Sic Semper Tyrannis

FSA planning gas use in Deraa, Syria

"On Thursday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the Shabab al-Sunnah militant group in Daraa has of chemical weapons and is planning to use them.“We have received worrying information. According to Russia’s information, the Shabab al-Sunnah armed group has access to chemical weapons,” Zakharova said during a press conference.

Shabab al-Sunnah is one of the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups in southern Syria. The group participated in the attack on the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in Daraa city earlier this year. Furthermore, the groups is one of few FSA groups in Daraa that has received US-made TOW ATGMs.

Zakharova releveled that Shabab al-Sunnah has several missiles fitted with chemical agents in its warehouse in Daraa. Furthermore, according to Zakharova, the group is planning to use this weapons against a civilian area in Daraa.

Likely Shabab al-Sunnah is planning to sabotage the de-escalation agreement in southern Syria by faking a chemical weapons attack by the “Assad regime”.

Lately the group took part in the attack against ISIS-affiliated Jaysh Khalid ibn al-Waleed in the western Daraa countryside and made no gains what so ever."  SF

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Ok pilgrims, BOHICA!  (one of the oldies here will explain)

Having been repeatedly defeated these scum bags are probably going to try to create another bogus Syrian Govenment chemical drama.

OK!  Spread the word pilgrims.  There are a hell of a lot of you.  10,000 a day visit this site.

The FSA unicorns so beloved by McCain and the LOLFSC released a Syrian Army pilot captured after shoot down and 30 border guards.  Hopefully this is a sign that the unicorns are giving up the fight against the multi-confessional Syrian Government.

In SE Raqqa IS continues to throw reserves of men they cannot afford to lose into what has become an attritional fight against the Tiger Forces.  What should we call the Tiger Forces now, a division, an army corps?

pl

 

https://southfront.org/russia-fsa-planning-use-chemical-weapons-daraa/

Open Thread - 31 August 2017

pl

Adversarial games

Anyone whom I think believes SST to be an adversarial game will be banned as a troll. pl

US ... Bombed ISIS Convoy Heading From Qalamoun To Deir Ezzor Province ... SF

 

"Few moments ago, the US-led coalition air power bombed  an ISIS convoy moving from the Qalamoun area to the Syrian province of Deir Ezzor under the deal with Lebanese security forces, according to local sources.

No confirmed reports about the possible casualties are available.

About 300 ISIS members and 300-500 civilians withdrew from the Qalamoun area at the Syrian-Lebanese area after the deal had been reached with the support of Hezbollah.

Earlier today, the US-led coalition threatened to bomb the convoy.  "  South Front

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Well pilgrims, this ought to have some effect on the America haters who insist that the US created and runs IS for treacherous and nefarious secret purposes having to do with guano deposits in Kurdistan or some such thing.  But, it won't affect their nonsense at all.  A suitable rationalization will be found for the continuation of their lunacy.

Unfortunately, there will have been a lot of killed and wounded in this attack and some of them were probably Syrian bus drivers.  pl  

https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-bombed-isis-convoy-heading-from-qalamoun-to-deir-ezzor-province-under-deal-with-lebanon-reports/

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/world/middleeast/isis-syria-lebanon-us-military.html

"US troops in northern Syria came under direct attack" - TTG

"(CNN) - US troops in northern Syria came under direct attack last week by Turkish-backed rebels, a military official with the coalition fighting ISIS told CNN Tuesday. The official said that while US troops returned fire there were no casualties on either side.

The coalition believes the attackers are part of the Turkish-backed opposition forces, a loose grouping of Arab and Turkmen fighters that have helped the Turkish military clear ISIS from the Turkish-Syria border area.

"Recent incidents have occurred in territories primarily under the control of Turkish-backed fighters. We are engaged with Ankara and other parties to address this danger," Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon told CNN."

*************************

These things were bound to happen. We have semi-autonomous armed bands roaming the countryside with their clan banners flying. Allegiances are in flux. It reminds me of bands of horsemen roaming the steppes centuries ago. The only difference is that the horses are replaced with Nissan pickups, BMP-1s and Strykers. And the Tartar bows and lances are replaced with heavy machine guns and ATGMs. 

In other news two Arab militias previously fighting under the SDF banner in the Manbij region defected to the SAA. The militia leaders have already met with Suheil al Hassan. I think we’ll see a lot more of this in the coming months in the greater Idlib and Aleppo regions as part of an aggressive campaign to pull local tribes and tribal forces under the SAA.

I also think Moscow and Damascus are going to make it clear to the Kurds that full cooperation with Damascus is their only prudent course of action. I think Russia has developed enough sway over Erdogan to control any massive Turkish attacks on the Kurds if the Kurds yield to the wisdom of Damascus. Otherwise, Turkey will make life miserable for the Rojava Kurds.

I’ll go out on a limb here and say this will happen before the SAA turns its attention and forces from the coming liberation of Deir Ezzor to the reduction of the Idlib jihadis, probably with the aid of the Kurds and the acquiescence of the Turks. We’ll see.

TTG

http://www.newsjs.com/url.php?p=http://www.wcyb.com/news/politics/us-troops-exchanged-fire-with-turkish-backed-rebels-in-syria/613843622

IS continues to throw away reserves - 29 August 2017

 

"Last night ISIS launched a large-scale attack against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and pro-government tribal forces in the southern Raqqah countryside.

According to pro-militant sources, ISIS had deployed elite forces for this advance and even achieved some gains pushing the SAA Tiger Forces and other pro-government units to retreat to the Ghanim Ali-Bishri road. ISIS units reportedly entered the Wadi Ubayd oil field area, Wadi al-Tarab and Rajm Sulayman but were not able to develop the advance further.

Government forces re-grouped and launched a counter-attack to regain the points lost to ISIS. According to some pro-government sources, government troops, led by the Tiger Forces, even did this and regained all lost points.

However, these reports were overestimation. Government forces were not able to reach the outskirts of Maadan.

On Tuesday, the ISIS-linked news agency Amaq released few reports claiming that ISIS members killed 50 SAA members and destroyed 3 vehicles as well as captured a battle tank."  South Front

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What it is that IS thought it was doing last night in counter-attacking some of Syria's best and heaviest units is not clear to me.  This counter attack to the NW through the riparian villages could be made at night when stealth and surprise favors the attacker, but the sun usually rises every morning and when that happens the side that has the most weight of fire and armor typically moves forward to grind up the forces that attacked in the night.   This series of events is predictable given IS's previous experience with the R+6 forces.  So, what are they doing?

At the same time R+6 continues to carve the Uqayribat pocket in west Homs Province into smaller and more digestible pieces.  A North-south bisection is underway at the moment.  This pocket should be gone in a few days. 

This will free up yet more pro-government fighters for commitment elsewhere.

In other news, it now is clear the the HTS attempt to open a path to the IS fighters in the Uqayribat Pocket was a local  initiative for which the HTS local commaders have been rebuked and disciplined.  pl   

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-repelling-large-isis-attack-in-southern-raqqah-map/

800 IS KIA at Ghanem Ali, Syria

 

" ...According to the statement, over 800 ISIS members, 13 battle tanks, 39 pickup trucks armed with large-caliber machine guns and 9 mortars and artillery guns have been destroyed during the clashes in the Ghanem al-Ali village area near the Euphrates River."  SF

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Ghanem ali means Ali's sheep.  Ghanem al-ali would mean sheep belonging to the Ali.  This probably means that the people of that village are known as The Ali.  Pedantic detail?  Sure.  Enjoy.

As we expected the ineptitude of IS in positioning themelves in a concentration mass in a penetrating salient has cost them dearly.  Oh well, another day, another 800 men.

This must have been a tough day for the sheep and their owners.

I listened to Rex Tillerson talk about Syria and Iraq today on Fox New Sunday.  He did not say a word about what Russia or Syria are doing in Syria.  Nevertheless, coordination between the US and Russia continues.  pl

https://southfront.org/govt-forces-russian-warplanes-eliminate-800-isis-fighters-and-high-number-of-equipment-in-euphrates-river-valley/

MAYDAY KOREA! by William R. Polk

 

America on the Brink of Nuclear War (Part 1)

The US and North Korea are on the brink of hostilities that if begun would almost certainly lead to a nuclear exchange.  This is the expressed judgment of most competent observers.  They differ over the causes of this confrontation and over the size, range and impact of the weapons that would be fired, but no one can doubt that even a “limited” nuclear exchange would have horrifying effects throughout much of the world including North America. 

So how did we get to this point, what are we now doing and what could be done to avoid what would almost certainly be the disastrous consequences of even a “limited” nuclear war?

The media is replete with accounts of the latest pronouncements and events, but both in my personal experience in the closest we ever came to a nuclear disaster, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and from studying many other “flash points,” I have learned that failure to appreciate the background and sequence of events makes one incapable of understanding the present and so is apt to lead to self-defeating actions.  With this warning in mind, I will recount in Part 1 how we and the Koreans got to where we are.  Then in Part 2, I will address how we might go to war, what that would mean and what we can do to stay alive.

*          *          *

            Throughout most of its history, Korea regarded China as its teacher.  It borrowed from China Confucianism, its concepts of law, its canons of art and its method of writing.  For these, it usually paid tribute to the Chinese emperor.

            With Japan, relations were different.  Armed with the then weapon of mass destruction, the musket, Japan invaded Korea in 1592 and occupied it with more than a quarter of a million soldiers.  The Koreans, armed only with bows and arrows, were beaten into submission.  But, because of events in Japan, and particularly the decision to give up the gun, the Japanese withdrew in less than a decade and left Korea on its own. 

            Nominally unified under one kingdom, Korean society was already divided between the Puk-in or “people of the North” and the Nam-in or “people of the South.”  How significant this division was in practical politics is unclear, but apparently it played a role in thwarting attempts at reform and in keeping the country isolated from outside influences.  It also weakened the country and facilitated the second intrusion of the Japanese. In search of iron ore for their nascent industry, they “opened” the country in 1876.  Hot on the Japanese trail came the Americans who established diplomatic relations with the Korean court in 1882.

"The Russian Campaign in Syria" Russian General Staff

 

(The Kursk salient)

Main efforts of SAA and Russian Armed Forces grouping are focused on the last ISIS stronghold near Deir ez-Zor. 

The ISIS terrorists are concentrating their forces near Deir ez-Zor. Insurgents from Mosul and most battle-ready units have been redeployed there.

"Units of SAA and militia supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces are developing their offensive on Deir ez-Zor from three directions. Moreover, a large ISIS grouping has been encircled near Uqayribat. It is being defeated. 

