Shortly after announcing their de-escalation zone plan, the R+6 began their wide offensive to the east. It’s time for a review of operations and possible plans for future operations. We’ll begin with the a cogent and concise comment made on 27 June by alexandar.
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Securing the Salamiyah-Resafa road is very important as it will reduce the Tiger Forces supply line from 225 km to 65 km. In case the Tiger Force goes on the offensive toward the Euphrates River, having a shorter supply line is necessary. That's IMO the only COA possible for the Tiger Force. All roads south of Rusafa are mountainous, with few to no possibility to bypass and take IS blocking forces by the rear. Akin of operations zones in Lebanon or Afghanistan where a single platoon can stop a brigade days after days and delay his move forward. It will be a long and deadly COA through these mountains.
A three axis move :
- North : Tiger Forces up to Euphrates River to cut Raqqa-Deir Ezzor road.
- Center : 5th Corps to fix as much as possible IS forces to defend Al Suknah.
- South : 5th Corps+Hezbollah + Hashd Al-Sha’abi + Liwaa Fatemiyoun conquer T2 and then Al Bukamal to cut the IS supply line from Iraq
IS will have to fight on three different fronts at the same time with no tactical priority, each of these three offensives being able to end the Deir Ezzor siege.
Well, unless TRUMP begins WW3 following a new false chemical attack.
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It’s hard to argue with alexandar’s logic and reading of the military situation. I especially appreciate his analysis of the terrain between Rusafa and Deir Ezzor. The Tiger Forces are currently clearing the Salamiyah-Resafa road. They are now 15 to 17 km from doing so. A question remains whether they will close the gap and encircle the IS forces north of the road or allow them to evacuate that area before becoming encircled. Once that is done, the Tiger Forces will turn back to the east with the goal of interdicting the IS forces that are bound to leave Raqqa enroute to Deir Ezzor. I believe that COA would be more effective in relieving pressure on the defenders of Deir Ezzor than attempting the difficult route south to Deir Ezzor.
The IS salient south of the Salamiyah-Resafa road and east of Homs is now being addressed by another SAA offensive spearheaded by the newly reequipped and retrained Desert Hawks. A video of the Hawks arrival in the area just east of Salamiyah show a large number of T-90 main battle tanks and BMP-1s on tank transporters. There are also plenty of technicals including Toyota Land Cruisers and 6x6 trucks mounted with ZSU-23-2 guns. Accompanying the Hawks are the Military Shield Forces and National Defense Forces (NDF) in this developing offensive. This large offensive will force the IS to either remain/reinforce their positions in this area or pull back towards Deir Ezzor and cede close to a hundred IS-held villages that span across eastern Hama and eastern Homs. to the advancing SAA forces. Either option benefits the SAA more than IS.
On the Palmyra front, the 5th Legion and the 18th Tank Division continue their push towards Al Suknah. Progress is steady, but slow. IS forces have been fortifying positions along this most likely axis to Deir Ezzor for well over a year. The pressure will continue, but I, along with a few other armchair observers, no longer see this as the most likely axis for the eventual relief of Deir Ezzor. Nor do I see the drive to Al Bukamal and north along the Euphrates as the most likely axis. That run along the Syrian-Iraqi border to Al Bukamal will continue, but the populated area along the Euphrates is also strongly held by IS forces. It will not be an easy drive along the river.
I believe the most likely route for the relief of Deir Ezzor is northeast across the flat desert from the Humaymah-T3 area directly towards the hills overlooking the airport at Deir Ezzor. The R+6 seems to be reinforcing the success in this area with highly mobile mixed forces fully capable of taking advantage of the open terrain and lack of fortified IS positions. This video of the SAA taking of the Zenobia Desert Camp offers a superb glimpse of the make up of the SAA and allied forces engaged in battle in this area and the nature of the battle itself.
In addition to the broad offensive to the east, the R+6 is engaged with the jihadists formerly known as Al Qaeda at Quneitra near the Golan Heights. Here the jihadists launched a three pronged offensive to take Baath City a few days ago. HTS and the FSA established a new “operation room” and announced the start of operation “Road to Damascus” on 24 June. The jihadists in this area have received substantial logistical and medical support from the Israelis. Over the last few days, they have also also received Israeli tactical air support from IAF F-16s and armed drones. These air attacks were aimed largely against the SAA artillery positions in the area. I’m sure the IDF is also represented in the “operation room” established to support this jihadi offensive. After some initial success, the jihadists were beaten back by the SAA allied Golan Regiment and Quneitra Hawks militias. Fighting is continuing at this front.
