Middle East Summary - 12 July 2017

1.  Iraq 

Mosul has finally fallen after many months of intense combat.  Iraqi government forces suffered severe casualties in close combat against an enemy committed to self-immolation unless ordered to withdraw to fight again elsewhere.  Many of these IS creatures withdrew to the west and south to participate evidently in a final apocalyptic attempt to capture deir al zor in Syria in the hope of establishing another population center under IS control.  The Iraqi assault on Mosul was greatly assisted by US coalition air support, but unfortunately this air support killed and wounded many Iraqi civilians.  This was inevitable.  The withdrawal of IS forces to the south into Syria was harassed and attacked all the way by RuAF and Syrian AF aircraft causing them many more casualties.  This is in contradiction to the repeated claims by the US and NATO that R+6 does not fight IS. 

The US seems to be losing its grip on the Iraqi government.  Iraq and Russia have concluded a deal for the sale of around a hundred Russian built T-90 tanks.  These will undoubtedly be accompanied to Iraq by a group of maintenance and training people.  There will be ammunition and spare parts sales that accompany this deal for many years.

The Iraqi government has begun conducting air attacks against IS in Syrian territory east of the Euphrates River.  This  is n accord with an agreement with what the US calls the Syrian "regime."  I see no evidence that the US was consulted in reaching this agreement.

2.  Syria 

The US coalition assault on Raqqa continues successfully.  It is probably going to be a fight that will last nearly as long as the Mosul battle and with similar civilian casualties.

The R+6 offensive into the depths of eastern Syria has been in preparation for weeks.  These preparations are near completion and an advance into the east for the purpose of driving IS out of Syria and for the relief of the Syrian garrison at deir al zor  which has been besieged in heavy combat for a very long time.  One can only hope that there will be no more accidental bombings by US coalition aircraft of R+6 troops involved in effecting the liberation of eastern Syria.  The main attack in this campaign will IMO be an armor heavy mobile force advancing on desert roads and tracks to the southeast with the mission of reaching the sukhna- deir al zor for the purpose of turning the IS forces SW of the point at which the road is reached out of their position to create a rout in IS ranks.  Presumably the column that had come from the Ithriya-Rasafa road area would combine with the Desert Hawks brigade of the SAA in continuing on to deir al zor.

 In the last few days both the R+6 and the Israeli Air force have broken the ceasefire established by the US, Russia and Jordan in the three southwestern provinces of Syria.  In the Israeli case they have continued to make air attacks against SAA forces near the occupied Golan Heights.  Their excuse is that they have received fire in Israeli occupied Syrian territory from these forces, but in my opinion the real purpose is assistance to their jihadi allies who are engaged with SAA forces.  The Israelis are supporting both IS and AQ affiliated forces.  The SAA has at the same time conducted an sizable operation into eastern Suweida Province that has largely cleared the region of US supported anti-government forces who are reported to have fled to the east to the protection of US coalition centers around al-tanf .  

idlib Province remains in the hands of AQ connected terrorists who are presently engaged in eradicating their IS jihadi rivals as well as FSA semi-jihadis.  Good!  They should keep it up.  At some point the province will have to be returned to government control but that can await the completion of other government efforts.

The Turks remain on the scene in northern Aleppo Province and just across the Syria-Turkey border.  Turkey seems to harbor deeply felt irredentist dreams against both Iraq and Syria.  That problem is unlikely to disappear.

Finally,  David Ignatius has  an article in the WP (Bezo's blog) today in which he makes reference to a RAND study in which the author tries to make the case that SOF forces (Green Berets, Rangers, Delta, SEALS, and other cats and dogs) are the key to success in warfare in the future.  I am a retired Special Forces officer and am deeply and persistently devoted to my regiment, a devotion I share with TTG, John Minnerath, Degringolade and others here, but I must tell you that although Green Berets are very good at working with local fighters, the rest of the SOF "crew" are direct action fighters.  Their business is killing enemies with their own weapons in their small groups rather than training, urging and helping to lead the local folks.  Armies through the ages are made up of dismounted fighters who are called Infantry, mounted fighters who are now called Armor and missile throwers called Artillery.  IMO it will always be thus.  pl

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

Please see here - especially the last paragraph

http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/71471

[Willybilly]

100000000% correct...