Al-Sukhnah has been liberated from ISIS insurgents due to hits of the Russian Aerospace Forces and offensive actions of the government troops. 

As decision on providing military assistance to Syria had been taken, deployment of control system of actions held by the Russian force grouping has become the priority task for the General Staff of the Russian Federation. 

This system allows the leadership of the Russian Defence Ministry to control the situation and to respond expeditiously. 

Moreover, interaction of the leadership of the Russian Defence Ministry between officials of the military departments of the United States of America, Turkey, Office of the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General to Syria in Geneva and Damascus, representatives of the Russian Federation in the Syrian Support Group, Centre of operative reaction on ceasefire violations in Geneva as well as representatives of other international organizations. 

All this allow to discuss and approve military political issues, exchange opinions about the situation, and organize humanitarian actions in Syria towns and villages."   Russian Defense Ministry

--------------

As I wrote and expected R+6 has counter-attacked to eliminate the foolish IS penetration in SE Raqqa Province.

The Russians estimate the number of IS left in Syria to be 9,000 and the number of HTS (AQ) to be 10,000.  These will be almost entirely in HTS controlled Idlib Province.  IMO they are guessing on the numbers.

The notion that the HTS can be "talked down out of the tree is delusional.  pl 

http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12139759@egNews

A "forlorn hope" in SE Raqqa Province

"On August 24, ISIS launched a large counter-attack and recaptured the villages of al-Muqlah, al-Atshanah, Salem al-Hamad, al-Bu Hamad, Zor Shumr, al-Huwijah and Ghanem al-Ali in the southern Raqqa countryside. According to the ISIS-linked news agency Amaq, ISIS killed 42 Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers during the attack. 58 more SAA members were allegedly killed in a car bomb attack on a gathering of SAA soldiers near Ghanim al-Ali village. On August 25, clashes continued with the SAA and it sallies were attempting to regain momentum in the area."    SF

-----------

IS is desperate to make a stand somewhere in the vast Raqqa/Homs/Hama Provinces area in which a combination of R+6 ground forces and R+6/US coalition air is cutting them to pieces and then crushing the pieces.

In the west of this set of cauldron battles, HTS Al-Qa'ida forces have tried in the last three days to break through across the Salamiya to Aleppo supply road to open an escape or reinforcement route to trapped IS forces south of the road.  Politically this is a surprise because of the unusual character of this cooperation between the two jihadi groups, but, it seems that the need to confront the R+6 forces has overcome that inhibition in this case.  In any event, the effort appears to have failed even as this IS pocket continues to shrink.

In the east of the set of ongoing battles, IS forces were massed yesterday for an attack along the Euphrates River to the NW through villages held by pro-government tribals in an economy of force role to free up heavy forces for other missions.  These IS forces re-captured half a dozen small villages and killed around a hundred tribals and SAA soldiers.

Their success has IMO placed these IS fighters in an indefensible salient with the irrigated strip of the Euphrates Valley and the river itself to their north or right depending on how you want to express it.  The SDF holds the ground to the north of the river.   The ground south of the salient is held by the R+6.

Penetrations like this inevitably run out of steam unless reinforcements are stacked up behind them to be pushed forward as losses occur by attrition.

I expect that R+6 will re-position heavy mechanized forces and will attack to the river with maximum air support. 

This should be a rewarding killing ground in which to send a lot of IS jihadis "home."  pl 

https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-southern-raqqah-on-august-25-2017-map-update/

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 AUGUST 2017 - Patrick Armstrong

THE NEW NWO AND RUSSIA. This is very much worth reading. The authors argue that in the coming (well, already here) rivalry between the American maritime power and the Chinese land power, Russia is the swing player that can hand victory to one or the other: "So logic says that the US should be very nice to Russia and seek to establish some kind of military alliance". Well, logic's voice isn't loud enough for the US Congress to hear. Also interesting is their discussion of Germany's choices and the important role Saudi Arabia could play if it changes protectors again. (I too wondered this two years ago.)

PUTIN'S POPULARITY. Some Western academics asked "But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters?" and concluded "Putin’s approval ratings largely reflect the attitudes of Russian citizens." I didn't bother to read their paper because I know – as does any serious observer – the answer already. Of course he's popular: he is the leader of a team which has achieved a tremendous turnaround in Russia's situation. Since 2000 all indicators are up. I wish we could say the same in our part of the world.

RUSSIA INC. GDP grew 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter; this is the highest growth since 2013. PMI is up to 52.7. Inflation is the lowest in five years.

USSR DEBT. With a payment to Bosnia, Moscow has paid off the last of the debt it inherited from the USSR. When an earlier agreement that the 15 would divide the debt fell apart, Moscow took responsibility for all of it in return for USSR assets abroad. It did this despite the fact that its creditors insisted on repayment while many of its debtors could not pay. The total was about USD80 billion and many debts to it were forgiven. I well remember how glad we all were that it took responsibility for the debts as well as the other leftovers: weaponry outside, nuclear weapons and its guarantee of Russian citizenship to any Soviet citizen who wasn't automatically given citizenship where he lived. It was only later that the last three were rebranded as evidence of imperialistic intentions.

DEMOGRAPHICS. There has been a small net decline in Russia's population this year after several years of growth. We will see if this is a bump or a trend. (Although Karlin, who is much more knowledgeable than I, predicted a return to "normal" rates two and a half years ago.)

AGRICULTURE. The Agriculture Minister estimates the grain harvest will be 110 million tonnes which would leave as much as 40 million for export. So Russia will presumably keep the title of number one.

VISA RETALIATION. My take: I believe Moscow is ready to follow Washington right down to zero representation is that's where it goes. But, if the Russiagate bubble bursts (probably the most severe blow is the exposure of the Guccifer 2.0 fake by VIPS) then the original pretext will burst too and things can get back to normal.

MAKING WATER RUN UP HILL. Lithuania is getting LNG from the USA and Ukraine coal from the USA. More expensive but supposedly for security. Well, whatever: if they want to pay more, let them. Of course in all likelihood they will "pay" with IMF or EU loans. Payback's a problem for later.

CHANGE OR BLIP? The Prime Minister says Riga is interested in better relations with Moscow and a Polish poll shows number who regard Russia as a threat down about 50% in 3 years. After all, despite years of "Europe faces a 'real threat' from Russia" Russia still hasn't conquered anybody. But that just makes some people shout louder: "The growing Russian military threat in Europe".

TRUMP KEEPS AFGHANISTAN GOING. Reinforcing failure. Trump Vows To Leave A Better Afghanistan For Nation’s Grandchildren To Fight In. The generals rolled him, as they rolled Obama. And if it really was short skirts, then there's a lot more to that story than he, or McMaster, probably know. Today the Americans get their supplies in via Pakistan or the Central Asian countries (through Russia). Washington has made threatening noises at Pakistan and Russia. How then?

CHICKENS, HOME, ROOST. Torchlight parades in Kiev, Riga, Tallinn. And now Charlottesville. "Nationalists" there, but "Nazis" here. Some historical background for the Ukraine case; Baltics.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Newsweek discovers a new bottom level. "Charlottesville's Alt-right Leaders Have a Passion for Vladimir Russian Federation President Putin".

UKAINE. More signposts of disaster. Ukrainians now spend 50% of their income on food; not poverty says the Minister of Social Policy fatuously but because they like to eat well. The Economist rates Kiev among the ten least liveable cities. Did Ukraine supply the rocket motors to North Korea? And, I've mentioned this before, but the longest-lasting effect of the Kiev coup may be a nuclear disaster.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Some Thoughts on Monuments - TTG

There is much hysteria lately about monuments. To various people they assume the mantels of symbols of Southern heritage or ugly reminders of slavery, segregation and white supremacy. I, however, have never been prone to hysteria. Whether it was engaging in a fifty foot free fall onto lava rock or being bracketed by naval gunfire, I remained calm. It’s probably a brain defect.

Yesterday’s Free Lance-Star ran a ran a front page story on calls on the Fredericksburg City Council to move the slave auction block at the corner of William and Charles streets to a museum. The other side of the debate contends that the auction block should remain where it is. “We need to sometimes feel shock, pain and remorse to know how far we’ve come, what has been done, what has been sacrificed,” one city council member said. The debate is heart felt, respectful and calm. I am very proud of that fact.

I am of the firm conviction that the auction block should stay where it is, but with a more meaningful and appropriate marker than the one that exists now. I first saw the auction block in the Summer of 1988 when I first moved to the area. It gave me a depressed and uneasy feeling. I felt the same thing when I walked through Dachau several years later. This artifact of Fredericksburg’s history must stay in place and bear witness to our past.

During this visit in 1988, I also visited the sunken road and the Kirkland Memorial commemorating the story of South Carolina Sergeant Richard Rowland Kirkland bringing water to wounded Union soldiers lying in front of Confederate positions at the sunken road during the first battle of Fredericksburg in December 1862. Although the story of “The Angel of Marye’s Heights” may not be historically accurate, the memorial is a moving tribute to a soldier’s compassion for another soldier. The monument was erected and dedicated during the Civil War Centennial in 1965. I know of no demonstrations occurring for or against this memorial. I would hope that anyone trying to stage a political spectacle near these monuments  in these turbulent times would be run out of town. The same goes for the Meade Pyramid on Prospect Hill or any of the Confederate monuments within the Confederate cemetery. The annual lighting of luminaria in this cemetery and in the nearby National cemetery remain respectful and moving commemorations. Things are as they should be in Fredericksburg.

——————————————

The situation in Richmond is quite different. Here the potential for strife and violence is real. It was not always the case. As late as last May, Civil War historian Kevin Levin wrote “What Richmond Has Gotten Right About Interpreting Its Confederate History.” At that time Mayor Stoney still ruled out the removal of any of the Confederate monuments along Monument Avenue. Rather, in recent years, Richmond chose to bring in other monuments to balance the significant and quite beautiful Confederate commemoration sites. Although not at all related to the Civil War, the Arthur Ashe monument was installed on Monument Avenue in 1996. Many white Virginians were aghast that a monument to a black tennis player would be placed on what they consider hallowed ground. Many black residents of Richmond were upset that a monument to their native son was so close to monuments to slave holders. But Arthur went up without violence and now presides over the annual Confederate commemoration parade along with Davis, Lee, Jackson and Stuart.