Throughout Syria, the forces allied with Damascus are doing well. The Russian program to reorganize and modernize the SAA and Air Force is bearing fruit. Iran and Hezbollah are playing a substantial role in this success. But the war is far from over. To the north, Turkey is still longing to establish a substantial presence in Aleppo and is making noises towards Afrin. I believe this threat is being addressed behind the scenes by Putin and Lavrov. They have substantial carrot and stick leverage against Erdogan. I don’t think they are hesitant to use either one. The Coalition will continue to use the Kurds in an attempt to partition Syria. I am also convinced that Putin and Lavrov are working behind the scenes to convince the Rojava Kurds to pursue a more reasonable road within a united Syria. What these two are saying to the Israelis and Saudis is also of great interest to me. All in all, I feel what’s going on behind the diplomatic scenes is as important as what’s happening on the battlefield to the future of Syria.
Aleksandar, my apologies for taking the liberty of making minor changes to your original comment. I trust I have not changed any of the points you made. Your command of the English language is “not so bad.”
TTG
https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/06/27/who-is-losing-and-who-is-winning-in-syria/
aleksandar -
Regarding your preferred COA: "Tiger offensive from Rusafa to Al Ma'dan and At Tibni..."
Do you perceive Tiger Forces going cross country to Ma'adan? Or could they move up to route 4 at Ratiah and roll down that Highway to Ma'adan? That seems to me would require coordination with both the SDF and their Coalition backers. Is that possible? Especially after what happened at al-Tanf and Ja'din?
Posted by: Gene O. | 30 June 2017 at 01:33 PM
aleksander
that may yet happen when the Khanassar Pocket is thought to be secured. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 30 June 2017 at 01:34 PM
Colonel -
I never left. Since banishment I have been lurking.
Posted by: mike | 30 June 2017 at 01:46 PM
Thank you for your comments.
Where I differ with you is that I believe that there was a political settlement as well in Europe called the Peace of Yalta. That is now defunct and such a political as well as military equilibrium does not obtain in Europe.
Furthermore, the development of hyper-sonic weapons - pursued by the Russian Federation, the United States, the People's Republic of China, and very likely by France and the United Kingdom and India and Pakistan will leave precisely that which Gareev objected as the only viable option.
In regards to the Islamic Republic of Iran's strategies; her leaders are making those decisions and not I.
The future course of events will demonstrate the utility of those decisions made by the Islamic Republic's leaders; given the fact that Iran, a declared neutral country, was invaded in 1914 and again in 1941, was attacked with impunity with chemical weapons (an international instrument of disarmament) and NPT was shredded in her case by P5.
This is precisely an issue of Justice - putting things in proper order and place - which in this case, is reduced to "Should the Iranian people remain alive or not?"
Very many commentators on this site are protected by nuclear weapons under the MAD doctrine - and neither UK nor France are disarming.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 30 June 2017 at 01:57 PM
By the way, many Russian Jews actually do leave Israel for Berlin, San Francisco and London. The reasons are varied but are un-related to security concerns - they leave for better opportunities, for wanting to resume the cosmopolitan life that they had in Moscow and Saint Petersburgh, and being out of the oppressive religious parochialism of Israeli Jews.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 30 June 2017 at 02:00 PM
The route from T2 to Deir Ezzor bypasses Al Mayadin by about 4 km. It should be feasible to establish strong defensive positions against any attack against that route from Mayadin. The more ISIS wants to throw forces against such defenses rather than keeping them for defense of urban areas, the merrier. If besieged Deir Ezzor can hold off ISIS with helicopter supplies, so can positions west of Mayadin with all the heavy weaponry they need coming from T2. Yes, supply line security is an issue that would need to be addressed between T2 and Deir Ezzor. It was also an issue that needed to be addressed between Ithria and Aleppo, but that route was sufficient to support operations that liberated Aleppo and the eastern Aleppo province, in addition to providing for the needs of the civilian population.
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced T2 is the key to Deir Ezzor.
Posted by: Thirdeye | 30 June 2017 at 02:32 PM
It was something on a topic that has been of frequent interest to the SST readership in the not-too-distant past, and didn't fit perfectly into any of the threads which are active at the moment, although it is relevant to the unfolding present situation in Syria/Iraq.
Others seemed to appreciate the link. Sorry you didn't.