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yup; 50 Muslim statesmen (irony alert) gather in Jeddah to meet-and-greet the new US President, pledging themselves to contain Iran - the source of their civilization - and nary a peep out of any of them regarding those poor Muslims in Yemen - I guess they do not count as human beings since so many of them belong to the Party of Ali.

I wonder how much longer that Ilham Aliyev (of Ali) government in Azerbaijan can endure; ruling over a Shia population and yet siding with the enemies of the Party of Ali.

[turcopolier]

All

Looks like the general, multi-pronged offensive has begun everywhere, eastern Suweida, east of Palmyra and the armored force headed from SW of Rusafa for the hinge behind Sukhna. Reminds of Grant's Overland Campaign. Someone asked where I learned to do this kind of analysis. I went through the Army school system all the way to the War College and was a designated operational planner for the JCS for seven or eight years while serving as the head man in DIA for the ME and South Asia. worked on a lot of campaign and contingency plans for the US and allies. pl

[Kooshy]

Colonel I understand sir, this the oath we took "I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic"

[Kooshy]

Azerbaijan is run by alliance of russian oligarch mafia, and western oil companies. They will keep him there till a religious revolt from bottom up which Iran has to support since it will be Shia based and supported by Qom and Najaf. Once the revolt get supported by Hozeh , like in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain it will not stop.

[Kooshy]

Western Iraq is mostly under control of PMU.

[Peter in Toronto]

I really wish Carlson was more savvy on Syrian conflict, and not yield so easily on some of those slanderous talking points like Russia "bombing bakeries" or other such nonsense.

[Kooshy]

Here is one Intresting debate on Syria
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/pro-assad-syria-tv-fight-otv-lebanon-studio-guests-on-air-live-opposition-regime-civil-war-isis-a7838791.html

[Pundita]

fanto,

the story has been well covered in US msm.

Here is WaPo on the 11th

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-sends-forces-to-1st-military-base-abroad-in-djibouti/2017/07/11/dfa740ee-66a4-11e7-94ab-5b1f0ff459df_story.html

And CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/12/asia/china-djibouti-military-base/index.html

Several other US outlets as well -- see Google News and Bing if you have access to them where you are. Now as to how much the story has been on TV, I don't know. With the exception of my little research project last year to watch RT, I haven't watched TV since 2013. But check if there's a video report accompanying the CNN report; that would indicate it made it onto a CNN TV news report.

[FourthAndLong]

I can't take it at face value. It's Fox throwing red meat to the great unwashed. They pay the rent with those acrimonious dust-ups. Having said that, I would have to say that Tucker made far more sense were a choice imposed.

Putin believes he's next in the series of US depositions commencing with Sadaam. Critical to understand that in any appraisal of him, his policies and actions.

Comparisons with Hitler are hysterical, absurd -- way over the top. Beyond absurd.

Russia continues to struggle with its massive logistical problems and harsh climate. They've made immense achievements though. Last year they led the world in grain production, marginally edging out the US and EU.

Russia continues, as it has for centuries, to be plagued by epic corruption endemic to a sparcely populated country of 11 time zones and severe winters. Russians are no more inherently corrupt or brutal than any other people. It's a great pity people in the US are not better educated about their situation. The demonization borders on criminal insanity.

[Eric Newhill]

Peter,
I did see that interview. Boot came off like a madman. I also saw the interview that English Outsider refers to. Another madman revealing himself.

My wife, who was watching with me, thought Boot was just some crazy guy that Carlson found in a shady bar somewhere and set up as a straw man. I was glad to be able to respond, "No, he is the borg that Col Lang speaks of".

[turcopolier]

Eric Newhill

Max Boot is a senior fellow at the CFR in New York and the ultimate Borgist. I was on a panel at NYU with him at the beginning of the Iraq War and he shrank from me like Dracula from the sun. pl

[John_Frank]

If the Syrian Army and their allies are taking advantage of the Southern Front ceasefire to launch a general offensive in eastern Syria, which largely focuses on territory held by the Islamic State, good for them.

