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01 August 2017

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mike

TTG -

Your graphic #6 is a doctored copy. The original photo shown on 30 June by Hammurabi Justice twitter account shows that technical next to the US vehicle as being manned by fighters from 'Maghawir al-Thawra'. That group, or many of them, defected to the SAA just within the last few days.

http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/1-august-a-second-group-of-usbacked-maghaweer-althawra-fighters

No way I would believe that US troops are providing support and backup for al Quaida.

The Twisted Genius

mike,

I never thought it was actual Al Qaeda. I figured someone was just taking the "a jihadi is a jihadi" idea to it's logical, and perhaps extreme, conclusion. Maghawir al-Thawra makes perfect sense.

Jack

TTG, Sir

Thank you for this excellent comprehensive report on the war in Syria. I really look forward to your military analysis of the Syrian war..

It seems the R+6 are slowly grinding their way through the eastern desert. Unlike a more traditional army it seems that ISIS forces don't surrender. They fight until they're killed. What tactics can R+6 deploy to mitigate the loss of life by VBIEDs?

On the other hand the AQ jihadis seem to work out a deal to head to Idlib. Two questions: Why aren't the AQ jihadis not creating another battle front to ease the pressure on ISIS forces in the eastern desert? Is the battle of Idlib gonna be the most nasty battle in this long war?

Peter AU

Most jihadi groups in Syria have fought alongside of and aided AQ even though they have not sworn allegiance to AQ. It is some time since I read the UN AQ designated terrorist list, but there is a good section in it about those who aid designated terrorist organisations and individuals.
In Syria the US has been aiding those who are aiding al Qaeda.

b

Thanks TTG for the overview.

Word is that Tanf will now be closed down. The U.S. claimed that the rebel forces there declined to fight only ISIS and wanted to continue to fight the government. That was a lie. Those forced did not agree to be flown to Shadadi in the north-east to fight under Kurdish command. They now joined the government.

The U.S. plans seems to be to build a force in Shadadi to race the Syrian army in an assault on Mayadin at the Euphrates. This move would capture some significant north-eastern oil resources still in the hand of ISIS. Very significant amounts U.S. equipment keeps flowing into the north eastern area. To preempt that Syria will probably need help from Iraq.

English Outsider


ZH claims that the President pulled support for anti-Assad rebels in the South after finding out they had been committing Jihadi-style atrocities. Bit late in the day to find that out, I'd have thought, but if this claim is true does it indicate the the President has not been getting accurate information from his staff?

The Twisted Genius

Jack,

The Tiger Forces developed tactics to specifically deal with those tactics employed by the IS fighters including the use of VBIEDs, ATGMs and such. The Tigers organized special teams to spot and deal with these threats. I remember reading an article describing this months ago and found it again fairly easily.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-became-effective-fighting-force-syria/

The various jihadis in Idlib seem to be too busy fighting among themselves at the moment. I think this was the R+6 plan all along. During the last war game I suggested that spetsnaz teams be used to conduct sabotage and assassinations in order to encourage this infighting. Perhaps the R+6 is doing this.

Matthew

TTG: Fascinating analysis as usual.

I literally returned from Turkey and Jordan this week. From speaking to some locals, I got the real sense that they are fatigued. Basically, neither Turks nor Jordanians want to fight to advance the interests of SA/Israel/USA against "the Iranians."

Of some local note, parts of Jordan experienced unrest following the conviction of the Jordanian soldier who shot the 3 GB's. Smart decision to release the video. Lots of fake stories were circulating. The video clarified the matter.

Fred

TTG,

An interesting possibility with Idlib province. I don't think that in the long term ISIS will self destruct there. From the map it is very visible as a malignancy that needs to be excised.

mike

TTG -

Although the other FSA group near al Tanf, Shuhada al-Qaryatayn, has refused to stop fighting against Assad. Their spokesman claims the US threatened to bomb our HQ after they attacked the government at al-Ghorab and al-Halba. They have refused to return arms to the Coalition "and will continue to use them against the Syrian regime".

mike

Peter -

CIA stupidity in backing weak sisters who could not stand up against Nusra et al.

mike

Suheil al Hassan for President?

turcopolier

mike

Talk like that is apt to get him killed or exiled. pl

Nightsticker

TTG,

Very much enjoy your periodic war
reports.
I think when future military analysts
and historians write about this war in
Syria that they are going to write a lot
about the "Reconciliation Operations" and
how they were an integral part of the SAA
strategy.

