian presence was notified on the frontline with Syria for months now."  SF 

https://southfront.org/russia-resfused-israel-demand-of-60km-buffer-zone-against-iranian-backed-forces-in-southern-syria/

*****

"The US Coalition forces are not planning to enter Deir Ezzor City, the spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve, U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, told reporters on Thursday.

“I’ll just tell you that the plan is not to go into Deir Ezzor City, but there (are) plenty of ISIS fighters and resources and leaders that continue to have holdouts throughout the middle Euphrates River valley,” Dillon concluded.

It was initially believed the US Coalition would attempt to out-maneuver the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the strategic city of Albukamal on the Iraqi border; however, this does not appear to be an option for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)." 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-forces-not-entering-deir-ezzor-city-coalition-spokesperson/

---------------

 "You asked "Is there a SAG-SDF deal?" This morning's press briefing by Coalition Spokesman indicated that the SDF do have direct communications with the regime. It is through their own line of communication and NOT through the Russian/CJTF deconfliction hotline. Did not go into detail, did not indicate at what level either on the SDF side or on the regime side. So at least there are talks going on even if it is not a full fledged deal."  Comment from Mike

----------

1.  The US/Russian refusal of Israel's wish for a 50 km. buffer zone free of Iranian/Hizbullah presence east of the Golan Heights occupation line suggests that there is substantial US/Russian coordination on Syria policy.

2.  Yesterday, the US coalition forces announced through its official spokesman, that SDF forces would not try to enter the city of Deir al-Zor.  This did not seem to be the case earlier given the SDF's rapid advance to the cross Euphrates suburbs of the city.  This suggests that the policy of coordination with Russia in Syria has percolated from the White House to the US field command or that the SDF has told their American minders that they are not willing try to "outmaneuver" the Syrian government east of the Euphrates.

3.  Mike's comment above indicates that a separate non/US-Russian link now exists between the SDF and the Syrian government.  This bodes well for a post civil war Syria and its territorial integrity.  pl

HTS is going to de-escalate in Idlib?

 

"So far, three zones of de-escalation have been established: in the south along the border with Jordan, in Eastern Ghouta and to the north of Homs. Consultations on the fourth and most problematic de-escalation zone in the Idlib province are ongoing.
The idea of de-escalation zones took shape in May at the fourth Astana-format meeting, where guarantors signed a memorandum on this issue.

In July, Russia, Turkey and Iran, with help of Jordan and the United States as observers, tried to coordinate a whole range of specifics on the establishment of the four safe zones, but could not agree on all the details and sign the package of documents as a whole.

Since July, three out of four zones were coordinated and announced outside of the Astana framework.

Key attendees of the sixth international meeting on Syria in Astana will be the same as in previous gatherings. The Russian delegation will be headed by special presidential envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev and include Director of Middle East and North Africa Department in the Foreign Ministry Sergey Vershinin and Gen. Stanislav Gadzhimagomedov."  AMN

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/eyes-idlib-6th-meeting-syria-astana/

******

"The plan calls for the cessation of hostilities between rebel groups and forces fighting on behalf of Bashar al-Assad's government in four so-called de-escalation zones in mainly opposition-held areas of the country, with Russia, Turkey and Iran to act as guarantors. 

The deal covers four general areas:

Zone 1: Idlib province, as well as northeastern areas of Latakia province, western areas of Aleppo province and northern areas of Hama province. There are more than one million civilians in this zone and its rebel factions are dominated by an al-Qaeda-linked alliance.

Zone 2: The Rastan and Talbiseh enclave in northern Homs province. There are approximately 180,000 civilians in this zone and its network of rebel groups includes al-Qaeda-linked fighters.

Zone 3: Eastern Ghouta in the northern Damascus countryside. Controlled by Jaish al-Islam, a powerful rebel faction that was participating in the Astana talks, it is home to about 690,000 civilians. This zone does not include the adjacent, government-besieged area of Qaboun.

Zone 4: The rebel-controlled south along the border with Jordan that includes parts of Deraa and Quneitra provinces. Up to 800,000 civilians live there.

The deal laid out the areas where rebels and government forces should halt hostilities, including air strikes, for six months. More than 2.5 million people are believed to live in the zones." Al-Jazeera

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/syria-de-escalation-zones-explained-170506050208636.html

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 Among the many things I "don't get" is the whole de-escalation thing.   If the de-escalation agreements were face saving ways for the rebels to surrender to the Syrian Government I could easily understand that, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

And now in this "process," we come to Idlib Province.  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has succeeded in dominating the province.  Dare I say that I insisted the province should be liberated in the weeks following the liberation of Aleppo City?  Ah,well ...   HTS is al-Qa'ida in Syria.  Do the Russians, Syrians, Turks, Jordanians and Americans (on the sidelines) really believe that HTS is going to make an agreement that it will keep?  pl

A vacuum cleaner for space junk

 

"Think of the latest idea of collecting space junk as something akin to a hungry tiger pouncing on its prey. Aerospace Corporation says its Brane Craft will wrap itself around debris orbiting Earth and drag it back down through the atmosphere, causing it to burn up and never again threaten satellites or astronauts.

The project recently received a second round of funding from the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts program, which funds far-out ideas that remain years away from launch — if they get there at all.

The Brane Craft is a yard across, flexible, and less than half the thickness of a human hair. This makes it difficult to protect the spacecraft's electronics from radiation, or even micrometeorites."  space.com

-------------

And now for a break from lefty bashing and war analysis.

I am a space freak born a few hundred years too early.  This device looks promising to me.  The orbital trash problem is becoming severe.  This would be worth the money to NASA.  pl

 http//www.space.com/38105-ultrathin-craft-could-destroy-space-junk.html

Is this what is driving US Kurdish policy?

 

"Maj. Gen. Yair Golan also said that he saw ISIS fighters walking on the Syrian-Israeli front, and that he “can cope with that”. However, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan said that he can’t cope with Iran, and said that Iran is a “much more threatening compared to the ISIS threat.”

“Because the Iranians are sophisticated, they are a higher form of civilization, they have a nice academic infrastructure, nice industry, good scientists, many talented young people. They are very similar to us. And because they are similar to us, they are much, much more dangerous,” Maj. Gen. Golan said.

Furthermore, Maj. Gen. Golan said that Israel can effect Iran just like Iran can effect it. However, he said that Israel can’t do anything serious to Iran without a help from the USA.

“And while we can achieve decisive victory over Hezbollah… and while we can defeat any Shia militia in Syria … we cannot fight Iran alone,” Maj. Gen. Yair Golan said.

