Middle East Summary - 12 July 2017

1.  Iraq 

Mosul has finally fallen after many months of intense combat.  Iraqi government forces suffered severe casualties in close combat against an enemy committed to self-immolation unless ordered to withdraw to fight again elsewhere.  Many of these IS creatures withdrew to the west and south to participate evidently in a final apocalyptic attempt to capture deir al zor in Syria in the hope of establishing another population center under IS control.  The Iraqi assault on Mosul was greatly assisted by US coalition air support, but unfortunately this air support killed and wounded many Iraqi civilians.  This was inevitable.  The withdrawal of IS forces to the south into Syria was harassed and attacked all the way by RuAF and Syrian AF aircraft causing them many more casualties.  This is in contradiction to the repeated claims by the US and NATO that R+6 does not fight IS. 

The US seems to be losing its grip on the Iraqi government.  Iraq and Russia have concluded a deal for the sale of around a hundred Russian built T-90 tanks.  These will undoubtedly be accompanied to Iraq by a group of maintenance and training people.  There will be ammunition and spare parts sales that accompany this deal for many years.

The Iraqi government has begun conducting air attacks against IS in Syrian territory east of the Euphrates River.  This  is n accord with an agreement with what the US calls the Syrian "regime."  I see no evidence that the US was consulted in reaching this agreement.

2.  Syria 

The US coalition assault on Raqqa continues successfully.  It is probably going to be a fight that will last nearly as long as the Mosul battle and with similar civilian casualties.

The R+6 offensive into the depths of eastern Syria has been in preparation for weeks.  These preparations are near completion and an advance into the east for the purpose of driving IS out of Syria and for the relief of the Syrian garrison at deir al zor  which has been besieged in heavy combat for a very long time.  One can only hope that there will be no more accidental bombings by US coalition aircraft of R+6 troops involved in effecting the liberation of eastern Syria.  The main attack in this campaign will IMO be an armor heavy mobile force advancing on desert roads and tracks to the southeast with the mission of reaching the sukhna- deir al zor for the purpose of turning the IS forces SW of the point at which the road is reached out of their position to create a rout in IS ranks.  Presumably the column that had come from the Ithriya-Rasafa road area would combine with the Desert Hawks brigade of the SAA in continuing on to deir al zor.

 In the last few days both the R+6 and the Israeli Air force have broken the ceasefire established by the US, Russia and Jordan in the three southwestern provinces of Syria.  In the Israeli case they have continued to make air attacks against SAA forces near the occupied Golan Heights.  Their excuse is that they have received fire in Israeli occupied Syrian territory from these forces, but in my opinion the real purpose is assistance to their jihadi allies who are engaged with SAA forces.  The Israelis are supporting both IS and AQ affiliated forces.  The SAA has at the same time conducted an sizable operation into eastern Suweida Province that has largely cleared the region of US supported anti-government forces who are reported to have fled to the east to the protection of US coalition centers around al-tanf .  

idlib Province remains in the hands of AQ connected terrorists who are presently engaged in eradicating their IS jihadi rivals as well as FSA semi-jihadis.  Good!  They should keep it up.  At some point the province will have to be returned to government control but that can await the completion of other government efforts.

The Turks remain on the scene in northern Aleppo Province and just across the Syria-Turkey border.  Turkey seems to harbor deeply felt irredentist dreams against both Iraq and Syria.  That problem is unlikely to disappear.

Finally,  David Ignatius has  an article in the WP (Bezo's blog) today in which he makes reference to a RAND study in which the author tries to make the case that SOF forces (Green Berets, Rangers, Delta, SEALS, and other cats and dogs) are the key to success in warfare in the future.  I am a retired Special Forces officer and am deeply and persistently devoted to my regiment, a devotion I share with TTG, John Minnerath, Degringolade and others here, but I must tell you that although Green Berets are very good at working with local fighters, the rest of the SOF "crew" are direct action fighters.  Their business is killing enemies with their own weapons in their small groups rather than training, urging and helping to lead the local folks.  Armies through the ages are made up of dismounted fighters who are called Infantry, mounted fighters who are now called Armor and missile throwers called Artillery.  IMO it will always be thus.  pl

Comments

[confusedponderer]

I know little about Boot, don't know him personally, but I have a rather clear idea about the man. I read what he writes, and it speaks for itself.

Sadly, or fortunately, I own some few (fortunately second hands) books written by Boot, in particular "An End To Evil", a notable piece he in fact didn't write alone but the help of ... the incomparable Richard Perle.

By reading it it became pretty quickly clear that this was a shovel filled with "clear propaganda & pro more wars" goodness from the two, without logic but a lot of assumptions and allegations, emeshed in more nonsense, and with global ambitions.

It was barely readable, and on a lowly-low sub-subterranean niveau one is only used from the average utterly nutter folks, with the difference that for the latter it's just annoying nonsense. With Boot and Perle as authors it is not just usual nonsense but dangerous nonsense.

[confusedponderer]

Sadly, I know the Berchtesgaden-ish area only from exercises I had during my military service. The thing that really amused me was that in the baraques, as usual in bavaria, for dinner you were always, and without being asked, given a large beer as a bonus.

Why? Well, in bavaria, beer is food, and, well, they fed us well. Nice people there, good beer, good food and it's wonderful landscape too.

