The Rise of the Violent Muslim Brotherhood (by Mokhtar Awad) posted by The Virginian

 
“The stark discourse of The Jurisprudence of the Popular Resistance to the Coup is the result of an ongoing fundamental reorientation in Egyptian Islamism and specifically the Muslim Brotherhood. It is the consequence of the Muslim Brotherhood witnessing significant and dizzying changes, extreme repression, and both internal and outside pressure to articulate an Islamist methodology that can be relevant to its base.”

“Yet, as explained, not every Brother is completely on board with the new vision laid out by the new guard of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although they may agree with the premises of some of the arguments, they fundamentally disagree on the utility of violence in the current Egyptian context. Others who do so on personal and religious grounds may find some acts of violence allowed, but murder to be strictly prohibited unless in cases such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.”

"Although it is important to highlight that the views expressed in the book, and other radical documents, are not representative of the entire Muslim Brotherhood. It is also important not to dismiss that they are representative of at least one major legitimate faction of the group. This faction, to a considerable extent, is represented in the Muslim Brotherhood’s new guard, which as of December 2016, has claimed total leadership over the organization. The detractors of this wing dismiss these arguments, the book, the Sharia Committee, and deny any relationship to violence. Despite this, violence has nonetheless been committed by actors who appear to be clearly inspired by this Brotherhood faction and it remains to be seen which faction has more supporters inside Egypt."

“Moreover, as the book’s own language shows, the radical arguments made within it are not confined to Egypt. There is today a new generation of Muslim Brothers, both young and old, who see the utility in violence, support it, and even engage in it. The Egyptians among them are scattered outside Egypt in Turkey, Sudan, and beyond. Other Brothers and fellow travelers in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and the Gulf, have also been involved in either supporting or carrying out violence in recent years—even if this takes the form of rebel militias. The risk to Egypt is further radicalization and adoption of violence in the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood that could prove destabilizing if it is not checked by authorities. The risk to the region, and perhaps beyond, is that Salafi-Jihadi groups may no longer be the only Islamists with a monopoly over the use of violence to bring about the sought-after Islamist change.”

https://www.hudson.org/research/13787-the-rise-of-the-violent-muslim-brotherhood

************************

Regardless of any bias by the author, the article raises key questions around how the Ikhwan will evolve in Egypt and elsewhere. The insurgency in the Sinai and challenges the Egyptian military and police are having (plus the role of MB groups in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Tunisia, etc.) underscore the importance of the questions posed by the author.

What impact will the retrenchment of military rule in Egypt supported by Gulf Arab money have on the long term fortunes of the Brotherhood, and how will Ikhwan groups elsewhere look to shape the political (and security) landscape outside of Egypt?  The Virginian

Comments

[DH]

I understand that Hillary's aide, Huma Abedin has very close family ties with MB. That's bold on Hillary's part.

[Thirdeye]

Money talks.

[Willybilly]

Good questions. You have to ask them at Langley & MI6

[Robert C]

If Gohmert and Bachman say so, it must be true.

[different clue]

Robert C,

If Gohmert and Bachman say that rain is made of water, must that be true too?

[Red Cloud]

I think Saudi Arabia is positioning themselves to push the Qataris out wherever they can. I would expect to see the MB lose influence in the long term, while AQ affiliated groups gain influence and perhaps footholds where they previously had none.

[Adrestia]

In my opinion it starts to look like pre-2011 are being recreated. Soaring food prices caused social unrest then because many people were struggling to get food. In 2011 it was because of austerity measures which hit the poorest people the most. The same is happening again. Inflation hurts the poor much harder. Imho economic despair (and especially food and water insecurity) causes more radicalization than religion or other 'higher' ideas such as democracy.

Query for IMF+Egypt and a lot of similar austerity measures are shown. People will go to the streets just as they did in 2011 (or in 1977 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Egyptian_bread_riots)

Non-oil sector continues to weaken

Egypt's foreign currency reserves have at last surpassed levels seen before its 2011 uprising, but importers and analysts say growing dollar liquidity also reflects an uncomfortable reality: consumers battered by austerity are unable to buy.
(...)
Dollar liquidity has been on the upswing since Egypt signed a $12 billion three-year International Monetary Fund loan agreement in November.

The loan deal is tied to economic reforms such as floating its pound currency, a move that halved its value and made exports competitive but which has pushed inflation to over 30 per cent.

Those higher prices and IMF-backed subsidy cuts and tax hikes have hit consumer spending. Egyptian companies, many of which rely heavily on imports that have become more expensive, have found they cannot pass those additional costs on to customers whose purchasing power has been dramatically reduced.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/economy/egypts-rising-dollar-resources-is-bad-news-for-its-consumers

The International Monetary Fund said on Friday it had approved a second loan installment worth $1.25 billion for Egypt.

Egypt agreed to a three-year, $12 billion IMF loan programme in November that is tied to ambitious economic reforms such as subsidy cuts and tax hikes.

"The government and the central bank have taken the right measures to rein in inflation, reduce the budget deficit, and set the Egyptian economy on a path to stability and growth," Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF said in a statement.

Last week, the government increased electricity prices by up to 42 percent this fiscal year for households. A week earlier, it raised fuel prices by up to 50 percent to help meet the terms of its IMF loan agreement.

http://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-economy-imf-idUSL8N1K46KZ

Egypt raises water and sewerage bills as part of IMF reforms
{...}
The Egyptian government has increased the prices of drinking water and sewerage fees up to 50 percent as part of an extensive economic reforms programme aimed at closing the budget deficit.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-raises-water-sewage-bills-part-reform-program-1941776063

[Adrestia]

I finished reading the Reuters article and they seem to be aware of the risks of the food security of the poor. They target the middle class with the austerity measures, who historically provide the leadership of resistance.

http://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-economy-imf-idUSL8N1K46KZ

Sisi last month announced a raft of new spending, including more than doubling monthly food subsidies effective starting July 1, a freeze to taxes on agricultural lands, and an increase of 15 percent in civil servant pensions.

The lion's share of the social spending allocation will be channeled into monthly food subsidies, which will increase to 50 pounds per person from 21 currently, a hike that will cost the state an additional 38 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.12 billion) in the current fiscal year's budget, which began in July.

[Castellio]

Just a brief thank you for both posts. I appreciate the information and the links.