Maj. Gen. Yair Golan is well-known for his controversial statements. In general, Israel officials say that his statements don’t represent the state of the official Israeli attitude. However, Maj. Gen. Golan’s statements about the Kurds and Iran clearly reflect the current policy of the Israeli government."  Golan & SF

********

 "During an international counter-terrorism conference in Herzliya on September 11, Israeli Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked announced that Israel supports the idea of turning Iraq’s Kurdistan Region into an independent state.

Shaked added that Israel and Western countries have a major interest in this case.

“Israel [and] the Western countries have a major interest in the establishment of the state of Kurdistan,” the minister said. “I think that the time has come for the US to support the process.”

The statement came ahead a referendum on the Kurdistan Region independence from Iraq that is scheduled for September 25.

This is not the first time when top Israeli officials clearly support the idea of creation of the independnet Kurdish state in the Middle East. They expect it will be friendly toward Israel and allow to shift further the balance of power in the region.

In 2016, Ayelet Shaked already called for this during the ninth annual International INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) Conference in Israel."   Shaked & SF

-------------

If this is actual "thinking "  in current Israeli government circles, then this is yet another demonstration of the unreality of the milieu in which Israelis live.  The notion that Turkey would give up half of eastern Anatolia and the port of Iskenderun is laughable. 

Iraq, Syria and Iran are supposed to contribute Territiry and natural resources to this fantastical project hatched in Israel?

Is eastern Syria supposed to be the first "building block" for construction of Israeli Kurdistan?  pl 

https://southfront.org/israeli-general-pkk-not-terrorist-organization/

https://southfront.org/israeli-justice-minister-israel-and-west-have-major-interest-in-establishing-independent-kurdistan/

 

Deir al-Zor Province - the wild east of Syria

 

According to "reports,"  IS has launched a serious counter-attack to keep the US backed SDF from reaching the city of Deir al Zor for the purpose of occupying the part of the city still under IS control.  If this is really happining, the event will prove tricky for the ant-American left to explain how it is that the shifty Americans have caused IS (seen as a US proxie) to fight to prevent the US proxie (irony) SDF succeeding in reaching the city.

But!  At the same time the tricky Americans are engaged in inducing various tribal sheikhs' defection from their past "allegiance" to IS.  How can this be!  Are not these sheikhs forever stained and unusable.  It would seem to be that they are not!  Your humble guide though the tortuous maze of eastern Syria and other parts Saracen, learned in a long and misspent life that tribal sheikhs have no fixed loyalties.  Alas!

And then, pilgrims, there is the case of a Syrian government intelligence officer who successfully infiltrated IS in the wild east of Syria and posed as an IS emir for some three years ... Bravo mon vieux!  Bravo!  I would say of this man that he had balls as big as basketballs and is lucky to have not ended with them lodged between the jaws of his decapitated head.  Could such a thing have occurred?  Certainly!  He was a Syrian Arab, spoke the language with the right accent, showed up at a particularly fluid moment and prayed a lot.  He was still damned lucky.  Civil wars make such exploits possible.  You might want to ask Claude Devereux about that if you run into him.

 
Lastly, there appears to be a deep split in the policy of the DJT Administration between the generals active and retired, who want to carve out some sort of Kurdish and "friendly" Arab lodgement in east Syria for god knows what purpose, and the domestically oriented right wing policy wonks who are seeking counter-revolution in the US.  Trump?  Who knows?  Perhps he just wants this teaspoon full of oil to improve what he sees as a bad balance sheet over the last 16 years.

Evelyn Waugh would have loved this scene.  pl

https://southfront.org/isis-launches-counter-attack-in-attempt-to-push-us-backed-forces-from-deir-ezzor-city-map/

https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-negotiates-with-tribal-sheiks-linked-to-isis-to-gain-local-support-in-raqqah-photos/

https://southfront.org/us-backed-forces-announce-plans-for-liberating-deir-ezzor-city-forming-civil-council-to-rule-it/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-intelligence-officer-posed-isil-emir-several-years-deir-ezzor/

Is there a SAG-SDF deal?

 "On Sunday, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Deir Ezzor Military Council (DMZ) announced that they reached the industrial zone in the northwestern countryside of Deir Ezzor city. However, the SDF didn’t announce that the industrial zone is under its full control.

With this advance, the SDF deployed in only 15Km away from Deir Ezzor city. Furthermore, The SDF released an official video of its forces near the industrial area. All fighters who appeared in the video were speaking Kurdish language."  SF

-----------

 Lots of interesting things going on in Syria just now:

1.  The US coalition has stopped surveilling the bus convoy.  The RuAF is now operating in strength so far east that the remaining buses are well within the Russian operating area and an agreement was reached for the US led air to pull back to the east to avoid an inadvertent engagement.  ISIS people had reached the buses before the withdrawal of US aircraft from the area.

2. A Syrian air defense engagement with a pair of Israeli F-15s is reported.  Supposedly the Syrians fired S-200 SAMS at the jets which were conducting a reconnaissance over Lebanon.  The slant range would be adequate for the missiles to have been fired from within Syria.

3.  A new Syrian ground force has completed Russian led training and will deploy to somewhere in Syria.  It will be interesting to learn what they call this outfit.  The last one they trained was designated 5th Corps.  6th Corps maybe?  Returning refugees are being recruited into the SAA and this will ease the chronic manpower shartage for the SAA.  Everyone wants to join a winner and the SAG  now looks like a winner.

4.  The R+6 continue to consolidate their positions around Deir al-Zor City to include the military airport which had long been held by IS and the logistics highway that leads back to Sukhna and parts west.  This is very important for the civilian population of the Deir al-Zor area as well as the ever strengthening R+6 force around the city.

5.  The IS pocket in Homs Province grows ever smaller under constant pressure from R+6 forces.

6.  The R+6 forces have brought forward a bridging train to the Deir al-Zor area.  This convoy has a lot of pontons with it and the intention seem clear to bridge the Euphates so as to deny the SDF control of the east bank of the river and the Syrian territory there.

7.  IS forces appear to be falling back to SE of Deir al-Zor City to somewhere they can make a last stand.

8.  SDF forces have advanced to withing 15 km. of the Euphrates and are in the Deir-Al-Zor industrial area east of the river.  A US general made a perhaps vacuous comment at a conference a couple of days ago that the R+6 will not be allowed to cross the Euphrates.  This is extremely worrying as a battle between the SAA and SDF might result from such a policy.  The two sides are heavily supported by US and Russian air.  One would hope that there is some sort of accomodation between the SAG and the SDF as to limits.  pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-democratic-forces-reach-deir-ezzor-industrial-zone/

Israel is testing Russia ...