[English Outsider]

Difficult to say how nice because there's a wide range of reports and stories. Some say it's pretty well normal there. One hears "crisis" from other sources. This is a report from the middle of the range:-

http://www.bavarian-times.com/town-hall-notes-refugee-situation-and-usag-bavaria-housing/3120

[John_Frank]

Yes, the cease fire is in south western Syria. However, my understanding is that the current offensive in Suweida Province is also outside of the ceasefire zone.

July 10 - Syrian army launches new campaign today just east of southern ceasefire zone, takes "strategic points, hills." http://bit.ly/2u0ix6w

My point? Irrespective of what others may want or wish both within and outside of the administration, I believe the President's primary focus is on defeating and destroying the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

As to the civil war, will the cease fire in south western Syria hold, or will it fall apart? If it holds, can it be used as a precedent to settle the fighting in other parts of western Syria?

Have opponents of the Syrian Government led by Bashir al-Assad lost the fight to overthrow him by force?

While Secretary Tillerson has made statements about Bashir al-Assad and the al-Assad family ultimately giving up power, the President is not interested in using force to push him or the family out of power. He has made that quite clear.

It is apparent from the public statements made by the French President at yesterday's press conference, that the French Government is willing to work with the Russians to find a political solution. But, what about the Gulf States?

Needless to say, those within the United States who have long sought the removal of Mr. al-Assad from office, by force if necessary, will be unhappy with these developments. We are already hearing cries that the Trump administration has capitulated to Russia and Mr. Putin.

[turcopolier]

All

Just so you can keep up with the action - https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-july-14-2017-race-to-deir-ezzor/ pl

[Thomas]

"But, what about the Gulf States?"

Have you not noticed that they are in the beginnings of a long drawn out contentious conflict? I wonder what the odds are for the Kingdom of Sadui Arabia to be the first country of the Middle East to splinter, especially with those survivors of the Islamic State returning home to see their mothers?

[John_Frank]

For those who are interested, earlier this week, the representatives of the global coalition to defeat ISIS met at the State Department in Washington, D.C.

For those interested, two videos:

Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS: Remarks at Small Group Session https://youtu.be/Oib2zmE-LeA

Special Presidential Envoy Brett McGurk delivers opening remarks with Deputy Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister of Iraq Dr. Naufel Al Hassan at the Department of State on July 13, 2017. A transcript is available at https://www.state.gov/s/seci/2017remarks/272588.htm

Special Presidential Envoy McGurk Briefs Press on Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Meeting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ty0w02LF8eQ

Special Presidential Envoy Brett McGurk holds a press briefing at the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS Small Group Meeting at Department of State on July 13, 2017. A transcript is available at https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/07/272601.htm

Also, from last week:

July 8 - Press Conference by Special Presidential Envoy McGurk in Baghdad, Iraq
https://www.state.gov/s/seci/2017remarks/272547.htm

In addition from the Defense Department:

ISIS Dealt Significant Blow After Iraq Retakes Mosul, Official Says
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1247191/isis-dealt-significant-blow-after-iraq-retakes-mosul-official-says/

People can watch the video at:

Inherent Resolve Spokesman, Iraqi Security Forces Spokesmen Brief Reporters https://www.defense.gov/Videos/videoid/537951/?videoid=537951#.WWknsz0hQko.twitter

As well, a transcript at:

Department of Defense Press Briefing by Colonel Dillon and Iraqi Spokesmen in the Pentagon Press Briefing Room
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1247303/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-colonel-dillon-and-iraqi-spokesmen-in-t/

[Babak Makkinejad]

There is no political solution; either Sunni factions fighting SAR are going to win and massacare their opponents or they themselved are going to be killed. Marcon is asking Russia to supply a face-saving settlement for the Western Fortress; there is none - in my opinion.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I really liked Sonthofen.

[Ed]

Thanks for the reply (optimaxl too...). But you missed the point, which is my fault because I failed to ask the question)s) in more meaningful and detailed ways. I'll write it up in good time and re-present it as a set piece in some way. I'm doing some research and ran across a good and lengthy description, and I will find that. The answers may be the same, but I'll know more because I asked the question more throughly. Be patient.

As noted, I find SST and its discussions more valid and informed than most.

[John_Frank]

Thank you.

Since following the situation on a map can help people visualize what is taking place, (at least I do), individuals may also find Syrian Civil War Map - https://t.co/QeXZATbIdy of value.

The twitter feed is Syrian Civil War Map @CivilWarMap

[John_Frank]

especially with those survivors of the Islamic State returning home to see their mothers

Based on various public announcements, it seems that like the Russians, the International Coalition do not plan on showing any mercy to the foreign fighters currently in Syria and Iraq. The plan is to annihilate them.

Defeating and destroying the Islamic State in places like Raqqaa in eastern Syria is just the first step. What happens afterwards?

In that regard, how are the Syrian Kurds seeking to position themselves?

Analysis: Shift in Rhetoric Among Kurdish Politicians in Syria
Kurdish political officials in Syria are taking an increasingly anti-Iranian and pro-Saudi Arabia stance amid the rising tensions between Washington, Tehran and their proxies, and the rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, writes journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg.
https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/07/14/analysis-shift-in-rhetoric-among-kurdish-politicians-in-syria

[Thomas]

"In that regard, how are the Syrian Kurds seeking to position themselves?"

Well considering the threats from Erdogan, the Kurdish Politicians are taking the Saudi side in the Gulf Conflict since Turkey stands with Qatar. Nothing new under the Sun.

[Lemur]

Col,

You call on the Israeli response to the ceasefire negotiated in syria was spot on:

http://thehill.com/policy/international/342246-israel-rejects-us-brokered-ceasefire-in-syria