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16 June 2017

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The Twisted Genius

Tyler P. Harwell,

Yes, Dera'a is one of the places where it all began. Homs was also a birthplace of the resistance.

For your other questions, the SAA is almost entirely Syrian nationals as is the Syrian Air Force. The foreign troops are Hebollah and some IRGC formations and various Iraqi militias. Of course there are many Russian and IRGC advisors within the SAA and other militias Within Dera'a the inhabitants are Syrian nationals including many Syrian Druze and a sizable population of Palestinian refugees.

Tyler P. Harwell

No doubt, as that seems all that is spoken. The articles in question seem to take it for granted that there is still a way out from Dera'a, it being so close to the Jordanian border, as is evident from the discussion of negotiations over the border crossing. So, perhaps the encirclement of Dera'a is not complete, but that does not seem to be what you are driving at.

What that is, is not perfectly clear. You seem to need an editor. Would you like me to re-write your comment for you, so that I may respond to it properly ?

Tyler P. Harwell

I don't know. You tell me.

turcopolier

Tyler P Harweel

I believe Barish is a German or Russian. How good is your German? You seem new here. A rule of the house is that denigrating remarks to others will get you banned by me. Do it again and you will be gone. pl

turcopolier

Tyler P Harwell

"Attitude" will also get you banned, or just ban your self and save me the trouble. pl

Kooshy

I voted for Trump and I knew US' Iran policy wouldn't change, if I even voted for Jesus Christ and he got elected to be the president. But I voted for Trump, to change the US policy for US, I wanted to defeat the Borg and make them headache, in that I did. I have no regret.

Tyler P. Harwell

Someone seems to have cared. Besides the families, that is. I would suppose the mosques is where the hotheads were to be found. But I would never have guessed the State Department.

Are you telling me we are trying to put out the fire that we started ? Or something else ? And if something else, just what are we trying to do, now that there is a new team in charge, supposedly averse to our former ways ?

Gene O

TPH -

The salafis were quick to take advantage of the Daraa boys that you speak of. In 2011 fifteen boys, ages ten to fifteen, from well-to-do and large Daraa families were arrested and beaten because of graffiti on grain silos. Security forces fired on the families of the missing boys who marched to the governor's house. The head of the secret police in Daraa, Atef Najeeb, was a cousin of President Assad. That started a tribal blood feud. But that was quickly followed by a significant takeover of the disaffected tribes by the headchoppers - almost like a mini-version of the Bolshevik takeover 100 years ago.

Kooshy

Colonel Lang, I always thought you are somewhere mix of Brando and John Wayne, but I think you also got a lot of Eastwood in your style. BTW I don't want to get banned over this comment.

The Twisted Genius

Tyler P. Harwell,

We are certainly not trying to put out any fire. We and our Gulfie friends are still all in on the "Assad must go" strategy. The new team appears to be even more wedded to the neocon interventionist policies in the ME than the old team.

Barish

No need for that, just to clarify the key point: in the beginning of this year, 2017, the insurgents launched an offensive they dubbed "Death Rather Than Humiliation" primarily targeting the Manshiyah-district. Before then, not much of any activity was evident in the area for the better part of a year, leaving it a "stale front", as I said, made active again by the insurgents' own actions.

Now, given the negative signals Jordan, their key logistics rear, has been sending toward overtly supporting this offensive, with this agreement with Damascus in the making the latest such, one would think that the insurgents would rethink continuing their armed operations and reassess just what their ultimate goal here is. Yet, given the grandiose name of their offensive and Nusra/HTS being a key actor like all too many times before it's of course quite possible that martyrdom in a blaze of glory is the extent of it. Then again, it's entirely possible some foreign operatives whipped them up to launch it, given this latest admission by Mr Hamad Bin Jassim al-Thani, former PM of Qatar, of how the war was organised - see in the following link from 7:30 onwards:

https://charlierose.com/videos/30589&t=7m30s

By the by, he also gives a fairly clear motive at 8:58 as to why Jordan may have gotten uneasy about further continuing to serve insurgents' needs.

