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27 July 2017

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Babak Makkinejad

I think Iranian leaders should try to understand contemporary Russia as a new country since she is neither USSR nor the Russian Empire which gobbled up big chunks of Iranian territory (whose inhabitants, since the disintegration of USSR are not exhibiting any desire to re-join Iran.)

Oilman2

IMO, the simple fact that congress and the president are moving in lock-step with this bill indicates an extreme amount of hubris and some serious short-term thinking. With the entire Russia thing occupying the country for the last 6 months, there has yet to surface anything resembling proof - said proof would have been plastered all over every media outlet.

I have no idea what they are thinking, but as leaky as DC is, anything that would support these actions would have been hauled out to bolster said actions. Yet we have nothing but innuendo and speculation.

My guess is that control of oil and gas resources features in everything with respect to Syria (Leviathan), Venezuela
(Guyana Field dispute-Exxonmobil), Iran (Pars Field) and trying to kneecap Russian control of natgas (2 birds - 1 stone).

My reasoning is simple - shale oil and shale gas are not economically sustainable without much higher prices, and those higher prices were a key reason for the economic problems of 2008. So if shale oil/gas aren't sustainable reserves, then the US needs others. KSA is in more severe production decline than admitted, or there would never have been discussion of public offering for ARAMCO.

When you only have a hammer, screwdriver and 10mm wrench - then everything looks like a nail (regime change), screw (sanctions) or a 10mm nut (invasion by proxy or otherwise).

Dislike of others internal policies is not the issue - we have propped up and supported many dictators and evil regimes - the why is nearly always about resource control or monetary control.

From where I sit in the oil patch, anyway...

What's your take, Col. Lang?

Mikey

IMO, coal, oil and natural gas are strategic natural resources whose exportation should be tightly controlled.

Anna

According to the linked article, Alperovitch "was born in 1980 in Moscow:" http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a49902/the-russian-emigre-leading-the-fight-to-protect-america/
His father, despite being a Jew (see the multitude of noisy articles about the alleged antisemitism in Russia) has received a Soviet education in nuclear physics.
At some point in his life, Alperovitch has become an FBI asset: "To better understand his adversaries, Alperovitch posed as a Russian gangster on spam discussion forums, an experience he wrote up in a series of reports. One day he returned from lunch to a voice mail telling him to call the FBI immediately. .. As it happened, the bureau was interested in his work." This explains Alperovitch employment with the Atlantic Council and his positioning in the "Russians hacking" case. Some Russian Jews are notoriously russophobic; perhaps the "Russian hacking" story, and specifically the involvement of Alperovitch in the "slow coup d'etat" experienced by the U.S. right now, would become one day a case study for the future intelligence specialists

Anna

"Often, the Third Law is not a part of world-view of many."
Newton's Third Law: "action and reaction are equal and opposite."
Time for the neocons to learn the fundamentals.

aleksandar

You can hardly break Russia's finance as Russia has 0 debt.
Anyways,Russia has already managed to get rid of $, China too.
China is buying everything possible in europe, not far from buying Real Madrid or Turin Juventus ! :)
Due to the last sanction law, Europe will follow, nolens volens.
Dollar hegemony will collapse, it's just a matter of time.

LeaNder

As far as i can understand Iran's only strategic allies are the Shia communities in MENA.

Kooshy, could you elaborate?

Would you and/or Babak, if he is around, explain to me, why an alignment (wrong term?, no political scientist) based on religion makes strategic sense Iran. More sense then whatever temporary, tactical alliances?

*****

Besides, somewhat assuming that you also know the feelings of people on the ground via relatives, would that be also the position in both basic political camps in Iran? Those things are vaguely on my mind here:

a) june 2017 Tehran ISIS attacks

b) Rohani's statement post re-election that were challenged by Naser Makarem Shirazi. In nutshell: both relying on Ali. But took different positions about who decides, God or the people who voted?

c) which communities would that be, and what could be the strategic aim?

aleksandar

Kooshy
When I was working in Iran cell, long time ago, we were surprised about a comment made in 1981 or 1982 ( sorry not remenber precisely) by a high Iranian official during an interview.
He said : " We Iranians will someday control Medina and Mecqua ".
Journalist was completely upset.
And he add : " It will take time, maybe 200 or 400 years, but, we Iranians will someday control Medina and Mecqua
Conclusion : our way of thinking, and note that I include myself, is somewhat irrelevant about Iran, and probably the entire ME

aleksandar

Question: Do Trump have constitutionals rights to say : Ok, it's a new law, a new start that change everything, no veto but before I lift all previous sanctions ?

