Syrian Update - TTG

Shortly after announcing their de-escalation zone plan, the R+6 began their wide offensive to the east. It’s time for a review of operations and possible plans for future operations. We’ll begin with the a cogent and concise comment made on 27 June by alexandar. 

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Securing the Salamiyah-Resafa road is very important as it will reduce the Tiger Forces supply line from 225 km to 65 km. In case the Tiger Force goes on the offensive toward the Euphrates River, having a shorter supply line is necessary. That's IMO the only COA possible for the Tiger Force. All roads south of Rusafa are mountainous, with few to no possibility to bypass and take IS blocking forces by the rear. Akin of operations zones in Lebanon or Afghanistan where a single platoon can stop a brigade days after days and delay his move forward. It will be a long and deadly COA through these mountains.

A three axis move :

- North : Tiger Forces up to Euphrates River to cut Raqqa-Deir Ezzor road.

- Center : 5th Corps to fix as much as possible IS forces to defend Al Suknah.

- South : 5th Corps+Hezbollah + Hashd Al-Sha’abi + Liwaa Fatemiyoun conquer T2 and then Al Bukamal to cut the IS supply line from Iraq

IS will have to fight on three different fronts at the same time with no tactical priority, each of these three offensives being able to end the Deir Ezzor siege. 

Well, unless TRUMP begins WW3 following a new false chemical attack.

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It’s hard to argue with alexandar’s logic and reading of the military situation. I especially appreciate his analysis of the terrain between Rusafa and Deir Ezzor. The Tiger Forces are currently clearing the Salamiyah-Resafa road. They are now 15 to 17 km from doing so. A question remains whether they will close the gap and encircle the IS forces north of the road or allow them to evacuate that area before becoming encircled. Once that is done, the Tiger Forces will turn back to the east with the goal of interdicting the IS forces that are bound to leave Raqqa enroute to Deir Ezzor. I believe that COA would be more effective in relieving pressure on the defenders of Deir Ezzor than attempting the difficult route south to Deir Ezzor. 

The IS salient south of the Salamiyah-Resafa road and east of Homs is now being addressed by another SAA offensive spearheaded by the newly reequipped and retrained Desert Hawks. A video of the Hawks arrival in the area just east of Salamiyah show a large number of T-90 main battle tanks and BMP-1s on tank transporters. There are also plenty of technicals including Toyota Land Cruisers and 6x6 trucks mounted with ZSU-23-2 guns. Accompanying the Hawks are the Military Shield Forces and National Defense Forces (NDF) in this developing offensive. This large offensive will force the IS to either remain/reinforce their positions in this area or pull back towards Deir Ezzor and cede close to a hundred IS-held villages that span across eastern Hama and eastern Homs. to the advancing SAA forces. Either option benefits the SAA more than IS.

On the Palmyra front, the 5th Legion and the 18th Tank Division continue their push towards Al Suknah. Progress is steady, but slow. IS forces have been fortifying positions along this most likely axis to Deir Ezzor for well over a year. The pressure will continue, but I, along with a few other armchair observers, no longer see this as the most likely axis for the eventual relief of Deir Ezzor. Nor do I see the drive to Al Bukamal and north along the Euphrates as the most likely axis. That run along the Syrian-Iraqi border to Al Bukamal will continue, but the populated area along the Euphrates is also strongly held by IS forces. It will not be an easy drive along the river.

I believe the most likely route for the relief of Deir Ezzor is northeast across the flat desert from the Humaymah-T3 area directly towards the hills overlooking the airport at Deir Ezzor. The R+6 seems to be reinforcing the success in this area with highly mobile mixed forces fully capable of taking advantage of the open terrain and lack of fortified IS positions. This video of the SAA taking of the Zenobia Desert Camp offers a superb glimpse of the make up of the SAA and allied forces engaged in battle in this area and the nature of the battle itself.

In addition to the broad offensive to the east, the R+6 is engaged with the jihadists formerly known as Al Qaeda at Quneitra near the Golan Heights. Here the jihadists launched a three pronged offensive to take Baath City a few days ago. HTS and the FSA established a new “operation room” and announced the start of operation “Road to Damascus” on 24 June. The jihadists in this area have received substantial logistical and medical support from the Israelis. Over the last few days, they have also also received Israeli tactical air support from IAF F-16s and armed drones. These air attacks were aimed largely against the SAA artillery positions in the area. I’m sure the IDF is also represented in the “operation room” established to support this jihadi offensive. After some initial success, the jihadists were beaten back by the SAA allied Golan Regiment and  Quneitra Hawks militias. Fighting is continuing at this front.