 

"If reports are confirmed, this will be another sign of the growing Israeli military activity over the ongoing Syrian war caused by a series of success of the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance against ISIS across the country.

On September 7, the Israeli Air Force carried out a missile strike on a Syrian military facility near Masyaf town located west of Hama city in central Syria. The strike allegedly hit a weapon depot at the medium-range ballistic missiles plant located in the area. Some pro-Israeli sources speculated that a chemical weapons plant became a target of the strike.

At the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said that Israel is ready to do everything to prevent a Shi’ite corridor from Tehran to Damascus and to defend own interests in the region.

Israel increased its military and media activity over the Syrian war after Tel Aviv had failed to get a Russian support in an attempt to influence the US-Russian negotiations aimed at reaching a final settlement agreement over the conflict in Syria.

The Israeli media even accused Russia of providing a diplomatic cover for Hezbollah in the United Nations Security Council.

Tel Aviv is deeply concerned over the collapse of ISIS in Syria and Iraq and fears that the Syrian crisis could be solved in a way ignoring a major part of Tel Aviv’s “interests” in the region."  SF

-------------

Israel's self image is being severely stressed by the survival of the Syrian Government and the failure of Israel's attempt to instigate rule in Syria of manageable and fragmented jihadi and semi-secular groups. 

A concomitant feature of this Syrian Government survival is introduction of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps troops from the Al-Quds force and their allies in Lebanese Hizbullah.  These forces have played a significsant role in preserving the Syrian Government.  They now are taking their places as a key element in containing Israel at the line of the Golan Heights.

The Israelis do not like that.  Their current "life illusion' centers on Iran and its little friends as avatars of the larger world gentile menace.  The specter of a "Shiite land corridor to the Mediterranean " is dominant among people like avigdor Liberman.    "We will do what we must!" is the threat.

Russia stands in the way of this fantasy of regional domination by what is really a very small state heavily armed and heavily funded by an ignorant and distant giant.

For the Likudnik world view to prevail Russia must be taught a lesson.  The Israeli air attack on Masyaf, carried out from the neutral sanctuary of Lebanese air space and this move forward of Israeli ground forces farther into Syrian territory are opening gambits to see of the Russians can be bullied into accepting Israeli 'moral" dominance in the Middle East.  pl 

https://southfront.org/israeli-troops-enter-militant-held-area-of-beer-ajam-in-golan-heights-reports/

3 Parties; Democrats, GOP and Trump

SWMBO has said for some time that the present two parties should be replaced with quite a few more political players so that they would need to reach coalition compromise solutions.  She also sees the need for action to prevent the formation of gerrymandered House districts.  I can't argue with any of that.

IMO yesterday's Trump/Dems agreement represents a beginning for a radically different poltical paradigm in Washington.

The Republicans are moaning today about a loss of leverage in arguing with the Democrats. Yes, they did lose leverage.  But, it was leverage that they had proven themselves incapable of converting into any sort of legislative action as they have been mired in internal factional politics and blocked from solutions by the purists who are determined not to give the liberals and centrists in either parties anything at all.

Trump has an agenda.  I need not list the items.  The Congressional Republicans are a failure in moving that agenda. 

As has often been stated, Trump is really a New York City business liberal.  IMO he is not comfortable with the real ideological hard-asses from places like Texas and Arizona.

People on Foxnews are now moaning about what will happen in December.  SHREAK!  A mouse!  The Democrats will demand concessions and compromise!  Oh Those awful "C" words.

Well, pilgrims, what will happen is that Trump will make compromises to get Democrat votes.  That will terrify the Republicans because they will then face the prospect of answering to their constituents after having lost the initiative to their Democrat opponents' party in satisfying voter needs.  My guess is that a lot of them will abandon the GOP leadership and vote with Trump.

If this is the art of the deal, I consider it to be a meisterstuck.  pl

Don’t even think about it - TTG

Earlier this evening, Colonel Lang asked me a fairly simple question. “What would you say is the actual deployment ground force capability?”

Just from the top of my head, I gave the following response. “Since we're already committed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, I doubt we can muster any sizable package for Korea. Maybe a few light brigades, but a heavy force would be damned difficult. And a heavy force is what's needed. I'm sure the 25th Infantry would be sent there first as was always the plan. I hope they bring plenty of shovels. They'll need them.”

I was in the 25th Infantry Division in the late ‘70s. Reinforcing Korea was our number one mission. To prepare we practiced strongpoint defense, withdrawal under pressure and breakout from encirclement. We carried more than our normal compliment of picks and shovels as we knew the holes we dug would save our lives. That’s what we anticipated… a forlorn hope. 

A quick Google search confirmed my pessimism. The 2nd Infantry Division only has one armored brigade in country along with two MLRS battalions. The division’s two Stryker brigades are stationed at Fort Lewis. So just getting the 2nd to fighting strength requires the deployment of these two brigades across the Pacific along with their Strykers.

But the question of how fast we can move ground forces into Korea is moot. Take a good look at this chart. A ground war in Korea would be a war among Koreans. The ROK Army has over 600,000 active duty troops, around 5,000 tanks and AFVs and close to 8,000 pieces of towed artillery, self-propelled artillery and MLRS. Our troops would never amount to more than a drop in the bucket. No, don’t even think about that option.

TTG

"The Art of the Deal?" revisited on 6 September 2017

 

I posted this just after DJT became president.  In light of today's DJT agreement with the Democrats over McConnell and Ryans' heads it seems of continued relevance.  pl

**************

"First, the President-elect must make a stab at uniting the country, after a scorched-earth campaign in which he consciously tore at the nation's gender, racial and economic fault lines to build a movement to win power. He's practicing some unusual humility.

 

"I pledge to every citizen of our lands that I will be the president for the American people," Trump said in his victory speech Tuesday. "For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, for which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so we can work together and unify our great country."

 

But his challenges were on clear display Wednesday as protests broke out from Boston to Los Angeles."

 

-------------

 

The crazies with their foreheads painted "not my president" don't bother me.  They can march around the big cities all they want.  Rain will come.  Snow and wind will come and they will go home.  The progressive cause has taken a mighty hit but it will re-assert itself.

There are two real question facing the US as to what sort of president will Trump be.

1.   Thus far he looks to me to be a man who will play a dominan role deciding major issues himself and will make deals with whomever has the power to entable him to reach his goals.

IMO that means that the Republicans in Congress will either go along with Trump's legislative proposals or see Trump go across the aisle to seek votes.