I suspect, as a result of the meeting between Pres. Putin and Pres. Trump an understanding was reached on zones of influence (or if you prefer responsibility) in eastern Syria, while both sides focused on eradicating the Islamic State. If that meant the Russian side had to take territory in the south east, outside of the cease fire zone, presently controlled by forces fighting the Syrian Government, so be it. The only caveat? Do not threaten US forces or forces being directly supported by US forces in the fight against the Islamic State, because if you do, we will defend ourselves.

Could be wrong, but that is my sense of what is going on.

[turcopolier]

FKDahl

We all like Garmisch-Partenkirchen and Berchtesgaden. The US Army had seven or eight resort hotels at the two places for a long time and a ice show restaurant complete with sliding roof. It was the "Casa Carioca." I spent two weeks at Garmisch one Christmas. New Subject: I was an underage infantry private in the National Guard in 1955. I was careful not to speak to officers unless spoken to. pl

[turcopolier]

John_Frank

The ceasefire covers SW Syria, not SE Syria. Except for Suweida Province (SW)the area the big offensive in the east is going into is all OUTSIDE the ceasefire zone. pl

[Ed]

"Armies through the ages..." But what about that old RMA piece, non-lethal weapons, the arming of gangs and the like, cyber war and information technology, and the use of space weaponry?

[turcopolier]

Ed

Largely bullshit. Bean bag guns do not win the Battle of the Bulge or the recent Battle of Mosul. Seen any space weapons lately? When you do they will be just another kind of artillery. pl

[turcopolier]

FKDahl
SWMBO tells me that I have deceived you. She says that I was equally obnoxious in high school when I was carrying a rifle in the National Guard. When I came in the regular army after college I had been exposed to a good humanities education and was even more difficult. pl

[fanto]

At Pundita:
Thank you very much for the feedback. I thought this story of China establishing and publicizing the base of operations so close to the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea - is very important in the geopolitical sense, a "game changer" if you will, and possibly a nod to USA that they would be there in case of unpredictable developments in ME.

[mike]

I believe that cholera is non-preferential of religion. In the Yemen it is in both the east and the west, infecting both the Party of Ali, and the Salafists, but mostly the very young who are not yet in either camp.

[optimax]

Ed

Nerf warfare. That's like adults asking, "Why can't we all just get along?" and not knowing why.

[different clue]

Peter in Toronto,

I have seen very little of Tucker Carlson over the years . . . but he seems to have matured and gained quality since his tenure on Crossfire with Paul Boogaloo ( or whatever that name was).

He still needs some practice dealing with the super-fast shout-talking style of people like Peters. But he will get that practice by talking to more of them on his show. He was already able to resist rising to some of Peters' baited hooks and he may reach the point of rising to zero of them . . from Peters or from anyone else.

The fast-talking constant-interruption style of these political shows (pioneered by Chris Matthews I think) is part of the problem. Talking reeeeaaaaalllll sssslllloooowwwww . . . to force the filibustering guest to also slow down . . . would be considered bad television, and would get Tucker Carlson a nasty reprimand from his superiors. Their priority is ratings-gaining entertainment after all, so there is only so much actual education and discovery that Carlson or anyone else would be permitted to pursue on this or any other TV channel.

Peters knew what he was doing. He was playing the "passionate advocate" for Freedomization and Democrafication overseas. One hopes Tucker Carlson is able to watch these shows after the fact the way a football team watches the game it just played . . . to really study how Peters diddit. And to study how all the Peterses do it. So he can be readier and readier to force them off their game and make them play his game his way.

[different clue]

Peter in Toronto,

Having watched the Carlson interview with Max Boot, I must say Carlson handled Boot very well. He gave Boot chance after chance after chance for Boot to step on Boot's own . . . tongue . . . which Boot did every time.

Boot was clearly more unhingedly emotional than Peters and Carlson gave the audience a chance to see the Boot reality. If the viewers at home were to put their noses up close to the screen, they could almost smell the Boot.

[Álvaro Aragão Athayde]

For some time now I have been reading this blog and I have already shared some of the publications. I'll share this one.