Throughout Syria, the forces allied with Damascus are doing well. The Russian program to reorganize and modernize the SAA and Air Force is bearing fruit. Iran and Hezbollah are playing a substantial role in this success. But the war is far from over. To the north, Turkey is still longing to establish a substantial presence in Aleppo and is making noises towards Afrin. I believe this threat is being addressed behind the scenes by Putin and Lavrov. They have substantial carrot and stick leverage against Erdogan. I don’t think they are hesitant to use either one. The Coalition will continue to use the Kurds in an attempt to partition Syria. I am also convinced that Putin and Lavrov are working behind the scenes to convince the Rojava Kurds to pursue a more reasonable road within a united Syria. What these two are saying to the Israelis and Saudis is also of great interest to me. All in all, I feel what’s going on behind the diplomatic scenes is as important as what’s happening on the battlefield to the future of Syria.      

Aleksandar, my apologies for taking the liberty of making minor changes to your original comment. I trust I have not changed any of the points you made. Your command of the English language is “not so bad.”

TTG

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/06/27/who-is-losing-and-who-is-winning-in-syria/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-turns-tables-al-qaeda-rebels-despite-israeli-airstrikes/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israeli-air-force-helps-jihadist-rebels-beat-back-syrian-army-offensive/

Comments

[Bill Herschel]

Enormously informative. Thanks.

I used to say when Bush invaded Iraq to look for WMD, that the U.S. had entered the Iran-Iraq war on the side of Iran. Is it true to any extent to say that ISIS is the Sunni Iraqi Army blowing back? Who are these guys? Lots of them I guess are either Chechian or crypto-Chechian who certainly have Russia in their sights. Whoever they are, they're not pushovers it would appear.

[Fred]

"What these two are saying to the Israelis and Saudis is also of great interest to me."

What the Israelis and Saudis tell us the Russians are saying would be interesting to know too. Sadly the "cat's out of the bag" as far as our ability to read Russian message traffic thanks to ant-Trump leakers and the press.

[Red Cloud]

What is the Israeli motive behind all of these recent airstrikes? They expose themselves a little more each time they reach out and help Al-Qaeda, so I presume they wouldn't be doing this without some specific goal.

Is taking Baath City really that significant? IMO it would only delay the inevitable. These airstikes are nowhere near enough to propel their head choppers all the way to Damascus. It seems like a rather minor distraction to the R+6, at great cost to the zionists.

[Babak Makkinejad]

When Saddam Hussein was executed, there were people distributing sweets on the streets of Iranian cities.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Russia's Answer:

The testing on 06/27/2017 from a submarine an ICBM with the capability to carry 10 nuclear warheads of 100 kilotons each; next followed by the statement of Vladimir Putin on 06/28/2017:

"Only advanced powerful mobile armed forces are capable of securing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country and protecting us and our allies from any potential aggressor, as well as from pressure and intimidation by those who do not like the independent sovereign Russia.”

David Habakkuk, are you paying attention?

[b]

Unofficial news says that U.S. is moving its proxy forces out of the al-Tanf area into north-east Syria. Al-Tanf will obviously be given up. It no longer serves any U.S. purpose. The plans to occupy south-east Syria are for now buried. Commercial traffic between Damascus and Baghdad can resume.

[The Twisted Genius]

b,

I've seen that, too. Also seen mention of airlifting the al-Tanf jihadis to Shadaddi. Supposed to be part of some agreement between Washington and Damascus. That last part I have no faith in. I wonder how many of them the US is talking about taking or how many would be willing to go?

[sid_finster]

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/…/ex-weapons-inspec…/

Scott Ritter...boy howdy did he ever catch holy hell for refusing to go along with the Establishment Narrative on WMD in Iraq. Every neocon, every establishment shill and apologist called him a traitor or worse, and he was essentially blacklisted for being right.

Well, Scott Ritter is back, and he's at it again!

[JerseyJeffersonian]

Sid,

Something is amiss with the web address that you posted. Here's the one that worked for me:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/ex-weapons-inspector-trumps-sarin-claims-built-on-lie/

And my God, does Mr. Ritter deliver on this one. I am going to spread this article around immediately.

[The Twisted Genius]

All,

Appears the YPG/SDF have surrounded Raqqa from the south. If true, that's good news for the R+6. The IS jihadis will have to DIP.

[Peter AU]

For months now, ISIS have been leaving positions they have had time to fortify to go and attack Deir Ezzor, which has been operating like a very efficient bug zapper.
Any chance will be left to operate as such until much of the desert has been cleaned up?