A good example would be whatever it is that Trump decides that he  wants to do about the obvious failure that is the ACA, presently sinking under the weight of far higher costs than expected and smaller enrollments.   Democrats understand that the law must be modified for it to survive and to preserve the increase in health care coverage that it has brought.  The hardline Republicans in both Houses of Congress want to destroy Obamacare and they have no realistic alternative other than the usual blather about private health accounts.   Trump will not want to alienate his working class followers.  Why would Trump not make a deal with the Democrats to get what he wants and needs?

2.   There is also a danger that the neocon faction among Trump's advisers will succeed in achieving power in his cabinet.  The appointment of John Bolton to State, would be ,IMO, an unmitigated disaster.  pl 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/donald-trump-barack-obama-transition/index.html

Posted at 10:05 AM in Politics | Permalink | Comments (118)

I posted this just after DJT became president.  In light of today's DJT agreement with the Democrats over McConnell and Ryans' heads it seems of continued relevance.  pl

**************

"First, the President-elect must make a stab at uniting the country, after a scorched-earth campaign in which he consciously tore at the nation's gender, racial and economic fault lines to build a movement to win power. He's practicing some unusual humility.

 

"I pledge to every citizen of our lands that I will be the president for the American people," Trump said in his victory speech Tuesday. "For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, for which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so we can work together and unify our great country."

 

But his challenges were on clear display Wednesday as protests broke out from Boston to Los Angeles."

 

-------------

 

The crazies with their foreheads painted "not my president" don't bother me.  They can march around the big cities all they want.  Rain will come.  Snow and wind will come and they will go home.  The progressive cause has taken a mighty hit but it will re-assert itself.

There are two real question facing the US as to what sort of president will Trump be.

1.   Thus far he looks to me to be a man who will play a dominan role deciding major issues himself and will make deals with whomever has the power to entable him to reach his goals.

IMO that means that the Republicans in Congress will either go along with Trump's legislative proposals or see Trump go across the aisle to seek votes.

A good example would be whatever it is that Trump decides that he  wants to do about the obvious failure that is the ACA, presently sinking under the weight of far higher costs than expected and smaller enrollments.   Democrats understand that the law must be modified for it to survive and to preserve the increase in health care coverage that it has brought.  The hardline Republicans in both Houses of Congress want to destroy Obamacare and they have no realistic alternative other than the usual blather about private health accounts.   Trump will not want to alienate his working class followers.  Why would Trump not make a deal with the Democrats to get what he wants and needs?

2.   There is also a danger that the neocon faction among Trump's advisers will succeed in achieving power in his cabinet.  The appointment of John Bolton to State, would be ,IMO, an unmitigated disaster.  pl 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/donald-trump-barack-obama-transition/index.html

I posted this just after DJT became president.  In light of today's DJT agreement with the Democrats over McConnell and Ryans' heads it seems of continued relevance.  pl

**************

"First, the President-elect must make a stab at uniting the country, after a scorched-earth campaign in which he consciously tore at the nation's gender, racial and economic fault lines to build a movement to win power. He's practicing some unusual humility.

 

"I pledge to every citizen of our lands that I will be the president for the American people," Trump said in his victory speech Tuesday. "For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, for which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so we can work together and unify our great country."

 

But his challenges were on clear display Wednesday as protests broke out from Boston to Los Angeles."

 

-------------

 

The crazies with their foreheads painted "not my president" don't bother me.  They can march around the big cities all they want.  Rain will come.  Snow and wind will come and they will go home.  The progressive cause has taken a mighty hit but it will re-assert itself.

There are two real question facing the US as to what sort of president will Trump be.

1.   Thus far he looks to me to be a man who will play a dominan role deciding major issues himself and will make deals with whomever has the power to entable him to reach his goals.

IMO that means that the Republicans in Congress will either go along with Trump's legislative proposals or see Trump go across the aisle to seek votes.

A good example would be whatever it is that Trump decides that he  wants to do about the obvious failure that is the ACA, presently sinking under the weight of far higher costs than expected and smaller enrollments.   Democrats understand that the law must be modified for it to survive and to preserve the increase in health care coverage that it has brought.  The hardline Republicans in both Houses of Congress want to destroy Obamacare and they have no realistic alternative other than the usual blather about private health accounts.   Trump will not want to alienate his working class followers.  Why would Trump not make a deal with the Democrats to get what he wants and needs?

2.   There is also a danger that the neocon faction among Trump's advisers will succeed in achieving power in his cabinet.  The appointment of John Bolton to State, would be ,IMO, an unmitigated disaster.  pl 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/donald-trump-barack-obama-transition/index.html

When Russia does this it is condemned ...

"Israel must prepare its American ally sooner rather than later to know that Israel may not be able to sit idly by while Iran’s uses its new base to transfer more and more powerful weaponry to Hezbollah.

Serious questions need to be asked and debated in Jerusalem and Washington.

• How will Jordan and the more moderate Sunni States be affected by the permanent Iranian presence in Syria? • How will Israeli actions affect US-Israeli relations? • To what extent will Russia actively participate beyond coordinating with Syria and Iran? • Would a third recertification of the JCPOA in October increase Iranian adventurism in Lebanon and Syria? The Iranian hegemonic expansion is not a new phenomenon, but a long and wellplanned one, as it tries to reproduce the glory days of the ancient Persian empires. Today’s territorial gains in Syria should be considered phase two, with phase one beginning 30 years ago when Iran sponsored Hezbollah.

Phase two began during the 2011 “Arab Winter” with US president Barack Obama’s withdrawal from the region creating the opportunity for Iran to move into both Syria and Iraq.

In the past few years, Hezbollah has grown from a formidable terrorist entity to effectively controlling all of the Lebanese government with terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East and South America, all under Iranian control.

What we do know is that Iran and Hezbollah’s permanent presence in Syria is dangerous for Israel, America and the West.

It is not too late for American diplomatic leadership to balance interests and turn down the heat, but that would mean America challenging Russian authority to make the rules in Syria and renegotiating the deal in Amman.

If the administration fails to act, Congress should take the lead, speaking clearly to the American people about how Iran’s newfound dominance in the region undermines American national security interests.

Expect the EU to be completely unhelpful, as it is blinded by the economic benefits of the JCPOA. It will bend over backwards to be on the side of Iran.

Which brings us back to Israel. It has already sent high-level security and intelligence teams to speak to the Trump administration warning it about the evolving danger in Syria.

An American commitment to back up Israel if Iran does not decrease its presence in Syria would actually decrease the chance for conflict, as knowing the red lines might make Iran think twice before challenging Israel or expanding further into the Golan.