Be that as it may, the current insurgency within the country has long moved past the unrest of 2011 and little to do with it anymore, already by virtue of it having progressed - with more than a little openly admitted help from abroad, see above! - into a state of war.

FourthAndLong

Very off topic but it's too good not to share. Multiple (over 13) Russian assassinations carried out on U.K. soil, suppressed by MI 6 and US intel from early oughts onward, and elsewhere.

First of several Buzz Feed pieces.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil?utm_term=.yymgnKnKD&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1#.eeYgqKqKa

From Russia With Blood.

Lavish London mansions. A hand-painted Rolls-Royce. And eight dead friends. For the British fixer Scot Young, working for Vladimir Putin's most vocal critic meant stunning perks – but also constant danger. His gruesome death is one of 14 that US spy agencies have linked to Russia – but the UK police shut down every last case. A bombshell cache of documents today reveals the full story of a ring of death on British soil that the government has ignored.

Peter AU

I spent a bit of time digging for opal. There was a bit of potch, or common opal about the place which is worthless. First hole I dug, I went down to twenty foot with crowbar and shovel. Set up a windlass and my youngest daughter, about twelve at the time and easily conned by her old man, wound the buckets of dirt out. At twenty feet it seemed like hard work so I bought a jackhammer. Found nothing at 42 ft.
Another hole about 12ft deep and a 40 ft tunnel following a seam of potch hoping to see some colour.
Next hole hit a small pocket of gem quality opal at 8ft and said to the daughter "this is the real deal"
Hollywood (I don't go much on fiction) I compare to potch.

LeaNder

That's an interesting statement, Kooshy.

Semi irony alert: My guess would be that close to 75% of potential voters around here voted for Trump. Thus, no surprise there. Admittedly I found myself somehow puzzled by what may have been pro Clinton hypes. Meaning, strictly I can understand somehow. Although confronted with the task I, me, myself, would probably have joined the camp of non-voters. ... third parties, seriously?

Concerning Teddy Kennedy's 'shout', would you be so kind to give me a little context? Without sending me into the wilderness of Cold War studies?

Anna

Great compilation in a sprit of Borgists' battle cry "Russians did it." The insinuation that Russian federation and Russian mafia are the same is particularly touching. Stylistically the compilation is identical to other well-publicized pieces inspired by unnamed high-level officials and promoted by the Empire of FedReserve to keep the flame of Russophobia. The sweet and moving memories of Yeltsin times of a grandiose thievery of Russian resources is palpable throughout the paper. What was the average life-span of men in Russia under Yeltsin - 57? And then the grand heist has been stopped and the Russian federation has started its recovery, which is intolerable for the ziocons.

Babak Makkinejad

It is like this US Congressman said two days ago; the desirability of Shia and Sunni Muslims to kill each other.

Babak Makkinejad

Before that, there was the cry of "Who lost China?"
I wonder if that sentiment of owning foreign people and countris is real in US.
And, if so, is that another manifestation of Puritanism?

Babak Makkinejad

I think it is fair to say that in spite of the best efforts of the Western Fortress and its local allies to create an alternative legitimate authority in Syria to SAR, the "Doctor's" government remains the only legitimate authority - after 6 years of war.
With the failure of that effort, the Western & Co. Policy has become one of trying to bleed R+6.

David Habakkuk

FourthAndLong,

The ‘BuzzFeed’ piece to which you link is a rather transparent attempt by corrupt elements in the American and British intelligence services to prevent the British intervention in your electoral process backfiring spectacularly.

As to the claims. I produced rather conclusive evidence that the Russian government did not deliberately assassinate Alexander Litvinenko in a preliminary discussion of the report by Sir Robert Owen into the affair which was posted on SST back in January 2016.

(See http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/01/david-hakkuk-on-sir-robert-owens-inquiry.html .)

If you look through my responses to comments, you will see that I provide rather cogent reasons to believe that three of the other deaths referred to in the ‘BuzzFeed’ piece – those of Stephen Curtis, Arkadi ‘Badri’ Patarkatsishvili, and Boris Berezovsky – are unlikely to have been the responsibility of the Russian government. I can expand on the evidence relating to all three deaths if anyone is interested.