[b]

I also have my doubts about an "agreement" - sounds like the invented "deconfliction zone".

I am not sure how many of those fighters are under some "tribal authority" - i.e. were delegated by their family for a certain local purpose. Those are unlikely to go. Those who are just mercenaries may do it for the money. I doubt though that the Kurds will be very welcoming to them but they probably can use them as cannon fodder in this or that fight.

[ISL]

TTG thanks for the analysis,

There was a report that Russia shot down a number of US drones over the med (from Israelis news - uncertain quality), while radar painting of US airplanes has had the US back off attempting to fly air cover for ISIS. The timing could not be better for the R+6.

It baffles me what the long term US strategy is to pick the Kurds over Turkey - it is painfully obvious its one or the other, and Russia has the carrots to ensure the US choice will be a major strategic mistake. Given the strategic US decisions since the Turkish coup - the coup against Erdogan seems consistent with US policy of using the Kurds to destabilize Syria.

made a choice between Turkey and the Kurds agree the diplomatic pressure on Turkey is key, but of course if it was not for the changes on the battlefield the diplomatic dynamic would be very different.

[confusedponderer]

Babak,
well, Saddam Hussein has not exactly shown himself as a friend of iran. The sweets thing could be explained by that. The losses of the iran-iraqi wars were severe and did hurt iran a lot. Stuff like that is hard to forget.

Speaking of memory, I have a curious little story on this:

I remember that, back in the day, my dad was in the university hospital in Aachen after a heart attack. I visited him a lot and when he was sleeping or being treated I roamed around in the huge hospital, a new world to me, rather than just sitting and waiting on a seat in the floor.

Notably, there was a section in the hospital with SMG armed police standing at the entrance, leaving only staff through. That was curious. I was young then and quite curious so I straight asked the cops what the hell they were doing there and got a straight answer. They told me that they were guarding the treating of iranian casualties of the iran-iraq war and that I ought to go away.

[sid_finster]

Sorry about that.

Oddly enough I am having the same problem when posting this link to FB.

Go figure.

[sid_finster]

And yes, Mr. Ritter delivers.

[turcopolier]

sid_finster

I don't think Scott Ritter has anything useful to contribute to the present discussion. pl

[Gene O]

Die-In-Place?

[turcopolier]

TTG

Great job. It really looks to me from a map look-see that the ground from the T-3 area is a lot more difficult than would be an advance to the finished road north of albukamal and thence to Deir al-Zor. pl

[turcopolier]

Red Cloud

You have not been paying attention. The Izzies want to destroy the Syrian government. To that end they are backing various jihadi groups. they are now desperate because the "opposition" is losing its ass to the R+6. They can only rely on Bibi's agent in the WH for so much. In my long experience of the Izzies as chisel of liaison with IDF intelligence I found that they are remarkably short sighted. Get it? pl

[Walker]

Could have been civilian casualties.

[The Twisted Genius]

Peter AU,

I am reminded of the final line in a Jerry Clower story, "A Coon Hunting Story." John was stuck up in a tree in a fight for his life with a cougar which Jerry described as a souped up bobcat. Both the cat and John were screaming bloody murder. John begged those on the ground to shoot. They responded that they were afraid they would hit John. John replied, "Just shoot in here amongst us, cause one of gots to have some relief."

I would not want to be the poor SOB who's job it was to tell General Issam Zahreddine that we're going to hold off on relieving Deir Ezzor so he can kill off some more jihadis.

[The Twisted Genius]

Gene O, yes. It was also generally assumed to be the mission of a common retrograde operation... DLIC (detachment left in contact).

[Gene O]

There are tertiary roads to Mayadin from T2, which is close to Humayma. From Mayadin they have good roads (route 4 and a parallel) to Deir ez-Zor city, which is 44 klicks NE.

Mayadin lately has been speculated to be the new Daesh capital. From WaPo two days ago:
"The Islamic State is believed to have moved most of its leadership to Mayadin in Syria’s Euphrates Valley southeast of Raqqa, the group’s besieged de facto capital, according to U.S. intelligence officials."

Or at least the place where senior Daeshis are fleeing to with their families. The Iranians probably believe it also as they targeted Mayadin on 18 June with reported surface-to-surface mid-range ballistic missiles (Zolfaghar?).

Deir Ez-Zor seems to be in good hands with General Zahreddine. Why not focus on Mayadin and leave DeZ until later?

[sid_finster]

Turcopolier: why do you think so?