In April 2003 a life-sized statue of Lincoln and his son Tad sitting on a bench was installed on the site of Tredegar Ironworks. Behind Lincoln and his son is a wall with Lincoln’s words “To Bind Up the Nation’s Wounds” inscribed upon it. Although this monument memorializes the historically significant event of Lincoln’s visit to Richmond just days after it fell to Union forces in April 1865, there was loud opposition to the monument’s installation. Bragdon Bowling, then president of the Virginia division of the Sons of Confederate Veterans (SCV) was one of the leaders of the opposition. He described the Lincoln monument as "a slap in the face of brave men and women who went through four years of unbelievable hell fighting an invasion of Virginia by President Lincoln.” He further said the statue "is a not-so-subtle reminder of who won the war, and who our heroes should be." There were several hundred protesters at the event, many wearing Confederate uniforms and carrying the confederate battle flag. Bowling saw the monument as “a painful reminder of who won the war.”

Well, whether you call it the Civil War, the War Between the States or the War of Northern Aggression, it is a fact that Lincoln’s Union won that war. That fact is also part of the city’s heritage. Perhaps Bragdon Bowling should heed his own words when he offered advice for those who oppose Confederate monuments “turn your head if you don’t like it.” I think this Lincoln memorial, far more modest and contemplative than the Confederate statues on Monument Avenue, is a fitting addition to Richmond. 

There are several other recent additions to Richmond’s acknowledgement of her heritage. There is the Richmond Slavery Reconciliation Statue installed in Shockoe Bottom in 2007. Identical statues stand in Liverpool, England and in the Republic of Benin. Efforts to preserve Lumpkin’s Slave Jail and create a Slavery Memorial Park in Shockoe Bottom around that archeological site and a nearby African burial ground are underway. I’d much rather see this go forward than see Richmond or Virginia expend resources moving any Confederate statues from Monument Avenue. Given our current legal statutes, that idea is a non-starter anyways.

There is one other event that I would like to see memorialized in a grand manner in Richmond. It consists of the events described in this dispatch from the front.

City Point, VA., April 3, 1865—11 a.m.

Hon. E. M. Stanton, Secretary of War:

General Weitzel telegraphs as follows:

We took Richmond at 8.15 this morning. I captured many guns. The enemy left in great haste. The city is on fire in two places. Am making every effort to put it out. The people received us with enthusiastic expressions of joy.

T. S. Bowers, Assistant Adjutant-General.

The events of that moment are well described in this account from Mark St. John Erikson, a reporter for the Daily Press out of Newport News. Whenever I visit my younger son, I pass the two highway plaques that now commemorate that event. I also remember passing the Surrender Tree, a massive white oak that stood close to the spot where Richmond Mayor Mayo surrendered the city to advancing Union troops. It fell during a derecho in 2012. Luckily, my son’s house escaped damage other than losing a few shingles.

   

The first Union infantry unit that marched into Richmond was the 36th Infantry Regiment, US Colored Troops. Many of the infantrymen in the 36th were former slaves from the Tidewater Virginia region. It was these former slaves who were greeted by the black residents of Richmond, slaves and freedmen, with such enthusiasm on what became Emancipation Day in Richmond. I would like to see this event memorialized in a grand way at a prominent location in Richmond. It would be a fitting counterpoint to the statues memorializing the Confederacy on Monument Avenue. History should be remembered.

TTG

P.S. - The photo at the top of this post is the Soldier's Monument in Prospect, Connecticut. I grew up in the house, a former glebe house, visible behind the monument. That soldier and I have had a close relationship as far back as I can remember. In first grade I marched around him with my classmates wearing shakos made from construction paper, carrying our American flags and singing patriotic songs. The tree at the far left is a scion of Connecticut's Charter Oak. I often climbed it as a youth. 

Syria - 23 August 2017 - a second pocket in Homs/Hama

 

"Pro-government forces, led by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) Tiger Forces, have liberated the Dahik Mount at the Sukhna-Resafa road and created the second ISIS pocket in the province of Homs. Now, ISIS terrorists are encircled in the two separate ISIS-held areas: in the area of Uqayrabat and in the area northeast of Palmyra."  South Front

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Unless HTS (AQ) chooses to attack to open a gap from Idlib Province (green colored on map) or the IS forces in these two large pockets manage to break out to the east, they are doomed,  Good.  Months ago, someone on SST laughed at the idea that the SAA and friends (R+6) could conduct operations on a grand scale like this.  Evidently, whoever claimed that,was wrong.   These decisive battles and maneuvers are destroying IS.  IS forces were severely damaged at Mosul and Raqqa.  The campaign for Homs/Hama will finish them off.   pl 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-august-23-2017-syrian-army-liberates-large-area-from-isis/

https://southfront.org/government-forces-liberate-mount-dahik-create-second-isis-pocket-in-central-syria/

The generals rolled him, as they rolled Obama ...

 

Before an audience of troops ordered into attendance, DJT gave us his decision on policy in Afghanistan:

1.  "There will be no blank check."  Since the applicability of this statement was not made clear, I will take it to mean that there will be limits as to how many military resources will be "invested" in Afghanistan, how much US taxpayers' money is spent there for however long it (victory) takes.  Nevertheless, no numbers were provided for possible troop end strengths or expenditures.

2.  "Decisions about future policy will be based on events on the ground, not on schedules decided in Washington."  This means that there will be no oversight over the commander in Afghanistan except by Mattis and McMaster, the apparent authors of this policy.  This is an abandonment of the American policy of civilian control of the military.  The last time we did this was in WW2 in the European theater.  In the Pacific the rivalry betwee MacArthur and the Navy made oversight by FDR a possibility. 

3.  We will fight until victory is achieved, victory being defined as a secure position for the elected government and an absence of terrorist plots against the US being "hatched" in Afghanistan.

4.  We will not "nation build," but will maintain the aforesaid government in power.  This presumably will cost a lot more money.

5.   "As the prime minister of Afghanistan has promised, we are going to participate in economic development to help defray the cost of this war to us."  Text of Speech.   As is well known I am not sympathetic to economic explanations of history but this has a name, "colonialism."

6.  Pakistan is defined by Trump in this speech as a major haven and sponsor of terrorism in Afghanistan.  IMO this is correct.  DJT says that pressure will be applied to correct this.

7.  India is summoned in the speech to help us achieve "victory" in Afghanistan and in helping us control Pakistan's adverse behavior.  India and Pakistan are enemies and both are nuclear armed.  Pakistan, as I have written elsewhere, can range the eastern Mediterranean with its mobile ballistic missiles when positioned in western Baluchistan.

8. All restrictions will be removed from the actions of military commanders in the field.

9.  It was repeatedly said in the speech that we must struggle on to victory to justify the losses we have suffered thus far.  This is sentimental nonsense.  Such reasoning completely ignores the principle of necessary acceptance of "sunk costs" that should be obvious to a businessman.

-------------

IMO this speech was written in McMaster's national security policy shop.  It is filled with mutually conflicting and sentimental items the foolishness of which are compounded by very imperfect understandings of the peoples of the region.  The conditions for "victory" are unattainable.  There will always be insurgent movements in Afghanistan, movements that threaten the country's stability and there will alway be jihadis hatching plots in Afghanistan againt the US.  

Therefore, this is a recipe for unending colonial stye war waged by the US in South Asia.  

What would a wise policy be?  You tell me.  pl 

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/21/president-trumps-primetime-address-on-afghanistan-annotated/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.2f0aaa25d71d

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/08/22/daily-202-a-dozen-key-lines-from-trump-s-afghanistan-speech/599b8cf930fb0435b8208f72/?utm_term=.1c4e42a7211d

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/08/httpswwwbingcomvideossearchq22americacannotandwillnotsucceedinafghanistan2fpakistanqpvt22amer.html 

http://nypost.com/2017/08/21/i-hope-trump-is-right-and-im-wrong-on-afghanistan/

"The Endless Hazing of Trump by Sanctimonious Frauds" The Spectator

 

"According to CNN’s David Gergen, whose back-stabbing scumbaggery made him notorious in Washington, Trump “needs to deal with the hatred in his own heart.” Pastor Gergen delivered this moral instruction with his much-practiced look of anguish. At such utter nonsense and gargantuan hypocrisy, all one can do is laugh. Only propagandized nitwits would take any of CNN’s self-righteous posturing seriously. CNN head Jeff Zucker has all the integrity of a strip club owner. Maybe less. At least strip club owners don’t pretend to be something they are not. Zucker calls himself the head of a news network when in reality he is nothing more than a cynical, lowlife maestro of a 24/7 anti-Trump infomercial designed to maximize ratings and delight his corrupt peers.

Of course, joining the liberal mandarins in their sanctimonious and comically unfair nitpicking of Trump — CNN’s cheap-shot headline about Trump “caving to the outrage” (by condemning white supremacists) captures this culture perfectly — are self-described “Republican consultants” whose thin résumés indicate that they are neither Republicans nor consultants in any meaningful sense. Turn on MSNBC or CNN at almost any hour of the day and one of these hideous blowhards will appear. Two of the worst are Nicole Wallace and Ana Navarro. They are two know-it-alls who know nothing except how to pick up a check from news executives happy to pay them for their arrogant, mindless gibbering, provided that it is aimed below Trump’s belt. Such is the CNN-encouraged cockiness of Navarro that she has pronounced the president of the United States ”unfit to be a human.”"   The Spectator

-------------

The phenomena described in this article are so seamless and relentless that one can only believe that there is an ops center somewhere.  Added to that is the studied avoidance in coverage of the many Democratic subjects for investigation.  "Is a puzzlement."  pl 

https://spectator.org/the-endless-hazing-of-trump-by-sanctimonious-frauds/

Fareed Zakahari Opens his Reparations Account .... a narrative ... by Fred

Recorded here are the stiring words of one of the Republic's more insightful editorialists as he proposes a method to heal the wounds of this great nation as they came to me, as, to quote MLK,  "I had a dream today". 

Fareed Zakaharia: "Delayed, qualified and mealy-mouthed reactions of many in America's leadership class tell a distrubing story about the country's elites - and the reason we are living in an age of populist rebellion."¹   I now urge all American's, especially "The United States technology pioneers .... prophets of the future who opine on space travel and artificial intelligence. Can they not see what is going on right here on Earth   ....  and condemn it?"^{1, 2, 3}  

As an American I do not want to  be on the Wrong Side of History ⁵. I therefore open this account to pay those victims⁴ - from the very inception of America as an independant nation - for the wounds inflicted by slavery, Jim Crow, and the most recent horrors inflicted daily by those statues; erected by the decendants of those who almost destroyed the Union.