As I really do not want to see constitutional government in the United States subverted by devious Brits attempting to cover their backsides, it seems appropriate to produce both some more background and also updating in the light of recent developments.

One fundamental problem with the British intervention is that the different parts of it were not coordinated.

Both GCHQ, and their former employee Matt Tait, devoted their energies to trying to support the claims made by ‘CrowdStrike’ and Dmitri Alperovitch that ‘Fancy Bear’, supposedly linked to the GRU, had played a central role in hacking both the DNC and a range of other organisations. So it was Tait who ‘discovered’ the presence of the initials of the founder of the Cheka, Felix Dzerzhinsky, in the ‘metadata’ of the documents produced by ‘Guccifer 2.0.’

(For his account, see https://www.lawfareblog.com/need-official-attribution-russias-dnc-hack .)

There is an irony here, in that the ‘Cheka’ did incalculable damage both to the Red Army and, specifically, to Russian military intelligence. A good account comes in a June 2016 paper by a leading contemporary Russian security intellectual, Andrei Kokoshin, on ‘The German Blizkrieg Against the USSR, 1941.’

In this, he quotes the Chief of the General Staff of the Red Army during the Second World War, Marshal Aleksandr Vasilevsky, remarking that, but for the repressions of 1937, ‘the war of 1941 might not have happened at all’.

(See http://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/Blitzkrieg%20Final.pdf .)

The current holder of the position once held by Vasilevsky is General Valery Gerasimov. As Chief of the General Staff, he has overall control of the GRU.

Besides betraying a fundamental ignorance of the history of relations between the military and the ‘organs’ in Soviet times, the notion that the metadata of Dzerzhinsky could be easily identified by the likes of Matt Tait in an operation for which Gerasimov is responsible requires one to believe that he would put a key operation in the hands of incompetents.

So we have, I think, further evidence that GCHQ is, at the least, complicit in a ‘false flag’ operation.

Unfortunately, they failed to coordinate with MI6 – the claims about the supposed Russian role in hacking the DNC and other organisations in the dossier published by ‘BuzzFeed’ in January both contradict those made by Alperovitch and Tait, and are also self-contradictory.

Summarising accounts from ‘informants’ – real or fictional – a memorandum dated 15 July 2015 (it seems Orbis Business Intelligence doesn’t proof-read) explains:

‘Russia has extensive programme of state-sponsored offensive cyber operations. External targets include foreign governments and big corporations, especially banks. FSB leads on cyber within Russian apparatus. Limited success in attacking top foreign targets like G7 governments, security services and IFIs but much more on second tier ones through IT back doors, using corporate and other visitors to Russia.’

So, the GRU is not involved, and in any case it would seem that the DNC probably wasn’t successfully penetrated. (This could be come from an actual source, for once, although I much doubt that the Russians have been that unsuccessful against ‘top foreign targets’.)

However, in the final memorandum, dated 15 December 2016, it was claimed that:

‘[Redacted: 39 characters] reported that over the period March-September 2016 a company/Webzilla and its affiliates had been using botnets and porn traffic to transmit viruses, plant bugs, steal data and conduct “altering operations” against the Democratic Party leadership. Entities linked to one Aleksei GUBAROV were involved and he and another hacking expert, both recruited under duress by the FSB, Seva KAPSUGOVICH, were significant players in this operation. In Prague. COHEN agreed contingency plans for various scenarios CO protect the operation. but in particular what was to be done in the event that Hillary CLINTON won the presidency.’

(For a searchable version of the dossier, see https://cryptome.org/2017/01/Steele-Trump.htm .)

Clearly, this contradicts the 15 July report.

Moreover, in their eagerness to incriminate Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen – who appears not to have been in Prague at the time in question – the author(s) of the dossier gave a massive hostage to fortune. Predictably, Aleksej Gubarev (note the transliteration he uses, quite different from that in the dossier) and his company XBT sued ‘BuzzFeed’ in Florida, and Christopher Steele in London.