Lyttenburgh

1) The arrest of the entire Royal family and "duly abdicated ex-Czar" had been carried out by the orders of the Provisional Government. Their relocation (with the ultimate destination being Yekaterinburg) also happened by the orders of the Provisional Government. It was the head of the Provisional Government Kerensky, who absolutely arbitrary proclaimed Russia a republic, not even waiting for the calling of the Constitutional Assembly, which would have the power to determine the form of rule for the country.

2) After the October Revolution the power had been taken by the ruling coalition of the Bolsheviks, Left eSeRs, anarcho-communists and anarcho-syndicalists. The power (all of it) on the local level belonged to the Councils (Soviets). In Moscow and Petrograd Bolsheviks dominated the Soviets, in the provinces situation was different. To show what the “All Power to the Soviets!” slogan entails – the initial decision to create the Worker-Peasant Red Army belonged to the local Soviet of the Vyborg’s side in Petrograd, and other Soviets only approved it later. The Soviet had the power to appoint and dismiss local bureaucrats, was responsible for the administrative and political situation in their locality, etc. The dictatorship of the proletariat as they saw it.

3) The fate of the former Royal family was in the hands of the Ural Soviet. There dominated Left eSeRs, plus in their Presidium there were several so-called “Left Bolsheviks”, an informal radical splinter group from the main party. Left Bolsheviks were against the Brest treaty, they were the most active proponents of the world Revolution here and now, for the immediate abolition of money, etc. The most famous of them was comrade Bukharin. Of the “Leninets” Boksheviks in Uralsoviet was, probably, only Voykov.

4) The execution of the former Royal family happened on the backdrop of several events. In July 1918 there was a failed Left eSeRs revolt, who were initially supported by some of the Left Bolsheviks. In the course of that, they assassinated the German ambassador, took Dziershinsky hostage and captured several areas in Moscow – they were eventually suppressed. Meanwhile, happens the Yaroslavl revolt, supported by the Right eSeRs (and greatly inspired by the Terrorist #2 of the Russian Empire Boris Savinkov). There, after toppling local Soviets in Volga region, all their members were immediately extra judicially executed by the Whites.

5) Thus, largely autonomous and possessing of the all power on the local level Ural’s Soviet (consisting mainly of the ideological enemies of the Bolsheviks in the mainland Russia), feeling itself encircled on all fronts, decided to execute the former Royal family. Maybe it would be better if the Czar would be judged by the panel of judges. It would certainly would be better to leave out his immediate family and to totally leave out peasants. We are not dealing with maybes. Did

6) You are asking:

“Was the long-since duly-abdicated ex-Czar Nicholas II charged and tried and convicted in a Court of Law for an established and recognized Capital Crime by an established and recognized Court and Legal System?”

No, he wasn’t. Your very formula of what makes up the “fair” court is nice sounding – for bourgeoisie-democratic country. Not for the Soviet Union. And who says that the bourgeoisie-democratic is a priori the best and the fairest in world and others should be compared to it as if it was some sort of paragon?

The basis of the post October Revolutionary justice was that it becomes the prerogative of the Soviets. Therefore this makes them some sort of the “established Court of Law”, only in the Revolutionary meaning (when the source of the Justice becomes the Revolutionary People, who exercises its will via people’s Soviets), not the old-Regime one (where the sole source of the Justice is the Monarch).

For you this might not be enough due to your ideological worldview. In that case – can’t help you.

jld

So... If I understand correctly, if you take care to declare yourself as the sole legitimate authority you can thereafter decide about "legality" as you please and proceed with executions or whatever other use of force in perfect compliance with the rule of law?