"Today we hae a more merit based elite, what is often called a meritocracy."¹  Therfore I hereby voluntarily yield up all benefets adhereing to myself and to my posterity that are set forth in all "Affirmative Action" legislation. America is and must be a more merit based society.

Thus ends a dream. Hopefully not the American dream. 

¹ Fareed Zakharia quotations from his  Washington Post editorial

²  Will they be asked to condemn Censorhip Today

²  Who gets to decide what is labeled hate? Ministry of Hate gets richer

² How much longer will your bailed out bank allow you to spend your own money if you are on the Wrong Side of History?

³ A prophet: 

 Net wealth $69.9 Billion. Reparations account balance: $0.0. Now that is some white privelege. I wonder what the other prophets will do to make amends to America's victim class.

⁴   
Sergeant Major Christian Fleetwood, 4th USCT. 

I wonder what the Sergeant Major would have thought of America's greatest victim of slavery as he showed the world the proper way of "fighting for justice for people, to try to stop oppression" 

In the New South they know just what to do:

Tear it down! 

⁵  I, Fred, would rather  be on the right side of America's future; but that, apparently, is a minority opinion. It's looking pretty grim in the short term too, what with our nation's past not meeting the 2017 standards of the loosers of the 2016 election. It looks like it is going to be a long, cruel summer.  

 

The Marble Man and his wife's slaves.

 

"Uncle Bob." as the troops called him)

********

"It also said that Mr. Custis, while dying, told his slaves that they should be freed immediately, rather than five years on.

Lee challenged that account. In his letter to The Times, he said that “there is no desire on the part of the heirs to prevent the execution” of the will. And he said Mr. Custis, who was “constantly attended” by family members during his final days, had never been heard granting immediate freedom to his slaves.

The Times published Lee’s letter on Jan. 8, 1858, (though the letter itself, written shortly after New Year’s, appears to be mistakenly dated 1857) and said it was “glad” to be corrected on the matter.

The war came three years later.

Lee joined the secessionists in April 1861. He left Arlington House, and the estate was eventually overtaken by Union soldiers. (The dead were buried in its grounds, which would later become the site of Arlington National Cemetery.) Over the course of the conflict, many slaves were hired out or escaped the property.

In 1862, in accordance with Mr. Custis’s will, Lee filed a deed of manumission to free the slaves at Arlington House and at two more plantations Mr. Custis had owned, individually naming more than 150 of them. And in January 1863, President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation, declaring that all people held as slaves in the rebelling states “are, and henceforward shall be free.”  NY Times

-------------

It is said of some people that they are a steel fist in a velvet glove.  In this case, perhaps a marble fist in a velvet glove would be more apt.  He was a woman raised boy, schooled by a pacifist Quaker schoolmaster here in Alexandria.  His many family connections arranged an appointment to West Point as a way of educating him in straightened circumstances.  He much regretted the need that had forced him into a military career.

IMO the best books that speak of him are Freeman,s "Robert E. Lee: a biography,"  "Lee's Lieutenants," and Foote's "The Civil War, a narrative."  There is a lot of other material but these stand out for me.  In Myers-Briggs terms I judge him to be an ISTJ. 

He was endlessly, almost painfully courteous, so much so that his reticence in simply ordering people around who needed it was IMO a factor leading to failure in many places.

At the same time, the tiger caged within showed in his cold rages of frustration.  On the battlefield this beast stared at the surrounding world wih great fierceness.  His utterance at Fredericksburg while watching Burnside's blue host advance was typical.  "It is well that war is so terrible or we would love it too much."  And then there is the matter of his attempt to advance in the front line of the Texas Brigade in counter-attack in The Wilderness.  "Drive them, Texans, drive them as you always do..."  They refused to advance until he went to the rear.  One of their sergeants took the reins of the grey horse and led it to the rear as the brigade went forward.

Would he have watched and urged a deputy sheriff to beat run away slaves?  IMO he might have done that. He felt a keen responsibility to guard his wife's extensive property and whatever it was that his children would inherit.  He was the legal guardian of that property under laws then common in the US.  It should be noted that in 1862 he sent papers across the lines manumitting the remaining 150 slaves at Arlington in accordance with the terms of his father in law's will.  Before the war he had required his wife to live on his army pay whenever she was not resident on her property.

He could be very hard.  In Pennsylvania he issued an order to his forces saying that anyone who molested the German farmers in the neighborhood would be severely punished.  Several were shot.  In the dark winter of Mine Run he insisted that a Confederate who had been taken prisoner and had then joined the Union Army to later desert back to his own side, be shot for desertion when he was captured by his own Louisiana Regiment.  The court-martial had recommended mercy, but he insisted.  They shot him tied to a post out in no man's land with Meade's army watching. The man's last words of loyalty to his comrades who were required to kill him are too painful to repeat.

Was he a great general?  IMO he was not.  He was a military engineer who began the war with a rudimentary understanding of tactics but steadily improved until his health broke down in 1864.  His notion that the CSA had to beat the eastern Union Army  on northern soil was suicidal in light of the disparity of resources on the two sides.

No, he was a great soul who seems to have thought nothing of himself and a great leader.  The men of the A of NV followed him to the end with a devotion that no general deserves as the agent of their destruction.

After the war, he was altogether devoted to his family, Washington College and the cause of reconciliation.  

He never wrote memoirs and was opposed to memorialization through statuary.  pl

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/us/robert-e-lee-slaves.html

Major Cauldrons Forming in Central Syria - TTG

“BEIRUT, LEBANON (1:15 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has officially halted their field operations in the southeastern countryside of the Al-Raqqa Governorate after more than 7 weeks of being on the offensive against the Islamic State (ISIL).

According to a military source, the Syrian Arab Army’s Tiger Forces have been ordered to halt their advance on Deir Ezzor until the Islamic State’s pocket in central Syria is fully cleared.

The Tiger Forces will now concentrate on the Hama Governorate, where many of their units are currently awaiting orders to storm the strategic town of ‘Uqayrbat.

‘Uqayrbat is considered the most important town under the Islamic State’s control because it is located along several roadways that flow through the Al-Raqqa and Homs governorates.”  (Al Masdar News)

***********************

Cauldron, kessel, pocket, motti or encirclement, call them what you will, but the major jihadi salient in central Syria is about to become two major jihadi cauldrons. That appears to have been the foremost military objective of R+6 forces for several weeks. Yesterday’s announcement makes it official.

The Tiger Forces drive to the Euphrates from Aleppo, started so long ago, was a critical and necessary move to reduce the IS salient along the Homs-Hama governorate border. It created the conditions for the imminent creation of two cauldrons where a salient once existed. Another move that was critical was the constant R+6 pressure all along this front. Note on the above map that every blue circle represents a sustained offensive action by the R+6, even at Deir Ezzor. These widespread offensive actions prevented the IS forces from concentrating at a place of their choosing to seize the initiative.

As I write this, the SAA has managed to either close the gap or come within five kilometers of closing the gap between the Ithriya and Al Sha’er advances, thus creating the first of the cauldrons. This has already been called the Uqayribat pocket. The Tiger Forces are continuing to press southwards from Al Kawm. It is this advance that I find most interesting and most telling about the future of the SAA.  

In the early morning hours of 12 August, Brigadier General Suheil al-Hassan was preparing a company-sized assault force of the Special Airborne Force for a night airmobile assault some twenty kilometers behind IS lines. This Special Airborne force is not part of Hassan’s Tiger Forces. Before the recent unpleasantness in Syria began, they were primarily used for defense of airports but had a great deal of training in urban warfare and counter insurgency. Suheil served as a paratrooper and commander in this unit before forming the Tigers.

Suheil al-Hassan personally led this assault force on this mission. He was seen exhorting his troops on the tarmac wearing a load bearing equipment vest, a helmet with night vision goggles and an AK with night sight under his arm. His troops were also lightly armed with a basic load of ammunition for their small arms, many carried what appear to a LAW-type launcher slung across their backs. The lightness of their loads were apparent as they ran and jumped up into the Mi-8 helicopter transports. I also note the rear doors of the Hips were removed remnicent of those Hueys in the 25th Infantry Division. I didn’t know they had doors until I got back to Benning.

The operation began with a “fire attack” of multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) followed by an aerial assault by Ka-52 Alligators. The Alligators also adjusted MLRS fire. Then four Hips brought in Suheil’s men landing near the settlements of Khirbet Mikman and Al Kadir. They moved along a dry river bed to take a commanding hill and assaulted the village of Al Kadir. Suheil’s men took an IS headquarters and several depots. Suheil and his men held these positions until Tiger Forces advanced to relieve them later in the morning of 12 August. The IS lost over thirty of its fighters, three tanks, seventeen armed tacticals and seven VBIEDs to destruction by the raiding force and a further two VBIEDs and several artillery pieces captured by Suheil’s men. There were no SAA casualties from this entire operation.

The Tiger Forces did not stop there. By nightfall on 14 August, they advanced another twenty kilometers seizing the entire Al Kawm area. The IS retreated to Taybah, the last town between the Tiger Forces and their SAA brethren at Al Sukhnah. The Tiger Forces have since taken Mount Minshar, the high ground overlooking Taybah. I do not know whether the SAA prefers to close this cauldron as soon as possible or leave a small gap to entice IS to attempt a withdrawal. This narrow gauntlet covered by R+6 fire attacks with artillery and MLRS and round the clock predations by Syrian and Russian air attacks could be a very effective meat grinder. 

The future of IS in Syria is becoming clear. They are sure to put up a spirited resistance along the Euphrates, but they will never take Deir Ezzor. They will dissolve into a stateless, but still dangerous, underground resistance. The R+6 will keep the pressure on, probably quite brutally, until IS is no more than angry men in a few mosques.

The SAA, with Russian assistance, will become a motivated, well trained and equipped force capable of daring and imaginative combined arms operations. It will be regularly train with Iranian and Hezbollah units and will be a great source of ulcers among the Israeli Defense Force. When the Syrian Air Force eventually reaches maturity, those Israeli ulcers will bleed without stop. The political geography of the Mideast is about to change.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/complete-breakdown-central-syria-battle-map/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-airborne-forces-conduct-rare-mission-behind-enemy-lines-video/

 

American Insanity by Publius Tacitus

I understand why some people dislike Donald Trump. He certainly says intemperate things, appears to have no deeply intelligent governing philosophy and is at the extreme end of the narcissist spectrum. That said, the media/punditry meltdown over his alleged "ambiguous" "inadequate" statement in the immediate aftermath of a crazed rightwing extremist 20 year old running over a bunch of lefty radicals on Saturday in Charlottesville has taken this country beyond satire. We are on the brink of something very dangerous.