Subsequently, the Alfa Group oligarchs – Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aveb and German Khan, also sued, as their company – again wrongly transliterated, Alpha’ – had also featured in one of the ‘BuzzFeed’ memoranda. It would seem to beggar belief that someone who had, it appears, been head of the MI6 Russia Desk between 2004 and 2009 could make such an elementary error about one of the most prominent Russian business groups. But hell, this is not the GRU, it’s MI6: we don’t expect competence.

At first, those who were behind this ‘information operation’ appear to have thought that publicising the relationship between Christopher Steele and Litvinenko would help them. When, shortly after the dossier was published, the former was named as its author, and promptly disappeared into hiding, the account of his career in the ‘Telegraph’, having among other things described how during his time in Moscow in the early ‘Nineties he ‘worked closely’ with Alex Younger, now head of MI6, explained that:

'His expertise on Russia remained valued, and he was selected as case officer for the FSB defector Alexander Litvinenko, whose state-sponsored assassination in 2006 affected him deeply.'

(See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/christopher-steelethe-former-british-spy-created-donald-trump/ .)

However, when Steele emerged out of hiding in March, the ‘Guardian’ gave a different version:

'Several of the lurid stories about him that have appeared in the press have been wrong, said friends. The stories include claims that Steele met Alexander Litvinenko, the Russian dissident who was murdered in 2006 with a radioactive cup of tea, probably on Putin’s orders.

'As head of MI6’s Russia desk, Steele led the inquiry into Litvinenko’s polonium poisoning, quickly concluding that this was a Russian state plot. He did not meet Litvinenko and was not his case officer, friends said.'

(See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/christopher-steelethe-former-british-spy-created-donald-trump/ .)

Likewise, claims about the role of the former British Moscow Ambassador Sir Andrew Wood, who showed the dossier to John McCain, are contradictory.

As a ‘Fox News’ report on 9 June noted, in the ‘Defence’ submitted by Steele in response to the ‘Particulars of Claim’ submitted on behalf of Gubarev and XBT, Wood is described as ‘an Associate of Orbis.’ (Their report links to both documents.) In this capacity, it is suggested, he was aware of Steele’s ‘intelligence gathering for the pre-election memoranda.’

According to ‘Fox News’, however, in e-mail exchanges on 6 June, Wood ‘told a different story’:

'“I have had no professional relationship with Orbis,” he wrote. “You refer to me as an ‘Associate’ (capital A) and draw some conclusions as to my role, which go beyond what it has been, that of a friend to Christopher Steele and a person among others with whom I have from time to time discussed Russian affairs.”'

(See http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/06/09/comey-testimony-leaves-questions-unanswered-about-anti-trump-dossier.html .

What you have is a bunch of incompetent and corrupt British officials who are now having to confront the possibility that their claims made be tested in front of judges less patently biased than Sir Robert Owen.

Unsurprisingly, ‘BuzzFeed’ are cooperating with elements in British and American intelligence in a massive exercise in mendacity designed to save all their skins.

Don’t be fooled.

rkka

Indeed, the Anglosphere Foreign Policy Elite & Punditocracy (AFPE&P) pine for the days of the compliant government of Boris Yeltsin. As Leon Aron of the American Enterprise Institute put it, when his American 'partners' told him to do something, first he would yell& shout, then he would pout & sulk, and then he would cave in. You could count on it. And the fact that Russians were dying off at the rate of a million/year during the 'FreeMarketDemocraticReforms' bothered no one with any clout among the AFPE&P.

But now that the 'FreeMarketDemocraticReformers' have been deprived of power and Dick Cheney's golden boy Mikhail Khodorkovsky the convicted tax fraud has been deprived of his Russian assets before he could sell half of them to Exxon-Mobile, and Russian power has recovered, the AFPE&P are in a permanent star of fury agains Putin & all his works.