Posted by: sid_finster | 30 June 2017 at 02:44 PM
pl,
I still like the idea of a drive from T2 to DeZ bypassing the Euphrates and Al Mayadin. It would call for a lighter, mobile force. If I was called to plan and lead such a foray, I would assemble a technical-heavy column with less MBTs than I've seen in action on this front. Dedicated fire support would come from mortars, ATGMs and accompanying rotary wing support. Throw in some of those 106 recoiless rifles I've seen in the videos for old times' sake. Resupply would rely on FARRPs established with Russian and Syrian Mi-17s much like the reinforcement of DeZ was accomplished at least twice before. The lift capacity is there.
Thirdeye and Gene O have noted the road from T2 to Al Mayadin. That's a good feature to guide this raid-like offensive. This force may be too light to actually break through to the DeZ pocket. In that case, the force could be beefed up with infantry by airmobile insertion outside the pocket. That's probably a good idea anyway. The immediate goal of this offensive would be to expand the DeZ pocket to its former size before US airstrikes led to the jihadis splitting the pocket in two. That should suffice until one of the more conventional offensive columns arrive from the west, south or north.
The offensive to capture Al Bukamal would continue. It's just too logical an idea to drop in favor of my hair brained "DeZ dash."I think even that offensive will require reinforcement prior to assaulting Al Bukamal and moving up the Euphrates.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 30 June 2017 at 03:20 PM
In looking at the difficulties involved (terrain, logistic lines ect), first question that needs to be asked - Is there an urgent need to link up with Deir Ezzor?
Is Deir Ezzor in danger of being over run?
What are the casualty ratios of SAA to ISIS as compared to other fronts? At DE SAA are in defensive positions and ISIS are attacking. On all other fronts ISIS are in defensive positions and R+6 are attacking.
R+6 front lines have been getting longer as they have created pockets. A long thin logistics line to DE would stretch this even further an thin out manpower.
If DE is not thought to be in danger of being over run, and casualty ratios are good compared to other fronts, then it seems likely that all other fronts will move towards Deir Ezzor by creating pockets and then clearing them until finally a link up occurs. ???
Posted by: Peter AU | 30 June 2017 at 05:19 PM
Just as a broken clock is right twice a day sometimes DEBKAfile nails it and I think the meat of their June 30 report, "Kissinger, Mattis lay bridges for Trump-Putin talks," is one of those times. This is my understanding, based on DEBKA's analysis and those from other sources I've reviewed during the past month:
Mattis has wanted to beat "ISIS" in Syria so he can move on to other tasks. But he's been up against the kind of political players in Washington/NSC who turn warfare into silly putty. Now Mattis, backed by the Joint Chiefs and Kissinger (and I believe also Tillerson), has gained ground against the factions in the White House and Congress that got tangled up with Israeli/Saudi aims in Syria in particular regarding Iran.
(As to how Kissinger got involved in this -- Trump counted him as an adviser even before the presidential election, and he's on very good terms with Putin from way back. Now that Trump is seeing the prospect of his foreign policy goals in the Middle East in tatters, it looks from the DEBKA report that he's actually willing to act on Kissinger's advice, at least about Russia in Syria, and actually listen to Mattis about how to fight a war.)
From DEBKA's report:
http://www.debka.com/article/26123/Kissinger-Mattis-lay-bridges-for-Trump-Putin-talks
BEGIN QUOTES
This week, the defense secretary and military chiefs were very clear about American priorities in Syria, contending that US military action should be confined to the war on the Islamic State terrorists. The only part of the country of interest therefore should be the Euphrates River Valley in eastern Syria.
[...]
In his comments this week to reporters, Mattis said: “To avoid the seemingly inevitable collisions between US-backed fighters and pro-Syrian government forces, including their respective [Russian] air support… the Euphrates River Valley would be carved up into 'deconfliction' areas."
The defense secretary showed no interest in US troops engaging in battle to curtail the Russian-Iranian military presence in Syria, or hit back at the creeping takeover by Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah forces of the strategic Syrian-Iraqi border. Mattis was totally focused on the Euphrates Valley and the ISIS concentrations there.
END QUOTES
The wording of the above paragraph suggests the IDF is not overjoyed with the turn of events. But DEBKA goes on to warn that opponents of a single-minded American focus on wiping out ISIS in Syria will do everything in their power to derail the Trump-Putin talk on the sidelines of the Hamburg G20 Summit (July 7-8).
DEBKA adds darkly, "The White House and the Kremlin may be confronted with disturbing facts in an effort to upend any inter-power equilibrium that this summit may offer."