Lurker

Iranians are pragmatic. Their tactical alliance is with North Korea (missile and nuclear R&D) and (Sunni) Turkey against the Kurds backed by the USA led coalition. Iran's future is in: the Caspian basin, Silk Roads, India vis a vis Sunni Pakistan and to jointly develop the NG business with Sunni sheikdom of Qatar. Strategic goals shared with Russia and China are: multipolarity, opposition to balkanization, color revolutions, US dollar hegemony, LGBQT agenda, Rothschild control of Central Banks.

Babak Makkinejad

The West & her temporary allies made that so - by making an adjudication among Muslim sects as whom they preferred. This adjudication predated Islamic Revolution in Iran - the utter reluctance of US Government to touch Nabih Berri even with a ten-foot pole.

Once the Iranian Revolution occurred and the reaction against US in Iran began, different states reacted largely negatively to it - which meant the antagonism could no longer be confined to politics alone.

Lacking the strategic preponderance of NATO, or USSR/Russia or China, Iranians fell back on whatever tools were left to them to use. Their antagonists, on the other hand, seemed to have a tendency to pick on the Party of Ali across the Muslim World, breathing new life into it - as it where.

So I ask you why Denmark is the enemy of the Party of Ali? Or Germany? Or Spain?

Why Deobandis are friends of the United Kingdom?

And if you do not know the answers, then you have not been paying attention.

Lastly, per the article below, Cannaites are related by blood to the ancient people of the Iranian plateau.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/ancient-dna-counters-biblical-account-mysterious-canaanites

So, here we go again, Cannanites against Israelis...

Babak Makkinejad

You are missing an important element - the War with Iraq. Iraq's war effort against Iran were supported to the hilt by Arabs of Persian Gulf, by USSR, by US, by France, by Holland (chemical weapons), by Germany, by the Vatican.

You cannot understand why the Iranians behave the way they do without reference to the Iran-Iraq War.

Kooshy

IMO, real lasting geostrategic alliances, beside the security and economic elements will also need to have a good understanding / closeness of ideological and cultural behavior between the allies. IMO, Iran and Russia don’t’ share the ideological and cultural elements of a lasting alliance that makes their alliance tactical, but Iran and all Shia communities surrounded by the Sunnis do. An example is the Five Eyes an unwritten alliance? Security is based on blood culture etc. Or NATO, US and European states not only share security and economy for security but they also are culturally and religiously close to each other, except for Turkey, which was tactically fine and working as long as USSR was around, but now that USSR is no longer a threat Turkey and allies don’t think the fit is all that solid, they have their differences (lack of trust?) mostly based on religion and culture.

Kooshy

On -b it is usual for westerners not to understand Iran and Islamic Republic. IMO to understand Iranian mentality ( deeply cultural formulated) , the revolution and the consequence of it the Islamic republic. one easy 1st step is to understand in Iranian life, culture, religion and politics are of the same and intertwined. In that context Mr Shirazi a grand ayatollah will say this was a god will and that's why is done (like my grandma use to say) and Mr Ruhani although a clergy he is a statesman just got elected by popular vote will say it was you the people who got me here (after you understood what god wanted). They both are saying the same thing in the context of their positions and jobs. Like "objects on the rear mirror are closer to what they appear.

Kooshy

Babak S300 and Busher didn't happen during the Soviets or imperial Russia.

J

Our U.S. Congress has become nothing more than petulant spoiled brats who deserve prison cells for fraud, fraud committed against our U.S. Constitution, fraud against our Bill of Rights, fraud against the well-being of the Republic, fraud of taxpayer dollars on wasted time and energy that are not being utilized for the public good, fraud against every citizen as the Congress membership cares more about their petty power games of their respective 'party' than the well being of the citizenry and their protections and betterment.

Don't they get it? That today's Russian Federation is NOT the former Soviet Union? Don't they get it? That Putin although he is former KGB, is a Nationalist, NOT a Communist! That Putin has shown pro-West in his views (if you listen to him), and for that has been lambasted by the Russian Communist Party that calls him every derogatory name in the book. The Russian Communist caricature Putin in a Nazi costume because he wants normalized relations with D.C.. Now where have we seen this type of caricaurization? Hmm it appears to mirror the D.C. nitwits (Republican, RINO, Democrats) who shudder at the thought that Trump sees normalized relations with Russia is in BOTH nation's interests (spelled U.S.). The only reason that Congress is acting this way against Russia is the big money (weapons makers, private military and Intelligence corporations (spelled Mercenaries)) that would stand to loose if there were ever normalization and even future alliance between U.S. and Russia. Congress thinks big money is more important that the good of the nation and its fundamental national security (Russian security runs through U.S., and U.S. security runs through Russia.)