Kooshy

Thank you for asking
Back in 1980 primary ,Teddy was running against Jimmy, it was just after the Iranian revolution and Shah was going country to country begging for a home, if I remember correctly, Teddy’ campaign was the first questioning “who lost Iran” blaming Carter for losing Iran to the revolution. In that I mean American politicians across the party lines including the ones they weren’t even burn at time, blame Iranian revolution for taking part of America from them (they took our Iran). This group feeling on Iran, has now become a chronicle part of the American mentality. And that’s the main reason why American policy on Iran wouldn’t change, the exact opposite to this is the American feeling for Israel. BTW the new SOS Trex just announced US policy on Iran is now officially regime change and reversing the revolution.
https://thinkprogress.org/tillerson-calls-for-regime-change-in-iran-ad2ded82f945

plantman

This appeared this morning on almasdar news. It looks like the SDF is trying to block the SAA from retaking Deir Ezzor, which means there could be face off between the two armies. Colonel, do you think this could be important?

News: According to a military source, if the Syrian Democratic Forces continue to push south towards the strategic town of Resafa, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will open fire on them because this would be a clear attempt by the US-backed forces to cut them off from the road to Deir Ezzor.

By cutting off the Syrian Army from the road to Deir Ezzor, the US-backed forces will have access to several oil fields that are desperately wanted by the Syrian government.

Since the US-backed rebels failed to slow the Syrian Army down in southern Syria, the US is now relying on the Kurdish forces to obstruct Damascus’ expansion eastward.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/important-development-us-backed-forces-push-south-raqqa-cutoff-syrian-army-deir-ezzor/

Croesus

Iran had been one of Israel's key pillars in its periphery doctrine.

1. Ronen Bergman wrote in "Thirty Years War" how destabilized Israel was when it was shut out of its former intimate access to Iranian politics and finance. Bergman wrote that Israel had learned to resolve such an intelligence blockage by selling arms to a state, despite its adversarial status. Such a relationship re-opened access to Iran's most private and crucial decision-making. (The JCPOA also provides for Israel & USA a very wide window into Iran, via IAEA. Let's not be naive that IAEA keeps its findings confidential, or that only nuclear matters are the subject of surveillance).

2. Two years ago Yossi Alpher analyzed the present status of Israel's periphery doctrine. Two things he said were striking:
a. Israel was moving closer to Saudi Arabia, to protect its periphery; and
b. Israel's "loss" of Iran strikes to the heart of Israeli zionist identity. In an interview Bruce Reidel asked Alpher to expand on Israel's "Iran nostalgia, the desire to get back to the good old days."
Alpher responded:

"[Many senior Israelis] . . . believe to this day that the Islamic Republic is an aberration and a temporary one, and if you somehow push the right military or sanctions button or whatever, they will fall and the good guys will come back to power. . . .

We Israelis, again, back to that isolation -- we Israelis, to this day, have a need to -- a deep need to be recognized and accepted by the region. You see, Bibi’s demand, which is supported by most Israelis, that the Palestinians recognize us as a Jewish state, or the state of the Jewish people -- the nation-state of the Jewish people -- this goes way back, this need to be recognized. It explains our relationships with some of the Christian and Kurdish and Druze minorities as well, and so at the height of the periphery doctrine, when things are going well, there’s this sense that the ancient peoples of the Middle East have created an alliance, the people who precede the Arabs, okay. We go back with Iran, we just celebrated Purim, all right, we go back 2,600 years with Iran. The Egyptian, the Ethiopian national narrative is King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba.

So, this is almost a biblical -- a new biblical chapter.

This is how some people in Israel felt.

. . . Everybody in Tehran and in Addis and in Ankara were cynical practitioners of realpolitik. They did not reciprocate. They said, we kidded ourselves that they did. And we still do to this day, because if you believe that . . . -- we are somehow Middle Eastern, ancient blood brothers, then who’s Khomeini? This wasn’t meant to be."

According to Alpher, it is part of the Israeli identity that they share the legacy of Iran, but Khomeini is an interloper. Overturning the Islamic revolution Khomeini led will reaffirm the Iran-linked identity of Israeli Jews. This is neither military nor geopolitical, it is a psychodynamic.


The Beaver

FWIW: As it happened

1. 31/01/2011: In interview with Wall Street Journal, Bashar al-Assad suggested that Syria was immune to what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

2. 17/2/2011: Dozens chant “Syrian people will not be humiliated” in an unprecedented protest in Damascus after shopkeeper is beaten by police

3.28/2/2011: 13 opposition activists killed by regime while smuggling injured out of Homs, including British journalist Paul Conroy

4.15/03/ 2011: In an unprecedented protest in Damascus, dozens chanted “Syria is free!” as they march through Souk al-Hamidiyyah.