I'm betting that Mattis, with backup from the Joint Chiefs, is prepared to go to the wall to counter such opponents. I think that would include going against McMaster if necessary. And would include quashing any more White House stunts to frame Assad for a chemical weapon attack.
By the way the Rt. Hon. Sir Michael Fallon was None Too Pleased with that latest chemical weapon stunt from the White House. When I relocate the quotes I'll post them here. They're a doozie.
None of the above assuages my worry that Kissinger still wants to see a de-facto balkanization of Syria. But the Russian success in Syria might have changed his mind since he first suggested such a plan, which was in mid-October 2015 ("A Path Out of the Middle East Collapse" -- WSJ) -- at the time when Russia was still preparing to launch its air campaign in Syria.
In any case Kissinger now has bigger fish to fry; from all accounts he wants to do everything he can to help defuse the threat of a hot war between the U.S. and Russia. If part of that is promoting cooperation between the two governments in their Syria campaigns -- from DEBKA's report today it looks like he's all-in.
Posted by: Pundita | 30 June 2017 at 06:45 PM
SAA's logistics line to west Raqqa just got a whole lot shorter with the opening of the Ithriya - Resafa road. Their front has also been shortened with turning the Palmyra salient into a front extending to the border and shrinking the Khanassar pocket. One new feature of SAA seems to be capability for deep mobile operations, like we saw in southeastern Aleppo and south of Palmyra.
ISIS seems to use some of their more marginal forces, including child soldiers, in their Deir Ezzor attacks. The pressure against ISIS in places like east Hama, between Palmyra and Suknah, west Raqqa, and now T2, forces ISIS to commit their first-line forces, to the benefit of the defense of Deir Ezzor. My guess is that slowing the operational pace and allowing ISIS to regain balance could have bad consequences for Deir Ezzor.
Posted by: Thirdeye | 30 June 2017 at 09:16 PM
Thirdeye
Rather than slowing the operational pace, I am thinking that if Deir Ezzor pocket is solid, maximum pressure could be placed on the other fronts - creating and clearing pockets.
Diverting forces to create a logistics line to DE would reduce pressure on other fronts?
With the Saudi/Qatar spat, their proxies in west Syria will most likely be turning against each other, Qatar proxies perhaps siding with Turk proxies, so I don't see any major AQ offensive occurring there. This leaves all air power free for CAS if required at DE.
Posted by: Peter AU | 01 July 2017 at 12:06 AM
If I remenber well, in 1961, Irak has to abandon his sovereignty on some islands south BASSORAH to Iran. The aim was to sign a cessation of hostilities with Kurds and stop Iran help to them. Iraq Army was not able to crish Kurds rebellion.
A lot of Iraqis feel humiliated facing such weakness.
One of them was Saddam Hussein.
Posted by: aleksandar | 01 July 2017 at 06:17 AM
IMO Tiger Force is SAA most experienced and capable force.Sized for assault.Cleaning the Khanassar pocket can be done by Republican Guard.
Posted by: aleksandar | 01 July 2017 at 06:44 AM
Seems there is a technical trail along pipeline from rusafa toward east. Tiger can use it to bypass SDF and then join a road. But an alternative route is needed to push forward a significant force strenght.
Only a 35 km move with CAS. I have done such thing in Niger and chad through unsafe areas.
Posted by: aleksandar | 01 July 2017 at 07:17 AM
Hi James,
You're speaking for yourself when you write that it's hard to read DEBKA as anything more than propaganda. Of course you shouldn't pay attention to DEBKA if you don't have the knowledge to separate the chaff from the grain and don't think in terms of intelligence gathering.
As to your statement that you would "never bother going to a confirmed warmonger as way to find peace" -- that makes us two very different people because I'm not looking for peace; I'm looking for victory.
Those who look for victory have to take their information where they can find it, else no police detective would cultivate informants from within a criminal syndicate.
It's the same with intelligence gathering in war. And in the post-9/11 era it's the same with taking in news reports that touch on war. The news consumer is dead in the water if he doesn't learn to think of the news as 'intelligence' -- as data that must be fit into a larger picture to arrive at a determination about it.
If you told me the public shouldn't have to learn to think like an intelligence analyst just to keep up with the day's news, I'd agree. But that's the way things are in this era.
Posted by: Pundita | 01 July 2017 at 07:34 AM
From a quick search I can't find video showing U.K. DefSec Michael Fallon's complete statement on Tuesday June 27 but the following passages from a June 27 RT report are good enough (emphasis mine)
https://www.rt.com/uk/394281-fallon-airstrikes-trump-syria/
BEGIN QUOTES
Britain is “absolutely” ready to support retaliation by US President Donald Trump against Bashar Assad in Syria, UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon has said.