Here was Trump's initial statement:

“We condemn in the strongest possible terms this egregious display of hatred, bigotry, and violence on many sides — on many sides,”

When I heard this on Saturday I was still waiting for news about who was responsible for the so-called attack. I thought this was a very reasonable, responsible comment from Trump. Unlike Barack Obama, who frequently jumped to incorrect conclusions (condemning police in Cambridge, Massachusetts, for instance), Trump was very clear about condemning hatred, bigotry and violence.

Then ensuing firestorm of faux outraged, especially from despicable pols like Mitt Romney, John Kasich and Marco Rubio, forced me to go back and listen again to what Trump said. Trump was (and is) being accused of embracing the KKK and neo-Nazis. What the hell?

Various other Republican senators also criticized Trump, including Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), second ranking Senate Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

I have one phrase fro these Republican hypocrites--Go Have Sexual Congress with yourself. I challenge anyone to provide me with a statement, written or verbal, where Donald Trump embraces racism, anti-semitism or radical right ideology. Just one damn quote. I dare you.

We can point to several failure on the part of Trump's communications team over the last eight months, but I can empathize with their confusion over the claims that Trump was going soft on extremism. On Monday Trump made and even stronger statement:

"Racism is evil," the president said, "and anyone who causes violence in its name are criminals and thugs, including the KKK, neo-Nazis, white supremacists and other hate groups that are repugnant to everything we hold dear as Americans." 

Still not good enough for those bent on destroying Donald Trump. When I hear so-called political and business leaders describe this as "an ambiguous" statement I then realize that this is not a fair game. This is political propaganda at its worst. But it ain't the President who is doing the propaganda. The media and political and business elite have banded together to push a lie.

But that is not all. Creeping out of the sewers are the radical ideologues keen on eradicating any vestige of American history. These are rebels keen on reinventing the past. The calls to erase all statues associated with anyone who fought for the Confederacy or was a slave owner has gone beyond the absurd. We now are confronting a rabble possessed of a mindset akin to the blood lust of the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia and the fanaticism of ISIS jihadis, who destroyed ancient historical monuments because they claimed those pieces of stone were idols. These are radicals convinced in their truth and their vision who are willing to do whatever it takes to promote their twisted vision of perfection.

These crazies, I believe, are overplaying their hand. Enough Americans understand and grasp how bizarre and unfair their rantings are and will in turn start pushing back. There is a danger here, however. The Americans being labeled as racists are more likely to own guns than those lefty cretins who arrogantly insist that Trump supporters are in-bred morons. That is a recipe for real conflict and is the kind of tension that triggered the Civil War of 1860.

Important to remember, however, that the crazed kid mowing down lefties on Saturday was not an organized effort. Just compare the lethality achieved today in Barcelona, Spain by a committed jihadi. He left at least 13 dead and more than a 100 wounded. The right wing nut in Charlottesville only killed one and his effort was not part of an organized plan to wreak mayhem.

There may be a silver lining in all of this for Donald Trump. He now will have no illusion about who his enemies are. They have jumped out of the closet and revealed themselves. This information in the hands of a Machiavellian ruler would be potent. Remains to be seen if Donald Trump actually knows how to play such a game or is just a pretender.

HARPER: IDENTITY POLITICS--WE ALL LOSE

(Seattle Antifa)

I vividly recall staying up past 1 AM on election night 2016, watching CNN, as it became clear that Donald Trump had been elected the next President of the United States.  News anchor Dana Bash was beside herself at the outcome, and at one point, in a fit of honesty, she exclaimed, "This means the end of identity politics."  Well, yes, but a deep ideology like identity politics does not die a quiet and sober death.  Last weekend in Charlottesville, Virginia, we saw identity politics playing out--violently. Whether it was the white protesters who formed part of the original crowd, or the black and "antifa" protesters who formed part of the counter-demonstration, we witnessed a clash of identities.

President Trump was not wrong when he said that there were violent protesters on both sides of the clash, and that many of the protesters were not there to show their racism, but to protest the tearing down of a statue of a figure in American history who cannot be airbrushed out of our nation's story.  Is the next step to burn down the campus of Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Virginia, because it was co-named after Robert E. Lee after the Civil War?

Watching the tirades on MSNBC and other news outlets over the past 48 hours, I can't help but lament how twisted our public discourse has become.  Clearly some of the counter-demonstrators were part of the very same "antifa" apparatus that got very different news coverage when they torched and trashed Seattle a number of years back in protest at a WTO meeting.  This time around, they were defended by the icons of media, who denounced any thought that there was "moral equivalence" between their violence and the violence of the hardcore white racists who made up part of the protesters on UVA campus.

There is a difference between legitimate civil rights struggles, which at times led to violence, and the reverse racism that I see and hear far too often out of the Black Lives Matter people.  And there is the matter of George Soros spending millions of dollars to help launch that movement after Ferguson.  Soros Money Matters too.  He is not a benign figure but a promoter of division and discord.  I sat in a room when he complained bitterly, with racist overtones, during a meeting of the Drug Policy Foundation years ago, that there were not black voices promoting the legalization of crack cocaine, part of his libertine agenda.  Is he a friend of the black community?  I don't think so.

Identity politics is a disease.  It divides people and makes them into the sum of their self-defined attributes.  Far from bringing about the end of identity politics, the Trump election has hardened the fault lines, whether on Capitol Hill or on the streets of American cities.

Guam rejoices!

"North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reviewed his military's plans to rain "an enveloping fire" around the U.S. territory of Guam — but opted not to fire missiles at this time, according to state media. Despite the stand-down, some Guamanians were alarmed after two radio stations aired an erroneous emergency alert Tuesday.

Kim visited the Korean People's Army as the self-imposed mid-August deadline for a missile demonstration approached, the Korean Central News Agency reports. But after hearing the plan and considering it, Kim opted not to give the order to launch missiles, but instead "would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees," the report says."  NPR

---------------

It was not an IO.  It was real and Trump/Mattis won.  The fat kid blinked.  pl

 

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/15/543603140/north-korea-says-it-wont-fire-missiles-at-guam-after-all

 

Large numbers of Syrians are returning home.

" According to a study by the International Organization for Migration (a United Nations body), some 602,759 displaced Syrians have been returned to their homes of which about two-thirds of that number specifically resettled in Aleppo Governorate.

"The period of time the study accounts for is from January to June 2017.   Of the 602,759 returned Syrians, approximately 84 percent were internally displaced and the remaining sixteen percent were displaced in Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Jordan. 

The study found that two of the biggest regions that had seen the resettlement of displaced Syrians were the provinces of Aleppo and Hama in which 405,420 and 75,209 people (respectively) were returned.

Furthermore, regarding Aleppo Governorate, the UN report specified that 97 percent of all returned people actually settled into their original homes. The remaining three percent were said to be renting, living in abandoned households or staying in informal refugee camps.

That study went on to clarify that, in the event, the housing conditions which Syrians have returned to are not perfect as general access to health services, clean water and food remains a problem in many areas."  AMN

----------------

Expect this to accelerate.  R+6 is rapidly gaining ground all over the country except in Idlib Province west of Aleppo city.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/600000-syrians-return-home-majority-aleppo/

Charlottesville - 1 by cvillereader

"The last time I checked, the Virginia State Police and the Virginia National Guard are not small time operations. Both of them were on the scene and did nothing.

And McAuliffe is on the record saying that the State had planned for months for this, and that he thought the policing of the protests was a success.

Charlottesville City Council is up to their necks in this, and is dominated by Leftists. This includes the mayor, who was educated at Berkeley, teaches at UVa, and has long and deep connections with McAuliffe.

They used this event as a way to score political points. Disgraceful.

I will also point out that long after the police broke up the rally, and most of Unite the Right group had departed, they allowed Antifa and their supporters to roam the sidewalks and streets of downtown Charlottesville armed with bats and pepper spray.

There is no explaining this away, because the internet is filled with videos that show this."  cvillereader

----------------

Perhaps "cvillereader" could explain to us what polling and public opinion in Charlottesville has been with regard to the statue and the mayor/city council.  pl

Conflicts by Richard Sale

                                           

(The scene: A newsroom the morning after a riot where police beat and tear-gassed protestors, vacationers and civilians, causing severe injuries to many. The chief characters are photographers and staff. The speaker is Phil Hammond, in his late fifties who has reported on Chicago for decades. The listeners are worn out, depleted, almost inert from fatigue. I wrote this yesterday.)

----------------- 

  “No, no, no, no, no,” said Hammond.

“Phil…” Edie said, keeping herself under control.

“No, no, no, no, no, absolutely not. Do you really think it’s that simple? Shit, you’re a reporter, for God’s sake.”

“Phil…”

“For God’s sake.”

“Phil…”

“People, do you hear me? People...People are the only things that matter, the only things that count, the only things worth getting excited about. People. Their welfare, their safety, their needs, their predicaments, and their souls.” He vehemently shook his head. “No, no, no, no, no, no...”

Hammond was an oddity. He had once taught at a private school, had two years at the University of Chicago, studying theology. His chief ambition was to become a Navy chaplain. But he had a bad heart and he drank too much, and ended up as a reporter in Chicago He knew the city inside and out.

“Phil. Could I get a word in here. PHIL?”

“No!”

“Come on, Phil...” said someone.

“I’m amazed,” Phil said.

“What’s so bad about that?” Macklin said.

“Because you keep saying cops. Cops; so what, cops? I mean, what does it mean, cops? Huh? Being cop, does it really mean they are all slabs of irredeemable evil? The embodiment of all that is dark and wicked in the human predicament? Is that what you’re saying?”

“Hey, Phil, Jesus, come on,” Gomel said. “No one is saying that.”

“Or is Daley? Or Johnson? Is that what you’re saying? Because that’s bullshit.”

“What’s bullshit?”

“Because it’s just a word.”

“What’s just a word?”

“Bullshit,” injected someone.

“Cops,” Hammond corrected. “Cops is just a word. It’s just a little batch of symbols on a page that stands for what? For just so many people. That’s all. Just a bunch of people. Just like you. And like me. Or do you think they’re constructed of an entirely different and more inferior stuff than us?”

“Oh, please,” said Jennifer, rolling her eyes up in her head. She wasn’t alone. There were additional impatient groans and other rude repudiations. Hammond wasn’t fazed in the least. “Just like yourselves.” he insisted. Then he fell still and shook his head in wonderment. “I mean, that’s the whole problem. That is exactly the whole problem....”