5. 8/3/2011: Anti-regime uprising erupts from Daraa w/ protests against arrest of schoolchildren for anti-regime graffiti. Two protesters killed

6.19/3/2011: Thousands in Daraa participated in funeral of Hussam Ayyash & Mahmood Jawabra, 1st protesters to be killed in anti-regime uprising

7. 23/03/2011: Security forces storm #Daraa’s al-Omari mosque, focus of anti-regime protests. 9 protesters killed; dozens arrested.

8. 24/3/2011: SAG promised reforms incl. potential lifting of emergency law in press conference by Presidential spokeswoman Buthaina Shabaan

9.25/03/2011: Anti-govt protests spread to several Syrian cities. For 1st time, a statue of Hafez al-Assad in #Daraa is destroyed.

10. 30/03/2011: In 1st speech since anti-Assad protests began, Assad speaks of a foreign conspiracy, says no reform under pressure.

11.31/03/ 2011: SAG said that it will form committees to investigate deaths during Daraa protests, and to study lifting emergency law.

12. 6 /04/ 2011: SAG released hundreds of prisoners, raised salaries of public employees, revoked ban on veiled teachers in public schools.

---------
upheavals continued and Syrian opposition had long known that an American military intervention on their side had highest odds of toppling Assad for them but that hope was dashed on 18th August 2011 when POTUS decided to state where his administration stood wrt the then 3 months old war
:

"For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step ASIDE".......not GO or DOWN.

but the Borg and the R2P crowd heard something else and we saw:

24/2/2012: “Friends of Syria” group holds first meeting in Tunis, supports Arab peace plan, calls for safe passage for humanitarian aid.

The Beaver

FWIW: As it happened

1. 31/01/2011: In interview with Wall Street Journal, Bashar al-Assad suggested that Syria was immune to what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

2. 17/2/2011: Dozens chant “Syrian people will not be humiliated” in an unprecedented protest in Damascus after shopkeeper is beaten by police

3.28/2/2011: 13 opposition activists killed by regime while smuggling injured out of Homs, including British journalist Paul Conroy

4.15/03/ 2011: In an unprecedented protest in Damascus, dozens chanted “Syria is free!” as they march through Souk al-Hamidiyyah.

5. 8/3/2011: Anti-regime uprising erupts from Daraa w/ protests against arrest of schoolchildren for anti-regime graffiti. Two protesters killed

6.19/3/2011: Thousands in Daraa participated in funeral of Hussam Ayyash & Mahmood Jawabra, 1st protesters to be killed in anti-regime uprising

7. 23/03/2011: Security forces storm #Daraa’s al-Omari mosque, focus of anti-regime protests. 9 protesters killed; dozens arrested.

8. 24/3/2011: SAG promised reforms incl. potential lifting of emergency law in press conference by Presidential spokeswoman Buthaina Shabaan

9.25/03/2011: Anti-govt protests spread to several Syrian cities. For 1st time, a statue of Hafez al-Assad in #Daraa is destroyed.

10. 30/03/2011: In 1st speech since anti-Assad protests began, Assad speaks of a foreign conspiracy, says no reform under pressure.

11.31/03/ 2011: SAG said that it will form committees to investigate deaths during Daraa protests, and to study lifting emergency law.

12. 6 /04/ 2011: SAG released hundreds of prisoners, raised salaries of public employees, revoked ban on veiled teachers in public schools.

---------
upheavals continued and Syrian opposition had long known that an American military intervention on their side had highest odds of toppling Assad for them but that hope was dashed on 18th August 2011 when POTUS decided to state where his administration stood wrt the then 3 months old war
:

"For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step ASIDE".......not GO or DOWN.

but the Borg and the R2P crowd heard something else and we saw:
---------------
24/2/2012: “Friends of Syria” group holds first meeting in Tunis, supports Arab peace plan, calls for safe passage for humanitarian aid.

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