RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 AUGUST 2017 - Patrick Armstrong

THE NEW NWO AND RUSSIA. This is very much worth reading. The authors argue that in the coming (well, already here) rivalry between the American maritime power and the Chinese land power, Russia is the swing player that can hand victory to one or the other: "So logic says that the US should be very nice to Russia and seek to establish some kind of military alliance". Well, logic's voice isn't loud enough for the US Congress to hear. Also interesting is their discussion of Germany's choices and the important role Saudi Arabia could play if it changes protectors again. (I too wondered this two years ago.)

PUTIN'S POPULARITY. Some Western academics asked "But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters?" and concluded "Putin’s approval ratings largely reflect the attitudes of Russian citizens." I didn't bother to read their paper because I know – as does any serious observer – the answer already. Of course he's popular: he is the leader of a team which has achieved a tremendous turnaround in Russia's situation. Since 2000 all indicators are up. I wish we could say the same in our part of the world.

RUSSIA INC. GDP grew 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter; this is the highest growth since 2013. PMI is up to 52.7. Inflation is the lowest in five years.

USSR DEBT. With a payment to Bosnia, Moscow has paid off the last of the debt it inherited from the USSR. When an earlier agreement that the 15 would divide the debt fell apart, Moscow took responsibility for all of it in return for USSR assets abroad. It did this despite the fact that its creditors insisted on repayment while many of its debtors could not pay. The total was about USD80 billion and many debts to it were forgiven. I well remember how glad we all were that it took responsibility for the debts as well as the other leftovers: weaponry outside, nuclear weapons and its guarantee of Russian citizenship to any Soviet citizen who wasn't automatically given citizenship where he lived. It was only later that the last three were rebranded as evidence of imperialistic intentions.

DEMOGRAPHICS. There has been a small net decline in Russia's population this year after several years of growth. We will see if this is a bump or a trend. (Although Karlin, who is much more knowledgeable than I, predicted a return to "normal" rates two and a half years ago.)

AGRICULTURE. The Agriculture Minister estimates the grain harvest will be 110 million tonnes which would leave as much as 40 million for export. So Russia will presumably keep the title of number one.

VISA RETALIATION. My take: I believe Moscow is ready to follow Washington right down to zero representation is that's where it goes. But, if the Russiagate bubble bursts (probably the most severe blow is the exposure of the Guccifer 2.0 fake by VIPS) then the original pretext will burst too and things can get back to normal.

MAKING WATER RUN UP HILL. Lithuania is getting LNG from the USA and Ukraine coal from the USA. More expensive but supposedly for security. Well, whatever: if they want to pay more, let them. Of course in all likelihood they will "pay" with IMF or EU loans. Payback's a problem for later.

CHANGE OR BLIP? The Prime Minister says Riga is interested in better relations with Moscow and a Polish poll shows number who regard Russia as a threat down about 50% in 3 years. After all, despite years of "Europe faces a 'real threat' from Russia" Russia still hasn't conquered anybody. But that just makes some people shout louder: "The growing Russian military threat in Europe".

TRUMP KEEPS AFGHANISTAN GOING. Reinforcing failure. Trump Vows To Leave A Better Afghanistan For Nation’s Grandchildren To Fight In. The generals rolled him, as they rolled Obama. And if it really was short skirts, then there's a lot more to that story than he, or McMaster, probably know. Today the Americans get their supplies in via Pakistan or the Central Asian countries (through Russia). Washington has made threatening noises at Pakistan and Russia. How then?

CHICKENS, HOME, ROOST. Torchlight parades in Kiev, Riga, Tallinn. And now Charlottesville. "Nationalists" there, but "Nazis" here. Some historical background for the Ukraine case; Baltics.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Newsweek discovers a new bottom level. "Charlottesville's Alt-right Leaders Have a Passion for Vladimir Russian Federation President Putin".