I for one am tired of the Congress nitwit behavior, if they won't do the people business, then lock them up , the whole of them. I'll pay for their bread and water, just to get their witlessness out of the way of the nation's betterment.

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/us-sanctions-push-russia-closer-abandoning-dollar-deputy-fm-sergei-ryabkov/ri20519

US Sanctions Push Russia Closer to Abandoning the Dollar — Deputy FM Sergei Ryabkov

Lyttenburgh

"So... If I understand correctly, if you take care to declare yourself as the sole legitimate authority you can thereafter decide about "legality" as you please and proceed with executions or whatever other use of force in perfect compliance with the rule of law?"

The trope goes that "authority equals the ar$e-kicking". It's the other way round – ar$e-kicking (i.e. the maintenance of the monopoly on the violence and willingness to resort to it) combined with the acquiescence of the populace to accept such arrangement (which is the sole source of the so-called "legitimacy"). In exchange the state/authority is expected to benefit those who entrust it with such support. In past times it's as simple as remaining the sole source of the legitimate violence around. Nowadays - much, much more.

Every time and place has their own definitions of "Justice/Justness" and "legitimacy". It's silly to try to lay everything into the procrustean bed of the so-called "universal values". So, yes - a judicial decision taken by a Frankish chieftain in accordance to the Salic Law, or the similar decisions by the Rus Prince in accordance to the Russian Pravda, or Icelandic Althing's decision to sentence, say, Eric the Red to the outlawry - they are all "legal", as it pertains to these times, places and cultures. In Revolutionary Russia in 1918 on the territory under control of the Soviets of Worker, Peasant and Soldier deputies, such source of legality were aforementioned Soviets.

Btw, what do you understand by the term "Rule of Law"?

Lyttenburgh

"That Putin has shown pro-West in his views (if you listen to him)"

Doesn’t matter. The Cold War was ultimately not about the ideology, that's been demonstrated again and again.

"and for that has been lambasted by the Russian Communist Party that calls him every derogatory name in the book."

Please, quote them. I, personally, can't remember anything.

"The Russian Communist caricature Putin in a Nazi costume because he wants normalized relations with D.C"

Once again - actual quotes, links, proof? To caricature Putin in a Nazi costume is solely Western shtick. Oh, and so-called Russia so-called liberals do this as well.

"Congress thinks big money is more important that the good of the nation and its fundamental national security "

Wait a sec. I thought you were against the communists and their ideas?

"Russian security runs through U.S., and U.S. security runs through Russia."

How so?

Babak Makkinejad

You are quibbling.

Kooshy

Even if ayatollah Khomeini would have said something like that, that would never happen unless Iran wants to find herself not only in war with arabs but with the entire Muslim world. Iranian/ Shia clergy and statesmen are smarter then saying anything like that. Israelies, Saudis and US would love to hear anything like that coming out of Iran. IMO, Alexander heard wrong or misunderstood.

Kooshy

IMO, Iranian revolution as much as it was an anti western hegemony revolution more importantly iwas a Shia awakening revolution (Lebanon) in that context the revolution achieved both goals

ex-PFC Chuck

The ability to anticipate the reactions of real or imagined adversaries in response to one's own provocations is not a strong point of the neoconservative mind.

SmoothieX12

Time for the neocons to learn the fundamentals.

Here is the catch 22 for neocons--once they will begin to learn with the purpose of actually obtaining the knowledge, this threatens the very nature of their neoconservatism, since being a neocon is largely an ideological (not academic) choice. This implies believing in some historical, economic, military, international relation "constants" which have very little relation to reality. So, the choice thus is very simple--one either stays neocon or begins accept reality and thus inevitably stops being one.

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