The Trump Middle East Israeli-Palestinian peace team should also refocus their efforts away from the improbable quest for conflict resolution and get their head into the real game in the Middle East, Iranian control of Syria, one that could set the region on fire."  Jpost - Mandel

--------------

You seldom see the hasbara mission of controlling the narrative in the US stated as clearly as this.  pl

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Why-Israel-needs-to-prepare-America-for-the-upcoming-conflict-in-Syria-504323

http://www.jpost.com/Author/ERIC-R-MANDEL

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20170906

 

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. "A New Report Raises Big Questions About Last Year’s DNC Hack" finally got the VIPS analysis into the mainstream. (Briefly: Guccifer 2.0 documents were locally downloaded and doctored to give a Russian flavour). Has this killed the story? Maybe: the MSM has been shrieking about other things since. (And the interminable US investigations inch closer to the truth.) Normal hysteria returns: "Putin’s Hand Can Clearly Be Seen In the Chaos of a Destabilized West". Amazing how powerful these people think he is, isn't it? Nothing is beyond his reach (except Kiev and Vilnius.)

DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY. A complete violation of the Vienna Convention: "Article 22. The premises of a diplomatic mission... are inviolable... The host country must never search the premises...". Washington has set a precedent that will come back to bite it: what's to stop any country that thinks it's on Washington's target list from doing the same? Incredible. Who's in charge?

BRIDGE. The Kerch Strait bridge rolls along. Here's the railway arch being moved into position and the first ship passing under it. Here's an amusingly one-sided account of things from the Daily Signal.

ZAPAD 2017. NATO is giving itself a major case of the fantods over this exercise "close to its borders". The website so you can follow yourself: 14-20 September in Russia and Belarus, 13K troops, 70 aircraft, 250 tanks, 200 guns and 10 warships. "Anti-terrorist" of course – aren't they all these days? – "The exercise stipulates that some extremist groups have penetrated... ". They have them every four years.

QUAGMIRES. Shortly after Moscow began its intervention in Syria, Obama opined "An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work". Well, yesterday Damascus broke the seige of Deir ez-Zor which probably marks the beginning of the mopping up phase. In short it's not a quagmire and it did work. The US involvement in Afghanistan, on the other hand, is about to enter year 17, getting on for twice as long as the Soviets were there. That is a quagmire and that hasn't worked; the Pentagon isn't even sure how many soldiers it has there: 8.4K, 11K or more? Russia has had three military actions this century – Chechnya II, Ossetia and Syria – all victories; all US military interventions have been failures. What's the difference? I would suggest that Russia initiates military violence with a clear plan 1) to do only what violence can do 2) that is integrated with a diplomatic and civil program for the things it can't and 3) coordinated with reliable allies on the ground. When it has done what it set out to do, it stops. Washington, on the other hand, 1) expands its aims after the initial success far past those that violence can achieve 2) has a negligible diplomatic effort and 3) its allies on the ground turn out to be phantasms of the Washington echo chamber. Added to which, I do not believe that the US military is nearly as competent as its cheerleaders think it is; I suspect it resembles the post-Vietnam mess I saw on exercises in Germany in the 1980s. Maybe even "hardwired for failure".

ISRAEL. Jerusalem seems to have understood its defeat sooner than Washington. Iran has a much stronger presence in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq thanks to two decades of calamitous interventions. It is argued here and here that a nervous Netanyahu received a dusty answer from Putin in Sochi: Iran is Russia's "strategic ally in the Middle East".

BRICS. The summit communiqué is rather blah except for 10 and 11 which deal with finance and currencies. There's a story that China "is preparing to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan and convertible into gold". This would be a strong blow to the power of the US dollar and, by extension, of Washington itself. When Kennan warned against the "superficial and ill informed" decision to expand NATO I don't think he foresaw all the downstream consequences. Beijing, famous for long-term thinking, took a warning from it too. Newton's Third Law of geopolitics.

OOPS! It will be at least 2024 before the US can replace the Russian rocket motors. Carefully excluded from Congress' sanctions bill of course.

KOREA. Has there been much mention in your local news outlet of the US-South Korea exercises of 21-31 August which, they say, sometimes include practising “decapitation strikes”? (The media often leaves out important synchronicities.) I've heard that North and South will meet in St Petersburg. We shall see; there is a solution to the problem: what Beijing calls "double suspension". And it probably doesn't require Washington: Seoul could agree to stop the exercises and tell some of the 35K+ US troops to leave. Putin has strongly condemned Pyongyang's tests: "a flagrant violation".

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

MAYDAY KOREA! by William R. Polk (Part 2)

America on the Brink of Nuclear War (Part 2): What should we do?

            In the first part of this essay, I gave my interpretation of the background of the current confrontation in Korea.  I argued that, while the past is the mother of the present, it has several fathers.  What I remember is not necessarily what you remember; so, in this sense, the present also shapes or reshapes the past.  In my experience as a policy planner, I found that only by taking note of the perception of events as they are differently held by the participants could one understand or deal with present actions and ideas.   I have tried to sketch out views of the past as we, the North Koreans and the South Koreans, differently view them in Part 1 of this essay. 

Now I want to undertake a refinement of the record I have laid out.  I want first to show how our perception, the interpretation we place on the events that swirl past us, adds a new and formative element to them.  Whether consciously or not, we tend to put events into a pattern.   So the pattern itself becomes part of the problem we face in trying to understand events. Staking out a path – an interpretation or a theory of what random bits and pieces mean or how they will be interpreted and acted upon by others -- is a complex and contentious task.  Getting it wrong can lead us astray or even be very dangerous.  So the interpreter, the strategist, must always be tested to see if his interpretation makes sense and the path he lays out is the one we want to travel. I will make this explicit below.  My experience in what was certainly the most dangerous situation America ever experienced, the Cuban Missile Crisis, led me to believe that at least in a crisis how we think about events and what we remember of the past often determines our actions and may be the deciding difference between life and death.  So here I will begin with the mindset that underlay American policy for the last half century. 

*          *          *

            Anyone who reads the press or watches TV is beset with countless scraps of information.  In my experience in government service, the deluge of information was almost paralyzing.  Some of my colleagues joked that the way to defeat our adversaries was to give them access to what passed over our desks every day.  It would immobilize them as it sometimes immobilized us.  How to separate from the flow the merely interesting from the important and how to relate one event to others were demanding tasks.  Making them useful has been undertaken by strategists time after time over the last several thousand years.  Machiavelli is the best known among us, but he was far from the first.[1]

            The latest and arguably the most persuasive recent attempt to develop a sort of framework or matrix to bring some sense of order and some ability to understand events has been the theory of deterrence. While “just a theory,” it set American policy toward the Soviet Union in the Cold War. It  was developed to understand and deal with the Soviet Union in the Cold War, but it will determine much of what America tries to do with North Korea today.