UKAINE. More signposts of disaster. Ukrainians now spend 50% of their income on food; not poverty says the Minister of Social Policy fatuously but because they like to eat well. The Economist rates Kiev among the ten least liveable cities. Did Ukraine supply the rocket motors to North Korea? And, I've mentioned this before, but the longest-lasting effect of the Kiev coup may be a nuclear disaster.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Comments

[Poul]

The Lithuanian LNG import is basically a way of putting pressure on Russia to reduce it's gas price. It reduces the overall energy cost for Lithuania.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/lithuania-gazprom-idUKL6N0NU4CM20140508

LNG imports will be limited but at a level where Russia cannot regain a supply monopoly and the pricing power inherent therein.

[todde]

Oceania has always been at war at war with eastasia.

If the book is a crystal ball, then the EU is a player, and I would think Russia would swing the balance between the EU AND China. Britain appears to have left Eurasia and joined Oceania.

We will see I suppose

[Ivan]

Those who slavishly follow the Soviet line on everything have taken to slandering all the Ukranians as some kind Slavic Nazis, making it easier for the Russian propaganda front. Given their location and the fact that from 1917 onwards, they had to contend in a life and death struggle with the Communists, they were bound to take help from the German Nazis distasteful as it is for some. This is due to their geography more than any ideological affinities. (Would the Ukranian struggle be any different had the Kaiser been around in 1935-55). The peculiar brutality of the struggles over Eastern Europe, has as much to do with the climate of fear and death that the Communists spread wherever they gain sway, as with any other factors. Hence the ferocity of the reaction. Those who succumbed to the Communists can tell no tales, but Communism was the curse of the 20th century. Every contradiction in society and state were exploited ruthlessly by them, not with a view to amelioration or making things better for their fellowmen, but in order to advance their so-called class struggle with a ruthlessness, that was bound to create an undying hatred for the Communists in the hearts of those who had to endure it. Communism created hell on earth wherever it went. One did not have to be a Nazi to fight it.

[sid_finster]

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/08/us-approves-175-million-arms-supply.html?m=1

Comment?

[Imagine]

Russia meme now tanking Constitution: Senate Intelligence Committee apparently declares Wikileaks to be a "non-state hostile intelligence service", which I suppose means they are terrorists?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-24/senate-declares-war-assange

Does this mean America gets to shoot them, and other journalists, on sight? Or put them in Guantanamo Bay? Serious question.

[ToivoS]

Before the US can even think of appealing to Russia as a wedge against China would first require that the US build a little trust with the Russians. Given how the US has treated Russia over the last 25 years building trust would take multiple decades. It would require some very concrete actions -- for example pulling NATO troops away from Russia's border, dismantling those antiballistic missile batteries in Poland, Romania, and south Korea to name a few. Maybe just dismantling NATO would do it. Otherwise the Russians would have no reason to trust the US given its extremely unstable internal politics -- How can any country try to negotiate any kind of deal with the US that has more than a four year timeline?

Nope, it won't happen. Russia and China are destined for at least another 50 years to be linked together in some kind of alliance facing a hostile West.

[LeaNder]

Well, logic's voice isn't loud enough for the US Congress to hear. Also interesting is their discussion of Germany's choices and the important role Saudi Arabia could play if it changes protectors again.

Not much chances, but yes this was an interesting demand. And strictly a couple of Social Democrats resisted the recent anti-Russian hype. Although, I doubt they can turn the tide, considering all the usual careerist present, who have worked their ways up into the representative layers. That said, I still have no clue what I will vote.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/martin-schulz-gegen-us-atomwaffen-in-deutschland-15164784.html

via Google translate:

Nuclear Weapons, No thanks.

https://tinyurl.com/nuclear-weapons-thanks

[ISL]

Patrick Armstrong,

Thank you for your summary. I would also add the gradual re-alignment of Turkey from NATO towards Russia.

http://tinyurl.com/y9p8onwm

and of Qatar to Iran.

For a country called a gas can of an economy, O&G is 16% (as opposed to 10% in the US), and Bloomberg in 2016 ranked Russia (12) just three behind the US (9) of the most innovative economies (tossed to #26 in 2017 based on sanctions - which makes no sense - innovation is structural, and just cant change fast).

http://tinyurl.com/zsw9khr

Evidence abounds that the world has changed, but not US strategy/viewpoint.

