Israel cannot be pleased with tomorrow's SW cease fire in Syria

Quneitra , Deraa and Suweida province have been closely contested the last few months.  The Israelis have been flying Close Air Support for their favorite flavors of jihadi rebels in the area close to the Golan Heights (occupied Syria).  They have also been providing medical evacuation and support for the same. Why?  they seem to think that a jihadi controlled buffer zone between them and Damascus is better for them than Syrian government control.  They do this in spite of the factoid that until the civil war began in Syria, there had been quiet along the front there for a long time.

The Israelis are unable to cope with the missile and artillery rocket threat from Hizbullah north of the present front line north of the present line of contact.  They know that.  Neither air attacks or a possible massive Israeli ground attack into Lebanon would prevent HB firing a lot of their arsenal (30,000 weapons) into the northern half of Israel.  Their belief is that if they take down the Syrian government they can achieve an operational level envelopment of Hizbullah's firing positions in Lebanon.  They also believe that defeat of the SAG would fatally wound the Iranian government politically.  None of that seems very likely to me but the scheme fits well with US enmity toward the Syrian government.  Perhaps an eventual offensive toward Damascus is dreamt of in DC (certain circles). That doesn't seem very likely to me either. 

The prospect of such  a cease fire must seem a good thing to the SAG.  The SAA (R+6) are perennially short of troops.  A massive (for them) offensive in the east is imminent.  The objective will be the extermination of IS from eastern Syria and the relief of the long besieged Euphrates River city of deir al zor.  A temporary reduction of the level of commitment to the SW would be helpful.

Why did Trump and Tillerson agree to this "deal?"  I doubt that they understand the military situation and Kushner was not in the room to argue for the Israeli interest.  pl

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/07/us/politics/syria-ceasefire-agreement.html?_r=0

Comments

[Greco]

It's a good development, far better than some of the rumors I heard swirling around after the WH declared Assad was planning "another CW attack."

With respect to your question, did Putin give assurances that the Assads won't retain hereditary rule over Syria? That to me seems to be the real sticking point.

[b]

The Israelis wanted the U.S. to put troops into the ceasefire area near the border. (They also asked for pink unicorns.)

Now Russian military police will patrol there. They will have a diligent eye on whatever Israel does in the area.

Trump seems to be happy that he can leave the Syria mess to Putin. Tillerson made a quite interesting remark on the issue.
/quote/ “Maybe they’ve got the right approach and we’ve got the wrong approach,” he said in an extraordinary concession. /endquote/

Good that Trump left Mattis and McMaster outside of the room.

[A.Pols]

Well, we'll see, won't we?
Seems these cease fires are evanescent..

[ann]

After reading on this website the amount of preparation necessary for talks to be held between high level govt representatives, I was surprised how casually Trump began discussions. Impulsively. Making deals without background. Maybe just to say he made the deal.

I wonder if any of this will matter when they get home.

[turcopolier]

Greco

Answer your own question. pl

[Sam Peralta]

"Why did Trump and Tillerson agree to this "deal?""

Col. Lang,

My layman's opinion is that Trump is slowly asserting himself behind the scenes and working to stabilize the relationship with the Russians. I base this opinion on Putin's comment that the Trump on TV is not the person in real life discussions. And on Syria, that the US is starting to become more pragmatic. I also found it instructive that Trump had only Tillerson in the meeting with Putin and did not have McMaster or Mattis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-08/putin-trump-tv-different-one-real-life

Of course, those afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome will not accept this opinion and will claim that Trump's long, apparently positive meeting with Putin proves he is a stooge. I fully expect the Likudnik corner, including the inside mole Kushner, to do everything in their power to derail any kind of "pragmatic arrangement" with the Russians in Syria and the ME in general. I expect some forward & backward progression, but over time, I think or at least hope, that Trump will be sufficiently influenced by the sober realist Putin and we can take any potential military conflict with Russia off the table.

[Cortes]

A positive view of President Trump's meeting with President Putin emerges from the following article by Alexander Mercouris:

http://theduran.com/trump-putin-summit-bonding-syria-ukraine-cybersecurity/

[jo6pac]

I'll help with that. V. Putin sounds pretty clear on the subject

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/07/you-have-no-right-to-talk-about-syrias.html

[jo6pac]

Sound like israel is getting a little nervous.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-launches-big-assault-golan-heights-israel-watches-afar/

[MRW]

And Fiona Hill.

[Anna]

Here is a sample of hysterical reaction to the Trump-Putin talk by some Leon Aron, a whoring Resident Scholar and Director of Russian Studies at American Enterprise Institute: http://www.aei.org/scholar/leon-aron/
With his pettiness, Leon Aron is no Stephen Cohen. Aron's hysterics bring to mind the worst among the Jewish activists of the Bolshevik revolution (like Yagoda and Kaganovich). Rather typical for AEI. The Resident Scholar cannot help himself but to exhibit a visceral hate for Russian Federation; this is incurable. One wonders if this warmongering could be qualified as a hate crime.