To simplify and summarize, Cold War strategists led by such men as Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling  and Bernard Brodie believed that ultimately relationships among nations were mathematical.  Deterrence thus meant gathering the elements that could be added up by both sides. If country “A” had overwhelming power, country “B” would be deterred in its own interest from actions that were detrimental to them. Failure to “do the sums” correctly in the “game of nations” was to “misplay.”  Emotion and even politics had no role; in the real world.  It was realpolitik that governed.  Put another way, the weak would add up their capabilities and would necessarily give way to the strong to avoid being destroyed.  The great Greek historian Thucydides long ago set the tone: “Right, as the world goes,” he wrote, “is only in question between equals in power;  the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”   Only by acting in this mindset would the national interests, the real interests, of each country be preserved and peace among nations be achieved.

Jubilo! The Siege is lifted - TTG

It's done. Elements of the 17th Reserve Division and the Tiger Force entered the 137th Brigade Base to be greeted by Issam Zahreddine himself. The linkup was effected in the early afternoon today after clearing a path through the minefields. The next order of business is to linkup with Zahreddine's men at the airport. The Tiger Force immediately moved its heavy artillery and MLRS close to this area to begin pounding the fortified IS positions in the Thardeh Mountains overlooking the airport. These positions were also targeted by Kalibr cruise missiles from the Admiral Essen.

Full coverage of the days events are at the Al Masdar News website including a few video clips of some very happy SAA troopers.

A few days ago I watched a video of the Tiger Forces approaching Deir Ezzor. To my surprise I saw a tricked out '73 Camino used as a technical. Son of a bitch, that's a sweet set of wheels. I hope that baby is fitted with some mean hydraulics and used as a command vehicle by al Hassan or Zahreddine. It, at least, must appear in the eventual victory parade in Damascus.

TTG 

Israel vs Russia and Hizbullah

 

" ... According to the newspaper, Russia threatened to veto US and Israeli moves against Hezbollah as the UNSC weighed extending and expanding a mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

The Russian side allegedly pushed to remove “the direct reference to Hezbollah as conducting prohibited military activity in southern Lebanon that is in violation of Resolution 1701.”

As a result the UNSC unanimously voted to renew Resolution 1701 last week but only after the US and Israel had agreed to remove paragraphs that were critical of Hezbollah.

The US-Israeli attempt to use the resolution to put an additional pressure on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon failed.

Haaretz linked this with the Russian involvement in the ongoing Syrian conflict where Moscow sided with the Assad government, Tehran and Hezbollah in a battle against ISIS and al-Qaeda.

The UNIFIL patrols Lebanon’s southern border with Israel where Hezbollah has a strong presence. The US and Israel describe Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the resolution and blamed Hezbollah for alleged arms trafficking in southern Lebanon. "  SF & Haaretz

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 If you consider this in conjunction with a report a few days ago (link below) that stated a US willingness to see HB and other Iranian sponsored militias as close as 8 km from the Israeli defense lines on the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, then the stage is set for a Russian - Israeli air/ air defense engagement.

Bibi evidently made a bad impression on Putin at Sochi last week.

Those who are familiar with HB behavior and the movement's overall strategic position vis a vis Israel will think it likely tat HB with Iranian assistance will begin to dig in and fortify these new positions in the same way that it fortified its Tabbouleh Line positions north of the Israeli-Lebanese border both before and after the 2006 war.

North of the Tabbouleh Line in Lebanon are somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 artillery rocket and guided missile weapons that could be fired into Israel at ranges as far down south as Tel Aviv.  These  are in shelters protected by various kinds of air defense weapons that would exact their pound of flesh from attacking Israeli aircraft.  Whatever the Israelis do the majority of weapons could be fired into Israel before they could be destroyed.

As I have often written, the Israelis are unable to face the losses that would be taken in breaching the Lebanese Border defenses frontally and have harbored the concept of attacking across the Golan into Syria NW with a left turn into Lebanon to take the Lebanese HB positions in reverse.  This was never a very good plan since the approach of Israeli forces from Syria would likely cause a salvo of weapons into civilian Israel.

Fortified HB positions east of the Golan would further degrade this operational possibility.  Will Israel accept that?  pl 

https://southfront.org/israeli-media-accuses-russia-of-providing-diplomatic-support-to-hezbollah-in-un-security-council/

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/09/httpswwwalmasdarnewscomarticleus-will-allow-iranian-forces-syria-operate-within-8-km-israel.html

The So-called Russian Hack of the DNC Does Not Make Sense by Publius Tacitus

Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that Russia hacked into the DNC computers, downloaded emails and a passed the stolen missives to Julian Assange's crew at Wikileaks, a careful examination of the timeline of events from 2016 shows that this story is simply not plausible.

Let me take you through the known facts:

1. 29 April 2016, when the DNC became aware its servers had been penetrated (https://medium.com/homefront-rising/dumbstruck-how-crowdstrike-conned-america-on-the-hack-of-the-dnc-ecfa522ff44f). Note. They apparently did not know who was doing  it.

 

2, 6 May 2016 when CrowdStrike first detected what it assessed to be a Russian presence inside the DNC server. Follow me here. One week after realizing there had been a penetration, the DNC learns, courtesy of the computer security firm it hired, that the Russians are doing it. Okay. Does CrowdStrike shut down the penetration. Nope. The hacking apparently continues unabated.

 

3. 25 May 2016. The messages published on Wikileaks from the DNC show that 26 May 2016 was the last date that emails were sent and received at the DNC. There are no emails in the public domain after that date. In other words, if the DNC emails were taken via a hacking operation, we can conclude from the fact that the last messages posted to Wikileaks show a date time group of 25 May 2016. Wikileaks has not reported nor posted any emails from the DNC after the 25th of May. I think it is reasonable to assume that was the day the dirty deed was done.

 

4. 12 June 2016, CrowdStrike purged the DNC server of all malware. Are you kidding me? 45 days after the DNC discovers that its serve has been penetrated the decision to purge the DNC server is finally made. What in the hell were they waiting for? But this also tells us that 18 days after the last email "taken" from the DNC, no additional emails were taken by this nasty malware. 

Here is what does not make sense to me. If the DNC emails were truly hacked and the malware was still in place on 11 June 2016 (it was not purged until the 12th) then why are there no emails from the DNC after 26 May 2016?

 

US and SDF will advance into Deir al-Zor together.

 

"The US will provide an air support to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the expected advance against ISIS in the province of Deir Ezzor, Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend, the commander of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq and Syria told reporters via a video teleconference from Baghdad.

