Middle East Summary - 12 July 2017

1.  Iraq 

Mosul has finally fallen after many months of intense combat.  Iraqi government forces suffered severe casualties in close combat against an enemy committed to self-immolation unless ordered to withdraw to fight again elsewhere.  Many of these IS creatures withdrew to the west and south to participate evidently in a final apocalyptic attempt to capture deir al zor in Syria in the hope of establishing another population center under IS control.  The Iraqi assault on Mosul was greatly assisted by US coalition air support, but unfortunately this air support killed and wounded many Iraqi civilians.  This was inevitable.  The withdrawal of IS forces to the south into Syria was harassed and attacked all the way by RuAF and Syrian AF aircraft causing them many more casualties.  This is in contradiction to the repeated claims by the US and NATO that R+6 does not fight IS. 

The US seems to be losing its grip on the Iraqi government.  Iraq and Russia have concluded a deal for the sale of around a hundred Russian built T-90 tanks.  These will undoubtedly be accompanied to Iraq by a group of maintenance and training people.  There will be ammunition and spare parts sales that accompany this deal for many years.

The Iraqi government has begun conducting air attacks against IS in Syrian territory east of the Euphrates River.  This  is n accord with an agreement with what the US calls the Syrian "regime."  I see no evidence that the US was consulted in reaching this agreement.

2.  Syria 

The US coalition assault on Raqqa continues successfully.  It is probably going to be a fight that will last nearly as long as the Mosul battle and with similar civilian casualties.

The R+6 offensive into the depths of eastern Syria has been in preparation for weeks.  These preparations are near completion and an advance into the east for the purpose of driving IS out of Syria and for the relief of the Syrian garrison at deir al zor  which has been besieged in heavy combat for a very long time.  One can only hope that there will be no more accidental bombings by US coalition aircraft of R+6 troops involved in effecting the liberation of eastern Syria.  The main attack in this campaign will IMO be an armor heavy mobile force advancing on desert roads and tracks to the southeast with the mission of reaching the sukhna- deir al zor for the purpose of turning the IS forces SW of the point at which the road is reached out of their position to create a rout in IS ranks.  Presumably the column that had come from the Ithriya-Rasafa road area would combine with the Desert Hawks brigade of the SAA in continuing on to deir al zor.

 In the last few days both the R+6 and the Israeli Air force have broken the ceasefire established by the US, Russia and Jordan in the three southwestern provinces of Syria.  In the Israeli case they have continued to make air attacks against SAA forces near the occupied Golan Heights.  Their excuse is that they have received fire in Israeli occupied Syrian territory from these forces, but in my opinion the real purpose is assistance to their jihadi allies who are engaged with SAA forces.  The Israelis are supporting both IS and AQ affiliated forces.  The SAA has at the same time conducted an sizable operation into eastern Suweida Province that has largely cleared the region of US supported anti-government forces who are reported to have fled to the east to the protection of US coalition centers around al-tanf .  

idlib Province remains in the hands of AQ connected terrorists who are presently engaged in eradicating their IS jihadi rivals as well as FSA semi-jihadis.  Good!  They should keep it up.  At some point the province will have to be returned to government control but that can await the completion of other government efforts.

The Turks remain on the scene in northern Aleppo Province and just across the Syria-Turkey border.  Turkey seems to harbor deeply felt irredentist dreams against both Iraq and Syria.  That problem is unlikely to disappear.

Finally,  David Ignatius has  an article in the WP (Bezo's blog) today in which he makes reference to a RAND study in which the author tries to make the case that SOF forces (Green Berets, Rangers, Delta, SEALS, and other cats and dogs) are the key to success in warfare in the future.  I am a retired Special Forces officer and am deeply and persistently devoted to my regiment, a devotion I share with TTG, John Minnerath, Degringolade and others here, but I must tell you that although Green Berets are very good at working with local fighters, the rest of the SOF "crew" are direct action fighters.  Their business is killing enemies with their own weapons in their small groups rather than training, urging and helping to lead the local folks.  Armies through the ages are made up of dismounted fighters who are called Infantry, mounted fighters who are now called Armor and missile throwers called Artillery.  IMO it will always be thus.  pl

Comments

[FkDahl]

Carlson at FOX interview with Lt Col (ret) Peters. Revealing in a scary way what a spittle throwing fool he is.
http://www.snafu-solomon.com/2017/07/carlson-bodyslams-ltcol-ralph-peters.html

[turcopolier]

FK Dahl

Which one are you referring to? pl

[Kooshy]

Colonel Lang I found you very stratigicly creative with names, Borg, Chihuahua, Mokhtar Trump and now a new ace. WP = Bezo's blog, very well said, BTW this Bezo's blog,
is full force after pulling a soft coup on the current legal and constitutional administration of this United States, IMO they are traitors to this country.