[turcopolier]

Sam Peralta
The mental process and interaction between Trump and Tillerson that led to the exclusion from the meeting of Mattis, McMaster and Kushner must have been remarkable. Their absence IMO made the SW Syria attempt at ceasefire possible. McMaster is now saying how pleased he is with this. Well, he can do that or pack up his office. This looks like a turning point in US/Russian relations. it will be interesting to watch as Schumer, Mark Warner and Adam Schiff try to decide if it is still worth their while to continue to chase the red herring of Trump-Russia collusion. IMO most Americans (no matter how ignorant) will think an improvement in US/Russian relations is a good thing. We will see if the ceasefire holds for a while and we await the opening of the R+6 anti-IS offensive in the east. pl

[Anna]

Expect Israel-firsters to squeal for blood and to produce more warmongering nonsense. See the slightly insane Applebaum, opportunistic Aron, and miserable Lucas.

[turcopolier]

Anna

Someone suggested to me that the Anti-Russian emotion of many Jews is related to Jungian collective memory of Tsarist pogroms. Opinions? pl

[MRW]

Watch the 4.5 min video at this link for the whole thing. Well worth watching.

[MRW]

”...how casually Trump began discussions. Impulsively. Making deals without background."

How do you know?

[BrotherJoe]

Try finding an English translation of "Two Hundred Years Together"
by Aleksander Solzhenitsyn. The two volume Russian version is $129 on Amazon. Apparently we're only to be allowed one interpretation of history.

[Bill Herschel]

Exxon is at 38 times earnings (Apple 17). The stock market is booming. Repeal and replace is as dead as dead can be.

Putin: What do you think will happen if I shoot down an Israeli jet (cough), excuse me, if Syria shoots down an Israeli jet? Oh and by the way do you need help with Kim "slap the American bastards in their face” Jong-un?

Trump: Let's do this ceasefire.

Putin: Good idea.

Trump: Rex, have you finished polishing my WWE belt? I told you to do it on the plane. I don't like to wait.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

I continue to think that Donald Trump was elected because he was the nationalist peace candidate. In fact, if he wasn’t burdened with Republican beliefs such as more tax cuts for fellow oligarchs, he would have won the popular vote. Hillary Clinton was tagged as the globalist war candidate. That and her collapse at the NY 9/11 ceremony destroyed the Democratic Party, not the Russians. I am hoping that Donald Trump watched “I Claudius” back when on PBS. If Vladimir Putin is correct that the real Donald Trump is not the media caricature, then the President is stage managing the globalist forces arrayed against him to survive his tour in the White House.

[turcopolier]

Bill Herschel

You have managed to reduce this serious business to silly BS about Exxon's profit margins and stock price. Congratulations. pl

[different clue]

turcopolier,

Restoration of normal decent relations is one of the three things I voted for Trump "for", aside from voting for Trump "against" Clinton. If relations re-normalize, I will feel 1/3rd validated in my vote for Trump.

Rage and weeping over this will come from the entire Borg and Beltway who all wanted a Cold War 2.0 with Russia for their various different reasons. The Democratic party Clintonites will be the last holdouts and bitter-enders on " Putin diddit (whatever it was)" It is unfortunate that Sanders will go passively along with a lot of this. Maybe he will be pressurable-out of his agreement with "Putin diddit" if he sees enough Mainstream MidAmerican support rising for Trump as peace with Russia becomes more visible.

Perhaps Sanders can be the hammer and Trump can be the anvil upon which the Clintocratic Party can be beaten into shape or beaten out of existence.

[turcopolier]

Bill Herschel

Having thought this over as to why you would say things so trivial and silly I can only think that the post rattled you. Not up to your usual level of misdirection. shalom. pl

[Jack]

Bill

Your caricature of Trump and Tillerson in the comment above reflect your bias. Clearly you don't recognize the political courage required by Trump to have such a public and extensive meeting with Putin where the outcome was positive. Trump knew that he would be piloried if he engaged with Putin in a respectful manner on a way forward to some kind of rapprochement. Considering the recent hysteria around Russia and Trump including calls for impeachment and a special counsel investigation, he showed remarkable guts and disregard for the opinion of the Borg media and establishment. Steve Cohen is right. This was an act of statesmanship, as he didn't fall into the predictable pattern of our typical politicians by taking the standard "Putin is a thug" attitude.

The response of the usual Borg punditry are so predictable and say it all.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-08/trump-putin-had-tremendous-meeting-left-goes-ape

[Bill Herschel]

I think what we are discovering is that Donald Trump is actually Oscar Zoroaster Phadrig Isaac Norman Henkle Emmannuel Ambroise Diggs. Not half so fearsome as he would like us to believe. That is a very, very good thing. His words speak louder than his actions. If this ceasefire holds, it will be the best thing he has done in office.

You forgot to mention that I also said that repeal and replace was dead, dead, dead. I am not a Libertarian so that does not rattle me.

[Lemur]

Col., everyone

I do believe Trump is certainly on the rise again from the low point of the Saudi Arabia visit. He's made a strong showing in Europe, and been well received in Poland. He's clearly angling to work with 'new Europe', which is a smart move that undermines the hostile Brussels-centric regime. He's had a meeting with Putin which has led to a tangible result. Back home, the media has been retracting its Russian narrative. CNN has decided to set itself on fire by trying to crush dissent to its rule. Trump's immigration program is gathering steam in the legislature, even drawing in some democrats. Economic indicators are heading in the right direction.

So far we're dealing with good signs rather than substance, so that's a major qualifier. We'll see if Trump can capitalize on this momentum.