Following up on Colonel Lang's post regarding the Saudi Arabian/Egyptian debacle in trying to bully Qatar (please see Little Qatar has bested the GCC and Egypt. Mufaja'a!), there are two other major developments. First, Donald Trump reportedly has ordered the CIA to pull the plug on arming and training Islamic radicals bent on overthrowing Bashar Al Assad:
The program was a central plank of a policy begun by the Obama administration in 2013 to put pressure on Assad to step aside, but even its backers have questioned its efficacy once Russia deployed forces in Syria two years later. Preceding the CIA program was a Pentagon-led effort which was criticized by Foreign Policy for costing $500 million without yielding tangible results.
Officials said the phasing out of the secret program reflects Trump’s interest in finding ways to work with Russia after Trump's July 7 meeting with Putin at the G-20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany. It may also signal a lack of capability as well as desire in Washington to take steps to remove Assad from power in Syria. Officials told the Washington Post that Trump made the decision to scrap the CIA program nearly a month ago, after an Oval Office meeting with CIA Director Mike Pompeo and national security adviser H.R. McMaster.
After the Trump-Putin meeting, the United States and Russia announced an agreement to back a new cease-fire in southwest Syria, along the Jordanian border and adjoining the Israeli occupied Syrian Golan Heights, where many of the CIA-backed rebels have long operated. Trump described the limited cease-fire deal as one of the benefits of a constructive working relationship with Moscow. The ending of the CIA program was not a condition of the cease-fire negotiations according to officials.
Second, our "ally" Turkey has ratted out the location of US secret military bases in Syria and Iraq:
In a move that has angered the U.S. for obvious reason, Turkey’s state-run news agency, Anadolu Agency, has leaked the precise locations of U.S. bases in northern Syria. The move - which exposes the exact locations of American soldiers on the front lines in the war-torn nation has sent the ongoing feud between the two NATO allies to new lows. As Bloomberg details, in reports published in both Turkish and English on Tuesday, Anadolu provided detailed information about 10 U.S. bases in northern Syria, including troop counts and a map of the U.S. force presence in the Turkish version.
Without citing specific sources, the state-run news agency unveiled the ten US outposts located in areas controlled by “terrorist” Kurdish militias in the provinces of Aleppo, Hasakah and Raqqa. The reports said that the military outposts are “usually hidden for security reasons, making it hard to be detected.” It said they were located “in the terrorist PKK/PYD-held Syrian territories,” a reference to Kurdish groups that Turkey’s government considers terrorist organizations.
Personally I am happy that Trump is putting an end to the CIA covert program to provoke and promote war in Syria. The human cost of this idiotic policy alone justifies killing it. I am pleasantly surprised by Trump's decision. This clearly pokes a finger in the eyes of the Saudis and the Israelis, who each had a vested interest in backing the rebels against Assad.
I would like to tell you that I have tremendous insight into what Trump is thinking. I don't. Let me give you one possibility--Putin provided Trump positive steps to promote an Israeli/Palestinian peace process if the United States backs off of Syria. Here's another possibility (suggested by Colonel Lang)--Putin and French President Macron have delivered a coordinated message to Trump and have succeeded in getting him to understand some of the key dynamics in the Middle East.
Here's the bottomline. I really do not know. What do you think? Think of this as an open seminar. Put on your thinking caps.
I don't recall our requiring Syrian assistance. The problem with disentanglement lies in DC. And if we are now so solicitous of the Kurds' fate, why were we going after relatively tolerant Syria and not Turkey?
Posted by: sid_finster | 20 July 2017 at 10:56 PM
Budget may mean a lot.
Would France send troops to Africa time and again, or no more?
Would France boost NATO tax, as Trump demands, or not?
Would France co-create non-NATO EU Army or not?
Those all are budget issues among other.
Posted by: Arioch The | 21 July 2017 at 05:37 AM
> One wonders if the US does or does not have a plan to deal with that situation without resorting to WWIII.
Which USA ? Clinton's one or Trump's one?
Clinton's plan would include attacking Russian Army, getting harmed by returned fire, throwing a tantrum of Russian aggression and impeaching Trump.
Whether US soldiers in Syria would survive it or not she would care exactly as much as she cared for US guardians of embassy in Benghazi.
Posted by: Arioch The | 21 July 2017 at 05:41 AM
I think you watch too much House or Cards
Posted by: Rodney | 21 July 2017 at 06:46 AM
Tyler, I thought you knew me. I thought you thought me above that kind of bullshit. Louise Mensch?!! Do I strike you as that naive and dumb? But I guess we are both wrong....
You think I WANT this kind of thing, welcome what is coming, for the President of my Nation? I am calling it as a lawyer who has worked on investigations. Period. If I get it wrong...I will be the first to celebrate. I do not want to see, once more, as if the we have not seen it enough, the leadership paralysis by this bullshit.
But you are, to my genuine surprise, and disappointment, a one trick pony...ad hominem attacks. So...have at it alone. Done with this discussion.
Posted by: jonst | 21 July 2017 at 06:49 AM
I would not imagine that "probable cause" will be hard to come up with. Just a guess, not based on any access to the 'facts' as they stand now. But if past is prologue, they will get their probable cause predicated on financial transactions. It is not a big hurdle to overcome. It has nothing, or little, to do with whether it is justified or not.
Posted by: jonst | 21 July 2017 at 06:52 AM
Arioch,
France is the only other NATO member with any force projection capability. That's why they could succeed in Operation Serval. Had they not done so ISIS would have a base of for operation and growth in Africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Serval
Posted by: Fred | 21 July 2017 at 01:36 PM
Trump should have issued wholesale presidential pardons months ago to nip the witch hunt against him in the bud. Very few people can withstand a multi million dollar federal investigation. Same as the Whitewater (an Arkansas land deal) evolved into impeaching Clinton for a consensual blow job, the ongoing Russian investigation will find something on Trump.
Posted by: TimmyB | 21 July 2017 at 01:53 PM
At one time, I read, 40% of the US military's hardware was in Iraq - heavy tanks, light tanks, artillery pieces, humvees, APCs, lorries and so on.
If one were to believe your scenario, US would have to transport into that theatre about the same amount of materiale or more. And were would the embarkation point be, in Aqaba? That is a 7-hour drive, may be longer to Damascus.
I remain unpersuaded.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 21 July 2017 at 02:56 PM
Fred,
I've read that it's probably money laundering. As jonst said right above, this type of investigation will spread out, from possible collusion to individual financial dealings. We've seen this many times before.
Posted by: TonyL | 21 July 2017 at 06:02 PM
jonst,
So they'll search the financial transactions then use them expost facto to create the probable cause to begin with? Somehow that doesn't surprise me. The State of New York, home of many of Trumps enemies, has had years to do just that with no effect. Second question, who is the next politician the establishment will be doing this too?
Posted by: Fred | 21 July 2017 at 06:10 PM
TimmyB,
What a wonderful precident. Get elected, pardon everybody up front.
Posted by: Fred | 21 July 2017 at 06:12 PM