The US general said that the final battle against ISIS will take place in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, which includes the oil-rich countryside of the Syrian city of Deir Ezzor.

A large part of the Deir Ezzor city is besiged by ISIS terrorists and now the Syrian Army and its allies are working to lift the siege.

Townsend  said that the US thinks the SDF would be a suitable force for the battle against ISIS there. In other words, Washington and US-backed forces clearly aim to seize oil fields in the Deir Ezzor countryside."  pl

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This makes the claims of intended US appropriation of Syrian territory quite plausible.  pl  

https://southfront.org/us-vows-provide-air-support-kurdish-led-forces-advancing-deir-ezzor/

"UK Withdraws All Troops Training Syrian Militants ..." SF & The Telegraph

 

"The UK has quietly halted its efforts to train the so-called Syrian moderate opposition within a network of camps established in Turkey, Jordan and Syria, the Telegraph reported.

One of the camps where UK special forces were training the “opposition” was the at-Tanf garrison controlled by the US-led coalition in southeastern Syria.

According to the Telegraph, the UK Defense Ministry has confirmed the last 20 UK soldiers involved in the program returned home.

The UK troops were involved in the Pentagon’s $500m program aimed at training and equipping 5,000 “moderate opposition” fighters. However, the effort clearly failed."  SF

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There remains a lot of hard fighting in the east of Syria and in Idlib Province, it would appear that the UK thinks the Syria War is coming to an end.  pl  

https://southfront.org/uk-withdraws-all-troops-training-syrian-militants-in-turkey-jordan-and-syria/

How We Die By Richard Sale

 Triviality

 

Today, we learn in snatches or in brief bites. We don’t settle down to learn comprehensively.  We can’t concentrate. Our life is one of incessant interruptions. If I look up a news article on the Web, swarms of ads descend to interrupt, and we spend precious time trying to delete them and move on as even as more continue to appear.  The volume of ads are so asphyxiating these days that it isn’t worth the effort to get rid of them, and so I turn them off., annoyed and exasperated.

The chief point is that we cannot sit and think and read or reflect in peace any more. Everything calls to us, tempts us, distracts us, befuddles and annoys us. Our brains are not what they once were, not because of age, but because our culture works differently on them and hinders their further development.

News items are intruders. Their origin is external to our thought. If outside events are always being dumped on our brains, it is hard to take the time to grade them in terms of our general knowledge. We do we really know?  It takes a lot of reflection to answer that.  Only by looking at our own knowledge from all sides, do we get a grasp of the insights that come from experience rather than the knowledge that come from foreign impressions. Schopenhauer once said that real thinking means “comparing truth with truth.”  To me that means deciding which truth had more meaning and priority in my own mental life?

The ability to focus on a subject for a long time without fatigue was one of Napoleon’s mottos.  Who today can do that?  What benefit to we get from blotting out distractions and learning to reason carefully for a long time without getting tired? It becomes harder for us to do everyday.  Topics flock to our brains. The Middle East, President Trump, North Korea. 

Are these things really interesting? If we buckle down and concentrate on them, what will be the reward?  To me, the rewards are always meager. There is a lot of competition when it comes to current affairs. If we fall behind, we suffer a pang of regret – some neighbor knows more about current affairs than I do.   But so what? I want to ponder things that are unique to my own temper and mental capacity. I don’t want to become a replica of my neighbor. There are few worse fates than that. I want to ponder things that are appropriate to my nature and experience. I want to encourage thoughts that have truth and life in them that occur naturally, not from without.

I do not understand why so many people strive so hard to be up to date.  They are always in a race to try and announce headlines before their neighbors.  They rarely study or master the stories the headlines advertize. They evade the labor of memorizing. All they can recapitulate are the headlines. If you ask about the stories, they hesitate then falter out, “I only saw the headlines.”  I am sometimes eager to have them summarize what they’ve read, but there is no there, there as Gertrude Stein said about Oakland, CA.

Let’s face it. Today we are all the junkies of daily news.  “The Daily Fix” phrase is perhaps the most appropriate. It is really shameful if you think about it, but no one does, or if you protest about the meaningless deluge of daily news, you are labeled over-sensitive or nit-picking. Most of us awake to news headlines. There is a hurricane, an accident that kills sailors, a helicopter crashes, a new threat of annihilation from an Asian punk regime. But do we learn anything from these? We are like those toy birds that dip their beaks into a dish of water. They look as if they’re drinking, but they don’t. They are not built to absorb anything.  Their dipping looks like activity, but it is all counterfeit. Unfortunately the breathless topics of today are not of permanent interest nor do they enrich the mind.  They are transitory, destined not to last. They keep us floating on the surface of life, preventing us from diving deep and discovering something new and valuable and priceless.

We see lists of notable books on the Civil War, the downfall of the Soviet Union, the Fall of the Bastille.  We see new books on the French Revolution or the fall of Paris in 1870. We see histories of the Balkans or the Ottoman Empire. We see books about the nature of power, religious or corporate or military. Do we read them, study them?

As we get older, our minds get more introspective. We want to seize the enduring truths that reside in our nature or our close friends. Such things sharpen the mind; help expand the range of our inner insight.

Lifting the Siege of Deir Ezzor - TTG

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:10 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is on the verge of lifting the siege on the Deir Ezzor Governorate, a military source told Al-Masdar News tonight.

According to the military source, the Syrian Arab Army’s Tiger Forces are approximately 5km away from the 137th Artillery Brigade Base and pushing eastward at a rapid pace.

Civilians have already begun celebrating in the streets of Deir Ezzor, as news about the lifting of the siege was prematurely spread on social media."  (Al Masdar News)

************************

The rumors have been flying all afternoon and evening. A few hours ago Fares Shehabi, member of the Syrian parliament for Aleppo and chairman of the Syrian Federation of Industry tweeted “In few hours, these two Syrian generals will meet. Once they meet, ISIS siege of Deir Ezzor is over along with thousands of terrorists.” The follow photos accompanied the tweet.

So far my favorite meme is a nineteen second clip from the Battle of Helms Deep showing Suheil al Hassan as Gandalf leading the horsemen of Rohirrim. Issam Zahreddine’s likeness was overlayed on Aragorn defending the Hornburg from the hordes of Uruk-hai. A rousing Syrian tune (God, Syria and Bashar) is heard as the siege is lifted. In a few days actual pictures of these two generals meeting will be broadcasted throughout the world. All of Syria and many others will be celebrating wildly in the streets.   

As I said rumors are legion. Here’s a sample from the twittersphere. Enjoy. All will become clear within the next 24 to 48 hours.