Hammond had a cup of steaming coffee in his speckled hand. They were all indolently occupying chairs, sofas, or sitting round-shouldered on the edge of the low coffee table.

Crown gave a sudden great, gapping yawn. Crown waved his hands as if fending off flies in front of his face, defensive. “I’m tired. It wasn’t a criticism.”

Hammond grinned, holding his cup.

“Look, I wasn’t slandering them,” Edie said.

“Yeah, Phil, give us a break,” Gomel said. “What do you think? That we’re making last night up? Don’t you read the papers? Have you seen Fielding’s piece?”

“No, what’s it like?”

Will the US be solely a country for the antifa left?

 

In light of the media reaction to the abominable stupidity of the actions of various right wing fringe groups in Charlottesville I regretfully feel I must re-open SST for business so that this can be discussed.

The whole CNN "crew," John King, Jake Tapper, Fariid Zakariya and their colleagues elsewhere are virtually foaming at the mouth in a competition to be the most extreme, the most condemning, the most hostile toward traditional American culture.

The agitprop technique in the case of the Charlottesville violence is simple but seemingly universal in the left main stream media.  The nut-jobs who went to Charlottesville to "protect" the statue of a man who would not have wanted to be "protected" by them are implied to be representative of all Americans who do not wish to see a new, socialist, globalist paradigm for the US.

The intention of the antifa left and its Democratic Party and media wings seems clear.  It is to silence through shaming, ostracism, loss of income and perhaps eventually legally anyone who does not submit to be assimilated into a new collective consciousness in an America that believes itself to be a sinner country.  pl

A note on comments:  Criticism of US policy is acceptable on SST.  Condemnation of the US as a sinner nation is not and will not be published. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifa_(U.S.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alt-right

 

Vacation for all

There will be no guest author posts or comments here on SST until 1 September.  pl

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20170810

THE SANCTIONS. The hypocrisy is thick: NordStream 2 (257.a.9) is specifically targeted; damage to NASA (237) is carefully voided. (NASA needs the Russians to get to the ISS and to launch things but European allies can freeze in the dark. Take that, Europeans, it's for your own good! "You can’t... ask for a bigger U.S. military commitment... while... oppose nonmilitary coercive measures"). The effect of anti-Russia sanctions since 2014 is that Europe has likely suffered more than Russia and certainly more than the USA; Russia has used the sanctions (and its counter sanctions) to increase domestic production (see below) whereas Europe has just lost markets. Well, we'll find out whether Europe has the feet to stand on that Merkel thinks it has. Russia has many ways to respond and, as Jeffrey Carr has pointed out, Congress has shown it where to hit hardest. Another thing to find out is whether Moscow decides it's had enough – as Medvedev suggests – and that it's time to make its "partner" hurt. (Some responses: no more rocket engines, no overflights, no supply line to Afghanistan, no US NGOs, no Russian investments in USA, no accepting US dollars in trade. But Putin & Co will probably come up with something cleverer than anything I can think of). They will be a drag on Washington's foreign policy for decades: "never recognize" Crimea in Russia (257.a.3)? well, they're going to have to some time. I am collecting negative reactions on my site. They're another step on the downward trajectory of the USA: they will drive a wedge between Europe and the USA; push Russia closer to China; may even lead to a rapprochement between Europe and Russia. But short-sighted outbursts are to be expected in the final days I suppose: Congress' war with Trump displays a contemptuous indifference to its allies' interests. (Mercouris argues that Trump's signing statement hints at a Supreme Court challenge: very plausible given that there is nothing to the Russia collusion story – even the WaPo seems to be backing off – and that Trump will be able to appoint more SC judges.)

SANCTIONS EFFECT. Russian statistics tell us that the share of imports in the retail sector is 36%, the lowest since the 2008 crash. Food imports are down to 24% from 34% in 2014. The percentage of imports in various categories: cereals 0.2%; sausages 1.6%; flour 1.8%; poultry 4.1%; pork 8.3%. Gessen will be glad that cheese imports are 27.7%, but sad that they're down from 48.4%. Sanctions work: just not the way the US Congress thinks they do. Altogether, it's probably fair to say that Russia is now self-sufficient in food. And production is only going to become bigger: the potential of Russian agriculture has never been tapped; serfdom, the village mir and collectivisation were not very productive.

CORRUPTION. The trial of the former Minister of Economic Development has begun. He was caught red-handed taking a bribe they say. I believe he is the highest ranking official yet to be charged: some – Luzhkov and Serdyukov spring to mind – have been accused of things and been fired, but no charges laid. We are told that 45,000 people have been convicted of corruption crimes over the last three and a half years and about 350 officials have been fired this year and the same last year.

VILLAGE LIFE. Someone who often lives in the Russian countryside blasts another NYT-Russia-is-an-unchanging-nightmare piece. Agreement from an American happily living in a village.

PHOTO OP. Putin and Shoygu, alone but for photographers, go fishing in Tyva; they forget to pack shirts. Western media goes nuts. (DMail) (USA Today) (Daily B) (AP) (Fox) (Time) (Sky) (WaPo) (TorSun) (News.com.au) France 24) (Telegraph) (You look for the rest). Maybe he really is "the most powerful man in the world". Bare-chested Trudeau and Obama are ever so dreamy, but bare-chested Putin isn't: CrazyLand is bigger than I imagined. (Do you think Putin is messing with their minds?)

THE THREAT. Pew has an international survey out asking about leading security threats. The following NATO members name US power as a greater threat than Russian or Chinese: Canada, Germany, Greece, Spain and Turkey. USA is named first by 19 countries, China by 9, Russia by 7. This is a competition that the US has won every time out of the gate. And rising. Interesting, eh? And after all that propaganda, too. NATO StratCom needs more money!

UKRAINE. The disaster continues. In 2001 its population was 48.5 million. Latest official estimate is 42.5. Examination of various consumption statistics suggest that this estimate is too high. About 2.5 million are in Russia and another 1.5 million in Poland. At some point, for a country constructed out of bits and pieces of other states, depopulation will become geopolitically significant.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Hypocrisy and IC consensus

 

"North Korea’s longstanding assumption has been that the United States is too weak-willed to take on the exorbitant costs of war and that America will eventually acquiesce to a nuclear North Korea. President Trump’s statement that North Korea’s threats will be “met with fire and fury like the world has never seen,” however unorthodox and impolitic, conveys a clear rejection of Kim’s aims and the magnitude of the survival risk Kim runs if the United States refuses to accept nuclear vulnerability to Kim Jong Un.  

U.S. Defense Secretary James MattisJames Norman MattisTrump briefed on helicopter 'mishap' that left 3 Marines missingAir Force purchases bankrupt Russian firm's planes for Air Force OneDems to Mattis: Don't comply with Trump's 'unconstitutional' transgender banMORE clearly underscored those risks when he stated that “The DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down its pursuit of nuclear weapons” and that “The DPRK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people.”

North Korea clearly sees survival risk in bowing to U.S. pressure by returning to the path of denuclearization and perceives mutual vulnerability as the only viable path to regime survival. This is the path that North Korean diplomats point to when they argue that it was possible for the United States and the Soviet Union as nuclear-armed adversaries to pursue détente and normalize their relations even at the height of the Cold War.

But it is impossible to imagine that the United States will accept vulnerability to Kim Jong Un or suddenly appreciate North Korea’s strategic value and pursue a normal relationship with North Korea’s totalitarian regime. However much North Korea may yearn for the United States to treat it with the same geostrategic weight that motivated détente with the Soviet Union or normalization with China, it will not happen. Kim Jong Un’s weak hand is ultimately a losing hand, no matter how well played." The Hill

******

It was unclear from the Post report on Tuesday whether any of the other 17 U.S. intelligence agencies agreed with the DIA’s assessment, though the DIA report excerpt quoted by the Post did refer to the intelligence community as a whole.

“The [intelligence community] assesses North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery, to include delivery by ICBM-class missiles,” the DIA assessment said, according to the newspaper.

NBC’s report on Thursday says that other agencies, including the CIA and the Office of the Dan CoatsDan CoatsThe Hill's 12:30 ReportDOJ warns the media could be targeted in crackdown on leaksConway: Leaks of Trump's calls should have 'chilling effect'MORE, agree with the DIA's assessment.  The Hill

---------

 1- The judgment that North Korea now possesses miniaturized nuclear weapons is now a US IC consensus judgment.  Anyone who thinks that CIA likes agreeing with ANY DIA judgment knows nothing of the US intelligence community.

2.  The hypocrisy  of many of the comments on SST concerning this crisis is surprising to me even after 12 years of this,  The absurdity of thinking that all states are equal in weight and responsibility in the world is just foolish and ahistorical.   The deep anti-Americanism of many in the commentariat on SST is sad.  It is especially sad in being expressed by people whose countries have long been the beneficiaries of US protection.  It should be acceptable to the US that North Korea should "demonstrate" the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon to Guam?  How absurd!  Would those who think that so be accepting if the North Koreans demonstrated the same ability to deliver a warhead  into the English Channel, the North Sea or off the coast of British Columbia?

3.  I think not.  The countries so threatened would run to NATO and beg for US protection. 

4.  Ah, I forgot, the evilness of the US justifies anything.  pl

 

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/346045-opinion-any-vulnerability-to-north-korea-is-unacceptable

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/346060-cia-other-intelligence-agencies-agree-with-defense-assessment-on-north-korean

 

What is the North Korean Word for "Gulf of Tonkin?" by Publius Tacitus

The media drum beat portraying North Korea as a country in the hands of a "crazy", "insane" mad man is churning along at full speed. The messaging is so intense that even Helen Keller would see and hear it--we are going to war with North Korea. Whether or not Donald Trump and his team decide to actually push the button is a subject already addressed by Colonel Lang--(see,  Is the Korean war scare real?) 

What I want you to consider is the broader topic of how the media is being routinely used as medium for shaping and manipulating public opinion. The quantity of disinformation and propaganda flooding the internet, cable news and newspapers is akin to an avalanche in the Swiss Alps during the heaviest of winter snows. 

Consider the following demonstrably false statements that are widely accepted by the media and public as true:

Reviewing the Unthinkable

Yesterday I raised the question of the reality or lack of it of the present crisis in relations between North Korea and the US.   Since then various people have sought to convince me that the statements and actions of the two national leaders have little real meaning because they are both blowhards motivated by personal imperfections and domestic opinion.

There is also the belief in rationality argument in which it is said that Kim Chung Un must be a rational actor who knows that the US can simply turn the PDRK into a glassy place with grease deposits in spots.  I find this argument unconvincing having watched Mu'mar Qadhafi convince himself that the US was a paper tiger afraid of war and lacking the courage of the Libyan jamahiriyah  His belief proved unrealistic when bombs rained down on Benghazi and Libya (Operation El Dorado Canyon April -1986).