Nightsticker
USMC 65-72
FBI 72-96

Grazhdanochka

With due respect, I doubt it is necessary.

Russian Experience in Chechnya and other Areas is that these type Groups turn on each other by their own Internal Forces as it is, no need to risk People generally speaking. (It could happen certainly but not necessarily Important)

Certainly throwing the different Contingents into the same Pot and leaving them to fight each other can be considered a Planned Idea but it requires no real Special Missions to ferment.

As to dealing with ISIS SVBIED, importance is visibility, a problem is to what I understand (I only did Reservist Training!) many ATGM are not built to necessarily match the movement/speed of many Cars when they go somewhat 'Zigzag'....

I do not know about other Audiences, but for Russians many of us we saw Video - Syrian Troops, Tanks etc running as SVBIED attacked, and a lone Russian Soldier with Rifle shooting back before Impact...

I do not mean it to condemn these Men, but as to mean Motivations obviously differ

Jack

TTG, Sir

What do you think about suicide attacks and soldiers committed to die as military tactics? I recall reading about the Japanese kamikaze pilots but that was when the Japanese military was already falling apart.

Is the ideological commitment so strong that soldiers are willing to fight to their death? How does such a force get replenished? It would seem this is a wasteful expenditure of highly trained and motivated manpower.

I read that as ISIS is retreating from the western Euphrates villages they leave behind 20+ fighters whose sole purpose is to exact maximum damage to the SAA forces and die in the process.

The Twisted Genius

Jack,

It would not be uncommon for soldiers to be willing to face extreme risks of death to fulfill their duty. This is different from deliberately sacrificing oneself to fulfill a mission, but only slightly. It's what soldiers do in time of war... not all soldiers, but enough. I find this normal. I was comfortable with the possibility that I could have died young leaving my young sons without a father. I could not bear living to a ripe old age with my sons bearing the burden and ignominy of knowing their father was a coward. That's the way I was raised. Addressing this question fully would require far more than this comment.

For those 20+ IS fighters left to fight to the death in those Euphrates villages, it sounds like a DLIC mission (detachment left in contact). Just a bit more intense than most.

Anna

The ziocons are in charge:
"Sanctions are imposed against Russian financial institutions and their employees who interact with Syrian President Bashar Assad. The assets of such individuals will be frozen, the current US visas canceled, and entry into the US is forbidden." http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/08/trump-signs-anti-russian-sanctions-bill.html
A sovereign Syria is anathema for Israel. The Israel-firsters would better murder each and every child in Syria (with the US weaponry in the ISIS/Al Qaeda hands) than part with the Golan Heights.

DH

Unless there's a tacit agreement among the big powers to divvy up Syria, I don't think Russia would let that stand.

Bill Herschel

"What do you think about suicide attacks and soldiers committed to die as military tactics?"

I think this is going to become moot very rapidly. The VBIED's are either very smart or very stupid drones depending on your point of view. Retrofitting obsolete tanks with very elementary remote controlled autopilot would probably be the way to go.

dilbert dogbert

It will be interesting to read Col. Lang's thoughts on this:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ezra-cohen-watnick-fired-national-security-council

Kooshy

Iranian sites report first buildings in al Suknneh (I think it means settlement) has been taken by SAA

Kooshy

Fars news quoting the MI6 propaganda shop the 0bservatory for HR says SAA now has freed 20% od Al Suknnh

Cortes

Fisk's "sitrep" on infighting amongst the jihadis and potential fallout for the Kurds:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/08/02/when-syrian-war-ends-woe-to-the-kurds/

Castellio

The short answer is no, the President does not receive accurate information. This is an essential part of the problem: the staff have been hand-picked and placed precisely for their subservience to neo-con world views.

This issue came to a head with Chas Freeman: was the right man going to get the job daily briefing the (past) President, or the neo-con plant?

In many ways, this IS the battle, how to place people in State, Treasury, Justice, the White House, who are open to social/political alternatives and not beholden to the usual AIPAC crowd, and to have enough of such employees that they can grow into their more senior positions.

This situation did not happen overnight.

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