[Peter in Toronto]

Excellent summary Colonel! It's a shame we have so little media published by the Russian MoD in the eastern campaign.

Did you by any chance catch the interview Tucker Carlson held last evening?

I think he carefully exposed one of those Borgist creatures you describe, the public caught a rare glimpse of one of these scheming minions.

For those who missed it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i772m4UdadE

[John_Frank]

Thank you for this post. As to Syria:

1. While I stand corrected, to the best of my knowledge the Israelis have not launched any air strikes in Southern Syria over the last 72 hours.

Also, people may find the following report published by the Rubin Center on July 3 of value:

Israel's Relations with the Syrian Rebels: An Assessment http://www.rubincenter.org/2017/07/israels-relations-with-the-syrian-rebels-an-assessment

The report is by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, a fellow at the Rubin Center and is very thorough.

Yes, the writer is aware of the Rubin Center's location and of the author's perspective. Personally I found the article informative. People can read the piece for themselves and make their own assessment.

2. As to the cease fire itself, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has posted the following report:

The Syrian south truce completes its first 72 hours with varying violations without causing casualties in the provinces of Al-Suwaidaa, Quneitra and Daraa
http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=69875

(The writer is aware of the leanings of the person behind the Syria HR. However, at this juncture detailed information on violations is sparse.)

With respect to the advances being made by the Syria Army, according to the following report, this attack was launched just east of the southern ceasefire zone:

Syrian army launches new campaign just east of southern ceasefire zone
http://bit.ly/2t9PKHV

[turcopolier]

Kooshy

Treason is the only crime defined in the constitution. It was put in there to deal with British sympathizers. It is narrowly defined and we should wan to keep it that way. pl

[turcopolier]

FKDahl

Peters is an officer who never saw a day of combat and who is a thoroughly indoctrinated product of the ant-Russia school at Garmisch. pl

[William Fitzgerald]

Pat Lang,

Have there been reports of Samantha Power going into hysterics over the slaughter in Mosul? Perhaps she has and no one's paid any attention. I think FK Dahl was referring to Peters.

WPTIII

[Cortes]

Peters must be a golfer.

Le Carre in one of his blockbusters warned us about the golfing fraternity who promote each other within bureaucratic circles. Peters is not just moronic but willing to whore himself for a minimal appearance fee.

[FkDahl]

He, referring to Peters. I find Carlson in the top percentile for TV personalities.

[FkDahl]

Garmish is a very nice place, how lucky to have a school there!

[mike]

Meanwhile in the Yemen, cholera cases have surpassed 320,000.

http://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/yemen-cholera-outbreak-daily-epidemiology-update-12-july-2017

[Thirdeye]

AlMasdar is confirming that the Tiger Force is getting in position for a move into the rear of Suknah, which was the prognosis offered by the Colonel. It looks like they see an opportunity to demolish ISIS in their western salient, while dealing a blow to their defenses on the way to Deir Ezzor in Suknah. That disposition assumes a certain amount of risk at Deir Ezzor, but there seems to be a pretty steady pattern of breaking up assembled attack forces there with aerial bombardment and a steady supply of ATGMS delivered aerially to the besieged forces. And the more R+6 forces can operate in mutual support, the better.

[BraveNewWorld]

The problem with that article is that it completely ignores what is being said at the cabinet level of the Israeli government which boils down to keep the war going as long as possible because we aren't suffering and let as many people as possible die as long as they aren't Jewish.

[fanto]

All,
Chinese state TV - CGTN - (China Global Television Network, ch. 279 on Dish TV) today brings the news about the first outside of China military support base in Djibouti, with the task to fight terrorism, support the surrounding states and do good in general. I do not watch the US media that much anymore, so I am interested if others looking at SST have seen this information on the MSM, (than includes the funny Bezo´s blog, aka Pravda on Potomac ).

[robt willmann]

Here is recently published video said to be made from a drone(s) of Mosul, Iraq, showing its devastated condition. The first clip has a few brief segments of people included. The video is probably authentic, with the second one being from the Associated Press, and both seem to be from the same source, although it is not clear who actually filmed it--

https://www.rferl.org/a/drone-video-show-ruins-of-mosul/28610777.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4nlpnO9TYc

[MRW]

Peters is absolutely insufferable. Some other Fox anchor likes to have him on, can’t remember who. Makes my teeth and bones ache to listen to him. Sanctimonious and self-righteous fool.