Delusions vary.  Saddam's pre-Gulf War nuclear weapons program was within a year or so of having a detonatable nuclear device when he invaded Kuwait.  I worked on both El Dorado Canyon and the problem of the behavior of Iraq before they invaded Kuwait.   It was generally accepted in US planning circles that if Saddam had waited until his first successful nuclear test, his position would have been greatly different in the extent of his vulnerability to US massive reactions to his invasion.  This would have been because in security dominated states like Libya and Iraq it is not possible to know WHAT ELSE you don't know about that these countries have in reserve that will affect the regional situation.

A further argument that is being made is that the armed forces of the US will not accept DJT's order to go to war.  I utterly reject that notion.  The president/CinC of the US has the constitutional and legal authority to order military action at any level that is needed to defend the US, its forces or its allies.  The notion that a silent coup has occurred in the Pentagon is simply absurd.

On these general bases I assert that war between the US/ROK and the PDRK is quite possible.  What would such a war be like?  I am quite sure that it would not be a war in which the US/ROK alliance sought to match the PDRK man for man, tank for tank, artillery piece for artillery piece.  In such a war the US/ROK side would be hopelessly outnumbered. 

Because of this obvious truth, think-tank discussions in recent months have been the scene for retired senior officer discussions of the feasibility and necessity of using tactical level yield nuclear weapons in a war with North Korea as assault breakers against North Korea as well as to badly damage their artillery and assault troops in the general area of the DMZ.  It was always expected that a NATO-Warsaw Pact war would produce a similar outcome.

Fall-0ut is the wind distributed debris and dust that a surface burst of a nuclear weapon excavates from the crater and throws up in the air to be distributed down wind from the target.  The dust is highly radioactive and has a very long half-life.  It poisons the ground wherever it falls making it uninhabitable in some cases for thousands of years. 

A high air burst in which the fireball does not touch the surface does not produce much in the way of fall-out.  Its effects are:

1 - Blast from the tremendous winds and overpressures produced,

2- Heat from the nuclear reaction.  This will burn anything on the ground beneath the fireball and for a considerable but varying distance.

3- Direct Radiation from the fireball.  This is enormously damaging to tissue but without prolonged contamination outside a small area. 

IMO the use of tactical nuclear weapons would be likely in such a war.

I in no way advocating such a war.  Analysis is not advocacy.

Some among you will say that the world no longer fear the US because we really ARE "paper tigers," hedonistically weak and without resolve.  If you think that you make the same mistake that the Japanese, Germans, Vietnamese, Libyans, North Koreans last time and Iraqis all made.  pl

Is the Korean war scare real?

 

1.  Someone released to the Washington Post yesterday a supposed IC majority approved national intelligence estimate that concludes the North Koreans  already have miniaturized nuclear warheads that can be fitted to some sort of delivery system.

2.  The UN Security Council voted unanimously this weekend to condemns North Korea for its nuclear weapons/delivery systems program.  China and Russia voted for the resolution which imposes additional restrictions on Chinese trade with North Korea.  The Chinese and Russians would not have voted thusly if they had not been shown some US intelligence containing evidence that North Korea is a menace to peace in the Far East.

3.  Fox News reports that US intelligence has told them that US spy satellites have shown in the last week that North Korea and uploaded Stormpetrel (nfi) anti-ship missiles to a Wonsan Class (nfi) missile patrol craft at a North Korean naval base on the eastern coast facing the Sea of Japan where numerous US naval units are positioned.

4.  DJT continues his barrage of tweets against North Korea threatening fire and brimstone from his lair in New Jersey (a disclosed location).  Is he really there?

5.  Sebastian Gorka (a Dr. Strangelove seem-alike) intones that DJT's actions and tweets will bring North Korea to its knees.

6.  Nikki Haley continues to wage diplomatic war against North Korea at the UN all the while looking fearful.

7. General (ret.) Jack Keane has the ear of DJT and has urged a decapitating strike against North Korea.  He is evidently oblivious of the difficulty of locating a single man target in a security state like North Korea.

--------------

All of this leads me to four possibilities:

a.  All of this is real and the US is being inexorably driven to war against North Korea by North Korean actions.

b.  Alternatively a massive Information Operation is underway by factions in the US government conditioning the US population and indeed the world to the inevitability of war brought on by some North Korean action.  An incident at sea where facts are difficult to check would do.

c.  The IO campaign may have as its goal the intimidation of the North Koreans. 

d.  These events are coincidences.

I will not go on at length about the terrible cost that the people of the Two Koreas and the US armed forces would pay in such a war,  These costs have been much written of. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/08/north-korea-is-fast-approaching-trumps-red-line/?utm_term=.faf80fb06a05

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_no-name%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar&tid=a_breakingnews&utm_term=.43b4fc65bfc2

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/world/asia/north-korea-sanctions-united-nations.html

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/07/us-spy-satellites-detect-north-korea-moving-anti-ship-cruise-missiles-to-patrol-boat.html

 

Open Thread - 7 August 2017

pl

The Rise of the Violent Muslim Brotherhood (by Mokhtar Awad) posted by The Virginian

 
“The stark discourse of The Jurisprudence of the Popular Resistance to the Coup is the result of an ongoing fundamental reorientation in Egyptian Islamism and specifically the Muslim Brotherhood. It is the consequence of the Muslim Brotherhood witnessing significant and dizzying changes, extreme repression, and both internal and outside pressure to articulate an Islamist methodology that can be relevant to its base.”

“Yet, as explained, not every Brother is completely on board with the new vision laid out by the new guard of the Muslim Brotherhood. Although they may agree with the premises of some of the arguments, they fundamentally disagree on the utility of violence in the current Egyptian context. Others who do so on personal and religious grounds may find some acts of violence allowed, but murder to be strictly prohibited unless in cases such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.”

"Although it is important to highlight that the views expressed in the book, and other radical documents, are not representative of the entire Muslim Brotherhood. It is also important not to dismiss that they are representative of at least one major legitimate faction of the group. This faction, to a considerable extent, is represented in the Muslim Brotherhood’s new guard, which as of December 2016, has claimed total leadership over the organization. The detractors of this wing dismiss these arguments, the book, the Sharia Committee, and deny any relationship to violence. Despite this, violence has nonetheless been committed by actors who appear to be clearly inspired by this Brotherhood faction and it remains to be seen which faction has more supporters inside Egypt."

“Moreover, as the book’s own language shows, the radical arguments made within it are not confined to Egypt. There is today a new generation of Muslim Brothers, both young and old, who see the utility in violence, support it, and even engage in it. The Egyptians among them are scattered outside Egypt in Turkey, Sudan, and beyond. Other Brothers and fellow travelers in Libya, Syria, Yemen, and the Gulf, have also been involved in either supporting or carrying out violence in recent years—even if this takes the form of rebel militias. The risk to Egypt is further radicalization and adoption of violence in the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood that could prove destabilizing if it is not checked by authorities. The risk to the region, and perhaps beyond, is that Salafi-Jihadi groups may no longer be the only Islamists with a monopoly over the use of violence to bring about the sought-after Islamist change.”

https://www.hudson.org/research/13787-the-rise-of-the-violent-muslim-brotherhood

************************

Regardless of any bias by the author, the article raises key questions around how the Ikhwan will evolve in Egypt and elsewhere. The insurgency in the Sinai and challenges the Egyptian military and police are having (plus the role of MB groups in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Tunisia, etc.) underscore the importance of the questions posed by the author.

What impact will the retrenchment of military rule in Egypt supported by Gulf Arab money have on the long term fortunes of the Brotherhood, and how will Ikhwan groups elsewhere look to shape the political (and security) landscape outside of Egypt?  The Virginian

Black Vultures came avisiting.

Around noon today I was out in the back garden.  I heard a lot of splashing about.  I looked up and saw three of these things taking turns in one of SWMBO's fountains.  They looked exactly like this photograph and were about two feet tall.  They observed me for a bit and then flew up to a fence near the fountain where they perched side by side and peered about.  They looked slightly confused.  The white legs are very distinctive.  My wife came out of the house to take pictures of them on the fence.  She approached to within ten feet before they became flustered and flew into a tall tree in the next dor neighbor's yard.  They sat in a row high up and squabbled with each other for a while before flying away.  They are clearly immature.

Twenty years ago I had an office on the tope floor of an office building in Clarendon (Arlington).  A pair of big turkey vultures used the roof as a perch and observation post to survey the streets. They had red heads and were about four feet tall.  I often tapped on the plate glass wall that looked out on the sloping metal roof.  When I did that one would sidle up to the glass and peer in at me.  These are not pretty birds.  pl

ESTABLISHMENT GANG UP AGAINST TRUMP INTENSIFIES by Harper

 

 

Last week, Politico and other "news" outlets reported that President Trump got into a brawl with his military advisers over the future of American involvement in Afghanistan.  To have read the coverage, one would have thought that the President had a mental meltdown and rejected the sage advise of his Secretary of Defense, National Security Adviser and other security aides.  However, in talking with a friend who was privy to that meeting, the President asked the kind of probative questions that citizens expect of their elected leader, when considering issues of war and peace.  As I heard it, Trump was unhappy with the options he was given, because they represented "more of the same" plans that have failed for the last 16 years.  "If any other President had that same discussion, he or she would have been praised for doing the right thing.  Because it was Trump, he was lambasted." 

Well, it becomes more and more obvious by the day that the Borg has decided that Trump is unacceptable--American voters aside.  There is now an overt merger of the neocons and the humanitarian interventionists.  Call it Barack Obama marries Dick Cheney.  That's what is happening.  The German Marshall Fund has founded a new project called the Alliance for Securing Democracy, which looks to be a replacement for the new defunct Foreign Policy Initiative, which in turn replaced the Bush-Cheney era Project for a New American Century.  The Alliance is co-chaired by Laura Rosenberger, who was a leading foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign and Jamie Fly, who headed FPI before it went to ground recently.   The other members of the Alliance include David Kramer, former McCain Institute director, who shopped the Christopher Steele dossier on Trump's alleged Russian indiscretions to the FBI and the media, Bill Kristol, and Obama's ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. 

One of the hubs of the "Trump as Russian Agent" meme is the George Soros-funded Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, which is also funded by the US Government, according to Robert Parry.  That Soros outfit was a prime source for hedge fund manager Bill Browder, who has been recently trotted out to testify in Congress on the Trump-Russia collusion. 