It truly is mind boggling why the US is pushing Russia closer to China instead of trying to create a wedge.

[Oilman2]

OT - USS McCain/Fitzgerald

Had lunch with 30 yr retired sub guy re these incidents.

During cold war, all subs operated quiet. Navigation was strictly visual through periscope. They became extremely good at this.

After CW ended, radars were installed and surface navigation was done by 4 different radars. In crowded sea lanes, they were hit with "contact clutter", where the 4 radars depicted different aspects and locations for each vessel. Per my sub guy, it took them a good year to learn to navigate with these multiple radars. They put a guy doing visual in conjunction with radars to speed transitioning for them.

My friend suggests the reverse is happening with the USN surface fleet.

The destroyers and surf ships are good with contact clutter, and have even more radars than a sub - all post CW ops. However, since Chinese and Russian navies can determine hull numbers from radar contacts, USN has switched to EMCON (no EM devices) operation on surface. They have zippo experience with getting a bow heading or estimating ship size by the heave of the bow light. He suggests some may even have trouble getting port and starboard correct. In short, they suck at visual navigation, and it truly shows up at night.

Unlike the subs did post CW, they cannot use the 'old way' to supplement the new here - the 'old way' lights them up and announces which ship is where. Thus they are stuck trying to navigate in a way not used since their initial training. Turn the "video game" bridge off, and there you have the problem.

Add in crowded sea lanes, and you get even bigger problems.

Just thought I would share - I use Occam's Razor, and this fits and explains the orders given for fleet ops.

[SmoothieX12]

Comment?

The old story: get Javelins into Donbass and see what happens, that's what this is all about. US Congress' wet dream or as General Scales suggested on Fox "start killing Russians". It will, obviously, escalate the conflict and may see Donbass forces get some really quirky weapons too. But in general--anything to get Russia involved on a larger scale.

[SmoothieX12]

During cold war, all subs operated quiet. Navigation was strictly visual through periscope. They became extremely good at this.

They still operate quiet, even more so than in Cold War, but navigation (in reality correction of dead reckoning done by means of INS) was done both by means of optronic masts ("periscope") which were needed for celestial observations and fixes, plus by 1960s there were plenty of radio-navigation systems ranging from Decca to Loran which allowed corrections. Since early 1970s Satellite Navigation Systems (US--Transit, Soviet--Parus) were also available. Sometimes a "single sweep" radar contact was also allowed, under some conditions.

[Patrick Armstrong]

It's one thing to side with Germany to regain what you lost in the Winter War and then stop, a la Finland; to join in in the murders of Jews, Poles Russians et al is a work of superrogation.
As the Poles are realising https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volhynia_(film)

[SmoothieX12]

Before the US can even think of appealing to Russia as a wedge against China would first require that the US build a little trust with the Russians. Given how the US has treated Russia over the last 25 years

United States doesn't have enough geopolitical "currency" to "buy" Russia anymore. The US neither is willing nor has means anymore to pay such a price. This was lost in 2014. Evidently many do not understand the fact that combined West has committed a cultural suicide in Russia (or rather in Ukraine). This is apart from the fact that US elites (and society in general) are divided in a manner which is unprecedented in modern American history, which precludes US from being a party to any treaty or agreement with Russia.

[Oilman2]

If you were in the sub service, I bow to your life experiences. I was simply relaying what a recently retired sub officer told me was his best guess as to what the issue may be. He was referring more to navigating visually in crowded sea lanes while 'dark'. After CW, they began more routine navigation in crowded waters, using radar.

I am a qualified seaman, but commercial (oilfield) only. We operate 2 radars in crowded areas, along with sonar. The clutter issue I am very familiar with.

[Ivan]

Yes but were the Ukrainians uniquely guilty in this regard? That was unfortunately how matters are settled after a long period of propaganda and internal strife at the end of WWII For example is it from the victims point of view any different from what the Sudeten Germans suffered?