Syrian Generation‏ @SARReport

“Genius move by Syrian Army and allies lured ISIS to defend wrong area of Maadan to AlSubkha, SAA now when reach Deir Ezzor can besiege them.” 

“Celebrations are still ongoing despite heavy ISIS mortar/missiles attacks” 

NDF‏ @NatDefFor 

“Sleeper cells and civilians reportedly attacking ISIS HQs in villages of Nabila, Hureyki and Makhac Deir ez Zor”

“Clashes are ongoing outskirts of the 137th Base while sleeper cells trying to make a riot/uprising inside the city (ISIS-held areas)”

The'Nimr'Tiger

“Small SAA unit from outside the pocket helped knock out major ISIS defenses in Brigade 137 which allowed army inside to retake all positions”

“SAA soldier in Deir Ezzor says that same special unit who attacked Brigade 137 from rear entered Brigade 137 but the siege is not broken yet”

“Unconfirmed reports about aerial landings by helicopters on points around Deir Ezzor: Clear info not available as battle still ongoing.”

“Reports: Clashes started all around Deir Ezzor city in what seems to be an ISIS full attack while news about Panorama Roundabout took by SAA”

“ISIS supply lines (towards city) have been cut by SAA”

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-siege-deir-ezzor-nearly-lifted-syrian-army-troops/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-saa-makes-advances-deir-ezzor-video/

Space stuff.

 

"Falcon Heavy ultimately amounts to three Falcon 9 rockets linked together (one of which is strengthened), but it should be crucial to SpaceX's future business. Right now, a solo Falcon 9 can't carry more than 50,000lbs on a one-way trip to low Earth orbit. The Heavy system, however, will haul 140,700lbs into that same orbit, and should be powerful enough to participate in voyages to the Moon and Mars. The sooner the company can get Falcon Heavy into service, the sooner it can handle challenging missions that are barely on its radar."  engadget

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Space X goes from strength to strength.  I don't own stock in the company but I wish I did.  A workhorse booster for transport of heavy loads into orbit for development of lunar or asteroid mining is an obvious path to economic justification of space commercial activity.  This booster is a big step in that direction.  pl

https://www.engadget.com/2017/09/02/spacex-finishes-falcon-heavy-first-stage-core-testing/

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"Stephen Hawking’s Breakthrough Listen project has detected mysterious signals that could be coming from intelligent alien life.

Astronomers working to identify alien civilizations picked up 15 repeated fast radio bursts (FRBs) from a dwarf galaxy 3 billion light years away from Earth.

It’s unclear if the signals, observed over a 30-minute period, emanate from black holes, rotating neutron stars, or if they represent signs of alien life.

Hawking founded the Breakthrough Listen project to investigate — and identify — signs of intelligent life in the universe. Russian internet billionaire Yuri Milner is also behind the initiative.

The 15 signals came from FRB 121102. Astronomers had previously detected radio pulses coming from the same source."

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 SETI has been looking for this for many years.  Can it be that this private project of Hawking and a Russian billionaire might succeed where SETI has not succeeded?  pl 

 http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/astronomers-detect-signs-alien-life-article-1.3464088

It seems that a military solution in Syria was possible after all...

 

"“Bashar Assad’s government has won the war militarily,” said Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Damascus who witnessed the uprising’s earliest days. “And I can’t see any prospect of the Syrian opposition being able to compel him to make dramatic concessions in a peace negotiation.”

The government has yet to fully secure areas around the capital, and fighting continues in various pockets of Syria’s east as well as the northwestern province of Idlib. Yet even Assad’s staunchest international adversaries see the continuation of his rule as a fait accompli and have urged the rebels arrayed against him to do the same.

“The nations who supported us the most … they’re all shifting their position,” said Osama Abu Zaid, an opposition spokesman contacted by phone. “We’re being pressured from all sides to draw up a more realistic vision, to accept Assad staying.”

The key to the Syrian leader’s survival has been his battlefield allies Moscow and Tehran; both have been laser-focused on keeping him in power.

Russia dispatched warplanes and elite Spetsnaz units in 2015 to stop the opposition’s advance, just as a coalition of hard-line Islamist rebels were on the cusp of overrunning key government bastions. Iran poured in materiel as well as manpower, including proxies from as far afield as Afghanistan, to bolster Assad’s exhausted troops."  LA Times

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Yes, my title is sarcastic and aimed at all those who moaned for years that "war settles nothing," and  "no military solution is possible."  "War settles nothing?"  Those who thought that should have learned a little history before spewing stupidities.  The Japanese and Germans could have given them instruction on that as could the very existence of the US which was in battle born.  It is particularly sweet to have  Robert Ford, a former US ambassador under Obama who IMO did much to enable the unrest that led to this awful war.

There was a "moment" just before the Russian intervention began when it seemed likely that the jihadis of both AQ and IS as well as their "secular" allies would manage to drive the multi-confessional Syrian government into a negotiated surrender.  That grim possibility ended with an incredible effective intervention by Russia, Iran and Hizbullah.

Will Assad take advantage of the opportunity for building a better Syria both physically and in governance?  One can hope.  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-assad-2017-story.html

"US will allow Iranian forces in Syria to operate within 8 km of Israel" by Andrew Illingworth

 

"The United States will allow Iranian military elements and Iranian-backed militias operating in Syria to take up positions within eight kilometers of Israel’s Golan border region according to a report released yesterday by the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat news agency.

The report stated that an agreement to allow both actual Iranian forces and Iranian proxies in Syria to establish bases as close as eight kilometers to both the Jordanian and Israeli borders was recently reached between US and Russian diplomats following talks in Jordan.

This report comes at a time when Russia has official downplayed Israeli hysteria over the presence of Iranian forces in Syria, refusing to entertain Netanyahu’s claims that Iran is preparing to attack Israel."  Andrew Illingworth in Al Sharq al Awsat

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Well, well, pilgrims.  ASAA has always had deep Saudi royal family ties so one must question the motive for this publication of work by Mr. Illingworth, whoever he may be.  Is this Saudi spite at evidence of subterranean Trump Administration cooperation with Russia over both Iran and Syria?

Bibi must be eating his own guts at the thought.  All that and Sarah up to her hips in corruption investigation, being PM just isn't what it used to be,

 Can it be that the whisperings between the Trumpian foreign policy gaggle and the Rooshians actually had substance.  Can it be?

BTW  The last I heard was that the buses were still out in the desert somewhere near Sukhna having been re-routed.   CENTCOM still can't work out what to do with them. 

And I sure hope that IS keeps throwing troops at the R+6 in SE Raqqa.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-will-allow-iranian-forces-syria-operate-within-8-km-israel/