The US claimed on Monday that Assad was “potentially” preparing a deadly chemical weapons attack on rebel forces, and threatened to hit back with new bombing raids.
Fallon said action should be justified, legal, and proportionate, but said in those circumstances the UK’s support for US action by Trump would be unwavering. He added that the UK backed the US missile strikes in April, which Trump ordered after an alleged chemical attack by Assad.
“As always in war, the military action you use must be justified, it must be legal, it must be proportionate, it must be necessary. In the last case it was.
“If the Americans take similar action again, I want to be clear, we will support it.”
Fallon said the US was monitoring the situation in Syria, but had not shared any specific evidence with the British government.
He said he expects to discuss the situation with US Defense Secretary General James Mattis when they meet at a gathering of NATO defense ministers later this week [on Thursday June 29]
Those last two statements are a giveaway that the British government would not be led down the garden path again, and that Britain was giving the U.S. two days to present them with evidence of a planned chemical attack or close down the hoax.
As we know the US called off the hoax before the NATO summit.
But I would read even more into Fallon's last two remarks. I'd say he was as much stating in public -- in front of the entire world press -- that the US had no evidence whatsoever because if it had, it would have immediately shared it with Britain, its chief Coalition partner in Syria.
If my interpretation is correct, Fallon's very public message to the American government is a significant development -- and probably was repeated behind closed doors at the NATO meeting, and could be repeated in some form at the Hamburg Summit July 7-8 if the Brits think the Trump Admin. didn't hear the warning clearly the first time.
Posted by: Pundita | 01 July 2017 at 08:43 AM
PeterAU -
Regarding Deir ez-Zor: General Zahreddine does seem to be doing a good job there holding off Daeshis. So far.
However, unless he is massively reinforced, there is the possibility that DeZ may fall. Yes, the Daesh caliphate is in disarray and on their last legs. But they are still strong enough in the Euphrates River valley to mount a last ditch attempt to take DeZ. The leadership has fled Raqqa to Mayadin, just 40 klicks from DeZ.
If I were Assad or his planning staff, I would not take the chance that Zahreddine can hold out once again. The risk is too large. So either mount a major airlift of additional troops - or send in a relief column. I tend to favor Aleksandar's push by the Tiger Forces if that pipeline road can sustain the logistics load. Or perhaps more than one relief column from multiple axes.
Posted by: mike | 01 July 2017 at 11:19 AM
Pundita that is a fairly charitable interpretation of Fallon's comments. The less charitable - like me - might be inclined to see it as blanket endorsement of any future actions the US may want to take - or NATO on their behalf. The 'if it is legal' bit being pro forma, this would be more in line with our previous positions. An assurance that the US have convinced themselves of the righteousness of their case has always been enough previously and this Government does not seem likely to break with tradition.
(sorry it is not as a reply-to-comment but typepad does not seem to be giving me that option at present)
Posted by: JJackson | 01 July 2017 at 01:10 PM
I think we're on the same page about drawing pressure off Deir Ezzor by maximizing it against ISIS elsewhere. IMO a push north of T2 towards Deir Ezzor would fit that. ISIS seems to be committing north of Humaymah, in open country that favors the offense and without the benefit of long preparation that they have south of Suknah. The more they commit in the east, the less they have to attack Deir Ezzor. A drive north of T2 would also expose ISIS' new capital at Mayadin and their entire position on the south bank of the Euphrates east of Deir Ezzor.
Posted by: Thirdeye | 01 July 2017 at 03:53 PM
JJ Jackson -- Times have changed in the U.K., and they changed suddenly and radically just over the past weeks since the snap election. While it could be argued that underlying factors of the blowout had been forming for a long time, the argument could be made only with hindsight.
We'll know more from the Hamburg G20 Summit.
Posted by: Pundita | 01 July 2017 at 06:54 PM
Iran could just be awaiting a more suitable time to develop nuclear weapons and instead concentrate on missiles.
Right now the West has a massive advantage in implementing economic sanctions for violations of NPT (real or not) but as populations age in Europe and their economies stagnate and/or decrease things will change.
If African and Asian countries copy China's path successfully sanctions from the West will not be effective unless there really is global support for them. But we are talking about the last quarter of the century for that to have happened.
Posted by: Poul | 02 July 2017 at 08:10 AM