[John_Frank]

As to Iraq and the purchase of Russian Tanks, according to reports:

1. Iraq is currently relying on the Russian produced T-72, T-55 and BMP-1 armored vehicles, as well the American-produced M1A1 Abrams Tank.

2. The headline in the Almasdranews.com report "Iraqi Army buys nearly one hundred T-90 tanks from Russia" https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iraqi-army-buys-nearly-one-hundred-t-90-tanks-russia/ is an exaggeration. The agreement involves the purchase of 73 T-90 Tank 'variants.'

Iraq Purchases 73 T-90 Tank Variants From Russia
http://www.defenseworld.net/news/19813/Iraq_Purchases_73_T_90_Tank_Variants_From_Russia#.WWb-woTyupo

The purchase will allow the Iraqi military to replace the older T-72 and T-55 tanks it currently operates.

3. The purchase has been in the works for some time. An old posting on the Pakistan Defense Forum from April 18, 2014 references an agreement to purchase the T-90 tank from Russia in 2012. https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/iraq-bought-t90-ms-tanks-from-russia.309931/

In that regard, in October 2012, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki signed a deal with Russia’s Rosoboronexport, variously estimated at $4.2 – $5.0 billion.

(Quoting from a report titled Baby Come Back: Iraq is Buying, Fielding Russian Weapons Again http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/baby-come-back-iraq-is-buying-russian-weapons-again-07571/ published on July 1, 2016 on the website defenseindustrydaily.com)

With the collapse in the price of crude oil, along with the huge costs being incurred in fighting the Islamic State, to meet its financial obligations, the Iraqi Federal Government has been forced to seek IMF assistance.

Meanwhile the various UN relief agencies operating in country under the auspices of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq continue to "pass the hat" to help cover the massive costs related to the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

So, to reach an agreement, the Russians would have had to agree to sell the tanks and any subsequent support to the Iraqi Government on extremely lenient payment terms.

I make that observation because, according to reports, the Iraqi Government had expressed interest in purchasing the S-300 anti-aircraft missile defense system from the Russians, but the deal fell through as the parties could not reach an agreement on payment terms.

[Patrick D]

"In the Israeli case they have continued to make air attacks against SAA forces near the occupied Golan Heights. Their excuse is that they have received fire in Israeli occupied Syrian territory from these forces, but in my opinion the real purpose is assistance to their jihadi allies who are engaged with SAA forces."

This is Israel's MO. The same thing was evident during the 2nd intifada coinciding with the rift between HAMAS and the PA/Fatah. I recall HAMAS figures saying that if they wanted to hit the PA/Fatah, they would just lob a couple shells into Israeli territory and let the Israelis do the work. There is a legalistic basis for it that shields Israel from accusations that they are state sponsors of terrorism, apparently. It was in the wake of 9/11 which absorbed the attention of most western media. If I recall, I read on this website that Israel is in possession of counter-battery radar and knows full well who fired the shots.

[Wunduk]

Good overview of Golan events up to May in UNDOF's reporting (S/2017/486)
http://undocs.org/S/2017/486
Increasing UNDOF and its area of responsibility should be enlarged. While this will encroach on Syria's sovereignty, it could offer an alternative to the current Israeli approach of bombing perceived enemies in that area. This is taking the Israeli statement at face value.
Of course, UNDOF would need to shift from the current form into something more robust. It's baby steps at the moment. Nepal is providing a new armored infantry company. Why not ask Canada, China or other bigger and better armed armies to fill this gap?

[English Outsider]

Thanks for that. An instructive interview. This is Lt. Col Ralph Peters @ 4.26 in the interview linked to above explaining how things are:-

"Vladimir Putin hates us. He is malevolent. ... He is as close to pure evil as I can find."

And later on in the interview we find that Assad has killed half a million of his own people and will kill more given the chance.

Got it. Finally Western intervention in Syria begins to make sense.

[jsn]

Off topic, but I thought you might find this interesting if you haven't already seen it:
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/did-17-intelligence-agencies-really-come-to-consensus-on-russia/

[r whitman]

A fine summary of what is happening today. Does anyone care to predict what things will look like a year from now? Who is going to own what territory?

[Old Microbiologist]

I think Ralph drank the koolaid too much. I knew him a ways back and he was usually straight up but he clearly has been blinded by Russiaphobia. This was way over the top so has me re-examining some of what I believe to be true.

[turcopolier]

English Outsider

At last you see the light! (irony) Peters' hysteric antics were repeated last night on TC's show when Max Boot, the arch-neocon, melted down into a blubbering puddle of neocosmic ectoplasm. Well worth the watch. Who will be next; Pletka, Maddow? pl