Harvey of Iraq - his next job?

A future ambassador in Baghdad?  Why not?  Why should Harvey of Iraq not guide US policy in the land he made his second home?  He assured the world in his valedictory statement in leaving the NSC that he would continue to serve America in important ways. His record in Iraq speaks for itself.  Few other ajnabi men were able to prowl at the height of the war across jihadi infested territory seeking the "pulse" of the country so as to make clear the situation for his friend and mentor, America's General, David Petraeus.   And all that was accomplished while he supposedly was assigned to a desk bound analyst's job at Camp Victory FOB at the Baghdad Airport.  What a "cover" that was!  His inability to speak Arabic undoubtedly contributed to the solidity of his disguises.  Perhaps he claimed to be a mute Arab as did Harry Faversham in the Victorian novel, "The Four Feathers."

IMO Harvey would be easily confirmed by the present Congress.  What a splendid idea!  (irony alert)  pl

http://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-enemies-list-drove-mcmasters-bannon-feud

Yet another leak, this time most likely from the WH.

 "President Trump engaged in contentious telephone calls with the leaders of Mexico and Australia in his early days in office, pressing them to make concessions to satisfy his own domestic political needs in exchanges so sharp that he said talking to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was more pleasant.

Transcripts of his calls with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia confirm previous news reports of tension during the conversations in January, just a week after Mr. Trump’s inauguration, and show a new president eager to fulfill campaign promises while developing relationships with foreign counterparts.

The transcripts, assembled from the notes of aides listening to the calls, were obtained by The Washington Post, which posted them online on Thursday morning."  Peter Baker in the NY Times

-------------

 These transcripts were written by people IN the Trump White House.  Such documents would not have been injected into the Intelligence Community information "blood stream."  The president's private correspondence is not given to intelligence agencies.   It is possible that the secretaries of cabinet departments would have been given such transcripts.  The president's privacy is so carefully guarded that such dissemination would have been very limited in spite of the obvious truth that the conversation was unclassified. 

Sooo, who are left as probably sources for the Washington Post reports?  Clearly, attention should be focused on White House staff  members in the NSC area. 

Would it be too much to think that those who have recently been fired might be the culprits?

This is not rocket Science, folks.  pl  

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/03/us/politics/trump-calls-mexico-australia.html

A Soldier’s Tour of Syria - TTG

Overall things are going quite well for the R+6. Although the IS and other jihadi forces are still capable of staging limited tactical offensive operations, any gains they make are short lived.

In southwest Raqqa governorate, General Suheil al-Hassan has stated that his Tiger Forces will be in Deir Ezzor by the beginning of September. They are battling for several towns along the Euphrates along with local tribal forces and are aiming to soon take Ma’adan. A few days ago IS launched a counterattack in this area preceded by ten plus VBIED attacks. Suheil and his allies suffered close to forty dead and fifty wounded, but by the end of the day they retook what little ground they lost and continued the advance. A Tiger Force commander described Jihadi losses thusly, “ISIS losses are folds of ours.”

This Tiger Force offensive is also widening the front away from the Euphrates and now occupies a growing section of the Raqqa-Deir Ezzor border. They are poised to attack at both Ma’adan and at the critical road junction in the Bishri Triangle.

Further west a new R+6 offensive is taking place south of Ithriyah. The Cheetah Group of the Tiger Forces has been redeployed from the southeast Raqqa front to serve as the core of this new offensive along with Liwaa Al-Quds, Qalamoun Shield, the 11th Tank Division and elements of the NDF and SSNP. The goal of this offensive is to drive south towards Suknah to isolate the jihadis entrenched in the Uqayribat region in eastern Hama. These jihadists are at the western end of a large bulge in central Syria aimed at Homs and Hama. A quick glance at the above map shows the significance of this bulge. The R+6 has also launched an offensive from Salamiyah towards Uqayribat.

I assess the plan is to reduce the Uqayribat bulge before the Tiger Forces offensive from southwest Raqqa drives to Deir Ezzor. The dual offensive drives into the bulge will either force the jihadis to die in place, pull back towards the Euphrates or be fixed in place to the point they are incapable of any offensive action. The southwest Raqqa offensive will simultaneously take Ma’adan and the Bishri Triangle. They will then be in position to launch a wide offensive from Ma’adan to Deir Ezzor and from the Bishri Triangle to Ash Sholah and on to Deir Ezzor once the Uqayribat bulge is addressed.

The New York Times Pushes Propaganda War Against Russia by Publius Tacitus

 

There is no longer any doubt that the New York Times is nothing more than a willing cog in the establishment war machine and is happy to serve as a propaganda platform. While there are times that newspapers and electronic media outlets are unwitting dupes for propaganda, the article penned by  MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT (published on 31 July 2017) is the work of willing puppets masquerading as journalists:

Russia’s Military Drills Near NATO Border Raise Fears of Aggression

This screed starts with this piece of artful dishonesty:

Russia is preparing to send as many as 100,000 troops to the eastern edge of NATO territory at the end of the summer, one of the biggest steps yet in the military buildup undertaken by President Vladimir V. Putin and an exercise in intimidation that recalls the most ominous days of the Cold War.

Since when is it an act of "aggression" for a country--Russia in this case--to conduct military exercises in its own territory? Gordon and Schmitt also conveniently omit the facts that the United States has been engaged in a variety of military exercises on the border of Russia for the last year. Yet, rather than acknowledge that truth, Gordon and Schmitt push the lie that this is an unprovoked action by a militaristic Russia hell bent on conquering the world. 

How else is one to interpret the following quotes:

The military exercise . . . .is part of a larger effort by Mr. Putin to shore up Russia’s military prowess, and comes against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive Russia. Beyond Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election in support of the Trump campaign, which has seized attention in the United States, its military has in recent years deployed forces to Syria, seized Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine, rattled the Baltic States with snap exercises and buzzed NATO planes and ships. . . .

“There is only one reason you would create a Guards Tank Army, and that is as an offensive striking force,” General Hodges said. “This is not something for homeland security. That does not mean that they are automatically going to do it, but in terms of intimidation it is a means of putting pressure on allies.”

If you read only this article you would be excused for assuming that Russia is on the prowl for no good reason. Fortunately, our media is not totally subservient to the war machine. NPR reported last week that the United States is actually carrying out the largest military operations on Russia's border in 27 years:

The U.S. and NATO are staging their largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War, and they're doing it in countries of 3 former members of the Warsaw Pact: Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary

DAVID WELNA, BYLINE: Yes, I did. This is all part of what's been called the European Deterrence Initiative, and it's a reinforcement of U.S. forces that had been depleted in Eastern Europe before Russia annexed Crimea three years ago. And as part of this sort of hardening of the U.S. presence here, there was an armored combat brigade team of about 4,000 Army troops from Fort Carson, Colo., that arrived here in Eastern Europe early this year. And they're here in Romania, and they're taking part in military exercises along with about 20,000 other troops.

On Saturday, I was in the Carpathian Mountains, and I watched a pretty impressive live fire, land and air assault there on an imagined enemy. And then yesterday, along the banks of the Danube River here, there was another assault staged to retake the other side of the river from another imagined enemy.

GREENE: You keep saying imagined enemy. Who is the imagined enemy?

WELNA: Well, no doubt it's Russia. And, you know, while this wasn't really a D-Day invasion along the Danube - there was no fire return from the other side - there was a lot of sound and fury. And here's a bit of what it sounded like.

The US military exercise is dubbed Saber Guardian:

Exercise Saber Guardian 17 is a U.S. European Command, U.S. Army Europe-led annual exercise taking place in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria in the summer of 2017. This exercise involves more than 25,000 service members from over 20 ally and partner nations. The largest of the Black Sea Region exercises, Saber Guardian 17 is a premier training event for U.S. Army Europe and participating nations that will build readiness and improve interoperability under a unified command, executing a full range of military missions to support the security and stability of the Black Sea Region. It is deterrence in action.

Some of the more notable aspects of SG17 include: the massing of 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division (3/4ID) from several locations across the Operation Atlantic Resolve area of operation to the exercise joint operations area (JOA) in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria; and the movement of 2nd Cavalry Regiment (2CR) from Vilseck, Germany, to numerous locations throughout the JOA.

But that's not all. The United States also has been busy in the Baltics in early June 2017:

The U.S.'s European Command, which is based in Germany, said Thursday it had deployed an unspecified number of F-16 Fighting Falcons from Aviano Air Base in Italy to the Krzesiny Air Base in Poland in support of Baltic Operations (BALTOPS) and Saber Strike, two massive annual drills intended to boost the U.S.'s military presence in Europe and to support regional allies. European Command's statement came a day after it said a number of B-1B Lancers had been sent from Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota to join three B-52H Stratofortresses at the Royal Air Force base in Fairford, U.K. Meanwhile, 800 U.S. airmen in Europe were poised to train with NATO allies this month as the Western military alliance escalates its rivalry with Russia.

And there was US activity in Poland in January:

U.S. troops arrived in the small town of Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland, as part of the largest armed military brigade deployed in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

The U.S. troops, along with 53 track vehicles, including the M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer, reached Poland after a three-day journey through Germany. The show of force falls under Operation Atlantic Resolve, designed to show the United States' commitment to its European allies in the face of what NATO sees as Russian aggression.

This is not a comprehensive list. If you take time to do further research you will discover that the United States military in tandem with other countries has carried out several military exercises from the Black Sea in the south, all along the western border of Russia and in the Baltic Sea in the north. 

If you are Russia and you are witnessing repeated deployments of U.S. infantry, armor, air and naval units on the frontier that produced that last military invasion of Russia (which left at least 20 million dead) would you sit back and do nothing?

What would the United States do if Russia managed to convince Mexico to sign a mutual defense treaty and then proceeded to conduct tank and military air exercises along our southern border? Would we do nothing?

Gordon and Schmitt are an embarrassment to the profession of journalism. Rather than actually report facts and place them in their proper context, they chose instead to push lies as truth and try to help shape public opinion into believing that Russia poses an imminent threat to the west.

One other point worth remembering--Russia spends $60 billion annually on defense spending while the United States is slated for $650 billion. How much is the US spending on just EUCOM exercises targeted at Russia? Sadly, there is bipartisan stupidity and ignorance when it comes to the issue of properly assessing Russia and the threat it does (or does not) pose to the United States. My cynical conclusion is that as long as Russia is portrayed as the great Red menace bent on world domination we can justify spending $650 billion dollars to thwart an invasion that is not coming.