[EEngineer]

get Javelins into Donbass and see what happens

A container load of captured Tow missiles gets "returned" to Chicago?

[Patrick Armstrong]

Guilt and all that stuff is for historians. Nazis -- actual genetic descendants of the real thing, not kids with an 88 tattoo and a replica SS dagger in Mom's basement -- are on the rise there. This has been aided, abetted,encouraged and ignored by the EU, USA and Canada. I am interested that the Poles -- who helped re-light the fire -- are now becoming concerned. Same same in the Baltics.

[burton50]

Andrew, what are the chances that the RF will arrange a combined arms operation along the lines of 08.08.08, not to hold territory, but just to "mow the grass" west of the line of contact?

[SmoothieX12]

If you were in the sub service, I bow to your life experiences

Don't bow to anyone. I knew and still know civilians (both Russian and American) who never served a day in uniform, yet those were and are magnificent people whose friendships I treasure. It is way more complex than "life experiences". As for me--I am Russian and although I spent some time at subs, my main experience was surface ships and then some land "experiences" of which I don't think fondly.

[sid_finster]

If that was "how matters were settled after WWII" then, by that logic, Ukraine deserved everything it got.

And yes, Ukrainians were particularly gleeful participants in Nazi crimes. The Nazis didn't recruit Poles to be flunkies at their death camps.

[Lyttenburgh]

“Those who slavishly follow the Soviet line on everything have taken to slandering all the Ukranians as some kind Slavic Nazis, making it easier for the Russian propaganda front.”

Are you denying the existence of the SS batallion “Galitchina”? Are you denying the collaboration of the “patriotic Ukrainians” with the Nazis? Volhynian massacre didn’t happen?

“Given their location and the fact that from 1917 onwards, they had to contend in a life and death struggle with the Communists”

Userperson “Ivan” – study history. In 1917 onwards, soon after the February revolution, “they” had to contend in a “life and death struggle” against all things Russian.

“[T]hey were bound to take help from the German Nazis distasteful as it is for some”

Nazi apologist. How nice. SUGS!

“The peculiar brutality of the struggles over Eastern Europe, has as much to do with the climate of fear and death that the Communists spread wherever they gain sway”

What, and it had nothing to do that the War in the East was a total war of Extermination, as defined by the 3rd Reich? That Slavs were deemed “sub-human” and the genocide against them was not only planned, but partially carried out without them being communists or not?

Double SUGS!

“Those who succumbed to the Communists can tell no tales, but Communism was the curse of the 20th century.”

Nah, it was it’s blessing. Rabid nationalism – that was a true curse. One particular form of it had been internationally condemned after the War. Or you disagree with it?

“Communism created hell on earth wherever it went.”

Userperson “Ivan” – where are you from? Canada?

Triple SUGS!

[Lyttenburgh]

“Yes but were the Ukrainians uniquely guilty in this regard?”

Remind me, what ethnicity were the vast majority of the (absolutely volunteer, I must add!) prison guards in Nazis death and concentration camps?

SUGS!

[J]

Refining military skills:

Динамический показ возможностей военной техники и авиации на Форуме «Армия-2017»
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ai6BQcvPJPk

[J]

With the 'battle for the high ground' [Bhutan border dispute] now taking place between China and India in their sporadic fighting back and forth, in the event it were to erupt into full blown blows, which side would Moscow side on, or would they sit on the sidelines and watch?

India IMO cannot afford to let China have the 'high ground' [strategic and tactical importance] as it would then become very perilous for India especially considering China's 200 million man army would be able to descend upon India like the locust plagues of Biblical proportions.

[Patrick Armstrong]

Russia likes to have good relations, or at least open lines of contacts, with everybody. We see this in the Middle East where Moscow is continually talking to Riyadh, Jerusalem, Damascus, Tehran etc. The West chooses sides and then finds itself unable to talk when it has to. Moscow is also careful in its speech and does all it can to avoid painting itself into a corner.

If, God forbid, China and India get into a real war, Moscow would attempt to calm things down: talk, diplomacy and so forth. It would not take sides either openly or clandestinely in this case.